The Week That Was: 2024 10-12 (October 12, 2024)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “Nobody’s honest. Scientists are not honest. And people usually believe that they are. That makes it worse. By honest I don’t mean that you only tell what’s true. But you make clear the entire situation. You make clear all the information that is required for somebody else who is intelligent to make up their mind. — Richard Feynman, “The Unscientific Age” in The Meaning of It All. [Repeated from last week]
Number of the Week: 0.00008% Green
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: This Week discusses questionable claims about Hurricanes Helene and Milton and points out that it is the temperature or pressure gradient that makes storms fierce, not temperature or pressure alone. The political nature of the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group at the Imperial College, London is exposed. Roy Spencer’s practical comments on the hurricane season are presented. Examples of the decline in critical thinking in Washington, the UK, and supporting the misnamed Inflation Reduction Act are presented. Judith Curry states that the UN IPCC and its collaborators are driven by politics, not science, as there is a great deal of uncertainty in the science. Unfortunately, Richard Courtney has died. Useful speculation by John Christy and Roy Spencer on why a La Niña has not appeared is presented. The formation of temporary lakes in the Sahara is mentioned.
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Gradient, not Temperature: Imagine a box that contains air at some given temperature and pressure. The air is still, no matter how hot or cold the air is and no matter whether the pressure is high or low. Now change the temperature of one wall, and the temperature gradient will cause the air to move around. Similarly, fierce storms are driven by the temperature and/or pressure gradients—changes over distance—not temperature or pressure alone. Fierce storms are driven by the temperature (pressure) gradient, not temperature (or pressure) alone.
Pressure is directly proportional to temperature at constant volume. [ PV = NRT.] If fierce storms were driven by temperature alone, there would be no explanation for storms such as the Great Blizzard of 1888 which killed more than 400 people from the Chesapeake Bay to Maine or the fierce storms that swept the Great Plains in the 1880s when cattle as far south as Texas froze to death. For that matter if fierce storms are driven by heat, there is no explanation for the fierce winter storms that occur in the Arctic and Antarctic regions during their winters.
Every climate model and satellite data also show the North Pole warming faster than the tropics, thereby decreasing the temperature gradient in the Northern Hemisphere. It is patently illogical to conclude that the likelihood of extreme weather events is increasing because of “climate change.” This difference between gradient, change over distance, temperature is lost in the current fad of blaming global warming for extreme weather events, such as hurricanes Helene or Milton. For example, the World Weather Attribution, a group based at the Imperial College of London immediately calculated a percentage probability that Helene was more intense due to global warming. As the Independent (UK) stated:
“Florida twice as likely to be hit by hurricanes like Helene thanks to climate crisis.
The high sea temperatures that fueled Hurricane Helene were made 200-500 times more likely by the climate crisis, scientists find.”
According to the report its main findings are [boldface added]:
● “Hurricane Helene formed in the Gulf of Mexico above record-hot sea surface temperatures (SSTs). In the days leading up to Helene’s landfall, a line of slow-moving storms formed along a stalled cold front, drawing in tropical moisture from Helene’s outer edges. This system, stretching from Atlanta through the southern Appalachian region, led to very heavy rainfall in the southern states and Appalachia even before the heavy rainfall associated with Helene arrived, leading to devastating flooding. Overall, at least 227 people died, the highest death toll from a hurricane in the mainland US since Katrina in 2005.
● In addition to the very heavy rainfall caused by the hurricane, and the preceding rain event, the steepness of the terrain funneled rainwater into rivers and streams leading to extremely sudden flash flooding as high as rooftop levels making evacuations impossible in many regions.
● In today’s climate, that has already been warmed by 1.3 °C due primarily to the burning of fossil fuels, weather observations indicate that rainfall events as severe as those brought by hurricane Helene now occur about once every 7 (3 – 25) years in the coastal region, and about once every 70 (20 – 3000) years in the inland region.
● To determine the role of climate change in the rainfall we combine observations with climate models. In both regions, the rainfall was about 10% heavier due to climate change, and equivalently the rainfall totals over the 2-day and 3-day maxima were made about 40% and 70% more likely by climate change, respectively. If the world continues to burn fossil fuels, causing global warming to reach 2 °C above preindustrial levels, devastating rainfall events in both regions will become another 15-25 % more likely.
● The IRIS model was used to investigate Helene’s strong winds by analyzing storms making landfall within 2 degrees of Helene. By statistically modelling storms in a 1.3°C cooler climate, this model showed that climate change was responsible for an increase of about 150% in the number of such storms (now once every 53 years on average, up from every 130 years), and equivalently that the maximum wind speeds of similar storms are now about 6.1 m/s (around 11%) more intense.
● The environmental conditions leading to a storm of Helene’s intensity were also studied. Using the same approach as for rainfall, we find that climate change increased the potential intensity in September around the track of Helene increased strongly in likelihood by a factor of 18. Using the Ocean Climate Shift Index, we find that the sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the track of the storm have been made about 200-500 times more likely due to the burning of fossil fuels.
● Together, these findings show that climate change is enhancing conditions conducive to the most powerful hurricanes like Helene, with more intense rainfall totals and wind speeds. This is in line with other scientific findings that Atlantic tropical cyclones are becoming wetter under climate change and undergoing more rapid intensification.
● Hurricane Helene was very well forecast with the national agency NOAA urging media to warn people of “catastrophic and life-threatening” flooding and landslides across the Southern Appalachians. People in affected coastal regions were asked to evacuate ahead of the landfall of Helene. However, most of the deaths occurred farther inland, in the mountainous terrain where challenges such as spotty cell and internet services, limited experience with Hurricanes and more limited evacuation infrastructure have been reported in the media as leaving people feeling caught off guard.
● Along the inland path of Hurricane Helene, a network of dams, and drainage systems exists, that has long been identified as highly exposed to hazards and in a general state of disrepair. A catastrophic dam failure was ultimately avoided, despite evacuations downstream of at least 3 dams warning of potential failure. However, current flood protection infrastructure is not accounting for heavy rain cascading into landslides and mudslides in mountainous regions, as happened in the inland region leading to the destruction of homes, businesses, and roads.”
The claims of being able to calculate probabilities are absurd. They have no theoretical basis for making such claims. Claims such as “about once every 70 (20 – 3000) years in the inland region” are highly uncertain given the scarcity of records. They are just invented using models that fail rigorous testing. Similarly, WWA came out with a “flash” report on Hurricane Milton which includes unsubstantiated claims.
Not to be outdone, Live Science produced an article on how strong hurricanes can get stating:
“But that may change in the coming decades as oceans warm and the climate changes. Already, the potential for strong storms has been rising over the past 30 years, said Kerry Emanuel, an emeritus professor of atmospheric science at MIT who developed the model.”
As we noted above, the Arctic is warming faster than the rest of Earth. [Antarctic temperatures vary wildly but show no trend.] Thus, the temperature gradient in the Northern Hemisphere is being reduced, not increased, making weather more benign, less severe. But this annoying detail is ignored. As with most alarmists, the global warming chorus will say anything, expecting the public to believe them because they are “scientists.” See links under Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda and Models v. Observations.
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Politics Not Science: Writing in the Daily Sceptic, Chris Morrison states:
“Dr. Friederike Otto runs World Weather Attribution (WWA) out of Imperial College London and is a frequent presence on the BBC. WWA is behind many of the immediate attributions of bad weather to human causes and its motives are clear. As Dr. Otto has noted: ‘Unlike every other branch of climate science or science in general, event attribution was actually originally suggested with the courts in mind.’ Otto is clear that the main function of such studies, part-funded by Net Zero-supporting billionaires and heavily pushed by aligned mainstream media, is to support lawsuits against fossil fuel companies. She explains this strategy in detail in the interview, ‘From Extreme Event Attribution to Climate Litigation.’” [Boldface added]
This is but one more example of how far “climate scientists” have strayed from physical evidence to political influence. See links under Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
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Practical Comments: Possibly the most practical comments on this hurricane season came from Roy Spencer who wrote [boldface added]:
“Florida residents must feel like they have been taking a beating from major hurricanes in recent years, but what does the data show?
The problem with human perception of such things is that the time scale of hurricane activity fluctuations is often longer than human experience. For example, a person born in the 1950s would have no memory of the beating Florida took in the 1940s from major hurricanes (a total of 5). But they would have many memories of the hurricane lull period of the 1970s and 1980s, each decade having only one major hurricane strike in Florida. Then, when an upswing in hurricane strikes occurs, it seems very unusual to them, and they assume that “hurricanes are getting worse.”
Another problem is that any statistics for an area as small as Florida, even over 100+ years, will be pretty noisy. Landfalling hurricanes for the eastern U.S. would be a better metric. And statistics for the entire Atlantic basin would be even better, except that satellite coverage didn’t start until the 1970s and hurricane intensity in remote areas before then would be poorly measured (or not measured at all).
Finally, tropical cyclone statistics for the entire tropics would be the best (if one were trying to determine if climate change is impacting cyclone intensity or frequency). But satellite data for the global tropics is, again, limited to the period since the 1970s. Global tropical cyclone data before the 1970s is sketchy, at best.
So, keeping in mind that any trends we see for Florida are going to be strongly influenced by the “luck of the draw” and the quasi-random nature of hurricane tracks (hurricanes are steered by the large-scale flow of air in the mid-troposphere, say around 20,000 ft altitude or so), what are the statistics of Florida major hurricane intensity and frequency since 1900?”
Spencer supports his assertions with data showing the intensity and number of hurricanes hitting Florida since 1900. After additional discussion including “Evidence for Long-Term Hurricane Fluctuations Unrelated to Water Temperature” Spencer concludes:
“The point is that there is a huge amount of natural decadal- to centennial-time scale variability in hurricane activity in Florida (or any other hurricane-prone state). But with increasing numbers of people thinking that the government is somehow influencing hurricane activity (I’m seeing a lot of this on Twitter), I doubt that actual data will have much influence on those people, and as I approach 70 years on this Earth, I have noticed a long-term decline in critical thinking regarding weather, climate, and causation. I doubt that trend will change any time soon.”
In a post Paul Homewood quotes Spencer stating:
Hurricane Milton wind speeds at landfall: Another case of exaggerated estimates? I went through all the highest sustained wind speeds the Hurricane Center listed for several hours around landfall time: The average observed by stations was 67 mph, and the average of the NHC [National Hurricane Center] official value was 114 mph. That’s a 47-mph difference. The best positioned station was just offshore of Venice Beach, which measured 78 mph at landfall, which was 42 mph lower than the NHC estimate (120 mph). The same thing happened with Helene: our UAH storm intercept team measured only 60 mph at landfall, whereas the NHC value was 140 mph.
There is good reason for the National Hurricane Center to be cautious when a hurricane is approaching landfall, but to exaggerate the wind speed at landfall by 50% is inappropriate. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Decline in Critical Thinking: Washington is on the forefront of what Spencer calls a long-term decline in critical thinking regarding weather, climate, and causation. Paul Homewood provides a link to a hearing with Louisiana Senator Joseph Kennedy questioning a US Deputy Secretary of Energy on the benefits of spending $50 Trillion on net zero and curbing greenhouse gases. The response is completely devoid of any critical thinking. Just spend the money and the benefits will come?
As stated in an article in the Wall Street Journal, in fiscal 2024, which ended September 30, US government tax revenue increased by 11% or $479 billion to $4.92 trillion. But US government spending also increased by 11% or $699 billion to $6.75 trillion resulting in an annual deficit $1.83 trillion. The biggest non-surprise is that net interest on the debt held by the public soared 34%, or $240 billion. This is occurring without an active war, or real national crisis, just the false claim of a climate crisis or climate emergency. Just spend the money and the benefits will come? See link under Energy Issues – US and Article # 2.
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Decline in Critical Thinking – UK: Not to be outdone in the failure to think critically, the new UK Labour government is floating numerous ridiculous ideas for generating reliable, affordable electricity. The reliability of the current system is near the brink of failure as consumer electricity costs are skyrocketing because the UK is further along in implementing the disastrous policy of net zero carbon dioxide emissions than the US.
Among the crop of new absurd schemes are the use of flywheels and widespread pumped storage to avoid long-term blackouts. Paul Homewood links to an excellent video by Paul Burgess discussing flywheels which are used to steady the frequency of electricity sent to the grid, but not for long-term storage. It appears that many political “experts” do not know the difference between a kilowatt (a unit of power) and a kilowatt hour (a unit of energy). A kilowatt (kW) measures the rate at which a device uses or generates power. A kilowatt-hour (kWh) measures the amount of electrical energy used or generated during some time period measured in hours.
Flywheels store little energy and are useful for smoothing out power over small units of time to control frequency for stability. How much energy do flywheels store and how long do they last? Paul Burgess discusses one example in New York State. The storage facility can store one megawatt (MW) for 15 minutes? This is one-quarter of a megawatt hour (MWh). New York City uses about 5,500 MW on average with about 10,000 MW in the summer with air conditioning. The cost of storage for one hour is prohibitive, much less the cost of storage for the summer. “New York State is currently pursuing two major green energy infrastructure projects to power New York City with wind, solar and hydropower from upstate New York and Canada, and the City committed to purchasing power from these projects for City operations.” How much these projects will cost is not estimated, just claims of “10,000 family-sustaining jobs statewide and bring $8.2 billion in economic development investments.”
Pumped hydro storage is a proven technology with about 70% efficiency. It has been used since the 1920s. However, it is proven using reliable coal and nuclear power plants for replenishment. It has not been proven using wind and solar power for replenishment. Storage of wind and solar power have failed at El Hierro (Canary Islands) and King Island (off Tasmania). It is highly doubtful if pumped storage can meet the requirements of a modern civilization such as the UK.
See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, Energy Issues – Non-US, and https://climate.cityofnewyork.us/subtopics/systems/#:~:text=On%20average%2C%20NYC%20uses%20about,as%20much%20as%2010%2C000%20megawatts.
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Decline in Critical Thinking – IRA: The misnamed Inflation Reduction Act is clearly becoming an excuse for Washington squandering money. The Wall Street Journal reports “Big Oil Urges Trump Not to Gut Biden’s Climate Law: Oil companies try to persuade Trump and his Republican allies not to slash provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act potentially worth billions.” The article begins with:
“Oil companies are conveying an unlikely message to the GOP and its presidential candidate: Spare President Biden’s signature climate law. At least the parts that benefit the oil industry.
In discussions with former President Trump’s campaign and his allies in Congress, oil giants including Exxon Mobil, Phillips and Occidental Petroleum have extolled the benefits of the Inflation Reduction Act. Many in the fossil-fuel industry opposed the law when it passed in 2022 but have come to love provisions that earmark billions of dollars for low-carbon energy projects they are betting on.
Some executives in the largely pro-Trump oil industry are worried the former president, if re-elected, would side with conservative lawmakers who want to gut the IRA. They fear losing tax credits vital for their investments in renewable fuel, carbon capture and hydrogen, costly technologies requiring U.S. support to survive their early years.”
When big oil supports schemes supposedly designed to replace big oil, it becomes clear that the law and its supporters are duping the consumer. See Article # 1.
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Politics Not Science: Michael Cambell of Money Talks has an illuminating interview of Judith Curry who discusses the importance of acknowledging uncertainty in climate science, critiques the behavior of activist scientists, and emphasizes the need for a balanced approach to energy solutions that includes fossil fuels and nuclear power. She also highlights the ethical implications of energy access for developing nations and advocates for a bottom-up approach to climate solutions. Charles Rotter of WUWT provided the transcript which begins with:
“Dr. Curry: uh yeah there’s two issues. One was this issue was very narrowly framed by the United Nations, focused on dangerous human-caused climate change. They ignored natural climate variability that was marginalized, and they assumed warming was dangerous without considering any benefits of increased CO2 or increased warming or considering the regional variability of impacts. You know, Northern climates would generally benefit from more warmth, for example. So, it was framed very narrowly in an inappropriate way to support a particular political agenda.
Okay, with that context then, you know, scientists quickly realized that their path to fame and fortune was to embellish this narrative, you know, by cherry-picking the science, the data, and everything else—all to support this particular narrative. So yes, a lot of overconfidence, neglect of uncertainty, and in general just weak justification of many of their arguments.” [Boldface added.] See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Richard Courtney, RIP: TWTW is saddened to report that after a long bout with cancer, Richard Courtney has died. Ever gracious, this gentleman willingly shared his views with others. He was urbane, articulate, and very preceptive.
As the Head of Research for the Coal Board in the UK, Courtney recognized early on that once the issues of “acid rain” were solved by using physical evidence and modern scrubbers to remove sulfur dioxide from coal-fired power plants, the next issue would be dangerous global warming from carbon dioxide emissions based on highly speculative work by chemist Svante Arrhenius in the late 1800s. Arrhenius misunderstood the work of spectroscopy pioneer John Tyndall and later modified his opinions. But the speculation continues today by the UN IPCC and its collaborators.
Richard Courtney was a great help to TWTW in articulating complex issues regarding global warming and the motives of those involved. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy – RIP Richard Courtney.
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Useful Speculation: A perplexing issue is: why are atmospheric temperatures remaining high after the last El Niño, why hasn’t a La Niña set in? John Christy and Roy Spencer offer their speculative views in the Global Temperature Report by the Earth System Science Center, UAH. They write:
“This year’s recent global temperature changes continue to surprise us as September’s value rose from August to +0.96 °C (+1.73°F). After reaching a peak in April, which is fairly common for El Niño years, the value fell through June, but then began, unexpectedly, to gradually rise from there. This makes September 2024 warmer than last September and thus the warmest September in the satellite record (April 2024 is still the warmest single month at +1.05°C). Heads are scratching as we look to various explanations as to why the 2023-24 El Niño did not cool off as had been the case in the previous events. Often mentioned is the Hunga Tonga underwater volcano in January 2022 (at this point the largest volcanic eruption in the 21st century) that launched tremendous amounts of water vapor into the stratosphere to possibly create a greenhouse blanket that prevents heat energy from exiting the planet as efficiently as usual. However, the jury is still out on that one. We are also checking on any unaccounted-for satellite instrument drift that may have occurred.
The slght increase in September’s warmth over August is seen most strongly over the Northern Hemisphere’s land masses which achieved a record anomaly of +1.53 °C which in turn boosted the global land anomaly to +1.39 °C, slightly warmer than last month’s record of +1.35 °C. While the La Niña cooling still continues somewhat in the tropical Pacific Ocean waters, the remaining parts of the globe have not yet participated. To see the latest on the La Niña see: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-statusfcsts-web.pdf.
One may pause for a thought experiment here. The global average tropospheric temperature departure in Jan 2023 was -0.03 °C and the peak was reached in Apr 2024 at +1.05°C. There are about 8,000 kg of air in the troposphere over an average area of 1 m2. Given the specific heat of dry air, this indicates that between Jan 2023 and Apr 2024 the troposphere above each 1 m2 of earth gained a net of about 8 million extra joules of energy (relative to normal) which increased the temperature about 1 °C. Since the impact of CO2 on the energy budget was essentially constant in these 16 months, what caused the increase? Most of those joules likely came from the El Niño-warmed ocean temperatures, but without that warmth since April (the tropical Pacific has cooled somewhat) why is the atmosphere still so warm, particularly over the continents? Were there fewer clouds that allowed extra joules as sunlight to enter the climate system? Is there a lingering impact from the submarine volcano Hunga Tonga which injected water vapor into the stratosphere, reducing the normal rate of energy lost to space? Or, also quite likely, is there some unidentified process that alters the heat balance in the atmosphere that we are missing? Interesting questions.” [Boldface added]
[TWTW editor Howard “Cork” Hayden examined their calculations of atmospheric mass at sea-level air pressure and found they are right.]
These are issues for which there are no easy answers, particularly are we missing some yet unidentified process that alters the heat balance in the atmosphere? Hopefully with time, Nature will reveal more. See link under Measurement Issues – Atmosphere.
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Amusing Aside: P Gosselin reports an article by NASA that reveals that cloud bursts over the Sahara have resulted in lakes re-appearing in basins of the desert. This is not to say that swimmable lakes and rivers will soon return to the Sahara along with crocodiles, hippopotamus, and other creatures depicted in cave drawings in the desert. But it is one more indication that we do not understand the climate and the weather as well as many bureaucrats and politicians pretend. See link under: Changing Weather
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Number of the Week: 0.00008% Green. With great fanfare, the University of Exeter reported that the Antarctic is greening at a dramatic rate. Tony Heller did some investigation and found that the abstract of the paper in Nature Geoscience “Sustained greening of the Antarctic Peninsula observed from satellites” stated:
“Analysis of Landsat archives (1986–2021) using a Google Earth Engine cloud-processing workflow suggest widespread greening across the Antarctic Peninsula. The area of likely vegetation cover increased from 0.863 km2 in 1986 to 11.947 km2 in 2021, with an accelerated rate of change in recent years (2016–2021: 0.424 km2 yr−1) relative to the study period (1986–2021: 0.317 km2 yr−1). This trend echoes a wider pattern of greening in cold-climate ecosystems in response to recent warming, suggesting future widespread changes in the Antarctic Peninsula’s terrestrial ecosystems and their long-term functioning.” [Boldface added]
The land mass of the Antarctic continent is about 5.275 million square miles or about 14.2million square km. Thus, Heller calculates that the area being covered by moss in the sustained greening is about 0.00008% of the Antarctic land mass. Further, the area in question is outside of the Antarctic Circle. This is compelling physical evidence of what?
Commentary: Is the Sun Rising?
Never mind the sun
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 9, 2024
So, the science of solar climate is anything but settled… just like here on Earth.
Severe Solar Storm Threatens Power Grid Amid Hurricane Helene, Milton Recovery
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Oct 10, 2024
https://www.powermag.com/severe-solar-storm-threatens-power-grid-amid-hurricane-helene-milton-recovery/?utm_source=omeda&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=pwrnews+eletter&oly_enc_id=7809H6412578J0B
Censorship
CPAC Australia 2024 – A New Climate Change Book, And Disturbing Statements on Free Speech
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 6, 2024
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-fossil-fuels/
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming/
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Challenging the Orthodoxy – Radiation Transfer
The Role of Greenhouse Gases in Energy Transfer in the Earth’s Atmosphere
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, Mar 3, 2023
Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, December 22, 2020
https://wvanwijngaarden.info.yorku.ca/files/2020/12/WThermal-Radiationf.pdf?x45936
Challenging the Orthodoxy
Florida Major Hurricanes, 1900-2024: What Do the Statistics Show?
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, Oct 7, 2024
Hurricane Milton’s Exaggerated Wind Speeds
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 10, 2024
Comment from Spencer.
The Politics of Climate Change with Dr. Judith Curry
Interview by Michael Cambell, Transcript by Charles Rotter, WUWT, Oct 12, 2024
The Ed Miliband Flywheel Myth
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 9, 2024
Paul Burgess has the best analysis I have seen of Miliband’s bonkers plan to use flywheels to avoid blackouts:
The Cost Of Miliband’s Flywheels
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 7, 2024
New Study: Cloud Changes ‘Are The Cause Of Changes In The Accumulated Solar Energy’
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Oct 7, 2024
Link to paper: Multiyear variability of cloud genera in Krakow in the context of changes in the thermal state of the North Atlantic
By Andrzej A. Marsz, Dorota Matuszko, Anna Styszyńska, International Journal of Climatology, Royal Meteorological Society, Feb 3, 2024
https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/joc.8376
Judith Curry On Climate Science And Policy
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 3, 2024
Video
New Study: Systematic Error In 1880-2020 Global Temperature Measurements Inflates Warming By 42%
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Oct 11, 2024
[SEPP Comment: The paper is submitted, not published. The preprint is:]
Correction of Systematic Error in Global Temperature Analysis Related to Aging Effects
By Mortz Busing, 2024
https://osf.io/preprints/osf/huxge
Hurricane Milton Preparation: Florida’s Unprecedented Response Under Governor DeSantis
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Oct 9, 2024
Challenging the Orthodoxy – RIP Richard Courtney
Richard Courtney has Passed Away
By Matthew Courtney, WUWT, Oct 11, 2024
Defending the Orthodoxy
It’s too late to save Britain from overheating, says UN climate chief Prof Jim Skea
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 6, 2024
“Jim Skea, chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), said a failure to sufficiently curb carbon emissions had left the world on track to warm by 3C by 2100.”
Why is the Telegraph publicizing this propaganda?
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Climate Activists Frustrated by IPCC’s Refusal to Link Extreme Weather With Carbon Emissions
By Chris Morrison, The Daily Sceptic, Oct 9, 2024
Link to: From Extreme Weather Attribution to Climate Litigation
A Conversation with Dr. Friederike Otto, Concordia University, Accessed Oct 9, 2024
Alarmists Attack IPCC Not Linking Disasters to CO2
By Ron Clutz, His Blog, Oct 9, 2024
Alarming climate study leads to search for solutions: Beat Check Podcast
By Gosia Wozniake, Oregon Live, Nov 13, 2023
https://www.oregonlive.com/environment/2023/11/alarming-climate-study-leads-to-search-for-solutions-beat-check-podcast.html?utm_campaign=theoregonian_sf&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook&fbclid=IwY2xjawF2dVVleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHeWF2Yun_pj-u6lX8M7FPZFPM8m_c9_3mQGBtFhbpPmlcH1vSVHcA3Mhaw_aem_bYCy7OwYCUgGVX1CQXE8dQ
Link to: The 2023 state of the climate report: Entering uncharted territory
By William J Ripple, et al., BioScience, December 2023
https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/article/73/12/841/7319571?login=false
Hellfire, brimstone and societal collapse coming at 6pm, say the “experts”
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 9, 2024
Link to article: Earth’s ‘vital signs’ show humanity’s future in balance, say climate experts
By Damien Carrington, The Guardian, Oct 8, 2024
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2024/oct/08/earths-vital-signs-show-humanitys-future-in-balance-say-climate-experts
Link to paper: The 2024 state of the climate report: Perilous times on planet Earth
By William J Ripple, Christopher Wolf, Jillian W Gregg, Johan Rockström, Michael E Mann, Naomi Oreskes, Timothy M Lenton, Stefan Rahmstorf, Thomas M Newsome, Chi Xu .et al. BioScience, Oct 8, 2024
https://academic.oup.com/bioscience/advance-article/doi/10.1093/biosci/biae087/7808595?login=false
Earth’s ‘vital signs’ show humanity’s future in balance, say climate experts
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 9, 2024
Who would have guesses COP29 is just around the corner?
[SEPP Comment: See link immediately above.
The UN’s Guterres Climate Propaganda and Misinformation at Climate Week in NY
By Frank Lasee, Real Clear Energy, Oct 9, 2024
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2024/10/09/the_uns_guterres_climate_propaganda_and_misinformation_at_climate_week_in_ny_1064110.html
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Are Hurricanes Getting Worse?
By Benjamin Zycher, Real Clear Energy, Oct 7, 2024
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2024/10/07/are_hurricanes_getting_worse_1063500.html
Energy Literacy for Policymakers: Wind and Solar do different things than Crude Oil!
By Ronald Stein and John Shanahan, Via Heartland Institute, Oct 11 2024
A Little Sprucing
Pennies don’t hold up dollars for very long.
By Doomberg, Oct 9, 2024
https://newsletter.doomberg.com/p/a-little-sprucing?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=343139&post_id=149974124&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=f7h7&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
[SEPP Comment: In 1916 it was excessive logging that caused the Ashville flood, now its excessive CO2?]
The fatal flaw in Artificial Intelligence: Climate Change?
By Leigh Haugen, Climate Etc., Oct 6, 2024 [H/t Claire Goldsberry]
In summary, the climate change agenda is not only a scientific and political farce; it is also an economic disaster with staggering opportunity costs.
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
Bell peppers and CO2
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 9, 2024
From the CO2Science archive:
Carbon Dioxide Fertilization Greening Earth, Study Finds
By Karl Hille, NASA, Apr 26, 2016 [H/t Frank Lasee]
Link no longer works, Likely paper: Greening of the Earth and its drivers
By Zaichun Zhu, et al., Nature, Climate Change, Apr 25, 2016
https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate3004
Problems in the Orthodoxy
#CheerfulCharts #10: Moore’s law
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 9, 2024
So, if the new world of processing power comes upon us, it’s going to need a lot of electricity, which is why the computing world is talking about nuclear, gas and even coal. This crowd knows what works and what doesn’t. And Moore power to them.
Former Google CEO on AI: “we’re not going to hit the climate goals anyway…”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Oct 9, 2024
Energy Giant Puts Goal To Drastically Cut Oil, Gas Production On Ice
By Owen Klinsky, Daily Caller, Oct 7, 2024
https://dailycaller.com/2024/10/07/bp-puts-goal-to-drastically-cut-oil-gas-production-on-ice
“Yes … definitely”
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Oct 10, 2024
[SEPP Comment: AI, garbage in, garbage out.]
Seeking a Common Ground
The Ethics of decarbonisation for the poor
Press Release, GWPF, Oct 10, 2024
Link to paper: The Ethics of Decarbonisation for the Poor
By V. Ismet Ugursal, GWPF, 2024
“Ouch!” DeSantis Savages Reporter Who Questions If Hurricanes Are Tied To Global Warming
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 11, 2024
Great to see Ron De Santis talking common sense about Hurricane Milton.
Video about 4 min in.
Models v. Observations
Hurricane Milton Has Deepened Rapidly into a Category Five Storm
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Oct 8, 2024
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/search?updated-max=2024-10-10T16:55:00-07:00&max-results=2
How strong can hurricanes get?
By Stephanie Pappas, Live Science, Oct 8, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/hurricanes/how-strong-can-hurricanes-get?utm_term=62553716-A9B2-4BFB-AE2A-38AF1E275D5A&lrh=98d551973ebd41dc0f60c6779089d8d635fddd35017b47a4e9d6ef2e759aad4b&utm_campaign=368B3745-DDE0-4A69-A2E8-62503D85375D&utm_medium=email&utm_content=712FDBC7-DC59-4B1E-A0E7-513CC9897A6A&utm_source=SmartBrief
Measurement Issues — Surface
Milton Propaganda
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Oct 10, 2024
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
Globa Temperature Report
Earth System Science Center, UAH, September 2024, Oct 4, 2024
Map: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2024/September/202409_Map.png
Chart: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2024/September/202409_Bar.png
Text: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2024/September/GTR_202409SEP_v1.pdf
Changing Weather
Greening: Rare, Heavy September Rainfalls Have Brought Back Lakes In The Sahara!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 9, 2024
Link to: A Deluge for the Sahara
By Adam Volland, NASA, Sep 10, 2024
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/153320/a-deluge-for-the-sahara
Why Hurricane Track Forecasts are Much Better that [Than] Intensity Predictions
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Oct 6, 2024
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2024/10/why-hurricane-track-forecasts-are-much.html
Hurricanes, then and now
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 9, 2024
The authors also ask whether they were mainly controlled by external causes like volcanic eruptions. Their answer is no, they seem to follow their own pacing based on internal climate variability. Even if no one quite understands how it works. Thus, hurricane counts vary over time for reasons that have nothing to do with us, and measures from throwing sacrificial victims into volcanoes to throwing CO2 into underground receptacles will not appease them.
Meet the 108-Year-Old 1916 Major Hurricane that Brought 8 Feet of Flood Water to Asheville, NC & Covered All of Biltmore
By Larry Hamlin, WUWT, Oct 8, 2024
Rapidly Intensifying Hurricanes
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Oct 8, 2024
Hurricane Milton
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 9, 2024
As Roy Spencer has pointed out, NHC forecaster tend to overestimate wind speeds, since they don’t want to be accused of underestimating the danger.
PRESS RELEASE: Hurricane Milton Historic, Not Unprecedented
By James Taylor, et al., The Heartland Institute, Oct 8, 2024
Heating Season Is Starting in Earnest EARLY This Fall Across Western Europe
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Oct 6, 2024
The CFS expects a somewhat cool and wet October across western Europe this year. Ground surface frost has already been widespread.
[The Climate Forecast System (CFS) models the interactions between Earth’s oceans, land, and atmosphere on a global scale. The model is produced by several dozen scientists under guidance from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and generates hourly data with a ½° horizontal resolution (approximately 56 km).]
By STAFF, NOAA, National Centers for Environmental Information, Accessed Oct 11, 2024
https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/weather-climate-models/climate-forecast-system
Changing Climate
Carbon isotope budget indicates biological disequilibrium dominated ocean carbon storage at the Last Glacial Maximum
By Anne Willen Omta, et al, Nature Communications, Sep 13, 2024 {H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-024-52360-z
Changing Seas
Massive Pacific Ocean Ignores Climate Alarmists Atlantic Ocean Hurricane Election Year Hype and “Falls Flat” – will the Alarmist Media ever Wake Up
By Larry Hamlin, WUWT, Oct 11, 2024
[SEPP Comment: A weak storm season for the North Pacific Ocean.]
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Arctic Shipping Ends Early Due to Growing Ice
By Ron Clutz, His Blog, Oct 7, 2024
“Antarctica has turned green”
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Oct 9, 2024
Link to press release: Antarctic ‘greening’ at dramatic rate
By Alex Morrison, University of Exeter, Oct 2024
Link to study: Sustained greening of the Antarctic Peninsula observed from satellites
By Thomas P. Roland, et al., Nature Geoscience, Oct 4, 2024
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-024-01564-5
Scientists looked at images from space to see how fast Antarctica is turning green. Here’s what they found
By Laura Paddison, Yahoo News, Oct 4, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://www.yahoo.com/news/scientists-looked-images-space-see-090038882.html
See link immediately above.
Heat transfer and meltwater flows in ice sheets
By Dan Hughes, Climate Etc., Oct 8, 2024
Link to: Heat Transfer and Melting of Ice in Embedded Channels
By Dan Hughes, Not published, September 2024
Lowering Standards
IEA: The World Is Not on Track to Triple Renewable Capacity by 2030
By Tsvetana Paraskova, Oil Price.com, Oct 9, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/IEA-The-World-Is-Not-on-Track-to-Triple-Renewable-Capacity-by-2030.html
Link to: Renewables 2024
By Staff, IEA, Oct 2024
https://www.iea.org/reports/renewables-2024
[SEPP Comment: Nameplate capacity is not productive capacity, particularly for solar and wind where production is usually 23% of nameplate capacity for solar and 35% for wind.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
Weather Attribution Alchemy
A new THB series takes a close look at extreme weather event attribution, Part 1
By Roger Pielke Jr., The Honest Broker, Oct 7, 2024
https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/weather-attribution-alchemy?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=119454&post_id=149917652&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=f7h7&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
Hurricane gotcha
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 9, 2024
The usual suspects are in the usual high dudgeon about Hurricane Helene, with one writer on UnHerd calling it “America’s Chernobyl moment” and for bad measure adding “bringing once-in-a-thousand-years levels of rainfall”.
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel Presents Master Class on Hurricane Milton and Climate Misinformation
By James Taylor, Climate Realism, Oct 10, 2024
Solar and Wind Energy Prices Plummet to Record Lows
By Felicity Bradstock, Oil Price.com, Oct 4, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Solar-Energy/Solar-and-Wind-Energy-Prices-Plummet-to-Record-Lows.html
[SEPP Comment: Shallow reporting, based on temporary negative pricing as costs to consumers increase? An obvious failure in government policies.]
Why tornadoes form within hurricanes — and how climate change could make it more common
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Oct 10, 2024
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4927302-hurricane-milton-tornadoes-climate-change
Tidbits
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 9, 2024
We don’t mind people having opinions, including media outlets. But when they don’t know they have them, we wonder what else they don’t know and realize it’s a deep pit.
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Hurricane Milton Update
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 10, 2024
“Biden calls Hurricane Milton ‘storm of the century’ in warning to Florida”
[SEPP Comment: Which century?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Climate-drive departures of sperm whales, jumbo squid from Gulf of California raise ecosystem concerns
By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, Oct 8, 2024
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4920383-sperm-whales-gulf-of-california-ecosystem-instability-study
Link to paper: The departure of sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus) in response to the declining jumbo squid (Dosidicus gigas) population in the central portion of the Gulf of California
By Héctor Pérez-Puig, et al., Biodiversity and Conservation, Oct 8, 2024
https://peerj.com/articles/18117
From abstract: As sperm whales are important predators that control energy flux in the oceans,…
[SEPP Comment: What??? Whales control energy flux of oceans???]
From article: Total Gulf of California catches, for example, went from more than 100,000 tons during a 1996-1997 La Niña pattern — characterized by calmer, milder weather — to 3,000 tons the next season, when the region was experiencing strong El Niño conditions. In 2018, jumbo squid catches reached an all-time low, clocking in at just 169 tons for the year.
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
Florida twice as likely to be hit by hurricanes like Helene thanks to climate crisis
The high sea temperatures that fueled Hurricane Helene were made 200-500 times more likely by the climate crisis, scientists find
By Alexa St. John and Stuti Mishra, Independent, UK, Oct 9, 2024 [H/t Carbon Brief]
https://www.independent.co.uk/climate-change/news/hurricane-helene-florida-damage-climate-crisis-b2626372.html?utm_source=cbnewsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=2024-10-11&utm_campaign=DeBriefed+Hurricane+Milton+BP+abandons+oil+reduction+target+Scotland+s+ancient+stone+circles+and+climate+change
Link to other article: Study: Climate change made deadly Hurricane Helene more intense
By Staff, AFP, Oct 9, 2024
https://www.voanews.com/a/study-climate-change-made-deadly-hurricane-helene-more-intense/7815932.html
Hurricane Helene’s torrential rain and powerful winds were made about 10% more intense due to climate change, according to a study published Wednesday by the World Weather Attribution (WWA) group.
Link to likely study: Climate change key driver of catastrophic impacts of Hurricane Helene that devastated both coastal and inland communities
By Ben Clarke, Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College, London, UK, et al., 2024
https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/handle/10044/1/115024
Climate change intensified Milton rainfall, strengthened winds: Researchers
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Oct 11, 2024
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4928942-climate-change-hurricane-milton-researchiers
Link to “flash” study, Yet another hurricane wetter, windier and more destructive because of climate change
By Staff, World Weather Attribution, Oct 11, 2024
https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/yet-another-hurricane-wetter-windier-and-more-destructive-because-of-climate-change
‘Catastrophic’ Hurricane Milton nears Florida, life-threatening storm surge expected
By Lauren Irwin, The Hill, Oct 9, 2024
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4923508-catastrophic-hurricane-milton-nears-florida
Link to National Hurricane Center (NHC) report: Hurricane Milton Public Advisory, 800 AM, EDT, Oct 9, 2024
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/090854.shtml
According to article: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has deemed Milton a dangerous Category 5 storm, the highest category tracked.
From NHC report: Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
[Boldface added]
Climate change linked to more intense hurricanes, an Oregon State study says
By Allison Gutleber, KATU Staff, Oct 9, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://www.katu.com/news/local/climate-change-linked-to-more-intense-hurricanes-oregon-state-university
Ryan Maue on Hurricane Hype
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Oct 8, 2024
[SEPP Comment: Exposing super hyperbole about a super storm from the usual suspects.]
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Biden administration designates first-ever Indigenous-proposed marine sanctuary
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Oct 11, 2024
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4928891-biden-administration-designates-first-ever-indigenous-proposed-marine-sanctuary
Questioning European Green
NZW: The whole green climate movement is now so corrupt
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 9, 2024
Video of Andrew Montford
Climate emergency is just an excuse for fleecing the public.
What Germany needs is an Energiewende
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 9, 2024
But actions have consequences, and actions stem from ideas, and the parlous state of the German economy, and that of Britain as well, can be traced with considerable certainty to their believing fairy tales about energy.
Gas Power Prevented A Blackout Yesterday
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 9, 2024
This incident highlights the foolhardiness of relying so much on imported electricity. At the moment, of course, we were able to plug the shortfall, presumably with gas.
The more we rely on I/C, the more we are vulnerable to these problems. And we won’t have gas power around to save us.
[SEPP Comment: The problem was with the Nordlink HVDC 1400 MW North Sea Link cable between Norway and UK.]
Anger at UK’s ‘bonkers’ plan to reach net zero by importing fuel from North Korea
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 9, 2024
“Government criticized over list of potential countries for sourcing biomass, which also includes Afghanistan.”
Green Jobs
ONS [Office for National Statistics] Reveals the Pitiful Number of New Green Jobs Being Created in the U.K. Economy
By Chris Morrison, Daily Sceptic, Sep 30, 2024 [H/t Ron Clutz]
Funding Issues
A quarter of US science funding is now “diversity, gender, race” based, class warfare research
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 11, 2024
Link to report: DEI: Division, Extremism, Ideology
By Staff, US Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, & Transportation, Ranking Member Ted Cruz, 2024
https://www.commerce.senate.gov/services/files/4BD2D522-2092-4246-91A5-58EEF99750BC
Ruling-class energy ignorance is a global wrecking ball
By Terry Etam, BOE Report, Oct 2, 2024
And yet…just a few weeks ago, Larry Summers made a comment about a bedrock of the economy seems so fundamentally bad that it is enough to shake one’s faith in every one of those institutions. He was talking about whether the US should create a Sovereign Wealth Fund, which is kind of like a national savings account that governments squirrel money into in order to fund future projects or spending requirements. They are very great things indeed, reflecting the wisdom of having savings for a rainy day, but given how politicians love to spend not just the money that they have but everything they can borrow, the idea seems kind of quaintly hopeless in the first place, even though some countries have accomplished it.
[SEPP Comment: The US has a $1.8 Trillion deficit this year.]
Litigation Issues
Regulation-By-Litigation Disregards the Democratic Process and Undermines the Fair Administration of Justice
By Anthony M. Anastasio & Alex R. Daniel, Real Clear Energy, Oct 7, 2024
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2024/10/07/regulation-by-litigation_disregards_the_democratic_process_and_undermines_the_fair_administration_of_justice_1063505.html
Moreover, the Rockefellers’ lawfare campaign is being subsidized by the American taxpayer. The private law firm supporting most of these cases, Sher Edling LLP, receives millions in tax-free donations from ideologically driven nonprofits, such as the Rockefeller Brothers Fund, to finance its efforts upfront. Sher Edling then goes on to represent clients like New Jersey on a contingency-fee basis, all the while taking on hardly any risk itself.
Supreme Court Passes on Chance to Block Two Aggressive Biden-Harris Climate Regs
By Nick Pope, The Daily Caller, Oct 4, 2024
https://dailycaller.com/2024/10/04/scotus-passes-on-chance-to-block-two-aggressive-biden-harris-climate-regs
The Litigation Money-Roll: Where the Dollars Funding Toxic Tort Cases Come From
By Barbara Pfeffer, ACSH, Sep 26, 2024
https://www.acsh.org/news/2024/09/26/litigation-money-roll-where-dollars-funding-toxic-tort-cases-come-49015
EPA and other Regulators on the March
‘Classic Junk Science’: New Biden-Harris Lead Pipe Rule Could Bring $90 Billion Price Tag For American Ratepayers
By Owen Klinsky, Daily Caller, Oct 8, 2024 [H/t John Dunn]
https://dailycaller.com/2024/10/08/classic-junk-science-new-biden-harris-lead-pipe-rule-90-billion-price-tag-american-ratepayers
“EPA estimates that the benefits of the rule will be up to 13 times greater than the costs, including preventing the loss of IQ points in children and avoided deaths and heart disease in adults,” an EPA spokesperson told the Daily Caller News Foundation.
[SEPP Comment: Where’s the physical evidence?]
The Lizard People Attack the Permian
Endangering America’s oil-and-gas boom
By D. Dowd Muska, His Blog, Oct 7, 2024
https://ddowdmuska.substack.com/p/the-lizard-people-attack-the-permian
Energy Issues – Non-US
Emma Pinchbeck To Head Up CCC
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 9, 2024
Just what we need – a renewable lobbyist taking over at the Committee on Climate Change:
How Can We Replace Gas Power?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 8, 2024
Miliband Wants You To Pay Billions For Unnecessary Pumped Storage
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 11, 2024
The National Grid already wants £100bn over the next ten years to upgrade the grid to cope with renewables. Then we had Miliband’s potty plan to litter the country with flywheels. Now billions more are demanded for his latest hare-brained scheme.
Let’s burn money Ed: Flywheels could power the UK for half a second at a million dollars a megawatt hour
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 8, 2024
Link to reference: A review of flywheel energy storage rotor materials and structures
By Hu Dongxu , et al., Journal of Energy Storage, Dec 25, 2023
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S2352152X2302474X
From the abstract: The flywheel is the main energy storage component in the flywheel energy storage system, and it can only achieve high energy storage density when rotating at high speeds.
Wot, No Heat Pumps?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 9, 2024
One rule for us (government bureaucrats)….
S. Africa offers a lesson on how not to shut down a coal plant
By Zama Luthuli, Middelburg, South Africa (AFP) Oct 10, 2024
https://www.energy-daily.com/reports/S_Africa_offers_a_lesson_on_how_not_to_shut_down_a_coal_plant_999.html
Energy Issues – Australia
Nanny-state rule and banking-cartel may crash out coal plant and 4% of our electricity after Christmas
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Oct 10, 2024
Restoring Australia’s competitiveness
Originally published in Canberra Daily, October 2024
By Alan Moran, Regulatory Review, Oct 7, 2024
https://amoran.substack.com/p/restoring-australias-competitiveness?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=1824724&post_id=149940906&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=f7h7&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
Australia could join the success evidenced in the Asian economies. This would be especially the case if we were to revert to a coal-based system in which we enjoy tremendous advantages in low-polluting coal that is inexpensive to mine and feed into power stations.
Energy Issues — US
$50 Trillion For What?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 7, 2024
A great takedown of Biden’s climate plans by Louisiana Senator John Kennedy:
Video of hearing with a Deputy Secretary of DOE. Link: https://x.com/thecoffeesfresh/status/1843200537384399192
When Consumer Advocates Forget the Consumer Part, Energy Bills Go Up
By Marc Brown, Real Clear Energy, Oct 10, 2024
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2024/10/10/when_consumer_advocates_forget_the_consumer_part_energy_bills_go_up_1064204.html
You can be a consumer advocate, or you can be a policy advocate, but you cannot be both. How can consumer advocates pound the table about the cost of a transmission line, or fret over the potential stranded cost of a natural gas project (both of which may be very justifiable when you put pen to paper and assess the energy costs/benefits they provide) but then turn around and support public policy and supply costs that make up over 50% of the bill. That’s rich. That’s hypocrisy. That’s not doing your job.
America’s Power Supply Could Be Inadequate To Meet Demand By Decade’s End, Major Consultancy Says
By Nick Pope, Daily Caller, Oct 10, 2024
https://dailycaller.com/2024/10/10/americas-power-supply-inadequate-demand-decades-end-major-consultancy-says
Link to report: Utilities Must Reinvent Themselves to Harness the AI-Driven Data Center Boom
Balancing growth, reliability, affordability, and sustainability is the sector’s biggest challenge in decades.
By Maeghan Rouch, et al., Bain & Company, Oct 10, 2024
https://www.bain.com/insights/utilities-must-reinvent-themselves-to-harness-the-ai-driven-data-center-boom
Don’t Stifle PA Energy Dominance With Net-Zero Policies
By Gabriella Hoffman & Brianna Howard, Real Clear Energy, Oct 7, 2024
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2024/10/07/dont_stifle_pa_energy_dominance_with_net-zero_policies_1063503.html
An Inflation Hurricane Is Shorting The Electric Grid
Prices for generators, transformers, and other utility components are soaring. Hurricane Helene (and now Milton) will make the problem worse.
By Robert Bryce, His Blog, Oct 8, 2024
https://robertbryce.substack.com/p/an-inflation-hurricane-is-shorting?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=630873&post_id=149986412&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=f7h7&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
Washington’s Control of Energy
Repeal Biden’s Entire Destructive Climate Change Program
By David Simon, Via Cornwall Alliance, Oct 11, 2024
Oil Spills, Gas Leaks & Consequences
2 dead, 35 injured in Texas oil refinery leak
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Oct 11, 2024
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4929322-chemical-leak-texas-oil-refinery
A chemical leak at a Texas oil refinery killed two workers and caused multiple injuries Thursday afternoon, officials with state-owned Mexican oil firm Pemex confirmed.
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Reopening Three Mile Island Bucks Popular Opinion
By Craig Shirley, Real Clear Energy, Oct 08, 2024
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2024/10/08/reopening_three_mile_island_bucks_popular_opinion_1063837.html
Unraveling the Nuclear Fusion Confusion
By Duggan Flanakin, Real Clear Energy, Oct 9, 2024
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2024/10/09/unraveling_the_nuclear_fusion_confusion_1064199.html
There’s a low-carbon energy technology that actually works. But we won’t use it
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 8, 2024
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Solar Shame: The True Cost of Solar Power
By Norman Rogers, Real Clear Energy, Oct 7, 2024
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2024/10/07/solar_shame_the_true_cost_of_solar_power_1063523.html
Solar Delusions
By Norman Rogers, American Thinker, Oct 11, 2024
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2024/10/solar_delusions.html
Solar Protectionism Is Anything But Sunny
By André Béliveau, Real Clear Energy, Oct 08, 2024
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2024/10/08/solar_protectionism_is_anything_but_sunny_1063813.html
Offshore wind’s bogus benefits bragged on
By David Wojick, CFACT, Oct 7, 2024
https://www.cfact.org/2024/10/07/offshore-winds-bogus-benefits-bragged-on
Link to: New Modeling Shows Offshore Wind’s Benefits to Climate, Health, and Energy Bills
Press Release, Resources for the Future (RFF) Oct 2, 2024
https://www.rff.org/news/press-releases/new-modeling-shows-offshore-winds-benefits-to-climate-health-and-energy-bills
From press release: The detailed modeling projects that, because offshore wind farms prevent polluting electricity generation from natural gas and coal, each year of operation would prevent approximately 2,100 premature deaths.
Capacity: More offshore wind means that less nonvariable generation capacity is needed to maintain grid reliability. It also means a shift from capacity with higher fixed costs to types with lower fixed costs, reducing the net cost of the offshore wind farms.
[SEPP Comment: How many wind turbines work during a hurricane to keep hospitals running?]
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Hydrogen to become a source of cleaner power on a massive scale
By Staff, Global Data Energy, Yahoo/finance, Oct 7, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hydrogen-become-source-cleaner-power-091249048.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cDovL21haWwuaGFhcGFsYS5jb20v&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAFAoyEkVRIEBA-TJV2yDtVzJ79op5yF72BahAC2bOZWOaXOBJuZ2ZTSzRmK3usz-721mEjERXltoSzqN-mePOgv4CzD3bWwuh1XMvdOl5Y_R2-h87Us1vao3zGMVFI-yGBz-HzeH4w-XPDfBzuKRlXq38ZI5ipBBppRPH0rs06tg
California Dreaming
The Disruptive Potential of Photovoltaics
By Edward Ring, What’s Current, Accessed Oct 10, 2024
https://mailchi.mp/calpolicycenter/whats-current-issue-7859212?e=cd9fa89d1e
[SEPP Comment: Fails to address reliability. Power must not only be affordable, but also reliable. Solar power fails every night.]
Environmental Industry
Civil War Breaks Out in the Green Blob But Don’t Expect the BBC to Report it
By Chris Morrison, The Daily Sceptic, Oct 6, 2024
Link to questionable study: The greenhouse gas footprint of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exported from the United States
By Robert W. Howarth, SCI, Oct 3, 2024
https://scijournals.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ese3.1934?utm_medium=email&utm_source=substack
In the U.K., the penny is finally dropping that gas is the only realistic backup to an electricity system powered by unreliable breezes and sunbeams. But at the same time the mad Miliband crew is closing down local oil and gas exploration and step forward Professor Robert Howarth of Cornell University who claims transportable American liquified natural gas (LNG) has a bigger ‘carbon’ footprint than coal.
From the “study:” Even considered on the time frame of 100 years after emission (GWP100), which severely understates the climatic damage of methane, the LNG footprint equals or exceeds that of coal.
[SEPP Comment; The professor does not understand the greenhouse effect and that the influence of methane on temperatures is tiny because it is superseded by water vapor.]
Report: World wildlife populations dropped by nearly three-quarters in 50 years
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Oct 10, 2024
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/4927346-wildlife-populations-decline-wwf
Link to press release: “System in peril”: Average wildlife populations’ size declined by 73% in just 50 years, warns WWF
By Staff, WWF, Oct 10, 2024
https://www.wwf.eu/?15334891/System-in-peril-Average-wildlife-populations-size-declined-by-73-in-just-50-years-warns-WWF#:~:text=WWF,-%E2%80%9CSystem%20in%20peril&text=There%20has%20been%20a%20catastrophic,Planet%20Report%20(LPR)%202024.
Link to: Living Planet Report 2024
By Staff, WWF, 2024
https://livingplanet.panda.org/en-US
[SEPP Comment: With a flourishing of Earth?]
Other Scientific News
Mission to Jupiter’s icy moon, Europa, begins on October 10th…amazing work by Galileo 400+ years ago on the largest planet in our solar system and its moons
By Paul Dorian, Arcfield Weather, Via WUWT, Oct 5, 2024
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
How not to report on climate
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Oct 9, 2024
Perplexingly, no less. And yes, there are lots of ways to get data to do what you wanted it to by omitting the stuff that doesn’t. But since the Mesozoic stretches for over 180 million years, from 251.9 to 66.0 million years ago or so, taking it out of a study that covers 485 million years because CO2 and temperature don’t correlate, and you want them could be mistaken for cheating. And calling it an “enigma” or “discrepancy” doesn’t fix the problem.
So, where’s the fabled journalistic skepticism? Or is there no discernible relationship between common sense and writing for a newspaper now?
[SEPP Comment; On the supposed 485-million-year climate study.]
“ready for the next one”
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Oct 6, 2024
Eight years ago, the press announced that Asheville was ready for the next big rainfall event like the one during July 1916.
Did you hear the one about the Electric Ferry…?
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Oct 11, 2024
A solar powered auto ferry in northern Germany. Video
Rationing and Climate Change Mitigation
By Nathan Wood, Rob Lawlor, &Josie Freear, Ethics, Policy & Environment: Feb 19, 2023 [H/t Clare Goldsberry]
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/21550085.2023.2166342
[SEPP Comment: Rationing was of national interest during WWII. Doubtful if many people will support it today in the name of climate change.]
Perceptions of carbon dioxide emission reductions and future warming among climate experts
By Seth Wynes, et al., Communications Earth & Environment, Sep 12, 2024 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-024-01661-8
[SEPP Comment: Analyzing shoddy work forever.]
The Guardian Tries, and Fails, To Link Firefly Endangerment To Climate Change
By Linnea Lueken, Climate Realism, Oct 4, 2024
ARTICLES
1. Big Oil Urges Trump Not to Gut Biden’s Climate Law
Oil companies try to persuade Trump and his Republican allies not to slash provisions of the Inflation Reduction Act potentially worth billions
By Collin Eaton and Benoît Morenne, WSJ, Oct 6, 2024
https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/big-oil-urges-trump-not-to-gut-bidens-climate-law-795dc597?mod=hp_lead_pos5
TWTW Summary: The key points are discussed in the This Week section above.
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2. Washington Racks Up Another $1.8 Trillion Budget Deficit
Government spending rises 11%, more than offsetting booming tax revenue.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, Updated Oct. 8, 2024
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/government-deficit-1-8-trillion-biden-harris-janet-yellen-federal-reserve-95cb8efb?mod=opinion_feat1_editorials_pos1
TWTW Summary: The key points are discussed in the This Week section above.
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