A Lesson in Perspective – Watts Up With That?

For the past two years, headlines, policy statements, and social media feeds have been flooded with dire warnings about rising ocean temperatures. Every uptick in the graphs was treated as irrefutable proof of humanity’s march toward ecological collapse. The news cycle offered little room for nuance, and as usual, the loudest voices declared the end was nigh. But a recent tweet from Javier Viños, supported by a graph of global sea surface temperatures (SST), reminds us how quickly climate “emergencies” dissolve when confronted with even the faintest hint of natural variability.

Viños’s tweet is remarkable in its simplicity and restraint. For the first time in 21 months, global ocean temperatures have returned to levels seen in December 2015—nine years ago. Let that sink in for a moment. After two years of being bombarded with claims that the Earth’s oceans were on an unstoppable trajectory of warming, we find ourselves… back where we were nearly a decade ago. The graph he shared makes this clear, showing the average SST dipping out of the “anomalous” zone, contradicting two years’ worth of sensational headlines.

What the Data Shows

The chart, which aggregates SST data from NOAA and the University of Maine’s Climate Change Institute, plots daily SST readings from 60°S to 60°N, covering a broad swath of the Earth’s oceans. The most striking feature is the orange 2023 line that shows pronounced warmth—well above the 1991–2020 baseline average—before gradually declining. The 2024 data (dark red) follows suit, steadily falling back to levels not seen since 2015.

Viños describes this trend as part of “poorly understood natural climate variability,” a phrase that should be plastered across every climate model and policymaker’s desk. The graph itself illustrates this beautifully: the chaotic, squiggling lines of each year reveal the natural ups and downs of ocean temperatures, starkly contrasting the prevailing narrative that climate change operates on a simple linear trajectory of doom.

The Last Two Years of Hyperbole

In 2023, the narrative around ocean temperatures reached fever pitch. Every spike in temperature was portrayed as an existential crisis. Headlines screamed about unprecedented oceanic heatwaves, ecosystems pushed to the brink, and melting polar ice accelerating sea-level rise. Phrases like “off the charts” and “new normal” were thrown around with reckless abandon.

Yet here we are, with the average SST plummeting back to levels seen nearly a decade ago. What does this tell us? That ocean temperatures fluctuate. That long-term trends are more complicated than the alarmists would have you believe. And perhaps most importantly, that the overconfidence in computer models and the myopic focus on short-term anomalies is profoundly misplaced.

Misunderstanding Natural Variability

Viños’s choice of words—“poorly understood natural climate variability”—cuts to the heart of the issue. Despite decades of research and countless billions of dollars spent, the science of climate variability remains riddled with uncertainties. Climate models struggle to replicate observed phenomena like the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Take 2023’s anomalous warmth, for example. It coincided with a strong El Niño event, which naturally warms surface waters in the Pacific and influences global weather patterns. While the media pounced on this as evidence of human-caused warming, a significant portion of it was likely due to this entirely natural phenomenon.

Moreover, the complexities of ocean-atmosphere interactions, deep-sea currents, and solar variability are still poorly understood. As a result, the idea that we can attribute every blip on the graph to anthropogenic CO2 emissions is not just simplistic—it’s scientifically irresponsible.

The Danger of Overreaction

The problem with climate hyperbole is not just that it’s wrong, but that it leads to bad policy. Over the past two years, nations have doubled down on costly decarbonization efforts, citing “unprecedented” ocean temperatures as justification. Policies like Net Zero, which aim to eliminate fossil fuel use entirely, have disrupted energy markets, driven inflation, and plunged millions into energy poverty—all in the name of “saving the planet.”

But what if this episode of warming was primarily natural in origin? What if the 2023 temperature spike was just another bump in the chaotic rhythm of natural variability? The billions spent on “fixing” the climate would then amount to a colossal waste, solving a problem that doesn’t exist or was never fully understood in the first place.

Lessons for the Future

Viños’s tweet and the accompanying data highlight the need for humility in climate science and policymaking. The complex interplay of factors that influence ocean temperatures defies simplistic explanations and linear trends. Instead of rushing to declare every fluctuation a crisis, we should acknowledge the vast uncertainties that still exist and adopt a more measured approach to both science and policy.

Policymakers would do well to remember the following:

1. Natural variability is not a bug; it’s a feature of the Earth’s climate system.
2. Short-term trends do not equal long-term trajectories. Two years of anomalous temperatures do not prove climate catastrophe, just as this return to 2015 levels doesn’t disprove it.
3. Correlation is not causation. Just because temperatures are higher doesn’t mean human activity is the sole—or even primary—cause.
4. Precautionary policies are not free. When governments pursue drastic measures like Net Zero without understanding the full picture, the economic and social consequences can be severe.

Conclusion

The graph shared by Javier Viños should serve as a wake-up call for anyone who’s been swept up in the climate hysteria of the past two years. While it’s tempting to view every uptick in temperature as evidence of impending doom, the reality is far more nuanced. Ocean temperatures are now back to levels seen in 2015, a stark reminder of the chaotic, unpredictable nature of the climate system.

In the end, the greatest threat to rational policy isn’t rising temperatures—it’s the unrelenting tide of hyperbole that drowns out careful analysis and critical thinking. If we truly want to address environment challenges, we must first learn to distinguish between signal and noise. And as this latest data shows, there’s a lot more noise out there than we’ve been led to believe.