Skeptical Science New Research for Week #24 2025

Increasing Exposures to Compound Wildfire Smoke and Extreme Heat Hazards in California, 2011–2020, Jones?Ngo et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005189

Migration due to floodplain buyouts mimics general post-disaster migration patterns, Schwaller et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100715

Non-stationary precipitation design standards for stormwater infrastructure modernization at USAF installations, Jaks et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100718

Climate change impacts on human health

Cognition, emotion, and belief in the adaptation response of older people to heatwaves, Bourgeois et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2025.2514106

Improving health professionals’ capacity to respond to the climate crisis: Outcomes of the Caribbean climate and health responder course, Sorensen et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000566

Other

Revealing future changes in China’s forest fire under climate change, Li et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110609

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

How to spot suspicious papers: a sleuthing guide for scientists, Naddaf, Nature 10.1038/d41586-025-01826-1

Kickoff of a Joint AMS/ASCE Effort to Assess the Potential Contribution of AI in Addressing Infrastructure Resilience in a Changing Climate, Giovannettone et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-25-0077.1

Recommendations for producing knowledge syntheses to inform climate change assessments, Ford et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-025-02354-6

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

The Advanced Manufacturing Tax Credit is Rebuilding U.S. Manufacturing, Taylor et al., Atlas Public Policy

The authors outline the potential reach of the Advanced Manufacturing Production Tax Credit on the production of batteries, solar energy components, wind energy components, inverters, and critical minerals. To date, a total of $48.3 billion in announced investments and 62,700 jobs are associated with operational facilities that qualify for the tax credit. There is a further $137.2 billion and 103,100 jobs in tracked announcements at facilities that are planned or under construction that will be eligible for the tax credit. Overwhelmingly, the factories supporting this manufacturing are in Republican House Congressional districts (77 percent of all investments).

National Climate Change Risk Assessment Main Report (Ireland), KPMG Ireland, Environemnt Protection Agency (Ireland)

Ireland’s first National Climate Change Risk Assessment (NCCRA) provides a comprehensive national overview of the potential risks and opportunities posed by climate change for Ireland. It will play a critical role in meeting national policy objectives and supporting sectoral and local authority climate adaptation planning processes. The NCCRA integrates scientific and technical knowledge with input from expert stakeholders, to identify, assess, and prioritize climate change risks to build a comprehensive understanding of risks.

Principles for responsible and effective marine carbon dioxide removal development and governance, Doney et al., The High Level Panel for a Sustainable Ocean Economy

Launched on June 4, 2025, at the One Ocean Science Congress in Nice, France, ahead of the United Nations Ocean Conference, this Blue Paper was commissioned by the High Level Panel for a Sustainable Ocean Economy (Ocean Panel) to inform evidence-based decision-making on the responsible development and governance of marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR). As countries seek to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, mCDR approaches—designed to enhance the ocean’s natural capacity to absorb and store carbon through biological and chemical processes—are likely to play a complementary role alongside emissions reductions. However, significant knowledge gaps remain regarding their effectiveness, cost, permanence, and potential environmental and social impacts.

Analysis of the alignment between energy transition pathways for Irish carbon budgets with EU energy and climate targets, Ciara Doherty and Hannah Daly, The Climate Change Advisory Council, Ireland

The authors assess the alignment between Ireland’s national energy system decarbonization pathways and key EU energy and climate-related targets. Specifically, they examine how scenarios consistent with Ireland’s carbon budget, approved and legally adopted in the period to 2030 and proposed in the period to 2040, and sectoral emissions ceilings, compare to EU obligations, namely: • The EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU-ETS) • The Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) • The Energy Efficiency Directive (EED) • Indicative 2040 GHG emissions target The analysis focuses on energy-related sectors—electricity, buildings, transport, and industry—and excludes agriculture and land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF), which are not included in the energy system model used.

Climate risk analysis for Switzerland, Federal Office for the Environment

The authors identify and assesses climate risks and climate-related opportunities for Switzerland up to the year 2060. The content and methods of the first climate risk analysis published in 2017 was comprehensively reviewed and updated with the involvement of numerous specialists from the government, academic and business. The results serve as a basis for the Federal Council’s future adaptation strategy and for developing adaptation strategies and action plans in the cantons and regions.

Americans’ Views on Energy at the Start of Trump’s Second Term, Kennedy et al., Pew Research Center

How have Americans’ views on energy changed in recent years? The authors surveyed 5,085 U.S. adults from April 28 to May 4, 2025, to takes a look. While wind and solar power are still popular overall, Americans have become less supportive of these sources since the first Trump administration. This shift has been driven by sharp declines in support among Republicans and Republican leaners. Nuclear power has seen an increase in support in recent years, with more positive views among Republicans and Democrats alike. Phasing out the production of new gasoline cars and trucks by 2035 is unpopular with Americans. A majority oppose this proposal, and opposition has become more widespread since 2021 among both Republicans and Democrats. Americans are more likely to say they would seriously consider buying a hybrid vehicle (45%) than an electric vehicle (33%). Democrats remain more likely than Republicans to say that next time they purchase a vehicle, they would be interested in buying a hybrid or electric model.

The Scale of Significance: Power Plants, Peter Howard and Jason Schwartz, Institute for Policy Integrity

The Trump Administration is openly questioning the significance of U.S. contributions to climate change, playing down U.S. greenhouse gas emissions as contributing only “some mysterious amount above zero to climate change.” According to a leaked draft of a proposed regulatory repeal, Trump’s EPA will compare the U.S. power sector’s greenhouse gas emissions to worldwide totals and find, judged on that relative scale, the sector’s contribution to climate change is neither “significant” nor “meaningful.” That kind of skewed appraisal would produce the reductio ad absurdum under which no U.S. sector, sliced thinly enough, is ever a significant source of greenhouse gases—a clearly irrational outcome. By any measure, emissions from major U.S. industries like the electric power sector contribute significantly to climate damages. The best available evidence shows that each year of greenhouse gas emissions from U.S. coal-fired and gas-fired power plants will contribute to climate damages responsible for thousands of U.S. deaths and hundreds of billions in economics harms.

A just energy transition deferred: How the World Bank counts pro-privatisation energy sector reforms as ‘climate finance’, Jon Sward and Laure-Alizée Le Lannou, The Bretton Woods Project

The authors found that the World Bank counted 70 per cent of energy-sector reforms in Development Policy Financing as having ‘climate co-benefits’ between 2018-2023 – but most of these promoted a private-led energy transition.

The 2025 Progress Report. Climate Risk Reporting in the U.S. Insurance Sector, Jaclyn de Medicci Bruneau, Ceres

The author analyzes climate disclosures from 526 insurance groups representing over 1,700 companies, following the Task Force on Climate Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) framework’s four pillars: governance, strategy, risk management, and metrics and targets. 99% of insurers reported on risk management, 97% on strategy, and 87% on governance. However, just 29% disclosed metrics and targets—virtually unchanged from previous years. Only 28% of insurers disclosed across all four pillars of the TCFD framework. Use of climate scenario analysis is up 28%, with 148 insurance groups incorporating it in 2023.

Cambodia Climate Change Strategic Plan 2024 -2033, Department of Climate Change, Royal Government of Cambodia

The Cambodia’s Climate Change Strategic Plan 2024-2033 (CCCSP 2024-2033) aims to address gaps identified in the approach towards the country’s Nationally Determined Contribution 3.0 (NDC3.0) and Long-Term Strategy for Carbon Neutrality targets and give specific attention to emerging climate themes and to the most vulnerable, marginalized and at risk-population, especially children and women. It has been developed to be aligned with key national policies such as the Pentagonal Strategy Phase 1 and the Circular Strategy on Environment 2023-2028 and line agency sectoral strategies. The CCCSP 2024-2033 also presents financial and technology needs and estimated resource needs which will be further refined according to the national development needs and circumstances. Moving forward it is anticipated the line agencies will develop and implement their respective action plans to support Cambodia’s progress towards carbon neutrality and climate resilience through inclusive and sustainable national development.

The Compelling Business Case for Climate Adaptation, Brandon et al., World Resources Institute

The authors found that investing $1 in adaptation can yield more than $10.50 in benefits over 10 years. This reflects not only the avoided losses from climate impacts, but also a wide range of economic, social and environmental benefits that are generated even when disasters don’t occur. In other words, adaptation is not just a crucial response to the climate crisis; it is also one of the smartest investments of our time.

Silent Influence. Are companies failing to govern their climate lobbying?, Danu Insight

Corporate political lobbying is a critical global issue to the progression of climate change. However, there is little transparency in the market regarding which companies are supporting policy and who is effectively governing their climate lobbying actions. To address this gap, the authors examined the public disclosures of 8,500 of the largest listed companies and assessed them using data science and AI models to provide both quantitative and qualitative results.

Beyond Planting Trees: Taking Advantage of Satellite Observations to Improve Forest Carbon Management and Wildfire Prevention, Lee et al., United Nations University, Institute for Water, Environment and Health

In many parts of the world, forests and peatlands, previously considered to be the largest terrestrial carbon storehouses, are transitioning into super carbon emitters under warming conditions, due to large and frequent wildfires. Carbon mitigation actions and policies— including carbon pricing, credit verification, and Voluntary Carbon Market (VCM) projects under the forestry and land-use category, as well as the Paris Agreement, fail to properly account for wildfire-related carbon emissions. Natural carbon sequestration in dry soils through forestation policies might be ineffective in warming environments with more frequent wildfires. Under certain conditions and mostly in arid and warming environments where the efficiency of photosynthesis is reduced, controlled harvesting and grazing could be actively considered as a strategy for maintaining soil and vegetation moisture and preventing increased carbon emissions. A global platform of near-real-time satellite observations of forest conditions is needed to ensure transparency and accountability of VCMs in accordance with the changing conditions of forests under global warming.

Wildfire: An Updated Look at Utility Risk and Mitigation, Macomber et al., Stanford Law School’s Environmental and Natural Resources Law & Policy Program and the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment’s Climate and Energy Policy Program

The authors share new findings from survey of wildfire mitigation efforts across investor-owned utilities, and explore how utilities, policymakers, regulators, and community leaders can work together to reduce wildfire risk and create a more resilient, sustainable electric grid. The authors examined how investor-owned utilities (IOUs) across the country are confronting the escalating threat of wildfires. The key takeaway: while progress has been made across many Western states, utilities in some potentially high-risk areas remain underprepared. Using a combination of public data and wildfire hazard modeling, the authors assigned “tiers” to utility wildfire mitigation efforts. Tier 1 utilities have implemented comprehensive plans and technical measures—like fast-trip settings that can turn power lines off more quickly when an object touches them during high-fire-risk periods—to reduce the chance of ignitions. Tier 3 utilities, on the other hand, lack even a public plan describing their implementation of wildfire mitigation or safety shutoffs.

Beyond LCOE: A Systems-Oriented Perspective for Evaluating Electricity Decarbonization Pathways, Moraski et al., Clean Air Task Force

Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE) is a widely used standardized metric to assess electricity generation project costs per expected generation output. Often used to compare technology costs, LCOE has become a ubiquitous metric used in electricity industry literature, cost forecasts, project business cases, and policy making. The LCOE metric is popular in part due to its simplicity and standardization and has been used widely to display LCOE declines of solar and wind. LCOE is calculated by summing the discounted project cost, primarily capital and operating expenditures, and dividing those costs by the discounted expected electricity generation over the life of the project. While LCOE is a good metric to track historical technology cost evolution, it is not an appropriate tool to use in the context of long-term planning and policymaking for deep decarbonization. The authors explain why LCOE fails to reflect the full complexity of electricity systems and can lead to decisions that jeopardize reliability, affordability, and clean generation.

Powering a Brighter Future in Pennsylvania, Generation180

During the last 10 years, the solar capacity at Pennsylvania K-12 educational institutions has more than tripled and the number of K-12 schools with solar installations has more than doubled. By the end of 2024, Pennsylvania reached a key milestone: over 100,000 students—more than 5.5% of the state’s student population — now attend a solar-powered school. Pennsylvania has made a commitment to build on this progress and support schools in accessing the benefits of solar energy. In 2024, Pennsylvania enacted the Solar for Schools Act and launched a new state grant program to help public schools statewide fund solar energy projects. In May 2025, the state awarded $22.6 million to support over 42 megawatts (MW) of new solar projects at 73 school sites—71 of which are K-12 school. While this momentum is promising, currently only 2% of K-12 schools statewide have installed solar energy projects. There is more work to do for all Pennsylvania schools to access the benefits of clean energy. Solar is a practical solution that reduces costs, enhances energy independence, and inspires students to become informed and engaged citizens. By investing in solar energy for schools, Pennsylvania creates opportunities for students to develop valuable skills, strengthen their communities, and build a resilient future.

The Long Term Will Be Decided Now. Why Climate Risk Demands System-Level Action from Investors, Ben Cushing, The Sierra Club

The author explains why climate change must be treated as a system-level financial threat; then, he outlines how investors can use their influence to reduce emissions and protect long-term portfolio value. He argues that conventional strategies—such as ESG integration and shareholder divestment—do not confront companies’ climate pollution or the broader economic damage driven by rising emissions. Instead, he lays out a practical framework for “system-level investing” that prioritizes real-world impact to mitigate systemic risk.

About New Research

Click here for the why and how of Skeptical Science New Research.

Suggestions

Please let us know if you’re aware of an article you think may be of interest for Skeptical Science research news, or if we’ve missed something that may be important. Send your input to Skeptical Science via our contact form.

Previous edition

The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.