So far, NOAA’s ‘above normal’ hurricane season prediction is a bust – Watts Up With That?

Remember this from 23 May 2025?

NOAA’s outlook for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season predicts a 30% chance of a near-normal season, a 60% chance of an above-normal season, and a 10% chance of a below-normal season.

The agency is forecasting a range of 13 to 19 total named storms . Of those, 6-10 are forecast to become hurricanes, including 3-5 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 178 kmh/111 mph or higher). 

NOAA has a 70% confidence in these ranges.

As of today September 27th, 2025 zero hurricanes have made landfall in the United states during the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. The season runs from June 1st to November 30th. So, we have just 2 months to go and we have already passed the peak climatology for hurricanes in the Atlantic.

The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season is climatologically around September 10th, a date when ocean and atmospheric conditions are typically most conducive to storm development and intensification due to warm sea surface temperatures and low wind shear. While storm activity can begin before and after this date, with the overall season running from June 1st to November 30th, the period between mid-August and mid-October generally experiences the most activity. 

While the season has produced five named tropical storms and three hurricanes so far with the names Andrea, Barry, Chantal, Dexter, Erin, and Humberto ….none classified as hurricanes, with Category 1 or higher (with sustained winds of 74 mph or more) have struck US soil.

And, it doesn’t look like Humberto will make US landfall either.