Issued: 1:15pm AEDT Wednesday, 12 October 2022
A Severe Weather Warning is current for heavy rainfall around the northern half of Tasmania from Wednesday evening.
A Severe Weather Warning for damaging north-easterly winds, with gusts to 95 km/h, is current for north-eastern and eastern coasts from Thursday afternoon.
Significant rainfall is expected in north-west, northern and north-eastern Tasmania from Wednesday evening.
The most significant rain is expected on Thursday and overnight into early Friday morning. Areas around the Great Western Tiers may see some intense rainfall over the same period.
Northern Tasmania is forecast to see around 60 – 100 mm with falls of 180 mm possible for the northeast highlands, and up to 250 mm or more about the Western Tiers.
The south-west of Tasmania will see around 30 – 60 mm and the south-east including Hobart around 15-30 mm.
The band of rain is expected to clear to the east early on Friday morning, followed by lighter showers extending over the state and possible afternoon thunderstorms.
Widespread significant flooding is expected from Thursday and into the weekend. Major flooding is possible in parts of the Forth, North Esk, Mersey, lower Macquarie and Meander rivers and the river Ouse (in the Derwent catchment).
Minor to moderate flooding is likely along the South Esk River (including Trevallyn Pond). Minor flooding is possible along the River Derwent (and River Clyde).
A Flood Watch is current for all north-west, north and north-east catchments, and also for the Derwent catchment (including Ouse and Clyde).
Catchment specific flood warnings are likely to be issued later today.
Damaging surf may also become a risk Thursday afternoon and early Friday, and a Severe Weather Warning may be issued later today.
The moisture from this event is coming from the Indian Ocean to the northwest and from the Coral Sea to the northeast, down to as far south as Tasmania by a cold front ahead of a low south of the Bight.
The Bureau continues to monitor the situation closely and updates forecasts and warnings regularly.
Residents and communities living on or near any rivers, creeks and streams or in low lying areas, are advised to stay up to date with the latest forecast and warnings.
For all the latest warnings in Tasmania visit: www.bom.gov.au/tas/warnings/
Know your weather, know your risk. Communities should stay up to date with the latest forecasts and warnings via our website and BOM Weather app and follow advice of emergency services.