Climate extremes are amplifying energy system stress
Using four core energy indicators (wind and solar capacity factors, a precipitation-based hydropower proxy, and a temperature-derived energy demand proxy), the analysis shows that residual El Niño conditions, record ocean heat and long-term warming produced strong regional contrasts in energy outcomes in 2024.
In Southern Africa, wind capacity factors increased by around +8 to +16% and solar by +2 to +6%, while hydropower remained below average for a third consecutive year and energy demand reached record highs. South Asia experienced deficits in wind and solar performance alongside sharply rising cooling demand, with monthly demand anomalies reaching around +16% in October. East Africa saw positive hydropower anomalies due to above-average rainfall, while parts of South America faced suppressed hydropower output and elevated demand under dry and hot conditions.
Seasonal forecasts show growing value for energy planning
For the first time, the report evaluates the skill of seasonal climate forecasts for energy indicators. Results indicate that forecasts—particularly from the ECMWF system—can successfully anticipate regional anomalies in solar energy potential and electricity demand months in advance. For example, forecasts issued in early summer 2024 correctly signaled unusually high energy demand and below-average solar performance across large parts of Africa.
These advances demonstrate how early warning information on heatwaves, rainfall shifts and large-scale climate drivers such as ENSO can support load management, reservoir operations, infrastructure scheduling and cross-border electricity trade, helping to reduce volatility in both supply and demand.
Implications for policy, investment and NDCs
As countries prepare their Long-Term Low Emission Development Strategies (LT-LEDS), the report highlights the need to strengthen climate-informed energy planning by improving data and observational systems, expanding regional climate services and early warning systems, mainstreaming seasonal forecasts into decision-making, and designing climate-resilient energy targets aligned with the Paris Agreement and the COP28 Global Stocktake.
“The global energy transition is unstoppable but must be grounded in climate reality,” said Francesco La Camera, Director-General of IRENA. “This report shows that understanding climate variability is critical for making smart investment decisions, strengthening energy security and ensuring that rapidly growing renewable capacity delivers reliable power under real-world climate conditions.”
By bridging meteorological science and energy planning, the WMO–IRENA 2024 Year in Review provides actionable insights to support resilient, reliable and equitable clean energy systems as renewable deployment accelerates worldwide.
