Fact brief – Does the recent slowdown in Arctic sea-ice extent loss disprove human-caused warming?

Posted on 2 December 2025 by Sue Bin Park

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Does the recent slowdown in Arctic sea-ice extent loss disprove human-caused warming?

The recent pause in Arctic sea-ice loss is natural variability on top of a long-term, human-driven decline.

Arctic sea ice naturally expands in winter and contracts in summer, but satellite records since the late 1970s show a steep multi-decade decline in the yearly minimum of sea ice. Short-term fluctuations such as changes in ocean currents and regional weather can temporarily slow or accelerate melt, but cannot reverse the overall downward trajectory. 

Although the record low minimum ice extent occurred in 2012, 2025 still ranked among the ten lowest years on record, consistent with warming driven by human greenhouse gas emissions. Recent climate modeling shows that multi-year pauses can occur during long-term decline. The recent slowdown is indicative of natural variability, not evidence against global warming.

The Arctic continues to lose sea ice over time, and human-caused warming remains the primary driver.

Go to full rebuttal on Skeptical Science or to the fact brief on Gigafact

This fact brief is responsive to quotes such as this one.

Sources

NASA World of Change: Arctic Sea Ice

NASA Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Extent – Earth Indicator

Polar Bears International Why has the Arctic sea ice minimum not set a new record in over 10 years?

Geophysical Research Letters Minimal Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the Last 20 Years, Consistent With Internal Climate Variability

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About fact briefs published on Gigafact

Fact briefs are short, credibly sourced summaries that offer “yes/no” answers in response to claims found online. They rely on publicly available, often primary source data and documents. Fact briefs are created by contributors to Gigafact — a nonprofit project looking to expand participation in fact-checking and protect the democratic process. See all of our published fact briefs here.