Physics, Economics, and the Glow of Investor Illusion – Watts Up With That?

The latest entry in the pantheon of techno-utopian space fantasies is Reflect Orbital, a startup that proposes to launch 4,000 space mirrors by 2030 to beam sunlight onto solar farms at night, grow crops after dark, and even replace urban streetlights. According to the article from NextBigFuture, the company has already raised $20 million in venture funding and boasts a $1.2 million SBIR grant . Their plan: deploy lightweight Mylar mirrors, each about 54 meters in diameter, into a sun-synchronous orbit around 600 kilometers above Earth, reflecting sunlight onto targeted areas on the ground .

On paper, it sounds like a Bond villain’s dream mixed with Silicon Valley marketing — “solar energy at night, no infrastructure needed.” But a closer look at the physics and economics reveals this as more of a speculative curiosity than a viable energy solution. If anything, it reflects not sunlight but the bright glare of investor enthusiasm for ideas that defy basic arithmetic.

Let’s start with the hard numbers. At that 600 km altitude, each mirror would illuminate a spot roughly 6 kilometers across — an area of about 28 square kilometers . The reflected light intensity from a 54-meter mirror would be just 0.04 watts per square meter, roughly 30,000 times dimmer than midday sunlight and only about twice as bright as a full moon . That’s the first red flag: a single mirror doesn’t even make for decent reading light.

To achieve any useful boost for a solar farm, the company would have to concentrate thousands of mirrors on one spot. The article estimates 5,000 mirrors would yield about 200 W/m², or around 15–20% of normal daylight intensity — barely enough to get photovoltaic panels to function at a fraction of their efficiency . But to sustain that continuously, it would require over 1,000 handoffs per hour, since each mirror would sweep past the target area for only a few minutes. The coordination challenges alone would make air traffic control look like child’s play.

From a physics standpoint, the idea borders on self-parody. The solar flux at Earth’s orbit is about 1,360 W/m², but spreading that energy over a 28 km² patch from a 54-meter reflector results in a faint shimmer, not a sunbeam. To achieve full sunlight intensity on the ground, the company would need mirrors 9 kilometers in diameter — a structural and economic absurdity . The thin films available today can handle maybe 150–200 meters in practical deployment, orders of magnitude smaller than what physics demands.

Even ignoring physics, the economics collapse under their own weight. The article bluntly notes that for a 1 GW solar farm, battery storage outperforms mirrors economically at roughly $0.05/kWh versus $0.10+/kWh for mirrored illumination . And that’s before factoring in launch costs, mirror degradation, and orbital maintenance. To maintain 4,000 active satellites, Reflect Orbital would face continuous replacement cycles and escalating debris risks. The idea that this could compete with terrestrial solutions like batteries or grid interconnection is, frankly, wishful thinking.

Then comes the environmental irony. The company markets its project as a green solution, but as the NextBigFuture readers quickly point out, the unintended consequences would be profound. One commenter warns: “It’s like these people are hellbent on destroying the night sky… every species of animal with circadian rhythms [would] get wrecked” . Another astutely notes the absurdity of trying to fight global warming by increasing the amount of sunlight hitting Earth’s surface: “Spending time and resources in that direction seems insane” .

Indeed, that paradox deserves attention. If one accepts the mainstream climate narrative — that a mere 0.1% change in Earth’s radiation balance drives measurable warming — then adding hundreds of square kilometers of reflected sunlight to the night side of the planet is an environmental experiment of questionable wisdom. The night sky would never be truly dark again, and the project could introduce a new form of light pollution on a planetary scale, something astronomers already battle due to satellite constellations like Starlink.

From a systems perspective, Reflect Orbital suffers from what can only be called the Silicon Valley Space Syndrome: the belief that any physical constraint can be overcome by clever branding and enough venture capital. The startup’s goal to expand from 4,000 mirrors to 250,000 units in the long term is so detached from economic reality that it reads more like a pitch deck fantasy than a technical roadmap . The mirrors might each weigh only 16 kilograms, but launching a quarter million of them, even at a bargain rate of $2,000/kg, implies hundreds of billions in deployment costs. Yet the founders claim they can solve nighttime solar generation with $20 million. That’s not optimism — that’s marketing theater.

The broader issue here is not merely the implausibility of the project but the recurring pattern of investor credulity. Concepts like space-based solar reflection have circulated for decades, from Soviet-era experiments to China’s 2018 proposal to light up Chengdu at eight times the brightness of the full moon . Each time, they generate headlines, attract funding, and quietly fade once the math catches up. Yet the persistence of such schemes underscores how little due diligence some investors perform when “climate tech” is attached to a press release.

In the end, Reflect Orbital is a perfect case study in how technological enthusiasm can outpace thermodynamic reality. The company’s physics doesn’t check out; its economics don’t close; and its environmental logic contradicts its stated goals. If built, it would likely contribute more to orbital clutter and light pollution than to the world’s energy supply. But as an investment story, it shines brightly — at least until investors realize that the illumination on offer is about as useful as moonlight for growing crops.

Reflect Orbital’s plan to light up the night sky might succeed — just not in the way it intends. It will illuminate the widening gap between technological imagination and physical possibility, and the even wider gap between venture capital dreams and economic sense. Like a mirror catching sunlight, it dazzles briefly — before fading into the cold dark of space.