Skeptical Science New Research for Week #16 2025
Posted on 17 April 2025 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Recent intensified riverine CO2 emission across the Northern Hemisphere permafrost region, Mu et al., Nature Communications:
Global warming causes permafrost thawing, transferring large amounts of soil carbon into rivers, which inevitably accelerates riverine CO2 release. However, temporally and spatially explicit variations of riverine CO2 emissions remain unclear, limiting the assessment of land carbon-climate feedback. Using new and published 5685 riverine CO2 partial pressure data in the Arctic and Tibetan Plateau, we show that current riverine CO2 emission across the Northern Hemisphere permafrost zone is 200 ± 15 Tg C yr?1. The emission offsets 28.1 ± 2.1% of the land carbon uptake in the Northern Hemisphere permafrost zone, with large regional variability of 13.1 to 63.1%. Our findings suggest that CO2 emissions increased at a rate of 0.42 ± 0.16 Tg C yr?1 during 2000 to 2020, and this is primarily driven by increased precipitation and accelerated permafrost thawing under climate change. This study highlights increased riverine carbon emission and strengthening of the permafrost carbon feedback to climate after incorporating carbon release from rivers.
Increasing Synchrony of Extreme Heat and Precipitation Events Under Climate Warming, Tang et al., Geophysical Research Letters:
Extreme weather events severely impact human and natural systems, and their impacts would be exacerbated when events occur synchronously. Extensive studies have examined changes in individual events under global warming, but changes in the synchrony of multiple events remain less understood. Here we quantify the synchrony of extreme heat and precipitation events over global land areas and assess how it responds to climate change. We show regional disparities with stronger synchrony in lower latitudes and weaker in middle latitudes. Since the 1980s, the synchrony has increased by 34%, especially in the tropics and northern high latitudes. Climate simulations project an 87% increase by 2100 under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 5–8.5 relative to historical level, while low-emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5) can help mitigate the increased risk of synchronous events. Increasing synchrony is primarily driven by climate warming, and this scaling relationship depends on global warming level rather warming path.
Climate Change Increases Energy Demand and Cost in Texas, Dessler, Weather, Climate, and Society:
This study focuses on the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) electricity market in Texas and demonstrates how the increase in temperature due to climate change is already driving large increases in electricity demand and total electricity costs. Results show that, compared to a 1950–80 baseline climate, electricity demand in 2023 was 1.9 GW (3.9%) higher because of the extreme temperatures of that year—climate change contributed 47% of this increase, with the rest coming from short-term climate variability. As demand increases, so does the price per unit of electricity, so consumers are hit double: They must buy more electricity, and each unit of electricity costs more. Using data from the wholesale market, we estimate that the total cost of electricity (the combination of higher demand and higher per unit prices) increased by $7.6B in 2023 compared to the baseline climate, $290 per ERCOT customer, with most of this increase occurring during the summer. Climate change contributed about 29% of this ($2.2B, $83 per customer), while short-term variability contributed the rest. About two-thirds of this increase is due to price increases triggered when the ERCOT grid becomes constrained. Investments in increasing the power supply or the ability to transmit it across the state, or reducing demand (e.g., demand response), could substantially reduce the impact of increasing temperature on the cost of electricity in Texas.
From this week’s government/NGP section:
Preliminary Results of the Automated Detection of Climate Misinformation in French Television and Radio, Data for Good, Quota Climat, and Science Feedback
The authors lay the foundational groundwork for the international initiative on the automated detection of climate disinformation, known as “Climate Safeguards.” The results presented here were initially generated using a preliminary AI-based method and subsequently validated manually. As such, they do not yet reflect the full accuracy or capabilities of the more advanced models and methods currently under development. Over a three-month broadcasting period, 128 instances of climate disinformation were detected – equivalent to roughly 10 cases per week. This challenges the common belief that disinformation is confined to social media, revealing that traditional media are now significantly affected by climate disinformation. This trend is particularly concerning given the continued high level of trust in traditional news media. It increases the risk of normalizing misleading narratives, blurring the line between fact and opinion, and ultimately weakening the e foundations of our democratic society.
Status of Environment and Climate in Ukraine, Belis et al, European Commission
The authors provide an overall picture of the status of the environment and climate – air quality, emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases – (GHG), forests, soil, and marine environment in Ukraine. The analysis is based on available studies. The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has exacerbated pre-existing challenges related to environmental monitoring and the enforcement of environmental regulations, further complicating this assessment. The information summarised by the authors provides for the first time the basis for assessing the impact of war on Ukraine’s specific environment and climate, including relevant elements for the country’s reconstruction.
110 articles in 55 journals by 744 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Highly resolved satellite-remote-sensing-based land-use-change inventory yields weaker surface-albedo-induced global cooling, Jian et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-25-4251-2025
Internal Wind Driven Ocean Circulation Variability Delays the Time of Emergence of Externally Forced Sea Surface Temperature Trends, Larson & McMonigal, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl111878
On the movement of atmospheric blocking systems and the associated temperature responses, , Journal of Development and Social Sciences Open Access pdf 10.47205/jdss.2021(2-iv)74
Roles of sea ice and seasonal heat storage in determining the seasonal Arctic surface warming are studied with CMIP6 simulations, Wu & Dai, Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-025-96214-0
Towards a New Generation of Impulse-Response Functions for Integrated Earth System Understanding and Climate Change Attribution, Winkler & Sierra, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl112295
Which are the main drivers of global dimming and brightening?, Stamatis et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108140
Observations of climate change, effects
Climate Change Increases Energy Demand and Cost in Texas, Dessler, Weather, Climate, and Society Open Access 10.1175/wcas-d-24-0057.1
Increasing Synchrony of Extreme Heat and Precipitation Events Under Climate Warming, Tang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl113021
Shifting of the Zone of Occurrence of Extreme Weather Event—Heat Waves, Tyagi et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8856
Svalbard’s Record-Breaking Arctic Summer 2024: Anomalies Beyond Climatological Warming Trends, van den Broek et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl115015
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
Development of a high-resolution dataset of future monthly surface solar radiation by combining CMIP6 projections and satellite-based retrievals, He et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.02.007
Wide-swath satellite altimetry unveils global submesoscale ocean dynamics, Archer et al., Nature Open Access 10.1038/s41586-025-08722-8
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Global assessment of historical changes in extreme fire weather: Insight from CMIP6 ensembles and implications for probabilistic attribution to global warming, Liu et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104822
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024
Climate Models Underestimate Global Decreases in High-Cloud Amount With Warming, Wilson Kemsley et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl113316
Filtering CMIP6 models in the Euro-Mediterranean based on a circulation patterns approach, ME et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100765
Sub-hourly precipitation and rainstorm event profiles in a convection-permitting multi-GCM ensemble, Hundhausen et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100764
Cryosphere & climate change
A Frontal Ablation Dataset for 49 Tidewater Glaciers in Greenland, Fahrner et al., Scientific Data Open Access 10.1038/s41597-025-04948-3
Atmospheric Ozonolysis of Allyl Sulfides: Theoretical and Experimental Study of Kinetics and Product Yields in the Presence and Absence of an OH Radical Scavenger, Cardona et al., Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2025.121242
Dynamic changes and regional differences in permafrost active layer thickness along the Qinghai-Tibet Highway from 2004 to 2023, Li et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110547
Improved Method for Estimating Chlorine Depletion in Sea Salt Aerosols Using Single Particle Aerosol Mass Spectrometer, Zhang et al., Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2025.121243
Increasing the Glen–Nye Power-Law Exponent Accelerates Ice-Loss Projections for the Amundsen Sea Embayment, West Antarctica, Getraer & Morlighem Morlighem, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl112516
Patterns of Snow Drought Under Climate Change: From Dry to Warm Dominance, Wang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl114641
Regional conditions determine thresholds of accelerated Antarctic basal melt in climate projection, Song et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-025-02306-0
Sea ice in 2024, Roach & Meier Song Weijer Ermakov Stroeve Bi Kujala Høyland, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43017-025-00662-1
Sea level & climate change
Sea level rise in 2024, Hamlington et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-025-00667-w
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
A warming pulse in the Antarctic continent changed the landscape during the Middle Ages, Forte et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02259-4
Tropical Atlantic Temperature and Hydrologic Change During the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, Howard et al., Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology 10.1029/2024pa004939
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
A call for wildlife conservation policy evolution: climate change and community-based natural resource management, Heffernan, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2025.2491540
Assessing the Potential Distribution of Pseudoechthistatus (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) in China Under Climate Change Using Species Distribution Models, Zhang et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.71303
Changes in quantity and timing of foliar and reproductive phenology of tropical dry-forest trees under a warming and drying climate, Lai et al., Journal of Ecology Open Access 10.1111/1365-2745.70044
Distribution Dynamics of Wide-Ranged and Narrow-Ranged Species From the Pliocene to the Future: Insights From Asian Endemic Holcoglossum (Orchidaceae), Zhang et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.71301
Effects of climate change and El Niño anomalies on historical declines, extinctions, and disease emergence in Brazilian amphibians, Ferrante et al., Conservation Biology 10.1111/cobi.70024
Enhanced vegetation productivity driven primarily by rate not duration of carbon uptake, Liu et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02311-3
Evidence of rare occurrences of the Phoenix effect in the Hawaiian corals Porites compressa and Montipora capitata following mortality induced by a marine heatwave, Jones & Barott, PeerJ Open Access 10.7717/peerj.19225
Evolutionarily distinct lineages of a migratory bird of prey show divergent responses to climate change, Ferrer Obiol et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-58617-5
Extreme compound events in the equatorial and South Atlantic, Rodrigues et al., Open Access pdf 10.21203/rs.3.rs-4863778/v1
Global vegetation dynamics under decreased terrestrial water storage: Insights into water stress response, Yang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110549
Heat shock transcription factor-mediated thermal tolerance and cell size plasticity in marine diatoms, Huang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-58547-2
Highly Conserved Ecosystems Facing Climate Change: Rapid Shifts in Odonata Assemblages of Central European Bogs, Šigutová et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70183
Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activity on the Habitat Distribution of Metasequoia glyptostroboides, Li et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.71269
Increased Growth Temperatures Alter Arctic Plant Responses to Heat Wave and Drought, Contreras?Serrano et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70187
Insights on Climate Risks to the Central African Forest Ecosystems: An Interdisciplinary Review, Burgin et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access 10.1002/cli2.70010
Migratory Birds Advance Spring Arrival and Egg-Laying in the Arctic, Mostly by Travelling Faster, Lameris et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70158
Past and future climate change in the Zagros region of western Iran, Attarod et al., Anthropocene 10.1016/j.ancene.2025.100475
Potential vegetation greenness changes in the permafrost areas over the Tibetan Plateau under future climate warming, Chen et al., Global and Planetary Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104833
Potentially suitable areas for Ricania speculum (Hemiptera: Ricaniidae) in China under climate change, Feng et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.3389/fevo.2025.1549532
Tracing Macroalgal-Induced Changes in Carbon Dynamics of High-Arctic Fjords Using Biomarker Fingerprinting, Roy et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2024jc021900
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
Carbon uptake rate dominates changes in vegetation productivity over time, , Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02316-y
Global carbon emissions and decarbonization in 2024, Deng et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-025-00658-x
Impact of livelihood development on CO2 emissions: empirical evidence from Yangtze River delta urban agglomeration, Zhu & Lin, Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1523850
Mapping Peatland Distribution and Quantifying Peatland Below-Ground Carbon Stocks in Colombia’s Eastern Lowlands, Uhde et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2024jg008505
Modelling decadal trends and the impact of extreme events on carbon fluxes in a temperate deciduous forest using a terrestrial biosphere model, Thum et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-22-1781-2025
Non-Native Earthworms Alter Carbon Sequestration in Arctic Tundra Ecosystems, Jonsson et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2024jg008598
Recent intensified riverine CO2 emission across the Northern Hemisphere permafrost region, Mu et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-58716-3
South Asia’s Ecosystems Are a Net Carbon Sink, But the Region Is a Major Net GHG Source to the Atmosphere, Jain et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access 10.1029/2024gb008261
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
Comparative analysis of industrialization potentials of direct air capture technologies, Koch & Dittmeyer, Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1558396
Exploring Site-Specific Carbon Dioxide Removal Options With Storage or Sequestration in the Marine Environment – The 10 Mt CO2 yr−1 Removal Challenge for Germany, Yao et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004902
Synergies of storing hydrogen at the crest of CO2${rm CO}&{2}$ or other gas storage, Rhouma et al., Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology Open Access pdf 10.1002/ghg.2278
Decarbonization
Cost Effectivities Analysis of Perovskite Solar Cells: Will it Outperform Crystalline Silicon Ones?, Liu et al., Nano Open Access 10.1007/s40820-025-01744-x
H2 and CO2 network strategies for the European energy system, Hofmann et al., Nature Energy Open Access 10.1038/s41560-025-01752-6
In-situ performance investigation of the world’s pilot canal top solar PV system in India, Makhija & Bohra, Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101716
Knowledge is power? Information, partisan cleavages, and support for energy infrastructure, Struthers et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2025.103976
Retrofitting Low Carbon Aviation Fuels Processes From Natural Gas to Renewables Energy-Based Systems, Abdelkarim et al., Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology Open Access 10.1002/ghg.2340
Spatial and temporal dynamics of solar energy resources in China and forecast of future solar radiation, Zhou et al., Journal of Atmospheric and Solar 10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106463
Geoengineering climate
Emission offsets by albedo manipulations strategies based on bright materials and greening in urban areas assessed by hyperspectral remote sensing, Carotenuto et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102357
Investigation of the Sensitivity of Tropical Cyclogenesis to Aerosol Intervention, Tran et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2024jd041600
Black carbon
Radiative effects of black carbon in the Arctic due to recent extreme summer fires, CHEN et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.003
Climate change communications & cognition
Building winning climate coalitions: Evidence from U.S. states, Trachtman et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114628
Eco-emotions: validation of the multi-dimensional inventory of climate emotions in an Australian sample, Rice et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1560820
Young people’s conceptions of political agency in relation to climate change, Rebelo et al., Environmental Politics Open Access 10.1080/09644016.2025.2489206
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Climate change contributes to the decline in off-reservation tribal harvest availability in the Great Lakes region, Nyblade et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02233-0
Crop pest responses to global changes in climate and land management, Ma et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-025-00652-3
Efficient agronomic practices narrow yield gaps and alleviate climate change impacts on winter wheat production in China, Gong et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02280-7
Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024
Potentially suitable areas for Ricania speculum (Hemiptera: Ricaniidae) in China under climate change, Feng et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.3389/fevo.2025.1549532
Rural Farmer-Managed Wetland Agroecosystems Promote Climate Resilience in Semi-Arid Savannah: Case of Nyororo Wetland, Mberengwa District, Zimbabwe, Manyakaidze et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access 10.1002/cli2.70011
Scaling agroforestry through payments for ecosystem services: a scoping review, Mayr et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2025.2490205
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
A Sandwich-Like Pattern of Eastern China Summer Precipitation Change Projected by CMIP6 Models, Liu et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8869
Global increases of salt intrusion in estuaries under future environmental conditions, Lee et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-58783-6
Lake surface water temperature in 2024, Shi et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43017-025-00654-1
Observational analysis of long-term streamflow response to flash drought in the Mississippi River Basin, Sophia et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100762
Rapid decline of Caspian Sea level threatens ecosystem integrity, biodiversity protection, and human infrastructure, Court et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02212-5
Thermodynamic and Dynamic Changes in the Japan Sea Polar Air Mass Convergence Zone and Its Associated Heavy Snowfall Under Warmer Climate, Nakamura et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2024jd042369
Climate change economics
Beyond borders: Unveiling trade-attributed greenhouse gas inequality under global value chains, Zhen et al., Global Environmental Change 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.102997
Climate Reparations for a Just Response to Climate Change: A Review of Historical Responsibility and Future Implications, Mohan, WIREs Climate Change 10.1002/wcc.70007
Climate change mitigation public policy research
Assembling solar energy, agriculture, and shorebirds: Coexisting energy landscapes with typhoons and wetlands, Yang, Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104061
Atomic rivers. The (Un)sustainability of nuclear power in an age of climate change, Gutting et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114631
Can citizen-financed photovoltaic projects support the energy transition? Experimental evidence from Swiss households, Sierro & Moser, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104035
Differences in vehicle electrification policies and optimal transition periods across countries, Tokito & Nakamoto, Journal of Industrial Ecology Open Access 10.1111/jiec.70028
Electricity decarbonisation targets and the distribution dilemma, Fearn, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114625
Expansive climate governance: advancing transformative climate justice through the six pillars of climate action, Ciplet, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2025.2486369
Expert Assessments of Maritime Shipping Decarbonization Pathways by 2030 and 2050, Laskar et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005255
Integrating citizens’ assemblies into local climate governance: Lessons from a UK case study, Moseley et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104052
Partisan energy preferences in the United States: Republicans prioritize price, Democrats also consider renewables, Wu, Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2025.103997
Smart, circular and renewable: The role of cooperative governance in accelerating a sustainable energy transition, Van Opstal et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104049
The limitations of the one-stop-shop approach: How local experiences shaped opposition to the Norwegian wind power permitting system, Gulbrandsen, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104048
The Power of Peers: a spatial analysis of nationally determined contributions, Van Coppenolle, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2025.2489738
Transparent communication for residential heating decarbonization: A content analysis of heat pump marketing in Canada, Mikhail et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104066
Unilateral climate policy design should account for the effectiveness of different anti-leakage policies, Li et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02258-5
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Changing climate in Italian cities and Italian building regulations: Analysis focused on future climate change scenarios, Berti et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102408
Current Interventions Are Inadequate to Maintain Cities’ Resilience During Concurrent Drought and Excessive Heat, Back et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005208
How to avoid the risk of maladaptation? From a conceptual understanding to a systematic approach for analyzing potential adverse effects in adaptation actions, Higuera Roa et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change Open Access 10.1007/s11027-025-10217-w
Regional governance solutions for sea-level rise adaptation: Perspectives from Humboldt Bay, California, Orth-Gordinier & Richmond, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104053
Scientometric insights into urban sustainability: exploring the vulnerability-adaptation-settlements nexus for climate resilience, Jiang et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1596271
Social resilience research on climate-related hazards: Trends, accomplishments and shortcomings, Eriksen & Simon, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000496
Climate change impacts on human health
A conceptual framework to improve climate-resilient health among Indigenous communities, Perera et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104069
A longitudinal study of heatwave-health vulnerability in Australia, Amoatey et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102346
Climate change & geopolitics
Phase-out clubs: an effective tool for global climate governance?, Koppenborg, Environmental Politics Open Access 10.1080/09644016.2025.2483070
Climate change impacts on human culture
Understanding cultural losses and damages induced by climate change in the Pacific region: evidence from Fiji, Gatiso et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2025.2488989
Other
Record-Breaking Warm Late-Winter Over Antarctica in 2024: The Role of Western Pacific Warm Pool and Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Zhai et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl114528
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
Interconnected Disaster Risks 2025. Turning Over a New Leaf, United Nations University
Climate change is intensifying, yet fossil fuel use and emissions are still reaching new heights. Species are going extinct at unprecedented rates, yet we continue to destroy ecosystems. More than two billion tonnes of household waste are produced each year and cause harm globally, yet the amount is projected to double by 2050. Despite decades of warnings by scientists, new negative extremes make the news nearly every day. Scientists have also told us what needs to change: Stop using fossil fuels. Protect and restore ecosystems. Live sustainably. Nevertheless, we are making fairly little progress towards such goals. This begs the question, if we know what we need to do, why aren’t we doing it? Previous editions of the Interconnected Disaster Risks report have analysed how the disasters we see are interconnected, and what risk tipping points we are going to reach if humanity continues to weaken the systems we all depend on. This year’s edition seeks to pick up where the previous editions left off by asking the central question on many people’s minds: how do we change course?
Projected Impacts of Repealing the Section 45Y and 48E Technology-Neutral Clean Electricity Tax Credits, Bergman et al., Resources for the Future
The Inflation Reduction Act replaced an assortment of technology-specific tax credits for clean electricity with two “technology-neutral” tax credits, the 45Y and 48E tax credits (named after their sections in the tax code). The 45Y tax credit is a “production” tax credit, which pays a set amount for every unit of electricity generated, whereas the 48E tax credit is an “investment” tax credit that pays a fraction of the capital cost for a qualifying generation or storage technology. As the new administration and Congress contemplate proposals for the budget reconciliation process, these and other tax credits in the Inflation Reduction Act are on the table for potential repeal. In this issue brief, we explore the consequences of a repeal of these tax credits for retail electricity prices, consumer electricity bills, government expenditures, clean electricity, and emissions.
A Wide Array of Resources is Needed to Meet Growing U.S. Energy Demand, Newell et al., ConservAmerica
U.S. electricity demand is already growing and is expected to grow exponentially over the next decade. This economic analysis finds that to meet demand affordably and reliably, the country needs a portfolio of all forms of energy. The reality is that some energy resources are available now, while others will take more time to deploy. Due to increased demand from data centers, reshoring of manufacturing, electrification of industry, and growing oil and gas extraction, the U.S. is projected to need 50% more annual electric energy production in 2035 than it does today. Serving this growth will require much more supply, and traditional supply sources alone cannot meet the need. Renewables and energy storage are already in development and can be deployed relatively quickly. There is less natural gas generation in development, and the turbine supply chain is limited. Eliminating clean energy credits would increase going-forward generation system costs by 14%, raising electricity prices for American consumers. By 2035, 3.8 million job-years would be lost as employers spend more on electricity, capital investment declines, and higher electricity rates reduce consumer spending in other sectors (on average, this is equivalent to total US employment being 380,000 lower for 10 years in a row). U.S. economic growth would be depressed due to a $250 billion reduction in investment in the power sector, a $510 billion decrease in GDP, and a $270 billion decline in household consumption.
Sea Space Analysis for Wave and Tidal Energy, Lee et al., California Energy Commission
The authors analyze suitable sea space for deploying wave and tidal energy projects in California state and federal waters. In identifying suitable sea space, the authors consider existing data and information on wave and tidal energy resource potential and commercial viability of current technologies, the protection of cultural and biological resources, monitoring and adaptive management techniques, and required transmission facilities and infrastructure.
Status of Environment and Climate in Ukraine, Belis et al., European Commission
The authors provide an overall picture of the status of the environment and climate – air quality, emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases – (GHG), forests, soil, and marine environment in Ukraine. The analysis is based on available studies. The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has exacerbated pre-existing challenges related to environmental monitoring and the enforcement of environmental regulations, further complicating this assessment. The information summarised by the authors provides for the first time the basis for assessing the impact of war on Ukraine’s specific environment and climate, including relevant elements for the country’s reconstruction.
Energy and AI, D_Ambrosio et al., International Energy Agency
The development and uptake of artificial intelligence (AI) has accelerated in recent years – elevating the question of what widespread deployment of the technology will mean for the energy sector. There is no AI without energy – specifically electricity for data centers. At the same time, AI could transform how the energy industry operates if it is adopted at scale. However, until now, policymakers and other stakeholders have often lacked the tools to analyze both sides of this issue due to a lack of comprehensive data. The authors aim to fill this gap based on new global and regional modeling and datasets, as well as extensive consultation with governments and regulators, the tech sector, the energy industry, and international experts. They include projections for how much electricity AI could consume over the next decade, as well as which energy sources are set to help meet it. They also analyze what the uptake of AI could mean for energy security, emissions, innovation, and affordability.
The Green Gender Gap: How Women are Shaping the Climate Vote, Environmental Voter Project
The authors present key findings from 21 states where they built predictive models to identify registered voters who have a high likelihood of listing either “climate change” or “clean air, clean water, and the environment” as their top political priority. Using the predictive modeling data, the authors identify a dramatic gender gap among climate voters in all 21 states studied — with women significantly more likely than men to name climate change or environmental issues as their top political priority. They also found that this gender gap is most pronounced among the youngest voters (aged 18-24) and among Black voters.
Preliminary Results of the Automated Detection of Climate Misinformation in French Television and Radio, Data for Good, Quota Climat, and Science Feedback
The authors lay the foundational groundwork for the international initiative on the automated detection of climate disinformation, known as “Climate Safeguards.” The results presented here were initially generated using a preliminary AI-based method and subsequently validated manually. As such, they do not yet reflect the full accuracy or capabilities of the more advanced models and methods currently under development. Over a three-month broadcasting period, 128 instances of climate disinformation were detected – equivalent to roughly 10 cases per week. This challenges the common belief that disinformation is confined to social media, revealing that traditional media are now significantly affected by climate disinformation. This trend is particularly concerning given the continued high level of trust in traditional news media. It increases the risk of normalizing misleading narratives, blurring the line between fact and opinion, and ultimately weakening the e foundations of our democratic society.
The Limits of Carbon Markets as a Solution to the Climate Crisis, James Gathii, AfronomicsLaw
The author argues that the climate crisis has provided the global finance industry an opportunity to make exorbitant profits from the majority of Black and Brown countries in the Global South. He shows how the global finance industry is leveraging its muscle over climate-vulnerable and heavily indebted countries in the Global South through complex financial transactions. These transactions commodify nature and the biodiversity resources of these Global South nations. In return, these countries borrow capital to address the climate crisis and pay off their debts. This borrowing that invariably comes at high interest rates, especially through bond instruments, gives the global finance industry power to price biodiversity resources, such as forests, as investible assets. These instruments include climate bonds; green, blue, and sustainability-linked bonds; and debt-for nature swaps (DNSs).
Exploring the Water Footprint of “Green” Hydrogen for Power Generation in California, Rincon et al, The Luskin Center for Innovation, University of California, Los Angeles
Hydrogen, as an emerging alternative fuel source, holds the potential to significantly contribute to California’s climate goals. Its carbon-free production using renewable electricity to split water into hydrogen and oxygen, known as ‘green’ hydrogen, offers a promising path towards reducing greenhouse gases. The authors examined the water footprint of green hydrogen production for power generation in California. The authors found that while green hydrogen has the potential to play a significant role in California’s renewable energy future, its water demands, costs, and local impacts are not well understood and raise substantial concerns, particularly for environmental justice communities. The authors urge local and state leaders to proceed cautiously before fully committing to hydrogen as a climate solution.
European State of the Climate Report 2024, Copernicus Climate Change Service and the World Meteorological Organization, European Union
Europe experienced its warmest year on record, with the second-highest number of heat-stress days and tropical nights. The area of Europe seeing days with temperatures below freezing is decreasing, and annual sea-surface temperature was the highest on record for the European region and the Mediterranean Sea. Western Europe also saw a particularly wet year, and Europe experienced relatively widespread flooding.
Nuclear energy’s role in powering data center growth, Hardin et al, Deloitte Research Center for Energy & Industrials
After decades of relatively stable electricity demand, the United States is now experiencing a surge in power consumption, driven primarily by the rapid growth of data centers and compounded by industrial modernization. As data centers increase in both size and number, their projected energy consumption is likely to skyrocket, which could place immense pressure on existing energy resources and infrastructure. According to Deloitte estimates, the data center electricity demand could rise five-fold by 2035, reaching 176 GW. Nuclear energy presents a potential solution for meeting some of the growing electricity demands of data centers, with its reliable and clean energy profile. It provided over 19% of the United States’ electricity in 2024, despite representing less than 8% of the nation’s total operating capacity
Offshore Wind Energy: Actions Needed to Address Gaps in Interior’s Oversight of Development, Rusco et al, Government Accountability Office
Offshore wind energy development in the U.S. is expanding. There are active wind farms and construction in the Atlantic and planned development off the Pacific coast and in the Gulf of Mexico. BOEM and BSEE are responsible for permitting and oversight of offshore wind projects. Numerous other federal agencies provide input throughout the process. As of January 2025, BOEM had granted 39 offshore wind leases to commercial developers, but on January 20, 2025, the President issued a memorandum that, among other things, prohibits agencies from new leasing, permits, or approvals for offshore wind projects pending a review of federal wind leasing and permitting practices. As the pace of offshore wind development has accelerated, state and local communities, Tribes, and non-government entities could experience the potential effects of offshore wind development. GAO was asked to review offshore wind development in federal waters. This report examines (1) what is known about the potential impacts of offshore wind energy development, and (2) what mechanisms BOEM, in coordination with other agencies, has in place to oversee offshore wind energy development and to what extent they address potential impacts. GAO recommends that Congress consider amending language in legislation to address BOEM’s limitations to providing adequate support for tribal capacity-building. GAO is also making five recommendations to BOEM and BSEE, including that they address gaps in oversight related to (1) tribal consultation and incorporation of Indigenous knowledge; (2) consideration of input from the fishing industry; (3) guidance for communication and engagement plans; and (4) resources for oversight in the North Atlantic region. Interior agreed with all five recommendations.
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