Skeptical Science New Research for Week #17 2025
Posted on 24 April 2025 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Internal variability effect doped by climate change drove the 2023 marine heat extreme in the North Atlantic, Guinaldo et al., Communications Earth & Environment
The year 2023 shattered numerous heat records both globally and regionally. We here focus on the drivers of the unprecedented warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies which started in the North Atlantic Ocean in early summer and persisted later on. Evidence is provided that 2023 should be interpreted as an extreme event in a warmer world because of superimposed internal variability on top of human forcing, which altogether, made the 2023 event all-time high due to extreme air-sea surface fluxes in the subtropics and eastern basin. The effect of internal variability has been considerably boosted by the long-term ocean stratification increase due to combined anthropogenically-driven ocean warming and multidecadal variability. The 2023 event would have been impossible to occur without anthropogenically-driven climate change but at the current warmer background climate state, it is assessed as a decadal-type event when considering the full North Atlantic ocean and a centennial event in the subtropics and eastern basin. Considering the regional distribution of anomalies is crucial for risk assessment in a warming climate.
Reply to Pielke (2025), Willoughby et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology:
Pielke deprecates both the ICAT database, which he once recommended, and U.S. tropical cyclone (TC) damage estimates from the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI). We do not share these views. Willoughby et al. (hereafter WL24) is based upon ICAT damage for 1900–2017, both then-year and normalized for inflation, population, and individual wealth, extended to 2022 with National Hurricane Center (NHC) official figures from NCEI. Pielke represents the data of Weinkle et al. (hereafter WK18) as a superior source. We find troubling anomalies in the WK18 data. The issue is that WK18 find that normalized TC damage is constant, but WL24 find that it is increasing. Here, we replicate the WL24 analysis with WK18 data and find a statistically significant growth of then-year damage relative to the U.S. economy, a statistically significant increase in the occurrence of the most damaging TCs, and a 0.6% per year increase in TC normalized damage. The last of these is not statistically significant because of the large variance due to the modulation of TC impacts by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Thus, the increase in U.S. TC damage is sufficiently robust to survive the shortcomings of both datasets.
Discerning the Elevated Risk of Compound Extreme Heat Stress Followed by Extreme Precipitation Events in the Socially Vulnerable Communities in the Upper Midwest, Khan et al., International Journal of Climatology
Compound extreme events have the potential to yield severe socio-economic repercussions. This study delves into compound extreme precipitation events following extreme heat stress (CEPHS), an aspect that needs more extensive examination within the compound event framework in the upper Midwestern United States. Results reveal a significant increasing trend in CEPHS occurrences, particularly in Kentucky, lower, central, and northern parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin, central parts of Missouri, northern parts of Michigan, and western and north-eastern parts of Iowa from 1979 to 2021. Moreover, we observed significantly higher intensities of extreme precipitation events following extreme heat stress compared to those occurring independently, predominantly in the central and northern parts of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio during the same period. Our analysis also underscores a robust association between CEPHS and convective available potential energy and convective inhibition. These insights offer valuable implications for flood hazard management strategies under climate change within the region.
This work was supported by the National Institute of Food and Agriculture, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Hatch project (No. ILLU-741-337).
British heatwave discourse (1985–2023): from ice cream to armageddon?, van Dooremalen & Smith, Environmental Sociology:
How has public discourse about climate change evolved? This paper answers this question through the paradigmatic case of British heatwaves. These are traditionally considered a fortunate break from dull weather, making them a least likely case for the emergency of a discourse of doom. With a topic-modeling analysis of British national newspaper articles on heatwaves from 1985 until 2023 (N = 35,127), we show that a longstanding Romantic heatwave discourse eventually buckled, and that Apocalypticism finally became the dominant genre in the last decade. A supplementary hermeneutic analysis then indicates and explains complexity within this broad trend. 1980s stories already noted routine heatwave problems, while many recent ones continue depicting positive lifestyle implications. Within the Apocalyptic genre itself climate change is today deemed a factual causal force, whereas in the 1980s and 1990s it was a possible carrier of future dangers. In connecting the genre perspective from literary theory to big data method topic modelling, our approach is parsimonious, novel and replicable in other national contexts.
Enhanced flood synchrony and downstream severity in the Delaware River under rising temperatures, Cooper et al., Communications Earth & Environment:
River floods threaten life and economic stability, with risks increasing globally, especially in densely populated coastal areas. In mountainous coastal watersheds like the Delaware River Basin, rising temperature is projected to reduce snowpack, reshaping upstream–downstream flood dynamics. However, the impact on flood synchronization between upland tributaries and estuarine mainstems remains poorly understood. Using multidecadal streamflow simulations from a high-resolution hydrological model, we find significant increases in the frequency and magnitude of synchronized floods under future warming scenarios, particularly severe floods (above the 75th percentile). Under higher warming scenarios, snowpack and rain-on-snow floods in headwater subbasins nearly vanish. Surprisingly, this regime shift amplifies estuarine flooding by enhancing synchronization between historically snow-dominated subbasins and their downstream counterparts. Despite intensified synchronization and flood magnitude, cold-season flood risk declines due to fewer rain-on-snow events. Conversely, summer floods grow larger, more frequent, and synchronized, driving a seasonal reconfiguration of flood risk that should be considered in future mitigation strategies.
The work presented in this manuscript was supported by the MultiSector Dynamics program area of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research as part of the multi-program, collaborative Integrated Coastal Modeling (ICoM) project. All model simulations were performed using resources available through Research Computing at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.
From this week’s government/NGO section:
Record-High 48% Call Global Warming a Serious Threat, Gallup
A record-high 48% of U.S. adults anticipate that global warming will, at some point, pose a serious threat to themselves or their way of life, up from 44% saying this a year ago. The current reading is two percentage points above the prior high in 2023, following a long-term increase from 25% in 1997. The latest results are from Gallup’s March 3-16 Environment survey, conducted about a month after wildfires ravaged parts of southern California in January. This year’s installment of the annual survey also comes after numerous extreme weather events occurred around the country last summer and fall, including major flooding in North Carolina in September stemming from Hurricane Helene. Thirty-seven percent of Americans in March said they have personally been affected by an extreme weather event in the past two years.
Drill More, Pay More. America’s New Energy Paradigm, Jeremy Symons, Center for Energy and Environmental Analysis
Welcome to the “drill more, pay more” era. The United States has entered a new energy paradigm characterized by rising domestic energy prices alongside rising energy production. Despite record-high natural gas production levels, US wholesale natural gas prices (Henry Hub) increased 93% in the first quarter of 2025 (Q1) compared to the same period last year. Record natural gas exports are driving higher prices and volatility. Rising natural gas prices are a triple blow to US consumers. President Trump’s “unleashing American energy” agenda will likely push prices higher, benefitting oil and gas producers but increasing costs to US energy consumers.
123 articles in 62 journals by 736 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Circulation and Cloud Responses to Patterned SST Warming, Mackie et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl112543
Climate-Scale Variability in Soil Moisture Explained by a Simple Theory, Gallagher & McColl, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl115044
Contribution of Arctic Cyclones of Different Origins to Poleward Heat Transport to the Arctic, Yang et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0445.1
Declining soil evaporation on a drying earth, Chen & Wei, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110550
Weakening of the Arctic Water Outflow From the Barents Sea and Consequences on the Fram Strait Warming, Challet et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2024jc021054
Observations of climate change, effects
Distinctive Pattern of Global Warming in Ocean Heat Content, Trenberth et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0609.1
Intensifying Seasonality of the Global Water Cycle as Indicated by Sea Surface Salinity, Bingham & Bayler Bayler, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl111608
Internal variability effect doped by climate change drove the 2023 marine heat extreme in the North Atlantic, Guinaldo et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02197-1
Observations reveal changing coastal storm extremes around the United States, Morim et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02315-z
Rapid flips between warm and cold extremes in a warming world, Wu et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-58544-5
Reply to Pielke (2025), Willoughby et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-24-0236.1
Warming leads to both earlier and later snowmelt floods over the past 70 years, Guo et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-58832-0
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
Stratospheric Water Vapor Beyond NASA’s Aura MLS: Assimilating SAGE III/ISS Profiles for a Continued Climate Record, Knowland et al., Open Access pdf 10.22541/essoar.170914541.10164830/v1
SWOT satellite provides a finer view of climate-driving ocean dynamics, Carli, Nature 10.1038/d41586-025-00820-x
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
A Study on the Southern Ocean Upwelling Over the 21st Century Under a High-Emission Scenario, Liao et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2023jc020765
Anthropogenic Influence on the Compound Hot and Dry Event in Summer 2022 in the Tibetan Plateau Based on Statistical Downscaling CMIP6 Models, Xue et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8873
Future changes in tropical cyclone tracks over the western North Pacific under climate change, Cao et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access 10.1038/s41612-025-01036-6
Projection of precipitation and temperature in major cities of Pakistan using multi-model ensembles, Shah & Sharifi, Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102430
The Projected Changes in the Surface Energy Budget of the CMIP5 and EURO-CORDEX Models: Are We Heading toward Wetter Growing Seasons in Central Europe?, Skalák et al., Journal of Hydrometeorology Open Access 10.1175/jhm-d-24-0017.1
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024
Enforcing Equity in Neural Climate Emulators, Yik & Silva, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl113050
Ocean wave spectrum bias correction through energy conservation for climate change impacts, Lira Loarca & Besio, Ocean Science Open Access 10.5194/os-21-767-2025
On the inter-model spread of tropical cyclone genesis frequency over the North Atlantic in CMIP6 models, Wang et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108128
On the role of moist and dry processes in atmospheric blocking biases in the Euro-Atlantic region in CMIP6, Dolores-Tesillos et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2024-2878
Uncertainty Analysis of Surface Downward Longwave Radiation Models Based on Cloud Base Temperature, Yu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2024jd042554
Cryosphere & climate change
Glacier damage evolution over ice flow timescales, Ranganathan et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2024-1850
Poleward shift of subtropical highs drives Patagonian glacier mass loss, Noël et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-58974-1
Subglacial Precipitates Record Antarctic Ice Sheet Response to Southern Ocean Warming, Gagliardi et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl110756
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Contrasting dynamics of past climate states and critical transitions via dimensional analysis, Alberti et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-025-96432-6
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
A review on atmospheric aerosols and dusts in different tropical forest ecosystems and policy recommendations toward climate resilience, Bridhikitti et al., Atmospheric Environment Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2025.121215
Climate change is projected to shrink phylogenetic endemism of Neotropical frogs, Alves-Ferreira et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-59036-2
Habitat suitability modelling and range change dynamics of Bergenia stracheyi under projected climate change scenarios, Wani et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.3389/fevo.2025.1561640
Idiosyncratic patterns of chlorophyll-a anomalies in response to marine heatwaves in the Adriatic Sea (Mediterranean Sea) over the last two decades, Motta et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107144
Indigenous peoples and local community reports of climate change impacts on biodiversity, Cruz?Gispert et al., Conservation Biology Open Access 10.1111/cobi.70033
Metabolomic and physiological analyses of two picochlorophytes from distinct oceanic latitudes under future ocean acidification and warming, Tan et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107095
Post-fire spectral recovery and driving factors across the boreal and temperate forests, Li et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 10.1098/rstb.2023.0453
Synergistic effects of the antibiotic ciprofloxacin and a simulated heatwave on the Baltic Sea dinoflagellate Apocalathium malmogiense, Roth et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107155
The heatwaves weaken the effect of light on the growth, photosynthesis, and reproductive capacity of Ulva prolifera, Liu et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107163
Tree species composition governs urban phenological responses to warming, Wu et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-58927-8
Unveiling growth and carbon composition of macroalgae with different strategies under global change, de la Hoz et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107128
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
A synthesis of freshwater forested wetland soil organic carbon storage, Sapkota et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2025.1528440
Additionality Revisited for Blue Carbon Ecosystems: Ensuring Real Climate Mitigation, Williamson et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70181
Carbon fluxes controlled by land management and disturbances at a cluster of long-term ecosystem monitoring sites in Central Europe, Grünwald et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110533
Constraining Wetland and Landfill Methane Emission Signatures Through Atmospheric Methane Clumped Isotopologue Measurements, Sun et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2024jg008249
Disentangling the Effects of Global and Regional Drivers on Diverse Long-Term pH Trends in Coastal Waters, Li et al., AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2024av001350
Global Declines in Mangrove Area and Carbon-Stock From 1985 to 2020, Ju et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl115303
Measurement report: Greenhouse gas profiles and age of air from the 2021 HEMERA-TWIN balloon launch, Schuck et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-25-4333-2025
Modelling the effect of climate–substrate interactions on soil organic matter decomposition with the Jena Soil Model, Pallandt et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-22-1907-2025
Non-Floodplain Wetlands Are Carbon-Storage Powerhouses Across the United States, Lane et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005594
Ocean Carbon Export Flux Projections in CMIP6 Earth System Models Across Multiple Export Depth Horizons, Walker & Palevsky Palevsky, Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access 10.1029/2024gb008329
Plant life form determines net ecosystem CO2 exchange in a salt marsh under precipitation changes, Liang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110572
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
The caatinga dry tropical forest: A highly efficient carbon sink in South America, Mendes et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110573
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
3D seismic structural characterization of faulted subsurface reservoirs in the northern East Cameron Block, Gulf of America continental shelf: implications for CO2 sequestration, O’Donnell et al., Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access 10.3389/feart.2025.1577336
Rewetting Boreal Peatlands: Restoring Carbon Function?, Roulet et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70200
Decarbonization
A systematic literature review of bamboo as reinforcement in concrete, et al., Jurnal Kejuruteraan Open Access 10.17576/jkukm-2021-si4(1)-01
Accelerating commercial deployment with hydrogen system testbeds, Love & Mackinnon, Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-025-01758-0
Beyond economies of scale: Learning from construction cost overrun risks and time delays in global energy infrastructure projects, Sovacool & Ryu, Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104057
Impacts of agrisolar co-location on the food–energy–water nexus and economic security, Stid et al., Nature Sustainability Open Access 10.1038/s41893-025-01546-4
Navigating sustainability trade-offs in wind energy governance: The role of environmental regulators, Eitan, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114645
Aerosols
Increasing Coarse Aerosols Mitigated the Warming Effect of Anthropogenic Fine Particle Reductions in Europe, Cui et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006044
Climate change communications & cognition
A review of National Citizens’ Climate Assemblies: learning from deliberative events, Lorenzoni et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2024.2449416
Anticipating the Storm: Expectations (not Experience) of Extreme Weather Predict Public Support for Climate Policies, Bergquist et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102593
Breaking the climate silence: Predictors of discussing global warming with family and friends, Orr et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000538
British heatwave discourse (1985–2023): from ice cream to armageddon?, van Dooremalen & Smith, Environmental Sociology Open Access 10.1080/23251042.2025.2493332
Climate Activist Groups’ Discourses on Science and Knowledge: Merging Rhetorical Strategies with Political Visions, Silva & Carvalho, Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2025.2490960
ClimateMind50+: Development and validation through cognitive interviews of a questionnaire to measure climate change knowledge, concerns, and actions in older adults, Zaninotto et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000568
Investigating climate change perceptions and behaviors from a microscopic perspective in four mountain villages in Taiwan, Chen et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1474188
Out of the labs and into the streets: Effects of climate protests by environmental scientists, Dablander et al., Royal Society Open Science Open Access 10.1098/rsos.241001
Reasonable or radical? First-order, second-order, and meta-stereotypes of different climate activists among the German public and climate activists, , Essays on the Intellectual Powers of Man Open Access 10.1017/cbo9780511997150.008
Toward transformative youth climate justice: Why youth agency is important and six critical areas for transformative youth activism, policy, and research, Tafon & Saunders , PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000472
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Climate extremes are critical to maize yield and will be severer in North China, Wang et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100710
Costs of transitioning the livestock sector to net-zero emissions under future climates, Bilotto et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-59203-5
Does Extreme weather affect the resilience of agricultural economies? Analysis based on agricultural insurance, Zeng et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1551030
Effect of biochar application on yield, soil carbon pools and greenhouse gas emission in rice fields: A global meta-analysis, Wen et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110571
Exploring the climate signal in the variation of winter wheat quality records in the North China Plain, Zhou et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110567
Extending genomic prediction to future climates through crop modelling. A case study on heading time in barley, Paleari et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110560
Implications of Changes in Water Stress and Precipitation Extremes for Cocoa Production in Côte D’ivoire and Ghana, Obahoundje et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8872
Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024
Supplementing Enhanced Weathering With Organic Amendments Accelerates the Net Climate Benefit of Soil Amendments in Rangeland Soils, Anthony et al., AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2024av001480
Water-saving irrigated area expansion hardly enhances crop yield while saving water under climate scenarios in China, Yue et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02279-0
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Enhanced flood synchrony and downstream severity in the Delaware River under rising temperatures, Cooper et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02243-y
Spatiotemporal variations of global precipitation concentration and potential links to flood-drought events in past 70 years, Sun et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108086
Tracking the warning signal of extreme rainstorm and flood events in Haihe River Basin through historical documents, Lyu et al., Anthropocene 10.1016/j.ancene.2025.100471
Warming leads to both earlier and later snowmelt floods over the past 70 years, Guo et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-58832-0
Climate change economics
Carbon prices on the rise? Shedding light on the emerging second EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS 2), Günther et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2025.2485196
Climate-related financial disclosures and firm value: evidence from India, Mondal & Bauri, SN Business & Economics 10.1007/s43546-025-00816-9
Lost and damaged: a systematic review of current loss and damage due to climate change in India, Joshi et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2025.2488382
Out of the blue carbon box: toward investable blue natural capital, Lovelock & Duarte, Biology Letters Open Access 10.1098/rsbl.2024.0648
Climate change mitigation public policy research
Benchmarking and tailoring electric vehicle policies to stimulate adoption, Uratani et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104074
Carbon reduction effects of energy transition strategies: a discussion on multi-stakeholder carbon governance, Wang, Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1573022
Climate risk and green innovation-ESG disconnect: Firm-level evidence from China, Liu et al., Risk Analysis 10.1111/risa.70034
Debates on the future of energy justice: Re-grounding the triumvirate, Santos Ayllón, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104047
Explaining public support for net-zero climate policy instruments: Perceptions of distributive fairness under competing frames, Hoyle & Rhodes, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114644
Future electricity tariffs: designing electricity rates fit for the energy transition, Ribo-Perez et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114596
Made in Australia, used in Asia: Public acceptance and the cable controversy of Australia-Asia PowerLink, a remote solar megaproject, Zander & Garnett, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104079
Moral foundations of energy transitions in the United States: A cross-sector discourse analysis, Ba & Tan, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104090
Political context, carbon dependence, climate vulnerability, and renewable energy consumption in the United States, 2000–2022., Hao, Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104083
Quantification of selected SDGs in the context of China’s climate mitigation pathway, HE et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.006
Responsive nor responsible? Politicians’ climate change policy preferences and public opinion perceptions, Walgrave & Soontjens, Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2025.2492439
“Stretch and transform” for energy justice: Indigenous advocacy for institutional transformative change of electricity in British Columbia, Canada, Hoicka et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114615
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Connecting everyday resistance to staying put in the context of climate change, Santos, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2025.2489105
Estimates of the impact of extreme weather considering climate change on the cooling/heating load of high-speed railway station in China, Li et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101735
How is climate science used to inform national-level adaptation planning in southern Africa?, Craig et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2025.2488988
Measuring climate resilience in low- and middle-income countries using advanced analytical techniques and satellite data: a systematic review, Codyre et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1514423
Navigating and attributing uncertainty in future tropical cyclone risk estimates, Meiler et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adn4607
Optimizing climate risk management practices: a hierarchical classification of TCFD risks in Taiwan’s electronics industry, Hung et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2025.2488242
Stakeholder engagement strategies to build resilience to compound hazards: Engaging community-based organizations in research, Clark et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100693
Climate change impacts on human health
Discerning the Elevated Risk of Compound Extreme Heat Stress Followed by Extreme Precipitation Events in the Socially Vulnerable Communities in the Upper Midwest, Khan et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.8868
Identifying summer energy poverty and public health risks in a temperate climate, Chen et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100698
The Association between Extreme Temperatures and Birth Weight in South Korea, Jung, Weather, Climate, and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-24-0020.1
Understanding urban climate-resilient cyclists: A solution to reducing individual motorized transport, Pitois et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000611
Climate change & geopolitics
How Global South actors frame the conflict between the right to development and climate action? The case of oil extraction in Uganda, Wokuri, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2025.2494774
Other
Carbonates identified by the Curiosity rover indicate a carbon cycle operated on ancient Mars, Tutolo et al., Science 10.1126/science.ado9966
Climate, vegetation, people: disentangling the controls of fire at different timescales, Harrison et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rstb.2023.0464
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Climate-driven systemic risk to the sustainable development goals, Ciullo et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000564
Prevent coastal seawater intrusion in China, Liu et al., Science 10.1126/science.adv5677
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
Small Modular Reactors: A Realist Approach to the Future of Nuclear Power, Robin Gaster, Information Technology and Innovation Foundation
Standard large nuclear reactors will not achieve scale or cost competitiveness with alternative energy sources. The Department of Energy (DOE) should focus its resources on small modular reactors, which are a more promising technology with the potential to achieve price and performance parity. Small modular reactors (SMRs) are the future of nuclear power, and they could become an important strategic export industry in the next two decades. SMRs must get to a sufficient scale so they can become cost-competitive with other energy sources including large reactors, renewables, and fossil fuels. DOE needs to develop independent assessment capabilities for SMRs (and other technologies) that focus on the pathway to price and performance parity (P3). All major investments must be reviewed through the P3 lens. DOE should maintain and expand its strong support for basic and applied nuclear research through the Advanced Reactor Development Program and DOE’s GenIII+ program, including new test and demonstration sites at Idaho National Lab.
Tackling the PJM Electricity Cost Crisis. An Analysis of the Benefits of PJM Interconnection Reform, Chavin et al, Synapse Energy Economics
Electricity customers in the PJM region (which spans all or parts of 13 Mid-Atlantic states and Washington, D.C.) are facing a looming cost crisis stemming from two major issues: (a) worsening barriers to building and connecting new generation resources needed to supply the electric grid, and (b) unprecedented increases in projected electricity demand. Accelerating new resource deployment will be necessary to reliably serve new and existing loads without greatly increasing energy costs to electricity customers. Bringing online more clean energy resources will also be critical to reducing carbon dioxide emissions and meeting state climate goals. However, power companies in the region are grappling with several barriers that impede their ability to connect new resources to the grid, including PJM’s interconnection queue delays, local permitting and siting processes, and global supply chain challenges. The authors conducted a power sector analysis, bill impact analysis, and job impact analysis to understand the benefits of resolving these queue constraints to customers and residents in the PJM states. The analysis shows that if PJM continues down its current path, residential electricity bills in the region are expected to increase by nearly 60 percent by the 2036–2040 period compared to historical levels. However, if PJM adequately implements interconnection reforms to enable the deployment of more cost-effective energy generation, largely comprised of clean energy sources, electricity bills are projected to decrease by 7 percent by the same period.
Connecticut Offshore Wind Supply Chain Assessment: Opportunities and Collaborative Efforts in the Northeast, Xodos and the Connecticut Wind Collaborative
The authors assess the supply chain and regional collaboration opportunities available to the State of Connecticut as it continues to support the development of the offshore wind industry. Additionally, an industry landscape assessment has been provided to build upon the significant work undertaken in the region to date, while providing necessary context on new policy and market drivers so that the results of the assessments herein can be properly contextualized.
Drill More, Pay More. America’s New Energy Paradigm, Jeremy Symons, Center for Energy and Environmental Analysis
Welcome to the “drill more, pay more” era. The United States has entered a new energy paradigm characterized by rising domestic energy prices alongside rising energy production. Despite record-high natural gas production levels, US wholesale natural gas prices (Henry Hub) increased 93% in the first quarter of 2025 (Q1) compared to the same period last year. Record natural gas exports are driving higher prices and volatility. Rising natural gas prices are a triple blow to US consumers. President Trump’s “unleashing American energy” agenda will likely push prices higher, benefitting oil and gas producers but increasing costs to US energy consumers.
Clean Energy Tax Credits: Working for Appalachia, Barnes et al, Appalachian Voices
The authors describe the benefits that federal tax credits for clean energy and energy efficiency are having on nonprofits and businesses throughout Central and Southern Appalachia, specifically Kentucky, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia, and West Virginia. The authors provide an overview of these tax credits, national and state impacts, 20+ project examples, and spotlight installers and key partners from the region.
2025 Climate Scorecard, Law Students for Climate Accountability
The Law Students for Climate Accountability annually publishes the Scorecard to understand the role the legal industry plays in the climate crisis more broadly. The Scorecard ranks the “Vault 100” law firms according to how much fossil fuels work they have engaged in over five years. The Scorecard was designed to draw awareness to the indispensable role law firms play in creating, implementing, and safeguarding fossil fuel projects, as well as protecting the people who profit from them. The 2025 Scorecard includes additional firms in major markets in Africa, Australia, Europe, and North America. It shows that after years of mounting pressure, firms have begun to make marginal progress, finding a decrease in Vault 100 firms’ lobbying on behalf of fossil fuel companies. A new high of 14 firms received an A ranking for 2025.
Decoding the voluntary carbon market in 2024 and beyond, Abatable
The authors found that the impact of high-integrity carbon credit initiatives is beginning to be reflected across the market. The volume of credits retired aligning to the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (IC-VCM) Core Carbon Principle (CCP) or CORSIA quality standards increased from 29% in 2021 to close to 50% in 2024. Buyers are also beginning to pay more for these credits. CCP-labelled credits are commanding an up to $10 price premium in the market. On the market’s supply side, credits issued from carbon project developers are also increasingly aligned with high-integrity initiatives. 56% of the largest 25 developers’ issuances from the last three years are now aligned with these initiatives, compared to 46% in 2022. The increase is more apparent for smaller project developers, with 65% of issuances from the last three years now aligned with high-integrity initiatives compared with 45% in 2022, indicating that buyers looking for quality may need to dig deeper into the market. Remarkably, the scale of carbon market funding deals in 2024 – $16.3bn – was 18 times larger than the activity observed in the credit retirement market, highlighting the strategic significance of long-term engagements in high-integrity carbon credit projects. This underscores the enduring commitment of corporate buyers and large investors to the VCM.
The New Logistics: Electrifying Freight with Microgrids, Rish Ghatigar and Michael Barnard, CleanTechnica
The United States faces a significant challenge in decarbonizing its transportation sector, which accounts for over a third of national greenhouse gas emissions and substantial air pollution. Among freight transportation options, road freight has the conditions for success in decarbonizing using electric trucks. The biggest challenge right now is reliably getting clean electricity into trucks, and the answer is grid-connected microgrids with solar and batteries that can be modularized and incrementally scaled for truck depots and stops. The truck electrification strategy lays out the following seven self-reinforcing actions that collectively overcome challenges related to charging microgrids and enable firms to build and adopt them to profit and expand; design charging microgrids incrementally for scalability; take advantage of pricing flexibility to gain a market edge; focus on charging, not hypothetical benefits; lean into modularity to get big things done; focus on common solutions to enhance charging deployment; target corridors with strong GDP and climate goals; and ensure charging success through stakeholder leadership.
Making it personal. Reframing conversations about DEI and climate change, Gaby Polanco Sorto, Gore Mutual Insurance Company
New surveys reveal that Canadians are closely aligned on issues like climate change and diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI), challenging the narrative of sharp political division. Over 90% of respondents, regardless of political affiliation, support or are neutral about DEI initiatives and climate policies in their workplaces and communities. Support for climate policy spans the political spectrum, including 50% of right-leaning respondents and 74% of those on the left. 81% believe DEI initiatives strengthen relationships across generations, races, and genders, but many worry that some groups—especially older adults and lower-income individuals—are left out of the conversation. 35% say their opinions on climate action have become more positive in the past year, especially due to increasing natural disasters
Liberians call for urgent climate action and international support, Afrobarometer survey shows, Afrobarometer
A majority of Liberians who are aware of climate change want immediate action to address its effects. Climate change-aware citizens call for urgent intervention from both the Liberian government and developed countries to limit climate change, even if the costs are high, and strongly believe that richer countries have a responsibility to help Liberia finance its climate response. Most of those who have heard of climate change say it is already worsening life in the country, with many blaming it on a combination of human activity and natural processes.
The effective impact of behavioral shifts in energy, transport, and food, Kraft-Todd et al, World Resoruces Institute
The authors analyze which individual behavior shifts have the largest “effective impact” on reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Effective impact is a novel measure that combines both theoretical potential (what could happen if everyone adopted sustainable behaviors) and real-world results (what actually happens when interventions aimed only at individuals are attempted without changing the broader system). While sustainable behavior shifts could theoretically cancel out all the GHG emissions an average person produces each year, individual-level interventions typically achieve only 10% of this potential — highlighting the need for both individual and systemic change. In addition, the authors identify which behavior change tools (like defaults, social norms or providing information) are the most effective.
Hindu Kush Himalaya Snow Update 2025, S. Muhammad, The International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development
The update 2025 highlights a significant decline in seasonal snow across the Hindu Kush Himalaya region, with snow persistence 23.6% below normal — the lowest in 23 years. This trend, now in its third consecutive year, threatens water security for nearly two billion people. All twelve major river basins, including the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra, experienced below-average snow cover, with the Mekong and Salween basins losing over 50%. The author warns of potential lower river flows, increased groundwater reliance, and heightened drought risk, urging improved water management, stronger drought preparedness, better early warning systems, and regional cooperation. Long-term resilience requires science-led policies and investments in water storage and efficient meltwater use
Record-High 48% Call Global Warming a Serious Threat, Gallup
A record-high 48% of U.S. adults anticipate that global warming will, at some point, pose a serious threat to themselves or their way of life, up from 44% saying this a year ago. The current reading is two percentage points above the prior high in 2023, following a long-term increase from 25% in 1997. The latest results are from Gallup’s March 3-16 Environment survey, conducted about a month after wildfires ravaged parts of southern California in January. This year’s installment of the annual survey also comes after numerous extreme weather events occurred around the country last summer and fall, including major flooding in North Carolina in September stemming from Hurricane Helene. Thirty-seven percent of Americans in March said they have personally been affected by an extreme weather event in the past two years.
Unsustainable Investment: International Finance Corporation’s Failures to Address GHG Emissions in Industrial Livestock Operations, Kelly McNamara and Divya Narain, Stop Financing Factory Farming
The International Finance Corporation (IFC), the World Bank’s private sector arm, has poured billions into polluting animal agriculture projects while falling short of upholding its own climate standards. Between 2020 and 2025, the IFC approved 38 loans worth roughly $2 billion to industrial meat, dairy, and animal feed corporations—without ensuring those clients met the IFC’s own climate requirements. Despite its pledge to align all financing with the Paris Agreement goals by July 2025, IFC has funded agribusinesses that show little to no evidence of mitigating climate risk or reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This undermines the World Bank Group’s climate credibility and sends the wrong signals to global markets about what is considered sustainable.
Scottish Climate Survey 2024: main findings, Scotish Government
The Scottish Climate Survey is a nationally representative survey of Scottish adults’ awareness, understanding and experiences of climate change-related issues. Over six in ten (62%) respondents said they knew a great deal or a fair amount about climate change; almost three quarters (72%) felt climate change is an immediate and urgent problem, while 13% felt it is more of a problem for the future; around two in five (39%) said they had spoken to others about climate change at least once a week in the last month; the most trusted source of information or advice about climate change was universities, research organizations or scientists (74%), followed by the Scottish Government (39%), major national charities or third sector organizations (32%), and the UK Government (31%); and when asked how thinking about climate change made them feel, respondents most commonly said they felt ‘worried’ (46%), ‘powerless’ (35%) or ‘sad’ (26%).
People and Climate Change. Public attitudes to the Climate Crisis and the transition to Net Zero, Ipsos
The authors explore perceptions of the risks facing people from the climate crisis as well as where is the responsibility for greater action. People recognize that the last decade has been the hottest on record and they believe it is important to keep temperatures under the 1.5?C target. However, people are becoming less action focused and more disengaged. Long-term trends show fewer feel individual action is needed. People are divided on whether their country should do more. Concern about the impact of climate change is rising. People recognize 1.5?C temperature rise is a big deal.
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