Skeptical Science New Research for Week #18 2025
Posted on 1 May 2025 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Monitoring Scientific Integrity in the US: Silencing Science Tracker
Ordinarily we employ the term “scientific integrity” in connection with staying true to ethical aspects of the philosophy of science. Today however in the US there is an external threat to scientific integrity. The structural integrity of the US scientific enterprise being actively attacked and degraded by forces uninterested in our better understanding of our world and thus how we can better thrive.
The scope and speed of the destruction levied on US science practice challenges our comprehension; it’s hard or impossible for us as members of the general public to see the scale of wreckage now unfolding in the US.
This issue of New Research features articles that entered the publication pipeline before the advent of the current US executive administration. Abstracts don’t tell us that we are likely reading “last words” from voices we’ll not hear from again. Akin to victims of a shipwreck left in icy water, there are authors in this week’s edition who are slipping from view forever, their capacities to improve our lives forever ended.
The scientific community is not naturally equipped to communicate this threat to us all. But given that we’re all harmed by rampant administrative violence being inflcted on the scientific world, it’s important that we know why and how we’re intentionally being made more ignorant, that we have a fuller picture informing whatever personal decisions and replies we may make in the face of current events (ideally, voting with a factually accurate informational foundation leading to wise choices).
Forfunately there are people with practiced skills and estabilished resources for helping us comprehend the amount of damage being done to science, and who is responsible for that. Columbia University’s Sabin Center for Climate Change Law and the Climate Science Legal Defense Fund have long maintained a resource for just this purpose, the Silencing Science Tracker. While both sponsoring organizations are climate-focused, the Silencing Science Tracker has always been comprehensive across scientific disciplines and affords us a complete picture of the breadth and depth of the assault we’re witnessing.
At all levels, ignorance is not strength. Ignorance is additive. Ignorance of what’s happening to US science will compound as much larger ignorance, our being blindsided by various harms and unable to to help ourselves as we face bad weather, bad seismicity, bad pathogens. The Siliencing Science Tracker reduces ignorance and is a useful operational instrument for monitoring our communal intellectual health.
Open access notables
Public opposition to coal-fired power in emerging economies, Alkon et al., Energy Policy:
Constructing new coal fired power plants presents significant climate, ecological, health, and economic risks. This presents sometimes acute tradeoffs for leaders in emerging economies, where rapid economic and population growth are driving large increases in electricity generation demand. Against this backdrop, combining a novel conjoint experiment with qualitative interviews, we find widespread public opposition to coal-fired power. We also find that this opposition is politically consequential, diminishing support for politicians who support coal-fired power and increasing expressed propensity to engage in social protest. These findings inform our understanding of the social reception of coal infrastructure, as well as the political implications of energy development in key emerging economies.
This work was supported by the National Science Foundation, United States (award #1949486)
State-level climate obstruction and discourses of climate delay: insights from Arizona, Eskridge-Aldama, Frontiers in Climate:
This study applies the discourses of climate delay (DCD) framework developed by Lamb et al. (2020) to analyze Arizona legislative discourse surrounding House Bill 2686 (2020) and House Bill 2101 (2022), both of which had significant implications for state-level climate governance. Using qualitative discourse analysis of public hearing transcripts, I identify rhetorical strategies that obstruct climate action, particularly those used by utility representatives and their allies. The analysis reveals that delay tactics most often emphasized the negative consequences of climate action and promoted non-transformative solutions, especially those aligned with fossil fuel interests. In contrast, “redirect responsibility” and “surrender” strategies were used less frequently, and “whataboutism” was notably absent. This absence suggests that, in Arizona, obstruction is less about shifting blame and more about affirming local identity and resisting perceived external influence. Based on these findings, I propose an expansion of the DCD framework to include a new subcategory—“pride, identity, and culture”—to capture how regional cultural values influence climate discourse. This study contributes to climate policy scholarship by demonstrating how localized rhetorical strategies sustain climate inaction and by offering a refined framework for future research on discursive climate obstruction.
How tidal properties influence the future duration of coastal flooding, Talke, npj Natural Hazards:
This paper uses a combined theoretical/empirical approach to show that 4 primary factors impact inundation times during high-tide flooding: the amplitude, period, and relative phases of semidiurnal and diurnal tide forcing, and the maximum water-level above a datum. Some regions—such as the US Gulf Coast—have tidal properties that lead to long high-water stands ( > 20 hours). For the same inundation depth of 0.2 m, regions with large semidiurnal tides are inundated for only 1-2 hours. Within individual estuaries, the potential duration can vary by a factor of more than two. Combined with relative sea-level rise rates that vary from less than 0 mm/yr to 10 mm/yr around North America, the observed timescale to transition from a zero to two-hour tidal flood length varies from 1-87 years. This large spatial variability in tidal inundation properties has implications for hazard planning, ecological adaptation and the future evolution of coastal flood events.
This work was supported by National Science Foundation grant 2013280, the California Delta Stewardship Council, CONTRACT # DSC- 21024, and the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program, contract W912HQ24C0020.
Coastal adaptation and damage costs at different global warming thresholds, Wong et al., npj Natural Hazards:
Climate change is worsening coastal hazards, elevating the need to mitigate and adapt to future warming and sea-level change. A key question is how future warming relates to coastal impacts in terms of adaptation costs and economic damages, and the potentially unequal distribution of these impacts globally. We use an integrated modeling framework to generate estimates of future coastal adaptation costs and damages, discounted through the year 2150, at multiple global warming thresholds. As warming crosses the 1.5 °C threshold, we find that high-end (95th percentile) coastal damages nearly double, from 1.3 T to 2.3 T US$. Beyond 2.5 °C warming, low-end (5th percentile) damages increase from 1.2 T to 1.6 T US$ and the Global South faces disproportionately high damages as a percentage of regional GDP. Given the plausibility of 2.5 °C warming in even SSP2-4.5, these results highlight the importance of emissions reductions to avoid sizable and inequitable increases in coastal impacts.
This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Award No. DMS-2213432. V.S. and C.D. were supported by the MultiSector Dynamics program area of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research as part of the multi-program, collaborative Integrated Coastal Modeling (ICoM) project.
Low-Altitude High-Latitude Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Is Feasible With Existing Aircraft, Duffey et al., Earth’s Future:
Here, we simulate an ensemble of 41 short stratospheric aerosol injection simulations in the UK Earth System Model in which we vary the altitude, latitude, and season of SO2 injection. For each simulation, we diagnose aerosol optical depth and radiative forcing and estimate the global cooling under a sustained deployment. For altitudes up to around 14 km, high-latitude injection maximizes global forcing efficiency. Aerosol lifetime variation is the largest contributor to changes in efficiency with injection location. Seasonal SAI deployment with low-altitude (13 km) and high-latitude (60°N/S) injection achieves 35% of the forcing efficiency of a high-altitude (20 km), annually constant, sub-tropical (30°N/S) strategy. Low-altitude high-latitude SAI would have strongly reduced efficiency and therefore increased side-effects for a given global cooling. It would also produce a more polar cooling distribution, with reduced efficacy in the tropics. However, it would face lower technical barriers because existing large jets could be used for deployment. This could imply an increase in the number of actors able to deploy SAI, an earlier potential start date, and perhaps a greater risk of unilateral deployment.
Beyond ‘Not in my electoral Year’: Why do some elected officials oppose renewable energy projects?, Delcayre & Bourdin, Global Environmental Change:
This study aimed to examine the reasons behind the wait-and-see and resistant attitudes of local elected officials regarding energy transition projects. Although there is consensus on the importance of renewable energy in combating climate change, its implementation at the local level often encounters opposition from several actors, including elected officials. This study identified the internal, external, and personal factors that influence this opposition by conducting semi-structured interviews with the French officials and stakeholders involved in the energy transition and by analysing the local and regional press. Our findings indicate that political strategies, regulatory complexities, and personal beliefs play significant roles in shaping officials’ decisions regarding energy transition projects. Furthermore, by proposing a typology of elected officials according to their modes of opposition, we offer insights to promote effective and sustainable local energy transitions.
From this week’s government/NGO section:
Sigma. Natural catastrophes: insured losses on trend to USD 145 billion in 2025, Banerjee et al,, Swiss Re Management Ltd
Last year’s insured losses from natural catastrophes were on trend at USD 137 billion. Following the long-term trend of 5 ? 7% annual increase in real terms, insured losses from natural catastrophes will approach USD 145 billion in 2025. This year started with wildfires sweeping across the Los Angeles area in January. The currently estimated USD 40 billion of resultant insured losses is a record high, but the fires on their own will not be cause of notable deviation from the annual loss growth trend. The scale of losses elicited a reinsurance response, with two thirds of the claims payouts coming from primary insurers, and the rest from reinsurers.
Managing the UK Economy in times of the Climate Emergency, Emma Dawnay, Green House Think Tank
To have the best chance of successfully transitioning to an economy which is not dependent on fossil fuels, the economic system which drives human activity must be reorganized. The ‘needs’ of financial markets must become subordinate to the ‘needs’ of physics to maintain planetary conditions compatible with human civilization. The mainstream consensus on how a national economy should be managed has little theoretical underpinning; rather, it has evolved with the massive growth in financial markets. The shortcomings of the mainstream consensus have been highlighted by non-orthodox economists for decades, but now more than ever this consensus needs to be reassessed as it is limiting our response to the climate emergency as well as causing unnecessary austerity and hardship. This briefing aims to explain descriptively how a national economy works, how the current consensus is limiting what we can achieve, and how the UK economy could be managed differently.
165 articles in 62 journals by 839 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Beaufort Gyre Liquid Freshwater Content Change Under Greenhouse Warming From an Eddy-Resolving Climate Simulation, Shan et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl113847
Disentangling anthropogenic and dynamic contributions to recent ocean warming, Lee et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access 10.1038/s41612-025-01043-7
Energy Gain Kernel for Climate Feedbacks. Part III: Reconciliation of the Apparent “Negative” Nature of Lapse-Rate Feedback, Sun et al., Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences 10.1175/jas-d-24-0168.1
Enhanced Climate Mitigation Feedbacks by Wetland Vegetation in Semi-Arid Compared to Humid Regions, Liu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl115242
Enhanced heating effect of lakes under global warming, Qiu et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-59291-3
Quantifying the global climate feedback from energy-based adaptation, Abajian et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-59201-7
Seasonal Delay of Tropical Rainfall Enhanced by the Interhemispheric Contrast of SST Warming, Geng et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl115403
Shifting Patterns in the Weather Regimes That Drive Regional Drought: Demonstration for South Africa, Mandavya et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.8866
Super-Clausius–Clapeyron scaling of extreme precipitation explained by shift from stratiform to convective rain type, Da Silva & Haerter, Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-025-01686-4
The Double Dip: How Tropospheric Expansion Counteracts Increases in Extratropical Stratospheric Ozone Under Global Warming, Match & Gerber, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl112409
Unifying Future Ocean Oxygen Projections Using an Oxygen Water Mass Framework, Ditkovsky & Resplandy Resplandy, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2025jc022333
Observations of climate change, effects
A dynamical geography of observed trends in the global ocean, Nardelli & Iudicone, Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adq3532
Air Temperature Trends and Extreme Warming Events Across Regions of Antarctica for the Period 2003–2021, Nielsen et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2024jd043042
Detection and attribution of climate change impacts in coupled natural-human systems in the Andes, Ochoa-Sánchez et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02092-9
ERA5 Reproduces Key Features of Global Precipitation Trends in A Warming Climate, Obarein & Lee, International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.8877
Forest Dieback in Drinking Water Protection Areas—A Hidden Threat to Water Quality, Winter et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006078
Global prevalence of compound heatwaves in recent decades, Zhang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.010
The intensification of soil extreme heat further accelerates the rise of atmospheric extreme temperature over China, Yan et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.016
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
Applying historical records to extend the tropical cyclone climatology in southwestern Australia, 1830–2023, Aldridge & Christensen, Global and Planetary Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104830
Can We Rely on Satellite Visible/Infrared Microphysical Retrievals of Boundary Layer Clouds in Partially Cloudy Scenes? Implications for Climate Research, Painemal et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl113825
Future Satellite-Based Cloud Climate Records: Intercomparison and Consistency between GAC and VGAC, Seo et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-24-0132.1
The role of edge states for early warning of tipping points, Lohmann et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rspa.2024.0753
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Effects of human activities and low-frequency climate variability on East Asian temperature changes at century scale, LU & SUN, Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.002
Increasing Fire Weather Season Overlap Between North America and Australia Challenges Firefighting Cooperation, Richardson et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005030
Intensified Tropical Cyclones in Global Climate Simulations Employing a High-Wind Drag Relation over Sea Surface, Wei et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0277.1
Present and future interannual variability in wildfire occurrence: a large ensemble application to the United States, Keeping et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2025.1519836
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
A Machine Learning Approach to Rapidly Downscale Sea Surface Temperature Extremes and Heat Stress on the Great Barrier Reef, Cyriac et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl114521
An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024
Are the Largest Benefits of Kilometer-Scale Climate Models Over Mountains or Over Flatland?, Ignatieff, The Mathematical World of Walter Noll Open Access 10.1007/978-3-642-79833-7_2
Constraints on the Projected Tropical SST Response to Greenhouse Warming by the Observed Antarctic Sea Ice Concentration, Geng et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl114656
How climate models reproduce the observed increase in extreme precipitation over Europe, Steensen et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000442
Integrating Top-Down Energetic Constraints With Bottom-Up Process-Based Constraints for More Accurate Projections of Future Warming, Watson?Parris, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl114269
The Cold Biases in the Soil and Surface Air Temperature Simulations of RegCM4.7 Model Over the Tibetan Plateau in Cold Seasons Reduced by Adopting an Improved Snow Cover Fraction Scheme, Luo et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd043507
Cryosphere & climate change
A Model Analysis of Circumpolar Deep Water Intrusions on the Continental Shelf Break in Amundsen Sea, Antarctica, Li et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2024jc022210
Change in iceberg calving behavior preceded North Sea ice shelf disintegration during the last deglaciation, Kirkham et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-58304-5
Changes in Antarctic surface conditions and potential for ice shelf hydrofracturing from 1850 to 2200, Jourdain et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2024-58
Half a century of dynamic instability following the ocean-driven break-up of Wordie Ice Shelf, Dømgaard et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-59293-1
Mass balance of lake terminating Gepang Gath glacier (western Himalaya, India) and the role of glacier–lake interactions, PRATAP et al., Journal of Glaciology Open Access 10.1017/jog.2025.31
Proglacial Lake Drainage Events Drive Fast Grounding Line Advance in a Warming Climate, Hu & Haseloff, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl115184
Regime Shift in Arctic Ocean Sea-Ice Extent, Stern, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl114546
Revisiting the Interaction Between Antarctic Sea Ice and Southern Ocean Cyclones, Zhong et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2024jd042914
The role of atmospheric and oceanic factors on the record low Antarctic sea ice extent of 2023, Swathi et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104858
Unraveling Arctic Sea Ice Response to Atmospheric Rivers—Insights From Sea Ice Modeling, Zhang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl115152
Sea level & climate change
How tidal properties influence the future duration of coastal flooding, Talke, npj Natural Hazards Open Access 10.1038/s44304-025-00086-3
Uncertainties in the Projection of Sterodynamic Sea Level in CMIP6 Models, Jin et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl113691
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
A Holocene fjord record from Greenland reveals exceptional Atlantic water influence during minimum ice-sheet extent, Kvorning et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02282-5
An assessment of the Pliocene as an analogue for our warmer future, Burton et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104860
Arctic fjord ecosystem adaptation to cryosphere meltdown over the past 14,000 years, Knies et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02251-y
Exploring Water System Vulnerabilities in California’s Central Valley Under the Late Renaissance Megadrought and Climate Change, Gupta et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005465
Shallow-Marine, Benthic Ecosystems Show Compositional Shifts in Response to the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) on the Adriatic Carbonate Platform, Weiss et al., Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology Open Access 10.1029/2024pa005039
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
Climate-driven succession in marine microbiome biodiversity and biogeochemical function, Larkin et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-59382-1
Demand-Resource Mismatch Explains Body Shrinkage in a Migratory Shorebird, Oortwijn et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70170
Emerging evidence for delaying effect of winter warming on green-up onset in alpine grasslands on the Tibetan Plateau, Wu et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110586
Future Habitat Shifts and Economic Implications for Ophiocordyceps sinensis Under Climate Change, Chen et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.71327
Future of Food Webs: The Role of Biotic Interactions in Predicting the Impact of Climate and Land Use Change, Endrédi, Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70202
Heat Nests: The Impact of Climate Change on Loggerhead Turtle (Caretta caretta) Nesting Distribution in Sicily (Italy), Siddiolo et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.71177
Impacts of Climate-Land Dynamics on Global Population and Sub-Populations of a Desert Equid, Rezvani et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70190
Microbial ecology in hypersaline coastal lagoons: A model for climate-induced coastal salinisation and eutrophication, Keneally et al., Earth Open Access 10.1016/j.earscirev.2025.105150
Sea-Ice Retreat From the Northeast Greenland Continental Shelf Triggers a Marine Trophic Cascade, Laverick et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70189
Surface and Subsurface Compound Marine Heatwave and Biogeochemical Extremes Under Climate Change, Le Grix et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access 10.1029/2025gb008514
Temperature and stopover duration carry-over to affect Arctic arrival timing and breeding success in the cackling goose (Branta hutchinsii), Bani Assadi et al., Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.3389/fevo.2025.1497949
Terrestrial inputs of nutrients and dissolved organic carbon to the Arctic Ocean and their influence on primary production, Mathew et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107182
The Forest After Tomorrow: Projecting the Impact of a Collapsing Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation on European Tree-Species Distributions, Heubel et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70185
The scaled sardine’s unique metabolic phenotype and its implications for the susceptibility of small tropical pelagic fishes to climate change, Gamperl et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-025-98638-0
Turning the Tide: A 2°C Increase in Heat Tolerance Can Halve Climate Change-Induced Losses in Four Cold-Adapted Kelp Species, Hill et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.71271
Vegetation resistance to compound drought and heatwave events buffers the spatial shift velocities of vegetation vulnerability, Yan et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02298-x
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
A Robust Method for Calculating Carbon Dioxide Emissions From Cities and Power Stations Using OCO-2 and S5P/TROPOMI Observations, Hakkarainen et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2025jd043358
AGB carbon stock analysis in the Indigenous agroforestry of the Ecuadorian Amazon: Chakra and Aja as Natural Climate Solutions, Álava-Núñez et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2025.1513140
Assessment of soil erosion rates, carbon stocks, and erosion-induced carbon loss in dominant forest types of the Himalayan region using fallout-137Cs, David Raj et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-025-94953-8
Climate Variability Modulates the Temporal Stability of Carbon Sequestration by Changing Multiple Facets of Biodiversity in Temperate Forests Across Scales, Chen et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70212
Climate-induced shifts in sulfate dynamics regulate anaerobic methane oxidation in a coastal wetland, Lee et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.ads6093
Daily Global Methane Super-Emitter Detection and Source Identification With Sub-Daily Tracking, de Jong et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl111824
Elevational changes in vegetation and soil geochemistry drive thresholds in bulk soil carbon and its key fractions, Wu et al., Journal of Ecology 10.1111/1365-2745.70055
Evaluation of long-term carbon dynamics in a drained forested peatland using the ForSAFE-Peat model, Escobar et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-22-2023-2025
Global long-term hourly 9 km terrestrial water-energy-carbon fluxes (FluxHourly), Han et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2025-183
Global Soil Methane Uptake Estimated by Scaling Up Local Measurements, Jiang et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70194
Impacts of Anthropogenic Emission Change Scenarios on U.S. Water and Carbon Balances at National and State Scales in a Changing Climate, Zhang et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef004853
Rapid changes in terrestrial carbon dioxide uptake captured in near-real time from a geostationary satellite: The ALIVE framework, Losos et al., Remote Sensing of Environment Open Access 10.1016/j.rse.2025.114759
Rising Arctic seas and thawing permafrost: uncovering the carbon cycle impact in a thermokarst lagoon system in the outer Mackenzie Delta, Canada, Jenrich et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-22-2069-2025
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
Allochthonous Organic Carbon Stored in Blue Carbon Ecosystems Can Be Additional and Provide Genuine Climate Mitigation, Houston et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70182
Blue carbon ecosystems for hypoxia solution: how to maximize their carbon sequestration potential, Lee & Lee, Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107202
Carbon capture and storage via enhanced carbonate weathering coupled with aquatic photosynthesis: Potential, cost, and advantages, Shi et al., Earth 10.1016/j.earscirev.2025.105149
Domesticating technology: Sociotechnical imaginaries of carbon capture and storage in Denmark, Hougaard & Christiansen, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104087
Geochemical Assessment for Carbon Sequestration in the Conasauga Group, Northwest Georgia, USA, Rivera & Beckingham, Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology 10.1002/ghg.2344
Machine learning provides reconnaissance-type estimates of carbon dioxide storage resources in oil and gas reservoirs, Attanasi et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1562087
Scaling and heating will drive low-temperature CO2 electrolysers to operate at higher temperatures, Pelzer et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-025-01745-5
Synergies of storing hydrogen at the crest of CO2${rm CO}&{2}$ or other gas storage, Rhouma et al., Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology Open Access pdf 10.1002/ghg.2278
Temperate forests can deliver future wood demand and climate-change mitigation dependent on afforestation and circularity, Forster et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-58463-5
Decarbonization
Incentivizing photovoltaic panel cleaning in green building standards: A policy framework, Younis et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101738
Mechanistic insights into the influences of photovoltaic panel construction on algal crust microbial communities in alpine desert grasslands, Qi et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1552071
Public opposition to coal-fired power in emerging economies, Alkon et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114595
Transatlantic Coastal Community Voices on Floating Offshore Wind Farms With Artificial Reefs, Dubois et al., Wind Energy Open Access 10.1002/we.70021
Geoengineering climate
Community perspectives on marine carbon dioxide removal and ocean alkalinity enhancement: A future scenario approach, Nawaz & Belotti, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104080
Effects of solar radiation modification on precipitation extremes in Southeast Asia: Insights from the GeoMIP G6 experiments, FENG et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.009
Influence of Wave Action on Applications of Olivine-Based Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement on Sandy Beaches, England & Bach, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl114922
Low-Altitude High-Latitude Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Is Feasible With Existing Aircraft, Duffey et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005567
Reduced Winter-Time Clear Air Turbulence in the Trans-Atlantic Region Under Stratospheric Aerosol Injection, Barnes et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl113627
Black carbon
Radiative effects of black carbon in the Arctic due to recent extreme summer fires, CHEN et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.003
Climate change communications & cognition
Climate Change Reporting and Green Energy Misdirection: U.S. Media Coverage of the 2021 Texas Blackouts during Winter Storm Uri, Hopke, Weather, Climate, and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-24-0080.1
Microplastics in food and drink: Predictors of public risk perceptions and support for plastic-reducing policies based on a climate change framework, Fian et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102583
Opinion poles: Polarised views on energy developments in Canada’s oil province, Rollins et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104069
Psychological impacts of climate change on US youth, Vercammen et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2311400122
State-level climate obstruction and discourses of climate delay: insights from Arizona, Eskridge-Aldama, Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1566033
Sustainable educational leadership and the climate crisis: knowledge, power, and positive futures, Kalyani, Environmental Politics Open Access 10.1080/09644016.2025.2497218
Trust in Climate Scientists is Associated with Political Ideology: A 26-Country Analysis, Remsö et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102609
What kinds of speeches motivate climate action?, Reinhardt & Whitehouse Harvey Whitehouse, Royal Society Open Science Open Access 10.1098/rsos.241563
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Advancing the Modeling of Future Climate and Innovation Impacts on Perennial Crops to Support Adaptation: A Case Study of California Almonds, Wu et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005033
Comparing aboveground carbon stocks in coffee agroforestry and secondary and primary forests in Gayo Highlands, Indonesia, Anhar et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2025.1541302
Finnish forest-related laws need to acknowledge climate change risks and integrate adaptive strategies to enhance resiliency, Khanam et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02284-3
Global Rice Paddy Inventory (GRPI): A High-Resolution Inventory of Methane Emissions From Rice Agriculture Based on Landsat Satellite Inundation Data, Chen et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005479
Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024
Spring Rapid Temperature Variability in Southern China: Characteristics, Decadal Trend and Associated Climate Impacts on Crop Yield, Yang et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8880
The effectiveness of agricultural carbon dioxide removal using the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model, Evans & Matthews Matthews, Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-22-1969-2025
The integration of peatlands into the EU Common Agricultural Policy: Recent progress and remaining challenges, Nordbeck et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104077
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Fast Warming Over the Mongolian Plateau a Catalyst for Extreme Rainfall Over North China, Gu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl113737
Hydropower system in the Yarlung-Tsangpo Grand Canyon can mitigate flood disasters caused by climate change, Zhang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02247-8
Record-High Precipitation Over Eastern Europe Induced by Tropical-Subtropical North Atlantic Warming in Late Fall 2023, Hou et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl114309
Weakening trends of glacier and snowmelt-induced floods in the Upper Yarkant River Basin, Karakoram during 1961?2022, YI et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.008
Climate change economics
Coastal adaptation and damage costs at different global warming thresholds, Wong et al., npj Natural Hazards Open Access 10.1038/s44304-025-00089-0
Estimating the economy-wide and redistributive impacts of mitigation in South Africa, Hartley et al., Climate and Development Open Access 10.1080/17565529.2025.2491539
Green transition for Turkey: Growth, employment, and trade deficit effects, Gözkün & Orhangazi , Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114577
The impact of FDI- and import-related technology spillovers from government-funded green energy R&D in developed countries on CO2 emissions in developing countries, Herzer, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114635
Targeted finance and the adoption of solar irrigation by smallholder and women farmers, Bhattarai et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114569
Transitioning to net Zero: Assessing the impacts on asset impairment, write-downs and the going concern of oil and gas companies operating in the UK, Abdo et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103004
Climate change mitigation public policy research
Assessing production-based and consumption-based greenhouse gas emissions in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: insights for mitigation and policy, Almutairi, Open Access 10.2139/ssrn.5125025
Beyond ‘Not in my electoral Year’: Why do some elected officials oppose renewable energy projects?, Delcayre & Bourdin, Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.102998
Climate policy uncertainty, environmental regulation, and corporate green innovation, Yi et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1570848
Climate transparency’s unmet promises: A necessary stocktaking, Gupta et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000613
Close ties: How trade dynamics and environmental regulations shape international dependence on oil, Cappelli & Carnazza , Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114578
Conceptualizing transformative climate action: insights from sufficiency research, Richard et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2025.2494782
Differences in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions estimates explained, Lamb et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2025-188
Dual dependence on low-carbon transition of small and medium enterprises in Taiwan: the policy perspective, Wang & Lin, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2025.2496326
Navigating conflicts between niche and regime intermediaries in the energy transition, Laur & Kanda, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104070
Quantifying the trade-offs between renewable energy visibility and system costs, Tsani et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-59029-1
The impact of best practice on energy efficiency in industrial decarbonization policy, Ali & Evans Evans, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114632
The policy impact of climate change advisory bodies: government responses to the UK Climate Change Committee’s recommendations, 2009–2020, Dudley et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2025.2497881
The process matters: Exploring public participation in solar energy projects in Brazil and Portugal, Rielli & Campos, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104078
Unlocking motivation for energy saving: A study of German electricity consumer segments, Webb et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104082
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Assessment of flood loss in administrative units based on improved vulnerability curves, Yan et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.12.008
Deep learning approaches for time series prediction in climate resilience applications, Chen & Dong , Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1574981
Identifying transformative decisions: A dual approach to adaptation pathways design using forward-exploration and backcasting, van der Beek et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100716
Preparedness for climate change in rural areas—case study in three southern Finnish villages, Ruponen et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1548983
Putting migration in context: a review of how theory and methods shape climate-induced migration research findings, Turner et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1549686
Quantifying the impact of infrastructure-based urban adaptation strategies on summer air temperature and heat exposure risk in Chinese cities, Shang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.03.005
Socioeconomic Resilience of Local Communities in the Face of Climate Change-Induced Hazards: The Role of Social Capital, Gatiso & Greenhalgh, Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access 10.1002/cli2.70012
The Changes in Heating and Cooling Energy Demand in Beijing and Shanghai under Global Warming, Xu et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-24-0039.1
Transdisciplinarity in climate change adaptation: An agenda for evidence generation, Olazabal et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000612
Climate change impacts on human health
Anthropocene mortality cycle convergence: Global pathogen spread eclipses climate, Walkowiak et al., The Anthropocene Review 10.1177/20530196251334760
Everyone’s Adaptation: Exploring individual heat stress adaptation, Sultana et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100712
Relationship between LCZ and physical activity in residential areas: A mediating role of perceptions of heat risks in climate change, Dong et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102425
Unprecedented September Heatwave in the Yangtze River Basin in 2024 and the Great Exposure Risk to School Students, Tiejun et al., Atmospheric Science Letters Open Access 10.1002/asl.1300
Climate change & geopolitics
A critical defence of the crime of ecocide, Killean & Short, Environmental Politics Open Access 10.1080/09644016.2025.2492441
Climate change impacts on human culture
Exploration of Racial Dynamics and Climate Change Experience: Insights from Underrepresented Communities in Interior Alaska, Curry et al., Weather, Climate, and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-24-0087.1
Other
Recent Changes in Hemispheric Asymmetry of Stratospheric Water Vapor, Xu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2024jd043022
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Ambiguity of early warning signals for climate tipping points, Rietkerk et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02328-8
Convergence and consensus, Garnier et al., Science Open Access 10.1126/science.ady3
Editorial – toward Carbon Neutral Systems, Wang et al., Carbon Neutral Systems Open Access 10.1007/s44438-025-00007-x
NSF kills grants to comply with war on woke, Mervis, Science 10.1126/science.ady4512
Polar regions are critical in achieving global sustainable development goals, Li et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-59178-3
Book reviews
Building capabilities for Earth system governance, Prantl et al., Open Access pdf 10.1017/9781108854030
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
Climate Adaptation Research and Innovation Framework, Climate Adaptation Research and Innovation Board, Government of the United Kingdom
The framework outlines the research and innovation (R&I) needed to support adaptation plans across UK governments and sectors. It identifies the main climate adaptation research and innovation challenges that can help us address climate risks and opportunities identified in the third UK Climate Change Risk Assessment. The framework supports an evidence-based program of public sector research and innovation and provides information for businesses and academics working on climate adaptation related research.
Earth Day Survey, Morning Consult and the Physicians Committee for Responsible Medicine
The poll was conducted on March 24th – March 26th, 2025, among 2,203 US Adults among the general population. Americans are generally unaware that food contributes to greenhouse gas emissions, much less what foods are responsible for driving emissions. Most Americans correctly rank beef to be the top emitter in a set of beef, cheese, vegetables, tofu, and nuts. Still, many adults ranked vegetables as the top emitter in the set, above both beef and cheese; showcasing a need for public education on agriculture emissions. Adults appear to be generally aware of this gap in knowledge in that most agree that federal food policy should discuss the impact of food choices on climate change, and the government should offer incentives to animal agriculture farmers to transition to growing crops and orchards instead. Nearly half of adults would consider eating a plant-based diet to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, suggesting that framing plant-based diets as an actionable part of the solution to climate change could aid in broader adoption of such diets. However, taxation on meat and dairy industries for their greenhouse gas emissions is slightly more divisive, as many adults may interpret this as potentially increasing the price of the foods they purchase from these industries.
Artificial Intelligence: Generative AI’s Environmental and Human Effects, Fletcher et al,, Government Accountability Office
Generative artificial intelligence (AI) could revolutionize entire industries. In the nearer term, it may dramatically increase productivity and transform daily tasks in many sectors. However, both its benefits and risks, including its environmental and human effects, are unknown or unclear. Generative AI uses significant energy and water resources, but companies are generally not reporting details of these uses. Most estimates of environmental effects of generative AI technologies have focused on quantifying the energy consumed, and carbon emissions associated with generating that energy, required to train the generative AI model. Estimates of water consumption by generative AI are limited. Generative AI is expected to be a driving force for data center demand, but what portion of data center electricity consumption is related to generative AI is unclear. According to the International Energy Agency, U.S. data center electricity consumption was approximately 4 percent.
Seattle Waterfront Clean Energy Strategy, The Port of Seattle, Northwest Seaport Alliance and Seattle City Light
The purpose of the strategy is to proactively develop the enabling clean energy infrastructure required to electrify vehicles, vessels, rail, equipment, buildings and other end uses at Port and related facilities. The strategy takes a holistic approach to forecast future electrification demand from major maritime uses along the Seattle waterfront, assess power infrastructure constraints, identify capital investments, recommend strategic actions, and establish a framework for ongoing implementation between the Port and Seattle City Light, the local electric utility. The strategy is a roadmap for the decarbonization of a significant segment of port-related maritime operations and identifies 33 capital projects and eight strategic actions for implementation. It is important to note, however, that there remains significant uncertainty in key aspects underlying this strategy and the broader energy transition in which this work is situated.
Smaller nuclear reactors (SMRs) are a costly dead end, especially for AI: Trump’s tariffs and other policies make them even more of a losing bet, Joseph Romm, University of Pennsylvania Center for Science, Sustainability, and the Media
Small modular reactors (SMRs) are a dead end—with high risks of cost overruns, delays, and reliability/safety problems. That is why efforts to commercialize them have failed for decades. Worse, Trump’s policies “severely increase the risk of expensive, unexpected nuclear accidents,” Scientific American warned in March. SMRs also have tariff risks since they need foreign sales, foreign uranium, and foreign components to succeed. For decades, reactors have kept getting larger to capture economies of scale. So, SMRs face significant shrinkage diseconomies and a higher cost per MW than large reactors like those at Vogtle in Georgia. Cost escalation is endemic to SMRs. So, SMRs would mean even higher rates for consumers than big reactors. In 2025, solar, wind, and batteries represent 93% of planned U.S. utility-scale electric-generating capacity additions. Also, recent studies find advanced geothermal energy is on track to provide baseload and potentially dispatchable power three times cheaper to build than Vogtle by 2030.
Managing the UK Economy in times of the Climate Emergency, Emma Dawnay, Green House Think Tank
To have the best chance of successfully transitioning to an economy which is not dependent on fossil fuels, the economic system which drives human activity must be reorganized. The ‘needs’ of financial markets must become subordinate to the ‘needs’ of physics to maintain planetary conditions compatible with human civilization. The mainstream consensus on how a national economy should be managed has little theoretical underpinning; rather, it has evolved with the massive growth in financial markets. The shortcomings of the mainstream consensus have been highlighted by non-orthodox economists for decades, but now more than ever this consensus needs to be reassessed as it is limiting our response to the climate emergency as well as causing unnecessary austerity and hardship. This briefing aims to explain descriptively how a national economy works, how the current consensus is limiting what we can achieve, and how the UK economy could be managed differently.
Protecting and modernizing America’s water infrastructure, Eli Cain and Giana Amador, Carbon Removal Alliance
Today, carbon removal companies in the United States are partnering with other industries to generate technological improvements, cost savings, new revenue streams, and environmental benefits. As the carbon removal field grows, so too does its potential to reinforce critical American industries and safeguard essential infrastructure. These partnerships represent powerful economic engines for local communities across the country. With more than 16,000 municipal facilities and thousands of industrial treatment plants in the United States, the wastewater treatment industry concentrates and generates hundreds of millions of tons of carbon dioxide each year. Through effective federal policy, partnerships can become a key source of demand for durable carbon removal. These policies will have the dual impact of promoting carbon removal and bolstering essential American water infrastructure.
Securing American leadership on critical minerals, Cain et al,, Carbon Removal Alliance
By focusing on carbon removal alongside the extraction and processing of key minerals, the U.S. can position itself as a leader in both resource development and mining innovation. This approach would reduce reliance on foreign supply chains, improve energy security, and promote a more efficient and profitable industrial base. Across the globe, the mining industry has begun partnering with and investing in carbon removal companies. These partnerships reflect the growing understanding that carbon removal can be effectively integrated into new, existing, and legacy mine sites — creating opportunities for new revenue streams and operational efficiencies.
What does the global arms race mean for climate action?, The Transnational Institute
It might be tempting to call climate change a ‘security threat’ as a way of highlighting its political importance. Governments have failed to prioritize real threats to our safety, such as the climate emergency, habitat loss, and species extinction. But framing climate action in terms of national security is also used by those who want to greenwash militarization. Global military emissions already account for about 5.5% of total global greenhouse gas emissions, a figure which will only rise in the case of war. Militaries want us to believe they can “green” their activities, but they are major emitters of greenhouse gases, and they will remain dependent on fossil fuels for many decades at least. Standing up for the planet means advocating for peace. Campaigners should avoid conceding to governments prioritizing military spending over climate action, implying, even unintentionally, that climate impacts can be addressed through military action, and narrowing the scope of climate ambition.
Countries Most Impacted by Climate Change Exhibit the Strongest Support for Climate and Methane Action, Global Methane Hub
According to a new poll, the vast majority of Americans support taking action to minimize the impacts of climate change (77% total support), as well as actions to minimize harmful methane emissions (75% total support). The international survey, conducted in the United States and 17 total countries across the globe, examined public support for climate change solutions including reducing harmful methane emissions. With popular international efforts to monitor, report and limit methane pollution like the EU Methane Regulation now coming into force amid intensifying climate change impacts around the globe, the findings reveal strong global public support and urgency for leaders to take decisive action to curb the harmful impacts of methane.
Sigma. Natural catastrophes: insured losses on trend to USD 145 billion in 2025, Banerjee et al,, Swiss Re Management Ltd
Last year’s insured losses from natural catastrophes were on trend at USD 137 billion. Following the long-term trend of 5 ? 7% annual increase in real terms, insured losses from natural catastrophes will approach USD 145 billion in 2025. This year started with wildfires sweeping across the Los Angeles area in January. The currently estimated USD 40 billion of resultant insured losses is a record high, but the fires on their own will not be cause of notable deviation from the annual loss growth trend. The scale of losses elicited a reinsurance response, with two thirds of the claims payouts coming from primary insurers, and the rest from reinsurers.
Aussies say: We want renewables over nuclear and coal, YouGov, Veolia
Seven out of 10 Australians (71%) want a faster renewable energy transition, despite current cost-of-living pressures. Most Australians support renewable energy developments between 21-50km from their homes, with 61% open to closer facilities if electricity discounts are offered. 82% of Australians say they pay too much for electricity, highlighting the opportunity for cost effective renewable solutions.
Zero-Emission Vehicle Update 2024, Province of British Columbia
The report shows that British Columbia has been a leader in the adoption of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) for more than a decade. Since 2011, the Province has invested more than $650 million to support people in British Columbia in making the switch to cleaner transportation. That commitment has paid off as there are nearly 195,000 ZEVs on B.C. roads, up from just 5,000 in 2016. British Columbia has one of Canada’s largest public-charging networks, with more than 7,000 stations in place. This includes B.C.’s Electric Highway, a comprehensive network of fast-charging stations along all major highways and roadways in B.C. completed in 2024, so people can travel throughout the province with confidence. During this time of economic instability, the Province is reviewing programs to ensure that they best meet the needs of people in B.C.
About New Research
Click here for the why and how of Skeptical Science New Research.
Suggestions
Please let us know if you’re aware of an article you think may be of interest for Skeptical Science research news, or if we’ve missed something that may be important. Send your input to Skeptical Science via our contact form.
Previous edition
The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.
