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HomeClimate Change NewsSkeptical Science New Research for Week #19 2023

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #19 2023


Skeptical Science New Research for Week #19 2023

Posted on 11 May 2023 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Open access notables

The Intelligence Community Must Evolve To Meet the Reality of Arctic Change is a product of the Wilson Center’s  subject specalist center The Polar Institute. As its title suggests the report is squarely centered on nitty-gritty details of geopolitical adaptations forced by climate change as they’re reflected in national security matters, here (unsurprisingly given the Wilson Institute’s mission and purpose) specifically the security of the United States. Let alone what passport is in one’s pocket, the report’s provenance and urgency is a bellwether indicator of radical change in the Arctic thanks to our sudden climate accident. Recommendation #4 is rather striking but is based on a claimed track record of success in other arenas: “Prioritize Top Secret with Special Access clearances for non-IC Federal Interagency Arctic and climate experts.” This report is included in this week’s collection of government/NGO reports, which are not the product of formal academic research yet do include sharp minds working to high standards of practice— but with particular perspectives.

In Nature Commnications Earth & Environment Tiani Luo et al. bring us A framework to assess multi-hazard physical climate risk for power generation projects from publicly-accessible sources. Enthusiasts of being able to flip a light switch so as not to step on a piece of Lego (or operate a modern industrial economy) should need no more than this to fixate attention: 

Here we introduce a scalable and transparent methodology that enables multi-hazard physical climate risk assessments for any thermal or hydro power generation project. The methodology relies on basic power plant type and geolocation data inputs, publicly-available climate datasets, and hazard- and technology-specific vulnerability factors, to translate hazard severity into generation losses. We apply the methodology to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development’s early 2021 thermal and hydro power generation portfolios of 80 assets. We show that under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario, those 80 power plants could experience a 4.0-10.9 TWh loss in annual generation (or 1.87-5.07% of total annual maximum generation) by 2030 compared to its baseline losses of 0.70–0.87 TWh (or 0.33–0.41%). One of the largest drivers of the increased risk is rising water temperatures, which is currently overlooked by mainstream climate risk disclosure guidelines.

The percentages don’t sound scary but this degradation comes in the face of what’s fully expected to be a sharp increase in demand as various transport and other systems are electrified. To get a sense of the size of this problem, in the US alone there are about 11,200 utility-scale thermal generation plants and about 1,450 hydroelectric plants. The authors found 4TWh in projected loss from a sample of only 80 plants, hence doing the full math on  the entire global fleet ends up with breathtaking numbers.  Notably, much of the generation capacity so affected is located not in such relatively robust places as the US but in economies ill-situated to afford any losses at all. 

It’s not necessarily obvious at first glance but floating in the background of The Increasing Role of Seasonal Rainfall in Western U.S. Summer Streamflow by Ban, Li and Lettenmaier is a question: if a stream or river has been a year ’round feature of an ecology (or culture for that matter), what happens if it stops flowing for a couple of months per year? Likened to economic wellbeing, snowpack might be the equivalent of a steady job and money in the bank, while loss of snowpack leaves a stream or river dependent on “gig income” from rainfall, and as with some gig work rainfall may be highly seasonal. It’s not necessarily impossible for a stream and its dependents to survive in such a case, but as with a gig job there well may be too much uncertainty in the picture to feel secure. The authors suggest further work on the topic; there’s too much important information missing from this picture.

153 articles in 65 journals by 903 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Influence of changes in pH and temperature on the distribution of apparent iron solubility in the oceans, Zhu et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1029/2022gb007617

New insights into air-sea fluxes and their role in Subantarctic Mode Water formation, Tamsitt, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 10.1098/rsta.2022.0066

Observations of climate change, effects

An abrupt change of winter surface air temperature over the northern part of Korean Peninsula in the late 1980s and related atmospheric circulation variability, Jong et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106803

Can Tibetan Plateau Snow Depth Influence the Interannual Association between Tropical Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures and Rapidly Intensifying Typhoons?, Cai et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0697.1

Change of summer drought over China during 1961–2020 based on standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, Wang et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04471-8

Changes in March mean snow water equivalent since the mid-20th century and the contributing factors in reanalyses and CMIP6 climate models, Räisänen, The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-17-1913-2023

Changes of timing and duration of the ground surface freeze on the Tibetan Plateau in the highly wetting period from 1998 to 2021, Fang et al., Climatic Change 10.1007/s10584-023-03541-0

Energy budget diagnosis of changing climate feedback, Cael et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adf9302

Exceptional stratospheric contribution to human fingerprints on atmospheric temperature, Santer et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2300758120

How Does Tropical Cyclone Genesis Frequency Respond to a Changing Climate?, Zhao et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2023gl102879

Impact of extremely warm Tibetan Plateau in spring on the rare rainfall anomaly pattern in the regions west and east to Plateau in late summer 2022, Li et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106797

Increased likelihood of compound dry and hot extremes in India, Guntu et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106789

Regionalisation of heat waves in southern South America, Suli et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100569

Weakened western Pacific teleconnection pattern caused a decrease in spring persistent rainfall in north of 26°N over Southeast China, Chen et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8090

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

A clearer view of Southern Ocean air–sea interaction using surface heat flux asymmetry, Josey et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rsta.2022.0067

Investigating the potential of social media and citizen science data to track changes in species’ distributions, O’Neill et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.10063

Mean value splines and their use for climatological time series, Steinacker, International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.8089

Ship-based Observations and Climate Model Simulations of Cloud Phase over the Southern Ocean, Desai et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd038581

Southern Ocean Acidification Revealed by Biogeochemical-Argo Floats, Mazloff et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2022jc019530

When don’t we need a new extreme event attribution study?, Clarke et al., Climatic Change Open Access 10.1007/s10584-023-03521-4

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Arctic Sea Ice Loss Weakens Northern Hemisphere Summertime Storminess but Not Until the Late 21st Century, Kang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2022gl102301

Average and extreme heatwaves in Europe at 0.5–2.0 °C global warming levels in CMIP6 model simulations, Ruosteenoja & Jylhä Jylhä, Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.1007/s00382-023-06798-4

Changes in convective and stratiform precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau projected by global and regional climate models, Zhang & Gao, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8096

Lagged compound dry and wet spells in Northwest North America under 1.5?°C–4?°C global warming levels, Rezvani et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106799

Modelling climate analogue regions for a central European city, Reuter et al., Climatic Change Open Access 10.1007/s10584-023-03531-2

Orographic Cirrus and Its Radiative Forcing in NCAR CAM6, Lyu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2022jd038164

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Comparison of multimodel ensembles of global and regional climate models projections for extreme precipitation over four major river basins in southern Africa— assessment of the historical simulations, Samuel et al., Climatic Change Open Access 10.1007/s10584-023-03530-3

Investigation on potential and limitations of ERA5 Reanalysis downscaled on Italy by a convection-permitting model, Adinolfi et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access 10.1007/s00382-023-06803-w

Southern Ocean Surface Temperatures and Cloud Biases in Climate Models Connected to the Representation of Glacial Deep Ocean Circulation, Sherriff-Tadano et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0221.1

Subtropical Impact on the Tropical Double-ITCZ Bias in the GFDL CM2.1 Model, Liu et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0432.1

The leading inter-model spread of the projected changes in the Eurasian continent winter surface air temperature and large-scale circulations from the CMIP6 simulations, Liu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2023jd038829

Cryosphere & climate change

Albedo change from snow algae blooms can contribute substantially to snow melt in the North Cascades, USA, Healy & Khan, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-023-00768-8

Heat transport across the Antarctic Slope Front controlled by cross-slope salinity gradients, Si et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.add7049

Melt rates in the kilometer-size grounding zone of Petermann Glacier, Greenland, before and during a retreat, Ciracì et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2220924120

Melt rates in the kilometer-size grounding zone of Petermann Glacier, Greenland, before and during a retreat, Ciracì et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2220924120

Tracing the impacts of recent rapid sea ice changes and the A68 megaberg on the surface freshwater balance of the Weddell and Scotia Seas, Meredith et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rsta.2022.0162

Sea level & climate change

Tidal Evolution and Predictable Tide-only Inundation Along the East Coast of the United States, Gao et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2022jc019410

Using EEMD mode decomposition in combination with machine learning models to improve the accuracy of monthly sea level predictions in the coastal area of China, Jin et al., Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2023.101370

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Last Glacial Maximum ITCZ Changes from PMIP3/4 Simulations, Wang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2022jd038103

Strong Coupling Between Carbon Cycle, Climate, and Weathering During the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum, Chen et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2023gl102897

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Community theory: Testing environmental stress models, Menge, Ecology Letters 10.1111/ele.14240

Distribution of canopy-forming alga along the Western Atlantic Ocean under global warming: The importance of depth range, Carneiro et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.106013

Diversification of refugia types needed to secure the future of coral reefs subject to climate change, McClanahan et al., Conservation Biology 10.1111/cobi.14108

Expanding range and role change, Morriën et al., Annals of Botany Open Access pdf 10.1093/aob/mcq064

Experimental warming leads to convergent succession of grassland archaeal community, Zhang et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01664-x

Haemolymph pH of two important mollusc species is susceptible to seawater buffering capacity instead of pH or pCO2, Li et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.106018

Impacts of climate extremes on autumn phenology in contrasting temperate and alpine grasslands in China, Zhao et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109495

Latitudinal patterns of aquatic insect emergence driven by climate, Nash et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography Open Access 10.1111/geb.13700

Meteorological history of low-forest-greenness events in Europe in 2002–2022, Hermann et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-20-1155-2023

Oxygen depletion in Arctic lakes: Circumpolar trends, biogeochemical processes and implications of climate change, Klanten et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1029/2022gb007616

Physiologically vulnerable or resilient? Tropical birds, global warming, and redistributions, Monge et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.9985

Recent exposure to environmental stochasticity does not determine the demographic resilience of natural populations, Cant et al., Ecology Letters Open Access 10.1111/ele.14234

Regional and global climate risks for reef corals: Incorporating species-specific vulnerability and exposure to climate hazards, Kim et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.16739

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

A Continental-Scale Estimate of Soil Organic Carbon Change at NEON Sites and Their Environmental and Edaphic Controls, Hu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2022jg006981

Carbon emissions from emerging glacier-fed Himalayan lakes, Shukla et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104134

Carbon isotope fractionation by an ancestral rubisco suggests that biological proxies for CO2 through geologic time should be reevaluated, Wang et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2300466120

Characterizing Uncertainty in Pan-Arctic Land-Ocean Dissolved Organic Carbon Flux: Insights from the Onega River, Russia, Starr et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2022jg007073

Climate-driven variability of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink, Mayot et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rsta.2022.0055

Energy budget diagnosis of changing climate feedback, Cael et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adf9302

Environmental economy and greenhouse gas generation in a sanitary landfill in Mexico, Tavera-Cortés et al., International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 10.1007/s13762-023-04954-1

Finale: impact of the ORCHESTRA/ENCORE programmes on Southern Ocean heat and carbon understanding, Meijers et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rsta.2022.0070

Financial liabilities and environmental implications of unplugged wells for the Gulf of Mexico and coastal waters, Agerton et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-023-01248-1

Mesoscale Eddies Enhance the Air-Sea CO2 Sink in the South Atlantic Ocean, Ford et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2022gl102137

Methane emissions from Arctic landscapes during 2000–2015: An analysis with land and lake biogeochemistry models, Liu & Zhuang Zhuang, Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-20-1181-2023

On physical mechanisms enhancing air–sea CO2 exchange, Gutiérrez-Loza et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-19-5645-2022

Regional and global impact of CO2 uptake in the Benguela Upwelling System through preformed nutrients, Siddiqui et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-023-38208-y

Sailing through the southern seas of air–sea CO2 flux uncertainty, Landschützer et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rsta.2022.0064

Soil organic carbon models need independent time-series validation for reliable prediction, Le Noë et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-023-00830-5

Southern ocean carbon and heat impact on climate, et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rsta.2022.0056

Southern Ocean phytoplankton dynamics and carbon export: insights from a seasonal cycle approach, Thomalla et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 10.1098/rsta.2022.0068

Sparse observations induce large biases in estimates of the global ocean CO2 sink: an ocean model subsampling experiment, Hauck et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rsta.2022.0063

Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Carbon sequestration potential and the multiple functions of Nordic grasslands, Norderhaug et al., Climatic Change Open Access 10.1007/s10584-023-03537-w

Influences of CO2-cured cement powders on hydration of cement paste, Kong et al., Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology 10.1002/ghg.2141

Vegetated coastal ecosystems in the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean are an unexploited opportunity for climate change mitigation, Hatje et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-023-00828-z

Decarbonization

Collaboration and integration towards zero carbon refurbishment: A New Zealand case study, Bui et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2023.04.005

End-of-life solar photovoltaic panel waste management in India: forecasting and environmental impact assessment, Sharma et al., International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13762-023-04953-2

Global green hydrogen-based steel opportunities surrounding high quality renewable energy and iron ore deposits, Devlin et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-023-38123-2

Improving dry anaerobic methane production from OFMSW by co-digestion with grass waste and pretreatment with white rot fungi, Franceschi et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2023.04.015

Not All Light Spectra Were Created Equal: Can We Harvest Light for Optimum Food-Energy Co-Generation?, Camporese & Abou Najm, Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2022ef002900

Phase evolution under pressure, Javanbakht, Materialia Open Access 10.1016/j.mtla.2021.101199

Silicon heterojunction solar cells with up to 26.81% efficiency achieved by electrically optimized nanocrystalline-silicon hole contact layers, Lin et al., Nature Energy Open Access 10.1038/s41560-023-01255-2

State of the art and future prospects for TEG-PCM Systems: A review, Kandi et al., Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2023.04.012

Ultrahigh-rate and ultralong-life aqueous batteries enabled by special pair-dancing proton transfer, Wang et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adf4589

Black carbon

African biomass burning affects aerosol cycling over the Amazon, Holanda et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-023-00795-5

Black carbon in contrasting environments in India: Temporal variability, source apportionment and radiative forcing, Romshoo et al., Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2023.119734

Climate change communications & cognition

Are climate change policies politically costly?, Furceri et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113575

Climate Justice Communication: Strategies from U.S. Climate Activists, , Journal of Development and Social Sciences Open Access pdf 10.47205/jdss.2021(2-iv)74

COVID-19 Pandemic as an Opportunity or Challenge: Applying Psychological Distance Theory and the Co-Benefit Frame to Promote Public Support for Climate Change Mitigation on Social Media, Moore et al., Journal of Dental Education Open Access 10.1002/jdd.12344

COVID-19 and climate change: The social-psychological roots of conflict and conflict interventions during global crises, Burrows et al., WIREs Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.837

Multilevel intergroup conflict at the core of climate (in)justice: Psychological challenges and ways forward, Majumdar & Weber, WIREs Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.836

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Carbon exchange of forest plantations: global patterns and biophysical drivers, Tong et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109379

Climate change threat on socio-economic condition of agroforestry managers: A vulnerability study in Eastern Himalayan state of Mizoram, Northeast India, Thangjam et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100519

Crop yield prediction via explainable AI and interpretable machine learning: Dangers of black box models for evaluating climate change impacts on crop yield, Hu et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109458

Effects of defoliation and nitrogen on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and microbial communities in soils of cherry tree orchards, Wang et al., PeerJ Open Access 10.7717/peerj.15276

Extreme rainfall reduces one-twelfth of China’s rice yield over the last two decades, Fu et al., Nature Food 10.1038/s43016-023-00753-6

Hierarchy of value orientation and beliefs in climate change influencing the farmers’ extractive or non-extractive behavior on the farm, Karami, Environment, Development and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-023-03215-y

The effects of climate change on food production in India: evidence from the ARDL model, Ahmed et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability Open Access 10.1007/s10668-023-03209-w

Uncertainties in the effectiveness of biological control of stem borers under different climate change scenarios in Eastern Africa, Jendritzki et al., Climatic Change Open Access 10.1007/s10584-023-03514-3

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Changes in extreme precipitation in Taiwan Mei-yu season, Henny et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 10.1002/qj.4483

Geomorphic response of low-gradient, meandering and braided alluvial river channels to increased sediment supply, Kemper et al., Earth 10.1016/j.earscirev.2023.104429

Increase in summer precipitation over the Sichuan Basin in recent decades and possible causes, Nie & Sun, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8086

MOPREDAS&century database and precipitation trends in mainland Spain, 1916–2020, Gonzalez?Hidalgo et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8060

On the need for improved knowledge on the regional-to-local precipitation variability in eastern Spain under climate change, Benetó & Khodayar, Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106795

Propagation and Characteristics of Hydrometeorological Drought under Changing Climate in Irish Catchments, Meresa et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2022jd038025

The Increasing Role of Seasonal Rainfall in Western U.S. Summer Streamflow, Ban et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2023gl102892

Climate change economics

A game theoretic approach to sustainable freight transportation: competition between green, non-green and semi-green transportation networks under government sustainable policies, Fallahi et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-03115-1

Alleviating role of energy innovation on resource curse: a case of OECD countries, Akram et al., Carbon Management Open Access 10.1080/17583004.2023.2205383

On the economics of rooftop solar PV adoption, Agdas & Barooah, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113611

Quantitative and dynamic scenario analysis of SDGs outcomes upon global sustainability 1990–2050, Phillips, The Anthropocene Review 10.1177/20530196231170367

The drivers and barriers of energy efficiency, Su, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113598

Climate change mitigation public policy research

A comprehensive and policy-oriented model of the hydrogen vehicle fleet composition, applied to the UK market, Gueniat & Maryam, Environment Systems and Decisions Open Access 10.1007/s10669-023-09911-4

Acquirers’ carbon risk, environmental regulation, and cross-border mergers and acquisitions: evidence from China, Guo & Cheng, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-03276-z

An assessment of energy system transformation pathways to achieve net-zero carbon dioxide emissions in Switzerland, Panos et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-023-00813-6

Are climate change policies politically costly?, Furceri et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113575

Carbon emission trading schemes induces technology transfer: Evidence from China, Cai et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113595

Climate ambition and respective capabilities: are England’s local emissions targets spatially just?, Garvey et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2023.2208089

Climate policy costs of spatially unbalanced growth in electricity demand: the case of datacentres in Ireland, Fitiwi et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2023.2208066

Current vehicle emission standards will not mitigate climate change or improve air quality, Herberger & Ulmer, CLEAN Open Access 10.1002/clen.201000286

Different outcomes of alternative approaches to forest carbon accounting at the local level, Sun et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000191

Effects of transport–carbon intensity, transportation, and economic complexity on environmental and health expenditures, Hussain et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-023-03297-8

Emissions redistribution and environmental justice implications of California’s clean vehicle rebate project, Mejía-Duwan et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000183

Energy transition in Africa: The role of human capital, financial development, economic development, and carbon emissions, Wiredu et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2023.04.021

Forecasting carbon emissions of China’s industrial sectors via time lag effect, Wang et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-03285-y

Heating choices and residential willingness to pay for clean heating: Evidence from a household survey in rural China, Bai et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113617

International carbon markets for carbon dioxide removal, Michaelowa et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000118

Multilevel intergroup conflict at the core of climate (in)justice: Psychological challenges and ways forward, Majumdar & Weber, WIREs Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.836

Parameter uncertainties in evaluating climate policies with dynamic integrated climate-economy model, Sütçü, Environment Systems and Decisions 10.1007/s10669-023-09914-1

Principles of decarbonization politics, Mattauch & Srivastav, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01663-y

Solar business prosumers in Ukraine: Should we wait for them to appear?, Sotnyk et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113585

Sowing the seeds of change: Policy feedback and ratcheting up in South African energy policy, Schmid & Lumsden, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113597

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

A framework to assess multi-hazard physical climate risk for power generation projects from publicly-accessible sources, Luo et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-00782-w

A global scoping review on sustainability, climate migration, and climate resilience of small and medium-sized cities (SMSC), Youngquist et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101546

A review of climatic impacts on water main deterioration, Ahmad et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101552

Centering equity in the development of a community resilience planning resource, Fry et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100520

Exploring spatial feedbacks between adaptation policies and internal migration patterns due to sea-level rise, Reimann et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-023-38278-y

Geospatial Assessment of Intrinsic Resilience to the Climate Change for the Central Coast of Bangladesh, Mahmood et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100521

Global transportation infrastructure exposure to the change of precipitation in a warmer world, Liu et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-023-38203-3

The hazard components of representative key risks The physical climate perspective, Tebaldi et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100516

What drives local climate change adaptation? A qualitative comparative analysis, Braunschweiger & Ingold , Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2023.03.013

Climate change & geopolitics

When Climate Change Determines International Agreements: Evidence from Water Treaties, Candau & Gbandi , Environmental and Resource Economics Open Access 10.1007/s10640-023-00776-4

Other

Challenging the values of the polluter elite: A global consequentialist response to Evensen and Graham’s (2022) ‘The irreplaceable virtues of in-person conferences’, Whitmarsh & Kreil, Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2022.101881

Growth and actual leaf temperature modulate CO2 responsiveness of monoterpene emissions from holm oak in opposite ways, Staudt et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-19-4945-2022

Objectively combining climate sensitivity evidence, Lewis, Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-022-06468-x

Recent state transition of the Arctic Ocean’s Beaufort Gyre, Lin et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-023-01184-5

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Going beyond market-based mechanisms to finance nature-based solutions and foster sustainable futures, Chausson et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000169

Heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean: the state of the art and future priorities, Meijers et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rsta.2022.0071

How the Green Architecture of the 2023–2027 Common Agricultural Policy could have been greener, Guyomard et al., Ambio Open Access 10.1007/s13280-023-01861-0

Placing diverse knowledge systems at the core of transformative climate research, Orlove et al., Ambio Open Access 10.1007/s13280-023-01857-w

Put the money where the gaps are: Priority areas for climate resilience research in the Caribbean, Birthwright & Smith, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000211

Representation of adaptation in quantitative climate assessments, van Maanen et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-023-01644-1

Research needs for a food system transition, McDermid et al., Climatic Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-023-03507-2

Stepping up action, Editors,  Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1016/b978-155558327-9/50014-3

Trajectories of socio-ecological change in mountains, Lavorel et al., Regional Environmental Change Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-023-02063-w

Book reviews

America’s energy gamble: people, economy and planet, Boyle, Human Ecology 10.1007/s10745-022-00323-7

The pivotal generation: why we have a moral responsibility to slow climate change right now, Dent, International Journal of Environmental Studies Open Access 10.1080/00207233.2022.2099114


Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Global Warming’s Four Indias, 2022: An Audience Segmentation Analysis, Leiserowitz et al, ale Program on Climate Change Communication

From October 21, 2021 to January 9, 2022, a research team from the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication (YPCCC) and the Centre for Voting Opinion & Trends in Election Research (CVoter) conducted a nationally representative survey of 4,619 Indian adults (18+). The study was designed to investigate the Indian public’s climate change awareness, beliefs, policy support, and behavior, as well as perceptions of local weather and climate patterns and vulnerability to extreme weather events. The authors identify and describe differences among subgroups of the Indian public by conducting an audience segmentation analysis based on people’s global warming beliefs, risk perceptions, and behaviors. The authors identify four unique audiences within the Indian population – Global Warming’s Four Indias – that each respond to global warming in their own distinct way.

200 and counting: Global financial institutions are exiting coal, Saurabh Trivedi and Shantanu Srivastava, The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis

Over 200 globally significant financial institutions have established coal exclusion policies, with divestment momentum away from coal accelerating in the last two years despite record profits being enjoyed by coal companies on the back of the energy crisis. Europe leads the way with the highest number of financial institutions divesting from coal (114) and with more stringent exclusion policies compared to other regions. Asia has shown a significant increase in divestment, jumping from 10 financial institutions with coal exclusion policies between 2013 and April 2019 to 41 within the next three years. Momentum is also building in the number of policy upgrades in the last two years, these strengthened coal exit policies demonstrating that financial institutions are increasingly recognizing climate risk as a source of financial risk and ultimately systemic risk for the global financial system.

The Intelligence Community Must Evolve To Meet the Reality of Arctic Change, Marisol Maddox and Lyston Lea, Wilson Center and Polar Institute

U.S. strategies for the Arctic consistently reflect the desire for the region to be stable, peaceful, and governed by international law. The 2022 National Defense Strategy reflects an understanding of the region’s strategic importance but also that “U.S. activities and posture in the Arctic should be calibrated, as the Department preserves its focus on the Indo-Pacific region.” The targeted interventions recommended in the publication seek to enhance intelligence support to policy and military interests in the region, in such a calibrated way. By enhancing coordination and collaboration, tweaking bureaucratic structures, and strengthening engagement with allies, the U.S. will be able to grow intelligence community efficiency and effectiveness, thereby alleviating unnecessary effort or redundancy while better positioning our country for the complex challenges to come. The authors analyze three threats in the Arctic and provide six recommendations for the Intelligence community to consider.


Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it’s frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light”  but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article’s relevance and importance. 

  • Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate

  • The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you’re interested in an article title and it is not listed here as “open access,” be sure to check the link anyway. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn’t to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers’ impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

  • Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a “yes” to this automatically. 
  • Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week’s 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to “preprint” versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we’ll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as “preprint.”

The section “Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives” includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of “perspectives,” observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

Suggestions

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Journals covered

A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.

Previous edition

The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.



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