Skeptical Science New Research for Week #19 2025

Scaling up renewables without phasing down fossil fuels? Rethinking the role of financial globalization, Ly, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114654

Urban and non-urban contributions to the social cost of carbon, Estrada et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-59466-y

Climate change mitigation public policy research

A tale of two (un)Just Transitions: the end of the coal-fired power plants in Portugal, Moreira, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114658

Carbon offsetting in city climate action: role, determinants and characteristics, Chappell et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2025.2499606

Drivers, barriers and policy options to renewable energy development in Native American communities: A systematic review, Nsude et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104092

Green energy in grey areas: The financial and policy challenges of Kazakhstan’s energy transition, Zhakiyev et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104046

Just sortition, communitarian deliberation: Two proposals for grounded climate assemblies, Curato et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104070

Policies shaping energy transitions in ports and harbours: A ‘whole systems’ perspective from Norway, Damman et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104101

Policy relevant lessons from research on renewable energy auctions, Anatolitis et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114624

That’s none of my business: A holistic framework for evaluating corporate decarbonization at the core business, Frisch et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104094

The gap between discourse and action in the United Kingdom: Exploring the weakness of climate action in the post-COVID political space, Stephenson & Allwood, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104093

Trading off regional and overall energy system design flexibility in the net-zero transition, van Greevenbroek et al., Nature Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41893-025-01556-2

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Climate change adaptation in cities: Enhancement of pedestrian thermal comfort using afforestation and greening buildings, Atawneh & Alqadi, Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102421

Climate sensitive designs for policy makers: How LES model resolution affects accuracy in capturing urban micro-scale weather during heatwaves, Sungur et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102400

Four Principles of Transformative Adaptation to Climate Change-Exacerbated Hazards in Informal Settlements, Howard et al., WIREs Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.70008

Future climatic risks faced by the Beautiful China Initiative: A perspective for 2035 and 2050, Ma et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.01.002

How consistent are adaptation strategies with ongoing climatic and environmental changes in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta: A systematic review, Vo et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104064

Resilience investments under climate change: a regional case study in Southeast Australia, Box et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1504043

Water management: global differences and similarities in guidelines for forest road design and potentials for climate change adaptation, Pohle & Jaeger, European Journal of Forest Research Open Access 10.1007/s10342-025-01777-2

Why history matters to planning: Climate change, colonialism & maladaptation, Kehler & Birchall , Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104076

Climate change impacts on human health

Anthropogenic climate change contributes to wildfire particulate matter and related mortality in the United States, Law et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02314-0

Cognitive decline in relation to later-life high temperature exposure in a Chinese nationwide cohort, Huang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.11.002

Mitigating urban heat stress through green infrastructure: A climate service approach, Oukawa et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102384

Climate change & geopolitics

Raw material demand and geopolitical risk in carbon-neutral futures, Naegler et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114622

Other Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

30 years of Energy for Sustainable Development: A bibliometric overview, Amirbagheri et al., Energy for Sustainable Development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101741

Editorial: Australia’s Tinderbox Drought, Evans & Abram, Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100766

The Case for the Anthropocene Epoch Is Stronger Than the Case for the Holocene Epoch, Skelton & Noone, Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005719

The post-truth era and how science education keeps ignoring it, Erduran, Science 10.1126/science.adx5458

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Climate change made weather conditions leading to deadly South Korean wildfires about twice as likely, Barnes et al., World Weather Attribution

More than a dozen fires broke out on March 22nd and 23rd and spread rapidly over the following days. More than 48,000 hectares burned – over 20,000 hectares more than the second most devastating wildfires, in April 2022, and more than ten times the annual average burnt area. Even in today’s climate, that has warmed by 1.3°C due primarily to the burning of fossil fuels, the combination of high temperatures, low humidity and high wind speeds (HDWI) observed over the 5 days following March 22nd, when the fires broke out, was very unusual. In the current climate they are expected on average about once every 300 years. However, independent of how the HDWI is calculated, based on weather observations, the event would have been extremely rare if the climate had not warmed and the intensity of the peak 2025 March HDWI is about 25% more intense in today’s climate compared to the cooler pre-industrial climate.

The impact of nature loss and climate change on the cost of living, Green Allaince

The authors reveal how climate change and nature loss are directly increasing annual household costs by £233.49 across England through higher insurance premiums, water bills and food prices. These rising costs stem from problems that can in part be addressed by managing land differently so that it does more to protect communities from flooding, and food supplies from climate change. he authors show that the government’s Environmental Land Management scheme is central to tackling these challenges and call for its budget to be boosted in the upcoming spending review.

Seizing the Industrial Carbon Removal Opportunity, Maesano et al., RMI

The imperative for existing industries to integrate carbon removal into their operations is no longer solely an environmental consideration; it is a strategic opportunity for long-term commercial success and resilience in a rapidly changing world. The authors underscore that the dual forces of commercial opportunity and emissions urgency are converging, creating a pivotal moment for industry leaders to act decisively.

Voters Reject Trump’s Free Pass to Polluters, Jennifer Hadayia and Catherine Fraser, Data for Progress

Trump has proposed rolling back 31 environmental regulations, including those that aim to cut pollution from cars and trucks and restrict emissions of mercury. Rolling back rules and allowing bad actors to further exceed their permit limits does not prioritize public health or public safety, especially in an already-lax regulatory environment. Voters are concerned. New polling finds that a majority of voters (68%) are concerned by these repeals. This includes 82% of Latino and 79% of Black voters — highlighting how both the harms of and concerns around these environmental rollbacks often most impact people of color. The authors found that voters are particularly concerned about the impact of these rollbacks on human health, with a plurality of respondents (37%) saying that these impacts are their top concern, followed by 17% who say accelerated climate change impacts. Black voters are especially concerned about harms to human health as a result of these repeals, with 43% saying it is their top concern.

Progress in adapting to climate change: 2025 report to Parliament, Brown et al., Climate Change Committee

The increasing impacts of climate change are clear, both globally and in the UK. Adaptation is needed now to ensure that the UK is prepared for today’s extreme weather as well as the rapidly increasing severity of future risks. The costs of these impacts are already being felt, and the risks will continue to grow even if international targets to limit global warming are met. Action is needed now whilst we still have the opportunity to address these risks in a way that is both cost-effective and timely. The authors assess the extent to which the UK’s Third National Adaptation Programme (NAP3) and its implementation are preparing the UK for climate change. It is the Committee’s first statutory progress report on NAP3 and builds on the initial Independent Assessment of the Third National Adaptation Programme, published in March 2024. It is also the Committee’s first statutory progress report on NAP3 for the new UK Government.

Delaware Value of Solar: A Study of the Costs and Benefits of Net Metering, Gabel Associates, Delaware Sustainable Energy Utility

The authors evaluate the costs and benefits of behind-the-meter solar and net metering in Delaware. One of the principal arguments used by critics of continuing net metering is an allegation that it provides a subsidy to customers who have solar projects installed on their home or business at the expense of customers who do not. To determine whether such a subsidy exists, it is necessary to consider whether the benefits of net metered solar energy exceed the cost of paying the retail net metering credit. As with any product or service, if the benefits realized by all other users of the system exceed the costs, there is no subsidy. The authors address this issue by carefully assessing the value of net metering relative to the value that solar energy provides: a) to the grid and all customers attached to the grid (entitled “direct benefits”); and b) broader benefits provided to all residents of Delaware (entitled “societal benefits”). Direct benefits accrue to all ratepayers and include lower costs due to reduced fossil fuel-based power generation and the avoidance of forward-looking transmission and distribution expenditures. Societal benefits accrue to the public at large and are not reflected in customer rates. This includes environmental and health benefits from reduced emissions as well as economic benefits from increased jobs, consumer spending, and tax revenues caused by investments in solar capacity. Additionally, net metered solar supports the overall reliability and resiliency of Delaware’s power grid, helping the economy and avoiding the potential health and safety harms of blackouts.

The State of Clean Energy Jobs, Climate Power

In just two years, clean energy incentives sparked a historic surge in U.S. factory construction and created over 400,000 new jobs. Now, though, President Trump is moving quickly to dismantle key parts of the sector, which would crush this U.S. manufacturing renaissance, raise energy costs, and stile American innovation with impacts reaching decades into the future. Across all clean energy companies, over 60,000 jobs have already been threatened or lost since Trump’s election. Even companies that publicly announced new jobs following the clean energy investments of 2022 are now seeing growth reverse, with new job numbers falling from 406,000 at the end of last year to 399,000 by the end of the first quarter of 2025. In fact, it marked the first quarter since the summer of 2022 that clean energy job creation declined, ending two and a half years of consistent job growth. Already, the record level of factory construction investment driven by clean energy since 2022 has turned down sharply under Trump.

$1.14 trillion in corporate value located in countries most at risk from climate upheaval, Jess Middleton and John Babalola, Maplecroft

Up to USD1.14 trillion in corporate value linked to companies in the world’s five largest stock markets is located in countries expected to experience the greatest socio-economic impacts from climate change. Second-order climate risks, such as economic and political instability, poverty, migration and food insecurity could become highly impactful in 48 countries by 2050. In an intermediate emissions scenario, where average global temperatures are likely to rise by up to 2.7°C, the number of countries that are most vulnerable to climate change doubles by mid-century, up from 24 in the current climate. Based on the current locations of assets and market capitalization valuations, there will be a dramatic increase in the financial exposure of companies and investors in the S&P 500, DAX, CAC 40, Nikkei 225 and FTSE 100 from the current level of just USD34.8 billion.

Setting the standard. Ecologi’s industry-leading carbon project assessment framework, Jackson et al., Ecologi

The authors provide an outline of a process to assess and select projects which can be funded by customers. The assessment has three levels: Standard-level, Methodology- (or ‘Protocol-’) level, and Project-level. Six due diligence principles underpin the assessment process and govern behavior in the voluntary carbon market. These include, for example, keeping the life-cycle of a carbon credit short – to ensure the maximum amount of carbon credit funding as possible goes back to the local community. The full assessment process includes three steps: initial screening, full project scoring, and project labeling. Project-level scores involve an assessment of the project across three pillars – its impacts on Climate, Nature and People – and two dimensions: quality and risk.

Energy Security in an Insecure World, Bond et al., Ember

The authors examine the fossil fuel import dependency that built up during the Pax Americana and analyses its implications in today’s new geopolitical environment. The analysis draws upon data from the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Balance database. The new security strategy is electrotech. Prudent nations are pursuing a two-pronged strategy: shifting energy supply to local renewables and directing energy use toward domestically generated electricity. With renewable potential 120 times greater than fossil fuels—and available everywhere—energy independence is within reach for every nation.

Making the most of green electricity. Key principles for identifying flexibility gaps in the power system, Consentec GmbH, Agora Energiewende

The authors provide recommendations maximizing the use of available decarbonized electricity – provided it remains cost-efficient. If well-designed, Flexibility Needs Assessments can form the basis for policy measures that address market barriers and unlock investment in flexibility solutions – accelerating decoupling from fossil fuels and lowering power system costs.

2024, Climate Change Accountability Report, Province of British Columbia

The report provides the most recent data on British Columbia’s (B.C.) progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, along with projections of where the province could stand in 2030, based on historical data and energy-economy modelling. B.C.’s current policy landscape doesd not allow the 2030 targets to be met. However, the province is reducing emissions intensity as we grow a cleaner economy. Measures, such as the zero-carbon building code, biofuel blending and heat-pump adoption, will support additional emissions reductions by 2030 and beyond.

Global Methane Tracker 2025, International Energy Agency

Methane is responsible for around 30% of the rise in global temperatures since the Industrial Revolution, and rapid and sustained reductions in methane emissions are key to limiting near-term global warming and improving air quality. The energy sector – including oil, natural gas, coal and bioenergy – accounts for more than 35% of methane emissions from human activity and has some of the best opportunities to cut these emissions. The annually updated Global Methane Tracker is an essential tool for raising awareness about methane emissions across the energy sector and the opportunities to bring them down. The Tracker presents the latest sector-wide emissions estimates – based on the most recent data from satellites and measurement campaigns – and discusses different abatement options along with their associated costs. This 2025 update adds several new elements, including: country-level historical emissions data; an interactive tool to explore international methane initiatives; and estimates of emissions from abandoned fossil fuel facilities. It also features a fully open-access model for exploring abatement options in the oil and gas sector.

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