Skeptical Science New Research for Week #20 2025
Posted on 15 May 2025 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Institutionalizing politicized science, Moynihan & Herd, Science [editorial]:
The opening months of the Trump administration represent a historic disruption to America’s scientific agencies. Staff have been fired or reassigned in the name of efficiency, resulting in chaos. Grants have been canceled mid-project for featuring the wrong words. “Pauses” and “reviews” are designed to block spending, in the hope that Congress will make the current impoundment of funds a baseline for permanent disinvestment. While the scientific community waits to see what the new normal will be, the Trump administration has a plan to institutionalize a much more politicized structure of control over government broadly, including both public scientific investments and the use of scientific knowledge in policy actions.
Earth’s Energy Imbalance More Than Doubled in Recent Decades, Mauritsen et al., AGU Advances [commentary]:
Global warming is caused by the imbalance between the incoming radiation from the Sun and the reflected and outgoing infrared radiation from the Earth. The imbalance leads to energy accumulation in the atmosphere, oceans and land, and melting of the cryosphere, resulting in increasing temperatures, rising sea levels, and more extreme weather around the globe according the the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Observations from space of the energy imbalance shows that it is rising much faster than expected, and in 2023 it reached values two times higher than the best estimate from IPCC. We argue that we must strive to better understand this fundamental change in Earth’s climate state, and ensure our capacity to monitor it in the future.
Heat-related rest-break recommendations for farmworkers in California based on wet-bulb globe temperature, Parajuli et al., Communications Earth & Environment
Extreme heat is a global public health concern that is becoming more frequent and severe in recent periods. Translating Earth science data into policy-relevant metrics, such as rest breaks, is challenging but needed to protect outdoor workers from heat stress. Here, we determine rest-break requirements for the farmworkers of the Imperial and Coachella Valleys in southern California, which have a high poverty rate and the highest heat-illness rates in California. We used high-resolution outputs from a validated Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) at 1-km grid resolution that includes irrigation, a key modulator of heat stress in the study region. We calculated exceedances of heat stress indicators under three existing policy guidelines that use wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT), heat index (HI), or dry-bulb temperature (DBT), and translated them into rest breaks needed for farmworker safety. WBGT-based rest minutes are most sensitive to the spatiotemporal variation in heat exposure compared to DBT or HI and vary with acclimatization status, season, and work shifts. Recommended rest breaks to protect farmworkers from heat stress range from 2 to 32 min per work-hour between April and August. Although results are specific to California, our method is adaptable for calculating region-specific rest break requirements worldwide.
This research is funded by the University of California Office of the President (UCOP) Climate Action Grant award R02CP7521 “Rural heat islands: Mapping and mitigating farmworker exposure to heat stress” and in part by the USDA’s National Institute of Food and Agriculture’s From Learning to Leading: Cultivating the Next Generation of Diverse Food and Agriculture Professionals Program (NEXTGEN) grant no. 2023-70440-40156/project accession no. 1030734. S.S.P.S. was partly supported by a National Science Foundation grant (Award No. 2324008). Computational work in this research was carried out at Expanse supercomputer at San Diego Supercomputing Center through the ACCESS program of the National Science Foundation.
Conspiracy belief and opposition to wind farms: A longitudinal study, Winter et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology:
The extension of wind energy plays a crucial role in achieving global climate goals. However, wind farms often face opposition by local communities. Recent research found cross-sectional evidence that conspiracy belief is an important predictor of wind farm opposition. The current work extends this finding and sheds light on the temporal relationship between these variables. A preregistered, three-wave study among German adults (N = 297) using Random-Intercept Cross-Lagged Panel analyses found support for our hypothesis that an increase in conspiracy mentality (i.e., the general propensity to believe conspiracy theories) predicts more negative attitudes towards wind farms close to one’s hometown four months later. We also found evidence for the opposite direction, namely that an increase in negative attitudes predicts higher conspiracy mentality four months later. Thus, conspiracy belief and wind farm opposition seem to mutually reinforce each other. Interventions and preventive measures should aim to break this vicious cycle that otherwise might curb the progress of the energy transition.
Software to Enable Ocean Discoveries: A Case Study With ICESat-2 and Argo, Scheick et al., Geoscience Data Journal
Increased anthropogenic stressors (e.g., warming, acidification, wildfires, and other extreme events) present complex observational challenges for Earth science, and no one sensor can “do it all”. While many remote sensing technologies are available at present, scientific disciplines are often trained to use only a specific subset, greatly limiting scientific advancements. Here we present open-source software (icepyx) that lowers the barrier for entry for two remote platforms offering vertically-resolved information about the ocean’s subsurface: ICESat-2 (Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite 2) and Argo floats. icepyx provides object-oriented code for querying and downloading ICESat-2 and Argo data within a single analysis workflow. icepyx natively handles ICESat-2 data access and read-in; here we introduce the Query, Unify, Explore SpatioTemporal (QUEST) module as a framework for adapting icepyx to easily access and ingest other datasets and present Argo data as the initial use case. Seamless retrieval of coincident data from ICESat-2 and Argo enables improved targeted and exploratory studies across the cryosphere and open ocean realms. We close with recommendations for future work, discussion of the value of open science, relevance of our work to upcoming satellite missions, and an invitation to join our programming community.
K.B. acknowledges NASA grant #80NSSC20K0970, J.S. acknowledges NASA grant #80NSSC21K0505. Z.F. thanks #NPP168273S under the NASA Postdoctoral Program.
From this week’s government/NGO section:
Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990-2023, Environmental Protection Agency
Overall, gross CO2 emissions have decreased by 4.2 percent since 1990 and decreased by 2.7 percent since 2022, consistent with trends in fuel combustion emissions. In the United States, fossil fuel combustion accounted for 92.7 percent of gross CO2 emissions in 2023. Nationally, within fossil fuel combustion, the transportation sector was the largest emitter of CO2 in 2023, followed by electric power generation. The decrease in coal use and associated emissions from 2022 to 2023 is mainly due to reduced use in the electric power sector and is driving the overall reduction. The increase in natural gas consumption and associated emissions in 2023 is observed mostly in the electric power and industrial sectors, the increase in petroleum use is mainly in the transportation sector, Note: The EPA did not publish this report on its web site according to mandatory convention; the Environmental Defense Fund filed a Freedom of Information Act request for the report and published it publicly last week.
Arctic Climate Change Update 2024: Key Trends and Impacts. Summary for Policy-makers, Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme
Between 1979 and 2023, the Arctic warmed three times faster than the global average. Arctic annual air temperatures have risen by 3°C since 1971. Arctic surface air temperatures are increasingly rising above the freezing point of 0°C. Precipitation in the Arctic increased by 2–10 percent between 1979 and 2023; with most of the increase coming in the form of rain at the expense of snow. The surface area with daily precipitation in the Arctic has also increased, hence precipitation has become both more intense and widespread. Satellite observations of extreme wildfires around the world from 2003–2023 show that the largest regional increase was in the Eurasian Arctic, where the number of extreme wildfires increased by more than a factor of four. Ice losses from Arctic glaciers accounted for most of the world’s land-ice loss from 1979–2023, making the Arctic the largest regional source of global sea-level rise. From 1992–2020, the rate of land-ice loss from Greenland was nearly twice that of Antarctica, with an averaged
146 articles in 60 journals by 957 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
A spectroscopic theory for how mean rainfall changes with surface temperature, Cohen & Pincus, Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adv6191
Changes in the Coastal Wind Field and River Runoff Conditions Expose Kongsfjorden (Svalbard) to the Influence of Atlantic Water, De Rovere et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2024jc020924
Northeast Pacific Marine Heatwave Mechanism Inferred from Adjoint Sensitivities, Wang et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0274.1
Predictability of the Onset of the Rainy Season Across Thailand: Mechanisms and Non-Stationary Behaviour, Moron et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.8884
Seasonal Contrasts in the Trends of Landfalling Tropical Cyclone Track Density in China (1949–2023), Wang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl114482
Observations of climate change, effects
Anthropogenic influence has intensified the severity of summer compound hot and drought events over Xinjiang, China, Zhang et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100774
Changes in Global Marine Heatwaves in a Non-stationary Climate, Xu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl114497
Global warming drives a threefold increase in persistence and 1 °C rise in intensity of marine heatwaves, Marcos et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2413505122
Joint estimation of trend in bulk and extreme daily precipitation in Switzerland, Haruna et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100769
Sea surface temperature and marine heatwave variability in interconnected basins: The Black-Marmara-Aegean Seas, Saçu et al., Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2025.101555
The Unprecedented Late-Summer 2023 Heatwave in Southeastern South America: Attribution and future projection of similar events, Kim et al., Weather and Climate Extremes 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100772
Winter Wind Trends and the Status of House Windbreaks in the Northwestern Kanto Plain, Japan, Koshina, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8894
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
Estimating temperature variability and trends from a combination of seismic and in situ data, Peng & Callies Callies, Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rspa.2024.0494
Satellite-derived global-ocean phytoplankton phenology indices, Nicholson et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-17-1959-2025
Seamless Continuity in CERES Energy Balanced and Filled (EBAF) Surface Radiation Budget across Multiple Satellites, Kato et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0568.1
Software to Enable Ocean Discoveries: A Case Study With ICESat-2 and Argo, Scheick et al., Geoscience Data Journal Open Access 10.1002/gdj3.291
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
A hybrid machine learning-based past performance and envelope approach for rainfall projection in Sarawak, Malaysia, Sa’adi et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102442
Climate change prediction in Saudi Arabia using a CNN GRU LSTM hybrid deep learning model in al Qassim region, Elabd et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-025-00607-0
End-of-Century Changes in Orographic Precipitation with the Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research Model over the Western United States, Currier et al., Journal of Hydrometeorology 10.1175/jhm-d-24-0071.1
Evolution of Heat Extremes Under Net-Zero CO2 Emissions, Cassidy et al., Open Access 10.22541/essoar.172900701.19344141/v1
Future Tropical Cyclones in the Western North Pacific under Global Warming Trend: Track Cluster Analysis, Huang et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0217.1
Scenario-Dependent Future Trends of Consecutive Dry Days From July to September: A Case Study for Hungary, Kis & Pongrácz, International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.8903
Unprecedented East Asian Heat Dome in August 2022: Underrated Joint Roles of North Pacific and North Atlantic, Yu & Sun, Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108141
Weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Contributes to Opposite Responses of ENSO and the Atlantic Niño/Niña to Greenhouse Warming, Yang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl114761
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024
Representation of extreme El Niño events and associated atmospheric moisture flux divergence in the central-eastern tropical Pacific in a CMIP6 model ensemble, Sanabria et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100746
Reproducibility and Trends of Extreme Climate Indices in Japan: Insights From Dynamical JRA-55 Downscaling, Murazaki et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8892
The Effect of Different Climate Sensitivity Priors on Projected Climate: A Probabilistic Analysis, Brown et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl113505
The Fast Response of Land Precipitation to Historical Anthropogenic Black Carbon and Sulfate Aerosols in the GFDL ESM4 Climate Model, Zhang et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0240.1
Too-stable North Atlantic climate system in CMIP6 experiments undermines precipitation projections in Europe, Halifa?Marín et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society Open Access 10.1002/qj.4999
Cryosphere & climate change
Annual mass change of the world’s glaciers from 1976 to 2024 by temporal downscaling of satellite data with in situ observations, Dussaillant et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-17-1977-2025
Disentangling the oceanic drivers behind the post-2000 retreat of Sermeq Kujalleq, Greenland (Jakobshavn Isbræ), Rashed et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-19-1775-2025
Glacier-level and gridded mass change in river sources in the eastern Tibetan Plateau region (ETPR) from the 1970s to 2000, Zhu et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-17-1851-2025
Speed-up, slowdown, and redirection of ice flow on neighbouring ice streams in the Pope, Smith, and Kohler region of West Antarctica, Selley et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2024-1442
The system of atmosphere, land, ice and ocean in the region near the 79N Glacier in northeast Greenland: synthesis and key findings from the Greenland Ice Sheet–Ocean Interaction (GROCE) experiment, Kanzow et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-19-1789-2025
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Absence of Elevation-Dependent Warming in Antarctica Inferred From Blue Ice Paleoclimate Records, Legrain et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl113165
Persistent greenhouse conditions in Eocene North America point to lower climate sensitivity, Smith & Bruch, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02288-z
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
Assessing Climate Impact: Distribution Modeling and Conservation Assessments of Sesamum (Pedaliaceae) Species, Zhigila et al., 10.22541/au.173009731.10761775/v1
Assessing the vulnerability of commercial bivalves to intensifying atmospheric heatwaves in coastal ecosystems, Castro-Olivares et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107210
Calcium carbonate production by the massive coral Mussismilia hispida in subtropical reefs of the Southwestern Atlantic, Oliveira et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107218
Climate change and threatened species conservation in China: Impacts and adaptation strategies, YU et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.05.001
Climate Change and Topography Drive the Expansion of Betula ermanii in the Alpine Treeline Ecotone of the Changbai Mountain, Chen et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.71368
Climate change drives persistent organic pollutant dynamics in marine environments, Noyes et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02348-4
Diminished biophysical cooling benefits of global forestation under rising atmospheric CO2, Kan et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-59547-y
Drivers of plant community composition and diversity in low Arctic western Greenland, Nabe?Nielsen et al., Ecography Open Access 10.1002/ecog.07816
Functional diversity shapes the stability of reef fish biomass under global change, Mahaut et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rspb.2025.0252
Future of Three Endemic Woody Species of Colutea (Fabaceae) in a Changing Climate in Iran, Zeraatkar et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.71318
Global Tiger Density Linked With Forest Carbon Stock, Top-Down and Bottom-Up, Roberts et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70191
Global warming disrupts the relative allocation between sexual and clonal reproduction in a common salt marsh plant, Jiang et al., Ecology 10.1002/ecy.70101
Increasing susceptibility of vegetation productivity to compound drought from 2001 to 2020, Tang et al., Global and Planetary Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104826
Observed global ocean phytoplankton phenology indices, Nicholson et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2024-21
Plant Responses to Anomalous Heat and Drought Events in the Sonoran Desert, Wilder et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70217
Prediction of Future Chlorophyll-a Concentrations in Large Eutrophic Shallow Lakes Under Multiple Stressors, Wei et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005293
Risks of unavoidable impacts on forests at 1.5 °C with and without overshoot, Munday et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-025-02327-9
Short-term heat shock exposure affects the productivity of two habitat-forming NE Atlantic kelp species differently, Davey et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107213
Snow Height Sensors Reveal Phenological Advance in Alpine Grasslands, Zehnder et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70195
Two Hypotheses About Climate Change and Species Distributions, Drake et al., Ecology Letters Open Access 10.1111/ele.70134
Variation of pollen season trends under mediterranean climate: a systematic review, Boullayali et al., Aerobiologia 10.1007/s10453-025-09862-0
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
Carbon accumulation in recently deposited peat is reduced by increased nutrient supply, Ehnvall et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-59387-w
Cold-water coral mounds are effective carbon sinks in the western Mediterranean Sea, Greiffenhagen et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-22-2201-2025
Deciphering seawater acidification in the Muping Marine Ranch in summer: pH vs. aragonite saturation state, Wang et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107196
Drivers on Carbon Accumulation Vary Along the Hydrological Gradient of a Subarctic Patterned Peatland, Zhang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2024jg008677
Effects of different urban vegetation cover and green space types on soil greenhouse gas emissions and carbon sequestration, Zhang et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1555628
Explosive volcanic eruptions can act as carbon sinks, Delmelle et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-59692-4
Global Methane Budget 2000–2020, Saunois et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-17-1873-2025
Increased plant productivity exacerbates subsoil carbon losses under warming via nitrogen mining, Wang et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-025-01697-1
Nonuniform organic carbon stock loss in soils across disturbed blue carbon ecosystems, Fu et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-59752-9
Organic Matter Composition Versus Microbial Source: Controls on Carbon Loss From Fen Wetland and Permafrost Soils, Starr et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2024jg008445
Reporting of Gridded (0.1°×0.1°) Methane Emission Data for India to Redefine Global Climate Studies, Mishra et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2025-65
Role of Forest Carbon Change in Shaping Future Land Use and Land Cover Change, Luo et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70219
Sensitivity of climate effects of hydrogen to leakage size, location, and chemical background, Skeie et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-25-4929-2025
Soil Carbon Saturation: What Do We Really Know?, Georgiou et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70197
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
Spring factors controlling interannual CO2 flux variations in a subtropical humid alpine meadow on the southeastern Tibetan Plateau, Zeng et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110603
Temporal dynamics of shoot and xylem growth in Chinese fir: Implications for carbon allocation, Mou et al., Dendrochronologia 10.1016/j.dendro.2025.126324
Tracking air pollution and CO2 emissions in 13,189 urban areas worldwide using large geospatial datasets, Kim et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02270-9
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
Atmospheric chemistry enhances the climate mitigation potential of tree restoration, Allen et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02343-9
Capturing context: A sociotechnical feasibility assessment of carbon capture and storage in Norwegian waste incineration, Hansen et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104118
Carbon capture and storage in the United Kingdom: history, policies and politics, Markusson, Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2025.2503688
Decarbonization
Comparative analysis of different PV technologies under the tropical environments, Femin et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-025-99958-x
Hydrogen innovation: An exploration of its determinants across Europe, Leggerini et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114675
Quantifying health benefits of sustainable aviation fuels: Modeling decreased ultrafine particle emissions and associated impacts on communities near the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, Blanco et al., Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2025.121280
The future of cement: Technological innovation in representative concentration pathways, Maes et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology 10.1111/jiec.70007
The impact of climate change on wind and solar photovoltaic power potential and distribution in China, ZHU et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.015
When beyond compliance is the expectation: the realities of environmental planning and permitting for renewable energy projects in the great plains of the United States, Burch et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104108
Geoengineering climate
An Indigenous perspective on climate engineering, Busch et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104117
Techno-economic analysis of ocean iron fertilization, Ward et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1509367
Aerosols
Climatology, trend and correlations of aerosol, cloud and meteorology over the climatologically important monsoon and adjacent northern regions of Pakistan, Anwar et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108136
Climate change communications & cognition
Conspiracy belief and opposition to wind farms: A longitudinal study, Winter et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102620
Let’s talk about climate change: How immersive media experiences stimulate climate conversations., Meijers et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102610
Role-playing for better climate discussions: Exploring climate change engagement among Austrian youth, Koller & Pahl, Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102616
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Assessing the vulnerability of commercial bivalves to intensifying atmospheric heatwaves in coastal ecosystems, Castro-Olivares et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107210
Efficacy of China’s low-carbon agricultural pilot policy: a company-farmer analysis from the middle and lower yangtze river basin, China, Jia et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1581752
Enhancing climate resilience of pastoral communities through informal institutions: evidence from Inner Mongolia, Li et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2025.2500454
Globally increased cropland soil exposure to climate extremes in recent decades, Feng et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-59544-1
Impacts of climate change on cotton production and advancements in genomic approaches for stress resilience enhancement, Khan et al., Journal of Cotton Research Open Access 10.1186/s42397-025-00223-3
Maladaptation in cereal crop landraces following a soot-producing climate catastrophe, M. McLaughlin et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-59488-6
Mapping the research landscape of livestock adaptation to climate change: a bibliometric review using Scopus database (1994–2023), Manyike et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1567674
Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024
Simulating the growth and yields of Brachiaria Brizantha using the CROPGRO-perennial forage model under present and future climate conditions in subhumid environments of Ethiopia, Dereje et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110605
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Advancing decision-making amid uncertainty in water governance and management under climate change, Brugnach et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000617
Decelerating Response of Western US Runoff to Shrinking Snowpacks, Ban et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl114629
Joint estimation of trend in bulk and extreme daily precipitation in Switzerland, Haruna et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100769
Mapping of the susceptibility of China?Russia crude oil pipelines to water damage in permafrost regions in Northeast China, Wang et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.007
Warmer winter under climate change would reshape the winter subsurface drainage pattern in Eastern Canada, Li et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110602
Weakening trends of glacier and snowmelt-induced floods in the Upper Yarkant River Basin, Karakoram during 1961–2022, Yi et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.008
Climate change economics
Assessing the economic impact of climate risk on green and low-carbon transformation, Qin et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1557388
Just Energy Transition Partnerships: An inclusive climate finance approach?, Karg et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104103
‘Crafts are great, but not for me’: Reconnecting to the skilled trades crucial for building a low-carbon implementation workforce in academised societies, Aichinger et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104120
Climate change mitigation public policy research
Accelerating land use carbon emissions in shrinking counties: a systematic analysis of land use dynamics in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, 2000–2020, Zhang et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1529622
Climate policymaking in crisis: the impact of declining oil prices, COVID-19, and the Ukraine war in Canada, Harrison & Leach, Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2025.2503687
Closing the implementation gap in urban climate policy: Mexico’s public transit buildup, Goedeking, Environmental Politics Open Access 10.1080/09644016.2025.2500188
Designing citizen renewable energy projects for women: Evidence from a choice experiment in Germany, Vogel et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104064
Exploring the challenges and potential of implementing community solar initiatives into Egypt’s urban subsidized low-income housing, Hamza et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104111
Framing of innovation in urban Australian municipal climate policy, Rodgerson et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104094
Just social-ecological tipping scales: A mid-range social theory of change in coal and carbon intensive regions, Lieu et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103000
Mainstream parties and climate policy development: what role for intra-party politics?, McDaniel, Environmental Politics Open Access 10.1080/09644016.2025.2500179
Passing the check: How overlapping climate policies shift the distribution of costs in California, Scott, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104119
Prioritisation of clean energy interventions in Sub-Saharan Africa: A geospatial multi-criteria decision support tool, Moner-Girona et al., Energy for Sustainable Development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101709
Solar panels on every rooftop? Photovoltaics boom in Poland and the role of the European Union funds, Tomczyk & ?apniewska, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104107
Technology-enabled carbon emissions regulations for achieving net zero carbon built environment: a comprehensive framework, Yoon & Arshid, Carbon Management Open Access 10.1080/17583004.2025.2499090
The cohort effect in solar energy and nuclear power: unveiling collective agency in energy transitions, Stankovi? & Bron, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104112
Towards an intersectional justice approach to carbon taxation: Energy poverty, vulnerable households, and revenue recycling in Ireland, Magnetti et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104116
Unlocking urban transportation carbon reduction potential: a dynamic evaluation of public transit adoption in response to carbon-centric policies, Peng et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1540620
What determines provincial carbon emission reduction performance in China? A study on co-movement effect based on QCA, Cheng et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.011
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Are climate change adaptation strategies interrelated? Evidence from Borana pastoral communities, southern Ethiopia, Feyissa et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1545422
Explaining the adaptation gap through consistency in adaptation planning, Reckien et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-025-02334-w
Meeting climate change challenges in coastal Bangladesh: A study of technology-based adaptations in water use in Satkhira District, Haque et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000460
Projecting climate migration in Bangladesh using agent based modeling and climate data, O’Neill et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1567481
Climate change impacts on human health
Advancing climate-resilient health: radiology’s role in mitigating climate-related health risks, Palm et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1581232
Assessing extreme heat risk perception: Awareness, worry, preparedness and social capital in Texas, Paul et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104072
Current and future distributions of main dermatitis-causing insects and risks of dermatitis across China, Wu et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02352-8
Heat-related rest-break recommendations for farmworkers in California based on wet-bulb globe temperature, Parajuli et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02327-9
Climate change & geopolitics
Climate Scenarios and the Documentary Mediation of National Security, Pringle, Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2025.2492265
Other
Neo-colonialism and leaving fossil fuels underground: a discourse analysis of the potential German-Senegalese gas partnership, van Vliet et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104121
The influence of climate change vulnerability on gender inequality: evidence from international comparisons, Li et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2025.2500609
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Advancing science, policy and action in tipping points research, Smith et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02335-9
Earth’s Energy Imbalance More Than Doubled in Recent Decades, Mauritsen et al., AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2024av001636
Institutionalizing politicized science, Moynihan & Herd , Science 10.1126/science.ady6128
Opening Editorial: The contested nature of climate change: Feminist and decolonial perspectives for transformative adaptation, Iniesta-Arandia & Ravera, Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104082
The Deer and the Tiger, the Forest and the Carbon, Schmitz, Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70198
US policies undermine climate change efforts, Shen et al., One Earth Open Access pdf 10.1016/j.oneear.2019.09.006
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
Unveiling ISO Dynamics and Market Trends for 2025, Ryan Luther, Enverus
Generous tax credits from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) and the EPA’s update to 40 CFR Part 60, which mandates additional coal retirements, have significantly boosted demand for renewable energy projects across the United States. The surge in investment and development has overwhelmed interconnection queues, with a record number of projects seeking grid connections. This has exceeded grid operators’ processing capacity, causing significant delays and project suspensions. Understanding project suspensions and success rates is critical, as these factors vary by ISO, technology type and project stage. Low success rates have prompted policy interventions like FERC Order 2023 to streamline interconnection queues, but delays and suspensions persist due to regulatory hurdles, permitting delays and supply chain disruptions. NYISO, SPP, PJM and ISONE have higher suspension rates later in the project lifecycle, with Interconnection Agreement suspension rates ranging from 46% to 79%, compared to around 20% in ERCOT, CAISO and MISO. Projects in these markets show minimal improvement in completion probability until reaching construction. Understanding these regional differences helps developers maximize investment potential by minimizing project delays and increasing the odds of making it through the queue.
The State of Renewable Energy Dashboard. Tracking the growth of clean energy technology in all 50 states, Neumann et al, Environment America Research and Policy Center
Renewables are on the rise across America. America produces more than three times as much power from solar, wind and geothermal sources as we did 10 years ago – enough to power more than 71.5 million homes. Key technologies such as electric vehicles and battery storage are also growing. The dashboard allows a viewer to track the growth of clean energy in a state and around the country.
The Fraud of Advanced Recycling, Davis Allen, Center for Climate Integrity
Big Oil and the plastics industry increasingly market “advanced recycling” as a solution to the plastic waste crisis. Yet the reality of chemical recycling is a far cry from the plastics industry’s promises. The author shows how, in response to growing public and governmental pressure, Big Oil and the plastics industry are now deceptively marketing “advanced” recycling to the public, even as chemical engineering experts, industry consultants, trade associations, and plastics producers themselves quietly acknowledge its many flaws.
Modernizing Southeast Grid Investments: How Enhanced Regional Transmission Planning Supports a Growing Economy, Hagerty et al, Carolinas Clean Energy Business Association, Clean Energy Buyers Association, and Southern Renewable Energy Association
Facing unprecedented load growth and increasing reliability risks, Southeast utilities need to invest in their regional transmission systems to improve reliability and reduce costs. There is projected to be a 4x increase in transmission costs over last 20 years; a 20 GW of load growth in the next 10 Years; 80 GW of new generation will be needed to serve new loads; and there will be an increasing severity and frequency of winter storms. Recent national studies find a significant need for new regional transmission across the Southeast. Yet, all recent Southeast transmission upgrades are based on utility-specific local transmission planning that has not considered the benefits of supplementing local upgrades with larger, more cost-effective regional and interregional transmission projects.
Impact of Demand Side Management in The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), Williams et al, Texas Association of Business and Southcentral Partnership for Energy Efficiency as a Resource
The authors highlight how expanded use of energy efficiency and demand response programs could provide a cost-effective way to meet Texas’ surging electricity demand while strengthening the reliability of the ERCOT grid. With electricity use rising rapidly due to population growth, industrial expansion, and a wave of new data center and bitcoin mining operations, the authors project that demand-side tools could deliver significant system benefits. For example, widespread adoption of heat pumps could reduce residential power bills by as much as 45%—or $424 per year—while demand response programs could save large industrial users up to $1.9 million annually
South Fork Wind Benthic Monitoring Program, INSPIRE Environmental
South Fork Wind (SFW) has a comprehensive benthic (seafloor) monitoring program that includes targeted visual studies that span pre-construction, construction, and post-construction time periods. These SFW benthic surveys have not detected demonstrable changes in the biological communities or benthic functions associated with a) soft sediments surrounding offshore wind structures, b) soft sediments along the export cable, or c) boulders relocated during seafloor preparation.
Economic Opportunities from PacifiCorp’s Clean Energy Investments in Utah and Wyoming, Ahern e tal, The Sierra Club
The authors assess impacts and tradeoffs from PacifiCorp’s future investment decisions in its electricity generation resource portfolio. The authors focus specifically on Utah and Wyoming, which are key components of PacifiCorp’s “East” region using an economic impact analysis of several viable resource portfolio options developed by PacifiCorp through its 2023 Integrated Resource Planning process. The analysis quantifies the beneficial impacts of potential clean energy investments, as well as the challenges associated with workforce transitions from existing coal resources as they are displaced.
Cumulative Climate Risks for Transition Minerals in Brazil, Maurício Angelo and Gabriela Sarmet, Mining Observatory
THe authors present information on the cumulative climate risks of mining in Brazil and warn that Pará —the host state for COP30 in 2025— is the most exposed to climate-related disasters. Mining activities, combined with worsening climate conditions, are increasing water insecurity, exposing communities to more extreme weather events, and escalating socio-environmental risks across key mining states, including Minas Gerais, Goiás, and Bahia, in addition to Pará. The findings underscore the paradox of hosting a global climate conference in a state where industrial extraction accelerates deforestation – directly altering the climatic balance of the region- and threatens the resilience of local communities and ecosystems.
Arctic Climate Change Update 2024: Key Trends and Impacts. Summary for Policy-makers, Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme
Between 1979 and 2023, the Arctic warmed three times faster than the global average. Arctic annual air temperatures have risen by 3°C since 1971. Arctic surface air temperatures are increasingly rising above the freezing point of 0°C. Precipitation in the Arctic increased by 2–10 percent between 1979 and 2023; with most of the increase coming in the form of rain at the expense of snow. The surface area with daily precipitation in the Arctic has also increased, hence precipitation has become both more intense and widespread. Satellite observations of extreme wildfires around the world from 2003–2023 show that the largest regional increase was in the Eurasian Arctic, where the number of extreme wildfires increased by more than a factor of four. Ice losses from Arctic glaciers accounted for most of the world’s land-ice loss from 1979–2023, making the Arctic the largest regional source of global sea-level rise. From 1992–2020, the rate of land-ice loss from Greenland was nearly twice that of Antarctica, with an averaged
State of the Climate in Africa 2024, Mutemi et al, World Meteorological Organization
2024 ranked as one of the warmest years on record for Africa, with unprecedented sea-surface temperatures and widespread marine heatwaves. The authors outline severe challenges for agriculture, food and water security, health, and education—while also highlighting emerging opportunities through AI, mobile tools, and advanced weather models. It calls for urgent investment in infrastructure, data sharing, and inclusive services to strengthen early warning systems and climate resilience.
Inventory of U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks 1990-2023, Environmental Protection Agency
Overall, gross CO2 emissions have decreased by 4.2 percent since 1990 and decreased by 2.7 percent since 2022, consistent with trends in fuel combustion emissions. In the United States, fossil fuel combustion accounted for 92.7 percent of gross CO2 emissions in 2023. Nationally, within fossil fuel combustion, the transportation sector was the largest emitter of CO2 in 2023, followed by electric power generation. The decrease in coal use and associated emissions from 2022 to 2023 is mainly due to reduced use in the electric power sector and is driving the overall reduction. The increase in natural gas consumption and associated emissions in 2023 is observed mostly in the electric power and industrial sectors, the increase in petroleum use is mainly in the transportation sector, Note: Th EPA did not publish this report on its web site as presented in the report. The Environmental Defense Fund filed a Freedom of Information Act request for the report and published it publicly last week.
Beyond the Haze: A UC Dust Report on the Causes, Impacts, and Future of Dust Storms in California, Evan et al, University of California
The authors present a comprehensive summary of the current state of knowledge of dust storms in California, including where dust storms occur, the features contributing to their geographic distribution, factors driving historical and likely future changes in dust, the impact dust storms have on human health, the economy, and environment of the state, and an assessment of what is needed to mitigate or adapt to those impacts. The purpose of this report is to be a resource to the public, community-based organizations, state agencies, and policy makers on dust storms in California. The information here is intended to help guide future adaptation and mitigation efforts and identify critical gaps in understanding that impede those efforts.
After the Wildfire Guide for Arizona, The Southwest Fire Science Consortium
The guide was created as a resource for Arizona individuals and communities to help in the aftermath of a wildfire and post-fire flooding.
The 2025 Global Report on Internal Displacement (GRID), Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre
The authors provide information saying that the number of internally displaced people worldwide has reached a new high of 83.4 million, more than double compared to just six years ago. Conflict, violence, and weather-related events, many intensified by climate change, are driving record levels of displacement.
Synthesis Report on Ecosystem Status, Human Impacts and Management Measures in the Central Arctic Ocean (CAO-SR), Desiré-Tesar et al, Arctic Council’s Protection of the Arctic Marine Environment Working Group
Recognizing the importance of understanding the current and future state of the marine ecosystem in the Central Arctic Ocean, Arctic Council Ministers adopted the 2021 Arctic Council Strategic Plan that outlined the goal of, “Synthesizing relevant information on the status, trends and projected changes in the Central Arctic Ocean, human activities and pressures in the area, and the current management measures in place in order to inform future policy and decision making.” Led by the Arctic Council’s Protection of the Arctic Marine Environment (PAME) Working Group, the CAO-SR undertakes to respond to the above goal, with the express purpose of synthesizing existing information in order to inform future decisions around the Central Arctic Ocean.
Ways and Means Brings the Hammer Down on Energy Credits, King et al, Rhodium Group
The House Ways and Means Committee issued its proposed language for inclusion in Congress’s massive budget reconciliation package. It’s the opening attempt to reduce spending in order to partially cover the cost of nearly $5 trillion in proposed extensions and expansions of the tax cuts initially passed in 2017. While we are still analyzing the package, our preliminary analysis shows that the impact of the proposal is likely to be similar to the impact of a full repeal of the energy tax credits initially extended and expanded in 2022. This will raise energy costs for American households by as much as 7% in 2035, stifle energy technology innovation, increase pollution, and could put a meaningful portion of half a trillion dollars of new manufacturing, industrial, and clean electricity investments across the country at risk.
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