Skeptical Science New Research for Week #22 2025
Posted on 29 May 2025 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
A new indicator can assess absorption capacity for carbon dioxide and ocean acidification, Wang et al., Communications Earth & Environment:
The ocean has absorbed 25% of anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions over the past 40 years, effectively slowing atmospheric carbon dioxide growth but causing ocean acidification. As acidification intensifies, the seawater absorption capacity for carbon dioxide will decline. While the Revelle factor has been used to assess carbon dioxide absorption, it becomes inapplicable at pH < 7.5. Here, we propose a new factor, γCO2, to better measure the absorption capacity for carbon dioxide and acidification. γCO2 decreases with increased partial pressure of carbon dioxide and decreased pH, indicating reduced absorption capacity and intensified acidification. In 2020, global surface ocean γCO2 was 15.50 ± 0.21, a 13% decline since 1992. Projections under SSP5-8.5 anticipate an average γCO2 of 4.72 by 2100, with 61.5% of global ocean regions below the critical threshold of γCO2 = 3.0, potentially harming aragonite-based organisms.
21st Century Sea Ice Loss Will Upend 11,700 Years of Stable Habitat for Bowhead Whales, Freymueller et al., Ecology and Evolution:
Bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus) are strongly associated with Arctic sea ice during their crucial summer feeding period. However, anthropogenic climate change is causing a decline in sea ice concentrations, threatening bowhead whale suitable habitat. To characterise the long-term affinity of bowhead whales to sea ice across the Holocene and project the response of populations to 21st century climate change, we built ecological models of occurrence–environmental relationships using distribution-wide fossil, historical, and contemporary records. We found that throughout the Holocene, bowhead whale habitat suitability was consistently highest in summer average sea ice concentrations of 15%–30%. Projecting these models forward in time to 2100 ce showed that 21st century climate change is set to erode these critical sea ice conditions, resulting in the circumpolar range of bowhead whales contracting by up to 75%. We project that during this century, habitat suitability will decline in all four management populations of bowhead whales by at least 52%, with suitable habitat predicted to vanish completely in the Sea of Okhotsk. It is likely that most viable habitat for bowhead whales will exist outside their current distribution by the end of the century, directly impacting conservation policies. Our results further highlight the vulnerability of Arctic marine endemics in a warming world, showcasing how knowledge of the past can strengthen predictions of species future vulnerability to rapid ocean warming.
Warming Stripes Spark Climate Conversations: From the Ocean to the Stratosphere, Hawkins et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society:
The “warming stripes” are an iconic climate data visualization, adopted globally as a symbol of our warming world. We discuss their origin and uses for communication, including understanding long-term changes in the climate and consequences of future emission choices. We also extend the stripes concept to explore observed temperature variations throughout the climate system, revealing coherent warming for the troposphere and upper ocean and cooling in the stratosphere, consistent with our understanding of human influences on our climate.
Climate-Driven Body Size Changes in Birds and Mammals Reveal Environmental Tolerance Limits, Watson & Kerr, Global Change Biology:
Using 119,183 bird and 183,087 mammal body mass, and 15,562 bird and 239,600 mammal body length records, along with species’ thermal and aridity limits based on their range geographies, we tested for associations between body size and climatic conditions. We also assessed the impacts of human land use extent and interactions with species thermal environments. We found that smaller body mass measurements across taxa are associated with conditions closer to species’ upper thermal (hot) and lower aridity (dry) tolerance limits. Agricultural land use extent was found to be positively associated with body mass measurements for both bird and mammal species. Shorter body lengths were observed for both birds and mammals the closer species were to their upper thermal limits. Further we found that thermal and aridity conditions interacted resulting in stronger negative associations between body mass and hotter temperatures the closer species were to their dry tolerance limits. Our results are consistent with predictions that differences in body size within bird and mammal species are driven by thermoregulatory pressures associated with thermal and aridity regimes. While species’ range geographies and phenology are widely known to respond to anthropogenic climate change, the shifts in species’ body sizes detected here are a third biotic response that exerts similarly profound ecological, evolutionary, and conservation effects.
Declining Freshwater Availability in the Colorado River Basin Threatens Sustainability of Its Critical Groundwater Supplies, Abdelmohsen et al., Geophysical Research Letters:
The Colorado River Basin (CRB) is experiencing persistent aridification due to a complex interplay of natural and anthropogenic activities, resulting in significant groundwater depletion across the region. We used over two decades of NASA GRACE and GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO) observations (April 2002–October 2024), land surface models and observed data, to document pronounced groundwater depletion in the CRB. We estimate that the CRB lost 52.2 ± 4.0 km3 of terrestrial water storage over the study period, of which groundwater accounted for 65% (34.3 ± 9.2 km3). Of this, the Upper Basin lost 14.6 ± 3.5 km3 of terrestrial water storage (53% from groundwater, 7.8 ± 5.3 km3) while the Lower Basin lost 36.0 ± 6.2 km3 of terrestrial water storage (71% from groundwater, 25.5 ± 7.4 km3). Progress toward groundwater sustainability could be achieved by reducing annual extraction in line with the annual depletion rates presented here (0.35 km3/yr in Upper Basin and 1.15 km3/yr in the Lower Basin).
Large Decreases in Sea Ice Strength and Pressure Along Major Arctic Shipping Routes Projected for the Next Two Decades, Saenko et al., Geophysical Research Letters:
The observed decline of sea ice in the Arctic, if it persists into the future, can create more favorable conditions for shipping activity in the region. To estimate possible changes in key sea ice characteristics over the next two decades, we use high-resolution climate models. The focus is on two shipping routes: the Northwest Passage and the Northeast Passage. In addition to more traditionally analyzed ice concentration and thickness, we present projected changes in ice strength and pressure, which are especially relevant for shipping hazards. Along both routes, the mean September values of ice strength and pressure, projected for the period 2041–2050, decrease by an order of magnitude relative to the period 2015–2024. The decrease is largely driven by changes in ice concentration, rather than thickness or velocity. Increasing ocean resolution from eddy-present to eddy-rich leads to less reduction of sea ice area, volume and strength with global warming.
From this week’s government/NGO section:
Climate Impacts in India: Experience, Worry, and Attribution to Global Warming, Verner et al., Yale Program on Climate Change Communication
As the climate warms, extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and severe across India. Indians have recently experienced extreme heat waves, floods, water shortages, and irregular monsoon patterns. These events not only harm lives and livelihoods, but also shape how people perceive both climate change and extreme weather. To better understand public experiences and worries about these events, the authors surveyed 10,751 people in India from December 5, 2024, to February 18, 2025. Most respondents said they had personally experienced at least one extreme weather event or related impact in the past 12 months. Majorities of Indians said they had experienced severe heat waves (71%), agricultural pests and diseases (60%), power outages (59%), water pollution (53%), droughts and water shortages (52%), and severe air pollution (52%).
Policy Evaluation and Selection to Accelerate Geological Carbon Dioxide Removal Deployment, CO2 RE, The Greenhouse Gas Removal Hub, United Kingdom Research and Innovation SPF Greenhouse Gas Removal Demonstrators Programme
Geological carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is essential to achieving the United Kingdom’s (UK) net zero targets, but it will not scale without sustained and carefully targeted policy intervention. While the UK and many other countries have made a strong start by supporting deployment of comparatively mature technologies like bioenergy with carbon capture and storage and direct air carbon capture and sequestration, innovation across CDR techniques remains in flux and this focus risks sidelining other promising geological CDR approaches. To avoid locking the industry into a narrow set of technologies, the UK government must expand support to a wider portfolio, including earlier-stage options like enhanced rock weathering and biochar. These approaches are less developed, but hold significant long-term potential. Without targeted public investment—grants, subsidies, or tax incentives—they won’t reach the necessary scale in time.
108 articles in 53 journals by 867 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Evaluating the Response of the Labrador Sea to Greenland Meltwater Influx With High-Resolution Eddy-Rich NEMO Simulations, Hoshyar et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2024jc022102
Influence of atmospheric blocking on solar radiation and maximum temperature in Poland during summer (1971–2023), Bartoszek & Matuszko, Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108242
Response of an Arctic Mixed-Phase Cloud to Ice-Nucleating Particle Perturbations and Warming, Schäfer et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl114467
Robustness and Mechanisms of the Atmospheric Response Over the Southern Ocean to Idealized Freshwater Input Around Antarctica, Xu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl113734
Spatial Variability of the Response of Land-Atmosphere Coupling to Climate Warming in Northern China, Zhang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2024jd041899
Observations of climate change, effects
Assessing Summer Humid Heat in Europe: Trends, Extremes, and Drivers, Milrad & Ennis, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8913
Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Trends in Canada and Regions of the United States North of 40°N 1999–2023, Burrows et al., Atmosphere Open Access 10.1080/07055900.2025.2500648
Declining Freshwater Availability in the Colorado River Basin Threatens Sustainability of Its Critical Groundwater Supplies, Abdelmohsen et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl115593
Extended Gap Between Snowmelt and Greenup Increases Dust Storm Occurrences, Yang et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70236
Quantifying Time-Dependent Climate and Ecosystem Relationships in the California Current System, Feddern et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl113431
Recently Intensified Tropical-Extratropical Linkage Modulated by Arctic Sea Ice Loss, Zhang & Wu, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl114436
Spatial Variability of Marine Heatwaves in the Chesapeake Bay, Wegener et al., Estuaries and Coasts Open Access 10.1007/s12237-025-01546-9
Spatiotemporal correlations and driving factors of multiple drought in Central Asia, Sun et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108199
Thirty-One Years of Warming and Oxygen Decline in Massachusetts Bay, a Well-Flushed Non-Eutrophic Temperate Coastal Waterbody, Codiga et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2024jc021589
Threatening dynamics of landslide disaster risk in Himalaya region due to adverse climatic and anthropogenic changes: geospatial approach, Belho et al., Natural Hazards 10.1007/s11069-025-07346-5
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Transient Antarctic Slope Current Response to Climate Change Including Meltwater, Ong et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl113983
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
Advancements in Extreme Precipitation Projections for South Asia: A Comparative Evaluation of CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models, Kamruzzaman et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8915
An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024
Assessing the Performance of Regional Climate Model Wind Speeds Over Canada, Morris & Diaconescu, International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.8912
Emergent constraints for uncertainty reduction in climate projections, Varotsos et al., Journal of Atmospheric and Solar 10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106556
Evaluating the impact of climate change on hurricane wind risk: A machine learning approach, Lin & Cha, Risk Analysis Open Access 10.1111/risa.70042
Multifractality of climate networks, Thomas et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-egu23-841
SURFER v3.0: a fast model with ice sheet tipping points and carbon cycle feedbacks for short- and long-term climate scenarios, Couplet et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2024-2279
Cryosphere & climate change
Large Decreases in Sea Ice Strength and Pressure Along Major Arctic Shipping Routes Projected for the Next Two Decades, Saenko et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl114831
Permafrost Degradation and Concomitant Hydrological Changes Dominated by Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau, Fang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl113679
Snow droughts over 1951–2021 show a decreasing and then increasing trend, Ari et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108237
Tracing ice loss from the Late Holocene to the future in eastern Nuussuaq, central western Greenland, Bonsoms et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-19-1973-2025
Variations in Greenland surface melt and extreme events from 1958 to 2023, ZHANG et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.05.004
Sea level & climate change
Extrapolation of the Satellite Altimeter Record to Understand Regional Variations in Future Sea Level Change, Bellas?Manley et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2024jc022094
Sediment accumulation by coastal biogenic structures sustains intertidal flats facing sea level rise in the German Wadden sea, Hoffmann et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-025-03326-8
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Limited long-term cooling effects of Pangaean flood basalt weathering, Longman et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-59480-0
Sustainability insights from Late Pleistocene climate change and horse migration patterns, Running Horse Collin et al., Science 10.1126/science.adr2355
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
21st Century Sea Ice Loss Will Upend 11,700 Years of Stable Habitat for Bowhead Whales, Freymueller et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.71377
A decade of lost growth in old trees: aging shapes the impacts of drought and late frost events on European beech, Rubio-Cuadrado et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110601
A Large Fraction of Soil Microbial Taxa Is Sensitive to Experimental Warming, Sáez?Sandino et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70231
Achieving the Global Biodiversity Framework Under Climate Change, Archer et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70249
Age-dependent moisture response of conifers near their cold range limit, Tumajer et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110634
Bumble Bee Probability of Occurrence Responds to Interactions Between Local and Landscape Land Use, Climatic Niche Properties and Climate Change, Newbold et al., Ecology Letters Open Access 10.1111/ele.70145
Climate-Driven Body Size Changes in Birds and Mammals Reveal Environmental Tolerance Limits, Watson & Kerr, Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70241
Diel-cycling hypoxia and hypercapnia interact with the physiological and redox response of the bivalve Mytilus edulis to heat-wave, Dereuder et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107241
Effect of climate on traits of dominant and rare tree species in the world’s forests, Hordijk et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-59754-7
Evolving dynamics of lagoons in a megacity: Insights on climate and urbanization over four decades, Omosanya et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102439
Forecasting range shifts of dioecious plants under climate change, Moutouama et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2422162122
Habitat Suitability of Ziziphus spina-christi and Ziziphus nummularia in a Changing Climate in the Khalijo-Omanian Zone, Iran, Behzadi et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.71406
Lianas reduce tree height with negative consequences for carbon storage and growth estimates, Cao et al., Journal of Ecology 10.1111/1365-2745.70050
Monitoring the Growth and Habitat Shifts of Epiphyllous Liverworts in Subtropical Forests of China, Dai et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.71442
Rodent Seed Dispersal Syndromes Follow a Downslope Trajectory, Counteracting the Climate Change-Mediated Tree Line Elevational Shift Upwards, Han et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.71388
Setting the limit: cold rather than hot temperatures limit intertidal distribution of a coastal foundation species, Wasson et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107149
Subsurface marine heat waves and coral bleaching in the southern red sea linked to remote forcing, Nadimpalli et al., Weather and Climate Extremes 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100771
Temperature-dependent photosynthesis and antioxidant system in the marine diatom Phaeodactylum tricornutum, Zhong et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107217
The silent signals of climate change, Feehan & Filbee-Dexter, Science 10.1126/science.adx8707
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
A new indicator can assess absorption capacity for carbon dioxide and ocean acidification, Wang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02380-4
Biogeochemical functioning of Lake Alaotra (Madagascar): a reset of aquatic carbon sources along the land–ocean aquatic continuum, Razanamahandry et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-22-2403-2025
Carbon Emissions From Fires in Eastern Siberian Larch Forests, Delcourt et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70247
Contributors to the carbon emissions of metropolises at different development levels, Jiang et al., Energy for Sustainable Development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101736
Editorial: Climate change and soil microbial control of carbon sequestration, Dou & Yang, Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1619408
Methane Emissions and Dynamics in the Weddell and Scotia Seas, Workman et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access 10.1029/2024gb008425
Simulation and assessment of the risk of carbon sink loss in Hubei Province, China, Li et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1573145
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
The drowned soil: effects of an Icelandic hydropower reservoir on the soil carbon resource after 24 years of flooding, Möckel et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1570358
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
A scalable, annual aboveground biomass product for monitoring carbon impacts of ecosystem restoration projects, Atzberger et al., Remote Sensing of Environment Open Access 10.1016/j.rse.2025.114774
Applying multi-criteria decision analysis in the assessment of carbon dioxide removal technologies for Saudi Arabia, Odeh et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114698
Insights from dynamics, mechanisms, factors and mitigation strategies of salt precipitation for CO2 geo-storage within saline aquifer, Wang et al., Earth 10.1016/j.earscirev.2025.105170
More concerns about atmospheric methane removal efforts, Luczak, Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1574595
Decarbonization
Understanding policy windows for solar energy lifecycle extension: Policymaker perspectives in developing Asia, Kweon et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104130
Uneven renewable energy supply constrains the decarbonization effects of excessively deployed hydrogen-based DRI technology, Wang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-59730-1
Geoengineering climate
A Framework for Minimizing Remote Effects of Regional Climate Interventions: Cooling the Great Barrier Reef Without Teleconnections, Krantz et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl113191
Aerosols
Penguin guano is an important source of climate-relevant aerosol particles in Antarctica, Boyer et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02312-2
Climate change communications & cognition
Climate change education in the new landscape of climate literacy, Boyd et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000623
Let’s talk about climate change: How immersive media experiences stimulate climate conversations, Meijers et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102610
Not really concerned? Populist radical right voters and climate change, Crulli & Zulianello, Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2025.2506344
Warming Stripes Spark Climate Conversations: From the Ocean to the Stratosphere, Hawkins et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-24-0212.1
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Broken links: How rural forest landowners in the southeastern United States contemplate forests, climate change, and bioenergy, Hitchner et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104151
Historical trends and future projections of compound cloudy-rainy events during the global winter wheat harvest phase, Gao et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110637
Maintaining crop yields limits mitigation potential of crop-land natural climate solutions, , Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02349-3
Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024
Omitting labor responses underestimates the effects of future heat stress on agriculture, Sheng et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02318-w
The determinants of greenhouse gas reduction levels among smallholder farmers: insights from the adoption of climate-smart dairy strategies in Central Kenya, Chelang’a et al., Open Access 10.21203/rs.3.rs-5923454/v1
Uneven impacts of climate change around the world and across the annual cycle of winegrapes, Wolkovich et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000539
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Design flood projections for ungauged catchments using updated unit hydrographs under climate change scenarios, Goel & Srinivas, Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment 10.1007/s00477-025-02994-2
Divergent responses of historic rain-on-snow flood extremes to a warmer climate, Hao et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02354-6
Flood projections over the White Volta Basin under the shared socioeconomic pathways: an analytical hierarchical approach, Kabo-Bah et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1564665
Future Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Precipitation: Exposure Risks for Urban Populations and Cropland in North China, Yu et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8902
Groundwater Level Projections for Aquifers Affected by Annual to Decadal Hydroclimate Variations: Example of Northern France, Chidepudi et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005251
Human mobility amplifies compound flood risks in coastal urban areas under climate change, Long & Duan, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02406-x
Investigation and future projections of warm rain during the winter monsoon in the Western Java Sea, Indonesia, Harjupa & Nakakita, Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1581382
Permafrost Degradation and Concomitant Hydrological Changes Dominated by Anthropogenic Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Northeastern Tibetan Plateau, Fang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl113679
Spatiotemporal correlations and driving factors of multiple drought in Central Asia, Sun et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108199
Climate change economics
Rising military spending jeopardizes climate targets, Dong et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-59877-x
Climate change mitigation public policy research
Governance challenges of renewable energy development in fossil fuel dependent countries with a focus on Iran, Pasandideh & Ezaan, Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101759
Model-based Climate Action Plans for ambitious local emissions reduction: A project-focused approach, Lonergan et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102452
Net-zero Turkey: Renewable energy potential and implementation challenges, Gulaydin & Mourshed, Energy for Sustainable Development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101744
Science-policy: UNFCCC policymakers’ perspective of scientific scenarios and their policy relevance, Pedersen et al., npj Climate Action Open Access 10.1038/s44168-025-00250-5
The political economy of supply-side climate policy in the UK, Newell & Daley, Environmental Politics Open Access 10.1080/09644016.2025.2508567
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Bridging climate science, policy, and communities: collaborative pathways for climate resilience in the Indo-Pacific, Modi et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1538123
Coping with future climate change positively-adaptation policies and actions in China, Li et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access 10.1002/cli2.60
Factors contributing to climate adaptation lag in practice: Insights from local and territorial government interactions, Birchall et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104097
Rethinking network regulation for climate resilience in Australia’s energy transition, Mummery, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114674
Climate change impacts on human health
Gaps in public perceptions of extreme heat highlight UK’s lack of preparedness, Howarth et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104101
Healthcare resource use and costs associated with extreme heat in Alberta, Canada, Tran & Warkentin, Discover Health Systems Open Access 10.1007/s44250-025-00238-2
Climate change & geopolitics
Norwegian state-corporate climate obstruction and ecological harms in Brazil, Palazzo & Hendlin, Climate and Development Open Access 10.1080/17565529.2025.2502479
Other
Recurrent Synoptic Waves Instigated Severe Marine Heatwave in the Southwest Pacific, Chen et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2024jd043232
The governmental origins of American innovation in clean technologies, Wittstock, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114693
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Achieving the Global Biodiversity Framework Under Climate Change, Archer et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70249
Editorial: Inclusion in climate-related disaster studies, Trejo-Rangel et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1623663
Editorial: Risk assessment and resilience of extreme weather-induced disasters, Sang et al., Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access 10.3389/feart.2025.1623074
Scientific conferences are leaving the US amid border fears, Naddaf, Nature 10.1038/d41586-025-01636-5
Ten principles for transforming economics in a time of global crises, Kenter et al., Nature Sustainability Open Access 10.1038/s41893-025-01562-4
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
Insurance and Risk Management Tools for Agriculture in the EU, González Peláez et al., The European Union and the European Investment Bank
Climate related risks are a significant source of uncertainty for agricultural production, farm resilience, and the broader bioeconomy value chain. There is growing evidence that climate change is increasing both the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, leading to greater agricultural yield volatility in the future, and resulting destabilizing of farm incomes. The authors examine the forms of support currently in place for agriculture insurance schemes and other climate adaptation de-risking schemes across EU Member States, providing recommendations on how to improve access to finance and mitigate climate risks.
Rewiring Finance – a New Approach to Financing a Sustainable Economy, Nina Seega and Eliot Whittington, Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership
The authors propose three critical shifts that are required to deliver a transformation to a sustainable economy including shifting industrial and financial policy to provide a framework that clearly sets out transition pathways and incentivizes the financial system to deliver the transition; shift narratives and mindsets away from compliance and incrementalism, and towards value, competition and transformation to move market sentiment about the viability of ‘finance as usual’ and the need for a systemic shift; and shift core financial structures to embed sustainability into models that drive financial behavior will price in financial materiality of climate change, biodiversity loss and inequalities, create standardized structures to solve the risk and scale problems, and improve the flow of finance towards the sustainable transition of emerging markets and developing economies.
Climate Impacts in India: Experience, Worry, and Attribution to Global Warming, Verner et al., Yale Program on Climate Change Communication
As the climate warms, extreme weather events are becoming more frequent and severe across India. Indians have recently experienced extreme heat waves, floods, water shortages, and irregular monsoon patterns. These events not only harm lives and livelihoods, but also shape how people perceive both climate change and extreme weather. To better understand public experiences and worries about these events, the authors surveyed 10,751 people in India from December 5, 2024, to February 18, 2025. Most respondents said they had personally experienced at least one extreme weather event or related impact in the past 12 months. Majorities of Indians said they had experienced severe heat waves (71%), agricultural pests and diseases (60%), power outages (59%), water pollution (53%), droughts and water shortages (52%), and severe air pollution (52%).
Renewables point the way to Mexico’s energy security, Wilmar Suárez, Ember
The author analyses the dependence of electricity generation in Mexico on imported gas from the United States and estimates the costs that would be avoided by reducing gas imports under scenarios of 36% and 45% of clean energy generation by 2030, aligned with the National Strategy of the Power Sector. The avoided cost estimate is based on projections made by Ember for the price of natural gas.
Enhanced Geothermal Systems Electric-Resource Assessment for the Great Basin, Southwestern United States, Burns et al., US. Geological Survey
The authors conducted a provisional assessment of the geothermal-electric resources associated with high-temperature, low-permeability rock formations of the Great Basin, Southwestern United States. If sufficient technological advances to commercialize enhanced geothermal systems occur, then a current best provisional estimate for electric-power generation capacity of 135 gigawatts electric are available from the upper 6 kilometers of the Earth’s crust. This estimate is a potential substantial increase of the installed geothermal electricity-generating capacity from
Performance of IBHS FORTIFIED Home Construction in Hurricane Sally, Alabama Department of Insurance and the Center for Risk and Insurance Research, University of Alabama
Coastal property insurance has presented a challenge along the gulf coast since the active hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005. Following a series of concerted efforts to address the problems of availability and affordability, Alabama chose to address the root cause of insurance market dislocations by promoting and funding the Insurance Institute for Business and Home Safety (IBHS) FORTIFIED Home (Fortified) program. Fortified prescribes a system of building features that mitigate hurricane wind and wind-driven-water damage in incremental levels of Fortified Roof, Fortified Silver, and Fortified Gold. The authors present evidence of the performance of IBHS Fortified Home construction in Hurricane Sally. Sally made landfall on Gulf Shores, Alabama, in September of 2020 as a strong Category 2 storm with top wind speeds of 105 knots. The analysis of the performance of Fortified construction during Hurricane Sally provides compelling evidence of its effectiveness in reducing losses for both policyholders and insurance companies. The findings demonstrate that homes built to the Fortified Roof and Fortified Gold standards experienced significantly lower claim frequency, claim severity, and loss ratios compared to conventional homes. The most robust measure of Fortified performance—excluding tree-fall claims and using the nearest neighbor method—reveals that Fortified Roof houses reduced claim frequency by 73%, claim severity by 15%, and loss ratios by 72%. Fortified Gold houses performed even better, showing a 76% reduction in claim frequency, a 24% reduction in claim severity, and a 67% reduction in loss ratios. These reductions translate into substantial financial savings: had all conventional homes been retrofitted to Fortified Roof or built to Fortified Gold standards, policyholders could have saved up to 65% on losses below their deductibles, while insurers could have reduced their losses by up to 75%./
Northern Ireland Life and Times Survey 2024, School of Social Sciences, Education and Social Work, Queen’s University Belfast
The Northern Ireland Life and Times (NILT) survey was launched in the autumn of 1998. Its mission is to monitor the attitudes and behavior of people in Northern Ireland annually to provide a time-series and a public record of how our attitudes and behavior develop on a wide range of social policy issues including climate change. The survey explores a range of topics, with some topics repeated every year (for example, Community/Good Relations) and others varying from year to year. In general, the questions are designed to be repeated in years to come. The survey aims to provide a local resource for use by the general public; trusted and independent evidence to inform policy making; and, a data source for a more theoretical academic debate. In 2024, seven climate change related questions were asked. For example, do you think climate change is caused by natural processes, human activity or both? 60 percent of the respondents thought it was mainly or entirely related to human activity. 83 percent of the respondents either strongly agreed or tended to agree with the statement, there should be more international cooperation between states to address climate change.
Strategic decarbonisation of the Canadian iron and steel industry: A worker-centered path to cut emissions, increase value added and strengthen global supply chains, Jonas Algers and Chris Bataille,, Lund University
The authors analyze Canada’s potential to transition to a low-emission iron and steel industry. Five factors stand out as key enablers of an ambitious Canadian steel transition including rich iron ore resources; large potential for wind expansion near iron ore resources; strong power and transport infrastructure; a highly skilled workforce; and broad political backing for net-zero emissions by 2050.
Road to 2050: Climate Action and Resilience Plan, Nutter et al., Village of Riverside, Illinois
The authors provide a roadmap for Riverside to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, protect its’ natural assets, and ensure a high quality of life for current and future generations of its’ residents. For example, the Village plans to reduce its’ greenhouse gas emissions by 65% by 2040 and 80% by 2050 from a 2022 baseline. To assist in reducing emissions, the Village will continue to research and implement innovative technologies across its various emission sources. Additional efforts will focus on local opportunities to sequester carbon through the preservation and expansion of green spaces and healthy ecosystems.
Policy Evaluation and Selection to Accelerate Geological Carbon Dioxide Removal Deployment, CO2 RE, The Greenhouse Gas Removal Hub, United Kingdom Research and Innovation SPF Greenhouse Gas Removal Demonstrators Programme
Geological carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is essential to achieving the United Kingdom’s (UK) net zero targets, but it will not scale without sustained and carefully targeted policy intervention. While the UK and many other countries have made a strong start by supporting deployment of comparatively mature technologies like bioenergy with carbon capture and storage and direct air carbon capture and sequestration, innovation across CDR techniques remains in flux and this focus risks sidelining other promising geological CDR approaches. To avoid locking the industry into a narrow set of technologies, the UK government must expand support to a wider portfolio, including earlier-stage options like enhanced rock weathering and biochar. These approaches are less developed, but hold significant long-term potential. Without targeted public investment—grants, subsidies, or tax incentives—they won’t reach the necessary scale in time.
Annual Report 2024, Carbon Market Watch
Carbon Market Watch exists to ensure that carbon pricing and other climate policies drive a just transition towards zero-carbon societies. Media Coverage included information used in 106 countries, 35 languages, 3.5k articles mentions, over 6.5 million people reached in outlets with a combined reach of 10.5 billion. Over 520k web views of 79 articles and 56 publications. The Human Stories project cast a spotlight on how the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) affects people by telling the stories of individuals involved in the green transition. CMW’s team travelled to Portugal, Greece and Belgium to discover more about how the revenues from the EU ETS can be put to good use, improving peoples’ lives and empowering the green transition. The result was a series of documentaries, photographs and articles. Occidental Petroleum (Oxy) is an American fossil fuel company that has been investing heavily in unproven carbon removal technologies to camouflage its emissions and those of its customers and provide itself with a fig leaf behind which it can expand its oil and gas production. This was the conclusion of CMW’s investigation into Oxy’s climate strategy. The in-depth analysis revealed that not only does Oxy’s net-zero strategy conflict with the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C, it also underplays the significance of indirect emissions and focuses far too much on the experimental and unproven technology, direct air capture (DAC).
Unlocking negawatts: The role of lighting in energy security and decarbonization, Signify and Climate Group
By 2050, we can expect a 34% increase in global energy consumption which our society will struggle to meet. Unless proactive measures are taken to manage this demand responsibly, the strain on our planet’s energy resources will only intensify. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), in 2022 emissions from lighting alone accounted for over 2% of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This is equivalent to the emissions produced by the aviation industry, underscoring the significant cumulative impact of lighting globally. If all homes, businesses and cities worldwide switched entirely to energy-efficient LED lighting, these emissions could be cut in half, and over €600 billion per year could be saved in electricity costs. This is equivalent to nearly one-quarter of the annual cost of the green energy transition, which is estimated at $3 billion, according to the Institute for Energy Research. Additionally, 1,402 TWh of electricity could be freed up, which is roughly equivalent to the annual electricity consumption of India. This shift represents not only an achievable goal, but also low-hanging fruit in our efforts towards a resilient, energy secure future.
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