Skeptical Science New Research for Week #23 2025
Posted on 5 June 2025 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Land-based sensors reveal high frequency of coastal flooding, Hino et al., Communications Earth & Environment:
Coastal flooding is occurring more frequently due to global sea-level rise, among other factors. However, current understanding of coastal flood frequency and sea-level rise impacts is predominantly based on tide gauges, which do not measure water levels on land. Here, we present data from a novel network of land-based flood sensors in the state of North Carolina, USA. We demonstrate that tide-gauge data are poor indicators of flooding: floods occur 26–128 days annually, an order of magnitude greater than what regional tide gauges suggest in some places. Improving the accuracy of coastal flood measures is critical for identifying the impacts of sea-level rise and developing effective adaptation strategies.
This material is based upon work supported by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security under Grant Award Number 2015-ST-061-ND0001-01… North Carolina Sea Grant (Institution Grant NA22OAR4170109)… National Science Foundation’s Human-Environment and Geographical Systems Program (#BCS-2215195… NOAA’s Climate Adaptation Partnerships program and the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law (#NA23OAR4310474)… the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (#80NSSC24K0504).
Antarctic Ice Sheet tipping in the last 800,000 years warns of future ice loss, Chandler et al., Communications Earth & Environment:
Ice loss from Antarctica’s vast freshwater reservoir could threaten coastal communities and the global economy if the ice volume decreases by just a few percent. Observed changes in mass balance are limited to ~40 years, and are difficult to interpret in the context of an ice sheet with response time scales reaching centuries to millennia. To gain a much longer-term perspective, here we combine transient and equilibrium Parallel Ice Sheet Model simulations of Antarctic Ice Sheet response to glacial-interglacial warming and cooling cycles over the last 800,000 years. We find hysteresis that is caused by the long response time and by crossing of tipping points. Notably, West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse contributes over 4 m sea-level rise in equilibrium ice sheet states with little (0.25 °C) or even no ocean warming above present. Therefore, today we are likely already at (or almost at) an overshoot scenario, supporting recent studies warning of substantial irreversible ice loss with little or no further climate warming.
When boundaries are blurred: infrastructure needs in support of the climate displaced, Best et al., Frontiers in Climate:
Interactions between climate change and human displacement are complex, yet it is clear that climate change has and will continue to alter patterns of mobility. This is true for both trans-border displacement and internal displacement within country borders. Very little attention has been given to the infrastructure needed to support the climate displaced during their journey as well as in communities where they may pause or settle. In contrast to the climate displaced, reasons for refugee flight can range from deprivation, poverty, war, or disasters, and the statutory definition of refugee entitles them to the protection and assistance of the United Nations. This definition does not currently apply to those who move or are displaced because of climate change, though their displacement is no less perilous or traumatic than those protected under the UN Refugee Convention. Regardless of the legal status, engineers are largely absent from conversations about how to support and protect those undergoing displacement from climate change. In this paper, we draw on the general literature of forced displacement and the existing legal processes for refugees to explore the stages in climate-related displacement. We propose a framework for understanding the basic infrastructure needs during four phases: initiation, mobilization, pause and settle. We identify critical infrastructure to support the climate displaced for each of these phases, calling out those aspects of the displacement process in which greater understanding of how engineers can contribute to protection of human rights is needed.
Impacts of Breaching Planetary Boundaries on Human Health: Current and Future Threats, Kemarau et al., GeoHealth:
This review examines the impact of breaching planetary boundaries on human health and potential future threats, emphasizing the need for effective mitigation and adaptation strategies. Through a rigorous literature review of 142 high-quality articles, we explore the health implications of breaching planetary boundaries such as climate change, land system change, biodiversity loss, biogeochemical flows, aerosol loading, stratospheric ozone depletion, freshwater use, novel entities, and ocean acidification. Our findings indicate a direct association between breached planetary boundaries and a range of health risks, including respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, increased infectious disease vulnerability, and nutritional impacts due to compromised food sources. The analysis highlights the disproportionate effects on vulnerable populations and underscores the significance of localized and global strategies in mitigating these health threats. Effective measures, including urban planning for green spaces and pollution control, have been identified as crucial. The review calls for an integrated, interdisciplinary approach to safeguard human health against the backdrop of environmental degradation, stressing the urgency of global collaboration in policy development and implementation.
From this week’s government/NGO section:
Climate Change and the Escalation of Global Extreme Heat: Assessing and Addressing the Risks, Giguere et al., World Weather Attribution
The authors assessed the influence of human-caused climate change on dangerous heat waves over the past 12 months. They found that 4 billion people, about 49% of the global population, experienced at least 30 extra days of extreme heat (hotter than 90% of temperatures observed in their local area over the 1991-2020 period) that was made at least two times more likely due to human-caused climate change.
WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2025-2029), World Meteorological Organization
Global mean temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels in the five-year period 2025-2029. The annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 is predicted to be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C higher than the average over the years 1850-1900. It is likely (86% chance) that global mean near-surface temperature will exceed 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average levels for at least one year between 2025 and 2029. It is also likely (70% chance) that the 2025-2029 five-year mean will exceed 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average. It is likely (80% chance) that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be warmer than the warmest year on record (currently 2024) and although exceptionally unlikely, there is now also a chance (1%) of at least one year exceeding 2°C of warming in the next five years. Long-term warming (averaged over decades) remains below 1.5°C. The five-year average temperature in the Niño 3.4 region relative to the whole tropics indicates mixed or mainly neutral ENSO conditions in this period.
136 articles in 57 journals by 817 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Demystifying the drivers of the spring warming asymmetry between Eurasia and North America, Ding et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adu2364
Does It Matter to the Climate If Trade Cumulus Clouds Cluster?, McCoy, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl115570
Landfast ice in the Kara Sea stabilizes the Arctic halocline and may slow down Atlantification of the Eurasian Basin, Liu et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02360-8
Observational constraints imply limited future Atlantic meridional overturning circulation weakening, Bonan et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-025-01709-0
Possible coherency of synchronous warming of tropical oceans and the QBO amplitude variation, Zhu & Rao, Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108241
Weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation causes the historical North Atlantic Warming Hole, Li & Liu, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02403-0
Observations of climate change, effects
More Distinct Dry and Humid Heat in a Warming World, Coffel, Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005770
Record-breaking extremes in a warming climate, Fischer et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43017-025-00681-y
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
A decadal, hourly high-resolution satellite dataset of aerosol optical properties over East Asia, Lee et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2025-281
A traceable global warming record and clarity for the 1.5 °C and well-below-2 °C goals, Kirchengast & Pichler, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02368-0
Homogenization of Surface Wind Speed Over Global Land From 1973 to 2022, Zhang & Wang, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2024jd042939
On the Attribution of Weather Events to Climate Change Using Empirically Fit Extreme Value Distributions, Sherman et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-23-0542.1
Reconstructing Global Monthly Ocean Dissolved Oxygen (1960–2023) to Nearly 6000 m Depth Using Bayesian Ensemble Machine Learning, Han & Zhou, Open Access 10.5194/essd-2025-273
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Convection-permitting WRF simulation of extreme winds in Canada: Present and Future scenarios, Ma et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100777
Downscaled CMIP6 future climate projections for New Zealand: climatology and extremes, Gibson et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100784
Emergence of Winter Large-Scale Transient Atmospheric Waves in the Northern Hemisphere, Karbi & Chemke, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl113410
Multidecadal Temperature Variability in the Community Earth System Model Last Millennium Ensemble, Fernandez et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl113393
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024
Assessing the added value of convection-permitting modeling for urban climate research: A case study in eastern China, Pei et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.01.004
Climate Models Exaggerate the Enhanced Double-ITCZ in the Warming Tropical Pacific Due To Preexisting Precipitation Bias, Li & Fedorov, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl115445
Seasonal and Regional Antarctic Sea Ice Biases: A Closer Look at CMIP6, Schroeter, Atmosphere Open Access 10.1080/07055900.2025.2507880
Cryosphere & climate change
Current and Projected Changes in Lake Ice Phenology on the Tibetan Plateau: Impacts of Climate Change and Lake Expansion, Cai et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd043623
Glacier preservation doubled by limiting warming to 1.5°C versus 2.7°C, Zekollari et al., Science 10.1126/science.adu4675
Sea level & climate change
Land-based sensors reveal high frequency of coastal flooding, Hino et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02326-w
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Antarctic Ice Sheet tipping in the last 800,000 years warns of future ice loss, Chandler et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02366-2
Tempo of the Late Ordovician mass extinction controlled by the rate of climate change, Zhang et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adv6788
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
Adaptation of Marine Heterotrophic Protists to Long-Term Warming Selection, Pang et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70280
Advanced vegetation green-up onset in regions with cooling air temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere: Drivers and impacts on productivity, Jiang et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104891
Assessing how restoration can facilitate 30×30 goals for climate-resilient coastal ecosystems in the United States, Gittman et al., Conservation Biology 10.1111/cobi.14429
Assessing risk of ecosystem collapse in a changing climate, Rowland et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-025-02324-y
Assessing the elevational synchronization in vegetation phenology across Northern Hemisphere mountain ecosystems under global warming, Yang et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104903
Climate-induced permafrost degradation exerts species-specific impacts on pine and larch growth in the Da Xing’anling Mountains, Northeast China, Wang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110665
Contrasting Temperature Sensitivity of Boreal Forest Productivity in North America and Eurasia, Muccio et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2024jg008634
Flash drought impacts on global ecosystems amplified by extreme heat, Gu et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-025-01719-y
Future Environmental Scenarios Favor the Performance of Ulva lactuca – Implications for the Intensification of Green Tides, de Jesus Resende et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107262
Hatcheries to High Seas: Climate Change Connections to Salmon Marine Survival, Kitada et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.71504
Impact of climate-driven changes in temperature on stomatal anatomy and physiology, Hofmann et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rstb.2024.0244
Impact of ocean warming and food restriction on the fecundity of the sea star Asterias rubens, Le Bourg et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107240
Increased Light Availability in the Northern Barents Sea Driven by Sea Ice Loss, Sandven et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2025jc022370
Increasing Mosquito Abundance Under Global Warming, Nair et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005629
Measuring and modeling waterlogging tolerance to predict the future for threatened lowland ash forests, Gustafson et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-22-2499-2025
No widespread decline in canopy conductance under elevated atmospheric CO2, Wang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110649
On the Northward Expansion of Scallops (Pecten maximus) Along the Norwegian Coastline, Johnsen & Grefsrud Johnsen, Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.71460
Oxygen sensing and plant adaptation to flooding in a changing climate, Renziehausen et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rstb.2024.0238
Physiological response of Palaemon elegans to multi-anthropogenic stressors: assessing the impact of marine heatwaves and UV filters contained in sunscreens, Autiero et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107226
Quantifying exposure of amphibian species to heat waves, cold spells, and droughts, Twomey et al., Conservation Biology Open Access 10.1111/cobi.70074
Revealing the dual impacts of climate change and grazing on vegetation in Mongolia: Permafrost buffering and the paradox of greening, LA et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.05.005
Salinity and temperature influence on the early development of mysid Mesopodopsis slabberi in a temperate estuary: implications to climate change effect, Oliveira et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107239
Seasonal Variation of Phyllosphere Microbial Communities Under Warming, Lei et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70270
Soil microbial responses to multiple global change factors as assessed by metagenomics, Rodríguez del Río et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-60390-4
Temperature amplifies the effect of anthropogenic light on foraging common pipistrelle bats, Buddendorf et al., Biology Letters 10.1098/rsbl.2025.0049
The Biogeography of Soil Bacteria in Australia Exhibits Greater Resistance to Climate Change Than Fungi, Xue et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70268
Water temperature influences holothurian bioturbation and benthic habitat with special reference to the impact of ocean warming, Shan et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107260
What can go wrong for future Senegalese sole recruitment? Temperature and food availability as important drivers of early-life-history traits, Sardi et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107201
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
Impact of anthropogenic emission inventories on atmospheric CO2 concentrations simulated by GEOS-Chem, Lu et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108255
Air pollution modulates trends and variability of the global methane budget, Zhao et al., Nature 10.1038/s41586-025-09004-z
Coastal Upwelling Enhances Winter Arctic Ocean Methane Emission, Li et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl113692
Contrasting Temperature Sensitivity of Boreal Forest Productivity in North America and Eurasia, Muccio et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2024jg008634
Declining coral calcification to enhance twenty-first-century ocean carbon uptake by gigatonnes, Kwiatkowski et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2501562122
Different impacts of temperature and precipitation on vegetation net primary production of global marsh wetlands, Zhang et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104893
Glacial retreat converts exposed landscapes from net carbon sinks to sources, Pain et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02404-z
Impacts of climate extremes on variations in evergreen forest ecosystem carbon–water fluxes across Southern China, Xing et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104867
Increasing soil respiration in a northern hardwood forest indicates symptoms of a changing carbon cycle, Possinger et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02405-y
Large live biomass carbon losses from droughts in the northern temperate ecosystems during 2016-2022, Li et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-59999-2
Remapping Carbon Storage Change in Retired Farmlands on the Loess Plateau in China from 2000 to 2021 in High Spatiotemporal Resolution, Guo et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2025-222
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
Spatiotemporal dynamics of terrestrial vegetation carbon sinks and its response to climate change in northwest China, Zhang et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1550501
Thermal acclimation of stem respiration implies a weaker carbon-climate feedback, Zhang et al., Science 10.1126/science.adr9978
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
A blueprint for national assessments of the blue carbon capacity of kelp forests applied to Canada’s coastline, McHenry et al., Open Access pdf 10.1101/2024.04.05.586816
Enabling gigatonne scale engineering based carbon capture solutions and novel chemical based CO2 sequestrations, Abdul-Manan, npj Clean Energy Open Access 10.1038/s44406-025-00004-6
Strategic mangrove restoration increases carbon stock capacity, Beselly et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02401-2
The Biomass Carbon Sequestration Potential in China’s Drylands, Tan et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006022
Decarbonization
A framework to evaluate dynamic social and ecological interactions between offshore wind energy development and commercial fisheries in a changing climate: A US West Coast perspective, Warlick et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000526
Employment differentiation for women and men in the off-grid solar energy sector in Côte d’Ivoire, Yeo, Energy for Sustainable Development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101750
Firewood, four wheelers, and chest freezers: The importance of modern energy to Alaska Native subsistence in Yedatene Na’, Carlson et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104081
How much upfront-embodied GHG emissions can wooden buildings save—displacement factors for wooden buildings, Amiri & Junnila, Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access 10.1088/2634-4505/addc16
Increased terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage associated with global utility-scale photovoltaic installation, Wang et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-025-01715-2
Mapping the cost competitiveness of African green hydrogen imports to Europe, Egli et al., Nature Energy Open Access 10.1038/s41560-025-01768-y
Aerosols
A decadal, hourly high-resolution satellite dataset of aerosol optical properties over East Asia, Lee et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2025-281
Modeling the Radiative Forcing and Atmospheric Temperature Perturbations Caused by the 2022 Hunga Volcano Explosion, Stenchikov et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2024jd041940
The decline in desert drift potential weakens aeolian dust emission, Zhang et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104844
Climate change communications & cognition
Feeling responsible for reducing climate change: a multi-level European study on the role of religion and state, Van Praag & De Coninck, Environmental Sociology 10.1080/23251042.2025.2512606
Media Effects, Emotion, and Race: Extending the Climate Change Risk Perception Model in the United States, Gilbert & Lachlan , Environmental Communication Open Access 10.1080/17524032.2025.2507000
Political Differences in Climate Change Knowledge and TheirAssociation with Climate Attitudes, Behavior, and Policy Support, Stockus & Zell, Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102640
Representations of Youth Climate Anxiety: A Framing Analysis of Emotional Responses to the Climate Crisis in International News Media, Murray et al., Environmental Communication Open Access 10.1080/17524032.2025.2510374
The Conditional Effects of Air Conditioning: How Air Conditioning Affects Climate Change Views by Partisanship in Los Angeles County, Sandlin, Weather, Climate, and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-24-0081.1
The Conditional Effects of Air Conditioning: How Air Conditioning Affects Climate Change Views by Partisanship in Los Angeles County, Sandlin, Weather, Climate, and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-24-0081.1
Unveiling the Backlash in Public Opinion on Climate Change: A Longitudinal Study of Climate Change-Related Population Segments and Communicative Engagement in Germany, Reif et al., Environmental Communication Open Access 10.1080/17524032.2025.2507006
“I can’t compromise the quality of my life I’m sorry”: Privileged individuals in the United Kingdom show little willingness to change high-carbon lifestyles, Duncan et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104114
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
50 years of breeding to improve yield: how maize stands up to climate change, Cagnola et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 10.1098/rstb.2024.0250
Adaptive agroforestry—mitigating climate change impacts by farmers’ perception in different climate conditions in Iran, Ghanbari et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2025.1473355
Crop Model Ensemble Averaging: A Large But Underappreciated Uncertainty Source for Global Crop Yield Projections Under Climate Change, Yin et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005900
Crops and rising atmospheric CO2: friends or foes?, Brown et al., IUPAC Standards Online Open Access pdf 10.1515/iupac.68.0928
Crops under stress: can we mitigate the impacts of climate change on agriculture and launch the ‘Resilience Revolution’?, Mittler et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rstb.2024.0228
Designing for dual-use solar: An examination of the agrivoltaic policy landscape in the United States, Macy et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114682
Determinants of climate change adaptation strategies among rural household farmers in the Wolaita zone, Southern Ethiopia, Debisa et al., Discover Applied Sciences Open Access 10.1007/s42452-025-07168-x
Evaluating heat and drought resilience in ancient Indian Dwarf wheat Triticum sphaerococcum Percival using stress tolerance indices, Gaikwad et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-025-02502-0
Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024
Nature-based climate solutions can help mitigate the radiative forcing that follows deforestation, Falvo & Robertson, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02291-4
Needs and opportunities to future-proof crops and the use of crop systems to mitigate atmospheric change, Long, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rstb.2024.0229
Non-Continuous Flooding Outperforms Continuous Flooding in Rice Fields Net Carbon Sequestration Despite Losses in Soil Organic Carbon Sequestration, Hou et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70283
Priming thermotolerance: unlocking heat resilience for climate-smart crops, Chopra et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 10.1098/rstb.2024.0234
Prioritizing parents from global genebanks to breed climate-resilient crops, Campbell et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02333-x
The heat is on: scaling improvements in photosynthetic thermal tolerance from the leaf to canopy to predict crop yields in a changing climate, Cavanagh & Matthews, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rstb.2024.0235
Transcriptional gene network involved in drought stress response: application for crop breeding in the context of climate change, Nakashima et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rstb.2024.0236
What constitutes climate change adaptation in Kenyan livestock systems: a systematic review, Kihoro et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2025.2502468
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
A pseudo global warming based system to study how climate change affects high impact rainfall events., Lenderink et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100781
Climate change economics
Climate risk and low-carbon policies: implications for sports economics and global events, Fu & Kong, Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1578634
Global PV supply Chains: Costs and energy savings, GHG emissions reductions, Liu & Shen Liu Shen, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114716
Negotiating risks to natural capital in net-zero transitions, Pascale et al., Nature Sustainability 10.1038/s41893-025-01576-y
Per capita carbon footprint convergence in developing countries: the role of energy factors, Muhammad et al., Climate and Development Open Access 10.1080/17565529.2025.2511900
Promoting environmentally and socially responsible investing: interplay between climate and financial literacy, Kurowski et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2025.2511261
Climate change mitigation public policy research
Being everything for everybody all at once: Facework for trustworthiness of a citizens’ assembly for the climate, Mendy et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104104
Carbon credit assessment for Mangrove conservation: A detailed study of Futian Mangrove reserve in Shenzhen, Li et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107255
EU climate policy in turbulent times: understanding the response to the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, von Homeyer et al., Environmental Politics Open Access 10.1080/09644016.2025.2510063
Influence of critical masses in firm boards on voluntary climate disclosure: evidence from Indian-listed firms, Sanyal & George, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2025.2511897
Navigating the energy transition: insights from a systematic scoping review of challenges and pathways in developing nations, Mustapha et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104098
Political economy of energy policy in Indonesia towards net zero emissions by 2060, Massagony et al., Energy for Sustainable Development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2025.101757
Psychological insights and structural solutions: using community frame (c-frame) in climate action and policy response, Anjum & Aziz, Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2025.2511267
Public opinion foundations of the clean energy transition, Gazmararian et al., Environmental Politics Open Access 10.1080/09644016.2025.2508563
Regulatory state capacity for accelerating net-zero transitions: Lessons learned from governing electricity storage in Germany, Käsbohrer et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114659
What functions for city networks in local climate governance? Conceptualising cross-site interactions as learning, moulding and steering, Schrage & Shrestha, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability Open Access 10.1016/j.cosust.2025.101540
“I didn’t like them from the beginning, and I hate them now.” Changes in attitudes towards electric vehicles and phase-out policies for conventional cars, Hoppe et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114715
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Do cities with greater transformative governance capacity pursue more ambitious policies? Examining U.S. cities through the lens of climate resiliency, Mohsen Fatemi et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2025.2512453
Post-flood selective migration interacts with media sentiment and income effects, Fan et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02345-7
Vulnerability of power distribution networks to local temperature changes induced by global climate change, Prudhvi Guddanti et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-59749-4
When boundaries are blurred: infrastructure needs in support of the climate displaced, Best et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1584877
Climate change impacts on human health
Climate-related healthy housing risk factors: a scoping review of citizen science approaches, Mansour et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104102
High resolution assessment of air quality and health in Europe under different climate mitigation scenarios, Pisoni et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-60449-2
Housing and household vulnerabilities to summer overheating: A Latent Classification for England, Zhang et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104126
Impacts of Breaching Planetary Boundaries on Human Health: Current and Future Threats, Kemarau et al., GeoHealth Open Access 10.1029/2024gh001107
Increasing Mosquito Abundance Under Global Warming, Nair et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005629
Rising Dewpoint Temperature and Mosquito-Borne Disease in the Caribbean, Jury, Weather, Climate, and Society 10.1175/wcas-d-24-0029.1
Other
Anthropogenic iron alters the spring phytoplankton bloom in the North Pacific transition zone, Hawco et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2418201122
Audio long read: Three ways to cool Earth by pulling carbon from the sky, Tollefson & Thompson, Nature 10.1038/d41586-025-01650-7
Impact of Anthropogenic Heat on Air Temperature: A First-Order Estimate Using Dimensional Analysis and Numerical Simulations, Khanh et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl114400
Urbanization mitigates the intensification of summer wet heatwaves in China from 1970 to 2020, Wen et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102476
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Navigating AI and climate change in an unequal world, Mathur & Chamuah, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2025.2503373
The polar regions hold crucial scientific secrets — and the time to study them is running out, Macias-Fauria, Nature 10.1038/d41586-025-01683-y
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update (2025-2029), World Meteorological Organization
Global mean temperatures are likely to continue at or near record levels in the five-year period 2025-2029. The annually averaged global mean near-surface temperature for each year between 2025 and 2029 is predicted to be between 1.2°C and 1.9°C higher than the average over the years 1850-1900. It is likely (86% chance) that global mean near-surface temperature will exceed 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average levels for at least one year between 2025 and 2029. It is also likely (70% chance) that the 2025-2029 five-year mean will exceed 1.5°C above the 1850-1900 average. It is likely (80% chance) that at least one year between 2025 and 2029 will be warmer than the warmest year on record (currently 2024) and although exceptionally unlikely, there is now also a chance (1%) of at least one year exceeding 2°C of warming in the next five years. Long-term warming (averaged over decades) remains below 1.5°C. The five-year average temperature in the Niño 3.4 region relative to the whole tropics indicates mixed or mainly neutral ENSO conditions in this period.
A Paper Trail of Pollution. U.S. Paper Industry Stained by Aging Infrastructure, Dirty Fuels, and Hidden Climate Impact, Bernhardt et al., Environmental Integrity Proejct
The authors examined 185 of the largest paper mills in the U.S. and found that the industry’s aging infrastructure — including heating units called boilers that in some cases date back to World War II — and the industry’s burning of dirty fuels like coal, tires, and a tar-like waste product called “black liquor,” are contributing to a heavy environmental footprint. EPA’s inaccurate system for reporting greenhouse gases, which allows companies to exclude the carbon dioxide released from burning “black liquor” and other wood products, hides the real climate impact of paper mills and inhibits an industry transition to cleaner production methods. The authors found that 73 percent of large pulp and paper mills (135 of the 185 examined) have outdated boilers. This is a problem because outdated boilers, defined as older than 15 years, tend to be less efficient and are more likely to release higher rates of pollution than newer ones. The average age of a boiler at the mills examined for this report was 41 years. That means the technology dates back to President Reagan’s first term, when rotary-dial telephones were still a widely-used technology. Over 40 percent of the mills studied (77 out of the 185) had at least one boiler that was a half-century old or more. In order to get air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions under control, outdated industrial boilers like those used in the industry need to be cleaned up. They should be replaced, when possible, by newer technologies like industrial heat pumps, which are more efficient and create no emissions, especially in areas with abundant sources of renewable energy.
Agricultural Land Footprint of Solar Photovoltaic Installations in Arkansas, Wagher et al., Division of Agriculture, University of Arkansas
Solar energy production is increasingly being used to meet both energy needs and zero net emissions goals within the United States. Arkansas is following this trend with several utility-scale solar energy production systems built in 2023 and 2024, and more scheduled to come online in the following years. This has raised some concerns over the displacement of agricultural land for non-food production purposes. Large-scale solar power arrays occupy about 0.2 percent of agricultural land in Arkansas. The utility-scale solar projects range from up to 445 acres for a 50-megawatt site to up to 2,670 acres for a 300-megawatt site.
How increasing global military expenditure threatens SDG 13 on Climate action, Kinney et al., Conflict and Environment Observatory
The authors outline the effect rising military expenditure has on the achievement of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 13: take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts, looking specifically at the following targets including strengthen resilience and adaptive capacity to climate-related hazards and natural disasters in all countries; integrate climate change measures into national policies, strategies and planning; implement the commitment undertaken by developed-country parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change to a goal of mobilizing jointly $100 billion annually; and, promote mechanisms for raising capacity for effective climate change-related planning and management in the least developed countries and small island developing States, including focusing on women, youth and local and marginalized communities. Through reviewing a range of research and presenting this alongside the historical and present context of military expenditure, the authors find that the global increase in military expenditure poses a substantial risk to the achievement of SDG 13.
Americans’ Views on How to Address the Impacts of Extreme Weather, Alec Tyson and Brian Kennedy, Pew Research Center
As weather and climate disasters costing over $1 billion in damages become regular occurrences in the United States, the authors found that 77% of Americans say stricter building standards are a good idea for communities at high risk of extreme weather. These findings come amid conversations about scaling back the role of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) in setting standards and working with states to handle disaster response. The authors also found that 64% of Americans think it is a good idea for government to provide financial assistance for people in high-risk communities to rebuild in the wake of extreme weather events, illustrating the multiple considerations Americans bring to conversations about how the country should deal with the growing impacts of extreme weather.
Climate worry is moving right, Simon Glynn and Claire Whitehead, Zero Ideas
It is easy to see climate change as a progressive issue. The cause is typically driven by the political left and embedded in broader progressive issues of social justice. But this perspective is numerically wrong and practically limiting. Climate policy and the climate movement are out of sync with today’s world. They need a reset. The climate-worried on the right and left have different priorities and expectations. The answer to polarization is not unity; it is pluralism. To appeal to the climate-worried right, we need to offer a pure-play climate agenda, the opportunity for national advantage, and the recognition of choice.
Existing power plants sharing grid access with new resources can lower costs and double California’s generation capacity, Paliwal et al., Center for Environmental Pubic Policy, Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley
CAISO’s interconnection queue has 505 GW of capacity waiting with average delays of 4-5 years. The queue is dominated by solar (152 GW) and storage (308 GW), with 99% being renewable and storage technologies. California electricity rates have surged by 44% since 2020 to reach $295/MWh for residential customers. Capacity prices have more than doubled from $94/MW-day in 2019 to $209/MW-day in 2024, reflecting growing resource adequacy challenges. California is losing significant economic opportunities due to power constraints. A Bloomberg survey found access to power is the #1 deciding factor for data center location. Despite California’s technological leadership, its data center growth (24% by 2035) dramatically lags behind ERCOT (161%) and the US average (67%) due to high power costs and grid capacity limitations. California can add 53 GW of clean energy capacity through surplus interconnection, including 36 GW of solar, 17 GW of wind, and 26 GW of energy storage at existing sites without new transmission. Surplus interconnection can meet 92% of California’s 2035 solar targets and 200% of its wind targets, providing over 100% of combined renewable capacity needed for 2035 SB100 targets.
Rapid Response Report: Speculation and Disinformation During and After the Iberian Power Outage, April & May 2025, Climate Action Against Disinformation
On 28 April 2025, a power outage occurred across the Iberian Peninsula, knocking out electricity for the majority of people in Spain and Portugal. The authors explore how, within hours, speculation about this global news story gave way to conspiracy theories and disinformation in Spanish-, Portuguese- and English-language. In particular, content falsely blaming renewables or net zero for the outage was actively shared in the media and social media. Instead of sharing accurate, responsible or constructive information during this crisis event, disinformation networks exploited it, spreading falsehoods – often thinly veiled as speculation or news reporting – as ideological ammunition to undermine scientifically viable solutions to the climate crisis. Social media algorithms, to varying degrees, allowed this content to spread far and wide. The disinformation that spread in the wake of this event looks similar to what we see during extreme weather events, and reflects a pattern of an increasingly polluted information environment online.
Clean Power Quarterly Market Report Q1 2025, The American Clean Power Association
American clean power capacity now exceeds 320 GW nationwide—enough to power nearly 80 million homes—driven by record-breaking battery storage deployment and a robust development pipeline worth $328 billion. The first quarter’s 115 project phases demonstrate continued private sector confidence in domestic energy production, with eight of the top ten deployment states having voted Republican in 2024. Battery storage surpassed 30 GW total capacity with a 65% year-over-year increase, while the development pipeline grew 12% to reach 184 GW, signaling sustained job creation and investment across America.
Hurricane risk 2025: Outpriced and underwater, Cotality
Hurricane risk is distorting property markets in places most people don’t expect. It’s reshaping who can buy, who can sell, and who gets left behind. Homeowners in seemingly stable markets are discovering their properties are losing value. Not because of location but because of insurance costs or availability. These liquidity traps are spreading beyond Florida into unprepared communities in Virginia, the Carolinas, and along the Gulf of Mexico (which was renamed by the Trump administration to the Gulf of America). Risk transparency and smarter mitigation are no longer optional. They are now the path to preserving home equity.
A scientific summary for policy-makers: the state of the science for Marine Carbon Dioxide Removal, Vivian et al., United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization
Due to the insufficient rate of emission reductions, there is increasing interest in exploring the potential for carbon dioxide removal in marine environments. Marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR) approaches are still in the early stages of development; many knowledge gaps and uncertainties remain. Each mCDR approach comes with trade-offs in terms of durability, energy demand and environmental impact, and would require large ocean areas if considered for large-scale implementation. A key challenge is to enhance technical and regulatory monitoring, reporting and verification (MRV) capacities for marine interventions. Future implementation of any and all mCDR approaches will require site-specific assessments, robust regulatory frameworks and an approach that balances ocean protection and use.
The Devil is in the Details: Minerals, Batteries, and US Dependence on Chinese Imports, Ben Taulli and Joshua Busby, THe Center for Climate and Security
U.S. dependence on China for critical minerals and battery supply chains represents a national security risk, leaving the country potentially vulnerable to military supply chain disruptions, coercion, cyber threats, and risks to key economic sectors. While it is well understood that China dominates key segments of the global market, the degree of U.S. reliance on Chinese suppliers remains unclear due to data limitations. Current trade data fails to capture firm-level dependencies and market concentration fully, impeding policymakers’ ability to make informed decisions. The authors examine the global battery supply chain, identifies gaps in trade data, and outlines four key recommendations for improving U.S. tracking of import reliance.
Plastics: Exposing Their Climate Impacts, Kaufman et al., Environmental Law Institute, Monterey Bay Aquarium, and the University of Wollongong, Australia
The authors analyze existing peer-reviewed data, identify critical data gaps, lay out a roadmap for continued research, and recommend policies and actions to support that research and to include plastics’ climate effects in relevant models, scenarios, accounting, and analyses.
2024 Highlights, The Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture
Each year, the Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture (TIA) releases an Annual Highlights Report to share achievements across its’ agricultural research, industry development, and educational initiatives. The report also includes a comprehensive list of research projects, higher degree research projects, and publications. These efforts are dedicated to enhancing the productivity of Tasmania’s agriculture and food sectors while ensuring the preservation and improvement of Tasmania’s land and water quality for future generations. For example, a a major initiative supports sustainable growth in cool-climate horticulture with a goal of increasing industry value by 20% by 2030. The team involved in this initiative is making strong progress across multiple projects, including research focused on potato health and productivity, rotational cropping systems, cherries and berries, and vegetable seed crops.
Tidal Wave. Greenhouse Gas Emissions from the Coming Wave of US Natural Gas Transmission Pipelines, Daniel Richter and Jeremy Symons, Center for Energy and Environmental Analysis
A tidal wave of new natural gas transmission pipelines throughout the United States could lead to record increases in U.S. natural gas production over the next five years. 104 natural gas transmission pipeline projects are planned or under construction across the United States. The total additional capacity of these planned pipelines – 99 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) – is just shy of the total volume of US natural gas production in 2024 (103 Bcf/d). Sixty-seven Bcf/d of gas pipeline capacity is expected to be added between 2025 and 2027, which would be two and a half times more pipeline capacity than was installed during the past three years (26.9 Bcf/d, 2022-2024). The wave of planned natural gas transmission pipelines could have a CO2 footprint greater than all U.S. coal consumption, locking in emissions for decades and undermining U.S. and global climate progress. Building new gas transmission pipelines will significantly increase U.S. emissions of methane, a potent greenhouse gas. The Trump administration’s deregulatory agenda will contribute to high methane leak rates from oil and gas operations, resulting in an even higher climate footprint from new transmission capacity and associated production
Climate Change and the Escalation of Global Extreme Heat: Assessing and Addressing the Risks, Giguere et al., World Weather Attribution
The authors assessed the influence of human-caused climate change on dangerous heat waves over the past 12 months. They found that 4 billion people, about 49% of the global population, experienced at least 30 extra days of extreme heat (hotter than 90% of temperatures observed in their local area over the 1991-2020 period) that was made at least two times more likely due to human-caused climate change.
Corporate Climate Responsibility Monitor 2025: Food and agriculture sector deep-dive, Smit et al., NewClimate Institute
The Corporate Climate Responsibility Monitor evaluates the transparency and integrity of companies’ climate strategies, with the objectives of identifying good practices and highlighting areas for improvement in the corporate climate accountability system. This year focuses on the agrifood sector, featuring analysis based on detailed case studies of Danone, JBS, Mars, Nestlé and PepsiCo. These companies were selected as the largest five food and agriculture companies by revenue in 2023, excluding predominantly manufacturing companies. We find that agrifood companies present measures that are unlikely to lead to structural, deep emission reductions in the sector. The assessed agrifood companies do not have strong commitments to shifting to plant- based protein thereby neglecting the most important measure to cut methane emissions. Most of the assessed agrifood companies are committed to halting deforestation. However, details on implementation are generally lacking, and deforestation targets do not cover all commodities. Only one company explicitly mentions the importance of reducing the use of synthetic fertilizer. Three of the five assessed agrifood companies present measures and targets to reduce food loss and waste, while the others do not address the issue at all in their climate strategies. Four of the five assessed agrifood companies present measures to reduce emissions in the short term, but these are unlikely to lead to structural, deep emission reductions in the sector in the long term.
Aviation White Paper, Chen et al., Alliance for Renewable Clean Hydrogen Energy Systems
The authors provide a guideline for the integration of hydrogen in California’s aviation sector. Hydrogen, as a potential green aviation fuel, holds promise in addressing the industry’s environmental challenges, especially in reducing carbon emissions and moving toward a sustainable future. Despite its promise, scaling hydrogen use at airports faces several hurdles, including high production costs, limited infrastructure, and a lack of consistent safety standards.
Enhancing Finance for People-Centered Early Warning Systems, Risk Informed Early-Action Partnership
The authors summarize the findings from an upcoming study that critically examines the current landscape of overseas development assistance in financing Early Warning Systems (EWS), with a specific focus on ensuring that these systems are people-centered. Key challenges identified include fragmented mandates and financing streams among stakeholders, insufficient measurement of investment quality and its impact, power imbalances in decision-making processes, and structural barriers preventing local implementing actors from accessing funds for EWS directly.
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