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HomeClimate Change NewsSkeptical Science New Research for Week #28 2023

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #28 2023


Skeptical Science New Research for Week #28 2023

Posted on 13 July 2023 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Housekeeping 

A reader mentioned (thank you!) that last week’s edition included at least one paper flagged as open access that actually wasn’t. It seems to be the case that Nature Publishing is passing some duff data into the publication metadata food chain, with the result that Unpaywall (we employ the Unpaywall API to identify open access) is repeating this erroneous input to us. This week’s edition finds direct links to open access articles from Nature journals still not working, but PDF links appear to be working properly.

Open access notables

Solids, liquids and gases all vary in length and volume as their temperature changes, according to various expressions of coefficients of thermal expansion. Different materials have varying thermal coefficients as individual properties. Mix this thermal inhomogeneity with infrastructure and climate change and various problems emerge, including fatigue and inelastic strain. Northwestern University’s Allesandro Rota Loria employs Chicago as a case study of what we may expect as our climate warms, combining sensor data a modeling. This intriguing paper suggests we’ve yet another massive, imminent expense and hassle on our hands thanks to fossil fuel combustion. See The silent impact of underground climate change on civil infrastructure.

Thanks to procrastination what might have been energy modernization happening over many decades now needs to happen more quickly. Urgent haste can lead to dangerously compromised decisions, especially when astronomical amounts of raw materials must quickly come into play. Two reports should help remind us of our need for circumspection and possibly rearranging how and where we compromise. One comes from this week’s government/NGO section, while the other is an academic paper. See Planet Tracker’s The sky high cost of deep sea mining (PDF), and Amon et al. in Ocean Sustainability with Climate change to drive increasing overlap between Pacific tuna fisheries and emerging deep-sea mining industry. Continue behaving as usual at the expense of catastrophic damages, or change our habits to a tolerable degree? This is the face of compromise.

Assigning accountability and responsibility for breaking Earth’s climate system is heating up along with global temperatures. Drawing from Sabin Center for Climate Change Law databases,  Global trends in climate change litigation: 2023 snapshot (PDF) is a quck means of catching up on recent significant events. The whole report is worth a visit but here’s the slimmest skinny:

Recent trends include: litigants are employing recognizable strategies across different jurisdiction; most recorded cases are ‘climate-aligned’ outcomes but non-climate aligned litigation (e.g. ‘ESG backlash’) is increasing; more cases are being filed against corporate actors, with a more complex range of legal arguments; around 20 cases filed by U.S. cities and states against the Carbon Majors are now likely to go to trial; and there has been growth in ‘climate-washing’ cases challenging the accuracy of green claims and commitments. Some cases seeking financial damages are also challenging disinformation, with many relying on consumer protection law.

Sometimes it’s the case that crowds of well-meaning people fall to squabbling over how to arrive at the same agreed destination of energy transition success. This is more likely when the environment often includes monomania driven at least in part by commercial considerations involving vast amounts of money. How about some signposts everybody can agree with? Ajay Gambhir and  Alexandros Nikas offer just that, in Seven key principles for assessing emerging low-carbon technological opportunities for climate change mitigation action, just published in PLOS Climate.

In How to make climate-neutral aviation fly Romain Sacchi et al. perform what we’ve not before seen: full accountancy for creating and fueling “net zero” aviation employing hydrocarbon fuels of any kind, starting from the roots and comprehensively including inputs and emissions. As complexities are revealed in this paper it ends up unsurprising that the runway for sustainable hydrocarbon-fueled aviation appears to be much longer and bumpier than we’d like. The paper’s implication is that flying-as-usual arguably will make achieving lift off at net zero impossible; in order to make net zero aviation possible at all in the future we immediately need to fly less. It follows that to any extent that we fly more now we’re going to make an already nearly impossible job even worse. Cutting back should be easy;  most of us who travel by air can easily chop our aviation by half or more and— given the joys of modern air travel–  probably end up with the same or lower blood pressure.

162 articles in 73 journals by 862 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Cross-Shelf Exchanges Between the East Greenland Shelf and Interior Seas, Duyck & De Jong De Jong, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2023jc019905

Dichotomy between freshwater and heat flux effects on oceanic conveyor belt stability and global climate, Hu et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-00916-0

Integrated changes in tropical precipitation and circulation under global warming: moist static energy budget and the role of sea surface warming pattern, Zhang & Huang, Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-023-06877-6

Physics-based modeling of climate change impact on hurricane-induced coastal erosion hazards, Jamous et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41612-023-00416-0

Rate-induced tipping to metastable Zombie fires, O’Sullivan et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rspa.2022.0647

Surface energy balance on a polythermal glacier, Arctic, and the role of poleward atmospheric moisture transport, Zou et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106910

Observations of climate change, effects

Alaska Terrestrial and Marine Climate Trends, 1957–2021, Ballinger et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0434.1

Assessing climatic, edaphic, vegetation cover data, and their trends around cities located in desert environments using online remote sensing, Jamali et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-03550-0

Atmospheric Drivers of Tasman Sea Marine Heatwaves, Gregory et al., Journal of Climate Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0538.1

Effects of climate change and human activities on environment and area variations of the Aral Sea in Central Asia, Duan et al., International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 10.1007/s13762-023-05072-8

Event-based extreme precipitation variability analysis over a part of the Hindu Kush Himalayan region, Malla & Arya, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8082

Four decades of trends and drivers of global surface ocean acidification, Ma et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access 10.1029/2023gb007765

Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022, Ballester et al., Nature Medicine Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41591-023-02419-z

Intra-annual snowfall variability in the central United States, Suriano et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8170

Recent changes in the snow cover characteristics in Poland, Wibig & J?druszkiewicz, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8178

Recent seasonally contrasting and persistent warming trends in Latvia, Kalv?ns et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04540-y

Spatiotemporal characteristics of high winds in Jilin Province during 1982–2021, Wei et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8070

Strengthening of Sri Lanka summer monsoon rainfall with rapid Arabian Sea warming, Kajakokulan et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8172

Synoptic Typing of Multiduration, Heavy Precipitation Records in the Northeastern United States: 1895–2017, Crossett et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-22-0091.1

The extreme heat wave in China in August 2022 related to extreme northward movement of the eastern center of SAH, Zhou et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106918

The historical social cost of fossil and industrial CO2 emissions, Rickels et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-023-01709-1

Unprecedented early summer warming recorded in tree rings on the central eastern Tibetan Plateau over the past three centuries, Shi et al., Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-023-06881-w

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

BESSv2.0: A satellite-based and coupled-process model for quantifying long-term global land–atmosphere fluxes, Li et al., Remote Sensing of Environment Open Access 10.1016/j.rse.2023.113696

Can Oxygen Utilization Rate Be Used to Track the Long-Term Changes of Aerobic Respiration in the Mesopelagic Atlantic Ocean?, Guo et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022gl102645

GRiMeDB: the Global River Methane Database of concentrations and fluxes, Stanley et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-15-2879-2023

Making the Case for High-Resolution Regional Ocean Reanalyses: An Example with the Red Sea, Sanikommu et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-21-0287.1

Multi-sensor detection of spring breakup phenology of Canada’s lakes, Giroux-Bougard et al., Remote Sensing of Environment Open Access 10.1016/j.rse.2023.113656

Towards the determination of the dissolved CO2 concentration in aqueous solutions under extreme climatic stress conditions, Roufou et al., International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 10.1007/s13762-023-05083-5

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Dramatic increase in the probability of 2006-like compound dry and hot events over southwest China under future global warming, Wu et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2023.100592

Future Projections of Multiple Tropical Cyclone Events in the Northern Hemisphere in the CMIP6-HighResMIP Models, Fu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl103064

Hysteretic Behavior of Global to Regional Monsoon Area Under CO2 Ramp-Up and Ramp-Down, Paik et al., Earth’s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022ef003434

Projected changes in extreme climate events over Africa under 1.5 , 2.0 and 3.0 global warming levels based on CMIP6 projections, Ayugi et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106872

Projection of future fire emissions over the contiguous US using explainable artificial intelligence and CMIP6 models, Wang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2023jd039154

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

A comparative study of TOPSIS-based GCMs selection and multi-model ensemble, Han et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8150

An assessment of CMIP6 climate signals and biases in temperature, precipitation and soil moisture over Europe, Ossó et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8169

Assessment of the applicability of large-scale climate ensemble simulations for analysing future extreme rainfall, Kim et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.8168

Convection-permitting climate simulations for South America with the Met Office Unified Model, Halladay et al., Climate Dynamics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-023-06853-0

Dynamics of the marine dissolved organic carbon reservoir in glacial climate simulations: The importance of biological production, Gilchrist & Matsumoto, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology 10.1029/2022pa004522

Effects of ITCZ Poleward Location Bias on ENSO Seasonal Phase-Locking Simulation in Climate Models, Liao et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0891.1

Improving sea surface temperature in a regional ocean model through refined sea surface temperature assimilation, Iversen et al., Ocean Science Open Access pdf 10.5194/os-19-729-2023

Intermodel Biases of the Western North Pacific Monsoon Trough in CMIP6 Models, Feng et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0395.1

On the simulations of latent heat flux over the Indian Ocean in CMIP6 models, Mohan & Ruchith, Climate Dynamics 10.1007/s00382-023-06871-y

Cryosphere & climate change

CRYO, Beatty et al., 7th Joint MMM Open Access 10.1109/intmag.1998.742164

Satellite record reveals 1960s acceleration of Totten Ice Shelf in East Antarctica, Li et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-39588-x

Sensitivity of Glaciers in the European Alps to Anthropogenic Atmospheric Forcings: Case Study of the Argentière Glacier, Clauzel et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022gl100363

Spatial and temporal differences in surface and subsurface meltwater distribution over Greenland ice sheet using multi-frequency passive microwave observations, Colliander et al., Remote Sensing of Environment Open Access 10.1016/j.rse.2023.113705

Towards modelling of corrugation ridges at ice-sheet grounding lines, Hogan et al., The Cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-17-2645-2023

Sea level & climate change

Coastal erosion and climate change: A review on coastal-change process and modeling, Pang et al., Ambio 10.1007/s13280-023-01901-9

Coevolution of Extreme Sea Levels and Sea-Level Rise Under Global Warming, Boumis et al., Earth’s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003649

Constraining the contribution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to Last Interglacial sea level, Barnett et al., Science Advances Open Access pdf 10.1126/sciadv.adf0198

Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry

Fundamental Shift From Summer to Winter of Holocene Rainfall Regime in the Tropics, Lan et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl102909

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Approaching a thermal tipping point in the Eurasian boreal forest at its southern margin, Rao et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-00910-6

Can nesting behaviour allow reptiles to adapt to climate change?, Du et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 10.1098/rstb.2022.0153

Citizen science data reveal regional heterogeneity in phenological response to climate in the large milkweed bug, Oncopeltus fasciatus, Garretson et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.10213

Climate change amplifies the risk of potentially toxigenic cyanobacteria, Erratt et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16838

Climate-driven phenological shifts in emergence dates of British bees, Wyver et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.10284

Dynamical BLUP modeling of reaction norm evolution, accommodating changing environments, overlapping generations, and multivariate data, Ergon, Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.10194

Ecological indicators reveal historical regime shifts in the Black Sea ecosystem, Akoglu, PeerJ Open Access 10.7717/peerj.15649

Fire may prevent future Amazon forest recovery after large-scale deforestation, Drüke et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-00911-5

Future climate change effects on US forest composition may offset benefits of reduced atmospheric deposition of N and S, Clark et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.16817

Observed forest trait velocities have not kept pace with hydraulic stress from climate change, Quetin et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16847

Picturing local adaptation: Spectral and structural traits from drone remote sensing reveal clinal responses to climate transfer in common-garden trials of interior spruce (Picea engelmannii × glauca), Grubinger et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16855

Putting plasticity into practice for effective conservation actions under climate change, Donelson et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01706-4

Rapid heat hardening in embryos of the lizard Anolis sagrei, Gleason et al., Biology Letters 10.1098/rsbl.2023.0174

Sensitivity of North American grassland birds to weather and climate variability, Nelson et al., Conservation Biology 10.1111/cobi.14143

Short-term response of macroalgal communities to ocean warming in the Southern Bay of Biscay, Arriaga et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.106098

Thermal refugia and persistence of Texas horned lizards (Phrynosoma cornutum) in small towns, Tucker et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access pdf 10.1002/ece3.10245

Top-Down Regulation by a Reindeer Herding System Limits Climate-Driven Arctic Vegetation Change at a Regional Scale, Spiegel et al., Earth’s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022ef003407

Untangling the influences of air quality and climate change on biodiversity in space and time, Phoenix & Khafsha, Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16858

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Anthropogenic Attribution of the Increasing Seasonal Amplitude in Surface Ocean pCO2, Joos et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl102857

Chemical weathering rates and controlling mechanisms of glacial catchments within different climate regimes in the Tibetan Plateau, Guo et al., PeerJ Open Access 10.7717/peerj.15594

Concentrations and controls of dissolved inorganic carbon in Arctic summer sea ice and adjacent surface seawaters, Cai et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.106083

Extreme events and impacts on organic carbon cycles from ocean color remote sensing: Review with case study, challenges, and future directions, D’Sa et al., Earth Open Access 10.1016/j.earscirev.2023.104503

Groundwater springs formed during glacial retreat are a large source of methane in the high Arctic, Kleber et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41561-023-01210-6

High-frequency, year-round time series of the carbonate chemistry in a high-Arctic fjord (Svalbard), Gattuso et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-15-2809-2023

Individual and interactive effects of warming and nitrogen supply on CO2 fluxes and carbon allocation in subarctic grassland, Meeran et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16851

Local-to-regional methane emissions from the Upper Silesian Coal Basin (USCB) quantified using UAV-based atmospheric measurements, Andersen et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-23-5191-2023

Long-term characterization of organic and elemental carbon at three different background areas in northern Europe, Friman et al., Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2023.119953

Methane emissions from land and aquatic ecosystems in Western Siberia: An analysis with methane biogeochemistry models, Xi et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2023jg007466

Methane emissions from shale gas production sites in southern Sichuan, China: A field trial of methods, XUE et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.07.001

Methane in West Siberia terrestrial seeps: Origin, transport, and metabolic pathways of production, Sabrekov et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.16863

Microbial carbon use efficiency in different ecosystems: A meta-analysis based on a biogeochemical equilibrium model, He et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.16861

Models overestimate ecosystem water use efficiency for northern permafrost regions, Wang & Liu, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109594

Modification of closed static chambers for collection of greenhouse gases emitted by soil, Galdino et al., International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 10.1007/s13762-023-05068-4

Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001

Structural and species diversity explain aboveground carbon storage in forests across the United States: Evidence from GEDI and forest inventory data, Crockett et al., Remote Sensing of Environment 10.1016/j.rse.2023.113703

Substantially Enhanced Landscape Carbon Sink Due To Reduced Terrestrial-Aquatic Carbon Transfer Through Soil Conservation in the Chinese Loess Plateau, Ran et al., Earth’s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023ef003602

Temperature-mediated microbial carbon utilization in China’s lakes, Guo et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.16840

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

A monitoring system for CO2-EOR and storage based on reactive transport simulation of CO2 migration in groundwater, Li et al., International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 10.1007/s13762-022-04508-x

Formation of soil organic carbon pool is regulated by the structure of dissolved organic matter and microbial carbon pump efficacy: A decadal study comparing different carbon management strategies, Chen et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.16865

Managing forests for carbon–Status of the forest carbon offset markets in the United States, Kaarakka et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000158

Decarbonization

2D/3D heterojunction engineering at the buried interface towards high-performance inverted methylammonium-free perovskite solar cells, Li et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-023-01295-8

BEVSIM: Battery electric vehicle sustainability impact assessment model, Mehta et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology Open Access pdf 10.1111/jiec.13415

Community response to microgrid development: Case studies from the U.S., Muttaqee et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113690

Implementation and operational feasibility of an offshore floating charging station for sustainable marine transportation, Sruthy & Preetha, Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-03512-6

Increased precipitation over land due to climate feedback of large-scale bioenergy cultivation, Li et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-39803-9

Thermal performance analysis of PCM solar wall under variable natural conditions: An experimental study, Durakovic & Halilovic, Energy for Sustainable Development 10.1016/j.esd.2023.101274

Transition process from fossil energy to photovoltaic energy power of ethnic communities belonging to the natural parks in the Colombian Pacific: A diagnostic study, Nessim et al., Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13412-023-00840-x

Geoengineering climate

Global environmental implications of atmospheric methane removal through chlorine-mediated chemistry-climate interactions, Li et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-39794-7

Ocean iron fertilization may amplify climate change pressures on marine animal biomass for limited climate benefit, Tagliabue et al., Global Change Biology Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16854

Aerosols

Increased dust transport from Patagonia to eastern Antarctica during 2000–2020, Shi et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104186

Radiative Forcing From the 2014–2022 Volcanic and Wildfire Injections, Yu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023gl103791

Climate change communications & cognition

Climate obstruction in the Global South: Future research trajectories, Edwards et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000241

Experiencing Climate Change Virtually: The Effects of Virtual Reality on Climate Change Related Cognitions, Emotions, and Behavior, Meijers et al., Environmental Communication Open Access pdf 10.1080/17524032.2023.2229043

Generational differences in climate-related beliefs, risk perceptions and emotions in the UK, Poortinga et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-023-00870-x

Innocent heroes or self-absorbed alarmists? A thematic review of the variety and effects of storylines about young people in climate change discourses, Raskin, Monthly Review Open Access 10.14452/mr-035-07-1983-11_5

Mapping the climate change attitude: careless or care less?, Beardsley, Scientific American Open Access 10.1038/scientificamerican0592-17

Moral power of youth activists – Transforming international climate Politics?, Nisbett & Spaiser Spaiser Spaiser , Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102717

Non-monetary narratives motivate businesses to engage with climate change, Luederitz et al., Sustainability Science Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11625-023-01386-1

The influence of risk perception on climate change communication behavior: a dual perspective of psychological distance and environmental values, Wu et al., Natural Hazards 10.1007/s11069-023-06028-4

Unraveling contributions of Greenland’s seasonal and transient crustal deformation during the past two decades, Li et al., Remote Sensing of Environment 10.1016/j.rse.2023.113701

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Adaptation constraints and prospects for future research priorities in lowland rice-based farming systems: learning experiences from Northwest Cambodia, Touch et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability Open Access 10.1007/s10668-023-03566-6

Agriculture, food security, and climate change in South Asia: a new perspective on sustainable development, Behera et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability Open Access 10.1007/s10668-023-03552-y

An evaluation of New York state livestock carbon offset projects under California’s cap and trade program, Pierce & Strong, Carbon Management Open Access pdf 10.1080/17583004.2023.2211946

Climate change to drive increasing overlap between Pacific tuna fisheries and emerging deep-sea mining industry, Amon et al., npj Ocean Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1038/s44183-023-00016-8

Enabling drip irrigation technology diffusion and adoption among African smallholders: a document analysis of climate action plans and donor projects, Hornum et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2023.2229268

GHG Emission Mitigation of Turkish Agriculture Sector: Potential and Cost Assessment, Sarica et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change 10.1007/s11027-023-10073-6

Growing degree-hours and degree-days in two management zones for each phenological stage of wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), Hachisuca et al., International Journal of Biometeorology 10.1007/s00484-023-02486-4

Linking Soil Structure, Hydraulic Properties, and Organic Carbon Dynamics: A Holistic Framework to Study the Impact of Climate Change and Land Management, Jha et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.1029/2023jg007389

Spatio-temporal trend of crop phenology, SPEI, and their interactions over different agro-ecological regions of India, Kumari et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04557-3

Technical note: Isolating methane emissions from animal feeding operations in an interfering location, McCabe et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-23-7479-2023

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

MOPREDAS&century database and precipitation trends in mainland Spain, 1916–2020, Gonzalez?Hidalgo et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8060

Observation-Constrained Projection of Flood Risks and Socioeconomic Exposure in China, Kang et al., Earth’s Future Open Access pdf 10.1029/2022ef003308

Past and future discharge and stream temperature at high spatial resolution in a large European basin (Loire basin, France), Seyedhashemi et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-15-2827-2023

Revisiting the application of the SWAT model in arid and semi-arid regions: a selection from 2009 to 2022, Rocha et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology 10.1007/s00704-023-04546-6

Socioeconomic exposure to drought under climate warming and globalization: The importance of vegetation-CO2 feedback, Wang & Sun, International Journal of Climatology Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.8174

Spatial analysis of urban water vulnerability in cities vulnerable to climate change: a study in Ahvaz, Iran, Alizadeh & Moshfeghi, International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 10.1007/s13762-023-05032-2

Climate change economics

Assessing the roles of efficient market versus regulatory capture in China’s power market reform, Xiang et al., Nature Energy Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41560-023-01278-9

Climate wealth borrowing by countries since 1950, , Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01717-1

Driving mechanism of the allometric relationship between economic development and carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, China, Lv et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability 10.1007/s10668-023-03519-z

The historical social cost of fossil and industrial CO2 emissions, Rickels et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-023-01709-1

The Impacts of Removing Fossil Fuel Subsidies and Increasing Carbon Taxation in Ireland, de Bruin & Yakut, Environmental and Resource Economics Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10640-023-00782-6

Climate change mitigation public policy research

A comparison study of grid impact of photovoltaic installations in Brazil according to Normative Resolution 482 and Federal law 14.300, de Souza Almeida Neto et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113699

A general explanation for environmental policy Support:An example using carbon taxation approval in Germany, Gerdes et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2023.102066

A systematic scoping review and content analysis of policy recommendations for climate-resilient agriculture, Manevska-Tasevska et al., Climate Policy Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2023.2232334

Changes in perception and the effects of personal attributes in decision-making as imaginary future generations: evidence from participatory environmental planning, Hara et al., Sustainability Science Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11625-023-01376-3

Designing a virtuous cycle: Quality of governance, effective climate change mitigation, and just outcomes support each other, Creutzig et al., Global Environmental Change 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2023.102726

Determinants of the adoption of energy efficient water heaters in the residential sector: Evidence from a survey in Japan, Tanaka & Mizutani Mizutani, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113688

Do large, educated, left-leaning cities really adopt more climate change policies? Testing for potential bias in planning and policy research, Stevens, Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101563

Evaluation of barriers and solutions to renewable energy acceleration in Malawi, Africa, using AHP and fuzzy TOPSIS approach, Chisale & Lee, Energy for Sustainable Development Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2023.101272

How to make climate-neutral aviation fly, Sacchi et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-39749-y

Is the development model moving towards a low-carbon resilience? Analysis on the characteristics of China’s provincial carbon emissions in the context of urbanization, Zhao et al., Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2023.2225479

Left behind: emerging oil and gas producers in a warming world, Marcel et al., Climate Policy Open Access pdf 10.1080/14693062.2023.2231398

Making policy-relevant knowledge in the IPCC Special Report on 1.5 degrees: An analysis of reviewer comments, Livingston & Rummukainen, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2023.06.001

Potential side effects of climate change mitigation on poverty and countermeasures, Fujimori et al., Sustainability Science Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11625-023-01369-2

Recent progress and emerging strategies for carbon peak and carbon neutrality in China, Liu et al., Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology 10.1002/ghg.2235

The interface between support schemes for renewable energy and security of supply: Reviewing capacity mechanisms and support schemes for renewable energy in Europe, Kozlova et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113707

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Analysing diurnal temperature range and extreme temperature events over Delhi and Mumbai mega cities, Shahfahad et al., Natural Hazards 10.1007/s11069-023-06077-9

Determination and prioritization of criteria to design urban energy resilience conceptual model (part 2), Mohaghegh Zahed & Abbaspour, International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 10.1007/s13762-023-05058-6

How can peacebuilding contribute to climate resilience? Evidence from the drylands of East and West Africa, Kurtz & Elsamahi, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 10.1016/j.cosust.2023.101315

How can peacebuilding contribute to climate resilience? Evidence from the drylands of East and West Africa, Kurtz & Elsamahi, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 10.1016/j.cosust.2023.101315

Quantifying the extent of climate inequality in China, Tan-Soo et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100536

The silent impact of underground climate change on civil infrastructure, Rotta Loria, Communications Engineering Open Access pdf 10.1038/s44172-023-00092-1

Climate change impacts on human health

Gender inequalities in heat-related mortality in the Czech Republic, Vésier & Urban Urban, International Journal of Biometeorology Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00484-023-02507-2

Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022, Ballester et al., Nature Medicine Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41591-023-02419-z

Hyperlocal Observations Reveal Persistent Extreme Urban Heat in Southeast Florida, Clement et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-22-0165.1

The diurnal variation of wet bulb temperatures and exceedance of physiological thresholds relevant to human health in South Asia, Justine et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-023-00897-0

Climate change impacts on human culture

The Effects of Climate Change on Outdoor Recreation Participation in the United States: Projections for the Twenty-First Century, Willwerth et al., Weather, Climate, and Society Open Access pdf 10.1175/wcas-d-22-0060.1

Other

A sociology of “climatage”: the appeal and counterproductivity of property destruction as a climate change strategy, Gunderson & Charles, Environmental Sociology 10.1080/23251042.2023.2234648

Challenging the values of the polluter elite: A global consequentialist response to Evensen and Graham’s (2022) ‘The irreplaceable virtues of in-person conferences’, Whitmarsh & Kreil, Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2022.101881

The influence of virtual environment on thermal perception: physical reaction and subjective thermal perception on outdoor scenarios in virtual reality, Wu et al., International Journal of Biometeorology 10.1007/s00484-023-02495-3

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

A framework for considering justice aspects in integrated wildfire risk management, Schinko et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-023-01726-0

Climate change to drive increasing overlap between Pacific tuna fisheries and emerging deep-sea mining industry, Amon et al., npj Ocean Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1038/s44183-023-00016-8

Eco-civilization: A complementary pathway rooted in theory and practice for global sustainable development, Zhang & Fu, Ambio 10.1007/s13280-023-01902-8

Seven key principles for assessing emerging low-carbon technological opportunities for climate change mitigation action, Gambhir & Nikas, PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000235

Significance of different ways of knowing in responding to the climate crisis: The necessity for Indigenous knowledge, Kassam et al., PLOS Climate Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000237


Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

A Qualitative Evaluation of California’s Policy Approach to Reducing Mobile Source Emissions, Sarode et al, University of California’s Berkeley Law’s Center for Law, Energy and the Environment, Plug-In Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Research Center, UC Davis and Transportation Sustainability Research Center, UC Berkeley

The authors assess the effects of the California Air Resources Board’s (CARB) policy approach on zero-emission vehicles. The authors recommend conducting a more comprehensive analysis of the current zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) sales and vehicle registration data to better quantify impacts from specific ZEV programs; compare ZEV purchases in California to those in other states with ZEV incentive programs, as well as states without such programs, to provide a comparative analysis that could indicate how California-specific programs may be affecting ZEV adoption; and establish consistent survey parameters across all the incentive programs to better inform the quantification estimates and analysis of consumer decision-making involving ZEVs.

What Counts as Climate, Preliminary Evidence from the World Bank’s Climate Portfolio, Nunez-Mujica et al., World Bank’s Center for Global Development

The World Bank is one of the largest providers of development finance to poor countries. In recent years, it has been under immense public pressure, mostly from its richest shareholders, to expand its climate portfolio. The authors examine the World Bank’s climate portfolio at the project level for the period 2000–2022 and find that financing is skewed towards mitigation projects. These projects lack estimates of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions, and there is no standardized reporting on GHG estimates across the portfolio. Further, hundreds of projects tagged climate—many in poorer countries—appear to have little to do with climate change mitigation or adaptation. The authors recommend that projects labeled climate should be accompanied by a clear explanation of why they mitigate emissions (with estimates of GHG reductions) or how they help increase resilience to climate-related events. Likewise, the Bank must do more to identify outputs and verify outcomes for climate projects.

Global trends in climate change litigation: 2023 snapshot, Joana Setzer and Catherine Higham, The Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment and The Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy

The authors review key global developments in climate change litigation, with a focus on the period May 2022 to May 2023, drawing primarily on the Climate Change Litigation databases maintained by the Sabin Centre for Climate Change Law. The authors provide a synthesis of the latest research and developments in the climate change litigation field, outlining general trends to date as well as focusing on cases filed in the previous 12 months. In addition, they provide an update on case numbers, metrics and categorizations based on those used in previous years’ reports, a thematic review of recent cases, and a discussion of the climate policy areas that are most likely to be subject to legal controversy in the coming months and years. Recent trends include litigants are employing recognizable strategies across different jurisdiction; most recorded cases are ‘climate-aligned’ outcomes but non-climate aligned litigation (e.g. ‘ESG backlash’) is increasing; more cases are being filed against corporate actors, with a more complex range of legal arguments; around 20 cases filed by U.S. cities and states against the Carbon Majors are now likely to go to trial; and there has been growth in ‘climate-washing’ cases challenging the accuracy of green claims and commitments. Some cases seeking financial damages are also challenging disinformation, with many relying on consumer protection law.

The sky high cost of deep sea mining, Emma Amadi and François Mosnier, Planet Tracker

The authors found that trying to restore the permanent damage to biodiversity caused by deep sea mining would cost so much that no one could afford to pay for it. While the likelihood of success for deep sea restoration is low, its cost is so high that it would be impossible for companies to pay for it and operate at a profit. Attempts to restore these ecosystems by replacing polymetallic nodules – key for marine life – with artificial clay nodules would cost USD 5.5-5.7 million per km2, more than the predicted company revenues of USD 4.4 million per km2. An area the size of Mongolia (1.5 million km2, or more than 20 times the area mined on land) could be mined in international waters if no moratorium is decided. The authors calculated that the Environmental Compensation Fund developed by the International Seabed Authority (the UN-backed seabed regulator) cannot be sufficiently capitalized to cover the cost of restoration either. Restoring just 30% of deep sea mining concessions in international waters would likely cost more than the entire global defense budget.

Power Up PJM, Noah Strand, American Council on Renewable Energy

PJM Interconnection (PJM), a regional transmission organization (RTO) that manages the movement of wholesale electricity in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region, is in the process of implementing grid interconnection queue reforms, but faces ongoing challenges. Over the past several years, thousands of new projects totaling 259 gigawatts (GW) of energy capacity have submitted interconnection requests in the region. Nearly all of those projects are wind, solar, and battery storage. To begin addressing these issues, PJM will implement a set of procedural reforms to expedite the approval of pending interconnection applications by Q1 2026. The reforms have placed an embargo on all new service requests until this approximately four-year transition period has concluded. After reopening the queue, PJM will begin evaluating projects in groups and allocate the costs of the necessary network improvements accordingly. The author estimates that if PJM had proactively developed sufficient transmission capacity prior to enacting these reforms, the region could have enabled an additional 100,000 job-years and $17 billion in additional capital investment over the next four years.

New climate data reveals warmer, wetter future for the US, Bishop et al., ICF Climate Center

New internationally recognized climate projections recently became publicly available. Some federal government agencies and United Nations agencies have begun using the new data, but it is not yet widely used in climate risk and adaptation plans across the U.S. The authors use a climate risk analytics platform, ClimateSight, to offer a glimpse into how this new data changes the understanding of future climate risks. The new data overall projects the potential for warmer and wetter extreme weather in the future across the continental United States. In a worst-case scenario, Americans could experience on average up to 53 days with temperatures above 95° F degrees and 3.5 inches during extreme three-day precipitation events by midcentury. The upper end of this range is higher than the projections made with prior versions of the climate data and could change the way federal agencies, state and local governments, utilities, and other stakeholders prepare for future climate risks.

Forecast of Atlantic Seasonal Hurricane Activity and Landfall Strike Probability for 2023, Klotzbach et al., Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University

Information obtained through June indicates that the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season will have activity above the 1991–2020 average. The authors estimate that 2023 will have a total of 18 named storms (average is 14.4), 90 named storm days (average is 69.4), 9 hurricanes (average is 7.2), 35 hurricane days (average is 27.0), 4 major (Category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 3.2) and 9 major hurricane days (average is 7.4). These numbers include the four named storms that have formed already this year (January subtropical storm, Arlene, Bret, and Cindy). The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is now estimated to be above the long-period average. The authors predict the Atlantic basin Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) and Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2023 to be approximately 115 percent of their 1991–2020 average.

Specification of a European Offshore Hydrogen Backbone, van Wingerden et al., Det Norske Veritas

Producing hydrogen offshore should be considered a priority for Europe as it provides an economical path to both decarbonization and energy security for the European Union. Given the large future demand for hydrogen, imports and domestic production of hydrogen will need to coexist, and there are strategic benefits for considering domestic production: Hydrogen demand will increase substantially in Europe in the coming decades to meet decarbonization goals. By 2050, hydrogen demand could exceed 2,000 TWh, with a corresponding need for large quantities of green hydrogen production from within the EU to help maintain Europe’s energy security. There is sufficient offshore wind generation planned for the North Sea to support around 300 TWh of offshore hydrogen. (For a critical commentary on the author’s assumptions, see How Many Bad Assumptions Can One Offshore Hydrogen Report Make? by Michael Barnard, https://cleantechnica.com/2023/07/09/how-many-bad-assumptions-can-one-offshore-hydrogen-report-make/. For example, “the €3.21 per kilogram of green offshore hydrogen the report came up with as it’s cheapest scenario already made the report’s conclusions nonsensical, but it’s interesting to look at the oddities in assumptions that led to offshore being cheapest.”)

Grid Integration Study Report, Michigan Public Service Commission

The authors conducted a study on power grid integration in Michigan that was submitted to the state Legislature, outlining impacts and recommendations for addressing growth in demand for electricity posed by increased adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and other moves toward electrification and next steps for integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) into the state’s distribution grid. The study addresses the potential grid impacts from interconnecting additional DERs and EVs including, but not limited to, the topic areas of growth of DERs and EVs, changes to system design and operations, and system benefits, costs, and other impacts.

Why Cooling is Key: How to decarbonize buildings with one weird trick, Building Decarbonization Coalition

The authors analyze the opportunity to electrify space heating in homes by replacing central air-conditioning units with central heat pumps–which are functionally identical as an air conditioning system, while tending to be superior in efficiency. They found that converting AC to heat pump sales would be a notably effective and cost-efficient strategy to dramatically accelerate electrification in homes across the U.S.


Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it’s frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light”  but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article’s relevance and importance. 

  • Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate

  • The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you’re interested in an article title and it is not listed here as “open access,” be sure to check the link anyway. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn’t to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers’ impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

  • Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a “yes” to this automatically. 
  • Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week’s 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

A few journals offer public access to “preprint” versions of articles for which the review process is not yet complete. For some key journals this all the mention we’ll see in RSS feeds, so we include such items in New Research. These are flagged as “preprint.”

The section “Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives” includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of “perspectives,” observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

Suggestions

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Journals covered

A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.

Previous edition

The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.



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