Skeptical Science New Research for Week #31 2025

Securing the forest carbon sink for the European Union’s climate ambition, Migliavacca et al., Nature 10.1038/s41586-025-08967-3

The heat is on: Policy solutions for industrial electrification, Rosenow et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104227

When climate assemblies call for stringent climate mitigation policies: Unlocking public acceptance or fighting a losing battle?, Paulis et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104159

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Adaptive capacity in Pacific Islands: Responding to coastal and climatic change in Nagigi village, Fiji, McMichael et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000504

Retreat in real time—Nantucket’s balancing act along a changing coast, McKaye et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1510802

Risk management in sustainable indigenous energies in the Mexican southeast: Towards new resilience routes for Mayan communities to climate change, Guzmán et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104194

Strategic foresight analysis for the management of land-sea interface in a climate change context: A comprehensive literature review, Grassi et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104111

Climate change impacts on human health

Heat Risk Interdependencies in the UK: Implications for Adaptation, Mehryar et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005797

Meta-Omics Analysis Reveals Global Distribution of Toxic Pseudo-nitzschia and Enhanced Neurotoxin Production Under Climate Warming, Xu et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70384

Temperature extremes impact mortality and morbidity differently, Gould et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adr3070

Toward Healthier, More Resilient, and Better Equipped Future: Call for Bold and Urgent Actions to the Health Impacts of Climate Change, Ouyang et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-25-0127.1

Climate change & geopolitics

A systematic literature review on the interconnection between climate change impacts and conflicts, Shaffril et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104169

Climate change impacts on human culture

A landscape study on the intersection between climate change and gender-based violence in Uganda, Familiar-Lopez et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000498

Other

Education and Community Engagement during NSF NCAR-Supported Field Campaigns, Zietlow et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-24-0315.1

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

How a ‘billion oysters’ could protect the New York coastline from climate change, Soliman, Nature 10.1038/d41586-024-03118-6

Reinstate the National Climate Assessment, Landry et al., Science 10.1126/science.adz3885

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Obligations of States in respect of Climate Change, International Court of Justice

The Court considers that all States have a common interest in the protection of global environmental commons like the atmosphere and the high seas. Consequently, States’ obligations pertaining to the protection of the climate system and other parts of the environment from anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, in particular the obligation to prevent significant transboundary harm under customary international law, are obligations erga omnes. In the treaty context, the Court recalls that the Framework Convention and Paris Agreement seek to protect the essential interest of all States in safeguarding the climate system, which benefits the international community as a whole. As such, the Court considers that the obligations of States under these treaties are obligations erga omnes partes. As a result, all States parties have a legal interest in the protection of the main mitigation obligations set forth in the climate change treaties and may invoke the responsibility of other States for failing to fulfil them.

Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2024, Dardour et al., International Renewable Energy Agency

Total installed costs for renewable power decreased by more than 10% for all technologies between 2023 and 2024, except for offshore wind, where they remained relatively stable, and bioenergy, where they increased by 16%. Nevertheless, the combination of capacity factors, market share, and financing costs led to a slight increase in the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for some technologies: solar PV by 0.6%, onshore wind by 3%, offshore wind by 4%, and bioenergy by 13%. Meanwhile, costs declined for concentrated solar power (-46%), geothermal (-16%), and hydropower (-2%). Renewables continue to prove themselves as the most cost-competitive source of new electricity generation. On an LCOE basis, 91% of newly commissioned utility-scale renewable capacity delivered power at a lower cost than the cheapest new fossil fuel-based alternative. In 2024, renewables helped avoid USD 467 billion in fossil fuel costs, reinforcing their role in enhancing energy security, economic resilience, and long-term affordability.

Seizing the moment of opportunity. Supercharging the new energy era of renewables, efficiency, and electrification, Achakulwisut et al., Climate Action Team in the Executive Office of the United Nations Secretary-General

The authors provide a high-level synthesis of the state of play of — and the economic imperative and opportunity for — accelerating the transition away from fossil fuels to clean energy, with a particular focus on the roles of renewables, electrification, and energy efficiency.

“Utility Bills Are Rising” Q2 2025 Update. Skyrocketing Utility Bills Amidst Scorching Summer Heat, Powerlines

The authors show that in Q2 2025, utilities requested or received approval for over $9 billion in rate increases, including approximately $7.3 billion in new requests and $1.7 billion in approved rate increases. This brings total requested and approved rate increases for the first half of 2025 to approximately $29 billion. These rate increases are not only significant in absolute terms; they also far surpass 2024 figures. In Q2 2024, requested and approved utility rate increases totaled approximately $5 billion, meaning Q2 2025 saw a near-doubling of requested and approved rate increases compared to the same period last year. Q1 and Q2 2024 had approximately $12 billion requested and approved rate increases, compared to 2025’s $29 billion.

Draft 2025 Energy Plan (New York), New York State Energy Research and Development Authority

The State Energy Plan provides broad policy direction that guides energy-related decision making within New York State. The Plan includes an outlook through 2040 with recommendations for meeting future energy demands that prioritize an energy system that is reliable, clean, and affordable while supporting economic development, equity, and a healthy environment.

Draft Climate and Nature Strategy Consultation, Stroud District Council (UK)

Gases like carbon dioxide and methane, released by human activities, are increasing in our atmosphere and causing rapid warming of our planet leading to big changes to our climate, weather, and nature. Our climate and nature strategy will help us reduce the carbon pollution created by Stroud District Council, and all those who live and work in Stroud District, to as close to zero as possible. We also want to make sure that we reduce the impact of our activities on plants and animals and the places they live. Many of the actions we need to put in place to slow down warming and reduce our impact on nature will also improve our standard of living and make our society fairer. Implementing our strategy to tackle the nature and climate emergencies will help us to create a better quality of life for everyone.

Changing the Game: Community-based strategies and climate mitigation, Redstone Strategy Group, Redstone Strategy Group/Arabella Advisors

The authors compile, for the first time, the direct, quantifiable carbon mitigation impacts of community-based climate work. The results are exciting: community-based strategies can yield meaningful mitigation impacts with strong returns on investment. Many of the efforts profiled in the United States and Canada will mitigate 1 to 8 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MTCO2e) by 2030, with some mitigating significantly more. The cost per effort is well under $1 of local philanthropic investment per MTCO2e mitigated through 2030. The authors analyze 15 case studies from the US and Canada to understand the carbon mitigation impact and return on investment (ROI) of community-based climate strategies. The efforts spanned state and local legislation; renewable energy development; supply-side strategies; and implementation efforts.

Extreme heat: the insurance fallouts, SwissRe Institute

Extreme heat poses a growing threat to the insurance industry, with property, specialty and Life and Health (L&H) business most exposed. It increases the risk of electrical outages and wildfire risk, and can damage and cause disruption to transport, water and energy infrastructure, thus driving up property and specialty claims. In L&H, heat-related health impacts can increase medical, life, and workers’ compensation claims, particularly among vulnerable and outdoor-working populations. Extreme heat can put additional stress on healthcare systems. Liability exposures may also rise as employers and institutions face legal risks for failing to mitigate heat-related harms.

Data Center Impacts in the West: Policy Solutions for Water and Energy Use, Western Resource Advocates

Data centers require tremendous amounts of energy — both for computing and cooling to protect the computer hardware contained within. If the projections of data center load growth from the region’s major utilities become reality, these new facilities in Arizona, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico and Utah could have annual water use of 21,600 acre-feet (7 billion gallons) by 2035. This amount of water serves the annual needs of up to 194,000 people. The authors present a summary of the electricity load forecast for data centers in the region along with the potential water impacts. Robust regulatory policies can protect customers, ensure water resources are conserved and spur investment in clean, innovative technologies. The author’s key recommendations are focused on three main categories: advancing clean energy, preserving scarce water resources, and protecting electricity customers.

Renewable Food. A Transformed and Renewable Food System is Now Possible, Paul Gilding, Cambridge Institute for Sustainability Leadership

The global food and agricultural system is about to undergo a major market disruption which will lead to a system transformation of major historical significance. The author argues that this unfolding disruption is driven by two converging forces: the collapse of large scale agriculture under mounting environmental pressures, and the rise of innovative food production technologies that offer cheaper, healthier, and more secure alternatives. The author highlights that industrial farming is reaching its physical and environmental limits. Climate change, water scarcity, soil degradation, and land constraints are combining to make the current system unsustainable and incapable of meeting projected demand, which is expected to rise by 35–56% by 2050. This will result in escalating food supply shocks, inflation, and geopolitical instability.

Methane Removal Under the Paris Agreement: A New Sabin Center White Paper, Romany Webb, Sabin Center for Climate Change Law, Columbia University

The author provides the first comprehensive analysis of methane removal under the Paris Agreement by exploring the role that atmospheric methane removal might play in achieving the goals of the Paris Agreement, whether parties to the Paris Agreement could rely on atmospheric methane removal as a climate change mitigation strategy under the Paris Agreement, and the potential for atmospheric methane removal projects to participate in the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism.

An Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on the Great Lakes, Wuebbles et al., Environmental Policy and Law Center

In 2019, leading university research scientists published a special assessment that examined the current and projected impacts of climate change on the Great Lakes and the surrounding region, drawing from an array of existing research. In this new 2025 update, the scholars are back to highlight new observations, research, and lessons learned over the past six years. They found that the 2019 assessment continues to be a sound, valid examination. Continuing to update, assess, and understand how climate change impacts the Great Lakes region is important to policymaking and advancing resilience. Since 1951, annual average air temperatures have increased by 2.9°F in the U.S. Great Lakes region. Moreover, since the 2019 report, the Midwest has already warmed another two-thirds as much (1.1°F) as it did in the decades before that (1.6°F), so warming is accelerating. Urban areas like Chicago may experience over 200 hours above 95°F by the 2030s, up from just 30 hours in recent years. This spike in extreme heat increases energy costs and endangers vulnerable residents.

The long march of electrification, Walter et al., Ember

Electricity demand has doubled every couple of decades for over a century, expanding across sectors and regions in inexorable waves. Electrification is often misconstrued as a recent phenomenon, driven chiefly by climate objectives and perceived as merely the first step on a long and uncertain path. But this framing misreads the history of electricity. Electrification began well over a century ago, in the 1880s, with the advent of electric lighting and the machine drive in industrial and household appliances. Since then, it has steadily expanded — into buildings, industry, and more recently, heating and transport. This process has rarely been smooth. Each wave of electrification has faced technological, political and economic resistance. Yet electricity’s core advantages — efficiency, flexibility and its ability to deliver higher quality energy services — have repeatedly proven decisive.

Statewide Survey, Californians and the Environment, M. Baldassare et al., Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC)

Californians reaffirmed their commitment to environmental protection in passing a $10 billion state climate bond with almost 60 percent support last November. The last election also led to federal environmental policy shifts that are at odds with the state’s policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and transition to renewable energy. The state government is at a crossroads in determining how much the taxpayers and consumers are willing and able to pay for these programs. Meanwhile, tragic events—starting with the Los Angeles wildfires in January and, most recently, the Texas floods in July—are wake-up calls about a lack of preparedness for the environmental changes underway.

Extreme Weather, Center for Countering Digital Hate

The authors measured a shift away from an Old Denial of warming and its causes, towards a New Denial centered on climate impacts, solutions and advocates. Misleading claims about extreme weather are part of the New Denial of climate impacts, preventing informed debate and risking lives during crisis events. Researchers identified 300 of the most-liked misleading posts about extreme weather made between April 1, 2023 and April 1, 2025, including 100 posts from Meta’s platforms, Facebook and Instagram, 100 from YouTube and 100 from X. Over three-quarters of these posts concerned wildfires and hurricanes, with the LA wildfires and Hurricane Helene ranking as the most discussed events. False and misleading claims targeted the actions of emergency responders, the causes of extreme weather events, and the distribution of disaster relief aid.

Beneath the curves: central banking in the era of environmental labour market disruption, Joseph Feyertag, The Centre for Economic Transition Expertise

Climate change, environmental degradation, and the accelerating transition to a low-carbon economy are reshaping global labor markets. These forces are altering both the demand for and supply of labor, with far-reaching implications for central banks. As institutions that closely monitor labor market dynamics to guide monetary policy, central banks will increasingly need to account for the disruptions caused by environmental pressures. The author addresses a critical gap in current analysis by exploring how environmental risks intersect with central banks’ mandates through the labor market. It aims to equip central banks with the insights needed to integrate these evolving risks into their policy frameworks and operational decisions.

Monitoring report: Emissions reduction. (New Zealand), i Climate Change Commission

This is the Commission’s second monitoring report on emissions reductions. The authors look at how well current emissions reductions policies and plans set the country up to meet its climate goals. The report tracks progress towards achievement of the first emissions budget (2022–2025), the second budget (2026–2030), the third budget (2031–2035) and the 2050 target. The country is making progress on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Total net emissions continued to fall over the last year measured. Emissions are on track for the first budget but will need more work – urgently – to set up for future reductions. The country is likely to achieve the first emissions budget (for 2022–2025) due to a combination of emissions reductions and changes to accounting methods. The second emissions budget (for 2026–2030) can be met but there are some areas of significant risk. Current plans are insufficient to meet the third emissions budget (for 2031–2035) and further action is required before the third emissions reduction plan. The Government needs to act ahead of the next emissions reduction plan (due in 2029) as many options that would make a difference will take time to take effect. There are also significant risks for meeting the 2050 target without further action.

Next-Gen Demand Response: Engaging Consumers, Meeting Energy Demand, Jennifer Kent, Residio Grid Services

The authors show that about 20% of smart thermostat households, totaling approximately four million US internet households, are enrolled in a demand response (DR) program. The authors note that 35% of today’s consumers report they barely noticed a difference when a DR event was called and another 34% said it was not as unpleasant as they were expecting. This experience is notable for the additional 13% of households with a smart thermostat who have participated in DR programs in the past but are no longer enrolled.

Economic Impact Analysis of Removing North Carolina’s Power Sector Interim Carbon Reduction Target, BW Research Partnership, NC Sustainable Energy Association

The authors analyzed the economic impact of North Carolina Senate Bill 266 (SB266), which removes the mandate that the NC Utilities Commission take all reasonable steps to achieve the interim power sector carbon reduction target of 70% by 2030. The authors analyze the impacts of SB266 on North Carolina’s employment, fiscal revenue, and energy generation capacity for the next decade.

Mapping Rights and Duties at the Intersection of Sports, Human Rights and the Climate Crisis, Cambridge Pro Bono Project, The Centre for Sport and Human Rights

The authors examine key human rights at risk in relation to the climate crisis and sport, and begins the process to identify the affected stakeholders – from athletes to local communities – and pinpoints the responsibilities of state and non-state actors across the global sports ecosystem to protect and respect the rights of affected stakeholders.

About New Research

Click here for the why and how of Skeptical Science New Research.

Suggestions

Please let us know if you’re aware of an article you think may be of interest for Skeptical Science research news, or if we’ve missed something that may be important. Send your input to Skeptical Science via our contact form.

Previous edition

The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.