Skeptical Science New Research for Week #32 2025
Posted on 7 August 2025 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Public concerns about solar geoengineering research in the United States, Buck et al., Communications Earth & Environment
Solar geoengineering is receiving increased private research funding at a time of growing social media speculation about government weather control. This can complicate public deliberation on solar geoengineering research. Using interviews (N = 64), focus groups (N = 10), and a national survey (N = 3076), we explore initial impressions of the US public on solar geoengineering research, including views on research and beliefs that atmospheric modification to combat global warming is currently ongoing. We find more opposition than support for research and a strong preference for research based in universities. Twenty percent of respondents believed it is partly or completely true that the US government is currently putting chemicals into the atmosphere to counteract global warming, and nearly half of respondents are unsure. We theorize belief in ongoing solar geoengineering not primarily as misinformation, but as para-environmentalism, representing a permutation of environmental concern that deserves further research and engagement.
[Bold ours. This belief is completely false.]
Uncertain Global Terrestrial Carbon Cycles Complicate the Predictability of Global Energy Transition Pathways, Qiu et al., Earth’s Future
The Paris Agreement aims to combat climate change by limiting global temperature rise to well below 2°C, with aspirations of reducing it to 1.5°C by the end of the century. However, debates are intensifying over the pace and direction of energy transitions needed to meet these goals. Our study highlights significant uncertainties in the terrestrial carbon cycle and their implications for mitigation efforts and energy transition pathways. We used the results from the TRENDY Model-Intercomparison Project to represent terrestrial carbon cycle simulations from 11 models using the Hector model, the simple climate model coupled to a multisector integrated assessment model, the Global Change Analysis Model. Focusing on scenarios limiting global warming to 1.5°C by the end of the century, we assessed the uncertainties in energy trajectories and associated carbon prices. Our results reveal that uncertainties in terrestrial carbon cycle projections meaningfully affect the pace of global energy transitions to meet climate policy goals. The models predict the phase-out of unabated coal power generation by 2050 ± 7 years. Additionally, ensemble simulations estimate a carbon price of 170.25 ± 38.84 $/tCO2e in 2010$ by the end of the century. Our findings highlight the critical need to refine models and integrate updated data to improve the reliability of carbon cycle projections and guide effective climate policy development. Specifically, enhancing the representation of the terrestrial carbon cycle in integrated assessment models is essential. Addressing these uncertainties is crucial for informed decision-making and effective implementation of strategies to achieve long-term climate objectives.
Predicted expansion of beaver pond distribution in Arctic Alaska, 1910–2090, Tape & Speed, Environmental Research Letters
Ecosystem engineering by beavers is a nascent disturbance in the Arctic tundra, appearing in the 1970s in western Alaska and since expanding deeper into tundra regions. Evidence from modeling and observations indicates that beaver ponds act as biophysical oases, and we anticipate myriad changes as these disturbances are constructed along tundra streams, sloughs, and lake outlets. We used over 11 000 mapped beaver pond locations in Arctic Alaska and their climatic, geographic, and environmental attributes to understand (1) which of those attributes control the distribution of beaver ponds, and, if temperature is a factor, (2) how beaver pond distribution will change under future climate scenarios. Of the variables used in the ensemble modeling approach, mean annual temperature was the most important variable in determining beaver pond locations, with pond occurrences more likely in warmer locales (>−2 °C). The distance to water was also important in determining beaver pond locations, as expected, with higher likelihood of ponds closer to water features. Lowland topographic variables were also relevant in determining the distribution of beaver ponds. Under the current climate, beaver ponds are widespread in most of western Alaska, matching the predicted extent of potential occupancy, with the exception of areas furthest from treeline, implying possible dispersal lags or other factors. By 2050, under future climate scenarios (RCP8.5; 2090 for RCP6.0), the entire North Slope of Alaska, which currently has no beaver ponds, is predicted to be suitable for beaver ponds, comparable to western Alaska in 2016. The vast extent of future beaver engineering in tundra regions will require reenvisioning the typical tundra stream ecosystems of northern Alaska, northern Canada, northern Europe, and northern Asia to include more extensive wetlands, routine disturbances, permafrost thaw, and other features of these nascent oases that are not fully understood.
Erasing the evidence: United States climate rollbacks and the implications for public health, Jacobs & Khan, PLOS
The health effects of climate-driven disasters are well-documented. Heatwaves, wildfires, floods, and hurricanes are associated with respiratory and cardiovascular disease, infectious disease outbreaks, mental health crises, and traumatic injuries. Disruptions to healthcare delivery, electricity, and clean water access compound these impacts. The elimination of tools designed to monitor and forecast these events directly impairs public health systems’ ability to prepare and respond.
From this week’s government/NGO section:
US Clean Energy Manufacturing Investment Update: Trump + 6 months, Turner et al., Environmental Studies, Wellesley College
Since Donald Trump took office on January 20, 2025, newly announced investments in clean energy manufacturing projects have slowed dramatically, while the number of projects that have been paused, canceled, or closed has skyrocketed. Projects are being paused, cancelled, and closed at a rate 6 times more than during the same period in 2024 and 30 times more than during the same period in 2023. This marks a dramatic reversal from the first six months of 2024. During that period, 54 new projects adding up to $15.9 billion in capital investment and 25,942 new jobs were announced. In comparison, 8 projects adding up to $4.1 billion in capital investment and 3,820 jobs were paused, canceled, or closed during the first six months of 2024.
How Big Oil is Fueling the Insurance Crisis. And Why State Policymakers Should Act, Center for Climate Integrity
The authors explain how state and local policymakers across the country have the power to push for a fairer system — one in which the fossil fuel companies most responsible for the climate crisis pay their fair share. The authors highlight how worsening extreme weather is destabilizing insurance markets across the country, driving up the cost of living for millions of Americans and threatening a broader financial crisis in the banking and real estate industries. They explore legislative efforts in states like Hawaii, California and Connecticut to hold the fossil fuel industry accountable for the growing economic consequences of climate change.
196 articles in 69 journals by 1163 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Attributing future changes in terrestrial evapotranspiration: The combined impacts of climate change, rising CO2, and land use change, Hou et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110747
Concurrent atmospheric heatwaves intensify marine heatwaves through air-sea heat flux change in the Mediterranean Sea, Paredes-Fortuny et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02633-2
From Sea to Summit: Investigating the Explicit Role of SST Increase for Regional and High-Altitude Climates in New Zealand, Kropa? et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2025jd043572
Increasing Heat Pile-Up Events in the Southeast Indian Ocean Linked to Multi-Year La Niña Conditions, Li et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl116678
Influence of Antarctic amplification on Extreme temperature in the Southern Hemisphere, Zhu et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104993
Recent Warming of the Southern Hemisphere Subtropical Lower Stratosphere and Antarctic Ozone Healing, Sweeney et al., AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2025av001737
Roles of External Forcing and Internal Variability in Winter Precipitation Changes Over Central Asia, Yao et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006064
Shifting hotspot of tropical cyclone clusters in a warming climate, Fu et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-025-02397-9
Subsurface manifestation of marine heat waves in the southwestern Indian Ocean, Welch et al., Ocean Science Open Access 10.5194/os-21-1695-2025
Weakened relationship between November Barents-Kara sea ice and January Arctic Oscillation after the mid-1990s, Zheng et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access 10.1038/s41612-025-01186-7
Observations of climate change, effects
Anthropogenic warming drives earlier wildfire season onset in California, Madakumbura et al., Science Advances 10.1126/sciadv.adt2041
Attribution of the Increased Intensity of Upper-Level Hadley Circulation Under Climate Change, Sun et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl115984
Forced Changes in the North Atlantic Storm Track Over the Last Millennium, Hess & Chemke, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl115894
Increasing Trends in Soil Heat Extremes Following Flash Drought Outbreaks, Jing et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl116316
Intensified extreme cold surges in northern East Asia and the associated changes in atmospheric circulation under climate change, DAI et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.07.003
Introduction to the Special Collection on the Arctic Ocean’s Changing Beaufort Gyre, Timmermans et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2025jc023013
Investigating air temperature changes in Bhubaneswar city over 123 years from 1901 to 2023, Das et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-025-12746-5
Polar winter climate change: strong local effects from sea ice loss, widespread consequences from warming seas, Naakka et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-25-8127-2025
Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Heatwaves Over Africa During 1991–2024 and Its Impact on Population, Lim Kam Sian et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70043
World Cultural Heritage sites are under climate stress and no emissions mitigation pathways can uniformly protect them, Chen et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02603-8
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
AI-Driven Weather Forecasts to Accelerate Climate Change Attribution of Heatwaves, Jiménez?Esteve et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006453
The changing role of operational meteorology towards a transdisciplinary approach to future weather and climate services, Davies et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rsta.2024.0535
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Effect of Climate Change-Induced Tropical Cyclone Track Shift on Sedimentology in the East China Coastal Ocean, Xu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2024jc022245
Influence of Relative Sea Surface Warming on Vertical Wind Shear Trend in the Western North Pacific Basin, Liu & Wu, International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70055
Projected tropical cyclone genesis and seasonality changes in the Northern Hemisphere under a warming climate, Widana Arachchige et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access 10.1038/s41612-025-01170-1
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024
Correction of sea surface biases in the NEMO ocean general circulation model using neural networks, Storto et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-18-4789-2025
Drivers of CMIP Tropical Pacific Warming Pattern Diversity, Danielli et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef005938
How Well Does the Climate Model Simulate the North Pacific Blocking Dynamics?, Hwang & Son, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd044322
Impact of modulating surface heat flux through sea ice leads on Arctic sea ice in EC-Earth3 in different climates, Tian et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-19-2751-2025
Understanding the Intricacies of Model Biases in Storm-Related Extreme Precipitation Using CMIP6, Li et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl115365
Cryosphere & climate change
A random-forest-derived 35-year snow phenology record reveals climate trends in the Yukon River Basin, Pan et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-19-2797-2025
Can Arctic Sea Ice Melting Lead to More Summertime Heat Extremes?, Wu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl116668
Causes of the Abrupt and Sustained 2016–2023 Antarctic Sea-Ice Decline: A Sea Ice–Ocean Model Perspective, Kusahara & Tatebe, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl115256
Changes in Sedimentary Organic Carbon Compositions in the Mackenzie Trough Over Recent Centuries: Insights Into Permafrost Thawing in the Canadian Arctic, Kim et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2025jc022652
Connecting Tibetan Plateau Snow Change With Arctic Sea-Ice, Zhang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl116351
Enhanced basal melting in winter and spring: seasonal ice–ocean interactions at the Ekström Ice Shelf, East Antarctica, Zeising et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-19-2837-2025
Evolution of glacial lakes in Southern Patagonian Icefield between 1986 and 2023, Carrión et al., Frontiers in Earth Science Open Access 10.3389/feart.2025.1534451
Minimal Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the Last 20 Years, Consistent With Internal Climate Variability, England et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl116175
Polar winter climate change: strong local effects from sea ice loss, widespread consequences from warming seas, Naakka et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-25-8127-2025
Preparing for Uncertain Water Futures: An Analysis of Intrannual Snowpack Processes in the Southern Sierra Nevada Under Climate Change, Greenspan et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl115768
Satellite-derived steric height in the Southern Ocean: trends, variability, and climate drivers, Cocks et al., Ocean Science Open Access 10.5194/os-21-1609-2025
Satellite-derived steric height in the Southern Ocean: trends, variability, and climate drivers, Cocks et al., Ocean Science Open Access 10.5194/os-21-1609-2025
Turbulent vertical heat flux under Antarctic on-shelf sea ice intensified by the Amundsen Sea Undercurrent, Wang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02598-2
Sea level & climate change
A Preface to the Special Collection on Regional Sea Level Change and Society, Stammer et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2025jc023124
Sea level budget in the China Seas over 2005–2023, Wang et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104992
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Dansgaard–Oeschger Events under Global Cooling without Continental Ice Sheets, Curtis & Fedorov, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0377.1
Exploring the feedbacks of vegetation and carbon cycle processes to climate changes under thermal events in Northeast China by reconstructing Eocene climate and atmospheric CO2 levels, Kang et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105009
Mid-Miocene warmth pushed fossil coral calcification to physiological limits in high-latitude reefs, Reuter et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02559-9
Warmer shallow Atlantic during deglaciation and early Holocene due to weaker overturning circulation, Lu et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-025-01751-y
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
Adaptive phenotypic evolution of Skeletonema costatum to ocean acidification and warming with trade-offs from a multi-year outdoor experiment, Wu et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 10.1098/rspb.2025.1198
Asymmetric Micro-Evolutionary Responses in a Warming World: Heat-Driven Adaptation Enhances Metal Tolerance in a Planktonic Rotifer, but Not Vice Versa, Han et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70347
Characterizing climate- and fire-driven habitat vulnerability for an old-forest species, Goldberg et al., Landscape Ecology Open Access 10.1007/s10980-025-02171-4
Climate change alters the radial growth responses of P. schrenkiana and J. jarkendensis to climate extremes in the Eastern Pamirs, Yang et al., Dendrochronologia 10.1016/j.dendro.2025.126362
Climate Change Drives Bathymetric Shifts in Taxonomic and Trait Diversity of Deep-Sea Benthic Communities, Rakka et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70407
Climate differentially impacts ticks infected and uninfected with Borrelia burgdorferi, Broughton et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.ads2181
Climate-driven patterns of global tree longevity, Gao et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02609-2
Contrasting biological production trends over land and ocean, Zhang et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02375-1
Deforestation Could Push Amazonia Close to a Tipping Point Under Future Climate Change, Hajdu et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl108304
Dispersal Ability Reduces Thermal Specialization and Prevents Climate-Driven Extinctions in a Neotropical Rainforest, Chaves et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70399
Divergent phenological responses of soil microorganisms and plants to climate warming, Wang et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-025-01738-9
Examining post-drought recovery in three sub-Mediterranean species: Some trees not affected while some never recover, Krajnc et al., Dendrochronologia Open Access 10.1016/j.dendro.2025.126378
Future Climate-Driven Ecological Disruption in a Network of Marine Protected Areas on Canada’s East Coast, Irvine et al., Conservation Letters Open Access 10.1111/conl.13123
Global Change Affects Large Herbivore Forage Biomass Through Gradual Successional Shifts and Abrupt Disturbances, Farr et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70375
Global divergence in plant and mycorrhizal fungal diversity hotspots, van Galen et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-60106-8
High Ambient Temperatures Are Associated With Reduced Foraging Capacity in an Equatorial Mammal, the Banded Mongoose (Mungos mungo), Khera et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.71872
Hotter winter-spring droughts accelerated the growth decline of marginal pedunculate oak (Quercus robur) populations in dry sites from Romania, Nechita & Camarero, Dendrochronologia Open Access 10.1016/j.dendro.2025.126369
Impact of compound drought–heat stress on Mongolian Scots pine growth: A Copula-based analysis across precipitation gradients, Du et al., Dendrochronologia 10.1016/j.dendro.2025.126346
Increased melt from Greenland’s most active glacier fuels enhanced coastal productivity, Wood et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02599-1
Interactive effects of ocean acidification and warming disrupt calcification and microbiome composition in bryozoans, Figuerola et al., Communications Biology Open Access 10.1038/s42003-025-08524-8
Interactive Effects of Warming and Competition Do Not Limit the Adaptive Plastic Response to Drought in Populations of a Mediterranean Plant, Ramos?Muñoz et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70363
Land Cover Constrains Range Shifts in Northern Iberian Bird Species Under Climate Change Scenarios, Cardador et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.71863
Local Environmental Filtering and Frequency of Marine Heatwaves Influence Decadal Trends in Coral Composition, Dey et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access 10.1111/ddi.70043
Long-Term Temporal Divergence in Post-Drought Resilience Decline Between Deciduous and Evergreen Tree Species, Marchand et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70330
Multispecies conservation corridors in China: For climate change adaptation, WANG et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.07.009
Ocean acidification interacts with low salinity and phosphorus limitation to modulate growth, photosynthesis, and physiology of mass-cultivated Gracilariopsis lemaneiformis, Wang et al., Journal of Applied Phycology 10.1007/s10811-025-03592-z
Predicted expansion of beaver pond distribution in Arctic Alaska, 1910–2090, Tape & Speed, Environmental Research Letters Open Access 10.1088/1748-9326/adeba2
Predicting climate-related compositional shifts in nut-producing species that are important for bears during hyperphagia, Pérez-Girón et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2025.1624612
Reconsidering space-for-time substitution in climate change ecology, Evans et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02392-0
The Ecological Impacts of Dry and Hot Shocks in the Land of Midnight Sun, Gu & Gao, Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70391
Smaller plants in warmer water could have implications for future Kelp forests, Wernberg et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-025-13950-z
The diel niche of brown bears: constraints on adaptive capacity in human-modified landscapes, Donatelli et al., Ecography Open Access 10.1002/ecog.07979
The Ecological Impacts of Dry and Hot Shocks in the Land of Midnight Sun, Gu & Gao, Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70391
Trends in the “flowering” periods of Juniperus species (Cupressaceae) in the province of Malaga (western Mediterranean) during the last six decades (1971-2023), Recio & Díaz-García, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110712
Turning up the heat: Differential responses of blue mussels (Mytilus edulis) in Atlantic Canada to thermal stress, Clarke et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107356
Warmer Is Deadlier: A Meta-Analysis Reveals Increasing Temperatures Accentuate Disease Effects on Fisheries Hosts, Tomamichel et al., Ecology Letters Open Access 10.1111/ele.70156
Warmer springs advance bud phenology in sugar maple at its northern range limits in Canada, Gao et al., Journal of Forestry Research 10.1007/s11676-025-01899-8
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
Changes in Sedimentary Organic Carbon Compositions in the Mackenzie Trough Over Recent Centuries: Insights Into Permafrost Thawing in the Canadian Arctic, Kim et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2025jc022652
Climate and vegetation jointly determine the interannual variation of net ecosystem CO2 fluxes over 12 years in a restored coastal wetland, Zhang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110760
Contrasting biological production trends over land and ocean, Zhang et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02375-1
Contribution of lake littoral zones to the continental carbon budget, Grasset et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-025-01739-8
Drainage Ditches (“Hot Spots”) and Storms (“Hot Moments”) Define Aquatic Greenhouse Gas (CO2, CH4, N2O) Emissions From the Land-to-Ocean Aquatic Continuum, Wells et al., Open Access 10.22541/essoar.173757508.83822189/v1
Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Potential of Temperate Fen Paludicultures, Bockermann et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70385
Higher CH4 production in permafrost while oxidation prevails in the active layer: Insights from a forest?wetland ecotone in Northeast China, Dong et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.04.005
Impact of plant succession on greenhouse gas fluxes during the transition of a flooded fen peatland, Antonijevi? et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02607-4
Implications for the Missing South Asian Carbon Sink: Hydrologic Coupling of Water and Carbon Balances in a Tropical Catchment, Senarathne et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2025jg008839
Lake carbon loss driven by changed microbial carbon utilization through increased anthropogenic land-use intensity, Guo et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02587-5
Mapping the global coastal ocean with AI: Artificial neural networks can help better constrain the global carbon cycle in shallow seas, Roobaert, Science 10.1126/science.adx7826
Methane Emissions From Unplugged Abandoned Oil and Gas Wells in Louisiana, USA, Driscoll et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2024jd042486
Methane, carbon dioxide, and nitrous oxide emissions from two clear-water and two turbid-water urban ponds in Brussels (Belgium), Bauduin et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-22-3785-2025
Newly established forests dominated global carbon sequestration change induced by land cover conversions, Peng et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-61956-y
Seasonality in Diffusive Methane Emissions Differs Between Bog Microforms, Jentzsch et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70372
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
Spatio-temporal mapping reveals changes in soil organic carbon stocks across the contiguous United States since 1955, Yang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02605-6
State-wide California 2020 carbon dioxide budget estimated with OCO-2 and OCO-3 satellite data, Johnson et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-25-8475-2025
The Hidden Carbon Cost of Boreal Wildfires: Rethinking Emissions From Belowground Combustion in Siberian Larch Forests, Ali & Xu, Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70389
Thermal adaptation of respiration in terrestrial ecosystems alleviates carbon loss, Xu et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02377-z
Tracking the future of global N2O gas emissions with data-driven forecasts, Önder, Journal of Atmospheric and Solar 10.1016/j.jastp.2025.106577
Uncertain Global Terrestrial Carbon Cycles Complicate the Predictability of Global Energy Transition Pathways, Qiu et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005283
Widespread underestimation of rain-induced soil carbon emissions from global drylands, Nguyen et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-025-01754-9
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
CO2 sequestration in geological formations: Insights into mineral reactions and reservoir dynamics, Nazari et al., Earth 10.1016/j.earscirev.2025.105200
How to design better incentives for carbon capture and storage in the United States, Olmstead et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2404677122
Limited carbon sequestration potential from global ecosystem restoration, Tölgyesi et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-025-01742-z
Public preferences for local carbon capture and utilization implementation: A French-German comparison, Schomakers et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114781
Quantitative matching of CO2 amounts via seismic attributes in the Sleipner field, Cheong et al., SSRN Electronic Journal Open Access 10.2139/ssrn.4244020
Scientific literature on carbon dioxide removal revealed as much larger through AI-enhanced systematic mapping, Lück et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-61485-8
Decarbonization
Accidental adversaries in renewable energy projects: A system dynamics perspective on conflicts and procedural justice with local communities, Salon et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104226
Assesment of the strategic transition from gas to electric heat pumps and policy implications for power reserve margins in South Korea, Chae et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114755
Climate impacts on the supply–demand balance of China’s wind–solar energy system based on power grid transmission during the summer peak-load period, ZHAO et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.07.008
Cost Development and Cost Drivers in UK Offshore Wind Farms, Lorentzen & Osmundsen, Wind Energy Open Access 10.1002/we.70048
Critical minerals lists for low-carbon transitions: Reviewing their structure, objectives, and limitations, Deberdt et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104252
Direct reuse of the end-of-use structural steel: Assessing the economic and carbon reduction effects, Lee et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology 10.1111/jiec.70044
Global wood harvest is sufficient for climate-friendly transitions to timber cities, Yayla et al., Nature Sustainability Open Access 10.1038/s41893-025-01605-w
Lithium-ion battery recycling relieves the threat to material scarcity amid China’s electric vehicle ambitions, Zhang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-61481-y
Single junction CsPbBr3 solar cell coupled with electrolyzer for solar water splitting, Kim et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-58980-3
Solar and battery can reduce energy costs and provide affordable outage backup for US households, Sun et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-025-01821-w
Supercapacitors: An Emerging Energy Storage System, Iqbal et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research Open Access 10.1002/aesr.202400412
The limits of energy conservation: Why doubling current energy efficiency progress is no easy feat, Belaïd, Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104253
Watt’s the risk?: Public understanding of battery usage and storage in the United States, Segrè Cohen & Bunquin Bunquin, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104220
Geoengineering climate
Comparing future projections of warm spells and their characteristics under climate change and stratospheric aerosol injection in CESM2 and UKESM1, Glade et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1581305
Enhanced Rock Weathering Altered Soil Organic Carbon Fluxes in a Plant Trial, Boito et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70373
Governing novel climate interventions in rapidly changing oceans, Morrison et al., Science 10.1126/science.adq0174
Public concerns about solar geoengineering research in the United States, Buck et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02595-5
Removal of dissolved inorganic carbon from seawater for climate mitigation: potential marine ecosystem impacts, Hooper et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1528951
Aerosols
Regional aerosol warming enhanced by the diurnal cycle of low cloud, Chang et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-025-01740-1
Climate change communications & cognition
Climate Privilege: Defensive Disbelief in Climate Change Science, Munro et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102714
Embodying the impact of climate change for decision makers using augmented reality (AR): A case study of climate-threatened cultural heritage sites in Western Alaska, Verstraete et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104178
From distress to action? – A three-wave longitudinal study of climate change distress, pro-environmental behavior, and coping strategies among Finnish adolescents, Veijonaho et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102676
Globalization, populism, and climate skepticism: untangling varieties and pathways, Kim et al., Environmental Sociology 10.1080/23251042.2025.2536342
How publics in small-island states view climate change and international responses to it, Mildenberger et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2415324122
Shifting expectations – how the responsibility for the habitability of the planet is shifting, Schweiger et al., Environmental Sociology 10.1080/23251042.2025.2542003
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
A comprehensive review of urban agriculture in a changing climate: Technological innovations and policy frameworks, Gao et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100732
A managed boreal forest landscape in northern Sweden is a persistent net carbon sink despite large inter-annual weather anomalies, Chi et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110758
Contribution of aboveground and belowground biomass of Robinia pseudoacacia trees to total plant carbon stocks in a young agroforestry system, Martin-Blangy et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110749
Enhancing climate-smart agriculture: stakeholder contributions and cooperation in establishing a policy environment in developing countries, Lawani et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2025.2543020
Experimental evaluation of agroclimatic requirements of peach cultivars (Prunus persica L.) and their adaptation to future climate scenarios in warm climate regions, Borgini et al., Euro 10.1007/s41207-025-00900-4
Grazing reverses climate-induced soil carbon gains on the Tibetan Plateau, Ren et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-62332-6
Legitimising different futures: Swedish forest management as a climate change mitigation measure, Olsson & Johansson, Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104174
Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Adapting water resource systems to a changing future: challenges for UK hydrology in the 21st century, Hall & Murgatroyd, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rsta.2024.0278
Assessment of Future Precipitation Changes in Mediterranean Climate Regions From CMIP6 Ensemble, Tarín?Carrasco et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70039
Anthropogenic warming drives earlier wildfire season onset in California, Madakumbura et al., Science Advances 10.1126/sciadv.adt2041
Attribution of the Increased Intensity of Upper-Level Hadley Circulation Under Climate Change, Sun et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl115984
Forced Changes in the North Atlantic Storm Track Over the Last Millennium, Hess & Chemke, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl115894
Increasing Trends in Soil Heat Extremes Following Flash Drought Outbreaks, Jing et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl116316
Intensified extreme cold surges in northern East Asia and the associated changes in atmospheric circulation under climate change, DAI et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.07.003
Introduction to the Special Collection on the Arctic Ocean’s Changing Beaufort Gyre, Timmermans et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans 10.1029/2025jc023013
Investigating air temperature changes in Bhubaneswar city over 123 years from 1901 to 2023, Das et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-025-12746-5
Polar winter climate change: strong local effects from sea ice loss, widespread consequences from warming seas, Naakka et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-25-8127-2025
Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Heatwaves Over Africa During 1991–2024 and Its Impact on Population, Lim Kam Sian et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70043
Hydrology for impact: building partnerships, blending knowledge and bracing for climate change, Orr et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rsta.2024.0290
Hydrology in the 21st century: challenges in science, to policy and practice, Fowler et al., Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rsta.2024.0299
Improving event-based methods for modelling flood risk in a variable and non-stationary climate, Nathan, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences Open Access 10.1098/rsta.2024.0292
Preparing for Uncertain Water Futures: An Analysis of Intrannual Snowpack Processes in the Southern Sierra Nevada Under Climate Change, Greenspan et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl115768
Uncertainty in Projected Precipitation Change and Its Dependency on Aggregation to the River-Basin Scale, Aalbers et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2025jd043768
Climate change economics
Revealing the interplay between decarbonisation, circularity, and cost-effectiveness in building energy renovation, Zhang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-62442-1
Trade facilitation and global warming: based on cross-country panel data, Jiang, Frontiers in Environmental
Climate change mitigation public policy research
Assessing the real implications for CO2 as generation from renewables increases, Suri et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-59800-4
Cherry-picking climate science: how is the GST technical dialogue reflected in the final GST outcome?, Herrera et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2025.2539135
Deliberative design choices and their implications – dilemmas unveiled from the first Danish Citizens’ Assembly on Climate, Agger & Egmose, Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2025.2540581
Explaining climate change policy inertia: Policymaker perspectives on building energy efficiency in the United Kingdom, Pearson, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104243
Greenhouse gas emissions reduction strategies that maximize portfolio-wide life cycle cost reduction, resilience, and environmental justice benefits, Solana et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1577078
How media discourse constructs the role of new energy policies in addressing energy challenges: A comparative analysis of China and the U.S., Chen & Liu, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114807
Not your grandpa’s energy system? Fossil fuel inheritances in the decarbonization of industrial geographies, Kinchy & Lehman, Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104238
Perception of global norm of government climate action and support for domestic climate policies, Tam & Chan, Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102694
Public support for carbon taxes varies across countries and policy design must consider the national context, Bulut & Samuel, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02562-0
Sparking adaptation: The politics of reforming effective interconnection regimes in Massachusetts and New York, Chelminski, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104125
Uncertain Global Terrestrial Carbon Cycles Complicate the Predictability of Global Energy Transition Pathways, Qiu et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005283
Will the European Union’s emission trading system drive industrial steam electrification?, Ruiz Irusta & Pavi? Pavi? Pavi?, Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114759
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
A fair-for-all perspective for climate migrants and destinations, Cilali et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1603446
Beyond the Floodplain: Integrating Probabilities and Storylines to Explore Regional Uncertain Direct and Cascading Climate Risks in Multi-Sectoral Systems, Buskop et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006499
Challenge accepted – identifying barriers and facilitating climate change adaptation in spatial development across planning boundaries, sectors and planning levels, Juschten et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104152
Climate change adaptation technology development of key socioeconomic sectors and ecosystem in China, XU et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.07.006
Climate risk assessment in Slovakia: Key findings on urban areas, Farkas, Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102561
Dynamic climate graph network and adaptive climate action strategy for climate risk assessment and low-carbon policy responses, Zhou et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1576447
Global determinants of coastal migration under climate change, Duijndam et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-59199-y
Integrating the resist–accept–direct framework into natural resource decision-making processes for climate adaptation, Sesser et al., Conservation Biology 10.1111/cobi.70116
Social capital as a policy catalyst: Enhancing municipal investment in climate risk reduction and adaptation, Neudörfer & Valdivieso, Global Environmental Change 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103041
Systematic review of flood resilience strategies in Lagos Metropolis: pathways toward the 2030 sustainable development agenda, Orimoogunje & Aniramu, Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1603798
The role of climate and urbanization in compound meteorological event exposure in China’s megacities, Chu et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100722
‘We do in the spirit of togetherness’: stories of collective resilience, wellbeing and climate (im)mobility in the Pacific, Mafile’o et al., Climate and Development Open Access 10.1080/17565529.2025.2524421
Climate change impacts on human health
Erasing the evidence: United States climate rollbacks and the implications for public health, Jacobs & Khan, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000667
Recent trends in research on the health impacts of climate change in the Philippines (2018–2023): a scoping review, De Guzman et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1594793
The social, technological, economic, and political roles of information and communication technologies in extreme heat adaptation in urban Southeast Asia, Castro & Delina, Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102556
Climate change & geopolitics
Governing novel climate interventions in rapidly changing oceans, Morrison et al., Science 10.1126/science.adq0174
Safeguarding US-China climate cooperation, Dai, Science 10.1126/science.adx5182
United Nations Environment Assembly attendees underestimate public willingness to contribute to climate action, Fang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02536-2
Climate change impacts on human culture
The missing link: democracy, education, and carbon emissions, Bromley et al., Environmental Politics Open Access 10.1080/09644016.2025.2538360
“Moments of Change” and Low-Carbon Behaviors: A Multidisciplinary, Systematic Review, Whitmarsh et al., WIREs Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.70014
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Perspectives on future climate research: a preface to the special collection from the World Climate Research Programme 2023 Open Science Conference, Stammer & Cleugh, Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1644272
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
US Clean Energy Manufacturing Investment Update: Trump + 6 months, Turner et al., Environmental Studies, Wellesley College
Since Donald Trump took office on January 20, 2025, newly announced investments in clean energy manufacturing projects have slowed dramatically, while the number of projects that have been paused, canceled, or closed has skyrocketed. Projects are being paused, cancelled, and closed at a rate 6 times more than during the same period in 2024 and 30 times more than during the same period in 2023. This marks a dramatic reversal from the first six months of 2024. During that period, 54 new projects adding up to $15.9 billion in capital investment and 25,942 new jobs were announced. In comparison, 8 projects adding up to $4.1 billion in capital investment and 3,820 jobs were paused, canceled, or closed during the first six months of 2024.
Flexible Data Centers and the Grid: Lower Costs, Higher Emissions?, Knittel et al., Massachusetts Institute of Technology Energy Initiative
Data centers are among the fastest-growing electricity consumers, raising concerns about their impact on grid operations and decarbonization goals. Their temporal flexibility—the ability to shift workloads over time—offers a source of demand-side flexibility. The authors model power systems in three U.S. regions: Mid-Atlantic, Texas, and Western Electricity Coordinating Council, under varying flexibility levels. We evaluate flexibility’s effects on grid operations, investment, system costs, and emissions. Across all scenarios, flexible data centers reduce costs by shifting load from peak to off-peak hours, flattening net demand, and supporting renewable and baseload resources. This load shifting facilitates renewable integration while improving the utilization of existing baseload capacity. As a result, the emissions impact depends on which effect dominates. Higher renewable penetration increases the emissions-reduction potential of data center flexibility, while lower shares favor baseload generation and may raise emissions. Our findings highlight the importance of aligning data center flexibility with renewable deployment and regional conditions.
Electricity Mid-Year Update 2025, Çam et al., International Energy Agency
Despite a slowdown in global economic growth prospects, the world’s electricity consumption increased strongly in the first half of 2025, driven by rising demand from industry, appliances, cooling, data centers and electrification. At the same time, electricity supply from renewables, natural gas and nuclear continues to grow, with all set to reach new milestones.
US EV Fast Charging — Q2 2025, Paren
he authors see a sharp rebound in new port deployments, continued reliability gains, and rising charger speeds across the U.S. fast charging landscape. Despite Tesla’s declining market share, total infrastructure is expanding at record pace, driven by Charging 2.0 players. The authors also track utilization shifts, NACS adoption gaps, and evolving pricing strategies as the industry scales for accelerating EV demand.
Bridging the Flood Insurance Gap: Addressing the Underinsurance Crisis in the United States, Neptune Flood
The authors explore the extent of the nation’s flood underinsurance crisis. The findings are clear: underinsurance is not limited to those without a policy. Nearly 85% of all at-risk single-family homes in the U.S. lack sufficient coverage, facing thousands of dollars of uninsured loss annually, underscoring the financial risk homeowners carry.
Methane Tracking in Tokyo Bay: Emissions from LNG Infrastructure in Japan, Wilson et al., Oilfield Witness, Friends of the Earth Japan and Oil Change International
The authors document significant methane emissions from LNG infrastructure along Tokyo Bay and highlights the serious climate risks across the LNG supply chain.
Battery energy storage impact and benefits assessments in MISO, Eugenio Butler, American Clean Power
The author analyzes the benefits of energy storage buildout on regional grid reliability and electricity costs in Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO). Batteries play a multifaceted role within wholesale power markets, including contributions to reliability, system flexibility, ancillary services and a synergistic relationship with both renewable and thermal generation resources. The author illustrates the role that batteries play within the MISO region and examines their affect on MISO power markets.
Changing the Game. Community-based strategies and climate mitigation, Redstone Strategy Group, The MacArthur Foundation, Marin Community Foundation, and Equation Campaign
The authors present a comprehensive account of the benefits and impacts of community-based climate strategies. They both describe how community-based strategies can lead to broader climate impact, drawing on specific campaigns as examples, and quantify the carbon mitigation of those efforts. Further, they describe the additional benefits of community-based strategies, beyond specific mitigation numbers, to elements such as durability, strengthening national policy efforts, and innovating new ideas that can be scaled.
Heat, work, and worry: How is outdoor employment linked to concern about extreme heat?, Lee et al., Yale Program on Climate Change Communication
The authors analyze the relationship between the proportion of outdoor employment and worry about extreme heat across mainland U.S. counties and states using data from the U.S. Census and county-level estimates for heat worry in the 48 contiguous U.S. states and the District of Columbia. “Outdoor workers” are defined as individuals in occupations that regularly involve working outside — such as agriculture, construction, transportation, maintenance, and emergency services — using classifications from the “Too Hot to Work” project by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS). Importantly, this geographic-level analysis shows how the level of worry about extreme heat varies among counties with larger and smaller proportions of outdoor workers in the U.S. It does not directly measure whether outdoor workers themselves are more or less worried about extreme heat.
Radical retrofit. Supported by Adapting cities for a resilient future, Economist Impac, JLL
The authors highlight how retrofitting and adaptive reuse of buildings can transform urban landscapes into climate-resilient, people-centric environments. From optimizing underused space to creating healthier, more engaging workplaces, the authors explore how cities—both established and emerging—are navigating the retrofit imperative. Drawing on a survey of senior leaders in the built environment sectors across 12 cities globally and a wide range of voices including owners, investors and tenants, the authors unpack the key drivers, barriers, and solutions shaping retrofit progress. With a five-year roadmap for action, this research charts bold, practical pathways to accelerate retrofitting globally.
How Big Oil is Fueling the Insurance Crisis. And Why State Policymakers Should Act, Center for Climate Integrity
The authors explain how state and local policymakers across the country have the power to push for a fairer system — one in which the fossil fuel companies most responsible for the climate crisis pay their fair share. The authors highlight how worsening extreme weather is destabilizing insurance markets across the country, driving up the cost of living for millions of Americans and threatening a broader financial crisis in the banking and real estate industries. They explore legislative efforts in states like Hawaii, California and Connecticut to hold the fossil fuel industry accountable for the growing economic consequences of climate change.
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