Skeptical Science New Research for Week #43 2025

Evaluation and Projection of Extreme Rainfall from a Large Ensemble of High–Resolution Regional Climate Models in Australia, Jayaweera et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100818

Hourly Precipitation Intensities at 4-km Resolution Show Statistically Significant Increasing Trends From 1991 to 2022 in the CONUS-404 Hydroclimate Reanalysis, Guilloteau et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl117588

Impact of climate change on natural hazard-induced disasters in Latin America and the Caribbean, Aizaga et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1644772

The salinization of the Mekong Delta: major drivers, coping strategies, and new hopes from ecosystem-based approaches, Loc & Park, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 10.1016/j.cosust.2025.101584

Hydrological response to climate change and urbanization in a semi-arid urban river, Lyu et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102668

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Interpreting climate performance indices: implications for equitable and effective policy, Dhara et al., Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2025.2574858

On-capacity vs. On-grid: Effect of subsidy on the adoption of high-quality energy storage facilities in the renewable energy industry, Zhou et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114922

The potential negative impact of the UNFCCC: An analysis of sectoral, geographical, and temporal problem shifts from climate policies and measures in 25 industrialized countries, Adipudi et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103075

Trade-offs in expanding citizen participation in low-carbon transitions: Seven transition arena experiments, Lukkarinen et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104198

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Influence of relative user satisfaction and critical success factors on sustainability of climate change adaptation practices in Chamwino and Igunga, Tanzania, Baradyana et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1671911

Informing adaptation pathway approaches for vulnerable coastal infrastructure, Dawson et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100759

Climate change impacts on human health

Asymmetric Heatwave Intensification Under Divergent Climate Change Mitigation Pathways Amplifies Urban–Rural Exposure Disparities, Adeyeri et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100821

Climate Change and Impacts on Human Health: An Experience of Coastal Region People in Bangladesh, Alam et al., Climate Resilience and Sustainability Open Access 10.1002/cli2.70022

Oral health in a warming world: aligning dentistry with global climate goals – how are we doing?, Duane, British Dental Journal 10.1038/s41415-025-9292-0

Spatiotemporal changes in heat stress exposure in India, 1981-2023, Shah et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-64840-x

The potential effects of climate change on medicinal plants from the Brazilian Cerrado in South America, Guerra dos Santos et al., Biodiversity and Conservation 10.1007/s10531-025-03188-6

Wildfire smoke and its harmful effects will worsen with climate change, , Nature 10.1038/d41586-025-03404-x

Climate change & geopolitics

Geopolitical risks impede global shipping decarbonization progress, Zhao et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02852-7

Other

Bridging the gap: a review on the interaction between (micro)plastics and climate change, Costa, Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences 10.1098/rsta.2024.0501

Drying of the Panama Canal in a Warming Climate, Muñoz et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl117038

Unprecedented Carbon Accumulation in the Indian Ocean During 2016–2017, Zhang & Liao, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl117199

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

A yellow warbler is for the climate as a canary is for the coal mine, Grant, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2524799122

Germany should accelerate its renewable energy transition, Schill et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02919-5

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

What’s Next for US Energy Storage After OBBBA and Amid Continued Tariff Risk?, John Leonti and Vaughn Morrison, Troutman Pepper Locke

The authors evaluate how the value of energy storage was perceived within the context of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), assess the impact of the OBBBA on the U.S. energy storage sector, with a particular focus on the Foreign Entity of Concern rules, explore the potential impact of the withdrawal of tax credits for solar and wind on energy storage deployment, examine the impact of China’s tariff hikes and steps the U.S. storage industry is taking to mitigate the effects, and highlight the most significant emerging opportunities for the U.S. energy storage sector.

Wake Up and Smell the Deforestation. Coffee’s Destruction of Brazilian Forests and its Future, Baruah et al., Coffee Watch

From 2001 to 2023, Brazil’s coffee heartland lost more than 11 million hectares of forest, a footprint of destruction on the scale of Honduras. Within this vast footprint, at least 312,803 hectares were directly cleared for coffee. This first-ever integrated mapping shows 737,000 hectares of forest loss inside coffee farms, 77% in the Cerrado and 20% in the Atlantic Forest. Historical analysis of pre-2000 data also revealed that coffee was a top driver of Atlantic Forest deforestation, with less than 90% of it remaining today. The authors link forest loss to drying trends across the coffee belt, and the rainfall losses to crop failures.

The New Reality of Power Generation. An Analysis of Increasing Gas Turbine Costs in the U.S, Gridlab, Energy Futures Group, and Halcyon

The capital costs for new gas combustion turbine (CT) and combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT) power plants in the United States have increased significantly in recent years. While anecdotes of these higher costs are becoming more common, the specific data is often difficult to access. Much of the most current and detailed market information on gas turbine costs is contained within Integrated Resource Plans (IRPs) and Certificates of Public Convenience and Necessity (CPCNs), which are often confidential. Furthermore, widely available public datasets, such as the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL) Annual Technology Baseline (ATB) or the Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Annual Energy Outlook (AEO), are often not up to date with the most current market information and therefore present an underestimated view of project costs. With these challenges in mind, teh authors have worked to mine and make available market data from IRP and CPCN filings, providing a clearer and more accurate picture for stakeholders.

An Eye on Methane 2025: From measurement to momentum. Data is driving action — now the pace must match the promise, Abichou et al., United Natddasaions Environment Program

Human-caused methane emissions are responsible for roughly a third of the planet’s current warming. Reducing these emissions is the fastest, most cost-effective way to slow global warming in the near-term — and is essential to avert climate tipping points. Cutting methane emissions is the fastest, most cost-effective way to slow near-term warming as broader decarbonization efforts advance. With only 52 months until 2030, achieving the Global Methane Pledge target—a 30 per cent reduction in global methane emissions by decade’s end—is more urgent than ever. The authors assess progress harnessing a methane data revolution that can accelerate methane reductions at a global scale. The International Methane Emissions Observatory (IMEO) provides open, reliable and actionable data to governments and companies who can use it to reduce emissions. Sources include industry reporting via the Oil and Gas Methane Partnership 2.0 (OGMP 2.0), satellite detections via the Methane Alert and Response System (MARS), IMEO’s series of global methane science studies and national emissions inventories.

Greenhouse gas removals (GGRs): independent review, Alan Whitehead, United Kingdom Government

Greenhouse gas removals (GGRs) have a supplementary but essential role in achieving net zero, both in the United Kingdom (UK) and globally. They will also be crucial in bringing down atmospheric CO2 concentrations to safer levels later in the century. There is a danger that the UK’s strategy takes an unbalanced approach to deploying the necessary GGRs. The author assesses the range of GGR options to meet net zero and, while not prescriptive, considers the desirable composition of the GGR portfolio for the UK.

As Cheap as Our Peers: How cutting red tape can lower the cost of rooftop solar and offset rising utility bills, Talor Gruenwald, Permit Power

American families are facing a growing energy affordability crisis. Utility bills have risen faster than inflation since 2022—and are set to keep climbing as utilities request record rate hikes. Today, one in seven households lives in energy poverty. But it doesn’t have to be this way. The author found that by reducing the “soft costs” of solar installation, families could see their electricity bills drop 61% by 2040—saving an average of $1,600 a year.

Cheaper Power 2030, Net Zero 2050: Resetting the UK’s Electricity Strategy for the Future, Tone Langengen, Tony Blair Institute

The UK’s commitment to net zero remains firm. Britain led the world in enshrining the Climate Change Act, and that legal duty stands. While some have suggested walking back the country’s commitment to the Climate Change Act or to achieving net zero by 2050, that choice would amount to rolling back progress. The question is no longer whether to decarbonize, but how – how to deliver clean power affordably, securely and with public support. The author sets out how to make that commitment work: a new strategy focused on cheaper, abundant electricity as the foundation for growth and energy security. Delivering this requires politicians to face up to an important reality: Britain’s high electricity costs are not accidental. They have been built into the system by decades of policy decisions. Reversing them will not happen overnight, but unless the foundations are fixed now, higher prices will be locked in for a generation.

Clean Economy Works: September 2025 Analysis, E2 Economy+Environment

The authors found that private-sector companies canceled, closed, or scaled back nearly $1.6 billion worth of large-scale clean energy projects in September 2025, bringing the total value of abandoned or downsized projects this year to over $24 billion. These cancellations have now erased nearly 21,000 previously announced clean energy jobs nationwide since the start of 2025. The findings come as the U.S. Department of Energy withdrew nearly $8 billion in federal clean energy grants supporting more than 200 projects, compounding losses in both private and public investment across the sector.

Notice of Request for Public Comment Draft Measures for New Hampshire’s Comprehensive Climate Action Plan October 15, 2025, New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services

The New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services (NHDES) issues this Notice of Request for Public Comment for NHDES’s draft measures for New Hampshire’s Comprehensive Climate Action Plan (CCAP). NHDES invites and would appreciate comments on the draft measures listed in this document by November 15, 2025. The CCAP must touch on all significant greenhouse gas sources and sinks across seven economic sectors in New Hampshire. These economic sectors include Transportation, Buildings, Electricity Generation and Use, Industry, Agriculture, Natural & Working Lands and Waste & Materials Management.

Tesla Energy: Breaking the Cost Barrier ? in Residential Energy, Tesla

Lowering the cost of residential energy systems requires a comprehensive reevaluation of the entire value chain—spanning manufacturing, hardware design, installation practices, permitting processes, customer operations and sales. Current system costs are driven not only by technological limitations, but by inefficiencies throughout the process. There are three major areas for cost reduction including, $0.54/W from simplifying code requirements and approvals processes, $0.57/W from improving customer acquisition and labor costs, and $0.67/W from driving down hardware costs. These levers have the potential to lower the total system price of solar plus storage from $5.06/W to $3.02/W.

2025 Poll: Americans’ Views on Climate and Energy Policy, The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research With funding from the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago

The authors explored Americans’ attitudes on climate change, their views on key climate and energy policies, how they feel about electric vehicles and the policies to encourage them, and their concerns around the environmental impacts of AI. Healthcare and the economy rank the top issues Americans consider very important of the policies asked about on the poll. But energy policy and climate policy are nearly aligned with immigration in terms of importance to Americans. About half consider the three issues to be very important. There are large partisan divides on these three issues. Republicans are about twice as likely to consider immigration important (65 percent) as they are to consider climate change policy important (28 percent), while Democrats consider energy policy (60 percent) and climate change policy (69 percent) to be more important than immigration (48 percent).

Derailment Risk. Why climate strategies might fail – and how to fix them, Laybourn et al., The University College London’s CL Climate Action Unit, with input from the University of Exeter and the Institute for Public Policy Research

Two trends characterize the climate change predicament: accelerating progress, including a green technology revolution; and accelerating impacts and risks, which have been persistently underestimated. It is hoped that the former will prevail over the latter: that escalating climate impacts will reinforce action. But the opposite can also occur: climate consequences can distract from climate action. This will lead to more consequences and more distractions: a vicious cycle. This is ‘derailment risk’. The report summarizes the findings of a project that explored how climate consequences can undermine climate action in a vicious cycle, the first systematic attempt to theorize this dynamic. It included 20 workshops to map risks to climate action and explore potential mitigations, engaging hundreds of experts and practitioners globally.

Climate Plunder: How a powerful few are locking the world into disaster, Dabi et al., Oxfam International

Ahead of the major international climate conference COP30 in Belem, Brazil, new research finds that the high-carbon lifestyles of the super-rich are blowing through the world’s remaining carbon budget – the amount of CO2 that can be emitted while avoiding climate disaster. The research also details how billionaires are using their political and economic influence to keep humanity hooked on fossil fuels to maximize their private profit. The authors present extensive new updated data and analysis which finds that a person from the richest 0.1% produces more carbon pollution in a day than the poorest 50% emit all year. If everyone emitted like the richest 0.1%, the carbon budget would be used up in less than 3 weeks.

Canada’s Climate Conflicted Lobbyists, F minus, Environmental Defence, and Regeneration

Canadian fossil fuel lobbyists operate with an extraordinary degree of secrecy compared to fossil fuel lobbyists in the US and EU, as Canada does not require lobbyists to disclose their compensation and does not enforce a requirement to disclose bill numbers. A review of 2025 disclosures by the 17 fossil fuel companies represented by the four lobbying firms profiled in the report finds zero instances of these firms disclosing the numbers of current bills lobbied upon. Public interest and non-profit groups who use lobby firms to increase their capacity to engage with government officials may not be aware that the firms they hire are also lobbying for fossil fuel companies because this information is not readily accessible in Canada’s lobbyist disclosure system.

Climate Inequality Report 2025. Climate Change: A Capital Challenge. Why Climate Policy Must Tackle Ownership, Lucas Chancel and Cornelia Mohren, editors, World Inequality Lab

Wealthy individuals fuel the climate crisis through their investments, even more than their consumption and lifestyles. At the world level, the top 1% represent 15% of global consumption-based emissions, while they account for 41% of global emissions associated with private capital ownership. Climate change can deepen wealth inequality, while well-designed policies can help reduce it. The top 1% could see their share of world wealth jump from 38% to 46% by 2050 if they own tomorrow’s low-carbon assets. To address the dual challenges of the climate crisis and wealth inequality, the authors explore three policies avenues including a global ban on new fossil fuel investments, a financial investment tax on the carbon content of assets, and major public investment in low-carbon infrastructure.

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