Skeptical Science New Research for Week #45 2025

Increasing extreme winds challenge offshore wind energy resilience, Zhao et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-65105-3

Increasing wintertime cloud opacity increases surface longwave radiation at a long-term Arctic observatory, Bertrand et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-64441-8

Shifting dominant periods in extreme climate impacts under global warming, Zantout et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-65600-7

Spatiotemporal evolution of extreme temperature occurrence time in the Northern Hemisphere under global warming, Li et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105128

Historical and Future Autumn Rain and Wind Onset Over Western North America Using Regional Climate Models, Taylor et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd044267

Stagnation of Atmospheric Circulation Leads to Historically Prolonged Extreme Rainfall Event Over Northwestern India in August 2024, Mahendra et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2025jd044227

Climate change economics

Spatial dependencies and long-run dynamics of the Environmental Kuznets Curve in West Africa: an analysis of growth vs. emissions, Tang et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1621251

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Does economics override obstruction? The effects of civic engagement and climate obstruction on residential solar energy adoption in Germany, Müller, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104436

Exploring spillover effects between climate policy uncertainty and carbon trading prices: evidence from China, Li et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1673541

Innovation in environmental sustainability: Carbon credits with proof of reserve on rural properties according to the standards of regulated markets, Ferronato et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000639

Luxury-focused climate mitigation policies: A comparative ethical analysis, Corvino, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000740

Perceived misinformation in offshore wind: Insights from participants in Northeastern U.S. offshore wind planning and permitting processes, Howley et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104403

Renewable energy and regional Australia: The limits to “best practices” for engagement, Cotton et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104426

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Assessing urban management resilience in response to rapid urbanization and climate change: A case study of Tehran, Ghasemi et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102678

Human-Centric Disaster Resilience: Uncovering Social Inequity in Climate Change, Liu et al., Risk Analysis 10.1111/risa.70140

Identification of Critical Risk Factors in Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) Projects, Xu et al., Risk Analysis 10.1111/risa.70139

Projecting Future Flood Losses to Company Assets in Europe: The Role of Precautionary Measures, Devadas et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006285

Climate change impacts on human health

Migrant Laborers in India Face Increased Heat Stress Driven by Climate Warming and ENSO Variability, Mishra et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006167

Whose data, whose power? Decolonizing climate change and mental health evidence, Aruta, Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102845

[Comment] Beyond the narrow lens: the power of an interdisciplinary approach to climate and health research and training, , Journal of Development and Social Sciences Open Access pdf 10.47205/jdss.2021(2-iv)74

Other

An inevitable conflict? A scoping review of climate change and generations, Schalin, Environmental Sociology Open Access 10.1080/23251042.2025.2577765

Sea surface warming and ocean-to-atmosphere feedback driven by large-scale offshore wind farms under seasonally stratified conditions, Seo et al., Science Advances 10.1126/sciadv.adw7603

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Climate change is devastating mining of minerals needed to fight it, Savige et al., Nature 10.1038/d41586-025-03560-0

Confronting the inevitable: Harnessing technology to contain systemic scientific fraud, Singer, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2521606122

Expert retrospective on a decade of the Paris Agreement, Schleussner et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-025-02477-w

How to fight climate change without the US: a guide to global action, You et al., Nature 10.1038/d41586-025-03571-x

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Cooling the Cloud: Water Utilities in a Data-Driven World, American Water Works Association

Artificial intelligence (AI) is a rapidly growing element of the nation’s economy. The physical infrastructure needed for AI is primarily housed in data centers, which are also used to meet the needs of other digital services. Data centers power these services by providing the processing, storage, and networking needed to run them. The authors discusses the opportunities for and impacts to the water sector and strategies to address them.

2025 International Energy Efficiency Scorecard, Mah et al., The American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy

The authors rank the top 25 highest energy-consuming countries on their energy efficiency policies and performance. Since the previous Scorecard edition was released in 2022, countries have made incremental progress in improving energy efficiency in buildings and industry. However, even the top-performing countries have substantial room for improvement in advancing transportation efficiency. For the second edition in a row, France ranked first. It scored 85.5 out of 100 possible points and earned the highest score in the industry and transportation chapters. Rounding out the top five were Germany, United Kingdom, Italy, and (tied for fifth) the People’s Republic of China and Spain. This year, China was the most improved country. It is the leader in public transit use and is one of only two countries to have national targets for reducing both energy consumption and energy intensity.

The 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, Romanello et al., Lancet

The report represents the work of 128 experts from 71 institutions, monitoring progress across 57 indicators – from heat-related deaths to bank lending to fossil fuels – providing the most comprehensive assessment yet of the links between climate change and health. The health threats of climate change have reached unprecedented levels. Of the 20 indicators tracking the health risks and impacts of climate change in this report, 12 have set concerning new records in the latest year for which indicator data are available. The data in this report reveal that, as the health risks and impacts of climate change break concerning new records, progress is being reversed across key areas, further threatening health and survival. However, the evidence in this report also exposes important opportunities to accelerate action and prevent the most catastrophic impacts of climate change. The authors warn that health impacts of climate change are worsening, with millions dying needlessly each year due to fossil fuel dependence, growing greenhouse gas emissions, and failure to adequately adapt. As some countries and companies rollback on climate commitments, local and grassroots leadership is building momentum for a healthier future.

Running on empty. The world is gearing up for climate resilience — without the money to get there, Neufeldt et al., United Nations Environment Program

The authors found that there is a yawning gap in adaptation finance for developing countries is putting lives, livelihoods and entire economies at risk. The authors update the cost of adaptation finance needed in developing countries, putting it at US$310 billion per year in 2035, when based on modelled costs. When based on extrapolated needs expressed in Nationally Determined Contributions and National Adaptation Plans, this figure rises to US$365 billion a year. Meanwhile, international public adaptation finance flows to developing countries were US$26 billion in 2023: down from US$28 billion the previous year. This makes adaptation financing needs in developing countries 12-14 times as much as current flows. If current finance trends continue, the Glasgow Climate Pact goal of doubling international public adaptation finance from 2019 levels by 2025 will not be achieved, while the New Collective Quantified Goal for climate finance is not ambitious enough to close the finance gap. The private sector could do more – with potential to provide around US$50 billion per year if backed by targeted policy action and blended finance solutions.

Integrated Product- and Entity-Level Carbon Accounting: Putting Concepts into Practice, Moniz et al., EFI Foundation

The authors present a synthesis of a ledger-based accounting framework that integrates product- and entity-level carbon dioxide (CO?) emissions accounting within a single, verifiable system. Based on financial accounting principles and engineering fundamentals of carbon mass and energy balances, the framework demonstrates how rigorous, transactions-based carbon accounting can work in practice through a sustainable aviation fuel case study.

Carbon dioxide removal in the G20 pledges: limited and lacking credibility. A State of Carbon Dioxide Removal Insight Report, Lamb et al., Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland, et al

Countries must sharply reduce emissions and scale up carbon dioxide removal (CDR) to meet the temperature goal of the Paris Agreement, but the role of CDR in current pledges remains limited and lacks credibility. Only three G20 members submitted a new Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) by the February 2025 deadline. Less than half submitted one by the end of September 2025. As it stands, only eight provide enough information to judge the contribution of CDR to meeting their targets. Even fewer parties have taken actions to make these pledges credible, namely by setting net zero emissions targets into law, implementing CDR policies and measures, and comprehensively planning for scaling up CDR. Without more transparency and credible commitments, it remains highly uncertain whether parties plan to support CDR and if these plans are sufficient to put the world on track for scaling it by the mid-century.

A Distant Problem No Longer. How climate change is fueling crime and fraying trust across Europe, Peter Schwartzstein and Sabrina Kaschowitz, Friedrich Ebert Stiftung

Climate change has often been viewed as a challenge mainly affecting other parts of the world. However, the authors show that Europe is also becoming increasingly vulnerable to floods, droughts, wildfires, heatwaves and the social and political tensions that follow. As climate change and its consequences intensify, familiar patterns of trust, stability and security are beginning to erode. The report examines how climate stresses interact with inequality, economic divides, the spread of disinformation and governance challenges, thereby undermining public trust and political legitimacy in various parts of the continent. Drawing on field research and case studies from Europe, A Distant Problem No Longer illustrates how environmental shocks are reshaping communities and institutions, and emphasizes the importance of understanding these links for building resilience in Europe’s democracies.

10 New Insights in Climate Science, 2025-2026, Future Earth, The Earth League, and the World Climate Research Programme

Land based carbon sinks are reaching critical limits, heat stress is driving a sharp decline in labor productivity, and rising temperatures are worsening outbreaks of mosquito-borne diseases. These are a few of the latest insights emerging from research that the authors highlight in their report. The annual reports warns that weaker land sinks, especially forests and soils in the Northern Hemisphere, threaten to derail today’s emissions projections while accelerating global warming.

Hurricane Melissa, Grantham Institute – Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London

Melissa was one of the most powerful landfalling hurricanes ever recorded. The IRIS model estimates that climate change increased the intensity of a hurricane of the type of “Melissa” to an exceptional Category 5 at landfall. A “Melissa” type hurricane at landfall is about four times more likely in the 2025 climate compared to a pre-industrial baseline. This event was unlikely without climate change.

Mapping the Depths: A Stocktake of Underground Power Distribution in United States, Sun et al., Stanford University

A resilient energy infrastructure is crucial for addressing increasing extreme weather and climate risks. The undergrounding of the power system is one approach to building such resiliency. In this study, the authors introduce Grid Underground Distribution Statistics (GUDS) for the US, the first nationwide comprehensive assessment of underground electricity distribution at a high spatial granularity. In analyzing this dataset, the authors found regional differences in underground distribution rates, with generally higher rates for east and west coasts and in northern states, and lower rates in the central US. They also observed relationships between underground rates and factors such as household income levels, degree of urbanization, and vulnerability to natural hazards. Notably, regions with higher electricity rates are not associated with greater proportions of underground distribution, highlighting potential equity issues in infrastructure distribution. By presenting this granular information and insights on underground distribution, the authors offer valuable guidance for informing planning and decision-making by policymakers, Independent System Operators, utilities, and end-users.

A Federal Offshore Wind Authority: A Public Moon Shot for Offshore Wind, Knuth et al., The Climate and Community Institute

The offshore wind industry is under attack. The Trump administration has cancelled hundreds of millions in public support, halted leases for new projects, and even attempted to stop a project that was 80 percent completed. Offshore wind is vital to any hope of decarbonizing the US economy because of both projects’ scale and proximity to dense population centers with high electricity needs. However, even before the outright attacks on the industry, offshore wind has been slow to roll out because the industry lacked the coordination support necessary to execute these highly complex projects. The United States needs somewhere between 270 and 485 gigawatts (GW) of offshore wind to decarbonize by 2050; however, based on states’ current plans, only about 50 GW is planned to be online.

Government-Led Advance Market Commitment for Carbon Removal, Deich et al., RMI

The authors discuss the critical gaps facing the carbon removal industry, analyzes how different interventions might fill those gaps, and concludes that an Advanced Market Commitment for carbon removal, alongside other policy, is a vital tool not only to scale up carbon removal but also to provide unique benefits to governments that choose to lead on its design and implementation.

How to Get to the Net? A discussion paper on carbon dioxide removal, UN-convened Net-Zero Asset Owner Alliance Working Group, United Nations Environment Program

Ten years after the 2015 Paris Agreement, decarbonization remains a cornerstone of achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. However, decarbonization alone is insufficient. While reducing emissions is critical, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide (CO2) already exceeds acceptable levels, necessitating the removal of historical emissions to reverse climate change. Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is essential to achieving “net negative” emissions, a concept supported by climate science and integrated into ambitious net-zero pathways. Natural carbon sinks, such as forests and oceans, have historically played a key role in removing CO2. However, deforestation, ocean acidification, and other factors have diminished their effectiveness, with some at risk of becoming net emitters. Preserving these ecosystems is vital but insufficient on its own. Both nature-based and technology-based CDR solutions must be scaled rapidly to meet the growing demand for durable carbon removal. Nature-based solutions offer scalability and environmental co-benefits but face challenges like reversal risks, while technology-based solutions provide durability and verifiability but are costly. Carbon markets are pivotal in scaling CDR solutions but have struggled to support removals effectively. The authors explore the current CDR landscape, identifies barriers to scaling, and offers recommendations to enhance carbon markets, mobilize financing, and foster a stable demand for CDR.

Planet Wreckers: The Global North Countries Fueling the Fire Since the Paris Agreement, Ioualalen et al., Oil Change International

The U.S., Canada, Australia, and Norway collectively increased their oil and gas production by nearly 40 percent since the Paris Agreement was adopted in 2015 to 2024. Global North countries paid only $280 billion in climate finance to the rest of the world since the Paris Agreement – while enabling the oil and gas companies they headquarter to make close to 5 times as much in profit, over $1.3 trillion, during the same period.

Property Value Flood Risk Report. How floods are impacting Australian property values, Creagh et al., PropTrack and Climate Council

Flood risk has cost Australians $42.2 billion, with 1 in 6 Australian homes at risk of flooding. Queensland and New South Wales homeowners face the largest flood impacts on property value. Market behavior and perceived vulnerability drive price outcomes. Building economic and climate resilience into the housing market is critical.

Extreme Heat and Response Guidelines and Webtool, Jay et al., Sports Medicine Australia

The assessment of heat stress risk is based on a validated thermo-physiological heat balance model which determines the environmental conditions at which critical levels of heat stress risk to health are predicted to occur. These models account for the effects of air temperature, humidity, thermal radiation from the sun, air flow from wind, the intensity of the sporting activity and clothing requirements. Once a risk threshold is reached, a simple color coding system recommends evidence-based actions that can be taken to reduce heat-health risk. These guidelines provide recommendations for the most popular sports in Australia, based on participation rates from the 2023 AusPlay survey.

Unlivable: Confronting Extreme Urban Heat in Latin America and the Caribbean, Lakovits et al., The World Bank and the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery

The authors examine the growing threat of heat in cities across Latin America and the Caribbean, including the outlook for the coming decades; the implications for urban infrastructure and for human health, well-being, and prosperity; and what urban leaders and national governments can do to mitigate the risks, particularly for the most vulnerable people.

Surviving Heat on the Streets: An Assessment of the Psychosocial Impacts of Extreme Heat on Homeless Persons, Jain et al., Housing and Land Rights Network

As India’s cities expand and housing becomes increasingly unaffordable, homelessness has deepened into a human rights crisis that intertwines deprivation, mental distress, and exposure to climate extremes. In Delhi alone, more than 300,000 people sleep on streets, under flyovers, or outside places of worship. Rising heat has intensified the psychological and physical suffering of those without shelter, underscoring how homelessness extends far beyond the absence of a roof—it is also a denial of belonging and dignity. The findings call for urgent, structured action to meet the psychosocial needs of homeless persons through a layered approach including ensuring basic necessities like food, shelter, and healthcare, fostering community support, and expanding access to mental health care.

PEI (Prince Edward Island) Energy Strategy, Summary, Dunsky Energy + Climate Advisors, Prince Edward Island Government

Prince Edward Island (PEI) remains committed to climate action, having adopted an ambitious goal of reaching net zero by 2040. These commitments require a significant transformation in how energy is produced, delivered, and used across all sectors of PEI’s economy while being mindful of the need to balance climate action, affordability, and energy system reliability. In response to the challenges and opportunities presented by the evolving landscape, as well as the outcomes of province-wide consultation, PEI developed an updated energy strategy – building off the Province’s previous work – and to chart a clear course for the next decade. This summary presents PEI’s updated energy strategy for the 2026–2035 period.

Severe Weather Events and Resiliency in New York State, New York State Comptroller

The authors examine trends in incidence of damaging weather, the costs of recovery and efforts to mitigate the impact of these weather events. Among the major findings are severe weather events tracked by NOAA are increasing in incidence in New York and certain types of events, including thunderstorm-related damaging wind and flash flooding, are also increasing; controlling for inflation, NOAA has found that weather-related disasters causing $1 billion or more in damage have occurred at an increasing rate since 1980; since 1998 there have been an average of 2.5 weather events each year resulting in federal Disaster or Emergency declarations with authorized assistance in real 2024 dollars averaging $958.6 million per year in New York; and NOAA Storm Data shows that there have been 594 deaths in New York from severe weather between 1996 and 2024. Heat and extreme heat events are responsible for most deaths with 122, followed by rip currents with 62 and flash flooding events with 57 deaths.

Scaling the Carbon-Removals Economy, The Tony Blair Institute

Going forward, the world cannot rely solely on reducing the amount of carbon released into the atmosphere, even while actions to reduce emissions remain the top priority. The world must also actively remove the carbon dioxide that is already in the atmosphere, through the use of carbon-dioxide removals (CDR). The well-known bathtub analogy illustrates that while cutting emissions is like turning off the water (or CO?) flowing into a bathtub, because the tub is already close to overflowing, we also need to pull the plug (carbon removals) to bring the existing water level down.

ClimateScope 2025. Emerging Markets Power Transition Factbook, BloombergNEF

By taking a longer view on how the energy transition is progressing in emerging markets, the authors seek to identify the success stories, the challenges and the opportunities in moving these economies toward a low-carbon future. Annual renewable-energy investment in emerging markets has expanded dramatically, to $140 billion in 2024 from $49 billion in 2015. However, the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s Standing Committee on Finance estimates that these markets require about $1.3 trillion annually through 2035 to stay aligned with the Paris Agreement’s temperature limits. Investment flows also remain highly concentrated, with the majority directed to India and Brazil. Low-income markets capture less than 1% of global renewable funding.

Rhodium Climate Outlook 2025: Probabilistic Global Emissions and Energy Baseline Projections, Mobir et al., Rhodium Group

The authors provide probabilistic projections of the likely evolution of greenhouse gas emissions and associated temperature rise through the end of the century and offer their insights into what will matter most for decarbonization in the coming decades.

“Utility Bills are Rising” Q3 2025 Update, Powerlines

A majority of consumers in the United States are concerned about increasing utility bills, as residential electricity costs have risen by almost 30% since 2021 and residential gas costs have increased by 40% since 2019, significantly outpacing inflation. Today, nearly 80 million Americans are struggling to pay their utility bills, forgoing basic expenses like food, education, and health care to keep their lights on. In an era of unprecedented growth in electricity demand not seen at this scale in decades, ensuring that consumer perspectives are central to utility regulatory decision making—both in process and outcome—is key to restoring a system that serves the public interest and maintains the trust of consumers.

The Climate Technology Progress Report 2025. Advancing Biobased Technologies in the Bioeconomy, United Nations Environment Program

The authors examine how advancing the climate and nature agenda through the integration of technology and sustainable biobased solutions can offer a comprehensive and cost-effective pathway to achieving both objectives simultaneously. The report is intended as a resource for policymakers, practitioners, and stakeholders seeking to advance integrated, effective, and equitable climate and nature action in the lead-up to COP 30 and beyond

Implementation of Federal Clean Energy Programs: Lessons Learned from DOE and Partner Agencies, Fahs et al., Federation for American Scientists

The authors distill insights from more than 80 former federal staff and clean energy implementers who led the rollout of the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and Inflation Reduction Act. They examine why translating historic investments into real-world projects proved so difficult—and what can be done differently next time.

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