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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #48 2022


Skeptical Science New Research for Week #48 2022

Posted on 1 December 2022 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Open access notables:

Kunio Kaiho is a leading expert on past extinction events. In Extinction magnitude of animals in the near future just published in Nature Scientific Reports, Kaiho draws on mechanisms of prior mass extinction events to prognosticate on what effect Homo bolidus [our term] might impose on Earth’s living species. “It depends,” with the news starting at “only” 10-15% species loss in the “best” plausible case, ranging to losses of 20-50% if human nature with which we’re familiar asserts itself. The “good” news? Kaiho more or less rules out a 6th major extinction event with losses of +60%. Let’s instead try to be Homo sapiens and see how it turns out, eh?

The World Meteorological Organization IWMO) publishes the first of a new reportage product, State of Global Water Resources 2021. As with other WMO reviews, this work is authored by distinguished experts in topic areas. The report is divided into chapters covering streamflow, water storage, high impact events of 2021, and water resources embodied in ice. We’re not far in before climate implications arise: “Despite prevailing La Niña conditions, the year 2021 was ranked as the fifth to seventh warmest on record, with the global annual mean temperature of 1.11 ± 0.13 °C above the 1850–1900 pre-industrial average. Precipitation patterns were characterized by high spatial and temporal variability.” As further described, these broad features translated into a year of extreme flooding events. From this week’s government-NGO section.

Enhancement of river flooding due to global warming From the abstract of this attribution study, authors Alifu et al. report: “Human-induced climate change altered the probabilities of 20 of the 52 analyzed flood events. Fourteen of these 20 flood events, which occurred mainly in Asia and South America, were very likely to have been enhanced by human-induced climate change due to an increase in heavy precipitation. Conversely, two flood events in North/South America and two flood events in Asia and two flood events in Europe were suppressed by human-induced climate change, perhaps as a result of lower snowfall. Human-induced climate change has enhanced flooding more prominently in recent years, providing important insights into potential adaptation strategies for river flooding.” Ratios are everything.

Prior thawing gives us some hints about quantities of carbon to be released as we melt our inventory of permafrost. Deglacial release of petrogenic and permafrost carbon from the Canadian Arctic impacting the carbon cycle by Wu et al. exploits continental glacial retreat to scrape some data and do analysis on permafrost, particularly connected to  losses by coastal erosion. With respect to effect on atmospheric composition, withal the sources studied were found to have contributed some 12ppm CO2 rise during deglaciation. This find helps to solidify the role of Southern Ocean ventilation in the overall 75ppm increase associated with ice retreat. 

Recession or resilience? Long-range socioeconomic consequences of the 17th century volcanic eruptions in northern Fennoscandia Not the type of climate change we’re preoccupied with today but rather an intriguing look at how a climate shock affects a society at granular levels of detail. It’s probably no surprise to learn that context is everything; well-resourced segments fared better than those without surplus on hand. Authors Huhtamaa, Stoffel and Corona lead readers back to implications of their findings for events now and in the future. 

Herbarium records provide reliable phenology estimates in the understudied tropics Conveniently and despite a dearth of observational evidence from the field, we can infer phenology of tropical plants in the wild from behavior of “tame” versions in herbariums. This skill will be useful in light of rapid climate change and associated phenological effects, and our concomitant need to pay attention to species vulnerabilities and other knock-on effects of phenology.  Park et al. describe their process and findings in bioRxiv.

Growing polarization across a efficient ion exchange membrane for human nature? Is anybody surprised? Probably not. But one of the services of scientific investigation is that of constraining our imaginative intuition, improving our mental models. Perhaps more importantly, solid information is helpful to communicators. Falkenberg et al. deliver all the goods in Growing polarization around climate change on social media, in Nature Climate Change.

Disasters and catastrophes capture our attention, but what about climate change creeping in on cat feet? Changing seasonal temperature offers a window of opportunity for stricter climate policy by Lena Pfeifer and Ilona Otto reveals that many of us are sensitive to more subtle changes than a wall of water where it’s supposed to be dry. What’s more, these perceptions make people more amenable to necessary changes.  

143 articles in 56 journals by 848 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Drivers and Mechanisms of the 2021 Pacific Northwest Heatwave
Schumacher et al., ESSOar, Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10511613.1

Minimal recipes for global cloudiness
Datseris et al., ESSOar, 10.1002/essoar.10510797.2

South Pacific Ocean Dynamics Redistribute Ocean Heat Content and Modulate Heat Exchange With the Atmosphere
Fernandez et al., ESSOar, 10.1002/essoar.10512418.1

The role of oceanic heat flux in reducing thermodynamic ice growth in Nares Strait and promoting earlier collapse of the ice bridge
Kirillov et al., Ocean Science, Open Access pdf 10.5194/os-18-1535-2022

What can Hydrography between the New England Slope, Bermuda and Africa tell us about the strength of the AMOC over the last 90 years?
Rossby et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl099173

Observations of climate change, effects

2021 North American heatwave amplified by climate change-driven nonlinear interactions
Bartusek et al., Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01520-4

Analysis of climate change in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Basin using principal component analysis
Cai et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-022-04283-2

Attribution of the human influence on heavy rainfall associated with flooding events during the 2012, 2016, and 2018 March-April-May seasons in Kenya
Kimutai et al., Weather and Climate Extremes, Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100529

Changes of the aridity index in Europe from 1950 to 2019
Bešt?áková et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-022-04266-3

Climatology and characteristics of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean
Mano Kranthi et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7945

Enhancement of river flooding due to global warming
Alifu et al., Scientific Reports, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-022-25182-6

Homogenisation of daily temperature and humidity series in the United Kingdom
Brugnara et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7941

Recent changes in circulation patterns and their opposing impact on extreme precipitation at the west coast of Norway
Ødemark et al., Weather and Climate Extremes, Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100530

Satellite observed delaying effects of increased winds on spring green-up dates
Dong et al., Remote Sensing of Environment, 10.1016/j.rse.2022.113363

The response of nitrogen deposition in China to recent and future changes in anthropogenic emissions
Zhu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2022jd037437

Time Series Construction of Oregon and Washington Snowfall since 1890 and an Update of California Snowfall through 2020
Christy, Journal of Hydrometeorology, 10.1175/jhm-d-21-0178.1

Trends of reference evapotranspiration and its physical drivers in southern South America
Merino & Gassmann, International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7935

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

Assessing internal variability of global mean surface temperature from observational data and implications for reaching key thresholds
Trewin, [journal not provided], Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10510979.1

Assessing predictability of marine heatwaves with random forests
Giamalaki et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl099069

Estimating impact likelihoods from probabilistic projections of climate and socio-economic change using impact response surfaces
Fronzek et al., Climate Risk Management, Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100466

Evaluation of reanalysis air temperature and precipitation in high-latitude Asia using ground-based observations
Lan et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7937

Herbarium records provide reliable phenology estimates in the understudied tropics
Park et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.1101/2022.08.19.504574

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Circulation and Soil Moisture Contributions to Heatwaves in the United States
Horowitz et al., Journal of Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0156.1

CMIP6 Projected Response of the East Asian Winter Climate to the Sea Ice Free Arctic
Song & Zhou, International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7931

Detectable Increase in Global Land Areas Susceptible to Precipitation Reversals under the RCP8.5 Scenario
Cheng & Liu, Earth’s Future, 10.1029/2022ef002948

Distinct Responses of North Pacific and North Atlantic Summertime Subtropical Anticyclones to Global Warming
He & Zhou, Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-21-1024.1

Diverging Fates of the Pacific Ocean Oxygen Minimum Zone and Its Core in a Warming World
Busecke et al., AGU Advances, 10.1029/2021av000470

Forest fire threatens global carbon sinks and population centres under rising atmospheric water demand
Clarke et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-34966-3

Future changes in global runoff and runoff coefficient from CMIP6 multi-model simulation under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios
Wang et al., Earth’s Future, 10.1029/2022ef002910

Future changes in monsoon extreme climate indices over the Sikkim Himalayas and West Bengal
Biswas & Bhattacharya, Dynamics of Atmospheres and Oceans, 10.1016/j.dynatmoce.2022.101346

Future Frequency and intensity of Western Disturbance(s)
Midhuna et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7944

Future seasonal changes in extreme precipitation scale with changes in the mean
Bador & Alexander, Earth’s Future, 10.1029/2022ef002979

Performance and Changes of High-Resolution (1 km) Surface Air Temperature in Northern Hemisphere Permafrost Regions
Jin et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7918

Prediction of sand and dust storms in West Asia under climate change scenario (RCPs)
Rabbani & Sharifikia, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-022-04240-z

Projection of compound wind and precipitation extremes in China based on CMIP6 models
Meng et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7922

Temperatures of Anvil Clouds and Radiative Tropopause in a Wide Array of Cloud-Resolving Simulations
Seidel & Yang Yang, Journal of Climate, Open Access 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0962.1

The relative role of the subsurface Southern Ocean in driving negative Antarctic Sea ice extent anomalies in 2016–2021
Zhang et al., Communications Earth & Environment, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-022-00624-1

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Common error patterns in the regional atmospheric circulation simulated by the CMIP multi-model ensemble
Brands, Geophysical Research Letters, Open Access 10.1029/2022gl101446

Deep-Learning-Based Harmonization and Super-Resolution of Near-Surface Air Temperature from CMIP6 Models (1850-2100)
Wei et al., International Journal of Climatology, Open Access 10.1002/joc.7926

Evaluation of extreme precipitation over Southeast Asia in the CMIP5 regional climate model results and HighResMIP global climate models
Hariadi et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7938

Evaluation of long-term changes in precipitation over Bolivia based on observations and CMIP models
Vicente?Serrano et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7924

Linking Large-Scale Double-ITCZ Bias to Local-Scale Drizzling Bias in Climate Models
Zhou et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0336.1

Normal forms for saddle-node bifurcations: Takens’ coefficient and applications in climate models
Glendinning & Simpson, Proceedings of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Open Access 10.1098/rspa.2022.0548

Prediction of sand and dust storms in West Asia under climate change scenario (RCPs)
Rabbani & Sharifikia, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-022-04240-z

Southern Ocean Solar Reflection Biases in CMIP6 Models Linked to Cloud Phase and Vertical Structure Representations
Cesana et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl099777

The impact of winds on AMOC in a fully-coupled climate model
Roach et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl101203

Tropical Intraseasonal Variability Response to Zonally Asymmetric Forcing in an Idealized Moist GCM
MacDonald & Ming Ming, [journal not provided], Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10511343.1

Cryosphere & climate change

Damage detection on antarctic ice shelves using the normalised radon transform
Izeboud & Lhermitte, Remote Sensing of Environment, Open Access 10.1016/j.rse.2022.113359

Drainage and refill of an Antarctic Peninsula subglacial lake reveal an active subglacial hydrological network
Hodgson et al., The Cryosphere, Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-16-4797-2022

Wind-driven Seasonal Intrusion of Modified Circumpolar Deep Water onto the Continental Shelf in Prydz Bay, East Antarctica
Guo et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 10.1029/2022jc018741

Sea level & climate change

Mapping Vertical Land Motion in Challenging Terrain: Six-Year Trends on Tutuila Island, American Samoa, with PS-InSAR, GPS, Tide Gauge, and Satellite Altimetry Data
Huang et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl101363

Paleoclimate

A focus on the last 1000 years of natural environmental changes in the tropical rainforests of West and Central Africa. Can we detect anthropogenic disturbances?
Giresse et al., Global and Planetary Change, 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103995

A Holocene temperature (brGDGT) record from Garba Guracha, a high-altitude lake in Ethiopia
Bittner et al., Biogeosciences, Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-19-5357-2022

Deglacial increase of seasonal temperature variability in the tropical ocean
Wörmer et al., Nature, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41586-022-05350-4

Deglacial release of petrogenic and permafrost carbon from the Canadian Arctic impacting the carbon cycle
Wu et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-34725-4

Internal climate variability and spatial temperature correlations during the past 2000 years
Bakker et al., Climate of the Past, Open Access pdf 10.5194/cp-18-2523-2022

Linked fire activity and climate whiplash in California during the early Holocene
Homann et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-34950-x

Maximum July–August temperatures for the middle of the southern Tien Shan inferred from tree-ring latewood maximum densities
Li et al., International Journal of Biometeorology, 10.1007/s00484-022-02408-w

Recession or resilience? Long-range socioeconomic consequences of the 17th century volcanic eruptions in northern Fennoscandia
Huhtamaa et al., Climate of the Past, Open Access 10.5194/cp-18-2077-2022

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Assessing future shifts in habitat suitability and connectivity to old-growth forests to support the conservation of the endangered giant noctule
Iannella et al., PeerJ, Open Access 10.7717/peerj.14446

Dissolved, Labile, and Total Particulate Trace Metal Dynamics on the Northeast Greenland Shelf
Chen et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 10.1029/2022gb007528

Distinct patterns of soil bacterial and fungal community assemblages in subtropical forest ecosystems under warming
Zhou et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16541

Extinction magnitude of animals in the near future
Kaiho, Scientific Reports, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-022-23369-5

Global distribution and climate sensitivity of the tropical montane forest nitrogen cycle
Gay et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-35170-z

Gobal diversity patterns of larger benthic foraminifera under future climate change
Förderer et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16535

Herbarium records provide reliable phenology estimates in the understudied tropics
Park et al., [bioRxiv], Open Access pdf 10.1101/2022.08.19.504574

Herbivory damage but not plant disease under experimental warming is dependent on weather for three subalpine grass species
Lynn et al., Journal of Ecology, 10.1111/1365-2745.14050

Legacy effects in radial tree growth are rarely significant after accounting for biological memory
Klesse et al., Journal of Ecology, 10.1111/1365-2745.14045

Long-range dependence and extreme values of precipitation, phosphorus load, and Cyanobacteria
Carpenter et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2214343119

Nitrogen addition and warming modulate the pathogen impact on plant biomass by shifting intraspecific functional traits and reducing species richness
Yan et al., Journal of Ecology, 10.1111/1365-2745.14043

Scenarios of change in the realized climatic niche of mountain carnivores and ungulates
Dragonetti et al., Conservation Biology, 10.1111/cobi.14035

Temperature regime during embryogenesis alters subsequent behavioural phenotypes of juvenile brown trout
Takatsu et al., Biology Letters, 10.1098/rsbl.2022.0369

The Effects of Light Intensity and Flow Speed on Biogeochemical Variability within a Fringing Coral Reef in Onna-son, Okinawa, Japan.
Rintoul et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Open Access 10.1029/2021jc018369

Wildflower phenological escape differs by continent and spring temperature
Lee et al., Nature Communications, Open Access 10.1038/s41467-022-34936-9

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Assessing protected area’s carbon stocks and ecological structure at regional-scale using GEDI lidar
Liang et al., Global Environmental Change, Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102621

CO2 emissions in China under electricity substitution: Influencing factors and decoupling effects
Song et al., Urban Climate, Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101365

Divergent seasonal responses of carbon fluxes to extreme droughts over China
Deng et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109253

Forest fire threatens global carbon sinks and population centres under rising atmospheric water demand
Clarke et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-34966-3

Going Local: How Coastal Environmental Settings Can Help Improve Global Mangrove Carbon Storage and Flux Estimates
Taillardat, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl101979

Impact of urban expansion on land surface temperature and carbon emissions using machine learning algorithms in Wuhan, China
Zhang et al., Urban Climate, Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101347

Reliability of using vegetation optical depth for estimating decadal and interannual carbon dynamics
Dou et al., Remote Sensing of Environment, Open Access 10.1016/j.rse.2022.113390

Shallow gas in Holocene sediments of the Pearl River Estuary and the implication for anthropogenic effects on its release
Zhang et al., Global and Planetary Change, 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2022.103999

The influence of seagrass and its associated sediment on organic carbon storage: A case of Halodule uninervis and Syringodium isoetifolium meadows of Western India Ocean, Tanzania
Lyimo & Hamisi, Marine Environmental Research, 10.1016/j.marenvres.2022.105836

Transfer efficiency of organic carbon in marine sediments
Bradley et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-35112-9

Decarbonization

Academic research on renewable electricity auctions: Taking stock and looking forward
del Río & Kiefer, Energy Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113305

Collaborative emission reduction research on dual-pilot policies of the low-carbon city and smart city from the perspective of multiple innovations
Xiufan & Decheng, Urban Climate, Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101364

Growth of ocean thermal energy conversion resources under greenhouse warming regulated by oceanic eddies
Du et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-34835-z

Institutional constellations and policy instruments for offshore wind power around the North sea
Rentier et al., Energy Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113344

Interaction between heterogeneous thermal stratification and wakes of wind turbine arrays
Nakao & Hattori, Wind Energy, 10.1002/we.2792

Offshore wind farms are projected to impact primary production and bottom water deoxygenation in the North Sea
Daewel et al., Communications Earth & Environment, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-022-00625-0

Optimization and analysis of a hybrid thermal photovoltaic collector: Thermal and electrical investigation
Bria et al., Energy for Sustainable Development, 10.1016/j.esd.2022.11.002

Recent Progress Toward Commercialization of Flexible Perovskite Solar Cells: From Materials and Structures to Mechanical Stabilities
Ma et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research, 10.1002/aesr.202200133

Renewable energy infrastructure impacts biodiversity beyond the area it occupies
Niebuhr et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2208815119

Semitransparent thermophotovoltaics for efficient utilization of moderate temperature thermal radiation
Lenert et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2215977119

Black carbon

South Asian black carbon is threatening the water sustainability of the Asian Water Tower
Yang et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-35128-1

Aerosols

Prediction of sand and dust storms in West Asia under climate change scenario (RCPs)
Rabbani & Sharifikia, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-022-04240-z

Climate change communications & cognition

Changing seasonal temperature offers a window of opportunity for stricter climate policy
Pfeifer & Otto, Environmental Science & Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2022.11.010

Environmental apocalypse and space: the lost dimension of the end of the world
Alt, Environmental Politics, Open Access pdf 10.1080/09644016.2022.2146935

Growing polarization around climate change on social media
Falkenberg et al., Nature Climate Change, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-022-01527-x

Normative misperceptions regarding pro-environmental behavior: Mediating roles of outcome efficacy and problem awareness
Chen et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology, 10.1016/j.jenvp.2022.101917

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Climate change adaptation in agriculture: Learning from an international labour mobility programme in Australia and the Pacific Islands region
Dun et al., Environmental Science & Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2022.10.017

Contributions of healthier diets and agricultural productivity toward sustainability and climate goals in the United States
Wu et al., Sustainability Science, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11625-022-01232-w

Non-uniform changes of growing conditions for sweet cherry trees responses to climate warming in main production regions of China
Sun et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7927

Prediction of sand and dust storms in West Asia under climate change scenario (RCPs)
Rabbani & Sharifikia, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-022-04240-z

Sustaining Productivity Gains in the Face of Climate Change: A Research Agenda for U.S. Wheat
Kusunose et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16538

Temperature, productivity, and heat tolerance: Evidence from Swedish dairy production
Ahmed et al., Climatic Change, 10.1007/s10584-022-03461-5

The influence of peer effects on farmers’ response to climate change: evidence from Sichuan Province, China
Ma et al., Climatic Change, 10.1007/s10584-022-03463-3

U.S. winter wheat yield loss attributed to compound hot-dry-windy events
Zhao et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-34947-6

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Characteristics and causes of Taiwan’s extreme rainfall in 2022 January and February
Huang et al., Weather and Climate Extremes, Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100532

Enhancement of river flooding due to global warming
Alifu et al., Scientific Reports, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-022-25182-6

Future seasonal changes in extreme precipitation scale with changes in the mean
Bador & Alexander, Earth’s Future, 10.1029/2022ef002979

Projecting compound flood hazard under climate change with physical models and joint probability methods
Gori & Lin, Earth’s Future, 10.1029/2022ef003097

Reconciling disagreement on global river flood changes in a warming climate
Zhang et al., Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01539-7

South Asian black carbon is threatening the water sustainability of the Asian Water Tower
Yang et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-35128-1

Temperature-precipitation scaling rates: A RAINFALL EVENT-BASED PERSPECTIVE
Pérez Bello et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2022jd037873

Time series analysis for droughts characteristics response to propagation
Faiz et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7933

Trends and variability of rainfall characteristics influencing annual streamflow: A case study of south-east Australia
Fu et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7923

Urbanization-induced Earth’s surface energy alteration and warming: A global spatiotemporal analysis
Shen et al., Remote Sensing of Environment, 10.1016/j.rse.2022.113361

Climate change economics

Cost-Potential Curves of Onshore Wind Energy: the Role of Disamenity Costs
Ruhnau et al., Environmental and Resource Economics, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10640-022-00746-2

Does it pay to be science-based green? The impact of science-based emission-reduction targets on corporate financial performance
Bendig et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology, 10.1111/jiec.13341

Evolution and Drivers of Energy Embodied in Intermediate and Final Trade between China and the World
Xia et al., Earth’s Future, 10.1029/2022ef002968

Publisher Correction: Economic impacts of melting of the Antarctic Ice Sheet
Dietz & Koninx, Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-35107-6

The Dasgupta Review and the Problem of Anthropocentrism
Treich, Environmental and Resource Economics, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10640-022-00663-4

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Agent-based modeling to integrate elements from different disciplines for ambitious climate policy
Savin et al., WIREs Climate Change, 10.1002/wcc.811

An ex-ante evaluation of the French car feebate
Kessler et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113335

Drivers of electricity GHG emissions and the role of natural gas in mexican energy transition
Santillán Vera et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113316

Evaluating the effectiveness of sector-specific policies relative to the planetary boundaries
Ali & Ryberg, Environmental Science & Policy, 10.1016/j.envsci.2022.11.009

Green bargains: leveraging public investment to advance climate regulation
Meckling & Strecker, Climate Policy, 10.1080/14693062.2022.2149452

Pathways of carbon emissions reduction under the water-energy constraint: A case study of Beijing in China
Wang et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113343

Policy sequencing towards carbon pricing among the world’s largest emitters
Linsenmeier et al., Nature Climate Change, Open Access 10.1038/s41558-022-01538-8

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Climate impact chains for envisaging climate risks, vulnerabilities, and adaptation issues
Estoque et al., Regional Environmental Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-022-01982-4

Critical change agent characteristics and competencies for ensuring systemic climate adaptation interventions
Meharg, Sustainability Science, 10.1007/s11625-022-01250-8

Deeper understanding of the barriers to national climate adaptation policy: the case of South Korea
Lee et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11027-022-10038-1

The influence of governance structure on local resilience: Enabling and constraining factors for climate change adaptation in practice
Birchall et al., Urban Climate, Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101348

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Challenging the financial capture of urban greening
García-Lamarca et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-34942-x

Extinction magnitude of animals in the near future
Kaiho, Scientific Reports, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-022-23369-5

Rethinking the drivers of biotechnologies: a paradigm for holistic climate change solutions
Heinemann & Hiscox, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 10.1016/j.cosust.2022.101222

Statistical traps lurk in the research of soil carbon dynamics
Xu & He, Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16536

Strengthening climate research capacity in Africa: lessons from the ‘Climate impact research capacity leadership enhancement’ project
Ogega et al., Regional Environmental Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-022-01997-x

Sustaining Productivity Gains in the Face of Climate Change: A Research Agenda for U.S. Wheat
Kusunose et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16538

The carbon-quality temperature hypothesis: Fact or artefact?
, Dictionary of Gems and Gemology, Open Access 10.1007/978-3-540-72816-0_1287

The Policy Implications of the Dasgupta Review: Land Use Change and Biodiversity
Barbier, Environmental and Resource Economics, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10640-022-00658-1

The unknown biogeochemical impacts of drying rivers and streams
Zimmer et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-34903-4


Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Economic Impacts of the 2020–22 Drought on California Agriculture, Medina et al., Water Systems Management Lab University of California, Merced

Losses to California’s agriculture industry have continued to mount as the state’s drought stretched into a third straight year. The authors estimate direct economic impacts on farm activity of $1.2 billion in 2022, up from $810 million in 2021 — representing a 4.9% and 3.4% impact on crop value added, respectively. “Value added” is the contribution from a sector to the region’s gross domestic product. It includes profits, compensation, and taxes. Beyond direct farm effects, impacts on food processing industries that rely on farm products were roughly $845 million in 2022, up from $590 million in 2021. Altogether these consequences total $2 billion in value-added losses this year alone (5.9% reduction with respect to 2019) and a loss of 19,420 jobs.

Ocean Acidification: Frequently Asked Questions, Caitlin Keating-Bitonti and Eva Lipiec, Congressional Research Service

The ocean absorbs carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere. Chemical reactions between CO2 and water can change the pH of seawater (pH is a measure of water’s acidity or basicity). The current shift in the chemistry of seawater is toward a lower pH, commonly referred to as ocean acidification (OA). The scientific consensus is that rising CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere will continue to contribute to OA globally, primarily affecting the ocean’s surface waters. Some U.S. regions are experiencing impacts from OA (e.g., coastal waters of Oregon), and scientists expect that nearly all U.S. coastlines and open ocean waters will experience impacts of OA by 2100. OA also has negatively affected some marine organisms, such as reef-building corals and shellfish, and may affect others in the future. These impacts have had consequences for U.S. fisheries and aquaculture. Future OA’s economic impacts may include higher risks of storm damage to coastal communities and loss of tourism revenue from OA-caused degradation of coral reefs.

Canada’s National Adaptation Strategy, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Government of Canada

Climate change is affecting Canada in ways that are as diverse as Canada itself. Across the country, warming temperatures and changing precipitation are contributing to more frequent and devastating events like heatwaves, floods, droughts, and wildfires. Canada’s coastal areas are experiencing sea-level rise, coastal erosion, and changes to aquatic ecosystems. In the North, permafrost is thawing and ice and snow are changing and disappearing. These changes affect the very foundations of our lives – our homes and communities, our health and well-being, our livelihoods, and the natural environment upon which we depend. Many more lives will be threatened by the impacts of a warming and more volatile climate in Canada that will continue to intensify for decades to come – unless we create a more climate-resilient society. The National Adaptation Strategy outlines a shared path to a more climate-resilient Canada. It establishes a shared vision of what we want our future to look like. It sets out a common direction for preparing for climate change events across five key systems that are at the heart of our lives and communities: disaster resilience, health and wellbeing, nature and biodiversity, infrastructure, and economy and workers. The strategy is underpinned by a set of guiding principles acknowledging that how Canada reaches its goals and objectives is just as important. These guiding principles will direct decisions and investments, to help ensure Canada is creating solutions that are fair, inclusive, and equitable so that everyone can share in the benefits.

State of Global Water Resources 2021, World Meteorological Organization

As a first edition of the annual State of Global Water Resources, the report shows how maps and a graphical summary of streamflow and terrestrial water storage in river basins worldwide could look in regular reports on global water resources. These maps are based on modeled data and validated with observed data to the extent possible and remotely sensed information from the NASA GRACE mission for terrestrial water storage. Modeled data was used to achieve maximum geographical coverage. The report includes chapters on major hydrological events in 2021 and a brief overview of cryosphere changes as they related to water resources.


Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it’s frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light”  but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article’s relevance and importance. 

  • Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate

  • The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you’re interested in an article title and it is not listed here as “open access,” be sure to check the link anyway. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn’t to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers’ impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

  • Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a “yes” to this automatically. 
  • Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week’s 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

The section “Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives” includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of “perspectives,” observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

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Journals covered

A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.

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