Skeptical Science New Research for Week #48 2025

Policymaker-led scenarios and public dialogue facilitate energy demand analysis for net-zero futures, Sharmina et al., Nature Energy Open Access 10.1038/s41560-025-01898-3

Politicians’ complicity in ‘Galamsey’ and the contradictions of promoting tree-based climate action in Ghana, Nyantakyi-Frimpong, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2025.2592261

Preface: The role of remote sensing to improve modeling of carbon quantities and quality of carbon credits, Fu et al., Remote Sensing of Environment 10.1016/j.rse.2025.115141

Structural insights into scaffold-guided assembly of the Pseudomonas phage D3 capsid, Belford et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-66648-1

What drives consistent opposition to (and support for) climate policies? The case of Belgium, Gugushvili et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2025.2592814

“Act local, Impact global”: Mapping the social acceptance of offshore wind energy in Greece and advancing social engagement planning processes, Spyridonidou, Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104434

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Classifying climate-related failures for regional-national railway networks, Karbalaie et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100764

Editorial overview: Social limits to climate change adaptation revisited, Puig, Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 10.1016/j.cosust.2025.101591

Climate change impacts on human health

A review of artificial intelligence for predicting climate driven infectious disease outbreaks to enhance global health resilience, Inam, Discover Public Health Open Access 10.1186/s12982-025-01167-4

Conceptualizing the impact of climate change on diarrheal diseases among people living with HIV/AIDS, Lieber, Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100766

Escalated heatwave mortality risk in sub-Saharan Africa under recent warming trend, He et al., Science Advances 10.1126/sciadv.ady7379

Improvements in life expectancy mask rising trends in heat-related excess mortality attributable to climate change, Huber et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-66681-0

[Review] Inclusion of wellbeing impacts of climate change: a review of literature and integrated environment–society–economy models, Schrijver et al., The Lancet Planetary Health Open Access 10.1016/j.lanplh.2025.101375

Climate change & geopolitics

Greta Thunberg and the transnational youth elite in global climate politics: myth or reality?, , Encyclopedia of Earth Sciences Series Open Access 10.1007/978-94-024-0846-1_100186

Ostrom’s framework for exploring participation dynamics within the international climate regime, Javadi, International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics 10.1007/s10784-025-09706-9

Climate change impacts on human culture

Climate-adaptive prediction of wind erosion risks for earthen heritage under multi-scenario futures, Wang et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100763

Non-economic losses and other impacts of climate change affecting women in the tourism industry: a photovoice case study from Kenya’s coast, Atieno, Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1652871

Other

Observed shifts in regional climate linked to Amazon deforestation, Silveira et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02900-2

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

A bibliometric review of research on climate change in Africa, Ilo et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104285

Editorial title: Critical science for the next decade of climate risk management, Parsons et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100770

Policy Inaction Risks Breaching the 2°C Climate Target, Deng et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70614

World leaders must find the courage to end the fossil-fuel age, , Nature 10.1038/d41586-025-03851-6

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Three key near-term actions could bend the warming curve; bringing projected warming below 2?C, Gonzales-Zuñiga et al., Climate Analytics, NewClimate Institute, and the Institute for Essential Services Reform

Under current government climate policies, the world is hurtling towards a catastrophic 2.6°C of warming, with little improvement seen over the last four years. The gap between current and pledged emissions for 2030 and 2035 and the 1.5°C pathway keeps growing. At COP28 in Dubai, 2023, as part of the first Global Stocktake (GST1) discussion, the world’s governments negotiated and agreed on a clear set of 2030 energy and methane goals that aligned with limiting warming to 1.5°C. These included tripling renewable energy capacity, doubling the rate of energy efficiency improvements, and cutting methane emissions—referred to herein as the COP28 Energy and Methane goals. The authors show for the first time the huge climate benefits if governments were to actually implement what they have negotiated and agreed for these three critical energy and methane goals. Tripling renewables, doubling energy efficiency and cutting methane by 2030 and beyond would cut warming rate by a third in 10 years, and halve it by 2040. It would cut projected warming this century significantly (about 0.9?C from 2.6?C to 1.7?C). Scaled up financial support to achieve this will be needed for many poorer countries. Rapidly reducing the rate of warming is critical for adaptation.

2025–2026 Winter Reliability Assessment, North American Electric Reliability Corporation

The authors identify, assess, and report on areas of concern regarding the reliability of the North American Bulk Power System (BPS) for the upcoming winter season. In addition, the authors present peak electricity demand and supply changes and highlights any unique regional challenges or expected conditions that might affect the reliability of the BPS. Two trends affecting resource adequacy across the BPS for the upcoming winter are rising electricity demand forecasts and a continued shift in the resource mix characterized by the retirement of thermal generators and growth in battery resources. After years of flat or low (~1%) peak demand growth, the aggregate peak demand for all NERC assessment areas has risen by 20 GW (2.5%) since the previous winter. Nearly all assessment areas are reporting year-on-year demand growth; some are forecasting increases near 10%. Total BPS resources have also increased since last winter, but by a smaller amount of 9.4 GW. This number includes the net change in generating capacity as well as additional demand response. These demand and resource changes are described in Escalating Winter Demand and Resource Trends sections.

Climate-Change Mitigation in the Agri-Food Value Chain, WWF European Policy Office

Agriculture plays a major role in contributing to climate change. In 2023, the agricultural sector was responsible for over 14% of total EU net emissions. These emissions must be reduced if the EU is to meet its climate neutrality goal and avoid catastrophic environmental consequences. Ensure a fair and just transition by designing participatory, territorial-based transition plans that support farmers and rural communities with tailored financial, technical, and accessible social measures. Reform counter-productive EU legislations such as the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and the Renewable Energy Directive (REDIII) bioenergy rules. Fully implement and enforce the Nature Restoration Regulation and the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry Regulation (LULUCF). Improve carbon removals governance by ensuring that carbon farming and carbon removal credits meet strict environmental standards and are never used to offset emissions in compliance markets such as the Emissions Trading System (ETS). Set ambitious agriculture emissions targets: Introduce a binding, standalone 1.5°C-compatible gross reduction target for agricultural non-CO2 emissions and introduce carbon pricing to operationalize the polluter pays principle.

Heat Legislation in the Southeast: Gaps, Innovations, and Opportunities, Snyder et al., Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability, Duke University

Extreme heat is the fastest-growing weather-related hazard in the United States, posing mounting risks to human health, infrastructure, and economic stability. Nowhere is this threat more urgent than in the Southeastern states, where high humidity, widespread energy poverty, and extensive outdoor labor converge to make the region particularly susceptible to extreme heat’s ill effects. While there have been efforts to review heat governance and local government responses to heat, the authors provide the first multistate review of extreme heat–related legislation across 11 Southeastern states—Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Virginia—from 2014 to 2024. They catalog more than 200 relevant bills, evaluate their success in passing, and assess the extent to which Southeastern legislatures are responding to the public health and economic risks posed by extreme heat.

Counting the Cost: Quantifying the Rising Impacts of Heat-Related Productivity Losses in the United States (2001–2023) Authors, Clark et al., Nicholas Institute for Energy, Environment & Sustainability, Duke University

Extreme heat is increasingly recognized as a major threat to workers’ health and economic productivity. The authors quantify how rising temperatures have eroded US economic productivity over the past two decades, especially in heat-exposed industries. Using high-resolution hourly weather data and multiple labor productivity models, the authors estimate that heat-related productivity losses grew from a model average of $130 billion in 2001 to $220 billion in 2023. These losses have been concentrated in sectors with relatively high exposure to heat, with the construction and manufacturing sectors facing the highest average annual losses—though all sectors have been affected. Geographically, heat has disproportionately affected rural Southern counties, where average annual heat-related losses often exceed 3% of total county gross domestic product. The study sheds new light on heat-economy interactions, showing how both modeling assumptions and local conditions significantly affect estimated impacts, providing critical insights for developing targeted adaptation strategies.

Europe’s push for hydrogen diverts solar and wind potential from Africa, Macuga et al., Global Energy Monitor

216 gigawatts of green hydrogen projects are proposed in 11 countries in Africa, but it’s unclear if the projects are technically or financially feasible. 61% of all prospective utility-scale wind and solar projects on the African continent are for green hydrogen — primarily slated for export to Europe, which has yet to establish a market for it. Small, distributed wind and solar projects have proven effective in addressing energy access in Africa, with millions of Africans benefiting from these projects; meanwhile, hydrogen remains largely hypothetical.

Clean Investment Monitor: Q3 2025 Update, Rhodium Group and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research

In the third quarter of 2025, clean energy and transportation investment in the United States totaled $75 billion, representing the highest quarter of investment on record. This growth, a 9% increase from the previous quarter and an 8% increase from the same period in 2024, was largely driven by unprecedented electric vehicle (EV) sales. Clean investment accounted for 5.3% of total private investment in structures, equipment, and durable consumer goods, a new peak. Retail consumer purchases of EVs and other clean technology (heat pumps, distributed generation, and storage) accounted for more than half of the total at $41 billion. This segment experienced a 19% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 17% increase compared to Q3 2024. By contrast, investments in clean energy technology manufacturing declined for a fourth consecutive quarter to $10 billion, representing a 10% decrease from the previous quarter and a 26% decrease compared to the same period last year. Investments in utility-scale clean electricity and industrial decarbonization technologies increased by 3% quarter-on-quarter to $25 billion, up 15% compared to Q3 2024.

2025 Q3 Durable CDR Market Update – Tacking into the Wind, CDRfyi

Largest Q3 in durable CDR history and second-highest quarter ever, with a total of 8.5 million tons of contracted CDR, accounting for 54% of Q2 volume while also eclipsing the total volume in 2024. There were two megaton-scale deals in Q3, totaling 7.9M tons, both involving Microsoft. They made up 93% of the quarter’s total contracted volume, while 604K tons were contracted by all other companies. Aside from Microsoft, 67 unique purchasers contracted a total of 604K tons in Q3, fifth highest in history. Of which 22 were first-time purchasers. Biomass-based carbon removal companies accounted for 8 of the top 10 suppliers, with 4 based in the Global South.

Climate Ambition and Electricity Affordability: Lessons from Connecticut, Noah Kaufman, The Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University

Rising electricity prices are an obstacle to climate action in many US states. Continuing to pursue ambitious decarbonization goals while ensuring affordable electricity to residents and businesses will require bold policy shifts, with solutions that differ across regions. The author explores specific challenges to decarbonization and electricity affordability in Connecticut, as well as opportunities to decarbonize more affordably. Connecticut has among the highest electricity prices in the nation and a binding commitment to achieve 100 percent zero-carbon electricity by 2040.

A 2,900% Increase in Greenwash: Big Oil Targeted Brazil With Google Ads To Undermine COP30, Climate Action Against Disinformation, C3DS, and Climainfo

The authors analyze digital greenwashing by major oil companies, focusing on their use of Google Ads in the months leading up to COP30. Globally, oil company ads on Google spiked by 218% in October 2025, while ads targeting Brazil increased by 2,900%. The oil sector’s biggest users of Google Ads saw particularly large increases: Saudi Aramco expanded its adverts by 469.2% month-on-month in October, TotalEnergies by 106.5%, and ExxonMobil by 156.3%. BP made the biggest jump in adverts bought at 1,369.2%, from a low base. For adverts shown in Brazil, Petrobras stands out, accounting for almost 70% of total Google Ads, with 665 published in 2025, a considerable increase from the four months before the COP30. To combat the oil industry’s disinformation strategy, it is essential to increase regulatory intervention, including a potential ban on fossil fuel advertising, as well as enhance enforcement and improve transparency and data on digital greenwashing.

The First Virginia Climate Assessment, Ruess et al., George Mason University et al

This report marks the inaugural comprehensive assessment of climate conditions across the Commonwealth of Virginia. While Virginia’s diverse weather and climate patterns have been examined in both local and broader national and global contexts, no prior effort has synthesized the wealth of scholarly research specific to Virginia into a unified resource. The Virginia Climate Assessment provides a science-based evaluation of the ways past, current, and anticipated climates have and will impact Virginia and its people. As the first report of its kind for the state, it provides a collection of evidence-based key messages that have been prepared and extensively reviewed by technical and scientific experts across Virginia and beyond. It is expected to be the first in a series of such assessments, establishing a baseline against which future changes and impacts can be measured and understood, and adaptation effectiveness and resilience can be evaluated.

Clean Jobs North Carolina, E2 et al., E2 et al

North Carolina’s clean energy workforce added 3,254 new workers in 2024, growing three percent and adding jobs at a rate more than six times faster than the state’s overall employment, which grew at less than a half percent. The state ranked eighth for largest clean energy workforce in 2024, with 113,052 clean energy jobs in total. The bulk of the workforce were in the construction and professional services industries, with about 41,300 workers and 34,200 workers respectively. In 2024, clean energy accounted for 57 percent more jobs than fossil fuels in North Carolina while two North Carolina counties made the top 30 list for counties with the most clean energy jobs in the nation: Mecklenburg County (19,732 jobs) and Wake County (17,697 jobs). It is important to note that the jobs data in this report predates the early July 2025 passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which has been forecast to slow clean energy job growth nationwide. It also predates the late July passage of SB266 in the NC General Assembly, which is expected to slow clean energy development in North Carolina. Still, these numbers point to a resilient and increasingly essential industry and workforce. As energy demand grows, North Carolina’s clean energy companies and workers are positioned to play an even greater role in shaping the state’s economic future.

Colorado Climate Workforce Analysis & Plan, Price et al., Colorado Energy Office and Colorado Department of Transportation

Colorado has established statewide targets for the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions relative to 2005 levels, including a 50 percent reduction by 2030, a 65 percent reduction by 2035, and reaching net zero emissions by 2050. The state’s GHG reduction targets are accompanied by planned investments, policy changes, technology deployment targets, and statewide initiatives intended to support decarbonization across different sectors. To ensure Coloradans can take advantage of the career and employment opportunities that investments in decarbonization and clean energy offer, and to avoid potential workforce shortages that may impede implementation of these actions and initiatives, the Colorado Energy Office (CEO) and its partners intend to share resources and develop programs to train new workers, upskill existing workers, and recruit new workers from diverse backgrounds as well as disproportionately impacted communities throughout the state. The purpose of this analysis is to develop a more thorough understanding of this “climate workforce,” including its current composition and expected future needs, as well as to serve as a resource for the CEO and its partners in the implementation of the state’s climate actions. This analysis & plan includes recommendations and strategies for state agencies and partners to use to further advance the expansion of Colorado’s climate workforce.

An Assessment of California Data Centers’ Environmental and Public Health Impacts, Liu et al., Next 10 and the University of California, Riverside

While data centers have long existed in California, the rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has significantly increased demand for new data centers over the last five years, and the pace is expected to increase through the rest of the decade. This explosive growth has led to a corresponding increase in energy demand which has led to increased electricity consumption, carbon emissions, water usage, and public health costs arising from air pollution. The authors show that from 2019 to 2023, health costs from California’s data centers tripled. Projections show that they could rise by another 496% above 2019 and 72% above 2023 levels by 2028 unless strong mitigation policies are enacted. This is the first time the public health impacts from onsite diesel backup generators, which are operated regularly for maintenance and potential demand response beyond actual grid outages and offsite electricity production have been estimated and compiled alongside other impacts for California data centers. Between 2019 and 2023, electricity use by California data centers increased by 95%, with projections showing demand could rise as much as 356% above 2019 and 133% above 2023 levels by 2028. At the high end, data centers could consume 25.3 terawatt-hours of electricity annually, equivalent to the annual electricity consumption of 2.4 million average American households. The total water consumption by data centers in California increased from 25.42 billion liters in 2019 to 49.91 billion liters in 2023 — a 96.4% increase, with projections showing demand could rise as much as 358% above 2019 and 133% above 2023 levels by 2028.

THe Land Gap Report. Transforming global economic governance to meet climate and biodiversity goals, Dooley et al., University of Melbourne

The authors provide an updated assessment of land area required for carbon removal in climate pledges submitted to the UNFCCC up to November 2025. Pledged land for carbon removal now exceeds 1 billion ha – far beyond what is feasible or sustainable. This represents an increase from the Land Gap Report 2022 and the 2023 update which found that 990 million ha of land are required to meet climate pledges submitted by the end of 2023.

Actionable Criteria for Achieving Equitable, Climate-Resilient Water and Sanitation Laws and Policies: Water, Sanitation, and Climate Change in the United States series, Part 4, Campbell-Ferrari et al., Pacific Institute and Center for Water Security and Cooperation

The authors offer the most comprehensive framework to date for assessing whether U.S. laws are supporting or hindering the ability to secure safe, reliable water and sanitation in a changing climate. The authors provide six core legal attributes, 19 criteria, and over 60 actionable legal strategies that can guide communities, legislators, and utilities in advancing laws and policies that improve climate change preparedness and response.

The contribution of offshore wind to grid reliability & resource adequacy, Stover et al., Charles River Associates

The United States is experiencing rapid electricity demand growth driven by data centers, manufacturing, and electrification. Meeting this growth reliably and affordably will depend on how quickly new generation resources can be interconnected and how effectively different technologies complement one another. The authors assess the potential role of offshore wind (OSW) in addressing emerging reliability challenges under these conditions. The authors found that, from a resource adequacy perspective, OSW can provide meaningful capacity value and complementary performance to other generation sources, particularly during winter and nighttime stress periods near coastal load centers. However, the authors also note that OSW faces development challenges, including cost pressures, supply-chain constraints, permitting uncertainty, and declining effective load carrying capability (ELCC) values as more capacity is added to the system.

Protecting homes from climate change, Clive Hamilton, Charles Sturt University

The author conducted public opinion survey exploring what Australians think and how they feel about life on a warmer planet, and how to prepare for it. Experience of extreme weather events varies widely across states and regions. The survey results confirm the wide difference in exposure between residents of the capital cities and the regions, other than in Queensland. They also highlight the extent to which Hobart seems largely exempt from the extreme weather that plagues the mainland. Almost a quarter of Australians say they have modified their homes in the last six years to reduce damage from extreme weather events. Of those, four in ten have taken measures to protect themselves from storms with strong winds, while a quarter have invested in making their homes more resistant to the effects of heatwaves.

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