Skeptical Science New Research for Week #49 2025
Posted on 4 December 2025 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Bedrock uplift reduces Antarctic sea-level contribution over next centuries, van Calcar et al., Nature Communications
The contribution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet to barystatic sea-level rise could be as high as eight metres around 2300 but remains deeply uncertain. Ice sheet retreat causes bedrock uplift, which can exert a stabilising effect on the grounding line. Yet, sea-level projections exclude bedrock adjustment, use simplified Earth structures or omit the uncertainty in climate response and Earth structure. We show that the grounding line retreat is delayed by 50 to 130 years and the barystatic sea-level contribution reduced by 9–23% when the heterogeneity of the solid Earth is included in a coupled ice – bedrock model under different emission scenarios till 2500. The effect of the solid Earth feedback in ice sheet projections can be twice as large as the uncertainty due to differences between climate models. We emphasise that realistic Earth structures should be considered when projecting the Antarctic contribution to barystatic sea-level rise on centennial time scales.
Loss of vegetation functions during the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum, Rogger et al., Nature Communications
The Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) around 56 million years ago was a 5–6°C global warming event that lasted for approximately 200 kyr. A warming-induced loss and a 70–100 kyr lagged recovery of biospheric carbon stocks was suggested to have contributed to the long duration of the climate perturbation. Here, we use a trait-based, eco-evolutionary vegetation model to test whether the PETM warming exceeded the adaptation capacity of vegetation systems, impacting the efficiency of terrestrial organic carbon sequestration and silicate weathering. Combined model simulations and vegetation reconstructions using PETM palynofloras suggest that warming-induced migration and evolutionary adaptation of vegetation were insufficient to prevent a widespread loss of productivity. We conclude that global warming of the magnitude as during the PETM could exceed the response capacity of vegetation systems and cause a long-lasting decline in the efficiency of vegetation-mediated climate regulation mechanisms.
Marine heatwave decimates fire coral populations in the Caribbean, Dell’Antonio et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Marine heatwaves (MHW) are common destructive events affecting coral reefs. After decades of degradation, the shallow reefs of the United States Virgin Islands have been depleted of scleractinian corals, leaving abundant colonies of the hydrozoan fire coral Millepora dominating the coral community. This dominance ended in 2024 after 84% of Millepora colonies over 43 km of shore were killed by a MHW that brought the hottest October in the 36 y since monitoring began. In August 2024, dead Millepora were rare on these reefs, but by March 2025, severe bleaching created a fire coral graveyard. Decimation of the fire coral biotope shows that these short-term coral winners are unlikely to be future reef builders.
Climate Change Favors African Malaria Vector Mosquitoes, van der Deure et al., Global Change Biology
Here, we for the first time estimate the future human exposure to each of six dominant African malaria vector species. Using an extensive mosquito observation dataset, robust species distribution modeling, and climate and land-use data, we investigate the climatic niches of six dominant African malaria vector species and map out their differing responses to climate and land use change across sub-Saharan Africa. Projections of future vector suitability identify three species that are likely to experience a substantial expansion of suitable habitat: Anopheles gambiae, Anopheles coluzzii, and Anopheles nili s.l. By combining these projections with human population density data, we conservatively estimate that approximately 200 million additional people could be living in areas highly suitable for these three vector species by the end of the century, with new hotspots of human exposure emerging in Central and East Africa. Our results align with observed historical range shifts of Anopheles species but stand in contrast to earlier studies that have predicted climate change would have little effect on or even reduce malaria transmission. We find that climate change impacts on malaria vectors are highly species-specific, emphasizing the need for longitudinal field studies and integrated modeling approaches to address the ongoing redistribution of malaria vectors. As the world strives for malaria elimination amidst accelerating climate change, our study underscores the urgent need to adapt malaria control strategies to shifting vector distributions driven by environmental change.
Low-emissions, High Tensions: Social Media Groups and the Escalation of Climate Obstruction, Nadal, Environmental Communication
Backlash against climate policy is rare, but it is growing as policies become more present in everyday life, and resistance is becoming more confrontational. In the UK, this includes property destruction, non-compliance and death threats to public officials. This article explores the role of social media groups in the intensifying backlash through qualitative content analysis of posts in two of the UK’s largest public Facebook groups opposing low-emissions transport schemes promoted as essential for reaching net zero and tackling the climate crisis. Social media is now widely recognized as a key channel for contrarian claims, but diffusion models often still assume one-way flow from elites to the public, overlooking how claims also spread across social media groups via sharing, amplification and users generating evidence to fit frames supplied by organized denial. Although a direct link to offline activity cannot be drawn, the article shows how these groups help legitimize and motivate hostile behavior by glorifying saboteurs as heroes and discrediting policy proponents through dehumanizing language. Misinformation matters, though less by fueling opposition than by muddying policy debate and preventing policies from being judged on their merits. The findings offer insight into the changing nature of climate obstruction, with implications for climate engagement and misinformation response.
From this week’s government/NGO section:
U.S. Climate Litigation During the Biden Years, Margaret Barry, (Sabin Center for Climate Change Law
Using cases collected in the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law’s Climate Litigation Database, the author analyzes the 630 climate change lawsuits filed in United States courts while President Joseph R. Biden was in office. During the Biden administration, the federal government reversed course on the first Trump administration’s climate deregulation and embarked on a “whole-of-government approach to combatting the climate crisis.” Many states and municipalities pursued their own efforts to mitigate and prepare for climate change, while other states undertook climate deregulatory efforts. During the four years of the Biden administration, many areas of the U.S. experienced disasters linked to and intensified by climate change, including hurricanes, extreme heat, and wildfires. This report assesses characteristics of the climate cases filed in federal and state courts during this time period, with these policies and climate events as their backdrop and subject matter. The author’s analysis does not assess the outcomes of these cases, many of which remain pending. Instead the report distills elements of these cases: what goals the litigation aimed to achieve, who the parties were, and the underlying subject matter and substantive law. The analysis — which builds on the Sabin Center’s reports on climate litigation during the first Trump administration — provides a quantitative overview of these characteristics of climate litigation. The author concludes with a discussion of how the trends in U.S. climate litigation may be evolving during the second Trump administration as the U.S. federal government once again reverses course on its climate agenda.
Who Bears the Burden of Climate Inaction?, Clausing et al., Brookings Papers on Economic Activity
Climate change is already increasing temperatures and raising the frequency of natural disasters in the United States. The authors examine several major vectors through which climate change affects U.S. households, including cost increases associated with home insurance claims and increased cooling, as well as sources of increased mortality. Although they consider only a subset of climate costs over recent decades, they find an aggregate annual cost averaging between $400 and $900 per household; in 10 percent of counties, costs exceed $1,300 per household. Costs vary significantly by geography, with the largest costs occurring in some western regions of the United States, the Gulf Coast, and Florida. Climate costs also typically disproportionately burden lower income households. They suggest the importance of research that looks beyond rising temperatures to extreme weather events; so far, natural disasters account for the bulk of the burden of climate change in the United States.
110 articles in 59 journals by 706 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Changes in persistent anticyclonic circulation across Eurasian continent and its linkage with extreme heatwaves, Tong et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105183
Conditions for instability in the climate–carbon cycle system, Clarke et al., Earth System Dynamics Open Access 10.5194/esd-16-2087-2025
Southern Annular Mode dynamics, projections and impacts in a changing climate, Purich et al., Nature Reviews Earth & Environment 10.1038/s43017-025-00746-y
Standardising the “Gregory method” for calculating equilibrium climate sensitivity, Zehrung et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2025-2252
Observations of climate change, effects
A Climatological Perspective on Trends and Variability of Cloudiness over the Amazonian Basin during the Last Decades, Næss et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0747.1
Asymmetric East-West Changes in Mountain Fog Driven by Urbanization and Climate Warming, Chen et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2025jd044293
Changing Northeast India Summer Monsoon Onset Dynamics in a Warming World, Das et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70211
Decreasing frequency and extent of frost damage in European oaks over 1961-2021, Lin et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110927
Rapid Shrinking of the Warming Hole Over the United States in ERA5 and SPEAR, Liu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd044627
Recent sea surface temperature trends hinder Antarctic stratospheric ozone recovery, Hu et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-03042-1
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
A harmonized 2000–2024 dataset of daily river ice concentration and annual phenology for major Arctic rivers, Qiu et al., Open Access 10.5194/essd-2025-607
Dheed: an ERA5 based global database of compound dry and hot extreme events from 1950 to 2023, Weynants et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-17-6621-2025
Methodological Considerations in Climate Attribution: Disparities in Representing the Impact of Climate Change during the 2020–21 Record Breaking Western United States Drought, Graves et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0157.1
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Extratropical Cloud Feedback Constrained by Cloud Sources and Sinks in Cyclones, Werapitiya et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0607.1
Global wildfire patterns and drivers under climate change, Bhattarai et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-22-7591-2025
Projections of Atmospheric Moisture Transport Over South America in a Changing Climate, Avila?Diaz et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70207
Response of Antarctic Circumpolar Current Jets to Southern Hemisphere Westerly Shifts During the 21st Century, Schiavon et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2025jc022897
Water sources and land capacitor effects stimulate observed summer Arctic moistening and warming, Baxter et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-03000-x
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024
Evaluating Physical Climate Model Emulators for Global Warming Projections, Nayak et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl118591
Lessons for multi-model ensemble design drawn from emulator experiments: application to a large ensemble for 2100 sea level contributions of the Greenland ice sheet, Rohmer et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-19-6421-2025
The ICON-based Earth System Model for climate predictions and projections (ICON XPP v1.0), Müller et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2025-2473
Unrecognised water limitation is a main source of uncertainty for models of terrestrial photosynthesis, Biegel et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-22-7455-2025
Cryosphere & climate change
Analysis of the Unprecedented Reduction in Antarctic Sea Ice During the Years 2022–2023, de Azevedo et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70147
Ocean driven retreat of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream following the Last Glacial Maximum, Callard et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-66671-2
Tourism in the Arctic is at risk due to intensifying permafrost degradation, Varnajot & Makopoulou, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02944-4
Velocity and calving response of a major Greenland ice stream to a lake drainage event, Wehrlé et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-025-01858-2
Sea level & climate change
Bedrock uplift reduces Antarctic sea-level contribution over next centuries, van Calcar et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-66435-y
Concurrent warming, freshening and cessation of deep convection in the Labrador Sea raised its sea level to a record high, Yashayaev & Zhang, Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-65747-3
Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Climate and Society in Chinese History, Ren et al., WIREs Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.70032
Expansion of Antarctic Bottom Water driven by Antarctic warming in the last deglaciation, Huang et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-025-01853-7
Loss of vegetation functions during the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum, Rogger et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-66390-8
Low-latitude glaciation in the Cretaceous greenhouse: reviewing the cryosphere reach during an archetypal hothouse Earth, Rodríguez-López et al., Earth Open Access 10.1016/j.earscirev.2025.105351
Ocean driven retreat of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream following the Last Glacial Maximum, Callard et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-66671-2
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
A train of marine heat waves affected benthic local beta but not alpha diversity, Carugati et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107705
Climate change will greatly alter multifaceted biodiversity patterns in goatfish species, Huang et al., npj Biodiversity Open Access 10.1038/s44185-025-00113-6
Climate-driven shifts in marine habitat explain recent declines of Japanese Chum salmon, Alabia et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-025-26397-z
Coral cover and species responses to heat exposure vary across contemporary Western Atlantic reefs, Webb et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-025-28828-3
Decreasing frequency and extent of frost damage in European oaks over 1961-2021, Lin et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110927
Elevated Temperatures Constrain Microbial Metabolism in Benthic and Underlying Sediments of Intermittent Streams, Jiang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2024gl114077
Identifying global marine climate refugia through a conservative approach to ocean biodiversity preservation, Zhuang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-65791-z
Impact of CO2-induced seawater acidification at increased hydrostatic pressure on cellular-level responses of the infaunal nereid Hediste diversicolor, Soko?owski et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107669
Marine heatwave decimates fire coral populations in the Caribbean, Dell’Antonio et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2518506122
Microclimates slow and alter the direction of climate velocities in tropical forests, Soifer et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-025-02496-7
Multi-Decadal Changes in Co-Occurrence of Migrating Landbirds Are Associated With Species-Specific Changes in Phenology and Abundance, DeSimone et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70621
Overcoming barriers to build partnerships for managing plant invasions under global change, Bufford et al., Conservation Biology Open Access 10.1111/cobi.70180
Seasonal and Multidecadal Changes in the Distribution of Small Cetaceans Inhabiting the Western North Pacific Under a Changing Ocean Environment, Inferred From Species Distribution Models, Kanaji et al., Diversity and Distributions Open Access 10.1111/ddi.70113
The role of plant phenology in the response of plant productivity to decadal climate warming and cooling, Wei et al., Journal of Ecology 10.1111/1365-2745.70209
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
A systematic review of carbon accounting in macroalgae, Zhang et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107713
Assessment of CO2 storage potential in global marine sediments based on machine learning methods, Zhang et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105210
Climatic control on soil microbial methane uptake across forest biomes, Kou et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110942
Comparison of Various Machine Learning and Deep Learning Models To Forecast CO2 Emissions, Mu, Journal of The Institution of Engineers (India): Series C 10.1007/s40032-025-01274-w
Contrasting temperature responses of photosynthesis and respiration amplify reduction in carbon sink under water stress conditions in a temperate semi-arid steppe, Li et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110961
German methane fluxes estimated top-down using ICON–ART – Part 1: Ensemble-enhanced scaling inversion, Bruch et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-25-17159-2025
German methane fluxes estimated top-down using ICON–ART – Part 2: Inversion results for 2021, Bruch et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-25-17187-2025
Hydrological processes govern methane flux fluctuations in a subtropical floodplain, Wang et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110965
Identifying and quantifying greenhouse gas emissions with the AVIRIS-3 airborne imaging spectrometer, Coleman et al., Remote Sensing of Environment Open Access 10.1016/j.rse.2025.115058
Identifying hotspots of greenhouse gas emissions from drained peatlands in the European Union, van Giersbergen et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-65841-6
Impact of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Collapse on Dissolved Inorganic Carbon Components in the Ocean, Schmittner & Boling, Global Biogeochemical Cycles 10.1029/2025gb008526
Insights Into the Comprehensive Carbon Cycle in a Mangrove Ecosystem: A Case Study for Understanding Carbon Burial, Outgassing, and Outwelling in a Subtropical Island, Nakamura et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2025jg009232
Integrating surface-based in-situ and satellite observations to characterize CO2 and CH4 emission hotspots in Houston, USA, Karim & Rappenglück, Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2025.121713
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
Thaw slumps alter ecosystem carbon budget in alpine grassland on the Tibetan Plateau, Jiang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-66869-4
The overlooked contribution of the seasonal mixed layer pump to carbon export in low-latitude oceans, Xu et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-65710-2
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
Discussion of Techno-Economic Challenges in Carbon Sequestration, Wang & Sheng, Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology 10.1111/ghg.70001
Legal regulation of environmental risks associated with offshore carbon capture, utilization and storage in China, Wang & Zheng, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2025.2594595
Decarbonization
Biofuel bottlenecks and synthetic fuels: Leveraging aviation for global climate action, Karlsson, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104487
Geoengineering climate
Assessing the efficacy of river-based ocean alkalinity enhancement for carbon sequestration under high emission pathways, Zhu et al., Biogeosciences Open Access 10.5194/bg-22-7293-2025
Response of Tipping Elements to Different Strategies of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection, Zhao et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006736
Aerosols
Deciphering Aerosol Impacts: Unravelling Long-Term AOD Trends and Radiative Forcing Across Key Regions, Gupta et al., Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2025.121693
Negligible contribution from aerosols to recent trends in Earth’s energy imbalance, Park & Soden Soden, Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adv9429
Quantification of the radiative forcing of contrails embedded in cirrus clouds, Seelig et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-66231-8
Synergistic reductions of CO2 and aerosols: Navigating mid-term warming risks for 2 °C climate futures, JIN et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.008
Zero-dimensional contrail models could underpredict lifetime optical depth, Akhtar Martínez et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-25-12875-2025
Climate change communications & cognition
Everywhere you vote, you always take the weather with you: the effects of local temperature anomalies on Green party voting, Haak, Environmental Politics Open Access 10.1080/09644016.2025.2585650
Low-emissions, High Tensions: Social Media Groups and the Escalation of Climate Obstruction, Nadal, Environmental Communication Open Access 10.1080/17524032.2025.2596616
Perceptions of Climate-Related Risk by Indigenous Communities: A Systematic Review, Cervantes Benavides et al., WIREs Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.70033
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Assessment of climate change impacts on crop and irrigation water demand in the Awash River basin of Ethiopia using CMIP6 models, Meskelu et al., Discover Water Open Access 10.1007/s43832-025-00307-w
Carbon dioxide dynamics across three stages of tropical peatland conversion to oil palm plantations, Kiew et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110956
Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Autumn snow expansion and spring divergence in Northeast China (2000–2020), XIAO et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.11.004
A Climatological Perspective on Trends and Variability of Cloudiness over the Amazonian Basin during the Last Decades, Næss et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0747.1
Asymmetric East-West Changes in Mountain Fog Driven by Urbanization and Climate Warming, Chen et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2025jd044293
Beyond species richness: Grazing and fertilisation shape temperate grassland stability through distinct diversity effects, Hu et al., Journal of Ecology 10.1111/1365-2745.70208
Changing Northeast India Summer Monsoon Onset Dynamics in a Warming World, Das et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70211
Correction to “Rolling DICE to advance knowledge of land-atmosphere interactions”, , Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 10.1002/qj.70074
Correction to “Spatiotemporal Prediction of Ideal Butterfly Habitats in Kun-Ming’s Urban Green Areas: Enabled by Maxent and ArcGIS”, , Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.72580
Decreasing frequency and extent of frost damage in European oaks over 1961-2021, Lin et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110927
Insight-Guided Optimization of the Individual Steps in Ambient Slot-Die-Coated Perovskite Solar Cells, Flórez et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research Open Access 10.1002/aesr.202500204
Multiple Sustainable Practices Are Crucial for Enhancing the Provisioning of Agroecosystem Services Worldwide, Medrano et al., Ecology Letters Open Access 10.1111/ele.70276
Rapid Shrinking of the Warming Hole Over the United States in ERA5 and SPEAR, Liu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd044627
Recent sea surface temperature trends hinder Antarctic stratospheric ozone recovery, Hu et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-03042-1
Revealing firn structure at Dome A region in East Antarctica using cultural seismic noise, Song et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2025-1274
Climate change economics
Crisis and Risk Governance of Cross-Regional Embodied Carbon Transfers: A Game Theory and Multi-Agent Network Analysis, Xing et al., Risk Analysis 10.1111/risa.70154
How do developing countries estimate their climate finance needs under the Paris Agreement?, Isah et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103087
Climate change mitigation public policy research
Accounting and monitoring challenges for blue carbon enhancement in national climate policy targets and international carbon markets, Boettcher et al., Carbon Management Open Access 10.1080/17583004.2025.2585895
Assessing the effectiveness of climate assemblies: framework for measuring deliberative impact, Skarzauskiene et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1680125
Corporate net-zero: targets do not add up due to scope 2 and 3 emissions, Dufour et al., Carbon Management Open Access 10.1080/17583004.2025.2589984
Enterprise responses to China’s national emissions trading system: evidence from a nationwide survey, Wang et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2025.2591879
Optimism and pragmatism in mission cities: Exploring narratives for climate neutrality in Stockholm and Amsterdam, Chakravarty et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104468
Who is listening? Comparing 7 cases of citizen participation at different levels of government in the Dutch energy transition, de Vries et al., Energy Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114998
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Bridging community resilience and local planning for climate justice, Best et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100776
Energy efficiency as a driver of climate resilience: global evidence, Umar & Khidmat, Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114993
Groundwater depletion to recovery: Resilience strategies in Ho Chi Minh City under climate change and subsidence pressures, Ha et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104266
Navigating legal labyrinths: empowering climate migrants in urban India, Shafi, Climate and Development 10.1080/17565529.2025.2596328
Transforming climate change adaptation in South Africa: Addressing leadership, governance, and community vulnerability through inclusive strategies and effective leadership, Adom et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104274
Why projects cannot deliver transformative climate change adaptation, Mikulewicz et al., Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2025.2591881
Climate change impacts on human health
A Climatology of Summertime Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature in California’s Imperial Valley, Thompson et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-24-0199.1
Climate Change Favors African Malaria Vector Mosquitoes, van der Deure et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70610
Evaluating the impact of a longitudinal, integrated climate change, health, and environment curriculum in undergraduate medical training at Harvard Medical School, Baker et al., PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000727
International migrant workers, heat exposure, and climate change: a systematic review of health risks and protective interventions, van der Horst et al., Open Access 10.1101/2025.06.04.25328218
Climate change impacts on human culture
Tourism in the Arctic is at risk due to intensifying permafrost degradation, Varnajot & Makopoulou, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02944-4
Voices from the Margins: A Decolonial Analysis of Climate Change Narratives in People’s Archive of Rural India (PARI), Beena et al., Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2025.2596621
Other
Reviewing metrics and indicators for energy, climate, and environmental justice: A synthesis of 25 years of research, Amosi et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104462
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Decolonizing climate action or denying responsibility?, Sengupta, Science Open Access 10.1126/science.aec1849
Forest Carbon Dynamics as a Constraint on Future Land-Use and Land-Cover Change, Zhang & Chen, Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70628
Turning point, Andersson, Frontiers in Statistical Quality Control 8 Open Access 10.1007/3-7908-1687-6_14
Book reviews
Whither the world’s winds, Boon, Science 10.1126/science.aeb1373
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
Comprehensive Reliability Plan. A Report from the New York Independent System Operator, New York Independent System Operator
The authors found that the electric grid is at an inflection point driven by the convergence of three major trends: the rapid growth of large loads, e.g., microchip manufacturing and AI-related data centers; the aging generation fleet; and a lack of new dispatchable generation resources being added to the system. The authors highlight that the future reliability of the grid depends on the development of flexible generation capable of performing during extended periods of high consumer demand and extreme weather. The authors examine lessons-learned from the June 2025 heatwave and the need for a planning framework that better reflects present challenges of operating the grid while anticipating plausible future risks.
Guide to climate scenario analysis for central banks and supervisors – Update, Network for Greening the Financial System
The NGFS long-term climate scenarios are a set of forward-looking pathways designed to explore how the global economy and financial system might evolve under different levels of climate policy ambition and physical climate impacts over the rest of the 21st century. They were developed by the Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS) to provide a consistent analytical basis for assessing climate-related financial risks and opportunities. The four-step process introduced in the first Guide remains a useful organizing principle, but the updated Guide expands each step with new insights, methodologies, and examples.
Renewable Energy, Indigenous Peoples, and Project Siting for Values-Aligned Investors, Tallgrass Institute and Trillium Asset Management
Renewable energy development guided by Indigenous Peoples’ priorities and leadership cultivates both an equitable and reliable energy transition. Specifically, corporate respect for Indigenous Peoples’ self-determination in project siting is critical to achieve an effective and just global energy transition, comprehensive risk management, and long-term project operations. The global shift towards renewable energy grants the private sector an opportunity to rethink traditionally extractive energy project designs and instead adopt a rights-based approach to project siting, which can benefit investors, companies, and Indigenous Peoples. Companies can use five practices that leverage to strengthen protections for Indigenous Peoples’ right including making strong policy commitments; conducting robust due diligence and providing transparent disclosures; building relationships and collaborating with Indigenous Peoples; obtaining free, prior, and informed consent (FPIC); and engaging in benefit sharing.
Sustainability and greening in European higher education, Henriette Stoeber and Michael Gaebel, European University Association
The authors provide the results of a 2025 survey on sustainability and greening that captures a wide range of perceptions and approaches among the 400 higher education institutions that participated from 43 countries. Higher education institutions are key actors in reaching the objectives of the United Nations’ 2030 Agenda. They address sustainability across all missions, including education, research and innovation and the third mission, as well as in their campus organization and management. European universities have become increasingly strategic in this area, with many taking a comprehensive approach regarding the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals, that goes beyond climate and environmental issues. Furthermore, European universities actively seek partnership opportunities on sustainability and greening with their local communities, but also internationally. In addition to individual collaboration activities, networks play an important role, and the authors include an overview of dedicated networks at European and national levels.
Solutions Under the Forest. The Tropical Forest Forever Facility’s Potential for Keeping Fossil Fuel in the Ground, Alice McGown, Leave it in the Ground Initiative
The Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF) is a Brazil-led initiative that aims to provide predictable, results-based financing to countries that maintain their tropical forests, using investment returns from a global endowment. As part of LINGO’s ongoing research, the aim is to understand the extent of fossil carbon beneath forests that the TFFF may cover—quantifying the amount of coal, oil, and gas under tropical moist broadleaf forests and estimating the associated potential CO? emissions that would be avoided by keeping them underground. This analysis combines deposit layers, forest cover data, and Brazilian energy statistics, applying conversion metrics to translate fossil reserves into carbon equivalents. The approach overlays national-level fossil deposit polygons with forest cover to determine, for each TFFF-participating country, how much fossil fuel—and thus how much CO?—could effectively be “under protection” through the TFFF if it were to adopt a pledge of no fossil fuel extraction in its forests.
The weak link Do carbon credits actually accelerate corporate decarbonisation?, Benja Faecks and Jonathan Crook, Carbon Market Watch
A vacuum of evidence exists to prove the claims of market actors that carbon credits purchased on the voluntary carbon market accelerate corporate internal decarbonization. An examination of reality shows that market confidence may be driven by noise, rather than a clear signal. The authors demonstrate that data limitations and potential biases caused by interdependent or reverse-causal relationships make it practically impossible to determine whether carbon credit use actually causes a change in the internal emission reduction efforts of a company. As a result, the prevailing narrative – that carbon credits accelerate emissions cuts – must be considered unsubstantiated. Existing studies are limited by potentially confounding factors, e.g. certain company characteristics that drive both credit use and decarbonization, sample bias, poor data quality, and reverse causality, whereby companies that are already decarbonizing may buy fewer credits. There is anecdotal evidence that overreliance on credits can divert resources away from actions that generate genuine internal mitigation, such as potentially slowing progress through investment and target effects.
Property Insurance and Disaster Risk: New Evidence from Mortgage Escrow Data, Benjamin J. Keys and Philip Mulder, National Bureau of Economic Risk
The authors developed a new dataset to study homeowners insurance using over 74 million premiums from 2014–2024 inferred from mortgage escrow payments. They document rapidly rising premiums and a doubling of the pass-through from disaster risk into premiums. Using variation in correlated wildfire and hurricane exposure, they show that the increase in the risk-to-premium gradient was accelerated by a repricing of catastrophic risk in global capital markets. Premium increases are capitalized into home values, reducing home price growth by over $40,000 in the most exposed zip codes. The premium and home price effects are larger in areas facing rising climate risk.
Environmental Outlook on the Triple Planetary Crisis. Stakes, Evolution and Policy Linkages, The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development
Climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution – the elements of the triple planetary crisis – are inextricably connected. Yet, policies to address them have generally not taken account of their interlinkages. The authors examine in detail the interlocking trends and drivers of climate change, biodiversity loss and pollution, projects how they will evolve through mid-century, and examines policy synergies and trade-offs. They also provide a roadmap to help governments tackle these challenges in a more integrated manner.
U.S. Climate Litigation During the Biden Years, Margaret Barry, (Sabin Center for Climate Change Law
Using cases collected in the Sabin Center for Climate Change Law’s Climate Litigation Database, the author analyzes the 630 climate change lawsuits filed in United States courts while President Joseph R. Biden was in office. During the Biden administration, the federal government reversed course on the first Trump administration’s climate deregulation and embarked on a “whole-of-government approach to combatting the climate crisis.” Many states and municipalities pursued their own efforts to mitigate and prepare for climate change, while other states undertook climate deregulatory efforts. During the four years of the Biden administration, many areas of the U.S. experienced disasters linked to and intensified by climate change, including hurricanes, extreme heat, and wildfires. This report assesses characteristics of the climate cases filed in federal and state courts during this time period, with these policies and climate events as their backdrop and subject matter. The author’s analysis does not assess the outcomes of these cases, many of which remain pending. Instead the report distills elements of these cases: what goals the litigation aimed to achieve, who the parties were, and the underlying subject matter and substantive law. The analysis — which builds on the Sabin Center’s reports on climate litigation during the first Trump administration — provides a quantitative overview of these characteristics of climate litigation. The author concludes with a discussion of how the trends in U.S. climate litigation may be evolving during the second Trump administration as the U.S. federal government once again reverses course on its climate agenda.
ResilientCoasts (Massachusetts). Final Plan, Massachusetts Office of Coastal Zone Management
The plan presents guidance and strategies to address near- and long-term vulnerability to coastal hazards like sea level rise, storm surge, and erosion along the Massachusetts coastline over the next 50 years.
Shaping Resilience in Mountains. The Case for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure, Rodriguez et al., Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure
Mountain regions face severe climate hazards, threatening fragile infrastructure systems. Disaster resilient infrastructure ensures continuity of essential services during crises. Indigenous knowledge and ecosystem-based adaptation complement modern engineering solutions. Multi-hazard risk assessments must guide planning and investment in mountains. Financing resilience requires public-private partnerships and innovative climate funding mechanisms. Collective action is urgent to safeguard lives, livelihoods, and ecosystems.
Who Bears the Burden of Climate Inaction?, Clausing et al., Brookings Papers on Economic Activity
Climate change is already increasing temperatures and raising the frequency of natural disasters in the United States. The authors examine several major vectors through which climate change affects U.S. households, including cost increases associated with home insurance claims and increased cooling, as well as sources of increased mortality. Although they consider only a subset of climate costs over recent decades, they find an aggregate annual cost averaging between $400 and $900 per household; in 10 percent of counties, costs exceed $1,300 per household. Costs vary significantly by geography, with the largest costs occurring in some western regions of the United States, the Gulf Coast, and Florida. Climate costs also typically disproportionately burden lower income households. They suggest the importance of research that looks beyond rising temperatures to extreme weather events; so far, natural disasters account for the bulk of the burden of climate change in the United States.
Toxic Tides. Mapping disproportionate risks at flood-prone hazardous sites, Climate Central
5,500 hazardous facilities along America’s coastlines are expected to be at risk of flooding during a 100-year coastal flood by the end of this century if heat-trapping pollution grows unchecked (RCP 8.5). Cuts to pollution in line with pledged commitments (RCP 4.5) would reduce the number of at-risk sites by 362 (7%). More than two-thirds of the facilities at risk by 2100 will be at risk of inundation during 100-year coastal flood events within the next 25 years, in either pollution scenario.
The Resilience Spread, First Street
The authors analysis reveals that almost one in three of the world’s largest urban economies is already showing measurable signs of economic strain linked to climate-related impacts. These cities face mounting losses in productivity, growth, and asset value as repeated climate shocks erode economic stability and investor confidence. The regions most likely to face intensified effects include many of today’s economic power centers across North America, Western Europe, and East Asia, where acute hazards such as floods and hurricanes intersect with high concentrations of capital and infrastructure. At the same time, chronic pressures like drought and heat are reshaping growth trajectories across emerging markets. Without sustained investment in adaptation and resilience, climate pressures could reduce global productivity by as much as $2.5 trillion by 2100. These losses reflect not only physical damage but also declining efficiency, migration pressures, and the reallocation of resources from growth to recovery.
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