HomeClimate Change NewsSkeptical Science New Research for Week #5 2023

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #5 2023

Skeptical Science New Research for Week #5 2023

Posted on 2 February 2023 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Open access notables

Via PNAS, Ceylan, Anderson & Wood present a paper squarely in the center of the Skeptical Science wheelhouse:  Sharing of misinformation is habitual, not just lazy or biased. The signficance statement is obvious catnip:

Misinformation is a worldwide concern carrying socioeconomic and political consequences. What drives its spread?. The answer lies in the reward structure on social media that encourages users to form habits of sharing news that engages others and attracts social recognition. Once users form these sharing habits, they respond automatically to recurring cues within the site and are relatively insensitive to the informational consequences of the news shared, whether the news is false or conflicts with their own political beliefs. However, habitual sharing of misinformation is not inevitable: We show that users can be incentivized to build sharing habits that are sensitive to truth value. 

In this week’s government/NGO section and produced by the Rocky Mountain Institute, evidence of an inflection point:  Peak fossil fuel demand for electricity; It’s all over except the shouting.

Fairness is outside the scope of geophysics, so even while it may sound as though everybody’s beating up on geoengineering we’re really only hearing due diligence at work. Here’s another paper suggesting we approach solar geoengineering with aerosols with extreme caution and circumspection. Future changes in atmospheric rivers over East Asia under stratospheric aerosol intervention published in Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics by Ju Liang and Jim Haywood leaves us with a strong impression of “more work needed,” with indications of us risking signficant inadvertent hydrometeorological changes by geoengineering in haste. Large populations are on this map.

Carlson et al. remind us that bout two decades ago a landmark paper on contemporary climate change impacts on human health documented an already large negative climate effect. In their PLOS opinion piece The health burden of climate change: A call for global scientific action the authors point out that our current situational awareness of climate effects on health has lagged and grown worse even as it’s certain that numbers from 2003 have grown much larger. As their title implies, they urge redress on what is also a serious climate justice problem.

Technical difficulties

We had a little trouble with academic article database API access for this edition, reflected in truncated or missing sections and papers. As well, although it’s not possible to check every link in this listing we did find a couple of duff entries already; there may be more nonsense destinations hidden in the list. 

81 articles in 43 journals by 497 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Geostrophic flows control future changes of oceanic eastern boundary upwelling
Jing et al., Nature Climate Change, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-022-01588-y

Observations of climate change, effects

Attribution of the July 2021 Record-Breaking Northwest Pacific Marine Heatwave to Global Warming, Atmospheric Circulation, and ENSO
Li et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 10.1175/bams-d-22-0142.1

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Evaluation of the convection-permitting regional climate model CNRM-AROME41t1 over Northwestern Europe
Lucas-Picher et al., Climate Dynamics, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00382-022-06637-y

Cryosphere & climate change Sea level & climate change Paleoclimate Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Climate change in the Arctic: testing the poleward expansion of ticks and tick-borne diseases
McCoy et al., Global Change Biology, Open Access 10.1111/gcb.16617

Consistent responses of coral microbiome to acute and chronic heat stress exposures
Zhu et al., Marine Environmental Research, 10.1016/j.marenvres.2023.105900

Coral reef structural complexity loss exposes coastlines to waves
Carlot et al., Scientific Reports, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-023-28945-x

Effects of hydrological change in fire-prone wetland vegetation: an empirical simulation
Mason et al., Journal of Ecology, Open Access 10.1111/1365-2745.14078

Global vegetation resilience linked to water availability and variability
Smith & Boers, Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-023-36207-7

Natural hybridization reduces vulnerability to climate change
Brauer et al., Nature Climate Change, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-022-01585-1

Recent and future declines of a historically widespread pollinator linked to climate, land cover, and pesticides
Janousek et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2211223120

Reef islands have continually adjusted to environmental change over the past two millennia
Kench et al., Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-023-36171-2

Variability in bat morphology is influenced by temperature and forest cover and their interactions
Wood & Cousins, Ecology and Evolution, Open Access 10.1002/ece3.9695

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Attributing past carbon fluxes to CO2 and climate change: Respiration response to CO2 fertilization shifts regional distribution of the carbon sink
Quetin et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 10.1029/2022gb007478

Carbon footprint assessment and mitigation scenarios: a benchmark model for GHG indicator in a Nigerian University
Adeyeye et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-021-02098-1

Drought-induced increase in tree mortality and corresponding decrease in the carbon sink capacity of Canada’s boreal forests from 1970 to 2020
Liu et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16599

Effects of carbonate minerals and exogenous acids on carbon flux from the chemical weathering of granite and basalt
Li et al., Global and Planetary Change, 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104053

Evaluating Northern Hemisphere Growing Season Net Carbon Flux in Climate Models Using Aircraft Observations
Loechli et al., [journal not provided], Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10512001.1

Megaherbivores modify forest structure and increase carbon stocks through multiple pathways
Berzaghi et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2201832120

Peat decomposition and erosion contribute to pond deepening in a temperate salt marsh
Luk et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 10.1029/2022jg007063

McDonald et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 10.1029/2022jg006923

Temperature effect on erosion-induced disturbances to soil organic carbon cycling
Wang et al., Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01562-8

Using Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) column CO2 retrievals to rapidly detect and estimate biospheric surface carbon flux anomalies
Feldman et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-23-1545-2023

Warming to increase cropland carbon sink
Campo, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01559-3

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Exploring public acceptability of direct air carbon capture with storage: climate urgency, moral hazards and perceptions of the ‘whole versus the parts’
Satterfield et al., Climatic Change, Open Access 10.1007/s10584-023-03483-7


Are there preferable capacity combinations of renewables and storage? Exploratory quantifications along various technology deployment pathways
Michas & Flamos, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113455

Asymmetrical electrohydrogenation of CO2 to ethanol with copper–gold heterojunctions
Kuang et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2214175120

Did innovative city constructions reduce carbon emissions? A quasi-natural experiment in China
Li & Zhao, Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-023-02964-0

Direct seawater electrolysis by adjusting the local reaction environment of a catalyst
Guo et al., Nature Energy, 10.1038/s41560-023-01195-x

Flexible blades to improve Darrieus turbine performance and reduce cost
Kirke & Abdolahifar, Energy for Sustainable Development, 10.1016/j.esd.2023.01.010

Metal oxide barrier layers for terrestrial and space perovskite photovoltaics
Kirmani et al., Nature Energy, 10.1038/s41560-022-01189-1

Peer-to-Peer energy trading, independence aspirations and financial benefits among Nigerian households
Adewole et al., Energy Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113442

Projecting Future Energy Production from Operating Wind Farms in North America. Part I: Dynamical Downscaling
Pryor et al., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 10.1175/jamc-d-22-0044.1

Projecting Future Energy Production from Operating Wind Farms in North America. Part II: Statistical Downscaling
Coburn & Pryor, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 10.1175/jamc-d-22-0047.1

Reliability of onshore wind turbines based on linking power curves to failure and maintenance records: A case study in central Spain
Sanchez?Fernandez et al., Wind Energy, Open Access 10.1002/we.2793

Thermal and chemical reliability of paraffin wax and its impact on thermal performance and economic analysis of solar water heater
Chopra et al., Energy for Sustainable Development, 10.1016/j.esd.2023.01.004

Geoengineering climate

Future changes in atmospheric rivers over East Asia under stratospheric aerosol intervention
Liang & Haywood Haywood Haywood, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-23-1687-2023


Aerosol Effects on Clear-Sky Shortwave Heating in the Asian Monsoon Tropopause Layer
Gao et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2022jd036956

Climate change communications & cognition

Exploring TikTok as a promising platform for geoscience communication
Zawacki et al., Geoscience Communication, Open Access pdf 10.5194/gc-5-363-2022

Public Engagement on Weather and Climate with a Monsoon Fantasy Forecasting Game
Guido et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-22-0003.1

Sharing of misinformation is habitual, not just lazy or biased
Ceylan et al., PNAS, Open Access 10.30885/rie.2018.12.3.041

The climate change risk perception model in the United States: A replication study
Gilbert & Lachlan, Journal of Environmental Psychology, 10.1016/j.jenvp.2023.101969

The role of climate change perceptions and sociodemographics on reported mitigation efforts and performance among households in northeastern Mexico
González-Hernández et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-021-02093-6

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

A leverage points perspective on Arctic Indigenous food systems research: a systematic review
Zimmermann et al., Sustainability Science, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s11625-022-01280-2

Farmers’ perspective towards climate change vulnerability, risk perceptions, and adaptation measures in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan
Shah et al., International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 10.1007/s13762-022-04077-z

High greenhouse gas emissions after grassland renewal on bog peat soil
Offermanns et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109309

Promoting green development of agriculture based on low-carbon policies and green preferences: an evolutionary game analysis
Luo et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-023-02970-2

Rice-animal Co-culture Systems Benefit Global Sustainable Intensification
Cui et al., Earth’s Future, 10.1029/2022ef002984

Small-scale octopus fishery operations enable environmentally and socioeconomically sustainable sourcing of nutrients under climate change
Willer et al., Nature Food, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43016-022-00687-5

Viticulture adaptation to global warming: Modelling gas exchange, water status and leaf temperature to probe for practices manipulating water supply, canopy reflectance and radiation load
Garcia-Tejera et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109351

Warming to increase cropland carbon sink
Campo, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01559-3

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Changes in extreme rainfall events in the recent decades and their linkage with atmospheric moisture transport
Suthinkumar et al., Global and Planetary Change, 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104047

Land-atmosphere coupling constrains increases to potential evaporation in a warming climate: Implications at local and global scales
Kim et al., Earth’s Future, 10.1029/2022ef002886

Streamflow Composition and the Contradicting Impacts of Anthropogenic Activities and Climatic Change on Streamflow in the Amu Darya Basin, Central Asia
Hou et al., Journal of Hydrometeorology, 10.1175/jhm-d-22-0040.1

The evolution of precipitation and its physical mechanisms in arid and humid regions of the Tibetan Plateau
Li et al., Atmospheric Research, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2023.106638

Uncertainty in Future Projections of Precipitation Decline over Mesopotamia
Choi & Eltahir, Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0268.1

Climate change economics

Efficiency evaluation of sustainability indicators in a two-stage network structure: a Nash bargaining game approach
Fathi et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-022-02325-3

Expansion of social networks and household carbon emissions: Evidence from household survey in China
Meng et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113460

Potential exposure and vulnerability to broader climate-related trade regulations: an illustration for LAC countries
Conte Grand et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-023-02958-y

Risk-layering and optimal insurance uptake under ambiguity: With an application to farmers exposed to drought risk in Austria
Birghila et al., Risk Analysis, 10.1111/risa.13884

Stranded assets and sustainable energy transition: A systematic and critical review of incumbents’ response
Firdaus & Mori, Energy for Sustainable Development, Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2023.01.014

The new environmental economics: sustainability and justice
Terwilliger, Environmental Politics, Open Access 10.1080/09644016.2023.2172654

Climate change mitigation public policy research

A carbon tax by any other name: Public benefit funds in the American states
Prasad, PLOS Climate, Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000073

Alternative carbon border adjustment mechanisms in the European Union and international responses: Aggregate and within-coalition results
Clora et al., Energy Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113454

Beyond energy efficiency: Do consumers care about life-cycle properties of household appliances?
Olsthoorn et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113430

Development prospects for energy communities in the EU identifying best practice and future opportunities using a morphological approach
Lowitzsch et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113414

Lessons learned in knowledge co-production for climate-smart decision-making
Rosemartin et al., Environmental Science & Policy, 10.1016/j.envsci.2023.01.010

Minimizing habitat conflicts in meeting net-zero energy targets in the western United States
Wu et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2204098120

Prevention of strategic behaviour in local flexibility markets using market monitoring – Concept, application example and limitations
Jahns et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2023.113427

Research on credit pricing mechanism in dual-credit policy: is the government in charge or is the market in charge?
De Grauwe, The Limits of the Market, Open Access 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198784289.003.0009

The role of climate change perceptions and sociodemographics on reported mitigation efforts and performance among households in northeastern Mexico
González-Hernández et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-021-02093-6

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Interacting adaptation constraints in the Caribbean highlight the importance of sustained adaptation finance
Theokritoff et al., Climate Risk Management, Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100483

Linking Quality of Life and Climate Change Adaptation Through the Use of the Macro-Adaptation Resilience Toolkit
Friedman et al., Climate Risk Management, Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2023.100485

One and done? Exploring linkages between households’ intended adaptations to climate-induced floods
Noll et al., Risk Analysis, Open Access pdf 10.1111/risa.13897

Translating and embedding equity-thinking into climate adaptation: an analysis of US cities
Cannon et al., Regional Environmental Change, 10.1007/s10113-023-02025-2

Typologies of multiple vulnerabilities and climate gentrification across the East Coast of the United States
Best et al., Urban Climate, Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2023.101430


Pathways to climate justice: transformation pathway narratives in the Belgian climate movement
Vandepitte, Sustainability Science, 10.1007/s11625-022-01277-x

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

COP27: From preventing dangerous climate change to salving loss and damage
Harris, PLOS Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000150

Learning from weather and climate science to prepare for a future pandemic
Schemm et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2209091120

Research on public support for climate policy instruments must broaden its scope
Kallbekken, Nature Climate Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01593-1

The health burden of climate change: A call for global scientific action
Carlson et al., PLOS Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000126

Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

The Benefit and Urgency of Planned Offshore Transmission: Reducing the Costs of and Barriers to Achieving U.S. Clean Energy Goals, Pfeifenberger et al., Brattle Group

The authors outline the benefits of starting collaborative planning processes for offshore wind transmission today. The authors highlight how proactive transmission planning for future U.S. offshore wind generation developments will significantly reduce costs, increase grid reliability, minimize environmental and community impact, and help reach clean energy goals in a timely manner.

Accelerating Climate Innovation. A Mechanistic Approach and Lessons for Policymakers, Trancik et al., Massachusetts Institute of Technology

One way to understand and quantitatively model the drivers of underlying progress for a range of technologies—what the authors term the “mechanisms” of technological change. These mechanisms can refer to both specific, measurable changes in a technology, such as increased efficiency or lower input prices, or to more general improvement processes, including research and development and emergent phenomena such as economies of scale. Studying the mechanisms that drive technology improvements such as the exponential reductions in cost observed in recent decades for solar modules and lithium-ion batteries, helps provide insights into how policymakers, researchers, and the private sector can better target these mechanisms to accelerate future technological progress. The authors then review the concepts and methods underlying a mechanism-focused approach to understanding innovation and then demonstrate the application of the approach and the types of insights that can be derived through case studies of three energy technologies: solar photovoltaics, lithium-ion batteries, and nuclear fission power plants.

Climate Change in the American Mind: Politics & Policy, Leiserowitz et al., Yale Program on Climate Change Communication and the George Mason University Center for Climate Change Communication

Some of the survey findings include that more than 4 in 10 registered voters who voted in the 2022 election (45%) say global warming was either “the single most important issue” (2%) or “one of several important issues” (43%) to them when they decided how they would vote; 52% of registered voters say global warming should be a high or very high priority for the president and Congress; and 65% of registered voters say developing sources of clean energy should be a high or very high priority for the president and Congress. Support for clean energy has been declining among Republicans since 2018.

Coal Cost Crossover 3.0: Local Renewables Plus Storage Create New Opportunities for Customer Savings and Community Reinvestment, Riofrancos et al., University of California, Davis

The authors find that the United States can achieve zero emissions transportation while limiting the amount of lithium mining necessary by reducing the car dependence of the transportation system, decreasing the size of electric vehicle batteries, and maximizing lithium recycling. Reordering the U.S. transportation system through policy and spending shifts to prioritize public and active transit while reducing car dependency can also ensure transit equity, protect ecosystems, respect Indigenous rights, and meet the demands of global justice.

Peak fossil fuel demand for electricity; It’s all over except the shouting, Bond et al., Rocky Mountain Institute

The authors show that demand for fossil fuels has peaked in the electricity sector. It will plateau for a few years and be in clear decline by the second half of the decade. The key driver of change is the rapid growth of solar and wind electricity generation on typical S-curves, driven by low costs, a shift of global capital, and the rising ceiling of what is possible. In 2022, solar and wind produced 600–700 TWh of new electricity. Added to the 100–200 TWh from other clean sources makes it enough to meet projected global electricity demand growth of around 700 TWh. The story just gets better and better as solar and wind advance further up the S-curve. Solar and wind generation will increase at least threefold by the end of the decade, pushing fossil fuel electricity into terminal decline.

Quarterly Energy Dynamics Q4 2022, Australian Energy Market Operator

The report provides energy market participants and governments with information on the market dynamics, trends and outcomes during Q4 2022 (1 October to 31 December 2022). The report’s results are compared against other recent quarters, focusing on Q3 2022 and Q4 2021. Geographically, the report covers the National Electricity Market (Queensland, New South Wales, the Australian Capital Territory, Victoria, South Australia and Tasmania; the Wholesale Electricity Market and domestic gas supply arrangements operating in Western Australia; and the gas markets operating in Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria and South Australia.

Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it’s frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light”  but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article’s relevance and importance. 

  • Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate

  • The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you’re interested in an article title and it is not listed here as “open access,” be sure to check the link anyway. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn’t to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers’ impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

  • Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a “yes” to this automatically. 
  • Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week’s 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

The section “Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives” includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of “perspectives,” observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.


Please let us know if you’re aware of an article you think may be of interest for Skeptical Science research news, or if we’ve missed something that may be important. Send your input to Skeptical Science via our contact form.

Journals covered

A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.

Previous edition

The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.

Source link



Please enter your comment!
Please enter your name here

Most Popular

Recent Comments