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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #50 2022


Skeptical Science New Research for Week #50 2022

Posted on 15 December 2022 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Open Access Notables:

Risk of the hydrogen economy for atmospheric methane. Hydrogen promises to be a handy repalcement for certain awkward energy storage situations. How we can produce hydrogen varies from “green” to “blue. As it turns out, we’ll need to pay close attention to how we obtain and distribute hydrogen because even a little leakage can end up causing climate problems, with so-called “blue” hydrogen at risk of being a serious issue. Matteo Bertagni  investigate, beginning with the premise  “It has been long known that H2 emissions may exert a significant indirect radiative forcing by perturbing the concentration of other GHG gases in the atmosphere. This indirect GHG effect of H2 calls for a detailed scrutiny of the global H2 budget and the environmental consequences of its perturbation.”

Review: CO2 capturing methods of the last two decades. Variously trashed as greenwashing or described as a mandatory requirement for healing our climate, CO2 removal has a mixed reputation. But what is it, actually, and how practical are the various flavors? Here’s a handy review article for getting a grip, by Kammerer, Borho & Schmidt. 

In some places, there  will never be “a grid.” Sparse populations and lack of money demand creativity. This unfolds as a lot of details and decisions. Emília Inês Come Zebra et al. show how a lot of numbers come together for making many choices so as to deliver reasonably affordable power in an “island” context, in Scaling up the electricity access and addressing best strategies for a sustainable operation of an existing solar PV mini-grid: A case study of Mavumira village in Mozambique

Can we invent our way into generally being favorable of wind farms yet finding reasons why “no way in my back yard!” will fit inside the same skull? Yes, we can! Of course we can do that— we’re only human!  Anticipating and defusing the role of conspiracy beliefs in shaping opposition to wind farms by Kevin Winter et al. decribes how our reasoning breaks, how it’s hard to fix, but also how our smarts can be made more robust against failure. 

It’s a scant and unreliable comfort (and a refuge of scoundrels) that climate change will extend growing seasons in high latitudes. However, rob Peter, pay Paul; in low latitudes and in certain regions growing seasons will shorten due to excessive temperatures. This will have of course have large negative effects on agriculture. Albert Nkwasa, Katharina Waha & Ann van Griensven review options for remedy, in Can the cropping systems of the Nile basin be adapted to climate change?

In a nutshell, people in the US are moving from areas facing one type of climate risk and straight into other affected regions, only with different specific risks. In their paper Flocking to fire: How climate and natural hazards shape human migration across the United States Clark, Nkonya & Galford examine these accidental choices and offer advice to policymakers. 

Desperate times require desperate measures, but calm down and think? In Reply to Ruhl and Craig: Assessing and governing extreme climate risks needs to be legitimate and democratic, the authors of the paper Climate Endgame find much to agree with but draw a line: “We disagree that anticipatory governance should involve nondemocratic development of policy responses, including publicly unpalatable and potentially draconian interventions such as forced relocation. Large-scale technocratic approaches have a track record of backfiring. Moreover, the need for open democratic policy responses has been a key point of agreement across most replies to Climate Endgame.”

Some intentional hits, some accidental hits and a lot of misses. That’s what Hoeben, Otto & Chersich discover when they take a close peek at Europe’s execution when it comes to plannig the intersection between public health and climate change, in  Integrating public health in European climate change adaptation policy and planning.

A quite disturbing finding: Yali Liang et al. suggest by careful analysis that over 25% of preterm births in China are already attibutable to our warming climate. And of course we’re just getting started. Covered in  The burden of heatwave-related preterm births and associated human capital losses in China, just published in Nature Communications. 

163 articles in 70 journals by 1,261 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Low-Level Circulation and Its Coupling with Free-Tropospheric Variability as a Mechanism of Spontaneous Aggregation of Moist Convection
Yanase et al., Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, 10.1175/jas-d-21-0313.1

Modification of North Atlantic Deep Water by Pacific/Upper Circumpolar Deep Water in the Argentine Basin
Brand et al., [journal not provided], 10.1002/essoar.10511288.1

Observations of climate change, effects

Accelerated growth rates of Norway spruce and European beech saplings from Europe’s temperate primary forests are related to warmer conditions
Marchand et al., SSRN Electronic Journal, 10.2139/ssrn.4058783

Attribution of the Subsurface Temperature Change in the Southern Hemisphere
Chen & Cheng, Journal of Physical Oceanography, 10.1175/jpo-d-21-0226.1

Elevation-dependent changes in the trend of reference evapotranspiration in the Tibetan Plateau during 1960–2017
Chang et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7964

Rapid surface warming of the Pacific Asian marginal seas since the late 1990s
Wang & Wu, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 10.1029/2022jc018744

Recent calamitous climate change in India (1990–2019)
Bhargavi et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-022-04311-1

Recent global decline in rainfall interception loss due to altered rainfall regimes
Lian et al., Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-022-35414-y

Response of the Ryukyu Current to climate change during 1993–2018: Is there a robust trend?
Liu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 10.1029/2022jc018957

Significant increase in natural disturbance impacts on European forests since 1950
Patacca et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16531

Temporally extended satellite-derived surface air temperatures reveal a complete warming picture on the Tibetan Plateau
Qin et al., Remote Sensing of Environment, 10.1016/j.rse.2022.113410

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

A synopsis of AIRS global-mean clear-sky radiance trends from 2003 to 2020
Huang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2022jd037598

Climate change detection and attribution using observed and simulated tree-ring width
Franke et al., Climate of the Past, Open Access pdf 10.5194/cp-18-2583-2022

The main inherent uncertainty sources in trend estimation based on satellite remote sensing data
Wen et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-022-04312-0

The Worldwide C3S CORDEX Grand Ensemble: A Major Contribution to Assess Regional Climate Change in the IPCC AR6 Atlas
Diez-Sierra et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-22-0111.1

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Aerosol sensitivity simulations over East Asia in a convection-permitting climate model
Li et al., Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-022-06620-7

Antarctic Ice-Sheet Meltwater Reduces Transient Warming and Climate Sensitivity Through the Sea-Surface Temperature Pattern Effect
Dong et al., Geophysical Research Letters, Open Access 10.1029/2022gl101249

CMIP6 Models Trend Toward Less Persistent European Blocking Regimes in a Warming Climate
Dorrington et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100811

Consistent Timing of Arctic Permafrost Loss Across the CESM1 Large Ensemble
McSweeney & Kooperman, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100864

Future Köppen-Geiger climate zones over Southeast Asia using CMIP6 Multimodel Ensemble
Hamed et al., Atmospheric Research, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106560

Historical and projected relationships between the Tibetan Plateau summer monsoon and precipitation in Central Asia based on multi-CMIP6 models
Lu et al., Atmospheric Research, Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106564

How desertification in northern China will change under a rapidly warming climate in the near future (2021–2050)
Yang et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-022-04315-x

Impact of climatic and vegetation dynamic change on runoff over the Three Rivers Source Region based on the Community Land Model
Deng et al., Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-022-06619-0

Impacts of the strengthened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation on the North Atlantic sea surface temperature: mean state
Ma & Jiang, Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-022-06605-6

Link between the Land–Sea Thermal Contrast and the Asian Summer Monsoon
Zuo & Zhang Ding, Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0944.1

Net Equatorward Shift of the Jet Streams When the Contribution From Sea-Ice Loss Is Constrained by Observed Eddy Feedback
Screen et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100523

The Worldwide C3S CORDEX Grand Ensemble: A Major Contribution to Assess Regional Climate Change in the IPCC AR6 Atlas
Diez-Sierra et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-22-0111.1

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Equatorial Pacific pCO2 Interannual Variability in CMIP6 Models
Wong et al., [journal not provided], Open Access 10.1002/essoar.10512730.1

HORAYZON v1.2: an efficient and flexible ray-tracing algorithm to compute horizon and sky view factor
Steger et al., Geoscientific Model Development, Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-15-6817-2022

Impact of Tropical Cyclone Wind Forcing on the Global Climate in a Fully Coupled Climate Model
Li et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0211.1

Implementation of a Discrete Dipole Approximation Scattering Database into Community Radiative Transfer Model
Moradi et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2022jd036957

Interaction between cloud–radiation, atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamics based on observational data from GoAmazon 2014/15 and a cloud-resolving model
Gonçalves et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-22-15509-2022

Inter-Model Differences in Future Summer Onset Over the Northern High Latitudes
Park et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100739

Link between the time-space behavior of rainfall and 3D dynamical structures of equatorial waves in global convection-permitting simulations
Jung & Knippertz, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100973

Low-Level Cloud Budgets across Sea Ice Edges
Zheng & Ming, Journal of Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0301.1

Probabilistic prediction of ENSO over the past 137 years using the CESM model
Liu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 10.1029/2022jc019127

Systematic Evaluation of a High-Resolution CLM5 Simulation over Continental China for 1979–2018
Ma & Wang, Journal of Hydrometeorology, 10.1175/jhm-d-22-0051.1

Cryosphere & climate change

An assessment of basal melt parameterisations for Antarctic ice shelves
Burgard et al., [journal not provided], Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-egu22-2773

Inventory and Frequency of Retrogressive Thaw Slumps in Permafrost Region of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau
Luo et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl099829

Progress and challenges in glacial lake outburst flood research (2017–2021): a research community perspective
Emmer et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/nhess-2022-143

Seasonal patterns of Greenland ice velocity from Sentinel-1 SAR data linked to runoff
Solgaard et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100343

Paleoclimate

A Modeling Perspective on the Lingering Glacial Sea Surface Temperature Conundrum
Krätschmer et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100378

Earlier onset and shortened Meiyu season during the Last Interglacial based on dynamical downscaling simulations
Jiang et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl101048

Impact of Eocene-Oligocene Antarctic glaciation on the paleoceanography of the Weddell Sea
Hojnacki et al., Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 10.1029/2022pa004440

Intensification of the East Australian Current after ∼1400 CE
Zhai et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100945

New perspectives on historical climatology
White et al., WIREs Climate Change, Open Access 10.1002/wcc.808

Towards new and independent constraints on global mean sea-level highstands during the last glaciation (Marine Isotope Stage 3, 5a, and 5c)
Pico, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 10.1029/2022pa004560

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

A multi-level exploration of the relationship between temperature and species diversity: Two cases of marine phytoplankton
Gao & Su, Ecology and Evolution, 10.1002/ece3.9584

Cambial phenology and wood formation of Korean pine in response to climate change in Changbai Mountain, Northeast China
Qian et al., Dendrochronologia, 10.1016/j.dendro.2022.126045

Carbon uptake by Douglas-fir is more sensitive to increased temperature and vapor pressure deficit than reduced rainfall in the western Cascade Mountains, Oregon, USA
Jarecke et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109267

Disentangling temperature and water stress contributions to trends in isoprene emissions using satellite observations of formaldehyde, 2005–2016
Strada et al., Atmospheric Environment, 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2022.119530

Disentangling the effects of microalgal diversity and thermal history on freshwater phototrophic biofilms facing heat stress: A thermal dose approach
Courcoul et al., Journal of Ecology, 10.1111/1365-2745.14058

Do trade-offs govern plant species’ responses to different global change treatments?
Langley et al., Ecology, Open Access pdf 10.1002/ecy.3626

Effects of climate and land-cover change on the conservation status of gibbons
Yang et al., Conservation Biology, 10.1111/cobi.14045

Effects of climate-change scenarios on the distribution patterns of Castanea henryi
Xie et al., Ecology and Evolution, 10.1002/ece3.9597

Global warming modifies the seasonal distribution of clutches on a Mediterranean great tit population
Solís et al., International Journal of Biometeorology, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00484-022-02415-x

Impacts of climate change on species distribution patterns of Polyspora sweet in China
Fan et al., Ecology and Evolution, 10.1002/ece3.9516

Impacts of extreme climatic events on trophic network complexity and multidimensional stability
Polazzo et al., Ecology, 10.1002/ecy.3951

Interannual variability of the initiation of the phytoplankton growing period in two French coastal ecosystems
Poppeschi et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-2022-86

Linking Climate Sensitivity of Plant Phenology to Population Fitness in Alpine Meadow
Song et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 10.1029/2022jg007008

Marine phytoplankton community data and corresponding environmental properties from eastern Norway, 1896–2020
Lundsør et al., Scientific Data, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41597-022-01869-3

Maternal effects and the legacy of extreme environmental events for wild mammals
LaSharr et al., Ecology, 10.1002/ecy.3953

Mechanistic forecasts of species responses to climate change: the promise of biophysical ecology
Briscoe et al., Global Change Biology, Open Access pdf 10.1111/gcb.16557

Multiple global change drivers show independent, not interactive effects: a long-term case study in tallgrass prairie
Koerner et al., Oecologia, 10.1007/s00442-022-05295-5

Mutualisms in a warming world: How increased temperatures affect the outcomes of multimutualist interactions
Magnoli et al., Ecology, 10.1002/ecy.3955

Potential distribution prediction of Amaranthus palmeri S. Watson in China under current and future climate scenarios
Zhang et al., Ecology and Evolution, 10.1002/ece3.9505

Thermal responses in global marine planktonic food webs are mediated by temperature effects on metabolism
Archibald et al., [journal not provided], 10.1002/essoar.10511464.1

Warming signals in temperate reef communities following more than a decade of ecological stability
Soler et al., Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, Open Access 10.1098/rspb.2022.1649

Wildlife in climate refugia: Mammalian diversity, occupancy, and tiger distribution in the Western Himalayas, Nepal
Thapa et al., Ecology and Evolution, 10.1002/ece3.9600

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

Atmospheric methane isotopes identify inventory knowledge gaps in the Surat Basin, Australia, coal seam gas and agricultural regions
Kelly et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2022-552

Author Correction: Improved winter data coverage of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink from extrapolation of summertime observations
Mackay et al., Communications Earth & Environment, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-022-00637-w

Consistent centennial-scale change in European sub-Arctic peatland vegetation towards Sphagnum dominance – implications for carbon sink capacity
Piilo et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16554

Effects of Shifting Spring Phenology on Growing Season Carbon Uptake in High Latitudes
Zheng et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 10.1029/2022jg006900

Environmental and hydrologic controls on sediment and organic carbon export from a subalpine catchment: insights from a time series
Schwab et al., Biogeosciences, Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-19-5591-2022

High trophic level feedbacks on global ocean carbon uptake and marine ecosystem dynamics under climate change
Dupont et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16558

Risk of the hydrogen economy for atmospheric methane
Bertagni et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-35419-7

Trend prediction of carbon peak in China’s animal husbandry based on the empirical analysis of 31 provinces in China
Cheng & Yao Yao, Environment, Development and Sustainability, Open Access 10.1007/s10668-022-02794-6

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

Controlling potential far-field brine leakage from CO2 storage formations using deep extraction wells: Numerical and experimental testing
Askar & Illangasekare, Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, 10.1002/ghg.2194

Electric Double Layer Structure in Electrocatalytic Carbon Dioxide Reduction
Luo et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research, 10.1002/aesr.202200148

Life cycle assessment of carbon capture and storage in saline aquifers for coal-fired power generation: An Indian scenario
Gupta et al., Greenhouse Gases: Science and Technology, 10.1002/ghg.2198

Review: CO2 capturing methods of the last two decades
Kammerer et al., International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13762-022-04680-0

Decarbonization

Advancing convergence research: Renewable energy solutions for off-grid communities
Moran et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2207754119

Carbon Nanomaterials-Enabled High-Performance Supercapacitors: A Review
Li et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research, 10.1002/aesr.202200152

Empowering onshore wind energy: A national choice experiment on financial benefits and citizen participation
le Maitre et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113362

Flexible Freestanding Thin Polyethylene Oxide-Based Film as Artificial Solid–Electrolyte Interface to Protect Lithium Metal in Lithium–Sulfur Batteries
Grotkopp et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research, 10.1002/aesr.202200146

Production and recycling of new energy vehicle power batteries under channel encroachment and government subsidy
Liu & Wang, Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-022-02759-9

Projection of fuel cell electric vehicle demand reflecting the feedback effects between market conditions and market share affected by spatial factors
Ko & Shin, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113385

Quantification of wind turbine energy loss due to leading-edge erosion through infrared-camera imaging, numerical simulations, and assessment against SCADA and meteorological data
Panthi & Iungo, Wind Energy, 10.1002/we.2798

Scaling up the electricity access and addressing best strategies for a sustainable operation of an existing solar PV mini-grid: A case study of Mavumira village in Mozambique
Zebra et al., Energy for Sustainable Development, Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2022.11.012

Strain Relaxation for Perovskite Lattice Reconfiguration
Jin et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research, 10.1002/aesr.202200143

Surface coating by mechanofusion modulates bulk charging pathways and battery performance of Ni-rich layered cathodes
Hou et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2212802119

Wind plant power maximization via extremum seeking yaw control: A wind tunnel experiment
Kumar et al., Wind Energy, 10.1002/we.2799

Geoengineering climate

A Controlled Experiment of Surface Albedo Modification to Reduce Ice Melt
Johnson et al., Earth’s Future, 10.1029/2022ef002883

Climate change communications & cognition

Anticipating and defusing the role of conspiracy beliefs in shaping opposition to wind farms
Winter et al., Nature Energy, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41560-022-01164-w

Climate nationalisms: Beyond the binaries of good and bad nationalism
Kashwan et al., WIREs Climate Change, 10.1002/wcc.815

Diverging Beliefs on Climate Change and Climate Policy: The Role of Political Orientation
Knollenborg & Sommer, Environmental and Resource Economics, 10.1007/s10640-022-00747-1

Envisioning climate change debates and policies through the tension triangle lens
Nshakira-Rukundo, PLOS Climate, Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000109

Following the money: trade associations, political activity and climate change
Brulle & Downie , Climatic Change, Open Access 10.1007/s10584-022-03466-0

Global Warming’s Five Germanys – Revisited and Framed in an International Context
Klinger et al., Environmental Communication, 10.1080/17524032.2022.2153897

Skill and self-knowledge: empirical refutation of the dual-burden account of the Dunning–Kruger effect
McIntosh et al., Royal Society Open Science, Open Access 10.1098/rsos.191727

The Communication of Value Judgements and its Effects on Climate Scientists’ Perceived Trustworthiness
Cologna et al., Environmental Communication, 10.1080/17524032.2022.2153896

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

An Information-Theoretic Approach to Reconciling Historical Climate Observations and Impacts on Agriculture
Mauerman et al., Weather, Climate, and Society, 10.1175/wcas-d-22-0019.1

Can the cropping systems of the Nile basin be adapted to climate change?
Nkwasa et al., Regional Environmental Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-022-02008-9

Changes in soil greenhouse gas concentrations induced by plastic film mulching in a hot pepper–radish rotation
Chen et al., International Journal of Environmental Science and Technology, 10.1007/s13762-022-04698-4

Climate change impacts on non-timber forest products: NTFP-dependent community responses from India
Magry et al., Climate and Development, 10.1080/17565529.2022.2152639

Climate change impacts on winter chill in Mediterranean temperate fruit orchards
Fernandez et al., Regional Environmental Change, 10.1007/s10113-022-02006-x

Climate driven shifts in the synchrony of apple (Malus x domestica Borkh.) flowering and pollinating bee flight phenology
Wyver et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109281

Factors associated with farmers’ use of indigenous and scientific climate forecasts in Rwenzori region, Western Uganda
Nkuba et al., Regional Environmental Change, 10.1007/s10113-022-01994-0

Iron reduction controls carbon mineralization in aquaculture shrimp pond sediments in subtropical estuaries
Tan et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, 10.1029/2022jg007081

Landscape Change Affects Soil Organic Carbon Mineralization and Greenhouse Gas Production in Coastal Wetlands
Yang et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 10.1029/2022gb007469

Potential distribution prediction of Amaranthus palmeri S. Watson in China under current and future climate scenarios
Zhang et al., Ecology and Evolution, 10.1002/ece3.9505

Prediction of near-term climate change impacts on UK wheat quality and the potential for adaptation through plant breeding
Fradgley et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16552

Smallholder farms have and can store more carbon than previously estimated
Ewing et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16551

Studies from global regions indicate promising avenues for maintaining and increasing soil organic carbon stocks
Rumpel et al., Regional Environmental Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-022-02003-0

The temporary effect of weed-cover maintenance on transpiration and carbon assimilation of olive trees
Aranda-Barranco et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109266

Trend prediction of carbon peak in China’s animal husbandry based on the empirical analysis of 31 provinces in China
Cheng & Yao Yao, Environment, Development and Sustainability, Open Access 10.1007/s10668-022-02794-6

Understanding farmers’ perception of climate change and adaptation practices in the marshlands of South Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo
Mushagalusa Balasha et al., Climate Risk Management, Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100469

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

Analysis of maximum precipitation in Thailand using non-stationary extreme value models
Prahadchai et al., Atmospheric Science Letters, 10.1002/asl.1145

Climate Change Impacts on Extreme Rainfall in Eastern Africa in a Convection-Permitting Climate Model
Chapman et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-21-0851.1

Climate change projections of continental-scale streamflow across the Mississippi River Basin
Lewis et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00704-022-04243-w

Climate-smart harvesting and storing of water: The legacy of dhaka pits at Great Zimbabwe
Pikirayi et al., Anthropocene, Open Access 10.1016/j.ancene.2022.100357

Moisture-budget drivers of global projections of meteorological drought from multiple GCM large ensembles
Norris et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2022jd037745

Recent global decline in rainfall interception loss due to altered rainfall regimes
Lian et al., Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-022-35414-y

Climate change economics

A Green Fiscal Pact for the EU: increasing climate investments while consolidating budgets
Darvas & Wolff, Climate Policy, 10.1080/14693062.2022.2147893

Estimating and forecasting the impact of nonrenewable energy prices on US renewable energy consumption
Atems et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113374

The impact of climate risk on credit supply to private and public sectors: an empirical analysis of 174 countries
Li et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-022-02827-0

The role of economic globalization in reducing CO2 emissions: implications for sustainable development in South Asian nations
Mehmood, Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-022-02823-4

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Assessing Californians’ awareness of their daily electricity use patterns
Zanocco et al., Nature Energy, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41560-022-01156-w

Broadening the social acceptance of wind energy – An Integrated Acceptance Model
Hübner et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113360

Clean heating: Reforming taxes and levies on heating fuels in Europe
Rosenow et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113367

Crowdsourcing social acceptance: Why, when and how project developers offer citizens to co-invest in wind power
Knauf & Wüstenhagen, Energy Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113340

Does high-speed rail reduce local CO2 emissions in China? A counterfactual approach
Yan & Park Park, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113371

Empowering onshore wind energy: A national choice experiment on financial benefits and citizen participation
le Maitre et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113362

Market strategy options to implement Thailand demand response program policy
Sonsaard et al., Energy Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113388

Reply to Gagnon et al.: Short-run estimates vs. long-run conjectures
Holland et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2214219119

Short-run marginal emission rates omit important impacts of electric-sector interventions
Gagnon et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2211624119

Tecno-economic evaluation of residential PV systems under a tiered rate and net metering program in the Dominican Republic
Garabitos Lara et al., Energy for Sustainable Development, Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2022.11.007

The environmental effects of the “twin” green and digital transition in European regions
Bianchini et al., Environmental and Resource Economics, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10640-022-00741-7

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Application of a decision-making framework for multi-objective optimisation of urban heat mitigation strategies
Qi et al., Urban Climate, Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101372

Conducting Climate Change Risk Assessments for Companies: Lessons Learned
Teale & Quiring, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Open Access pdf 10.1175/bams-d-21-0339.1

Designing extreme climate change scenarios for anticipatory governance
Ruhl & Craig, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2216155119

Ecological Calendars, Food Sovereignty, and Climate Adaptation in Standing Rock
Ruelle et al., GeoHealth, 10.1029/2022gh000621

Estimating Household Preferences for Coastal Flood Risk Mitigation Policies under Ambiguity
Ha et al., Earth’s Future, 10.1029/2022ef003031

Exploring the benefits and dis-benefits of climate migration as an adaptive strategy along the rural-peri-urban continuum in Namibia
Thorn et al., Regional Environmental Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-022-01973-5

Flocking to fire: How climate and natural hazards shape human migration across the United States
Clark et al., Frontiers in Human Dynamics, Open Access pdf 10.3389/fhumd.2022.886545

Irrigation development under uncertainty: A call for adaptive investment pathways
Prasad et al., Environmental Science & Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2022.11.017

Landscape adaptation to climate change: Local networks, social learning and co-creation processes for adaptive planning
Galan et al., Global Environmental Change, Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102627

Monetary evaluation of co-benefits of nature-based flood risk reduction infrastructure to promote climate justice
Stroud et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 10.1007/s11027-022-10037-2

Nature-based solutions for climate change adaptation are not located where they are most needed across the Alps
Dubo et al., Regional Environmental Change, 10.1007/s10113-022-01998-w

Reply to Ruhl and Craig: Assessing and governing extreme climate risks needs to be legitimate and democratic
Kemp et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2217404119

Climate change impacts on human health

Integrating public health in European climate change adaptation policy and planning
Hoeben et al., Climate Policy, Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2022.2143314

Is Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus) going to become homodynamic in Southern Europe in the next decades due to climate change?
Del Lesto et al., Royal Society Open Science, 10.1098/rsos.220967

Residential and Race/Ethnicity Disparities in Heat Vulnerability in the United States
Manware et al., GeoHealth, 10.1029/2022gh000695

The burden of heatwave-related preterm births and associated human capital losses in China
Zhang et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-35008-8

Climate change impacts on human culture

Heritage sites, climate change, and urban science
Smith et al., Urban Climate, Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101371

Linking gender, climate change and security in the Pacific Islands Region: A systematic review
Howard, Ambio, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13280-022-01813-0

Other

Challenging the values of the polluter elite: A global consequentialist response to Evensen and Graham’s (2022) ‘The irreplaceable virtues of in-person conferences’
Whitmarsh & Kreil, Journal of Environmental Psychology, 10.1016/j.jenvp.2022.101881

On the atmospheric background for the occurrence of three heat wave types in East China
Xie & Zhou, Weather and Climate Extremes, Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100539

Routine Reversal of the AMOC in an Ocean Model Ensemble
Dewar et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100117

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

Advancing convergence research: Renewable energy solutions for off-grid communities
Moran et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2207754119

Explaining China’s climate in 2021
SUN et al., Advances in Climate Change Research, Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2022.12.001

Research Priorities for Climate Litigation
Wentz et al., Earth’s Future, 10.1029/2022ef002928

Book reviews

Global governance of the environment, indigenous peoples and the rights of nature
Etchart, [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.1007/978-3-030-81519-6


Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Climate Change, Slow-Onset Disasters, and the Federal Emergency Management Agency, Horn et al., Congressional Research Service

The United States is already experiencing certain effects of climate change, including high-temperature extremes and heavy precipitation events. The U.S. Global Change Research Program, among other bodies, expects these trends to continue and intensify, likely resulting in more severe and frequent “slow-onset” events (e.g., drought; sea level rise), compound disasters (e.g., extreme rainfall combined with coastal flooding), and cascading events (e.g., mudslides caused by flooding after wildfires). Such events may not have clearly defined start or end dates, and cumulative damage may not be immediately apparent. Congress may consider the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA’s) role in addressing these incidents. FEMA administers federal disaster relief authorized under the Robert T. Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act. Although FEMA does not have an explicit mission to address climate change, the agency is increasing its activities related to nationwide adaptation to some of its effects, including extreme weather events. The authors highlight issues FEMA may face when activating the Stafford Act for slow-onset events endemic to a changing climate. Slow-onset disasters are not mentioned or defined in the Stafford Act, FEMA’s regulations, or guidance, nor are they included in existing emergency or major disaster definitions.

Big Tech’s dirty secret. How Big Tech’s toxic business model undermines action against climate change, Susie Alegre, Global Action Plan

While there is much good work underway to expose and challenge climate mis- and disinformation online, addressing Big Tech’s multidimensional climate problem requires climate activists to turn their attention to the toxic business model that lies beneath the twin pillars of algorithmic recommender systems and surveillance advertising. Big Tech billionaires are the oil barons of the 21st century and their impact on climate change is no less destructive. Huge emissions from massive data centers are just the tip of the iceberg. Emissions from surveillance-based online advertising are immense, growing, and inherently wasteful. The pollution of the online information environment makes it impossible to focus minds on clear, comprehensive, and coherent action to tackle climate change. And the Big Tech business model tilts the political playing field around the world in ways that pose a direct threat to environmental and climate action through democratic capture, surveillance and lobbying power. These issues in isolation are all hugely problematic. Taken together, they expose Big Tech as a foundational blocker to meaningful climate action.

Security For All: Demilitarizing Our Climate Narratives, Common Defense

This short briefing is produced by climate advocates, military veterans, defense policy thinkers, and human rights experts. It is intended to highlight the danger of making arguments for climate action based on migration, and to further identify some limitations and risks for national security framing more broadly. Finally, they offer alternative pathways for climate advocates to effectively engage with national security issues.

POLL RESULTS: Minnesota voters want state lawmakers to take action to address climate change and the issue generates political gains for candidates who support such action, Andrew Baumann and Katie Drapcho,, Global Strategy Group

A survey of likely Minnesota voters conducted by the authors in September 2022 not only finds that Minnesotans want state lawmakers to take action to reduce carbon emissions and tackle climate change, but also that such actions would give candidates who support strong climate action a political boost (and would damage candidates who oppose such action) with key voting blocs around the state – even after voters are exposed to a balanced debate on the topic. Large majorities of Minnesota voters think that lawmakers should support policies to encourage more clean energy and implement stronger limits on pollution, in part because Minnesota voters agree that climate change is threatening Minnesota’s agricultural economy, rural communities, and clean water. Minnesota voters also reject the premise that clean energy is mutually exclusive with a strong economy. Instead, they agree that transitioning to clean energy will be good for Minnesota’s economy and save families money.

2022 Standard Scenarios Report: A U.S. Electricity Sector Outlook, Awara et al., National Renewable Energy Laboratory

The authors identify a range of possible futures for the U.S. electricity sector while seeking to illuminate specific energy system issues and discussing future trends in outcomes such as energy technology deployment and production, energy costs, and emissions. The authors summarize 70 forward-looking scenarios of the U.S. electricity sector that have been designed to capture a wide range of possible futures.

Investigation of Fossil Fuel Industry Disinformation, Carolyn Maloney and Ro Khanna, Committee on Oversight and Reform, US House of Representatives

Today, the Committee is releasing additional documents obtained in the Committee’s investigation. These documents demonstrate how the fossil fuel industry “greenwashed” its public image with promises and actions that oil and gas executives knew would not meaningfully reduce emissions, even as the industry moved aggressively to lock in continued fossil fuel production for decades to come—actions that could doom global efforts to prevent catastrophic climate change. The fossil fuel industry’s failure to make meaningful investments in a long-term transition to cleaner energy is particularly outrageous in light of the enormous profits these companies are raking in at the expense of consumers—including nearly $100 billion in combined profits for Exxon, Chevron, Shell, and BP in just the last two quarters. The authors also address how the fossil fuel industry has tried to obstruct the Committee’s investigation and withhold key documents to prevent Congress and the American people from learning the truth about Big Oil’s greenwashing campaign and its refusal to meaningfully reduce greenhouse gas emissions that are the primary driver of the climate crisis.

US Heavy-Duty Transport & Climate Change, Influence Map

U.S. truck manufacturers are actively lobbying to weaken and delay key U.S. climate policies promoting zero-emission trucks, while simultaneously running PR campaigns that appear to promote the decarbonization of the sector. The analysis draws on thousands of pages of previously unseen lobbying documents found from 33 FOIA requests across 11 states. The Truck and Engine Manufacturers Association (EMA) has spearheaded a lobbying campaign in eight states to oppose the adoption of the state-based Advanced Clean Truck (ACT) rule, which accelerates the transition towards zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs). New documents show the EMA has directly lobbied policymakers against ACT adoption in California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, and Washington. Notably, Maine and Colorado have yet to finalize the rulemaking process.

Farmers on the Front Lines How U.S. Investments in Climate Adaptation for Smallholders Can Support Global Food Security, Thomas Jayne, Farm Journal Foundation

Climate change is already tangibly affecting smallholder farmers in developing countries, and increased U.S. investments in agricultural development and innovation are needed to make global food systems more resilient and to alleviate hunger worldwide. While climate change is impacting agriculture all around the world, its effects are substantially more severe in warm regions including Africa, Latin America, and the Caribbean. As much as 80% of the world’s poor people, who predominantly work in agriculture, live in areas increasingly affected by climate change.

Arctic Report Card 2022, Drunkenmiller et al., National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

The warming Arctic reveals shifting seasons, widespread disturbances, and the value of diverse observations. Shifting seasons and climate-driven disturbances, such as wildfires, extreme weather, and unusual wildlife mortality events are becoming increasingly difficult to assess within the context of what has been previously considered normal. For example, the average surface air temperature over the Arctic for this past year (October 2021-September 2022) was the 6th warmest since 1900. The last seven years are collectively the warmest seven years on record. Low pressure across the Alaska Arctic and northern Canada sustained warm summer temperatures over the Beaufort Sea and Canadian Archipelago. The Arctic continues to warm more than twice as fast as the rest of the globe, with even greater warming in some locations and times of the year.

A Clean Energy Pathway for Southwestern Pennsylvania, Goodenbery et al, Strategen

The authors describe the development and analysis of a clean energy pathway for a 10-county region in southwestern Pennsylvania. Due to its abundance of fossil fuel resources, the region has a long history of substantial energy production, often at the expense of local environmental quality and economic diversity. A transition to clean energy provides a compelling opportunity to transform the local energy profile while ending the region’s overreliance on fossil fuels, reducing emissions, and pursuing a path of sustainable growth. To date, the prevailing narrative for decarbonizing this region has centered around the perpetuation of the natural gas industry and costly investments in carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies and infrastructure. The authors’ analysis provides an alternative focused primarily on zero emissions resources, energy efficiency, increased electrification, and leveraging clean energy imports from outside the region while minimizing the local need for fossil fuels.

The 2022 EPA Automotive Trends Report, Environmental Protection Agency

The annual report is part of the Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) commitment to provide the public with information about new light-duty vehicle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, fuel economy, technology data, and auto manufacturers’ performance in meeting the agency’s GHG emissions standards. In model year 2021, the average estimated real-world CO2 emission rate for all new vehicles fell by 2 g/mi to 347 g/mi, the lowest ever measured. Real-world fuel economy remained at a record high 25.4 mpg. Since model year 2004, CO2 emissions have decreased 25% or 114 g/mi, and fuel economy has increased 32%, or 6.1 mpg. Over that time, CO2 emissions have improved in 14 of 17 years. Preliminary data suggest that CO2 emissions and fuel economy in model year 2022 will improve from the levels achieved in 2021.


Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it’s frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light”  but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article’s relevance and importance. 

  • Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate

  • The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you’re interested in an article title and it is not listed here as “open access,” be sure to check the link anyway. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn’t to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers’ impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

  • Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a “yes” to this automatically. 
  • Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week’s 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

The section “Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives” includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of “perspectives,” observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

Suggestions

Please let us know if you’re aware of an article you think may be of interest for Skeptical Science research news, or if we’ve missed something that may be important. Send your input to Skeptical Science via our contact form.

Journals covered

A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.

Previous edition

The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.



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