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Skeptical Science New Research for Week #51 2022


Skeptical Science New Research for Week #51 2022

Posted on 22 December 2022 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack

Open accesss notables:

Rabiya Ansari & Jennifer Landin survey climate pedagogy in 57 text books from a 49 year span and find a continuous if unsteady increase in coverage but with no sign of a systematic approach commensurate with the increasingly looming threat, in Coverage of climate change in introductory biology textbooks, 1970–2019.

King Canute’s apocryphal object lesson on humility delivered to his subjects is being superseded by events.  Imminent reversal of the residual flow through the Marsdiep tidal inlet into the Dutch Wadden Sea based on multiyear ferry-borne acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) observations by van der Molen, Groeskamp & Maas and employing some slick methods reveals that by making a big enough mistakes we can reverse tides. General lack of humility remains a constant— where’s King Canute, now

Global warming limited to 1.5 degrees centigrade? Some have accepted that the 1.5° train has left the station with no passengers. Given that, where does the next train out take us? Park et al. offer some prognostications with What does global land climate look like at 2 degrees warming?: “During the 2040s, we find that global mean temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, downwelling shortwave and longwave radiation, and wind speed over land under the high emission scenario are projected to change by +2.8 °C, +22.4 mm/year, -0.73 %, -2.23 W/m2, +15.9 W/m2, and -0.04 m/s, respectively. Many of the future changes are expected to exacerbate climate impacts including heat stress and fire danger. Our analysis shows geographic patterns of policy-relevant climatic changes, as parts of the globe will experience significant climate impacts even if the goal to keep warming below 2 °C goal is achieved.”

Cornish et al. work to resolve and explain a seeming paradox in Rise and fall of sea ice production in the Arctic Ocean’s ice factories. Annual sea ice production has been increasing even as the overall inventory drops year-on-year, in the face of waming being most intense during winter when production happens. How? The authors’ simple model may explain that, and further hints that this production bulge is an unique effect of changing conditions and is now nearing a temporary peak. 

We read and hear lots of news and details about threats to low-lying assets and populations by rising sea-leve in countries that have substantially contributed to creating this slow-motion disaster. How about nations that didn’t fully enjoy the gravy train portion of the journey?  Land loss implications of sea level rise along the coastline of Colombia under different climate change scenarios by Nevermann & crew and just published in Climate Risk Management goes into details in what could serve as an archetype approach to comprehensive, methodical analysis producing useful insight for policy and planning. 

Our weekly section on decarbonization is a potpourri assembled from various specialist journals. It’s offered in the spirit of a ray of hope shining on the weekly litany of high-grade “uh-oh” in a typical edition of New Research. Necessarily we’re only scraping the surface of all the interesting things we’re learning about modernizing our energy systems now that we’re abandoning our caveman fixation on burning things. Wind farm energy surplus storage solution with second-life vehicle batteries in isolated grids and Cooling potential for hot climates by utilizing thermal management of compressed air energy storage systems are two great examples of what’s happening as we discover that our fossil fuel anachronism’s “cheapness” was both ephemeral and illusory. 

If somebody extremely incompetent attempted to invent machinery to do solar geoengineering, the result might look quite a bit like our aviation habit. Satellite observations of seasonality and long-term trends in cirrus cloud properties over Europe: investigation of possible aviation impacts by Qiang Li and Silke Groß takes a close look at the unintended outcomes of our inadvertent accidental engineering, a bunch of machines doing more than was contemplated or wanted. 

In our government/NGO section this week is Carbon Dioxide Utilization Markets and Infrastructure: Status and Opportunities: A First Report squired by the US National Academies and describing how we might stuff carbon into various useful compounds as part of a “circular-carbon economy” (note sponsorship of that “about”).  

156 articles in 68 journals by 1,156 contributing authors

Physical science of climate change, effects

Ocean variability beneath Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf driven by the Pine Island Bay Gyre strength
Dotto et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-35499-5

Observations of climate change, effects

A Multidataset Assessment of Climatic Drivers and Uncertainties of Recent Trends in Evaporative Demand across the Continental United States
Albano et al., Journal of Hydrometeorology, Open Access pdf 10.1175/jhm-d-21-0163.1

Assessing the changes of precipitation extremes in Peninsular Malaysia
Ng et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7684

Assessment of trends, variability and impacts of droughts across Brazil over the period 1980–2019
Tomasella et al., Natural Hazards, 10.1007/s11069-022-05759-0

Decrease of winter cyclone passage over northern Japan due to the reduction in the regional cyclogenesis associated with cold air outbreak
Tamura & Sato, International Journal of Climatology, Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.7667

Detection and attribution of urbanization impact on summer extreme heat based on nonstationary models in the Yangtze River Delta, China
Xu et al., Urban Climate, 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101376

Global ocean wave fields show consistent regional trends between 1980 and 2014 in a multi-product ensemble
Erikson et al., Communications Earth & Environment, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-022-00654-9

Imminent reversal of the residual flow through the Marsdiep tidal inlet into the Dutch Wadden Sea based on multiyear ferry-borne acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) observations
van der Molen et al., Ocean Science, Open Access pdf 10.5194/os-18-1805-2022

Increasing aridity causes larger and more severe forest fires across Europe
Grünig et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16547

Increasing urban and rural population exposures to warm-season concurrent hot days and nights on the North China Plain
Wang et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7685

Multiscale interactions driving the devastating floods in Henan Province, China during July 2021
Hsu et al., Weather and Climate Extremes, Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100541

Quantifying Flash Droughts over China from 1980 to 2017
Fu & Wang, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2022jd037152

Revisiting the Variations of Precipitation and Water Vapor Budget from Current Reanalysis over the Tibetan Plateau
Ping et al., Advances in Climate Change Research, Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2022.12.002

Spatiotemporal variations of extreme events in surface mass balance over Greenland during 1958–2019
Wei et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7689

The interannual variation of the first regional extreme hot events in southeastern China and the possible mechanism
Zang et al., Atmospheric Research, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2022.106569

Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects

A global climatology of ice-nucleating particles under cirrus conditions derived from model simulations with MADE3 in EMAC
Beer et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-22-15887-2022

A large-scale view of marine heatwaves revealed by archetype analysis
Chapman et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-35493-x

Biases in the thermodynamic structure over the Southern Ocean in ERA5 and their radiative implications
Truong et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7672

Data rescue process in the context of sea level reconstructions: An overview of the methodology, lessons learned, up-to-date best practices and recommendations
Latapy et al., Geoscience Data Journal, 10.1002/gdj3.179

Evaluation of statistical climate reconstruction methods based on pseudoproxy experiments using linear and machine-learning methods
Zhang et al., Climate of the Past, Open Access pdf 10.5194/cp-18-2643-2022

Towards a whole-system framework for wildfire monitoring using Earth observations
Crowley et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16567

Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects

Drivers and reversibility of abrupt ocean state transitions in the Amundsen Sea, Antarctica
Caillet et al., [journal not provided], 10.1002/essoar.10511518.1

Evaluation of the Urban Heat Island of 12 cities of France in a high-resolution regional climate model simulation
Michau et al., Urban Climate, Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2022.101386

Future evolution of global land surface air temperature trend based on Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 models
Wu et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7668

More frequent central Pacific El Niño and stronger eastern pacific El Niño in a warmer climate
Shin et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41612-022-00324-9

Quantifying the contributions of regional human activities and global climate change to the regional climate in a typical mountain-oasis-desert system of arid Central Asia from 1979∼2018
Zhang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2022jd037110

Spatiotemporal variation in precipitation concentration and its potential relationship with drought under different scenarios in Inner Mongolia, China
Du et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7670

Trends, intensification, attribution and uncertainty of projected heatwaves in India
Chowdhury, International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7665

What does global land climate look like at 2 degrees warming?
Park et al., Earth’s Future, Open Access 10.1029/2022ef003330

Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection

Cloud Climatologies from Global Climate Models—A Comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models with Satellite Data
Lauer et al., Journal of Climate, 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0181.1

Model errors of an intermediate model and their effects on realistic predictions of El Niño diversity
Tao et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7656

Sensitivity of the Indian Summer monsoon rainfall to land surface schemes and model domain in a regional climate model ‘RegCM’
Mishra et al., Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-022-06636-z

Spatiotemporal variation in precipitation concentration and its potential relationship with drought under different scenarios in Inner Mongolia, China
Du et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7670

Understanding model-observation discrepancies in satellite retrievals of atmospheric temperature using GISS ModelE
Casas et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Open Access 10.1029/2022jd037523

Understanding summer wind systems over the eastern Mediterranean in a high-resolution climate simulation
Latt et al., International Journal of Climatology, Open Access pdf 10.1002/joc.7695

Cryosphere & climate change

Effect of spring Bering Sea ice on the Indian summer monsoon onset process
Tian et al., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 10.1007/s00704-022-04329-5

Impact of seasonal fluctuations of ice velocity on decadal trends observed in Southwest Greenland
Halas et al., Remote Sensing of Environment, Open Access 10.1016/j.rse.2022.113419

Long-term firn and mass balance modelling for Abramov Glacier in the data-scarce Pamir Alay
Kronenberg et al., The Cryosphere, Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-16-5001-2022

Recent Intensification (2004–2020) of Permafrost Mass-Wasting in the Central Mackenzie Valley Foothills Is a Legacy of Past Forest Fire Disturbances
Young et al., Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2022gl100559

Rise and fall of sea ice production in the Arctic Ocean’s ice factories
Cornish et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-34785-6

Sea level & climate change

Land loss implications of sea level rise along the coastline of Colombia under different climate change scenarios
Nevermann et al., Climate Risk Management, Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100470

Paleoclimate

An integrated view of organic biomarker-based sea surface temperature changes in the subarctic Pacific since the last ice age
Li et al., Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 10.1029/2022pa004480

Long-term firn and mass balance modelling for Abramov Glacier in the data-scarce Pamir Alay
Kronenberg et al., The Cryosphere, Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-16-5001-2022

Low atmospheric CO2 levels before the rise of forested ecosystems
Dahl et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-35085-9

Multiproxy Reconstruction of Pliocene North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures and Implications for Rainfall in North Africa
Wycech et al., Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 10.1029/2022pa004424

Precessional pacing of tropical ocean carbon export during the Late Cretaceous
Kim et al., Climate of the Past, Open Access pdf 10.5194/cp-18-2631-2022

Reconstructing Holocene temperatures in time and space using paleoclimate data assimilation
Erb et al., Climate of the Past, Open Access pdf 10.5194/cp-18-2599-2022

Reconstruction of tropical cyclone and depression proxies for the South Pacific since the 1850s
Yeasmin et al., Weather and Climate Extremes, Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100543

Shallow marine carbonates as recorders of orbitally induced past climate changes – example from the Oxfordian of the Swiss Jura Mountains
Strasser, Climate of the Past, Open Access pdf 10.5194/cp-18-2117-2022

Tracking westerly wind directions over Europe since the middle Holocene
Hu et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-34952-9

Variability in the minimum temperature over two centuries in the overlap region between the fringe of the Asian westerly region and the temperate continental-monsoon climate transition zone
Sun et al., International Journal of Biometeorology, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s00484-022-02397-w

Biology & climate change, related geochemistry

Abrupt loss and uncertain recovery from fires of Amazon forests under low climate mitigation scenarios
Cano et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2203200119

Alpine shrubs have benefited more than trees from 20th century warming at a treeline ecotone site in the French Pyrenees
Francon et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109284

Coextinctions dominate future vertebrate losses from climate and land use change
Strona & Bradshaw, Science Advances, 10.1126/sciadv.abn4345

Contrasting drought legacy effects on gross primary productivity in a mixed versus pure beech forest
Yu et al., Biogeosciences, Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-19-4315-2022

Do predator (Mystus gulio) and prey (Penaeus monodon) have differential response against heatwaves? Unveiling through oxidative stress biomarkers and thermal tolerance estimation
Baag & Mandal, Marine Environmental Research, 10.1016/j.marenvres.2022.105850

Ecosystem impacts of marine heat waves in the northeast Pacific
Wyatt et al., Biogeosciences, Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-19-5689-2022

Functional Roles of Parasitic Plants in a Warming World
Watson et al., Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, 10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-102320-115331

Himalayan alpine ecohydrology: An urgent scientific concern in a changing climate
Leng et al., Ambio, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13280-022-01792-2

Hotspots and drivers of compound marine heatwaves and low net primary production extremes
Le Grix et al., Biogeosciences, Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-19-5807-2022

Identifying an Evaporative Thermal Refugium for the Preservation of Coral Reefs in a Warming World – The Gulf of Eilat (Aqaba)
Abir et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2022jd036845

Legacy of past exposure to hypoxia and warming regulates an ecosystem service provided by oysters
Donelan et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.1101/2022.04.25.488919

Microeconomic adaptation to severe climate disturbances on Australian coral reefs
Bartelet et al., Ambio, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13280-022-01798-w

Number of simultaneously acting global change factors affects composition, diversity and productivity of grassland plant communities
Speißer et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-35473-1

Predicting habitat suitability for Townsend’s big-eared bats across California in relation to climate change
Hamilton et al., Ecology and Evolution, 10.1002/ece3.9641

Predicting the changes in suitable habitats for six common woody species in Central Asia
Tao, International Journal of Biometeorology, 10.1007/s00484-022-02389-w

The effect of warming on seagrass wasting disease depends on host genotypic identity and diversity
Schenck et al., Ecology, 10.1002/ecy.3959

Thermal physiology integrated species distribution model predicts profound habitat fragmentation for estuarine fish with ocean warming
Harishchandra et al., Scientific Reports, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-022-25419-4

Tradeoffs in forest resilience to satellite-based estimates of water and productivity losses
Requena-Mullor et al., Remote Sensing of Environment, 10.1016/j.rse.2022.113414

When population-advantageous primary sex ratios are female-biased: changing concepts to facilitate climate change management in sea turtles
Santidrián Tomillo, Climatic Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-022-03470-4

GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry

A multi-approach inventory of the blue carbon stocks of Posidonia oceanica seagrass meadows: Large scale application in Calvi Bay (Corsica, NW Mediterranean)
Leduc et al., Marine Environmental Research, 10.1016/j.marenvres.2022.105847

Derivation and assessment of regional electricity generation emission factors in the USA
Ghosh et al., The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, 10.1007/s11367-022-02113-1

Drivers of intermodel uncertainty in land carbon sink projections
Padrón et al., Biogeosciences, Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-19-5435-2022

Early spring onset increases carbon uptake more than late fall senescence: modeling future phenological change in a US northern deciduous forest
Teets et al., Oecologia, Open Access 10.1007/s00442-022-05296-4

Effects of experimental nitrogen deposition on soil organic carbon storage in Southern California drylands
Püspök et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16563

Epipelagic nitrous oxide production offsets carbon sequestration by the biological pump
Wan et al., Nature Geoscience, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41561-022-01090-2

Historical trend and drivers of China’s CO2 emissions from 2000 to 2020
Wei, Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-022-02811-8

Inferring and evaluating satellite-based constraints on NOx emissions estimates in air quality simulations
East et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-2022-435

Quantification of blue carbon in salt marshes of the Pacific coast of Canada
Chastain et al., Biogeosciences, Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-19-5751-2022

Quantifying contributions of ozone changes to global and arctic warming during the second half of the twentieth century
Hu et al., Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-022-06621-6

The outsized role of salps in carbon export in the subarctic Northeast Pacific Ocean
Steinberg et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 10.1029/2022gb007523

Zooplankton Fecal Pellet Characteristics and Contribution to the Deep-sea Carbon Export in the Southern South China Sea
Li et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 10.1029/2022jc019412

CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering

A CFD-based analysis of dynamic induction techniques for wind farm control applications
Croce et al., Wind Energy, 10.1002/we.2801

Biomass energy for sustainable development: evidence from Asian countries
Hosen et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-022-02850-1

Climate change impacts on wind power generation for the Italian peninsula
Bonanno et al., Regional Environmental Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10113-022-02007-w

Combined third-party ownership and aggregation business model for the adoption of rooftop solar PV–battery systems: Implications from the case of Miyakojima Island, Japan
Yamashiro & Mori, Energy Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113392

Cooling potential for hot climates by utilizing thermal management of compressed air energy storage systems
Alami et al., Scientific Reports, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-022-26666-1

Decarbonization, population disruption and resource inventories in the global energy transition
Svobodova et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-35391-2

Dual-band electrochromic materials for energy-saving smart windows
Zhao et al., Carbon Neutralization, 10.1002/cnl2.38

Environmental profile of sweet sorghum bioethanol in the province of Tucumán (Argentina)
Garolera De Nucci et al., The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, 10.1007/s11367-022-02120-2

Experimental assessment of a blended fatigue-extreme controller employing trailing edge flaps
Bartholomay et al., Wind Energy, 10.1002/we.2795

Feasibility study for estimating optimal substrate parameters for sustainable green roof in Sri Lanka
Kader et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10668-022-02837-y

How CO2 prices accelerate decarbonisation – The case of coal-fired generation in Germany
Sgarciu et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113375

Institutional acceptance of wildlife mitigation technologies for wind energy: The case of Israel
Cohen et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113359

Molybdenum-Based Catalytic Materials for Li–S Batteries: Strategies, Mechanisms, and Prospects
Liu et al., Advanced Energy and Sustainability Research, 10.1002/aesr.202200145

One-hour-ahead solar radiation forecasting by MLP, LSTM, and ANFIS approaches
Yildirim et al., Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 10.1007/s00703-022-00946-x

Planning for winter peaking power systems in the United States
Keskar et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113376

Understanding India’s low-carbon energy technology startup landscape
Krishna et al., Nature Energy, 10.1038/s41560-022-01170-y

Understanding variability in petroleum jet fuel life cycle greenhouse gas emissions to inform aviation decarbonization
Jing et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-35392-1

Wind farm energy surplus storage solution with second-life vehicle batteries in isolated grids
López et al., Energy Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113373

Geoengineering climate

Toward Dangerous US Unilateralism on Solar Geoengineering
Stephens et al., Environmental Politics, 10.1080/09644016.2022.2156182

Aerosols

Satellite observations of seasonality and long-term trends in cirrus cloud properties over Europe: investigation of possible aviation impacts
Li & Groß Groß, Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-22-15963-2022

Climate change communications & cognition

Coverage of climate change in introductory biology textbooks, 1970–2019
Ansari & Landin, PLOS ONE, Open Access pdf 10.1371/journal.pone.0278532

Think green: Investing cognitive effort for a pro-environmental cause
Krebs et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology, 10.1016/j.jenvp.2022.101946

Whose system, what change? A critical political economy approach to the UK climate movement
Berglund & Bailey, Environmental Politics, 10.1080/09644016.2022.2156179

Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change

Adapting to a changing climate: indigenous biotic rainfall forecasting in Western Zambia
Mushimbei & Libanda, International Journal of Biometeorology, 10.1007/s00484-022-02402-2

Analyzing the impact of extreme heat events and drought on wheat yield and protein concentration, and adaptation strategies using long-term cultivar trials under semi-arid conditions
Lorite et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.109279

Attitudes and opportunities: comparing climate change adaptation intentions and decisions of agricultural producers in Shaanxi, China, and British Columbia, Canada
Mu et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 10.1007/s11027-022-10040-7

Climate-driven vegetation greening further reduces water availability in drylands
Chen et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16561

Future area expansion outweighs increasing drought risk for soybean in Europe
Nendel et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16562

Site suitability of emerging maize cultivation in a changing agroclimatic setting of eastern India: a fuzzy-MCE integrated analysis
Goswami et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-022-02756-y

The effect of conventional and sustainable agricultural management practices on carbon and water fluxes in a Mexican semi-arid region
Guillen-Cruz et al., PeerJ, Open Access 10.7717/peerj.14542

Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change

A Multidataset Assessment of Climatic Drivers and Uncertainties of Recent Trends in Evaporative Demand across the Continental United States
Albano et al., Journal of Hydrometeorology, Open Access pdf 10.1175/jhm-d-21-0163.1

Assessing the changes of precipitation extremes in Peninsular Malaysia
Ng et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7684

Assessment of trends, variability and impacts of droughts across Brazil over the period 1980–2019
Tomasella et al., Natural Hazards, 10.1007/s11069-022-05759-0

Changes in Sahel summer rainfall in a global warming climate: contrasting the mid-Pliocene and future regional hydrological cycles
Han et al., Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-022-06630-5

Climate-driven vegetation greening further reduces water availability in drylands
Chen et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16561

Evaluating observed and future spatiotemporal changes in precipitation and temperature across China based on CMIP6-GCMs
Lu et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7673

Himalayan alpine ecohydrology: An urgent scientific concern in a changing climate
Leng et al., Ambio, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13280-022-01792-2

Number of simultaneously acting global change factors affects composition, diversity and productivity of grassland plant communities
Speißer et al., Nature Communications, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-022-35473-1

Quantifying Flash Droughts over China from 1980 to 2017
Fu & Wang, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 10.1029/2022jd037152

Climate change mitigation public policy research

Achieving the objectives of renewable energy policy – Insights from renewable energy auction design in Europe
Fleck & Anatolitis, Energy Policy, Open Access 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113357

Assessing decarbonization pathways of China’s heavy-duty trucks in a well-to-wheels perspective
Xue et al., The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment, 10.1007/s11367-022-02124-y

Assessing synergies and trade-offs of diverging Paris-compliant mitigation strategies with long-term SDG objectives
Moreno et al., Global Environmental Change, Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102624

Developing regional voluntary carbon markets for peatlands: innovation processes and influencing factors
Chen et al., Climate Policy, 10.1080/14693062.2022.2160300

Driving factors of CO2 emission reduction in the logistics industry: an assessment of the RCEP and SAARC economies
Sikder et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-022-02840-3

Electricity generation portfolio planning and policy implications of Turkish power system considering cost, emission, and uncertainty
Selçuklu et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113393

Energy–poverty–climate vulnerability nexus: an approach to sustainable development for the poorest of poor
Yadava & Sinha, Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-022-02812-7

Future supply of boreal forest ecosystem services is driven by management rather than by climate change
Triviño et al., Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.16566

How CO2 prices accelerate decarbonisation – The case of coal-fired generation in Germany
Sgarciu et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113375

Local officials’ tenure and CO2 emissions in China
Tian et al., Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2022.113394

The paradox of overcapacity in African energy sectors
Andersen & Pedersen, Energy for Sustainable Development, Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2022.11.011

Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research

Climate change and migration from atolls? No evidence yet
Mortreux et al., Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, Open Access 10.1016/j.cosust.2022.101234

Has the IPCC’s revised vulnerability concept been well adopted?
Estoque et al., Ambio, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s13280-022-01806-z

Identifying leverage points in climate change migration systems through expert mental models
Nabong et al., Climatic Change, Open Access pdf 10.1007/s10584-022-03468-y

Land loss implications of sea level rise along the coastline of Colombia under different climate change scenarios
Nevermann et al., Climate Risk Management, Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2022.100470

Mitigation and adaptation to climate change in San Diego County, California
Quandt et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 10.1007/s11027-022-10041-6

Mitigation and adaptation to climate change in San Diego County, California
Quandt et al., Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 10.1007/s11027-022-10041-6

National Climate Change Risk Assessments to inform adaptation policy priorities and environmental sustainability outcomes: a knowledge systems perspective
, Journal of Development and Social Sciences, Open Access pdf 10.47205/jdss.2021(2-iv)74

Thermal performance of historic buildings in Mexico: An analysis of passive systems under the influence of climate change
Vázquez-Torres et al., Energy for Sustainable Development, Open Access 10.1016/j.esd.2022.12.002

Climate change impacts on human health

Analysis of Daily Ambient Temperature and Firearm Violence in 100 US Cities
Lyons et al., JAMA Network Open, Open Access pdf 10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2022.47207

Assessment of summer regional outdoor heat stress and regional comfort in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei agglomeration over the last 40 years
Huang et al., GeoHealth, 10.1029/2022gh000725

Association between daily temperature and hospital admissions for urolithiasis in Ganzhou, China: a time-series analysis
Li et al., International Journal of Biometeorology, 10.1007/s00484-022-02383-2

Beyond heat exposure — new methods to quantify and link personal heat exposure, stress, and strain in diverse populations and climates: The journal temperature toolbox
Guzman-Echavarria et al., Temperature, 10.1080/23328940.2022.2149024

Increasing urban and rural population exposures to warm-season concurrent hot days and nights on the North China Plain
Wang et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7685

Other

Assessing the maximum potential cooling benefits of irrigation in Australia during the “Angry Summer” of 2012/2013
Kala et al., Weather and Climate Extremes, Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2022.100538

Challenging the values of the polluter elite: A global consequentialist response to Evensen and Graham’s (2022) ‘The irreplaceable virtues of in-person conferences’
Whitmarsh & Kreil, Journal of Environmental Psychology, 10.1016/j.jenvp.2022.101881

Unveiling evolution characteristics of inventive activity on climate change mitigation technologies in China
Liu et al., Environment, Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-022-02839-w

Weakened influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on the zonal shift of the South Asian High after the early 1980s
Cen et al., International Journal of Climatology, 10.1002/joc.7666

Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives

An evolution towards scientific consensus for a sustainable ocean future
Gaill et al., npj Ocean Sustainability, Open Access pdf 10.1038/s44183-022-00007-1

GC Insights: Diversifying the geosciences in higher education: a manifesto for change
Hall et al., [journal not provided], Open Access pdf 10.5194/egusphere-2022-116

Limits to adaptation: Building an integrated research agenda
Berkhout & Dow, WIREs Climate Change, 10.1002/wcc.817

What’s New at JGR-Oceans? Confronting Bias, Burn Out, and Big Data
Beal et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 10.1029/2022jc019539

When is green nudging ethically permissible?
Tyler DesRoches et al., Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, Open Access 10.1016/j.cosust.2022.101236

Book reviews

Holocene book review: Meltdown: The Earth Without Glaciers
, The Holocene, 10.1177/09596836221110312


Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change

Solving the Climate Crisis 2022, Cohen et al., Select Committee on the Climate Crisis Majority Staff

The majority staff report highlights the historic progress made by House Democrats to reduce heat-trapping pollution, lower energy costs, and create good-paying jobs across America by addressing the climate crisis and deploying cleaner, cheaper energy. It also outlines progress made to help communities adapt to climate impacts and become more resilient in the face of worsening extreme weather events. Those accomplishments include investments in bills like the Inflation Reduction Act, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law, the CHIPS & Science Act, the Energy Act of 2020, the yearly appropriations bills, the National Defense Authorization Act, and more. Some of the key accomplishments highlighted in the report include the following; laying the foundation to slash pollution across the board with tax credits that will drive investment in affordable clean energy, electric vehicles made in America, and cost-saving energy efficiency technologies; a down payment on the electrification of the entire economy, with substantial investments and policy changes in electric transmission and a historic deployment of electric vehicle charging infrastructure; making environmental justice a cornerstone of climate action, with a focus on stronger enforcement of environmental laws and increasing investments in EJ communities, including rural and tribal communities.

Carbon Dioxide Utilization Markets and Infrastructure: Status and Opportunities: A First Report, Carter et al., National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine

Carbon materials pervade many aspects of modern life, from fuels and building materials to consumer goods and commodity chemicals. Reaching net-zero emissions will require replacing existing fossil-carbon-based systems with circular-carbon economies that transform wastes like CO2 into useful materials. This report evaluates market opportunities and infrastructure needs to help decision-makers better understand how carbon dioxide use can contribute to a net-zero emissions future.

The True Cost of Wildfire in the Western U.S, Troy et al., Western Forestry Leadership Coalition

The authors provide information on the full range of costs associated with wildland fire in the western UU.S. in order to inform leaders and policymakers as they work to improve wildfire response and mitigation. Information on the costs of wildfires is commonly reduced to the sum of suppression costs and structure losses; however, many other costs are commonly incurred, including compromised water supply, flood damage, lost economic opportunity, and declines in public health, among others. These costs are often overlooked because they are more difficult to quantify and their linkage to a wildfire event may be indirect. The authors highlight and categorize these often overlooked costs in a systematic way so as to facilitate improved decision making and resource allocation. The authors also show how targeted investments in mitigation produce ancillary benefits, such as healthier and more resilient forests and rangelands, which can potentially lead to a reduction in catastrophic wildfire event costs later. They conclude by presenting a roadmap of subsequent steps that would be needed in order to advance a consistent and comprehensive system of wildfire cost accounting, including research, data collection, and information management.


Obtaining articles without journal subscriptions

We know it’s frustrating that many articles we cite here are not free to read. One-off paid access fees are generally astronomically priced, suitable for such as On a Heuristic Point of View Concerning the Production and Transformation of Light”  but not as a gamble on unknowns. With a median world income of US$ 9,373, for most of us US$ 42 is significant money to wager on an article’s relevance and importance. 

  • Unpaywall offers a browser extension for Chrome and Firefox that automatically indicates when an article is freely accessible and provides immediate access without further trouble. Unpaywall is also unscammy, works well, is itself offered free to use. The organizers (a legitimate nonprofit) report about a 50% success rate

  • The weekly New Research catch is checked against the Unpaywall database with accessible items being flagged. Especially for just-published articles this mechansim may fail. If you’re interested in an article title and it is not listed here as “open access,” be sure to check the link anyway. 

How is New Research assembled?

Most articles appearing here are found via  RSS feeds from journal publishers, filtered by search terms to produce raw output for assessment of relevance. 

Relevant articles are then queried against the Unpaywall database, to identify open access articles and expose useful metadata for articles appearing in the database. 

The objective of New Research isn’t to cast a tinge on scientific results, to color readers’ impressions. Hence candidate articles are assessed via two metrics only:

  • Was an article deemed of sufficient merit by a team of journal editors and peer reviewers? The fact of journal RSS output assigns a “yes” to this automatically. 
  • Is an article relevant to the topic of anthropogenic climate change? Due to filter overlap with other publication topics of inquiry, of a typical week’s 550 or so input articles about 1/4 of RSS output makes the cut.

The section “Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives” includes some items that are not scientific research per se but fall instead into the category of “perspectives,” observations of implications of research findings, areas needing attention, etc.

Suggestions

Please let us know if you’re aware of an article you think may be of interest for Skeptical Science research news, or if we’ve missed something that may be important. Send your input to Skeptical Science via our contact form.

Journals covered

A list of journals we cover may be found here. We welcome pointers to omissions, new journals etc.

Previous edition

The previous edition of Skeptical Science New Research may be found here.



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