Skeptical Science New Research for Week #51 2025
Posted on 18 December 2025 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Widespread Increase in Atmospheric River Frequency and Impacts Over the 20th Century, Scholz & Lora, AGU Advances
Atmospheric rivers (ARs) play a dominant role in water resource availability in many regions, and can cause substantial hazards, including extreme precipitation, flooding, and moist heatwaves. Despite this, there is substantial uncertainty about recent and ongoing changes in AR frequency and impacts. Here, we place recent observed trends in their longer-term context using AR records extending back to 1940. Our results show that AR frequency has increased broadly across the midlatitudes, bridging the apparent discrepancy between the observed satellite-era poleward shift and the general increase simulated in climate change projections. This increase in AR frequency enhances AR-associated precipitation and snowfall across their region of influence in the mid- and high-latitudes. We also find that, despite warmer surface temperatures associated with ARs, there is a decrease in the magnitude of AR-associated temperature anomalies in high-latitude regions due to Arctic amplification. An increase in AR-associated humid heatwaves underscores the societal importance of changing AR activity.
Reduction of Residence Time of Air in the Arctic Since the 1980s, Plach et al., Geophysical Research Letters
The Arctic has seen dramatic changes in recent decades. Here we use a simple metric, the Arctic residence time of air, that is, the time air spends uninterruptedly north of 70N, to evaluate how these changes have affected the high-latitude atmospheric circulation in the last 40 years. We find that, on average, near-surface air resides between 7 (winter) and 12 (summer) days in the Arctic. This residence time has decreased almost year-round since the 1980s, especially pronounced in the seasonal transition periods (fall: 0.9 days; spring: 1.4 days). The more pronounced reduction in spring also affects higher atmospheric layers. Our analysis indicates that this reduction is likely linked to the observed sea ice loss, decrease in snow cover, and increase in temperature. Furthermore, it indicates a speed-up of the circulation, effectively making the Arctic less isolated and more prone to influences from mid-latitudes.
Peak glacier extinction in the mid-twenty-first century, Van Tricht et al., Nature Climate Change
Projections of glacier change typically focus on mass and area loss, yet the disappearance of individual glaciers directly threatens culturally, spiritually and touristically significant landscapes. Here, using three global glacier models, we project a sharp rise in the number of glaciers disappearing worldwide, peaking between 2041 and 2055 with up to ~4,000 glaciers vanishing annually. Regional variability reflects differences in average glacier size, local climate, the magnitude of warming and inventory completeness.
Countering the Climate Change Counter Movement: Six lessons from Canada’s climate delays, Lloyd & Rhodes, Energy Research & Social Science
The global transition away from fossil fuels is dangerously delayed. While climate delays are a complex issue, the fossil-fuel funded Climate Change Counter Movement represents a key culprit that is worthy of greater attention than it receives. As such, this article uses Canada as a case study to highlight the Movement’s role in delaying climate action in the West, and to suggest six strategies to counteract their influence. We collate evidence demonstrating the Climate Change Counter Movement’s influence over the Canadian state, its economy and its people, and directly linking elite members of the Movement to post-truth narratives that deny the reality of climate change, and delay climate policy. Concerningly, we also find evidence that these “climate delay discourses” can rapidly evolve to exploit new contexts and cultures, and are already being repeated by unassociated members of the general public. In order to spur action against the Climate Change Counter Movement, we combine insights from our case study with a narrative review of international research to suggest six strategies to counteract their influence, alongside associated directions for future research. These strategies would see climate policy advocates: reflect upon their own position; develop knowledge of the Climate Change Counter Movement’s actions; use that knowledge to hold them legally accountable for those actions; reverse the effects they have already had on the general population; push “passively supported” policies to advance climate action even when public appetites are low; and challenge the economic and cultural roots of the Climate Change Counter Movement’s power.
From this week’s government/NGO section:
Arctic Report Card 2025, Druckenmiller et al., National Oceanic and Atmospheric Organization
Now in its 20th year, the Arctic Report Card (ARC) 2025 provides a clear view of a region warming far faster than the rest of the planet. Along with reports on the state of the Arctic’s atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere, and tundra, this year’s report highlights major transformations underway—atlantification bringing warmer, saltier waters northward, boreal species expanding northward into Arctic ecosystems, and “rivers rusting” as thawing permafrost mobilizes iron and other metals. Across these changing landscapes, sustained observations and strong research partnerships, including those led by communities and Indigenous organizations, remain essential for understanding and adaptation.
Big Oil’s Deceptive Climate Ads. How Four Oil Majors Sold False Promises from 2000-2025, Charlotte Marcil, Center for Climate Integrity
While knowingly fueling the climate crisis, four oil majors — BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Shell — spent 25 years running deceptive advertising campaigns to falsely reposition themselves as partners in the fight against climate change. The author examines more than 300 unique climate-related advertisements across seven categories of deception, highlighting Big Oil’s modern campaign of lies.
125 articles in 52 journals by 826 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Contributions of Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and global oceanic warming to the secular change in United States tornado occurrence, Zhao et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108689
Large Uncertainty in Arctic Warming Driven by the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, Hahn et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl119720
Noise-induced tipping of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under climate mitigation scenarios, Oh et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-66494-1
Projected Changes in the Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasian Pattern: Structural Shifts and Underlying Mechanisms, Yu et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0152.1
Revisiting the Role of Ocean Circulation Changes in Polar Ocean Heat Transport Anomalies under Global Warming, Li et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0135.1
Super El Niño events drive climate regime shifts with enhanced risks under global warming, Xue et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-66143-7
Synergistic reductions of CO2 and aerosols: Navigating mid-term warming risks for 2 °C climate futures, JIN et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2025.10.008
Observations of climate change, effects
Accelerated land surface greening caused by earlier permafrost thawing, Hua et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-67644-1
Attribution of the 2024 record-breaking precipitation event in Southern Denmark to human-induced climate change, Newell et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100848
High frequency of moraine-dammed lake outburst floods driven by global warming, Zhang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-67650-3
Intensified upwelling: normalized sea surface temperature trends expose climate change in coastal areas, Gutierrez-Guerra et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2024-389
Multiple modes of shoreline change along the Alaskan Beaufort Sea observed using ICESat-2 altimetry and satellite imagery, Bryant et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2024-1656
Observed and Modeled Amplification of the Frequency, Duration, and Extreme Heat Impacts of the Pacific Trough Regime, Pérez?Carrasquilla et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef007140
Observed Trends in Extreme Precipitation and Convective Intensity under Global Warming, Mischell & Soden, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0122.1
Reduction of Residence Time of Air in the Arctic Since the 1980s, Plach et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl118228
The influence of climate variability on transatlantic flight times, Wright et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access 10.5194/acp-25-18267-2025
Widespread Increase in Atmospheric River Frequency and Impacts Over the 20th Century, Scholz & Lora, AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2025av001888
Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
Correcting Breaks in Temperature and Humidity Observations: Implications for Climate Variability Analysis in Austria, Hiebl et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70214
Less Intense Daily Precipitation Maxima in Regional Compared to Global Gridded Products, Alexander et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0222.1
Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Evaluating Extreme Storm Events in an Ensemble of High-Resolution Projections, Rastogi et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006570
Human influence on the unprecedented 2022 extreme dragon boat water event in South China: Insights from historical and projected perspectives, Li et al., Weather and Climate Extremes 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100830
Impacts of Climate Change on Tropical Cyclones and associated Rainfall over South Korea: Storyline and Risk-based approaches, Hiraga et al., Atmospheric Research Open Access 10.1016/j.atmosres.2025.108685
Modeling Northern Hemisphere Heat Extremes in Current and Warmer Climates: Intensity, Duration, and Physical Drivers, Narinesingh et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0013.1
Severity of Compound Precipitation and Temperature Extreme Events Over Africa at 1.5°C and 2°C Global Warming Levels, Fotso?Nguemo et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70215
Warm, humid ‘atmospheric rivers’ threaten Antarctica, Vernimmen, Science 10.1126/science.aee6254
Wetter, Weaker, and More Frequent Monsoon Low Pressure Systems in CMIP6 Future Scenarios, Hunt & Turner, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0389.1
Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
A Nonstationary Probabilistic Approach for Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimation Based on Global Climate Model Large Ensembles, Liu et al., Journal of Hydrometeorology Open Access 10.1175/jhm-d-25-0098.1
A Review: Communicating Uncertainty within the Global Climate Projections, Thompson et al., Weather, Climate, and Society Open Access 10.1175/wcas-d-25-0039.1
An assessment of Antarctic sea-ice thickness in CMIP6 simulations with comparison to the satellite-based observations and reanalyses, Trivedi et al., Open Access pdf 10.22541/essoar.171042687.79004452/v2
An improved and extended parameterization of the CO2 15 µm cooling in the middle and upper atmosphere (CO2&cool&fort-1.0), López-Puertas et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4401-2024
Drivers of seasonal hydrography in Disko Bay, Greenland, Latuta et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2025-1492
Global models predict clouds at the wrong time of day: Does it matter for radiation and climate?, Aerenson et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.ady3236
Improving marine heatwave simulations through realistic Kuroshio representation in a high-resolution dynamical downscaling ensemble, Oh et al., Weather and Climate Extremes 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100823
Kilometre-scale Earth system models to support the renewable energy transition: a combination of storyline methodologies, Baulenas et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104513
The ACCESS-CM2 climate model with a higher resolution ocean-sea ice component (1/4°), Huneke et al., Open Access 10.5194/egusphere-2025-1006
Cryosphere & climate change
Peak glacier extinction in the mid-twenty-first century, Van Tricht et al., Nature Climate Change Open Access 10.1038/s41558-025-02513-9
Quantifying the interplay of sea ice meltwater and ice–albedo feedbacks in the Arctic ice-ocean system, Zhang et al., The Cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-19-6807-2025
Warming-Driven Abrupt Shifts in Alpine Permafrost Dynamics With Elevation, Gu et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70616
Sea level & climate change
Accelerating sea level rise in Africa and its large marine ecosystems since the 1990s, Ghomsi et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02965-z
Assessing climate change impact on storm surge and funding strategies in east peninsular Malaysia, Rosli et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1634062
Sea level reconstruction reveals improved separation of regional climate and trend patterns over the last seven decades, Wang et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-17-7055-2025
Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
Changing climate may drive large shifts in vegetation zones of Oregon, USA, Yegorova et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2025.1637821
Compounding Impacts of Extreme Climate Events on European Birds Under Climate Change, Häkkinen & Pettorelli, Conservation Letters Open Access 10.1111/con4.70010
Costs of thermal adaptation: warm-adapted copepods show increased energetic demands under cold exposure, Relva et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107791
Ecological Niche Modeling of Three Fangfeng Species Under Present and Future Climate Scenarios, Tian et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.72729
Historical and Projected Impact of Global Climate Change on the Extrinsic Incubation of Dirofilaria immitis, Atkinson et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.72525
Impact of acidification and ultraviolet radiation on the physiology of Ulva fasciata, Ozen & Yildiz, Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107776
Linking Climate and Demography to Predict Population Dynamics and Persistence Under Global Change, Williams et al., Ecology Letters Open Access 10.1111/ele.70283
Marine heatwaves disrupt germination and seedling physiology in Zostera marina, Pieraccini et al., Marine Environmental Research 10.1016/j.marenvres.2025.107789
Modeling Phenological and Physiological Responses to Climate Warming in a Hypothetical Migratory Songbird–Mosquito System, Ragonese et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.72648
No Refuge at the Edge for European Beech as Climate Warming Disproportionately Reduces Masting at Colder Margins, Foest et al., Ecology Letters 10.1111/ele.70284
Ocean acidification modulates material flux linked with coral calcification and photosynthesis, Armstrong et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-025-30818-4
Plant–Soil Relationships Diminish Under Major Versus Moderate Climate Change in Subalpine Grasslands, Terry et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.72578
Population Genomics and Climate Change Vulnerability in Two Sympatric Desert Rodents, Tian et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70647
Positive Drought Feedbacks Increase Tree Mortality Risk in Dry Woodlands of the US Southwest, Rodman et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.72667
GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
Carbon dioxide (CO2) variations across India: Synthesis of observations and model simulations, Kunchala et al., Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2025.121746
Decoding carbon allocation in boreal forests: Integrating multi-proxy observations and process-based modelling, Puchi et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110923
Deep Gulf of Mexico seeps are not a significant source of methane to the atmosphere, Joung et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-03027-0
FluxHourly: global long-term hourly 9 km terrestrial water-energy-carbon fluxes, Han et al., Earth System Science Data Open Access 10.5194/essd-17-7101-2025
Global energy sector methane emissions estimated by using facility-level satellite observations, Jervis et al., Science Open Access 10.1126/science.adv3183
Greenhouse gas fluxes in a managed floodplain forest in the Amazon estuary, Aroni et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110979
Integrating surface-based in-situ and satellite observations to characterize CO2 and CH4 emission hotspots in Houston, USA, Karim & Rappenglück, Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2025.121713
Organic Carbon Fluxes on Seasonal to Decennial Timescales in Patagonia’s Largest River-Fjord System, Hage et al., Global Biogeochemical Cycles Open Access 10.1029/2024gb008427
Population ecology and biogeochemical implications of ssDNA and dsDNA viruses along a permafrost thaw gradient, Trubl et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-67057-0
Rethinking High Carbon Emissions Associated With Thick Accumulated Sediments in Reservoirs, Xing et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 10.1029/2025jg008981
Revised estimates of CO2 sources and sinks improve global carbon accounting, McKinley, Nature 10.1038/d41586-025-03981-x
Spatial and temporal variations of gross primary production simulated by land surface model BCC&AVIM2.0, Li et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2023.02.001
Worldwide inference of national methane emissions by inversion of satellite observations with UNFCCC prior estimates, East et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-67122-8
CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
Blue carbon sequestration and storage potential has increased in seagrass sediments from Northern Morocco, Mejjad et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02966-y
Decarbonization
Vehicle-to-home charging can cut costs and greenhouse gas emissions across the USA, Chen et al., Nature Energy 10.1038/s41560-025-01894-7
Geoengineering climate
Alkalinity enhancement with sodium hydroxide in coastal ocean waters, Wynn-Edwards et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-025-31606-w
Marine Cloud Brightening to Cool the Arctic: An Earth System Model Comparison, Henry et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006508
Aerosols
Aviation soot interactions with natural cirrus clouds are unlikely to have a significant impact on global climate, Righi et al., Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Open Access pdf 10.5194/acp-25-18341-2025
Climate change communications & cognition
Assessing perceptions of various stakeholders on climate change mitigation and adaptation in rural areas in Cameroon: The use of ICTs, Fudjumdjum & Filho Filho, Climate Risk Management 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100780
Countering the Climate Change Counter Movement: Six lessons from Canada’s climate delays, Lloyd & Rhodes, Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104500
Europeans’ climate consciousness: increased yet more politicised, Kenny & Fisher Fisher, Environmental Politics Open Access 10.1080/09644016.2025.2597649
Mapping climate belief profiles in Brazil: A cluster analysis of polarization and mistrust, de Oliveira Cardoso et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102885
The political psychology of climate denial, Tal & Paz , Nature Climate Change Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41558-025-02523-7
Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
A novel approach to developing local flood vulnerability scenarios based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways framework: Sectoral risks and policy implications, Vu et al., Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2025.103079
Climate-crop models to support opportunity crop adaptation in Africa, Yang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-66180-2
Conservation agriculture raises crop nitrogen acquisition by amplifying plant-microbe synergy under climate warming, Hao et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-65999-z
Farmers’ willingness to pay for weather and climate information services in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review with meta-analysis, Gouroubera et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1692594
Fine-scale estimates of ammonia emissions from South Asian croplands under changing climate, Ismaeel et al., Atmospheric Environment 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2025.121705
Global Flux-Based Assessment Reveals Declining Ozone Risk for Wheat in Future Climate Change Scenarios, Guaita et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70643
Long-Term Exposure of Bivalves to Ocean Acidification and Warming Under Ecologically-Realistic Conditions Reveals Risks for Aquaculture by 2050 in the Mediterranean, Pernet et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef005992
Modeling biochar effects on soil organic carbon on croplands in a microbial decomposition model (MIMICS-BC&v1.0), Han et al., Geoscientific Model Development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-17-4871-2024
Nudging meat off the plate in foodservice? A systematic review and meta-analysis identifying moderators in field-based intervention studies, Schäufele-Elbers et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102830
Reciprocal dynamics of climate change risk perception and environmental attitude in early adolescence: Association with pro-environmental behavior, Liu et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology 10.1016/j.jenvp.2025.102868
Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
A Greening Future Elevates Flash Drought Risk in Northern Mid-to-High Latitudes, Xue et al., Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006883
A Rain-on-Snow Climatology of the Connecticut River Watershed (1981–2022), Davidson & Suriano, Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology 10.1175/jamc-d-25-0075.1
Climatic and Socioeconomic Drivers of Water Use and Their Spatio-Temporal Patterns for Small and Mid-Sized Cities in the Contiguous United States, Dave & Cai, Earth’s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006256
Attribution of the 2024 record-breaking precipitation event in Southern Denmark to human-induced climate change, Newell et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100848
High frequency of moraine-dammed lake outburst floods driven by global warming, Zhang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-67650-3
Observed Trends in Extreme Precipitation and Convective Intensity under Global Warming, Mischell & Soden, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0122.1
Widespread Increase in Atmospheric River Frequency and Impacts Over the 20th Century, Scholz & Lora, AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2025av001888
Emergent constraints reveal underprediction of future global water availability under anthropogenic forcing, Tang et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.105252
High frequency of moraine-dammed lake outburst floods driven by global warming, Zhang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-67650-3
Human influence on the unprecedented 2022 extreme dragon boat water event in South China: Insights from historical and projected perspectives, Li et al., Weather and Climate Extremes 10.1016/j.wace.2025.100830
Increased Thunderstorm Activities Caused by Warming and Wetting Over the Tibetan Plateau, Zhu et al., Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd044233
Rising atmospheric moisture escalates the future impact of atmospheric rivers in the Antarctic climate system, Maclennan et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02333-x
Temporally compounding droughts at the global scale: Distribution, propagation, and projection, Zhao et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2025.104905
Wetter, Weaker, and More Frequent Monsoon Low Pressure Systems in CMIP6 Future Scenarios, Hunt & Turner, Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0389.1
Widespread Increase in Atmospheric River Frequency and Impacts Over the 20th Century, Scholz & Lora, AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2025av001888
Climate change economics
Are public banks gaslighting on climate finance? Analysing policies governing gas infrastructure, Peterson & Downie, Climate Policy 10.1080/14693062.2025.2594592
Can we improve well-being while reducing carbon emissions? Household-level evidence from China, Yu et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology 10.1111/jiec.70097
Cross-border risks of industrial decarbonization: Carbon tariffs exacerbate carbon inequity in international trade, Ren et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology 10.1111/jiec.70094
Ownership of power plants stranded by climate mitigation, Fofrich Navarro et al., Nature Sustainability Open Access 10.1038/s41893-025-01707-5
Climate change mitigation public policy research
City low-carbon transitions: Varied pathways and drivers behind the adoption of increasingly ambitious climate policies, Armstrong, Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104483
Energy transition vs. ecotourism in the Colombian Amazon: Community perceptions and sustainability in the San Pedro River basin, Olaya-Marín et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2025.104499
Flexible robotic hand harnesses large deformations for full-coverage human-like multimodal haptic perception, Wang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-025-67148-y
Institutions as inequality regimes in climate change policy frameworks, Pérez et al., Climate and Development Open Access 10.1080/17565529.2025.2595637
National circumstances matter: How climate change vulnerability and political instability affect greenhouse gas coverage in nationally determined contributions, Koo et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104283
Proposed GHG protocol revisions for scope 2 market-based accounting still create false value chain claims, Brander, Carbon Management Open Access 10.1080/17583004.2025.2602998
Representative CO2 emissions pathways for China’s provinces toward carbon neutrality under the Paris Agreement’s 2 °C target, Peng et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.10.005
The green entrepreneurial boom: how China’s low-carbon policies are reshaping urban economies, Zhu & Xi, Frontiers in Environmental Science 10.3389/fenvs.2025.1715947
Toward carbon peak in China’s manufacturing sector: Robot adoption and capital-embodied technological progress, Zhang et al., Journal of Industrial Ecology 10.1111/jiec.70116
“Nodding through” instead of decision-making: power in participatory governance of the coal phase-out in Lusatia, Germany, Krumm et al., Environmental Politics 10.1080/09644016.2025.2596563
Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Climate data and model application in a data challenged context – Liberia’s opportunities for climate proofed sustainable development, Masike et al., Climate and Development Open Access 10.1080/17565529.2025.2597346
Transdisciplinary knowledge production for integrated climate risk Management: Application of a framework in the Dutch urbanized delta, Mehvar et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100773
Climate change impacts on human health
Capacity building for community heat risk education: Insights from San Diego County, California, peer-trainers, VanderMolen et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2025.100774
Exploratory modeling and analysis of adaptation to urban heat stress under climate change in Switzerland, Federer et al., Urban Climate Open Access 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102729
From awareness to action: A three?lever, CMIP?aligned roadmap to decarbonize and climate?proof Japan’s healthcare sector, Kubota, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000785
Suppressing the adaptation pathway: Negative effects of heat exposure risk on perception, impact, and behavior, Liu et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102730
Urban population exposure to apparent temperature whiplash is projected to increase with global warming, Yang & Zhao, Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-03066-7
Other
Atypical warming pattern of strong 2023-24 El Niño boosts global temperatures to new 1.5 °C record, Jiang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-025-02971-1
Catastrophic wildfires in the Pantanal wetlands as catalysts for transformative change, Pereira et al., Environmental Science & Policy 10.1016/j.envsci.2025.104273
Poleward migration of tropical cyclones over 1980–2024 is dominated by Pacific variability, Zhou et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-025-01866-2
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
A U.S. Scientific Community Vision for Sustained Earth Observations of Greenhouse Gases to Support Local to Global Action, Parazoo et al., AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2025av001914
Bridging the climate research divide: A global imperative for equitable resilience, Hanif et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.adz0469
The canary and the crucible: Fiji’s climate stewardship and a blueprint for planetary resilience, Khan et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2025.1707039
To know is not enough: Adaptation requires means, Giannini & Ribot Irawaty, Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aee0726
Trump team plans to break up ‘global mothership’ of climate science, Witze, Nature 10.1038/d41586-025-04134-w
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
Colorado River Insights, 2025. Dancing With Deadpool, Colorado River Research Group
In a collection of essays and research summaries, eleven members of the Colorado River Research Group touch on issues as diverse as plummeting reservoir storage, climate change trends, risk management, agricultural water conservation, equity, and governance, all against the backdrop of the need to fashion post-2026 reservoir operating rules.
Increasing global temperatures transformed an otherwise average Irish summer into a record breaking warm summer, Bergin et al., ICARUS Climate Research Centre, Maynooth University, Maynooth, Ireland and Met Éireann
The authors examined the two-day rainfall totals associated with Storm Claudia recorded in Dublin, Wicklow and Wexford, along with 30-day antecedent rainfall across nine counties feeding into south-eastern catchments. The analysis shows that prolonged wet conditions in the months leading up to the event left soils saturated and rivers highly responsive to further rainfall. The rainfall associated with the two-day event has increased in magnitude by nearly 12 percent compared with a pre-industrial climate. 30-day rainfall events similar to those seen this autumn have increased in magnitude by nearly seven per cent. Both the two-day and 30-day rainfall events are now twice as likely to occur as they would have been in a pre-industrial climate. Further warming is projected to increase the intensity of similar rainfall events in Ireland, with increases expected at 1.5°C, 2.0°C and 3.0°C of global warming
Asia’s Powerhouses at Risk. Physical Climate Risk Exposure and Resilience Readiness Across Asia’s Electric Utilities, Tong et al., Asia Investor Group on Climate Change and MSCI Institute
Extreme weather and other climate-related hazards could cost listed electric utilities in the Asia-Pacific region an estimated USD $8.4 billion annually in asset damage and lost revenues by 2050, up 33% from current levels. The authors review resilience preparedness at listed utilities in the region that reveals gaps in resilience planning.
Rethinking Materials, Rethinking Carbon: How the EU Can Build Better to Achieve Climate Neutrality, Luca Nipius and Christian Egenhofer, Centre for European Policy Studies
The authors highlight how buildings can act as long-lived carbon storage units, especially when carbon-storing materials like timber, bio-based products and CO2-cured concrete are used, which are then further enhanced by design choices that extend product lifetimes and reuse cycles. By shifting towards carbon-storing materials, the built environment could store gigatons of CO2 while addressing urban development needs, though its actual contribution to net carbon removals remains uncertain.
Turning the Tide Climate Action In and Against Tech, Tamara Kneese, Data & Society
The author examine how, in a time of AI ascendance and data center accelerationism, tech workers and larger coalitions have attempted to reform the tech industry from within while applying external forms of pressure through policymaking and activism. Based on 12 months of research alongside climate-conscious tech workers (both inside and outside of companies) the author documents how tech-focused climate work gets done today and highlights its political stakes. The author concludes with a series of recommendations for how to help close the gap between corporate sustainability metrics and on-the-ground community resistance.
Increasing heavy rainfall and extreme flood heights in a warming climate threaten densely populated regions across Sri Lanka and the Malacca Strait, Kew et al., World Weather Attribution
On 27 November, Cyclonic Storm Ditwah struck Sri Lanka with strong winds and very heavy rainfall, causing the worst flooding and landslides since the early 2000s. Cyclonic Storm Ditwah became the deadliest weather-related disaster since the 2004 tsunami. Meanwhile Indonesia, Malaysia and southern Thailand were experiencing persistent heavy rainfall, intensified by Cyclonic Storm Senyar that made landfall on Indonesia and Malaysia on 26 and 27 November. The influence of climate change on tropical cyclones is rather complex. However, while both regions were hit by tropical cyclones, the impacts mainly stem from the associated heavy rainfall rather than the high winds. Sea surface temperatures and two large modes of natural variability – the ongoing La Niña and the current negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) potentially influence the heavy rainfall as well. To determine whether the observed trends can be attributed to human-driven climate change, we also assess high-resolution climate models that are known to capture rainfall patterns in the study regions best. However, models are not good at simulating the seasonal cycle over these small island regions, and the majority also do not capture the correlation with La Niña or the IOD. Over both study regions, these models do not show consistent results regarding the direction of change, so there are probably aspects of the atmospheric circulation that are systematically misrepresented by the models. This is surprising, given the substantial body of scientific literature reporting increases in heavy rainfall both within our study region and across the broader area.
Navigating Green Geopolitics: Perils and Promise of Energy Transition and the Case of Ukraine, Jiayi Zhou and Barbara Magalhães Teixeira, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
The authors examine how ‘green geopolitics’ is unfolding through the strategies of major powers such as China, the European Union, Russia and the United States, and what this means for Ukraine’s energy transition and recovery. They analyze how energy and industrial policies, sanctions and mineral deals can create new opportunities for resilience and diversification, but also risks of green extractives, asymmetric dependence and renewed hydrocarbon lock-in. The authors argue that Ukraine and its partners should prioritize domestic value creation, workforce development and industrial upgrading, and condition participation in critical minerals and energy value chains on technology transfer, local content and strong environmental and social safeguards. The report concludes that without such measures, the energy transition could replicate older patterns of dependence, but with careful governance it could instead support a more secure, autonomous and sustainable future for Ukraine.
How cheap is battery storage?, Kostantsa Rangelova and Dave Jones, Ember
The authors provide the latest, real-world evidence on the cost of large, long-duration utility-scale Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) projects. Drawing on recent auction results from Saudi Arabia, India and Italy, along with in-depth interviews with project developers, suppliers and analysts across global markets, it captures the most up-to-date picture of battery capex and the Levelized Cost of Storage (LCOS) as of October 2025. The analysis focuses on markets outside China and the United States, where competitive procurement of Chinese-manufactured equipment is reshaping global storage economics.
Wastewater and Water Systems Climate Adaptation Plan, Morrow et al., City of Santa Barbara, California
Flooding and erosion during storms already affect Santa Barbara’s wastewater and water infrastructure. The severity of these impacts is anticipated to accelerate significantly in the coming decades due to climate change, including rising sea levels and heavier rainfall during storms. The City of Santa Barbara developed the Wastewater and Water Systems Climate Adaptation Plan to evaluate the current and future impacts on the City’s water and wastewater systems and outline a phased approach for adapting these systems over time.
Coal Mining Emissions Spotlight Report, The Net Zero Commission
In order for New South Wales (NSW) emissions targets to remain achievable, on-site abatement at existing mines is essential, particularly to reduce fugitive emissions. Additional regulatory measures will be required to achieve measurable on-site abatement. The Commonwealth and NSW Governments are working to improve the accuracy of fugitive emissions reporting at open cut coal mines. Collaboration across these efforts could accelerate and strengthen outcomes. Consistent with the objectives of the Climate Change Act, NSW consent authorities need to meaningfully consider greenhouse gas emissions and their impacts in all planning decisions, including those for additional coal mining. Continued extensions or expansions to coal mining in NSW are not consistent with the emissions reduction targets in the Climate Change Act or the Paris Agreement temperature goals it gives effect to. NSW Government will need to prioritize its consideration of policies that systematically prepare for the decline of coal extraction and provide for a just and orderly transition for coal-producing communities and impacted regional economies.
A Recipe for Climate Disaster. How Food Outlets Dish Out Climate-Intensive Cuisine, Megan Jalynski, Center for Biological Diversity
The author analyzed beef recipe promotion on Instagram across 10 of the top U.S. food media and recipe outlets over a 30-day period. The posted recipes called for a total of more than 57 pounds of beef. If their followers cooked those recipes just once that month, it would contribute as much greenhouse gas pollution as nearly 3 million cars on the road for a year. The author also found that if each Instagram follower of Dotdash Meredith brands Allrecipes and Food & Wine cooked the beef recipes posted by these brands during the analysis month each month for a year, the annual emissions would top 5,000 times the entire 2023 operational footprint of all 40-plus Dotdash Meredith companies.
Five-point plan for a realistic and economically viable EU 2040 climate target, Eurochambres
The European Commission’s proposal for the 2040 climate target prioritizes ambition over economic reality, placing additional strain on businesses already struggling with high energy costs, regulatory burdens and an uneven global playing field. Eurochambres calls for a pragmatic and business-friendly approach that aligns climate ambition with industrial competitiveness. Our five-point plan sets out measures to strengthen flexibilities, including exploring the use of international carbon credits within the EU ETS, accelerating the integration of carbon removals and reinforcing carbon leakage protection.
Big Oil’s Deceptive Climate Ads. How Four Oil Majors Sold False Promises from 2000-2025, Charlotte Marcil, Center for Climate Integrity
While knowingly fueling the climate crisis, four oil majors — BP, Chevron, ExxonMobil, and Shell — spent 25 years running deceptive advertising campaigns to falsely reposition themselves as partners in the fight against climate change. The author examines more than 300 unique climate-related advertisements across seven categories of deception, highlighting Big Oil’s modern campaign of lies.
Virginia is Nuclear. Strategic Plan for Nuclear Energy 2025-2029, Virginia NuclearEnergy Consortium and teh Virginia Nuclear Energy Consortium Authority, The Commonwealth ofVirginia
In 2020, the Virginia Nuclear Energy Consortium (VNEC), at the direction of the Virginia Nuclear Energy Consortium Authority (VNECA), developed and submitted the Virginia Is Nuclear 2020-2024 Strategic Plan in accordance with state statute. This update expands on the objectives, goals, and strategies outlined in the 2020 Strategic Plan for Nuclear Energy and provides a blueprint for the continued advancement of nuclear energy, education, defense, medicine, and even space exploration in the Commonwealth. What follows are the collective thoughts and input of the industry and partner organizations to provide a road map for the next four years.
Kentucky’s Energy Transition: Setting the right path, Roumpani et al., Kentucky Resources Council, Metropolitan Housing Coalition, Mountain Association, and Earthjustice
The authors’ analysis of Kentucky’s electric utilities system shows that the Commonwealth’s continued reliance on aging, uneconomic coal plants is costing more and heightening risks for Kentucky’s households and businesses. The authors evaluate multiple energy pathways through 2050 and identifies strategies that would better meet Kentuckians’ electricity needs at a lower cost and risk to Kentucky ratepayers. The authors conclude that transitioning away from aging coal-fired power plants as they become uneconomic — and accelerating investments in renewable energy, battery storage, and efficiency instead of new gas-fueled power plants — could save Kentuckians billions of dollars while maintaining reliable electricity supplies across the state.
University of Hawai‘i Shallow Geothermal Resources Energy Technology Innovation Partnership Project Final Report, January 2025, Doughty et al., Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
The authors evaluate the technological and market feasibility of shallow geothermal heat exchanger (GHE) technology. The University of Hawai’i requested this analysis to evaluate opportunities in building cooling, energy efficiency, and emissions reduction applications in Hawai‘i. UH has an abundance of geologic and geothermal data and is looking to the national labs’ expertise to execute this analysis. UH is also interested in investigating policy, regulatory, and business conditions advantageous for implementation of a pilot project and more broad deployment of this technology in Hawai‘i.
Heat Resilience: An Opportunity for Cross-Sector Action on Heat in the United States, Uren et al., Trane Technology and Climate and Health Coalition
The authors presents a comprehensive roadmap for building heat resilience, offering detailed recommendations for all businesses, encompassing internal operations, product innovation, supply chain engagement, and influencing the wider enabling environment. Furthermore, they provide sector-specific guidance for pharmaceuticals, consumer health, agriculture, food, the built environment, technology, innovation, insurance, and media and communications. Crucially, the authors also outline concrete policy recommendations for city and state-level action, focusing on information provision, community outreach, and specific policy interventions.
Climate Risk and State Insurance Policy: 2025 in Review, Jordan Haedtler and Amy Weinhouse, Climate Cabinet Education
The authors provide an overview of state insurance policy developments throughout the year. They summarize what passed, what did not, and how state policymakers can learn from their counterparts in effecting policy that meaningfully relieves the financial pressure on their constituents. The authors offer a survey of state governmental responses to the climate-driven insurance crisis across the United States, highlighting the best ways to promote financial stability and shield constituents from rising costs. By reviewing the wide range of policies adopted by different states in 2025, policymakers across the country have the opportunity to learn from other states’ successes while avoiding their mistakes.
Measurable Energy Efficiency to Meet Data Center Growth: How home energy efficiency upgrades will make data centers and AI welcome, Kara Saul Rinaldi and Doug Presley, AnnDyl Policy Group
The authors explore the potential for residential energy efficiency to deliver demand reductions to offset the load of data centers to defer costly infrastructure investments. Using data from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, the authors identified the energy savings and peak load reduction potential of several energy efficiency upgrades and uses the findings to offer a framework for targeted energy efficiency programming that can be offered by data center owners and grid operators to protect local communities. Recommendations include program design focusing on energy efficiency insulation and air/duct sealing upgrades in tandem with demand flexibility and smart thermostats to measure true energy reductions and further optimize savings.
Facing Future Drought: Lessons From the Southeast’s 2023 Fall Flash Drought, Minton et al., U.S.Department of Commerce
The authors wrote the report to improve the monitoring, communication, and response to drought in the Southeastern United States, with a specific focus on flash drought. The 2019 flash drought exposed critical gaps in early warning and monitoring systems, sparking conversations that continued during the 2022 Southeast Drought Early Warning System (DEWS) Regional Meeting. The authors provide a retrospective analysis of the 2023 fall drought, including its development, sectoral impacts, and lessons learned for future resilience.
Securing Battery Energy Storage Systems from Cyberthreats: Best Practices and Trends for Protecting Critical Energy Infrastructure, Fox-Penner et al., The Brattle Group and Dragos
The authors examines the emerging cybersecurity landscape for utility-scale battery energy storage systems installations. Drawing on expert interviews with industry leaders and former federal officials, the authors provide an in-depth analysis of current threats, evolving regulatory frameworks in the U.S. and Europe, supply chain considerations, and actionable strategies that battery storage owners, developers, operators, and maintainers can implement to protect their assets.
SNAPSHOT: Trump’s Unfolding Energy Crisis, Climate Power
Since Trump took office, household electric bills have gone up 13% nationally and 7% year-over-year. Residential natural gas prices are up 98% since Trump took office and 8% year-over-year. Prices are poised to spike even further. In July 2025, the Trump administration and congressional Republicans pushed through a GOP budget bill that is driving up utility costs and destroying jobs by removing cheaper, cleaner energy sources from the grid, all while funding new tax breaks for the oil and gas industries. Over 165,531 jobs have already been lost or stalled in the clean energy sector since Trump’s election. With rising energy demand driven by data centers and extreme heat, gutting clean energy is already taking critical production offline and placing the cost burden on consumers. Since Trump took office, gas and electric utilities have raised or sought to increase bills by more than $85 billion. Americans in 49 states are already facing rising utility costs.
GenCost 2025-26 Consultation draft, Paul Graham and Jenny Hayward, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation
Assumptions about the cost of electricity generation and storage technologies are a key input to any electricity system planning exercise in Australia or around the world. The primary role of GenCost is to provide capital cost data for the electricity modelling and planning community. The project delivers the capital cost data with an emphasis on stakeholder consultation, recognizing that no single organization can be completely across the changing circumstances of all relevant technologies. A secondary goal of the project is to provide an indicator of what the capital cost data means for the cost of delivered electricity and the relative competitiveness of generation technologies. This function is delivered by calculating a metric called the levelised cost of electricity (LCOE) which is the minimum per unit price that a project requires to pay back its investment and running costs over its life. LCOE typically only consider a small number of core project details with the more minor or unique costs of each project ignored so that costs are calculated on a simple and common basis.
OSH Pulse 2025: Occupational safety and health in the era of climate and digital change, Sharon Belli and Femke De Keulenaer, European Agency for Safety and Health at Work
The authors present the findings of the ‘OSH Pulse 2025’ survey, commissioned by EU-OSHA with the aim of gaining insights into the state of occupational safety and health (OSH) in the era of climate and digital change. A representative sample of more than 28,000 employed workers were interviewed between March and April 2025 in each Member State of the EU, and in Iceland, Norway and Switzerland. The survey explored workers’ experiences and perceptions in four key areas: the use of digital technologies for work, psychosocial factors, climate change-related risks and health outcomes related to work.
Arctic Report Card 2025, Druckenmiller et al., National Oceanic and Atmospheric Organization
Now in its 20th year, the Arctic Report Card (ARC) 2025 provides a clear view of a region warming far faster than the rest of the planet. Along with reports on the state of the Arctic’s atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere, and tundra, this year’s report highlights major transformations underway—atlantification bringing warmer, saltier waters northward, boreal species expanding northward into Arctic ecosystems, and “rivers rusting” as thawing permafrost mobilizes iron and other metals. Across these changing landscapes, sustained observations and strong research partnerships, including those led by communities and Indigenous organizations, remain essential for understanding and adaptation.
The Clean Heat Climate Opportunity: A Roadmap for Electrifying Low- and Medium-Temperature Industrial Heat, Mariano et al., The 2035 Initiative
Long considered “hard-to-abate,” the industrial sector has often been overlooked. Most decarbonization efforts have instead focused on the buildings, transportation, and power sectors. Recent federal and state policies suggest momentum is building for industrial decarbonization, but these measures—like other climate reforms—face political headwinds. Growing interest in near-term action is refocusing attention on what can be done today to cut pollution. Electrification of U.S. manufacturing offers a practical path forward. In this roadmap, the authors outline a new approach to understanding electrification of low- and medium-temperature (LMT) process heat in manufacturing. Drawing on a growing body of industrial decarbonization research, they develop tools for policymakers, facility managers, and other stakeholders to plan and implement a cost-effective, clean transition with commercial-ready technologies. They identify states, processes, and policy solutions that can accelerate deployment, based on our rigorous engineering analysis of the U.S. chemicals, pulp & paper, and food & beverage manufacturing sectors.
Mapping the Impact and Informing Economic Resilience. An Analysis of Post-Disaster Needs Assessments, Alexeeva et al., World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Development Programme
The authors seek to meet mounting demand from governments and development partners for more rigorous, sector-specific evidence to guide risk-informed investments, accelerate recovery, and strengthen national resilience systems. Drawing on 91 Post-Disaster Needs Assessments (PDNAs) conducted between 2000 and 2024, the authors examine the toll of tropical cyclones, floods and droughts on sectors including agriculture, housing, transport, health, education, water and sanitation, and industry. The analysis spans Africa, Asia-Pacific, the Americas and Europe, offering a cross-regional view of where losses and damages are concentrated and which systems remain most exposed.
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