The Week That Was: 2023-04-08 (April 8, 2023)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “It’s amazing how much panic one honest man can spread among a multitude of hypocrites.” ― Thomas Sowell
Number of the Week: 50,000 times
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: The This Week section will be brief and focus on two major issues. One issue is the beginning of an extremely simplified explanation of the van Wijngaarden and Happer paper “Atmosphere and Greenhouse Gas Primer.” Last week’s TWTW reproduced the abstract.
The second issue is the impracticality of the Western political fad of Net Zero. There have been a number of analyses showing that the grid energy storage requirements will be enormous and expensive. On October 22, 2022, TWTW reported on the tremendous quantity of minerals needed for Net Zero as calculated by Simon Michaux of the Geological Survey of Finland. In a presentation, former mining executive Mark Mills discusses the impracticality of extracting the minerals required.
Another issue are the new tricks being used by the modeling crowd. Banning “ozone depleting chemicals” is not working. These chemicals are increasing, yet ozone remains roughly constant. Now the latest trick is claiming that these extremely rare (in the atmosphere) chemicals are causing dangerous Arctic warming.
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Simplified Atmosphere Much of the logic in the van Wijngaarden and Happer paper (“Atmosphere and Greenhouse Gas Primer”) is very mathematical. Thus, it is beyond the scope of TWTW. What follows is a simplified version of the work. In the last TWTW, the abstract was reproduced along with a brief description of the US standardized atmosphere.
In developing a simple model to describe the different ways in which the surface loses heat to space, van Wijngaarden and Happer use a two-part atmosphere divided by the Tropopause where remaining water vapor freezes out. For mid-latitudes, the altitude of the Tropopause is about 11 km (36,000 feet). The introduction of the work states: [Boldface added]
“Worldwide industrialization and the associated combustion of fossil fuels have increased the concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) since 1750. These gases along with nitrous oxide (N2O) and assorted lesser players like halocarbon refrigerants are examples of “greenhouse gases”. It should be noted that by far the most abundant greenhouse gas in the atmosphere is water vapor. There is little that one can do about water vapor on our watery planet Earth, with 70% of its surface covered by oceans.
“Greenhouse gases were first discovered by John Tyndall in the course of brilliant experimental work in the 1850’s. Tyndall recognized that greenhouse gases warm Earth’s surface. Some 50 years later Svante Arrhenius made the first theoretical estimates of how much surface warming would result if atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide were doubled. The atmosphere and oceans are so complicated that to this day no one knows what the exact warming will be. But basic physics and the geological record indicate that the warming will be small and probably good for life on Earth. The additional carbon dioxide of the past century has already benefitted agriculture, forestry, and photosynthetic life in general. Both Tyndall and Arrhenius thought that greenhouse warming was a good thing.”
Here it is important to note that the work by Svante Arrhenius that is cited is his 1908 paper in which he corrected the significant overestimates of the greenhouse effect made ten years earlier. In the earlier work, he suggested that a doubling of carbon dioxide may lead to a warming of 5°C (9°F) which may be sufficient to melt the glaciation of the last major Ice Age. Unfortunately, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and its followers continue to cite the earlier work which Arrhenius realized was incorrect speculation.
Van Wijngaarden and Happer then go into the basic physics of heat transfer in the Earth’s atmosphere. Molecules have kinetic energy because of their velocity, but also internal energy due to vibration and rotation (energy of excitation). At any given temperature, there are “excited” molecules that can give up their excess energy by emitting infrared radiation (IR), or by collisions, adding to molecular motion. Molecules typically have a billion collisions per second. They can also absorb energy via collisions, and be “kicked” into excited states that can radiate IR. In fact, about 80% of the IR that goes to space comes from this process occurring at high altitude; only about 20% of the IR to space passes through the atmosphere unaffected by greenhouse gases.
The surface emits a smooth blackbody spectrum of IR, but the IR to space is a spectrum with various “colors” of IR reduced in intensity. Overall, the amount of IR emitted to space is 40% less than the amount of IR emitted by the surface. The authors explain how the IR emission by the surface can be calculated with the equation developed by Ludwig Boltzmann and his thesis advisor Joseph Stefan. (See also Howard Hayden’s papers on Basic Climate Physics, 2022). The majority of the van Wijngaarden-Happer paper is concerned with using high-resolution spectral data to determine how the greenhouse gases determine the spectrum of IR emitted to space.
Before getting into Greenhouse Gases, the basic section on Earth’s Atmosphere concludes:
In summary heat transport by thermal radiation in Earth’s atmosphere is orders of magnitude faster than heat transfer by molecular diffusion. Heat transfer by conduction in air (that is, by molecular diffusion) is so small that it is normally irrelevant compared to heat transfer by radiation or heat transport by convection. Heat convection by moist air, which can carry lots of latent heat, as well as sensible heat, is especially important.
The simplified atmosphere presented by van Wijngaarden and Happer is more complex than the Basic Climate Physics presented by Hayden in that Hayden does not go into complexity of convection or go into describing the complex interactions of greenhouse gases. Thus, Hayden’s work is easier to describe in TWTW and easier to grasp for the general reader. Next week, TWTW will discuss more of the key parts of the van Wijngaarden and Happer paper. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy and http://www.sepp.org/science_papers.cfm?whichyear=2022
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Technological Breakthroughs Possible? Previously, TWTW has discussed the 1,000-page plus report by Simon P. Michaux of the Geological Survey of Finland laboriously estimating the tremendous resources needed to meet the current political fad of “Net Zero” such as the lack of global reserves of nickel and lithium.
Mark Mills was an experimental physicist and a development engineer at Bell Northern Research (Canada’s Bell Labs) and he worked on microprocessors, fiber optics, and missile guidance. He is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute commenting on a variety of energy-economic issues. Earlier he was an executive of a uranium mining and refining company. In discussing the presentation by Mills to the Norwegian SKAGEN Funds New Years Conference, John Robson wrote:
“Engineers are rarely utopians. From professional experience, or the intuitive grasp that helped draw them into the profession in the first place, they understand that before deciding what to do, you have to figure out how to do it, to make sure it’s possible given the inherent trade-offs embedded in reality. For instance, the maxim ‘strong, light and cheap – pick any two’.”
Here is the dilemma many utopians avoid, political or not. To achieve Net Zero, vast amounts of minerals are needed. These require massive expansion of the extraction industry – mining. Mining is as old as civilization. Modern strip mining often requires massive earth moving, which does not readily lend itself to breakthroughs in technology. Those who are railing against the extraction of oil, gas, and coal have no idea of the extensive strip mining required for wind and solar, and have no concept of the thousands of square miles (square kilometers) of strip mining needed to extract and process the minerals needed for a rapid expansion of these industries.
Mark Mills the co-author of The Bottomless Well: The Twilight of Fuel, the Virtue of Waste, and Why We Will Never Run Out of Energy gives a good indication of what may be required. Among the issues he discusses are: How do we build the machines to capture “free wind and solar? How much more mining is required to produce these machines? Increases in required metals is many times – 7 times to 70 times – not a minor percentage. About 100 gigatons per year? It takes about 16 years to start a new mine. China has chosen to be the world’s largest mineral refiner, more dominant than OPEC.
Photos and essays on “green energy” mining are also presented. For example:
“The production of lithium through evaporation ponds uses a lot of water – around 21 million litres per day. Approximately 2.2 million litres of water are needed to produce one ton of lithium.”
“The growing interest in lithium has seen the world’s largest-known reserves increase significantly. There are around 80 million tonnes of identified reserves globally as of 2019, according to the US Geological Survey (USGS).
“After South America (chiefly Bolivia, Chile and Argentina) the next biggest lithium-producing country is the United States, followed closely by Australia and China.”
Salar de Atacama [Chile] “The salt flat encompasses 3,000 km2 (1,200 sq mi) is about 100 km (62 mi) long and 80 km (50 mi) wide, which makes it the third largest in the world.”
“… [in] 2017 [it] provided about 36% of the world’s lithium carbonate supply,”
Regarding mining in the Congo, it is useful to realize that the movement to regulate child labor started in Great Britain in 1802 in an effort to control the apprenticeship of poor children to cotton-mill owners. By the mid-1800 effective measures were being taken. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, Questioning Green Elsewhere, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Salar_de_Atacama, and https://www.tomhegen.com/collections/the-lithium-series-i
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Changes in Threat? The 1987 Montreal Protocol finalized a global agreement on phasing out the production and consumption of ozone depleting substances. Foolishly, the US Senate ratified the agreement in 1988, making it the law of the land. According to the US Department of State:
“With full implementation of the Montreal Protocol, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) estimates that Americans born between 1890 and 2100 are expected to avoid 443 million cases of skin cancer, approximately 2.3 million skin cancer deaths, and more than 63 million cases of cataracts, with even greater benefits worldwide. The Montreal Protocol’s Scientific Assessment Panel estimates that with implementation of the Montreal Protocol we can expect near complete recovery of the ozone layer by the middle of the 21st century.”
The ozone depleting substances (ODS) are not coming down in the atmosphere and the atmosphere shows little or no ill effects. The ozone layer (O3) is formed by solar ultraviolet radiation interacting with molecular oxygen (O2) roughly between 6 (10km) to 30 miles (48 km) above the earths surface. Since the US has no treaty on greenhouse gases, there is a significant political effort to expand the ozone treaty to greenhouse gases. Thus, we are seeing modeling studies claiming that ODSs are causing “global warming” such as the one with an abstract stating:
“Analyzing all-but-one-forcing, 20-member ensembles of historical simulations with a state-of-the-art Earth System Model, we find that over the 1955–2005 period ODSs are responsible for 30% of global warming, 37% of Arctic warming, and 33% of summertime Arctic sea ice loss.”
The Earth System Model fails when tested against atmospheric temperatures trends, but it must be accepted on Arctic warming with a one percentage point accuracy? See links under Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science and https://www.epa.gov/ozone-pollution-and-your-patients-health/what-ozone#:~:text=Stratospheric%20ozone%20is%20formed%20naturally,radiation%20reaching%20the%20Earth’s%20surface.
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SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD – THE JACKSON
SEPP is conducting its annual vote for the recipient of the coveted trophy, The Jackson, a lump of coal. Readers are asked to nominate and vote for who they think is most deserving. Senators Schumer and Manchin won in 2022.
The voting will close on June 30. Please send your nominee and a brief reason why the person is qualified for the honor to Ken@SEPP.org. The awardee will be announced at the annual meeting of the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness on July 7 to 9.
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Number of the Week: 50,000 times: The Center for Health Security for Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Health states:
Cyanide is a naturally occurring chemical, found in many plants, that has been used in conventional warfare and poisoning for more than two millennia. It is highly lethal, whether inhaled as a gas, ingested in solid form, or absorbed through topical exposure. Two notable incidents in recent history include the Jonestown Massacre in 1978 and the Tylenol poisonings in 1982, which highlight the lethality of this poison. Despite its historical use as a chemical warfare agent, the most common cause of cyanide poisoning is smoke inhalation from fires.
In discussing EPA proposed safety margins for “forever chemicals” PFOA and PFOC, in Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCL) Susan Goldhaber environmental toxicologist writes in the American Council on Science and Health:
“EPA proposed an MCL of 4 parts per trillion (4 ppt) for PFOA and PFOS. This is the lowest level detectable in drinking water – analytical methods cannot find these chemicals below 4 ppt.
“For comparison purposes, the MCL for cyanide, which everybody recognizes is an extremely toxic chemical, is 0.2 parts per million (ppm) – equivalent to 200,000 ppt. Since the MCLs are based on health, this translates to PFOA/PFOS being 50,000 times more toxic than cyanide, which should strike any scientist as somewhat absurd.” It appears that sections of the EPA are competing for the title “Fantasyland Washington.” See links under Science, Policy, and Evidence and EPA and other Regulators on the March. [If a chemical lasts forever, it does not react chemically with anything—including the human body. How, then, can it be toxic?] See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and https://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-work/publications/cyanide-fact-sheet#:~:text=Cyanide%20is%20a%20naturally%20occurring,or%20absorbed%20through%20topical%20exposure.
Censorship
Antibiotics: The Perfect Storm, A Retrospective
By David Shlaes, ACSH, Mar 29, 2023
https://www.acsh.org/news/2023/03/29/antibiotics-perfect-storm-retrospective-16960
[SEPP Comment: Tired of Google censorship.]
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry
Swiss Politician Calls On Making Climate Denial A “Criminal Offence”…Obstructs “Effective Measures”!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Apr 2, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Green open-mindedness?]
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Atmosphere and Greenhouse Gas Primer
By W. A. van Wijngaarden (1) and W. Happer, Department of Physics and Astronomy (2), (1) York University, Canada & (2) Department of Physics, Princeton University, USA, March 3, 2023
https://wvanwijngaarden.info.yorku.ca/files/2023/03/GreenhousePrimerArxiv.pdf?x45936
Where are the minerals of tomorrowyear?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 5, 2023
Link to: The energy transition delusion: inescapable mineral realities
By Mark Mills, SKAGEN Funds New Years Conference Jan 11, 2023
Assessment of the Extra Capacity Required of Alternative Energy Electrical Power Systems to Completely Replace Fossil Fuels
By Simon P. Michaux, Geological Survey of Finland, Aug 20, 2021
Water Vapor, Clouds Are The Real Direct Masters Controlling Our Climate
Clouds reduce the energy at the surface, i.e. they currently cool the climate.
The DIY way to demystify “greenhouse gas” claims, Part 6
By Fred F. Mueller, Posted by P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Mar 31, 2023
“Why is the strongest ‘greenhouse gas’ classified as not being a ‘real’ greenhouse gas?”
Tornadoes, Climate Change, and the Media
By Anthony Watts, American Thinker, Apr 7, 2023
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2023/04/tornadoes_climate_change_and_the_media.html
Bill Ponton’s “Reality Check” On UK Wind Power: The Issue Of Energy Storage
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Apr 3, 2023
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2023-4-3-bill-pontons-reality-check-on-uk-wind-power-energy-storage
“If you start trying to shift the coal and nuclear production in the UK to wind, and if you then consider major losses from trying to store power for up to a year before use, you can multiply that $3 trillion by a factor of 2 or 3 or maybe 4. Whatever.
“As stated many times at this site, this will never happen. The only question is how disastrous the crash will be when it all falls apart.”
Important New Report Explores The Futility Of Wind Power
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Apr 1, 2023
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2023-4-1-important-new-report-explores-the-futility-of-wind-power
The Cost of Increasing Wind Power Capacity: A Reality Check
By Bill Ponton, Princeton Venture Advisory, March 2023
https://www.dropbox.com/s/d4zuzc5uyjoes0o/The%20Cost%20of%20Increasing%20UK%20Wind%20Power%20Capacity%20-%20A%20Reality%20Check%20%28rev%203%29.pdf?dl=0
“Ponton’s Report follows and builds on prior work of Roger Andrews and Ken Gregory that has previously been featured at this site. The idea of each of these researchers has been to use publicly available data from some jurisdiction as to electricity consumption, and as to electricity generation from each source — natural gas, nuclear, wind, solar, coal, hydro, etc. — to build a spreadsheet that can then be manipulated to investigate what happens on changing various assumptions going forward. n 2018,”
History and Human Biology Argue for Warmth, not Cold
By Vijay Jayaraj, CO2 Coalition, Apr 6, 2023
Why You Should Ignore The Latest IPCC Climate Report
By Joseph D’Aleo, ICECAP, Apr 2, 2023
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/why_you_should_ignore_the_latest_ipcc_climate_report/
“For the last 35 years, the IPCC has developed this mandate into an industry of perpetual reporting on a six-year cycle designed to instill constant fear of human-caused global warming.”
The IPCC is Promoting a Left-Wing Political Agenda Masquerading as ‘Science’
By Chris Morrison, The Daily Sceptic, April 3, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Once the main report of the physical science is complete, the IPCC undermines its scientific integrity with subsequent reports, often inserting fabricated evidence. The 2000-year hockey stick in the Summary for Policymakers is a classic example.]
Challenging the Orthodoxy – RIP
Nigel Lawson (1932-2023)
Press Release, The Global Warming Policy Foundation, Apr 4, 2023
Defending the Orthodoxy
Advancing NASA’s Climate Strategy
By Staff, NASA, 2023 [H/t William Readdy]
“To help assess and advance NASA’s climate strategy, a Climate Strategy Working Group (CSWG) was created and now falls under the guidance of the Office of the Chief Scientist. The CSWG found:”
[SEPP Comment: Will the chief scientist discover atmospheric temperature trends from satellite measurements or ignore them?]
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Ozone-depleting substances play bigger role in global warming than previously thought
By David Whitehouse, Net Zero Watch, Apr 6, 2023
Link to paper: Large Contribution of Ozone-Depleting Substances to Global and Arctic Warming in the Late 20th Century
By M. Sigmond, et al, Geophysical Research Letters, Mar 2, 2023
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2022GL100563
Leading ozone scientist says more climate surprises likely
By Kelly MacNamara, Paris (AFP) March 21, 2023
https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Leading_ozone_scientist_says_more_climate_surprises_likely_999.html
“It’s a great time to be a climate scientist, but on the other hand, it seems to me that every year something important and scary is happening.”
[SEPP Comment: From a professor at MIT?]
Ozone-depleting CFCs hit record despite ban: study
By Linnea Pedersen, AFP, Apr 3, 2023
https://www.spacedaily.com/reports/Ozone-depleting_CFCs_hit_record_despite_ban_study_999.html
British Climate Activist Responds To Ponton’s UK Wind Power “Reality Check”
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Apr 6, 2023
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2023-4-4-british-climate-activist-responds-to-pontons-uk-wind-power-reality-check
Hotter weather not diminishing runoff and river discharge as expected
Press Release, by European Space Agency, Apr 4, 2023
https://phys.org/news/2023-04-hotter-weather-diminishing-runoff-river.html
[SEPP Comment: Expected by whom?]
New data raises concerns over global sea level: study
By Joe Jacquez, The Hill, Apr 6, 2023
Link to paper: Rapid, buoyancy-driven ice-sheet retreat of hundreds of metres per day
By Christine Batchelor, et al, Nature, Apr 5, 2023
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-05876-1.epdf?sharing_token=W4MSXr3ub-_vi8TktgKgu9RgN0jAjWel9jnR3ZoTv0NFKsvTFA8v6CuXyBr_cVSGgzwK4XXUHHfzkxA8946CDTv9neqa-5dmIGo83XRFILllFoC5lIWwi2jpIhQ1X_cx_xCYxLs_sNJHLNlg22TxASOApVcXN6b2iI4EpaIEIJoTJe3CgFBgdURkelzEMiUucVwpjgnOvBz-X-vPbx-tdd7f9yUTGPyzHJr-a2XiHqA%3D&tracking_referrer=www.washingtonpost.com
From the abstract on the satellite record: “The spacing of the ridges shows that pulses of rapid grounding-line retreat, at rates ranging from 55 to 610 m day, occurred across low-gradient (±1°) ice-sheet beds during the last deglaciation.”
[SEPP Comment; The last deglaciation took thousands of years. Is there reason for concern?]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
ESG tentacles could strangle growth in ASEAN countries
By Vijay Jayaraj, BizPac Review, Mar 30, 2023
https://www.bizpacreview.com/2023/03/30/esg-tentacles-could-strangle-growth-in-asean-countries-1345595/
The Climate Madness Of 2023
Editorial Board, I & I, Apr 5, 2023
The IPCC’s (remaining) credibility got blown away in a tropical cyclone
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 5, 2023
“This blunder was a toxic mix of dishonesty and carelessness amplified by the fact that the IPCC is now dominated by activists with axes to grind. Unless they retract these errors, kick out the clowns responsible and notify world leaders of the correction, you are entirely justified in assuming that any and all parts of IPCC reports are likewise unreliable.”
The great renewables rip-off continues
Consumers face huge price rises for green power
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, Apr 6, 2023
“For years, ministers and civil servants have been telling the public that renewables are cheap. Make no mistake, they have been engaged in a cynical deception of the British public.”
Ugh, spring, we’re doomed
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 5, 2023
“Arguably an early spring beats endless winter? Yup. “Early emergence gives them extra time to eat, which lets them get fatter and helps them produce more offspring.” So what seems to be the problem?”
ChatGPT Says California Is Experiencing a Drought
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Apr 7, 2023
Change in US Administrations
Biden nominee wants to hijack little-known agency to ram through climate agenda
Carlson failed to report her consulting work with a dark money-fueled climate law firm on a Transportation Department recusal filing
By Thomas Catenacci, Fox News, April 4, 2023
https://www.foxnews.com/politics/biden-nominee-wants-hijack-little-known-agency-ram-through-climate-agenda
[SEPP Comment: No conflict of interest. She is doing exactly what she is interested in doing.]
Problems in the Orthodoxy
The Earth’s Green Future is Forke
By Planning Engineer (Russ Schussler), Climate Etc. April 3, 2023
[SEPP Comment: China, South Asia, and Africa will go their own way. How should the UN and its followers force China to change?]
Seeking a Common Ground
Restoring Trust in Government by Using IQA
By William Kovacs, His Blog, April 2023 [H/t Paul Driessen]
Economic Implications of a Phased-in EV Mandate in Canada
By Ross McKitrick, His Blog, Apr 6, 2023
https://www.rossmckitrick.com/
Economic Implications of a Phased-in EV Mandate in Canada
Working paper by Ross McKitrick, Ideas, 2023
https://ideas.repec.org/p/gue/guelph/2023-01.html
EPA Scientifically Challenged PFAS Numbers
By Susan Goldhaber, ACSH, Mar 28, 2023
https://www.acsh.org/news/2023/03/28/epa-scientifically-challenged-pfas-numbers-16954
Measurement Issues — Surface
#CoolCllimateData: Rutgers Snow Lab
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 5, 2023
Measurement Issues — Atmosphere
UAH Global Temperature Update for March, 2023: +0.20 deg. C
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, April 3, 2023
“The linear warming trend since January, 1979 remains at +0.13 C/decade (+0.11 C/decade over the global-averaged oceans, and +0.18 C/decade over global-averaged land).”
Global Temperature Report, March 2023
By Staff, Earth System Science Center, The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Map: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2023/march/202303_Map.png
Graph: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2023/march/202303_Bar.png
Text: https://www.nsstc.uah.edu/climate/2023/march/GTR_202303MAR_1.pdf
The ability to identify Category 4 and Category 5 Atlantic hurricanes with mid-20th-century tools
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 5, 2023
From the CO2Science Archive:
Changing Weather
Record March Cold Over the Western U.S. and Northern Plains
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Apr 4, 2023
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2023/04/record-march-cold-over-western-us-and.html
“My advice: don’t think about buying tomato plants in April.”
Biden administration announces $343 million for tribal water resources, Colorado River conservation
By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, Apr 6, 2023
A Dry Winter for Washington State But Not For the Rest of the West Coast: But Change is Coming!
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Apr 6, 2023
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2023/04/a-dry-winter-for-washington-state-but.html
California snowpack climbs to all-time high, more winter weather on the way
By Sharon Udasin, The Hill, Mar 31, 2023
Lake Mead’s level jumps 3 feet — but hope may be short-lived
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Apr 6, 2023
Largest Snowstorm On Record At Casper, Wyoming
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Apr 6, 2023
Changing Climate
Scientists Say A 6°C Warmer-Than-Today Arctic Is ‘Optimal’ For Thermophile Species
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Apr 6, 2023
Link to latest paper: From everywhere all at once: Several colonization routes available to Svalbard in the early Holocene
By Viktorie Brožová, et al., Ecology and Evolution, 2023
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1002/ece3.9892
Changing Seas
Bellies Full of Coral
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, April 5, 2023
“A Bumphead parrot fish will feed on about 5 tonnes of live coral in a single year. They often hang around in groups of about 30, with that one cluster all up consuming more coral than the entire live export coral trade takes each year from the Great Barrier Reef (100 tonnes versus 150 tonnes). In short, these fish have bellies full of coral – lots of coral.”
“We live in an age that tends to promote empathy for victims above all else, so I am surprised there are not stories cancelling Parrot fish.”
[SEPP Comment: Many photos.]
Seaweed bloom reaches record size: ‘Major beaching events are inevitable’
By Alix Martichoux, The Hill, Apr 3, 2023
[SEPP Comment; The new fear, chocking on seaweed? Peak season is usually in June or July.]
New Study: Sea Levels Have Receded Over Last 1500 Years, Including Since 1800s, Along India’s Coasts
New Study: Sea Levels Have Receded Over Last 1500 Years, Including Since 1800s, Along India’s Coasts
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Apr 3, 2023
Link to paper: Late Holocene morphodynamic evolution of Thamirabarani delta and Thoothukudi tombolo in South India: insights from integrated analysis of early cartographic documents and satellite images
By Ekta Gupta & Mandyam Bhoolokam Rajani, Journal of Coastal Conservation, Jan 24, 2023
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11852-023-00932-4
[SEPP Comment: May have been caused by sedimentation.]
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
Greenland Temperature Updates
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 7, 2023
“The data is of course extremely damning for the alarmist narrative about rising temperatures in the Arctic and Greenland meltdowns, as it shows that Greenland was just as warm in the 1930s to 50s as it has been in the last two decades, with the exception of that one warm year in 2010.”
Lowering Standards
Ignoring dead whales, NOAA proposes another site survey off New Jersey
By David Wojick, CFACT, April 5th, 2023
https://www.cfact.org/2023/04/05/ignoring-dead-whales-noaa-proposes-another-site-survey-off-new-jersey/
How to do climate ‘science’ journalism
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 5, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
It matters what you believe
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 5, 2023
“’California counts on a system of about 1,400 human-made surface reservoirs and thousands upon thousands of miles of levees to manage surface water. About two dozen large reservoirs are responsible for more than half of the overall storage.”
Ten photographs that made the world wake up to climate change
By Nell Lewis, CNN, Mar 30, 2023
https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/29/world/climate-change-photography-paul-nicklen-cristina-mittermeier-c2e-spc-intl-scn-climate/index.html
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Tornadoes touching down in new areas. Season is starting sooner and lasting longer, experts say
By Ezra Maille, Phys.org, Apr 3, 2023 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://phys.org/news/2023-04-tornadoes-areas-season-sooner-longer.html
Comment by Meteorologist Chuck Wiese: “Cold phase PDO….Gulf of Alaska and eastern Pacific COLDER….Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic gulf stream warmer. La Nina strengthens this with a colder than average tropical Pacific.
“Result? Latitudinal temperature gradients increase, potential energy increased and is liberated through storm development and the incipient Rossby wave is much amplified and upon crossing the Rockies, redevelops the “Colorado Low pressure system” and sometimes Texas panhandle low pressure that draws the warmer Gulf of Mexico moisture northward to collide with the cold air advected eastward and southward from the Rockies and high latitudes. A perfect recipe for very strong and tornadic storms that generate in the Midwest and on the east coast.”
[SEPP Comment: Similar swarms of tornadoes occurred about ten years ago. Also, on August 15, 1787, there was a four-state tornado swarm in New England, long before the global warming scare. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four-State_Tornado_Swarm ]
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
Poll of almost 500 global climate scientists reveals many are having their work hindered by online abuse
Press Release, Global Witness, Apr 4, 2023 [H/t Richard Courtney]
https://www.globalwitness.org/en/press-releases/poll-almost-500-global-climate-scientists-reveals-many-are-having-their-work-hindered-online-abuse/
[SEPP Comment: Because their “findings” are not supported by evidence and they demand an authoritative government to destroy human prosperity, there is no reason to criticize their “beautiful” work.]
“Online Abuse”
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Apr 7, 2023
[SEPP Comment: See link immediately above.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
AI chatbot encouraged man obsessed with climate change to kill himself to save planet
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, April 3, 2023
[SEPP Comment: An example of successful propaganda?]
On Climate, the Media is the Massage
By Tony Thomas, Quadrant Online, Apr 4, 2023
The Less It Warms, the Louder Is Zero Carbon Push
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, Apr 7, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda on Children
Ross Clark: Stop terrorizing the young with climate doom
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 1, 2023
“We are not going to drown, starve or die of thirst because of climate change. Rather, the most immediate danger lies in exaggerating the threats and rendering an entire generation incapacitated by fear.”
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Children for Propaganda
Phoebe Plummer, The Spoilt Brat
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 2, 2023
[SEPP Comment: The 21-year “oppressed” child attended St. Mary’s school that cost £45,000 a year.]
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Head of JP Morgan says governments could seize property to build wind and solar farms
Bankers are just nice people
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Apr 7, 2023
“Dimon’s annual letter to Shareholders starts with all the right catchphrases. He comes in ‘defense of democracy and essential freedoms, including free enterprise’, but he doesn’t seem too interested in private property rights. He’s exasperated with people who won’t consider a carbon tax to stem climate change, though he doesn’t say anything about people who have considered it and think it’s Shamenistic VooDoo”
NOAA, communities to map heat inequities in 14 states, 1 international city
Press Release, NOAA, Apr 4, 2023 [H/t Joseph Bast]
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-communities-to-map-heat-inequities-in-14-states-1-international-city
[SEPP Comment: Why not continue to the dead of winter?]
Questioning European Green
Welcome To Basket Case Britain
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 1, 2023
Germans Overwhelmingly Fed Up With Move To Green Energies As Massive Costs Loom
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Apr 5, 2023
Heat Pumps Are For The Rich…Maintenance Costs, Amortization Times Higher Than Gas Furnaces
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Apr 7, 2023
“There’s also the talk of requiring mandatory smart meters to be installed along with heat pump systems, which would make it possible for power companies to switch off heat pumps. Control of when and how much to heat would thus be out of the homeowner’s control.”
[SEPP Comment: Allow enough power to keep the pipes from freezing?]
Power Showers May Be Banned
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 5, 2023
“They won’t be happy until they control every aspect of our lives:”
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Grid lock
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 5, 2023
The problem of scale seems to baffle people.
In pictures: South America’s ‘lithium fields’ reveal the dark side of our electric future
By Maeve Campbell, EuroNews, Nov 21, 2022
https://www.euronews.com/green/2022/02/01/south-america-s-lithium-fields-reveal-the-dark-side-of-our-electric-future
What’s Green About This?
Electric vehicles depend upon minerals we are increasingly prevented from mining here in the “U.S. The minerals instead get produced in places of horror for children in the Democratic Republic of Congo”
By Stephen Heins, His Blog, Apr 1, 2023
https://stephenheins.substack.com/p/whats-green-about-this?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
The Abundance Agenda: Energy, the Master Resource
Abundant energy will make everything else in our economy cheaper and more plentiful
By Richard Morrison, Discourse, “Where Ideas Meet” Mar 28, 2023
Litigation Issues
Federal court blocks Manchin-backed pipeline in West Virginia
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Apr 4, 2023
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Tidbits
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Apr 5, 2023
“As Canadian carbon taxes continue to soar, the Trudeau administration continued to insist that we were getting more back than we’re paying in. And the math continued to say no we’re not.”
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
‘War of the states’: EV, chip makers lavished with subsidies
By Marc Levy, AP, Apr 1, 2023
https://thehill.com/policy/technology/war-of-the-states-ev-chip-makers-lavished-with-subsidies/
EPA and other Regulators on the March
EPA Administrator Regan Demands $375 Million For ‘Environmental Justice’
By Laurel Duggan, Environment and Climate News, Apr 3, 2023
EPA proposes tighter pollution limits for coal plants
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Apr 5, 2023
“The agency has projected compliance with the regulation will cost between $230 million to $330 million but will deliver between $2.4 billion to $3 billion in health and climate benefits.
“Specifically, the changes are expected to result in reductions of 82 pounds of mercury, 800 tons of soot and 5 million tons of carbon dioxide in the year 2025.”
EPA proposes new chemical plant regulations aimed at cutting exposure to toxic substances
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Apr 6, 2023
[SEPP Comment; No specifics – Expanding regulation for the sake of expanding government power?]
Energy Dept. to ban sale of some light bulbs: Here’s why
By Dray Clark and Deavan Markham, The Hill, Apr 4, 2023
“Halogen bulbs and compact fluorescent lights (CFL) will also be banned because of their mercury content.”
[SEPP Comment: CFLs were once the darling of the greens.]
Energy Issues – Non-US
John Catsimatidis: OPEC Move Will Trigger 10-15¢ Gas Hikes
“We’re in an Economic War”
By Jerry Rogers, Real Clear Wire, Apr 4, 2023
https://www.realclearwire.com/articles/2023/04/04/john_catsimatidis_opec_move_will_trigger_10-15_gas_hikes_891922.html
“He blamed the reduction of US oil drilling as the root problem, stating that the country could be an oil exporter and control the world market. President Biden has ceded control of the world market for oil with anti-drilling policy, Catsimatidis said.”
“Catsimatidis predicted that the American poor and middle class would be hit the hardest, and that massive sums of capital would move from North America to China, Russia, and Saudi Arabia.”
Now It’s Gone, Gone, Gone – U.S. Crude Oil Helps Replace Russian Barrels In Europe
By Kevin Waguespack, RBN Energy, Apr 4, 2023
https://rbnenergy.com/now-its-gone-gone-gone-us-crude-oil-helps-replace-russian-barrels-in-europe
Putin pushes Russian [seaborne] oil exports to record high
By Staff, The Telegraph, Apr 6, 2023
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/04/03/oil-prices-opec-saudi-production-cuts/
Energy Issues — US
Are Transformers a National Security Risk?
By Donn Dears, Power For USA, Apr 4, 2023
“Today, only DTs are built in any quantity in the United States. Nearly half the DTs are imported. A very few substation transformers and none of the large power transformers are built in the US.
“Chips are seen as important for national security, but without power transformers there may be no need for chips.”
Calling All Consumers: It’s Time to Recall Our Failing Energy Policies
By David Holt, Real Clear Energy, April 03, 2023
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/04/03/calling_all_consumers_its_time_to_recall_our_failing_energy_policies_891217.html
Southeast Ratebase Debacles: Tony Bartelme Revisited (nuclear, CO2 capture)
By Robert Bradley Jr. Master Resource, Apr 6, 2023
“One part of the [Kemper] plant does work — the section that burns natural gas. A new natural gas plant typically costs about $700 million. So, at $7.5 billion and counting, industry analysts say Kemper is on its way to becoming the most expensive natural gas plant in the world — smack in the middle of one of the poorest counties in the country.”
[SEPP Comment: How regulated utilities get wealthy: Bid low on beliefs, run up costs.]
NYC drivers already feeling pinch of OPEC’s ‘painful’ surprise oil production cuts
By Reuven Fenton and Steve Janoski, New York Post, Apr 4, 2023
https://nypost.com/2023/04/04/nyc-drivers-already-feeling-pinch-of-opecs-oil-production-cuts/
Washington’s Control of Energy
Alaska Is Essential to U.S. Energy Security
By Rick Whitbeck, Real Clear Energy, April 03, 2023
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/04/03/alaska_is_essential_to_us_energy_security_891593.html
Rural America Needs Permitting Reform
By Pete Stauber & Dan Newhouse, Real Clear Energy, April 05, 2023
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/04/05/rural_america_needs_permitting_reform_891689.html
Reps. Pete Stauber (MN-08) and Dan Newhouse (WA-04).
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Bold Action Now Will Deliver Fusion Energy in Time for Our Future
By Warrick Matthews, Real Clear Energy, March 30, 2023
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/03/30/bold_action_now_will_deliver_fusion_energy_in_time_for_our_future_890007.html
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Windfarms renege on electricity contracts for a second year
Gaming the system may cost consumers one £billion
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, Apr 3, 2023
Harris announces largest single investment in US solar power at Georgia plant
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Apr 6, 2023
“Harris’s office estimated the power produced by the order would generate enough electricity to power 140,000 households.”
[SEPP Comment: No cost “investment”? Clear skies over Georgia?]
Massachusetts Offshore Wind Troubles
By Allen Brooks, Master Resource, April 5, 2023
“With two of the three projects in trouble, Massachusetts will not meet its clean energy goals, and when they do, the power prices will be higher than expected…. The energy chaos in the state is getting interesting with significant implications for the offshore wind business.”
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
The Contenders, Part 3 – LIGH2T Hydrogen Hub Seen As Platform For Industrial-Scale Decarbonization
By Jason Lindquist, RBN Energy, Apr 3, 2023
https://rbnenergy.com/the-contenders-part-3-ligh2t-hydrogen-hub-seen-as-platform-for-industrial-scale-decarbonization
‘Fuel of the Future’ Methanol: Remembering a California Energy Failure
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, April 4, 2023
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
China’s Green Leap Leaves AEP Confused
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 7, 2023
From the article: “At the current pace, EV sales in China will hit eight million this year, helped by the proliferation of battery-swapping stations. Rather than charging your own car, you do an instant swap. No need to wait. No need for charge-points everywhere.”
[SEPP Comment: Homewood makes great points, but he misses the one above. “Nissan Leaf has an average battery weight of just 303 kg (668 pounds).” Labor costs to change are sketchy, but may bet about $1000 and require hours.]
https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/nissan-leaf-battery-replacement]
California Dreaming
Governor Newsom Signs Gas Price Gouging Law: “California Took on Big Oil and Won”
Press Release, Office of Governor Gavin Newsom, Mar 28, 2023
https://www.gov.ca.gov/2023/03/28/governor-newsom-signs-gas-price-gouging-law-california-took-on-big-oil-and-won/
“HOW IT WORKS: Authored by Senator Nancy Skinner (D-Berkeley), co-sponsored by Attorney General Rob Bonta and approved by a supermajority in both the Senate and Assembly, SBx1-2 creates a dedicated, day-in and day-out, independent watchdog to root out price gouging by oil companies and authorizes the California Energy Commission (CEC) to create a penalty to hold the industry accountable.”
[SEPP Comment: Who will hold the state legislators accountable when utilities fail?]
California vs. Affordable Gasoline (Senate Bill No. 2, March 28, 2023)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, April 3, 2023
“Applicable to “major oil producers, refiners, marketers, oil transporters, and oil storers,” Senate Bill No. 2 (Bx1-2), 12,880 words long, would authorize the California Energy Commission to:
“’set a maximum gross gasoline refining margin … [and if so] to establish a penalty for exceeding the maximum gross gasoline refining margin…. [and] petition the court to enjoin a refiner….’
“The bill would also:
“’expand the scope of the crime of perjury, thereby imposing a state-mandated local program… [and] establish the Division of Petroleum Market Oversight … [and] establish the Independent Consumer Fuels Advisory Committee …. to advise the commission and the division.’”
Ugly deeds, politics and high drama swirl amid the waters of a re-emerging Tulare Lake
By Lois Henry, SJV Water, Mar 18, 2023 [H/t Jim Buell]
“SJV Water is an independent, nonprofit news site dedicated to covering water in the San Joaquin Valley.”
Biden administration approves California’s electric truck mandate
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Mar 31, 2023
“New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Oregon, Washington and Vermont have also adopted California’s truck standards.”
Other Scientific News
Robotic hand can identify objects with just one grasp
By Adam Zewe, MIT News, Apr 4, 2023
https://www.robodaily.com/reports/Robotic_hand_can_identify_objects_with_just_one_grasp_999.html
Computer Superstitions
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Apr 6, 2023
Video: Also, a bit of background on Heller
Other News that May Be of Interest
ChatGPT Says California Is Experiencing a Drought
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Apr 7, 2023
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Gaviscon For Cows
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Apr 2, 2023
“All dairy cows will be given ‘methane suppressants’ to stop them belching so much under the Government’s net zero plans.”
Fifteen Years Of The Arctic Death Spiral
By Tony Heller, Apr 5, 2023
To Reduce Methane In Cow Burps, Bill Gates Launching Startup To Feed Cows Seaweed Supplement
Bill Gates is launching a startup to produce seaweed supplements for cows designed to cut down on methane produced when they belch. The Wyo Farm Bureau laughed at the proposal.
By Kevin Killough, Cowboy State Daily, March 10, 2023 [H/t Eduard Harinck]
https://cowboystatedaily.com/2023/03/10/to-reduce-methane-in-cow-burps-bill-gates-launching-startup-to-feed-cows-seaweed/
[SEPP Comment: In time to harvest the great “belt” of seaweed approaching Florida?]
Global Warming Causes More Home Runs
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Apr 7, 2023
Link to paper: Global warming, home runs, and the future of America’s pastime
By Christopher W. Callahan, et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Apr 7, 2023
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/aop/BAMS-D-22-0235.1/BAMS-D-22-0235.1.xml
“’Global warming is juicing home runs in Major League Baseball,’ said study co-author Justin Mankin, a Dartmouth climate scientist.”
“It’s basic physics.”
[SEPP Comment: Heller presents charts from the US Historical Climatology Network Stations from 1895 to 2023. Basic physics is not what it used to be.]
Tom Steyer to begin net-zero apartment upgrades nationwide
By Olafimihan Oshin The Hill, Apr 5, 2023
“Bloomberg reported on Wednesday that Galvanize Climate Solutions’ latest plan will rest on strategic asset acquisition, proprietary methods of retrofitting buildings and adding solar panels in buildings across the country, and result in the long-term payoff of assembling a portfolio of energy-efficient building.”
ARTICLES
1. An Oil Price Warning for Democrats
Making themselves hostage to the Saudi Crown prince is unwise.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, April 3, 2023
https://www.wsj.com/articles/oil-prices-saudi-producers-opec-russia-biden-99af6177?mod=hp_opin_pos_2#cxrecs_s
TWTW Summary: After discussing immediate price change the editorial states:
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia already cut oil production by two million barrels a day in October. Monday’s additional reduction took markets by surprise, as the price surge suggests. If it continues, it will complicate decisions by the Federal Reserve and other central bankers trying to get inflation under control.
Not too long ago, before Joe Biden became President, the U.S. produced enough oil to be a price setter in the global market. But Mr. Biden unleashed an assault on U.S. fossil-fuel production that includes permit delays and regulatory hostility that have reduced the incentive to invest in more wells. [Boldface added]
Mr. Biden finally approved the Willow project in Alaska last month, though that won’t help in the near term. Mr. Biden tried to reduce prices by tapping the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but he doesn’t have too many political tricks left.
Regarding oil prices, Mr. Biden and his party are now hostage to fortune as an election year approaches. A global recession would reduce demand and prices, but that has its own political risks. But if demand and prices surge, consumers paying more to fill up the SUV or truck won’t be happy.
As it happens, House Republicans are offering Democrats a lifeline in the form of H.R.1, the energy bill they passed last week. Mr. Biden is promising a veto, and Democrats may want to filibuster in the Senate. But the better part of political prudence would be to work out a Senate compromise. It’s unwise to count on Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.
***********************
2. Nigel Lawson’s Lesson for Today’s Pessimists
As Margaret Thatcher’s wing man, he helped revive Britain’s economy.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, April 4, 2023
https://www.wsj.com/articles/nigel-lawson-dies-britain-margaret-thatcher-economy-conservatives-add0e4fa?mod=hp_opin_pos_4#cxrecs_s
TWTW Summary: The editorial states:
It’s easy to despair at the inflation and economic malaise afflicting the West these days, but our problems are solvable, as they were a half century ago. One of those crucial problem solvers was British politician Nigel Lawson, who died this week at age 91.
Born in North London in 1932, Lawson began his career as a financial journalist before entering politics in the 1970s. That decade was even more miserable in the United Kingdom than it was in the U.S. By the time Margaret Thatcher led the Tories into office in May 1979, inflation was raging and the country had been wracked by strikes in its ‘winter of discontent’ in 1978-1979. Lawson entered Thatcher’s administration in a junior role and was appointed Energy Secretary in 1981.
He made his historic mark as Chancellor of the Exchequer starting in 1983. He’s best known for his tax reforms, which reduced the top personal income-tax rate to 40% from 60% and brought the top corporate rate to 35% from a 1970s high of 52%. He also was a steward of the Thatcher administration’s privatizations of large state-owned firms and the ‘Big Bang’ financial reforms that would transform London into a global financial center.
The central insight was that by freeing entrepreneurship from regulatory shackles and then allowing entrepreneurs to keep more of the fruits of their labors, governments could boost prosperity. It worked, and the mid-1980s became a boom era for Britain.
Critics blamed Lawson’s tax policies for stoking another bout of inflation in the late 1980s. Conservatives, including Thatcher, criticized him for supporting a policy of stabilizing the pound’s exchange rate with other European currencies. That disagreement led him to leave her cabinet in 1989, and the exchange-rate strategy fell apart when Britain belatedly joined a formal exchange bloc with Europe in 1990 only to tumble out two years later.
Those errors weren’t Lawson’s. Despite the enormous progress of the Thatcher years, Britain in the late 1980s was (and still is) a more heavily regulated, higher-tax economy than the U.S. The real lesson is that the more entrenched socialism becomes, the more painful it is to dislodge. Britain continues to pay the price for its many post-World War II mistakes with lower investment, lower productivity growth and chronically higher inflation than elsewhere. Lawson tried his best to fix it.
In his later years, Lawson made another contribution by injecting much-needed common sense into debates over climate policy by appealing to facts and reason. His message throughout his career was that conservatives should focus on prosperity and resist the distraction of trendy theories. It’s a good lesson for today’s conservative pessimists.
