The Week That Was: 2023-05-13 (May 13, 2023)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “Without data, you’re just another person with an opinion.” – W. Edwards Deming [H/t Ron Clutz]
Number of the Week: 6% per degree Celsius.
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: Following are some of the topics discussed below. Using the HITRAN spectroscopy database William van Wijngaarden and William Happer have presented outstanding calculations of the temperature influence of adding specific greenhouse gases to the atmosphere. The database is derived from decades of laboratory experiments modified by over 40 years of weather balloon data on temperature, pressure, and relative humidity. It is the best database for understanding the greenhouse effect existing. As a professor at the York University in Toronto, Canada, van Wijngaarden posted a paper “Impact of Changing Greenhouse Gas Concentrations on Ontario’s Climate.” This paper focuses on the greenhouse effect as separate from other causes of climate change such as natural variation and change in land use. Similar calculations can be made for any jurisdiction.
In discussion of the greenhouse effect and radiative transfers, questions have arisen regarding the nature of a photon, conservation of energy and similar issues. It is useful to remember Atomic, Molecular, and Optical physics involves shifting from traditional physics to quantum mechanics. A few of the “shocking” changes are discussed.
As articulated previously by William Happer and Richard Lindzen, among others, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) distorts the physical science regarding climate, particularly attributing natural variation to human emitted greenhouse gases. As additional reports are developed from the core, scientific report, the distortions increase. Particularly outrageous is the claim in the Summary for Policymakers that climate has been stable for almost 2000 years until about 1850 when human civilization began on a large-scale replacing wood with coal as a major source of heat needed for industrialization. On May 9, the independent, international group founded in 2019 by emeritus professor of geophysics Guus Berkhout and science journalist Marcel Crok, Climate Intelligence (CLINTEL) released a 180-page report detailing deficiencies in the UN IPCC “science.” Already, several good summaries of the report have appeared. TWTW will discuss the one by Judith Curry.
Christopher Monckton of Brenchley has a post in American Thinker stating, “3 Damning Equations to Defeat Global Warming Zealots.” It highlights significant deficiencies in the IPCC reports that are continued by its followers including the US National Science Foundation.
Australian Jennifer Marohasy continues her efforts to expose huge deficiencies in temperature reports by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM), deficiencies which the Australian government ignores or supports, regardless of political party. The Australian press is complicit in this cover-up.
Former NASA scientist Roy Spencer reports that Americans are voting for warmer weather with their feet, particularly retirees. They continue to move south, despite claims by Washington that warmer weather is causing a climate crisis or emergency.
The EPA and other US government agencies continue in their false claims in an effort to destroy the US oil, gas, and related industries, including transportation. “Build back better” has become a slogan for “to save the world, it will be necessary to destroy civilization.”
The group headed by Canadian John Robson posted a video describing a new form of colonialism – Eco-Colonialism. Though not violent or physically abusive as imperial colonialism, it can be economically destructive to populations in subject countries.
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Insignificant: Atomic, Molecular, and Optical (AMO) physicists William A. van Wijngaarden and William Happer have produced significant work on greenhouse gases such as “Atmosphere and Greenhouse Gas Primer,” “Relative Potency of Greenhouse Molecules,” and with C. A. de Lange and J. D. Ferguson, “Nitrous Oxide and Climate.” On May 10, Van Wijngaarden posted a paper describing how trivial the influence the emissions of the Province of Ontario, Canada, are. Similar analyses can be made for other political jurisdictions. The abstract of the paper states: [Boldface added]
“The effect of changing greenhouse gas concentrations, most notably carbon dioxide, CO2, on climate was examined. In particular, calculations of climate sensitivity, the warming of the Earth due to a doubling of atmospheric carbon dioxide, are discussed. Greenhouse gas concentrations, as determined from air bubbles trapped in ice as well as at Mauna Loa, Hawaii are presented. The greenhouse gas amounts generated by Canada and Ontario were used to estimate their respective contributions to global warming. Ontario was responsible for only 0.35% of the world’s CO2 emissions in 2019 and this amount was 20% lower than in 2005. The predictions of Global Climate Models (GCMs) regarding temperature, polar ice caps, oceans, precipitation, and extreme events were compared to observations. Records since 1880 show an overall warming of about 1 ° However, the GCMs do not account for observed decadal temperature fluctuations and consistently overestimate the warming. Ontario’s contribution to global warming is only 9.2 x 10-5 °C /year using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) recommended climate sensitivity value. Measurements of the polar ice caps reveal a decrease in the minimum September Arctic sea ice extent during 1979-2022 but the trend levelled off after 2007, while the average Antarctic sea ice extent slightly increased. Sea level increased slightly throughout the 20th century. Ontario’s contribution to anthropogenic sea level rise is about 0.005 mm/year. Sea level along Ontario’s Hudson Bay coast is decreasing due to isostatic rebound of the land following the last Ice Age. The change to ocean acidity due to CO2 absorption from the atmosphere is negligible compared to that due to tides, ocean depth and seasonal effects. Ontario’s contribution to ocean acidification is estimated to be 6 x 10-6 pH /year. No changes in precipitation in North America over the 19th and 20th centuries, nor in Toronto since 1843, were found. The Great Lake levels are remarkably constant over the past century showing no evidence of a change in the incidence of flooding. No evidence was found that the frequency of extreme events such as hurricanes or tornadoes increased during recent decades. The number of forest fires in Canada and Ontario decreased during 1990 to 2020.”
Van Wijngaarden gives a careful presentation on major issues such as Climate, including the Greenhouse Effect, Climate Sensitivity, Water Feedback, Global Warming due to Other Greenhouse Gases such as CH4 and N2O, Global Climate Models, Beneficial Impacts of Carbon Dioxide, and Are Greenhouse Gas Concentrations Increasing? Of particular note is Water Feedback.
According to ensemble climate modeling pioneer, Tim Palmer in The Primacy of Doubt, in general, global climate models calculate that a warming of about 1°C from CO2 will cause an increase in water vapor doubling the CO2 warming and together they will cause a melting of the Arctic resulting in another 0.5°C warming totaling a 2.5°C increase. Van Wijngaarden writes:
“A warming of only 1 °C is not a threat to the planet. However, the maximum amount of water vapor that can be contained in a given volume of air increases at a rate of 6% per degree Celsius. Therefore, the water vapor concentration would go up in a warming atmosphere if the relative humidity remained unchanged. This so-called water feedback effect would amplify the small warming due to increasing carbon dioxide. Observations are inconclusive that water vapor has increased at the maximum theoretical rate. A study that examined 1/4 billion hourly values of temperature and relative humidity at 309 stations located throughout North America during 1948-2010 found relative humidity decreased at many inland stations.
A more sophisticated analysis of surface warming must take into account that the troposphere warms more than the higher atmosphere. S. Manabe, who received the Nobel prize in 2021, originally estimated a climate sensitivity of 1.4 C for the case of constant water vapor concentration. This has been independently confirmed by several subsequent groups including our own calculations. The climate sensitivity increases to about 2.3 C if one considers maximum possible water feedback such that relative humidity remains constant.” [Citations omitted; boldface added.]
Van Wijngaarden analyzes numerous other issues such as Comparison of Observations to Global Climate Model Predictions, especially atmospheric temperature trends where the greenhouse effect occurs, Oceans, sea level rise, Extreme Weather Events, etc. Van Wijngaarden finds Ontario’s contribution to climate change trivial and concludes:
“In conclusion, the author wishes to emphasize that application of well tested physics shows an increase of greenhouse gases will cause some global warming. However, contrary to the United Nations claim, there will not be catastrophic climate change within 10 years, nor should one overlook the beneficial aspects of increased carbon dioxide for promoting plant growth. The impact of Ontario’s anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases on global climate is minuscule.”
See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Photons and Other Strange Concepts: Physics in the late 19th and early 20th centuries underwent a major upheaval in thinking about electromagnetic radiation (electromagnetic energy, light) and matter – quantum mechanics. The opening paragraphs of the entry on quantum mechanics in Britannica states: [Boldface added]
Quantum mechanics, science dealing with the behavior of matter and light on the atomic and subatomic scale. It attempts to describe and account for the properties of molecules and atoms and their constituents—electrons, protons, neutrons, and other more esoteric particles such as quarks and gluons. These properties include the interactions of the particles with one another and with electromagnetic radiation (i.e., light, X-rays, and gamma rays).
“The behavior of matter and radiation on the atomic scale often seems peculiar, and the consequences of quantum theory are accordingly difficult to understand and to believe. Its concepts frequently conflict with common-sense notions derived from observations of the everyday world. There is no reason, however, why the behavior of the atomic world should conform to that of the familiar, large-scale world. It is important to realize that quantum mechanics is a branch of physics, and that the business of physics is to describe and account for the way the world—on both the large and the small scale—actually is and not how one imagines it or would like it to be.
“The study of quantum mechanics is rewarding for several reasons. First, it illustrates the essential methodology of physics. Second, it has been enormously successful in giving correct results in practically every situation to which it has been applied. There is, however, an intriguing paradox [seemingly contradictory or opposed to common sense statement and yet perhaps true]. In spite of the overwhelming practical success of quantum mechanics, the foundations of the subject contain unresolved problems—in particular, problems concerning the nature of measurement. An essential feature of quantum mechanics is that it is generally impossible, even in principle, to measure a system without disturbing it; the detailed nature of this disturbance and the exact point at which it occurs are obscure and controversial. Thus, quantum mechanics attracted some of the ablest scientists of the 20th century, and they erected what is perhaps the finest intellectual edifice of the period.”
The papers by William van Wijngaarden and William Happer and the essays on Basic Climate Physics by AMO physicist Howard Hayden on the SEPP website discuss the greenhouse effect, which requires a shift from traditional physics to quantum mechanics. This shift may confuse some readers of TWTW. In discussing the Early developments of quantum mechanics, the Britannica entry states:
“Planck’s radiation law
“By the end of the 19th century, physicists almost universally accepted the wave theory of light. However, though the ideas of classical physics explain interference and diffraction phenomena relating to the propagation of light, they do not account for the absorption and emission of light. All bodies radiate electromagnetic energy as heat; in fact, a body emits radiation at all wavelengths. The energy radiated at different wavelengths is a maximum at a wavelength that depends on the temperature of the body, the hotter the body, the shorter the wavelength for maximum radiation. Attempts to calculate the energy distribution for the radiation from a blackbody using classical ideas were unsuccessful. (A blackbody is a hypothetical ideal body or surface that absorbs and remits all radiant energy falling on it.) One formula, proposed by Wilhelm Wien of Germany, did not agree with observations at long wavelengths, and another, proposed by Lord Rayleigh (John William Strutt) of England, disagreed with those at short wavelengths.
“In 1900 the German theoretical physicist Max Planck made a bold suggestion. He assumed that the radiation energy is emitted, not continuously, but rather in discrete packets called quanta. The energy E of the quantum is related to the frequency ν by E = hν. The quantity h, now known as Planck’s constant, is a universal constant with the approximate value of 6.62607 × 10−34 joule second. Planck showed that the calculated energy spectrum then agreed with observation over the entire wavelength range.”
In brief many physicists initially disagreed with quantum mechanics, but it worked. In the essays by van Wijngaarden and Happer as well as Hayden’s Basic Climate Physics, the greenhouse effect is the difference between the Planck curve for blackbody radiation at a particular temperature in absolute terms. (Kelvin) and the jagged Schwarzschild line that can only be calculated from measured optical properties of water vapor, carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas molecules in the atmosphere. [See Figures 3 and 4 in the van Wijngaarden paper discussed above.]
In quantum mechanics the concept of a photon or a minute energy packet of electromagnetic radiation is used. These concepts are ideas of how energy is transferred, but it does not mean that photons exist in the traditional sense. That is, when a photon is absorbed, it gives its energy to the molecule, but it ceases to exist.
In summary, ensembles of weather models, global climate models, cannot uniquely capture the greenhouse effect. The models do not calculate a Schwarzschild line from measured optical properties of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. Also, they falsely attribute temperature changes from other human activity and natural effects to the greenhouse effect. In the paper discussed above van Wijngaarden demonstrates how poorly the global climate models perform when tested against actual atmospheric temperature trends, for example in Figure 15: “Comparison of Climate Model Simulated and Observed Temperatures at altitude of 10 – 13 km.”
See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy, https://www.britannica.com/science/quantum-mechanics-physics, and http://www.sepp.org/science_papers.cfm?whichyear=2022 for Basic Climate Physics.
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Deficiencies in UN IPCC Reports: The independent group, Climate Intelligence (CLINTEL), detailed the deficiencies in the UN IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6, 2021, 2022 and 2023). Judith Curry gives an excellent summary of the CLINTEL report. The report brings up the revival of the 2000-year hockey stick that has been the subject of a number of posts by Steve McIntyre and discussed in previous issues of TWTW. Quoted by Curry the report concludes its discussion of the hockey stick with:
“’Conclusion: The resurrected hockey stick of AR6 shows how vulnerable the IPCC process is to scientific bias. Cherry picking, misuse of the peer review process, lack of transparency, and likely political interference have led to a gross misrepresentation of the pre-industrial temperature evolution.’”
To TWTW, the insertion of the new hockey-stick in the Summary for Policymakers of AR6 destroys any shred of scientific integrity in the entire IPCC process. It demonstrates the UN IPCC’s contempt for physical science in its pursuit of political influence. Curry is more kind, she concludes: [Boldface added]
“The CLINTEL Report provides a much-needed evaluation and intellectual counterpoint to the IPCC AR6.
“There is a lot of good material in the AR6 WG1 [Working Group 1] Report, but there is also a lot of cherry picking and flat-out errors in the Report (the AR6 WG2 Report is just flat out bad). With any kind of serious review, or if the author teams have been sufficiently diverse, we would not see so many of these kinds of errors. Unfortunately, the IPCC defines “diversity” in terms of gender, race and developed versus underdeveloped countries; actual diversity of thought and perspective is dismissed in favor of promoting the politically mandated narrative from the UN.
“The consensus disease that that was caught by the IPCC following publication of the First Assessment Report in 1990, combined with pressures from policy makers, is resulting in documents that don’t reflect the broad disagreement and uncertainties on these complex topics. The IPCC’s mandated narrative has become very stale. Worse yet, it is becoming increasingly irrelevant to policy making by continuing to focus on extreme emissions scenarios and the embarrassing cherry picking that is required to support the “climate crisis” narrative that is so beloved by UN officials.
“In any event, UN-driven climate policy has moved well past any moorings in climate science, even the relatively alarming version reported by the IPCC. The insane policies and deadlines tied to greenhouse gas emissions are simply at odds with the reality of our understanding of climate change and the uncertainties, and with broader considerations of human well-being.
See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/, and
https://climateaudit.org/2021/11/01/a-theory-of-the-hack/ for PAGES 2k (PAst Global ChangES with 2k referring to the past two thousand years).
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Using Wrong Scales: Christopher Monckton of Brenchleyhas a post in American Thinker pointing out a few errors in the reports of the UN IPCC and its followers. One error is using the wrong scales. For calculating the greenhouse effect Kelvin is necessary, not degrees Celsius. Using the wrong scale results in wrong conclusions. A second error is using nameplate capacity as an estimate for generation capacity of wind and solar. These methods of generation produce well less than 50% of the time, and even if the capacities are doubled, they still fail.
The third error is not properly calculating the warming prevented by spending hundreds of billions if not trillions of US dollars on alternative sources of electricity. It is miniscule. With the emissions of China far exceeding the emissions of Europe and North America, the government policies in these continents are set by politicians oblivious to the real world. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Killing Dissent: Jennifer Marohasy continues to expose the unsavory practices of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. While the Australian press ignores the loss of scientific integrity by the Bureau:
“Meanwhile the Bureau has been working towards faster and faster resistance probes, designed to be ever thinner and thinner, thus even more responsive to fluctuations in air temperature – and political pressures for ever more hot days. Without the inertia of market forces, or a mercury thermometer, which will take a minute or two to adjust to a change in air temperature depending on the wind speed, the probes can record higher daily temperatures for the same weather.”
See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy and Lowering Standards.
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Voting With Their Feet: Using two scales one for average temperatures weighted by area and the second for temperatures weighted by population, Roy Spencer shows that, in general, Americans are moving to warmer areas of the country. Spencer concludes:
“Some might claim that the migration to states with warmer temperatures has more to do with economic opportunity than with temperature. But who creates economic opportunity? People. And where do people choose to live? Where the weather is warmer.
“There’s a reason why people are flocking to Texas and Florida, and not to the Dakotas or Maine. Ultimately, it’s due to the climate. So, while some of us like to think we are Saving the Earth by buying a Tesla, our migration habits are telling a different story.”
See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Eco-Colonialism: The word “colonialism” describes a movement from the 1400s to the mid-20th century in which much of Africa, Asia, and the Americas came under the control of powerful empires centered in Europe, especially the British Empire on which, famously, “the sun never set”. And while some former colonies, like the U.S., Canada, and Australia, developed into modern, independent, and prosperous nations, many others, especially in Africa and South Asia, have been mired in poverty since the end of the colonial period. This pattern has led many historians to view colonialism, aka “imperialism”, as a disaster for most of the world and an indictment of the inherently domineering, exploitative nature of Western civilization.
A decade ago, the World Bank and other international entities designed to promote prosperity in poor countries lost their way and refused to fund needed projects for reasons based on false predictions. A solid video, John Robson discusses these and other actions in the context of Eco-Colonialism. See link under Questioning Green Elsewhere.
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Failure in Washington: As shown above, Federal agencies and other followers of the UN IPCC do not understand the physics of the greenhouse effect. EPA’s declaration that carbon dioxide (CO2) is a pollutant is fiction. The EPA and other agencies are diligently forming new regulations to destroy the fossil fuel industry without a suitable replacement. Many of these new regulations rely on health claims that cannot be substantiated by evidence and do not stand up to careful analysis of results. See Article # 1 and links under EPA and other Regulators on the March, Energy Issues – US, and Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
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SEPP’S APRIL FOOLS AWARD – THE JACKSON
SEPP is conducting its annual vote for the recipient of the coveted trophy, The Jackson, a lump of coal. Readers are asked to nominate and vote for who they think is most deserving. Senators Schumer and Manchin won in 2022.
The voting will close on June 30. Please send your nominee and a brief reason why the person is qualified for the honor to Ken@SEPP.org. The awardee will be announced at the annual meeting of the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness on July 7 to 9.
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Number of the Week: 6% per degree Celsius. As stated above by van Wijngaarden, the Global Climate Models assume that water vapor will increase by 6% per degree Celsius for an increase in temperatures, particularly from CO2. One of the issues is that the tropics are not warming significantly, and the tropical atmosphere is saturated. As van Wijngaarden writes:
“A more sophisticated analysis of surface warming must take into account that the troposphere warms more than the higher atmosphere. S. Manabe, who received the Nobel prize in 2021, originally estimated a climate sensitivity of 1.4 C for the case of constant water vapor concentration. This has been independently confirmed by several subsequent groups including our own calculations.”
Censorship
Facebook Censoring The Inconvenient Truth About Antarctic Temperatures
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 7, 2023
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/media-library/pdfs/CCR-IIb/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://store.heartland.org/shop/ccr-ii-fossil-fuels/
Download with no charge:
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
Download with no charge:
https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Global Sea-Level Rise: An Evaluation of the Data
By Craig D. Idso, David Legates, and S. Fred Singer, Heartland Policy Brief, May 20, 2019
Impact of Changing Greenhouse Gas Concentrations on Ontario’s Climate
W. A. van Wijngaarden, Department of Physics and Astronomy, York University, Canada, May 10, 2023
https://wvanwijngaarden.info.yorku.ca/files/2023/05/OntClimate-ArXiv.pdf?x45936
New Analysis Highlights Serious Errors And Bias In Latest IPCC Report
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 11, 2023
Link to press release: Clintel publication: “The Frozen Climate Views of the IPCC”
By Staff, Clintel, May 9, 2023
CLINTEL’s critical evaluation of the IPCC AR6
By Judith Curry, Climate Etc. May 13, 2023
Jokers, Killing Dissent – While calling it Debate
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, May 12, 2023
3 Damning Equations to Defeat Global Warming Zealots
By Christopher Monckton of Brenchley, American Thinker, May 12, 2023
https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2023/05/3_damning_equations_to_defeat_global_warming_zealots.html
Americans Increasingly Choose a Warmer Life
By Roy Spencer, His Blog, May 9, 2023
Defending the Orthodoxy
Experts say, Indian edition
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 10, 2023
“Euronews.green has some advice from rich white people for poor brown people somewhere else, in keeping with our ‘Eco-Colonialism” video. India must not make our mistake and get affordable energy.”
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Increased droughts are disrupting carbon-capturing soil microbes, concerning ecologists
Soil stores more carbon than plants and the atmosphere combined
Press Release, NSF, May 9, 2023
https://new.nsf.gov/news/increased-droughts-are-disrupting-carbon-capturing?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery
Link to paper: Microbial drought resistance may destabilize soil carbon
By Steven D. Allison, Cell, Apr 12, 2023
https://www.cell.com/trends/microbiology/fulltext/S0966-842X(23)00078-1
[SEPP Comment: Abstract begins with false assumption: Droughts are becoming more frequent and intense with climate change.]
Reasoning about Climate Change
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, May 6, 2023
Link to paper: Reasoning about climate change
By Bence Bago, et al. PNAS, May 2, 2023
https://academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/article/2/5/pgad100/7147350?login=false
[SEPP Comment: In their reasoning, the PNAS authors do not understand the the issues are based on physical evidence, not their theories of motivated reasoning.]
Water warming study shows unexpected impact on fish size
By eLife, Phys.org, May 9, 2023 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://phys.org/news/2023-05-unexpected-impact-fish-size.html
Link to paper: Larger but younger fish when growth outpaces mortality in heated ecosystem
By, Max Lindmark, Malin Karlsson, Anna Gårdmark, eLife, May 9, 2023
https://elifesciences.org/articles/82996
From the abstract: “Here, we use a two–decade long time series of biological samples from a unique enclosed bay heated by cooling water from a nearby nuclear power plant to become 5–10 °C warmer than its reference area.
[SEPP Comment: Far faster warming than that occurring in the atmosphere of 0.28°C in two-decades covered in the study.]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Objection! Warming Alarm is Hearsay, Lacking Evidence.
By Ron Clutz, Science Matters, May 12, 2023
New Study: Warmer Temperatures Associated With A Reduction In Storms, High Winds
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, May 11, 2023
Link to paper: A Cloud-Controlling Factor Perspective on the Hemispheric Asymmetry of Extratropical Cloud Albedo
By Joaquín E. Blanco, et al. Journal of Climate, Mar 15, 2023
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/36/6/JCLI-D-22-0410.1.xml
New Study: 90% Of Recent Warming Is From Shortwave Cloud Forcing…Humans Contributed 0.03°C
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, May 8, 2023
Link to latest paper: No Reliable Studies of Climate Change Without Henry’s Law and a New Thermometer for Global Climate
By Jyrki Kauppinen and Pekka Malmi, Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Turku, 2023
Fed’s Waller: Climate Change Not a ‘Serious Risk’
Editorial, Newsmax, May 11, 2023 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://www.newsmax.com/finance/streettalk/christopher-waller-federal-reserve-financial-system/2023/05/11/id/1119429/?ns_mail_uid=9af78cd4-7188-4875-ba2c-e930f35496ab&ns_mail_job=DM472468_05112023&s=acs&dkt_nbr=010502m1pvtf
“Waller argued they won’t, noting that banks are already adept at hedging against weather-related losses, while more slow-moving changes – to coastal residential patterns as sea levels rise, for example – were analogous to population losses seen over the decades in cities like Detroit, locally important, but not systematically so.”
The Coronation & The Guardian, Temperatures, Misinformation (Part 2)
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, May 7, 2023
An easy guide to rational energy policies
By Ronald Stein, CFACT, May 9th, 2023
https://www.cfact.org/2023/05/09/an-easy-guide-to-rational-energy-policies/
Doodling with data on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions – not so much impact on climate, just background notes
By Peter Halligan, His Blog, May 8, 2023 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://peterhalligan.substack.com/p/doodling-with-data-on-carbon-dioxide
Energy and Environmental Review: May 8, 2023
By John Droz, Jr., Master Resource, May 8, 2023
Change in US Administrations
Corruption Of President Biden — And Of The Justice Department, And Of The Media
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, May 12, 2023
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2023-5-12-corruption-of-president-biden-and-of-the-justice-department-and-of-the-media
Problems in the Orthodoxy
Thailand chokes on pollution but greens struggle to be heard in election
By Rose Troup-Buchanan, Bangkok (AFP) May 8, 2023
https://www.terradaily.com/reports/Thailand_chokes_on_pollution_but_greens_struggle_to_be_heard_in_election_999.html
“”This is a real public health crisis,” said CAN’s Weenarin Lulitanonda, noting that about two million people have needed hospital treatment this year because of air pollution.”
[SEPP Comment: Stubble burning in Thailand appears to be the main cause. The 2022 average PM2.5 concentration in Thailand: 3.6 times the WHO annual air quality guideline value according to IQ Air. Where are the deaths?]
https://www.iqair.com/th-en/thailand
IQ Air provides rankings of cities around the world. Number 1 is Delhi, India with a number of 186. The worse city in the US was Los Angeles #41 (with a number of 57)
https://www.iqair.com/th-en/world-air-quality-ranking
Seeking a Common Ground
How Science Should be Done
By Rafe Champion, Quadrant, May 7, 2023
Review of: The Scientific Method: A Guide to Finding Useful Knowledge
By J. Scott Armstrong & Kesten C. Green, Cambridge University Press, 2022
Science, Policy, and Evidence
UK Government is playing into Putin’s hands
By Staff, Net Zero Watch, May 9, 2023
“The government are sacrificing everything on the altar of their Net Zero dogma: economic security and national security just don’t seem to matter to them any longer.” — Andrew Montford
Measurement Issues — Surface
NASA Data: Southern Hemisphere Cooled Over Past Decade…Northern Hemisphere No Rise!
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, May 10, 2023
Record Temperature Set Next To The Tarmac At Cordoba Airport
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 9, 2023
“Clearly it is a totally inappropriate place to measure temperatures for climate purposes.”
Changing Weather
US Has Had An “Historic Winter” As “All Western States Have Seen Record Snowfall”
By Christian Freuer, EIKE, (Translated, edited by P. Gosselin), Via No Tricks Zone, May 9, 2023
Excessive rainfall in Texas next several days with a focus on the Rio Grande
By Meteorologist Paul Dorian, WUWT, May 12, 2023
The Upcoming Spring “Heatwave”
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, May 9, 2023
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2023/05/the-upcoming-spring-heatwave.html
“Just to give you some perspective, below is a plot of the warmest temperature each year in Seattle for the period 5-25 May. Most but not all years have at least one May day above 80F, with a number of years seeing temperatures surge about 85F. Interestingly, there is no upward trend in warm days over the period of record.” [From 1950 to 2022]
Extreme Weather in 1903
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 6, 2023
May 11, 1953, Tornado Outbreak
By Tony Heller, His Blog, May 11, 2023
Coronation Weather 1953
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 7, 2023
May 11, 1970, Tornado Outbreak
By Tony Heller, His Blog, May 12, 2023
Changing Seas
Multi-decadal modes of Pacific sea surface temperature variability
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 10, 2023
From the CO2Science Science Archive:
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
#CoolClimateData: Sea ice coverage at Climate4You.com
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 10, 2023
“Provided it’s of imminent disaster, no one will fact check you. Except us.”
Similar but different: Antarctic and Arctic sea ice and their responses to climate change
By Staff Writers, Beijing, China (SPX) May 07, 2023
https://www.terradaily.com/reports/Similar_but_different_Antarctic_and_Arctic_sea_ice_and_their_responses_to_climate_change_999.html
Link to paper: Why Does Arctic Sea Ice Respond More Evidently than Antarctic Sea Ice to Climate Change?
By Mohammed Shokr, et al. Air-Land-Atmosphere Research, Mar 6, 2023
https://spj.science.org/doi/10.34133/olar.0006
From the Abstract: “Researchers should not apply scenarios regarding the impacts of climate change on Arctic sea ice (i.e., retreat) to Antarctic sea ice. Instead of asking why Antarctic sea ice has not responded to climate change in the same way as Arctic ice, a more reasonable question could be why Arctic ice changes are yielding an annual cycle that resembles that of Antarctic ice.”
[SEPP Comment: What? How about the Arctic and Antarctic are subject to totally different ocean currents. That is more important than CO2 increase.]
Expansion Of Arctic Sea Ice
By Tony Heller, His Blog, May 12, 2023
“In 1922 there was no sea ice around Spitzbergen [Svalbard], but this year there is a lot of ice.”
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Entire Global Food Supply at Risk From Disastrous Response to So-Called ‘Nitrogen Crisis’
By Chris Morrison, The Daily Sceptic, May 11, 2023
[SEPP Comment: The mindless fear that increasing CO2 will harm agriculture by increasing temperatures is leading to mindless policies of restricting nitrogen fertilizer which increases another greenhouse gas with a trivial influence on atmospheric temperatures.]
Lowering Standards
Oxford University’s Our World in Data falls for renewables industry spin
Press Release, Net Zero Watch, May 11, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Unfortunate news.]
Fake scientific papers are alarmingly common
But new tools show promise in tackling growing symptom of academia’s “publish or perish” culture
By Jeffrey Brainard, AAAS Science, May 9, 2023 [H/t Bernie Kepshie]
https://www.science.org/content/article/fake-scientific-papers-are-alarmingly-common
[SEPP Comment: Published by a leader in the cause of false global warming science!]
Forecasters: Strong El Nino may be on the horizon
By Don Jenkins, Capital Press (Oregon), May 11, 2023 [H/t Jim Buell)
https://www.capitalpress.com/ag_sectors/water/forecasters-strong-el-nino-may-be-on-the-horizon/article_13215d0a-f043-11ed-9eb0-0f5c70103ed4.html
“The National Weather Service placed a bet Thursday that a strong El Nino will dominate the weather next winter for the first time in eight years.
“The monthly outlook by the agency’s Climate Prediction Center firms up expectations for the first strong winter El Nino since 2015-16.” [Boldface added]
[SEPP Comment: According to the National Weather Service seasonal weather prediction is now climate prediction?]
Jokers, and Temperature as Radio Chatter
By Jennifer Marohasy, Her Blog, May 11, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
The Conversation: “A Single [Climate] Radical Gets More Media Coverage Than Thousands of Marchers”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, May 6, 2023
[SEPP Comment: To “climate experts” media coverage trumps physical evidence?]
BBC: 44C / 111F in Vietnam is a Sign of the Climate Change End Times
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, May 8, 2023
Deadly heat waves threaten older people as summer nears
By Anita Snow, AP, April 30, 2023 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://apnews.com/article/climate-aging-heat-deaths-f95f3567fe9fa97c03c59bdfe839e202
[SEPP Comment: Why do retirees move to warmer climates?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Six things to know about Biden’s proposed crackdown on power plant emissions
By Rachel Franzin, The Hill, May 11, 2023
Six things to know about Biden’s proposed crackdown on power plant emissions
“If the final rule looks like this and if industry really cannot punch holes into EPA’s empirical observations, it would be very hard to write an opinion striking this down,” he added. [William Buzbee, a law professor at Georgetown University boldface added]
[SEPP Comment: Professor, what empirical observations?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
World near positive ‘tipping point’ on climate solutions: expert
By Marlowe Hood, Paris (AFP), May 10, 2023
https://www.energy-daily.com/reports/World_near_positive_tipping_point_on_climate_solutions_expert_999.html
“The organization Project Drawdown has detailed the potential, feasibility and cost of nearly a hundred climate solutions since it was set up in 2017.
“Executive director Jonathan Foley, a leading climate scientist, spoke to AFP about how to assess and prioritize the actions needed to keep Earth livable,”
Buckle Up: These US regions are projected to face the worst of climate change
By Christopher Harress, The Oregonian, May 10, 2023 [H/t Steve Care]
https://www.oregonlive.com/reckon/2023/05/flooding-hurricanes-and-wildfires-americas-increasing-climate-catastrophes-mean-few-places-are-safe.html
“Farmland in the Tulare Lake Basin is submerged in water in Corcoran, Calif., Thursday, April 20, 2023, after more than a dozen atmospheric rivers dumped record-setting rain and snowfall. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)AP”
[SEPP Comment: The Tulare Lake Basin never had water in it before?]
Claim: Turbulence is Getting Worse due to Climate Change
By Robert Vislocky, WUWT, May 7, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Do a Poll?
Thanks, Guardian, For Reporting that Europeans Are Also Unwilling to Make Huge Lifestyle Changes to Stop Climate Change
By Linnea Lueken, Climate Realism, May 3, 2023
Communicating Better to the Public – Go Personal.
Big Oil Recycles Tactics Against Biden’s EV Agenda
By Paul Alexander, Real Clear Energy, May 10, 2023
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/05/10/big_oil_recycles_tactics_against_bidens_ev_agenda_898655.html
“In the wide-ranging debt ceiling bill now championed by Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy, Republicans attempt to undercut a signature accomplishment of President Joseph Biden: his clean energy portfolio. They propose doing away with billions of dollars of tax credits meant to bolster the popularity of the electric vehicle (EV).”
[SEPP Comment: Boldface added, Squandering billions for unreliable energy is the path to prosperity and low inflation? How about popularity without subsidies?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
A Heatwave In Spain
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 8, 2023
From The Guardian: “Extreme event would have been expected once in 40,000 years before global heating, scientists estimate”
[SEPP Comment: What about the Holocene Climate Optimum?
Communicating Better to the Public – Protest
Climate Extremists Vandalize Historic Roman Monument
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, May 7, 2023
Expanding the Orthodoxy
Germany Opens the Door to High Inflation, with an 80% Green Energy Bill Subsidy Proposal
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, May 8, 2023
9 states, DC and NYC call for federal action on gas stoves
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, May 9, 2023
“The states that supported federal action in this week’s letter were: Delaware, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Rhode Island, Oregon, Vermont and Washington state.”
Questioning European Green
The Price Of Virtue Signalling
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 9, 2023
“Assuming average household electricity consumption of 5000 KWh, it would mean a surcharge of £620 per home, if all their power was green.”
The dirty secret behind premium ‘green’ energy deals
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 12, 2023
“Britain’s biggest energy suppliers are refusing to stop buying controversial certificates that allow them to sell tariffs as ‘100pc green’ when they are not.”
Green apprenticeships celebrated in honor of the Coronation
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 9, 2023
“I’m sure Sustainability Specialists, Corporate Responsibility and Sustainability Practitioners and Forest Craftspersons are just what the UK economy needs!”
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Eco-Colonialism: The Green Man’s Burden
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 2, 2023
The Auto Industry In Jonestown
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, May 5, 2023
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2023-5-5-the-auto-industry-in-jonestown
The fake “hybrid warfare” of the Censorship Industrial Complex
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, May 12, 2023
Funding Issues
It’s Time to Take the Unnecessary Politics Out of ESG and Retirement Savings
Retirement investments should be held to the highest standard
By Robert Eccles & Timothy Doyle, Real Clear Energy, May 09, 2023
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/05/09/its_time_to_take_the_unnecessary_politics_out_of_esg_and_retirement_savings_898242.html
“The DOL [Department of Labor], under ERISA (Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974), regulates private retirement plans. ERISA covers roughly $12 trillion in retirement savings for 150 million Americans.”
“If the purpose of ERISA is to protect retirement savings, both sides of the aisle should focus on the duties of loyalty and prudence owed to beneficiaries and plan participants, and less on an Administration’s policy agenda. Ironically, this is what ERISA was originally intended to protect against.”
It’s War: 19 US States fight back against the Woke Banker Cartel
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, May 6, 2023
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Tidbits
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 10, 2023
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
Biden administration allocating $830 million for energy efficiency in low-income housing
By Jared Gans, The Hill, May 11, 2023
U.S. Climate Policy Must Support Low-Carbon Liquid Transportation Fuels
By Michael J. Roman, Real Clear Energy, May 10, 2023
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/05/10/us_climate_policy_must_support_low-carbon_liquid_transportation_fuels_898447.html
[SEPP Comment: More subsidies needed?]
EPA and other Regulators on the March
EPA proposes strict greenhouse gas emissions cuts for power plants
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, May 11, 2023
Right, Washington Times, EPA’s Appliance Regulations Considerably ‘Lower Performance’
By H. Sterling Burnett, Climate Realism, May 9, 2023
Energy Issues – Non-US
Beatrice’s Missing Output–The Plot Thicken
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 7, 2023
“In short then, Beatrice has not only received £33 million from constraint payments, it appears to have sold all of that output anyway. Worse still, the price they received from that sale was higher than their strike price.
“The mystery now is just where that missing electricity went.”
[Beatrice Offshore Windfarm Limited]
Renewable energy projects worth billions stuck on hold
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 12, 2023
“Maybe if all of these renewable schemes had to pay the cost themselves, they might get the work done quicker.”
Energy Issues – Australia
Six gigawatts of total wind generation collapsed in 16 hours last week, and nobody cared
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, May 8, 2023
“As TonyfromOz points out, this is like a whole state fleet of coal plants failing at once.”
Dig and Drill, Baby, Dig and Drill
By Peter Smith, Quadrant, May 7, 2023
Hydrogen Fraud? The Newest Twist in Australia’s Renewable Energy Insanity
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, May 10, 2023
An Oil Expert Explains U.S. Energy Independence To TikTok
By Robert Rapier, Oil Price.com, May 08, 2023
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/An-Oil-Expert-Explains-US-Energy-Independence-To-TikTok.html
FERC commissioners tell senators of major grid reliability challenges, with some blaming markets
Power plants are retiring faster than they’re being replaced, according to FERC Commissioner Mark Christie. “The arithmetic doesn’t work,” he said Thursday.
By Ethan Howland, Utility Dive, May 5, 2023 [H/t WUWT]
https://www.utilitydive.com/news/ferc-grid-reliability-senate-energy-hearing/649523/
“The U.S. grid faces major reliability challenges, according to members of the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission who used the word 34 times in their prepared testimony Thursday at a Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee hearing.”
[SEPP Comment: Also reported are typical green excuses such as traditional sources failed during extreme winter events. However, when natural gas power is forced to rely on the grid and wind and solar are increased, natural gas power becomes unreliable when it was reliable before.]
Net Zero grid batteries alone would bankrupt America
By Craig Rucker, American Thinker, May 9, 2023
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2023/05/net_zero_grid_batteries_alone_would_bankrupt_america_.html?mc_cid=9db4ef7453&mc_eid=ffd82d3222
New York Gas Stove Ban – Beginning of the End or End of the Beginning?
By Roger Caiazza, WUWT, May 6, 2023
“Advocates refuse to acknowledge the possibility that fossil fuel interests could align with the interests of the majority of New Yorkers who appreciate and value the resiliency and affordability of our existing fossil-fueled infrastructure. The proposed wholesale shift to unwanted technology without proper accounting of costs will be under intense scrutiny this year. I do not see how the Hochul Administration can avoid an open debate about the implications of the Climate Act for all New Yorkers.”
Should South Carolina Join PJM’s Flailing Electrical Grid?
By Gary Meltz, Real Clear Energy, May 11, 2023
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2023/05/11/should_south_carolina_join_pjms_flailing_electrical_grid_898660.html
Community Choice Aggregation
By Kip Hansen, WUWT, May 11, 2023
“My local town has just chosen, for us, the residents of the town, to pay more for ‘renewable’ energy.”
[SEPP Comment: In “sunny” New York state?]
Oil and Natural Gas – the Future or the Past?
Just How Important Is The U.S. Shale Industry?
By Irina Slav, Oil Price.com, May 07, 2023
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-General/Just-How-Important-Is-The-US-Shale-Industry.html
“Fracking, which not everyone in the oil and gas industry likes, by the way, because it was used as a euphemism for a curse word on Battlestar Galactica, turned the United States into the world’s biggest oil producer and also the world’s biggest gas producer.”
Oil Spills, Gas Leaks & Consequences
Prioritise methane to tackle GHG emissions
News Release, Net Zero Watch, May 10, 2023
“Satellite observations have revealed that two major fossil fuel fields in Turkmenistan are emitting vast quantities of methane – 4.4 million tonnes a year – which because methane is 80 times more potent than carbon dioxide means a global warming effect greater than that of the UK, and most other countries.”
Nuclear Energy and Fears
The last thing we want is a solution
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 10, 2023
“Because currently only 15 percent of our energy comes from nuclear, and we’ve never had an accident. (BTW the professor in question is a climate scientist provided that term encompasses sociologists whose ‘primary interests are environmental, feminist, labor and political issues.’”)
Nuclear regulator OKs New Mexico spent fuel facility opposed by state, federal officials
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, May 9, 2023
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
The wind and solar power myth has finally been exposed
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 12, 2023
“The necessary miracle doesn’t exist”
“’Capacity’ being a largely meaningless figure for a wind or solar plant, about 3000 megawatts (MW) of wind and solar capacity is needed to replace a 1000 MW conventional power station in terms of energy over time: and in fact, as we shall see, the conventional power station or something very like it will still be needed frequently once the wind and solar are online.”
Physics Is Why Renewables Can’t Power Modern Economies
By H. Sterling Burnett, Environment and Climate News, May 12, 2023
Wind and solar power generators wait in yearslong lines to put clean electricity on the grid, then face huge interconnection fees they can’t afford
By Catherine Clifford, CNBC, Apr 6, 2023
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/04/06/outdated-us-energy-grid-tons-of-clean-energy-stuck-waiting-in-line.html
“The proposed rule change would offer incremental improvements, like providing information to developers so they can make more informed siting decisions without flooding the queue with speculative requests and imposing more strict mandates on the regional grid operators to complete studies in a given time period, Rand of Berkeley Lab told CNBC.”
[SEPP Comment: The developers are too ignorant to make prudent business decisions?]
A 10 Percent ‘Community Solar’ Discount? Think Again!
By Joseph Toomey, Master Resource, May 9, 2023
“See? They’re not saying you’re getting a 10% reduction on your RETAIL electricity bill. They’re saying they will sell solar power to utilities under Power Purchase Agreements — i.e. WHOLESALE agreements — that are priced at a level 10% below the RETAIL rate level.”
How much wind killing do we want?
By David Wojick, CFACT, May 10th, 2023
https://www.cfact.org/2023/05/10/how-much-wind-killing-do-we-want/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=how-much-wind-killing-do-we-want&utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=how-much-wind-killing-do-we-want
“The vast majority of these dead birds will be songbirds. It is ironic that the environmental movement first took off with Carson’s “Silent Spring”, which warned about the potential extermination of songbirds. Now that we are rushing headlong into environmental industrialization it appears we have come full circle.
“It is time to ask the policy question: How much wind killing do we want? Or put another way, how much is too much?”
Manmade: Studies Suggest That Wind Parks Cause Climate Change, Even Regional Drought
By P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, May 7, 2023
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Other
Saudis Demand Hydrogen Enthusiasts Back their Hype with Money
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, May 11, 2023
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
A heavy dose of reality for electric-truck mandates
By Staff, American Trucking Associations, Apr 19, 2023
https://www.trucking.org/news-insights/heavy-dose-reality-electric-truck-mandates
“Remember, we deliver food, medicine, and baby formula…Failure is not merely inconvenient; it’s catastrophic.”
Electric Vehicle Illusions
No one can really say whether widespread adoption of EVs will cut carbon emissions.
By Mark Mills, City Journal, May 8, 2023
https://www.city-journal.org/article/electric-vehicles-and-carbon-emissions
“Meantime, hundreds of billions of dollars designated for wildly premature all-EV mandates will likely become stranded capital because the quantities of minerals needed won’t be available soon enough. Along the way, those stranded billions will do little or nothing to cut CO2 emissions. In the end, the rush to EVs could even increase global vehicle-related emissions.”
[SEPP Comment: What is clean about “clean technology” that requires massive strip mining?]
Trump’s EV crashes and burns
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 10, 2023
Does 500kg matter? Heavy EV cars may break bridges and car parks
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, May 10, 2023
Carbon Schemes
Carbon Capture Key to EPA’s New Power Plant Emissions Rule
By Darrell Proctor, Power Mag, May 11, 2023
“The IRA, passed last year, has significant incentives for the power generation sector around carbon capture. The legislation, which earmarked about $370 billion for clean energy programs, raised the Internal Revenue Service’s 45Q tax credit to $85 per metric ton in an effort to make carbon capture more economically viable. The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law created $6.5 billion in new federal funding for the technology across the next five years.
“The Biden administration has pledged to cut U.S. emissions of greenhouse gases in half by 2030, with a goal for net-zero emissions of CO2 by 2050. The U.S. Supreme Court last year ruled that the EPA has authority to regulate carbon emissions from power plants, but in a limited way. The IRA includes language that classifies greenhouse gases as pollutants that can be regulated by the EPA.
“Energy analysts have pointed out that although Obama’s Clean Power Plan was never officially implemented, the power generation sector achieved the goals of that regulation, which aimed to curb carbon emissions from energy by 32% from 2005 levels before 2030. That level was achieved more than 10 years ahead of schedule.”
California Dreaming
California’s Retail Electricity Price Highest in the Continental U.S. & More than Double the Western U.S. Average Price
By Larry Hamlin, WUWT, May 8, 2023
Other News that May Be of Interest
All birds are shrinking — but small birds are shrinking fastest
By Saul Elbein, The Hill, May 8, 2023
Link to paper: Body size predicts the rate of contemporary morphological change in birds
By Marketa Zimova, et al. PNAS, May 8, 2023
https://www.pnas.org/doi/full/10.1073/pnas.2206971120
Sea Turtles, Florida Lore, and Hurricane Prediction
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, May 9, 2023
[SEPP Comment: Better at predicting sea level rise than NOAA?]
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
That old thing?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 10, 2023
“Scientific American, between bouts of wokery like claiming sex is not binary in mammals, tells us ‘Melting sea ice is opening new pathways through the Arctic such as the famed Northwest Passage.’ And of course, it’s terrible in every way including ‘Less ice means more fog, making it harder and more dangerous for ships to navigate the thawing sea.’ More dangerous than what? Navigating intact ice?”
Whales in the Southern Ocean are becoming increasingly thinner due to global warming, suggests study
By Jeppe Kyhne Knudsen, Aarhus University, May 11, 2023 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://phys.org/news/2023-05-whales-southern-ocean-thinner-due.html
Link to paper: Decadal decline in maternal body condition of a Southern Ocean capital breeder
By Els Vermeulen, et al. Nature, Scientific Reports, Feb 24, 2023
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-023-30238-2
[SEPP Comment: No measurement of temperature change included. Could the problem be from an increase in whale population and human harvesting of krill for fish food?]
Archbishop Blames Climate Change For Illegal Immigrants
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 12, 2023
Justin Welby Caught Speeding {Archbishop of Canterbury]
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, May 12, 2023
See link immediately above.
Claim: Climate Change Could Cause Us Catch a Nasty Wooly Mammoth Virus
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, May 9, 2023
“Given our ancestors survived 10s of thousands of years of close contact with living mammoths, and millennia of melting ice after the end of the last ice age, I think we’ve already been exposed to pretty much everything mammoths have to offer.”
Weather modification, Mexican edition
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, May 10, 2023
“We also know if you talk a government into believing you can make it rain, with an aeroplane or a dance or a prayer or what have you, it will give you, say, 15 million pesos. Muchas gracias.”
ARTICLES
1. An EPA Death Sentence for Fossil-Fuel Power Plants
The Biden agency’s new rule means the end of natural gas-fueled electricity.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, May 11, 2023
https://www.wsj.com/articles/power-plants-environmental-protection-agency-rule-epa-biden-administration-fossil-fuels-60f06bd0?mod=opinion_lead_pos2
TWTW Summary:
“Progressives groused that the Inflation Reduction Act lacked ‘enforcement mechanisms’ to punish fossil fuels. Well, the White House took care of that Thursday with a new 681-page Environmental Protection Agency proposed rule that amounts to a death sentence for fossil-fuel power plants.”
The editorial briefly discusses the Supreme Court blocking Obama’s Clean Power Plan, then continues:
“Section 111 of the Clean Air Act says the EPA can regulate pollutants from stationary sources through the ‘best system of emission reduction’ that is ‘adequately demonstrated.’ Yet the EPA wants to require that fossil-fuel plants adopt carbon capture and green hydrogen technologies that aren’t currently cost-effective or feasible and may never be. Only one commercial-scale coal plant in the world uses carbon capture to reduce emissions, and no gas-fired plants do.
“Even if power plants implemented carbon capture, their cost of generation would double, rendering them less competitive against subsidized wind and solar power. There’s also the not-so-small problem of permitting. Thousands of miles of pipelines would have to be built to transport carbon to geologic structures where it can be injected.
“The EPA is sitting on permit applications for carbon sequestration facilities. Pipelines to transport CO2 would invariably run into the same regulatory roadblacks as those carrying oil and natural gas. Iowa farmers are already battling a pipeline to carry CO2 from ethanol plants to underground rock formations in North Dakota and Illinois.
“Natural gas plants might be able to comply with the rule by blending hydrogen into fuel. But almost all hydrogen today is produced from natural gas, so this wouldn’t result in a net reduction in CO2. Hence, EPA wants to make gas plants use ‘low-greenhouse gas’ hydrogen produced from renewable electricity, which is three to four times more expensive.
“Blending more hydrogen into gas also increases NOx emissions and puts plants out of compliance with other EPA regulations. To reduce NOx, power plants would have to install new turbines and other equipment, some of which is only now being developed.
“Alternatively, power plants can shut down, as most probably will. The EPA has been stacking burdensome rules onto coal plants, including three others since March, with the goal of forcing them into premature retirement.
“‘By presenting all of those rules at the same time to the industry,’ EPA Administrator Michael Regan said last year, ‘the industry gets a chance to take a look at this suite of rules all at once and say, ‘Is it worth doubling down in investments in this current facility? Or should we look at that cost and say now it’s time to pivot and invest in a clean energy future?’’
“But the clean energy future is still the future, and the technologies that EPA wants to mandate don’t exist. Forcing fossil-fuel plants to shut down prematurely will endanger grid reliability. Don’t worry, EPA says, plants won’t have to fully comply for seven to 12 years. But their owners and utilities must make economic investment calculations today. [Boldface added]
“The proposed rule won’t make an iota of difference to the climate as China and India ramp up coal power. Even EPA’s CO2 emissions reduction estimate over the next two decades amounts to only a third of that between 2010 and 2019 as natural gas replaced coal.
“The EPA is gambling that it can sneak this through the courts. But the rule is a de facto mandate to shift to renewables from fossil fuels, which Congress never explicitly authorized. The Supreme Court’s 5-4 Massachusetts v. EPA decision that let the agency regulate greenhouse gas emissions rests on shaky ground. EPA is inviting a legal challenge that could boomerang, and let’s hope it does.”
********************
2. The Deep State Is All Too Real
Congress and the courts have shirked their duty, letting bureaucrats make and interpret the laws.
By David Bernhardt, WSJ, May 9, 2023
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-deep-state-is-all-too-real-congress-chevron-delegation-civics-hunter-biden-985ed65e?mod=hp_opin_pos_2#cxrecs_s
TWTW Summary: The former Secretary if Interior writes: [Boldface added]
“During my time in the Interior Department, I saw many career employees faithfully work for the American people.
“Unfortunately, a great number of their colleagues don’t. I vividly recall asking one Interior Department employee, whose remit included work on an endangered mouse species, what her job was. She enthusiastically replied: ‘I speak for the mice! I speak for the mice!’”
After more detail the former secretary concludes:
The high court also announced last month that it will hear arguments next term in Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo—a case that will reconsider Chevron deference. If the justices overturn the precedent, or at least significantly pare it back, executive agencies will no longer get to administer and interpret the law. Such a ruling would go a long way in restoring essential constitutional checks and balances.
The Supreme Court has also made it easier to sue over separation-of-powers violations. In Axon v. FTC, which the court decided last month, all nine justices agreed that Americans can immediately sue agencies over separation-of-powers violations without first having to spend years spinning their wheels in administrative proceedings. In a concurrence, Justice Clarence Thomas added that the court should re-examine whether agencies can constitutionally impose fines without a jury trial. A case addressing that very issue, SEC v. Jarkesy, may come before the high court next year.
The government doesn’t operate the way Americans are taught in elementary school. But between pending court cases and potential executive-led reforms, the theoretical checks and balances and democratic accountability may soon become much closer to reality.
