The Week That Was: 2025 02-01 (February 1, 2025)
Brought to You by SEPP (www.SEPP.org)
The Science and Environmental Policy Project
Quote of the Week: “All other aspects and characteristics of science can be understood directly when we understand that observation is the ultimate and final judge of the truth of an idea.” — Richard Feynman, The Meaning of It All: Thoughts of a Citizen-Scientist (1998)
Number of the Week: 70%
THIS WEEK:
By Ken Haapala, President, Science and Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)
Scope: This Week begins with questioning whether climate science is a physical science, then continues with a presentation of EPA’s Endangerment Finding. An essay from Howard Hayden asserts climate science is not a science comprehending the greenhouse effect. TWTW discusses essays by Edward Calabrese et al, noting that the linear-no-threshold model used by the EPA is not based on physical evidence. This Week continues with brief discussions on suppressing research, coral bleaching, and the high cost of unreliable generation of electricity.
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A Physical Science? The Trump Administration has opened the Endangerment Finding to questioning. Therefore, this issue will begin a series on the Endangerment Finding, asking among other questions “Is Climate Science A Physical Science?” If Climate Science does not meet all the standards of a physical science, then the Endangerment Finding is politics, not science. The standards used in this series are embodied in The Meaning of It All: Thoughts of a Citizen-Scientist by Richard Feynman (1998). Particular emphasis is placed on the chapter entitled “The Uncertainty of Science.” For example [Boldface added]:
“The third aspect of my subject is that of science as a method of finding things out. This method is based on the principle that observation is the judge of whether something is so or not. All other aspects and characteristics of science can be understood directly when we understand that observation is the ultimate and final judge of the truth of an idea. But ‘prove’ used in this way really means ‘test,’ in the same way that a hundred-proof alcohol is a test of the alcohol, and for people today the idea really should be translated as, ‘the exception tests the rule.’ Or, put another way, ‘The exception proves that the rule is wrong.’ That is the principle of science. If there is an exception to any rule, and if it can be proved by observation, that rule is wrong.”
Of course, physical experiments are part of observation and when possible, carefully controlled experiments which eliminate as many contributing influences as possible are the finest form of observation. Thought experiments, speculation, are useful; however, as they must be tested by observation. Otherwise, they remain speculation. This series begins with a discussion of three issues: 1) The Endangerment Finding; 2) A provocative essay “What ‘Climate Science’ Is NOT About” by Howard “Cork” Hayden; and 3) A published paper by Edward J. Calabrese & Dima Yazji Shamoun discussing the development of the Linear No Threshold model used by the EPA.
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The Endangerment Finding: The EPA has several posted versions of the history of the Endangerment Finding. The one used here closely corresponds to what is published in the December 15, 2009, Federal Register, titled “Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases Under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act; Final Rule.” The summary, titled Legal Background begin:
“On December 7, 2009, EPA finalized its finding under Clean Air Act section 202(a) that greenhouse gases in the atmosphere endanger both the public health and the environment for current and future generations. The agency also found that the combined emissions of greenhouse gases from new motor vehicles and new motor vehicle engines are contributing to the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, and thus to the climate change problem. The specific findings are:
- EPA finds that the elevated concentrations of the six greenhouse gases in the atmosphere—carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6)—endanger both the public health and the public welfare of current and future generations.
- EPA finds that the combined emissions of greenhouse gases from new motor vehicles and new motor vehicle engines contribute to the greenhouse gas air pollution which endangers both public health and welfare.”
The first three gases, CO2, CH4, and N2O are of particular interest to TWTW. Carbon dioxide, CO2, is emitted by the use of fossil fuels, as well as human breathing. Methane, CH4, is emitted by nature, such as swamps, and is a major fossil fuel in the US. Nitrous Oxide, N2O, is a product of artificial fertilizer using the Haber-Bosch process which converts nitrogen and hydrogen into ammonia using three chemical inputs: water, natural gas, and atmospheric nitrogen. The ammonia is then used worldwide to produce artificial fertilizer as well as some plastics, fibers, and explosives. It is further processed into dyes and pharmaceuticals. Thus, the EPA Endangerment Finding is detrimental to modern civilization.
Note that in its Endangerment Finding, the EPA ignores the dominant greenhouse gas, water vapor. Water vapor is emitted into the atmosphere by motor vehicles using internal combustion engines, power plants using fossil fuels, most nuclear power plants (using water for cooling), and is critical in the global climate models that find significant global warming from greenhouse gases. This is one example how the EPA ignores physical evidence that may contradict its finding.
The physical evidence for the Endangerment Finding is found in the Technical Support Document for Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases under Section 202(a) of the Clean Act. In its Executive Summary under “Observed Effects Associated With Global Elevated Concentrations of GHGs” it states [Boldface in original]:
“Current ambient air concentrations of CO2 and other GHGs remain well below published exposure thresholds for any direct adverse health effects, such as respiratory or toxic effects.
The global average net effect of the increase in atmospheric GHG concentrations, plus other human activities (e.g., land-use change and aerosol emissions), on the global energy balance since 1750 has been one of warming. This total net heating effect, referred to as forcing, is estimated to be +1.6 (+0.6 to +2.4) watts per square meter (W/m2), with much of the range surrounding this estimate due to uncertainties about the cooling and warming effects of aerosols. However, as aerosol forcing has more regional variability than the well-mixed, long-lived GHGs, the global average might not capture some regional effects. The combined radiative forcing due to the cumulative (i.e., 1750 to 2005) increase in atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4, and N2O is estimated to be +2.30 (+2.07 to +2.53) W/m2 . The rate of increase in positive radiative forcing due to these three GHGs during the industrial era is very likely to have been unprecedented in more than 10,000 years.
Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level. Global mean surface temperatures have risen by 1.3 ± 0.32°F (0.74°C ± 0.18°C) over the last 100 years. Eight of the 10 warmest years on record have occurred since 2001. Global mean surface temperature was higher during the last few decades of the 20th century than during any comparable period during the preceding four centuries. [The document was written in 2009, thus they could not have known Earth’s calculate temperature for 2009 in making the claim, Eight of the 10 warmest years on record have occurred since 2001.]
Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations. Climate model simulations suggest natural forcing alone (i.e., changes in solar irradiance) cannot explain the observed warming.
U.S. temperatures also warmed during the 20th and into the 21st century; temperatures are now approximately 1.3°F (0.7°C) warmer than at the start of the 20th century, with an increased rate of warming over the past 30 years. Both the IPCC and the CCSP reports attributed recent North American warming to elevated GHG concentrations. In the CCSP (2008g) report, the authors find that for North America, “more than half of this warming [for the period 1951-2006] is likely the result of human-caused greenhouse gas forcing of climate change.”
Observations show that changes are occurring in the amount, intensity, frequency, and type of precipitation. Over the contiguous United States, total annual precipitation increased by 6.1% from 1901 to 2008. It is likely that there have been increases in the number of heavy precipitation events within ES-3 many land regions, even in those where there has been a reduction in total precipitation amount, consistent with a warming climate.
There is strong evidence that global sea level gradually rose in the 20th century and is currently rising at an increased rate. It is not clear whether the increasing rate of sea level rise is a reflection of short-term variability or an increase in the longer-term trend. Nearly all of the Atlantic Ocean shows sea level rise during the last 50 years with the rate of rise reaching a maximum (over 2 millimeters [mm] per year) in a band along the U.S. east coast running east-northeast.
Satellite data since 1979 show that the annual average Arctic sea ice extent has shrunk by 4.1% per decade. The size and speed of recent Arctic summer sea ice loss is highly anomalous relative to the previous few thousands of years.”
Note that this omits the role of water vapor, the dominant greenhouse gas, and the warming trends of the 1930s, the warmest period in the US, and the 1950s as well as the cooling trend of the 1970s. The satellite data is for a short period. See links under Defending the Orthodoxy.
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Missing Science: The essay by Atomic, Molecular, and Optical physicist Howard “Cork” Hayden is relevant here. He discusses “What ‘Climate Science’ Is NOT About.” Hayden begins:
“Al Gore’s movie An Inconvenient Truth left some lasting—and very incorrect—impressions. … he correctly points out that ‘some of this infrared radiation is trapped by the earth’s atmosphere and warms it.’
There is no doubt that only about 60% of the amount of radiant emission from the surface goes into space, and there is no doubt that the difference is mostly caused by atmospheric gases (some is due to clouds). But the misleading implication is that ‘climate scientists’—the ones who assert that ‘greenhouse gas pollution has caused most of the warming of the last 50 years’ quoted in the same movie—are experts in the science of the greenhouse effect.”
Hayden presents the graph of the observed Infrared (IR) Spectrum for a clear atmosphere near Guam on April 27, 1970 – physical evidence that has existed for over 50 years, and which existed for almost 40 years before the EPA Endangerment Finding. This graph is similar to the graphs used by William Happer in his presentation discussed in last week’s TWTW. Happer stated such calculations were first made by Karl Schwarzschild. The difference between the Planck curve (blackbody emission based on the Stefan-Boltzmann law) and the Schwarzschild graph is the greenhouse effect.
Below the graph Hayden writes:
In 1970, the Nimbus satellite flew over Guam and measured the spectrum of infrared (IR) going to space. The graph shown in Figure 1 [not shown here, see link], has numerous features of interest. The smooth curves show blackbody spectra at various temperatures. For example, the 300 K (Kelvin; absolute) line is a bit higher than that of the surface of the earth at about 288 K. The jagged line shows the measured IR spectrum, which might be regarded as a blackbody spectrum with big bites removed by CO2, ozone (O3), and H2O (primarily left and right ends of the spectrum).
The theoretical curve, calculated from molecular spectra, is a very good fit, save for the O3 region that was ignored.
The surface of the earth emits a smooth blackbody spectrum, and the interactions between IR and various atmospheric gases (lovingly called greenhouse gases) are what causes the jagged spectrum emitted to space. Less IR goes to space than is emitted by the surface.
As you can imagine, calculation of the spectrum of IR emitted to space is quite involved; how could it be otherwise, with such a jagged line? To make a long story short, it involves quantum mechanics (the quantitative nature of vibrational and rotational states of molecules), molecular spectroscopy (how various wavelengths of IR interact with molecules at what temperatures and atmospheric pressures), and statistical mechanics (the temperature-dependent populations of excited states). [Boldface added]
The term greenhouse effect is used as a shorthand descriptive of all those processes that change the nature of the spectrum and the reduction of IR intensity caused by greenhouse gases (GHGs).
For all the talk about how CO2 is killing the planet, how we have to limit “carbon emissions,” and how we must use “carbon-capture technologies,” you would think that “climate science” is a scientific field about the greenhouse effect.
You would be wrong.
Choose any college or university offering a degree in Climate Science. Look up the course offerings and the degree requirements. Read every word. Look for any reference to quantum mechanics, molecular spectroscopy, or statistical mechanics. You will find none.
Now, pore over IPCC’s six Assessment Reports. Look for any mention of the spectra of any greenhouse gases. Look for any discussion of how IR interacts with greenhouse gases, even the dreaded CO2. Look for any discussion of how the atmosphere converts the smooth blackbody spectrum emitted by the surface into the jagged spectrum of IR going to space. Look for any graph of any spectrum whatsoever. You will find only one, and it is laughably incorrect. We’ll discuss that problem later.
To put it fairly, but bluntly, ‘climate science’—whatever its merits—is not the science of the greenhouse effect.
In short, the public has been greatly misled by the US EPA, the UN IPCC, and its collaborators on what the greenhouse effect is. What these organizations proclaim as the greenhouse effect is largely a morass of speculation bound up by global climate models that fail basic testing against what is occurring in the atmosphere. No matter who does it, speculation is not physical evidence or physical science. See link under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Linear No Threshold: The above is not the first time the public has been misled by speculation disguised as physical evidence, or the only way the EPA misleads the public. Another technique used by the EPA is the Linear No Threshold Model. On Jan 15, 2025, The Journal of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene published an article by Edward J. Calabrese, James Giordano, & Dima Yazji Shamoun titled “Professional improbity: How Hermann J. Muller’s ethics affected his science.” The abstract reads:
“The present paper provides an assessment of how the scientific and national policy achievements/goals of Hermann J. Muller were impacted by his ethics and provides several documented episodes in which Muller acted unethically to promote his personal gain—at the expense of others—within the scientific community. Muller manipulated the scientific community in self-serving ways to suppress perspectives that challenged his own views on radiation-induced gene mutation, and hereditary and cancer risk assessment in ways that influenced his significant awards (e.g., Nobel Prize in Medicine or Physiology), continued grant funding, and manifest effect on public health policy. Muller acted irresponsibly toward students and directed them to violate University of Texas policies that incurred severe student disciplinary actions (e.g., University suspension). Muller avoided responsibility by resigning from the University of Texas, avoiding a trial that could have led to his dismissal, and impacted his career achievements during the period of his nomination for the Nobel Prize. Muller was also a member of a US National Academy of Sciences Committee that committed scientific misconduct by misrepresenting the research record in ways that enhanced his continued funding support and fortified his influence on US health policy. The case of Muller is presented as a morality and object lesson worthy of consideration for current and future ethical conduct of scientific research.” [Boldface added]
Further, on Jan 6, 2025, the Journal published a paper by Edward Calabrese and Dima Yazji Shamoun titled “Muller was awarded the Nobel Prize: A front for eugenics.” The abstract reads:
“This paper asserts that the Nobel Prize for Medicine/Physiology that Hermann J. Muller received in 1946 was a front to enhance the legitimacy, acceptance, and application of eugenics, a strategy to guide the direction and rate of human evolutionary change. Seven of the nine people nominating (1932–1946) Muller were proponents of eugenics with Muller being among the most visible of the scientific leaders. Muller’s nominators never cited his Nobel Prize research in scientific literature, lacked expertise in radiation-induced mutations, and were not qualified to evaluate Muller’s research. Muller’s claim of induced “gene” mutations with extremely high radiation dose rates remained highly uncertain, undercutting legitimate Nobel Prize consideration. Despite their diverse range of educational, research, and political backgrounds, they nominated Muller based on the convergence. of their respective eugenic ideologies. The Chair of the Nobel Prize committee not only was a committed eugenicist but also nominated Muller the previous year and had invited these nominators under the belief they would support his prolonged advocacy for Muller. While the underlying intent of the nominations was to associate extremely high scientific achievement with eugenics, the Prize was ironically awarded immediately after World War II, and eugenics would be profoundly stigmatized due to its association with horrific actions against humanity by the Nazis. However, Muller’s Nobel Prize became a fear-based lightning rod for the environmental revolution, inspiring the book Silent Spring (1962), and providing the central framework for cancer risk assessment by regulatory agencies worldwide.” [Boldface added]
Aside from the sad state of affairs of giving high scientific honors to someone who did not deserve them, the papers detail how contradicting research was suppressed in favor of claiming false genetic effects from radiation. The main text of the January 6 paper [unfortunately paywalled] states:
“While eugenics was taking its deep and prolonged dive, the concept of environmental health, including hereditary and cancer risk assessment, was on the ascendancy but still in need of a simple, but scientifically viable platform. The answer was found in awarding Muller the Nobel Prize, which soon became the central feature of the environmental/public health/ regulatory science movement, providing the necessary strategic vision and one with numerous applications.
Thus, Muller’s long reach was far more complex than previously believed. In the case of his main goal and those of his nominators, his reach as seen with the demise of eugenics, became rapidly truncated and abortive, in fact, a major failure (Paul 1987). But his research, despite its limitations, soon became ‘visionary,’ molded and applied to the environmental movement, being a major inspiration for the Rachel Carson (1962) book, Silent Spring, with Muller, and his mutation ‘claims’ and his Proportionality Rule/ LNT concept becoming the foundation for cancer risk assessment, starting with the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and then, ironically, spreading like a metastasizing cancer to the rest of the world (Albert 1994). [Boldface added]
The suppressed research includes studies of the descendants of survivors of atomic blasts at Hiroshima and Nagasaki. There is no increase in genetic mutations from these events. The EPA’s use of the linear no-threshold (LNT) model continues today, and it is contrary to scientific evidence from observation. The model fails to consider mechanisms in the human body which repair damage and membranes in the body which protect the brain and the reproductive organs.
Yet, the EPA uses the LNT model to buttress the Endangerment Finding, and claims of deaths from PM-2.5, PM-10, “forever chemicals” fluoride, etc. The UN World Health Organization (WHO) dutifully follows. Yet, observed human deaths do not support these claims. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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Suppressing Research: Writing in WUWT, Angela Wheeler of the CO2 Coalition states that Facebook suppressed writings from the CO2 Coalition: Wheeler writes:
“Our latest encounter with Facebook came in a message from the platform’s corporate entity, Meta, on December 4, which read: ‘Your Page, CO2 Coalition, didn’t follow the rules, so it isn’t being suggested to other people right now.’”
The offending paper is: “The Role of Greenhouse Gases in Energy Transfer in the Earth’s Atmosphere” which is based on the HITRAN database, the best available evidence on what is occurring in today’s atmosphere. Physical evidence violates rules of Facebook? See links under Suppressing Scientific Inquiry and Challenging the Orthodoxy – Radiation Transfer.
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Coral Bleaching: Writing in WUWT, Jim Steele has an essay on Coral Bleaching, which is falsely assumed to be caused by carbon dioxide-enhanced global warming. Of course, those promoting fear of global warming avoid explaining why fossils of “tropical corals” are found in British Columbia, Ontario, and on the shores of Lake Huron in Canada where it is far too cold for them today? See link on coral beaching under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
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High Cost of Unreliable Generation: In Climate Etc. Planning Engineer Russ Schussler has an essay on How the Green Energy Narrative confuses things. He states:
“There is a powerful but misleading narrative supporting a green energy transition. A follow up piece will look more broadly at the general narrative supporting a transition to net zero. This prequel will provide some detail on a few components of the energy narrative and how this misleading narrative was established. The green energy narrative works somewhat like a magician’s patter, overemphasizing many things of irrelevance and distracting the audience from the important things going on. Misdirection ensures small truths are misinterpreted and magnified, leading to completely unrealistic hopes and expectations.”
Germany and the UK are experiencing how well this magic generation works in practice. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy, Questioning European Green, Energy Issues – Non-US, Subsidies and Mandates Forever, and Article # 1.
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Number of the Week: 70%: As stated above, the Haber-Bosch process converts nitrogen and hydrogen into ammonia using three chemical inputs: water, natural gas, and atmospheric nitrogen. The ammonia is then used worldwide to produce artificial fertilizer as well as some plastics, fibers, and explosives. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA):
“Ammonia makes an indispensable contribution to global agricultural systems through its use for fertilizers. Ammonia is the starting point for all mineral nitrogen fertilizers, forming a bridge between the nitrogen in the air and the food we eat. About 70% of ammonia is used for fertilizers, while the remainder is used for various industrial applications, such as plastics, explosives, and synthetic fibers.” [Boldface in original]
Thus, in its Endangerment Finding, the US EPA finds carbon dioxide, essential for life on Earth, is a pollutant and that nitrous oxide from artificial fertilizers (that use ammonia), vital for modern agriculture, is a pollutant. Apparently, to the EPA, modern life is a pollutant. See https://www.iea.org/reports/ammonia-technology-roadmap/executive-summary
Suppressing Scientific Inquiry
Facebook “Fact Checks” Prof. Will Happer
By Angela Wheeler, WUWT, Jan 25, 2025
Challenging the Orthodoxy — NIPCC
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science
Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2013
Summary: https://www.heartland.org/_template-assets/documents/CCR/CCR-II/Summary-for-Policymakers.pdf
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts
Idso, Idso, Carter, and Singer, Lead Authors/Editors, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), 2014
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-biological-impacts/
Climate Change Reconsidered II: Fossil Fuels
By Multiple Authors, Bezdek, Idso, Legates, and Singer eds., Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change, April 2019
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/climate-change-reconsidered-ii-fossil-fuels/
Why Scientists Disagree About Global Warming
The NIPCC Report on the Scientific Consensus
By Craig D. Idso, Robert M. Carter, and S. Fred Singer, Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), Nov 23, 2015
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/why-scientists-disagree-about-global-warming/
Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate
S. Fred Singer, Editor, NIPCC, 2008
http://www.sepp.org/publications/nipcc_final.pdf
Challenging the Orthodoxy – Radiation Transfer
The Role of Greenhouse Gases in Energy Transfer in the Earth’s Atmosphere
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, Mar 3, 2023
Dependence of Earth’s Thermal Radiation on Five Most Abundant Greenhouse Gases
By W.A. van Wijngaarden and W. Happer, Preprint, December 22, 2020
https://wvanwijngaarden.info.yorku.ca/files/2020/12/WThermal-Radiationf.pdf?x45936
Challenging the Orthodoxy
What “Climate Science” Is Not About
By Howard “Cork” Hayden, The Energy Advocate, January 2025 Via SEPP
http://www.sepp.org/science_papers/What.docx
Professional improbity: How Hermann J. Muller’s ethics affected his science
By Edward J. Calabrese, James Giordano, & Dima Yazji Shamoun, Journal of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene, Jan 15, 2025
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/15459624.2025.2449937?src=
The unraveling of a Nobel Prize: How Hermann Muller was awarded the Nobel Prize: A front for eugenics
By Edward J. Calabrese and Dima Yazji Shamoun, Journal of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene, Jan 6, 2025
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/15459624.2024.2440558
How can eager Governments get off the Net Zero hook?
Video, Benny Peiser, GWPF, Via ICSF/CLINTEL, Jan 29, 2025 [H/t Jim O’Brien]
NATURE Study: Sunshine Hours, Cloud Cover In Europe Follow Atlantic Cycles, Not CO2
From Klimanachrichten, Via P Gosselin, No Tricks Zone, Jan 29, 2025
Link to paper: Central-European sunshine hours, relationship with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and forecast
By Horst-Joachim Lüdecke, Gisela Müller-Plath & Sebastian Lüning, Nature, Scientific Reports, Oct 24, 2024
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-024-73506-5
From abstract: Sunshine hours (SSH) is an important meteorological parameter, loosely linked to temperature and precipitation, and highly relevant for various sectors such as agriculture or solar energy. Previous studies have already identified a correlation of European SSH with the thermal state of the North Atlantic. This paper investigates this relationship further by studying annual and monthly SSH of seven long-term Central European SSH series and comparing them to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) using Fourier Transformation, Monte Carlo simulation and non-linear optimization.
How To Rescind The Endangerment Finding In A Way That Will Stick
By Franics Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Jan 26, 2025
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2025-1-26-how-to-rescind-the-endangerment-finding-in-a-way-that-will-stick
Parts of EF to consider: Is the warming produced by CO2 dangerous – no; Can the US control the bulk of CO2 generation – no, only a small part; Model forecasts, projections are false; and others.
Truths about Coral Bleaching: CO2 Warming vs Reduced Clouds Cover?
By Jim Steele, WUWT, Jan 29, 2025
The coral that now form our modern reefs evolved 240 million years ago during the Age of Dinosaurs when coral formed a marvelously fluid symbiotic relationship with symbiodinium algae. The new algae symbionts absorbed CO2 and produced sugars via photosynthesis for the coral. In turn coral respiration produced CO2 that supported the algae’s photosynthetic production.
How the Green Energy Narrative confuses things
By Russ Schussler (Planning Engineer), Climate Etc. Jan 30, 2025
How much did increasing “Climate Whiplash” impact the Los Angeles Fires?
“Climate whiplash” appears to be a larger advance in climate science marketing than in climate science.
By Patrick Brown, Breakthrough Institute, Jan 29, 2025 [H/t Roger Pielke Jr.]
https://www.breakthroughjournal.org/p/how-much-did-increasing-climate-whiplash?utm_source=cross-post&publication_id=2392380&post_id=156031075&utm_campaign=119454&isFreemail=true&r=f7h7&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
From Pielke: This post by Patrick Brown is outstanding, highly recommended!
From Brown’s conclusion: My main discomfort with Swain et al. (2025) and its rollout is that it appears that the primary goal was to create and disseminate the “climate whiplash” meme rather than conduct a truly rigorous evaluation of the evidence, including countervailing evidence. Ultimately, this makes the research a much larger advance in marketing than an advance in science.
Heartland Institute in the UK/EU: Guilty as Charged! (DeSmog backfire)
By Robert Bradley Jr, Master Resource, Jan 31, 2025
Defending the Orthodoxy
Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases Under Section 202(a) of the Clean Air Act; Final Rule
By Staff, Federal Register, Dec 15, 2009
EPA’s Endangerment Finding, Legal Background
By Staff, EPA, Dec 7, 2009
Technical Support Document for Endangerment and Cause or Contribute Findings for Greenhouse Gases under Section 202(a) of the Clean Act.
By Staff, EPA, Dec 7, 2009
Planet Earth’s natural resources are limited to its 8 billion residents
By Ronald Stein, Robert Jeffrey, and Olivia Vaughan, America Outloud News, Jan 28, 2025
At current rates of extraction by the wealthier countries of limited natural resources like oil, gas, coal, lithium, cobalt, manganese, etc., the planet may be sucked dry in 1,000 or 5,000 years.
[SEPP Comment: Since the dawn of civilization, humans have found substitutes for natural resources and will continue to do so. Combustible fuels, once used, are gone. The earth’s supply of iron, cobalt, manganese, lithium, oxygen, and everything else has not diminished, save for the stuff sent out to the solar system.]
Defending the Orthodoxy – Bandwagon Science
Another Ocean Warming Scare: Bad Models, Bad Data, and a Clear Agenda
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Jan 28, 2025
Link to press release: Ocean-surface warming four times faster now than late-1980s
University of Reading, Jan 28, 2025
https://www.reading.ac.uk/news/2025/Research-News/Ocean-surface-warming-four-times-faster-now-than-late-1980s
Link to paper: Quantifying the acceleration of multidecadal global sea surface warming driven by Earth’s energy imbalance
Christopher J Merchant, Richard P Allan and Owen Embury, Environmental Research Letters, Jan 28, 2025
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/adaa8a
From abstract: Our results provide observational evidence that the GMSST increase inferred over the past 40 years will likely be exceeded within the next 20 years. Policy makers and wider society should be aware that the rate of global warming over recent decades is a poor guide to the faster change that is likely over the decades to come, underscoring the urgency of deep reductions in fossil-fuel burning.
[SEPP Comment: Another hockey-stick technique: sticking two different datasets together and pretending it’s meaningful. There were no systematic measurements of ocean temperatures until the Argo Buoy program was launched in 1999. It is the best program of seas temperatures existing, yet far from comprehensive. What was the source of the 1980’s data? Where is the effort to standardize it with 2020’s data?]
“Landman” vs. the Environmentalists
By Douglas French, Power & Market, Mises Institute, Jan 25, 2025 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://mises.org/power-market/landman-vs-environmentalists
Peter Kalmus, a data scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory and noted climate scientist, told the Bloomberg audience that the California fires are caused by the fossil fuel industry which produces products that, when used, heat the planet. “It’s simply physics,” he said with certainty.
[SEPP Comment: Only to a simpleton is Earth’s climate simple physics.]
Questioning the Orthodoxy
Citigroup: “Trump Can’t Stop Energy Transition”!
By Daivd Middleton, WUWT, Jan 30, 2025
President Trump can’t stop something that isn’t happening. To the extent a “transition” is occurring, it’s from coal to natural gas. This is not really a transition. Both are carbon-based fossil fuels, with high energy densities; It’s more of an energy clean-up, rather than a transition.
Is the climate doomsday cult finally losing power?
By Vijay Jayaraj, American Thinker, Jan 30, 2025
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2025/01/is_the_climate_doomsday_cult_finally_losing_power.html
The California Fires Were Not Caused By Climate Change
By Chris Martz, Cornwall Alliance, Jan 16, 2025
Climate Stagnation: Tokyo And Hachijojima Island Have Seen No December Warming In Decades!
By P Gosselin, Charts by Kirye, No Tricks Zone, Jan 25, 2025
After Paris!
We won’t always have Paris
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 29, 2025
No. Because Paris couldn’t work, only a fool would have expected a “voluntary, enforcement-free framework” to usher in a golden liberal New World Order, and if Paris had achieved its targets they would have done nothing to stop “climate change” according to the very models that supposedly made it urgent. (Incredibly, the UN calls it “a legally binding international treaty on climate change”. But it only binds nations to do whatever they feel like.)
Trump Dumps the Paris Agreement: Is it a Big Deal?
By Tilak Doshi, The Daily Sceptic, Jan 28, 2025
President Trump’s executive order for the US to exit the Paris agreement is a huge deal, not least in saving the nation hundreds of millions of dollars which would have been spent on climate boondoggles such as President Biden’s euphemistically termed Inflation Reduction Act and vast transfers in climate funds pledged to developing countries. Let not the naysayers say otherwise.
Bloomberg Group Keeps Millions Behind Green Wall
By Larry Behrens, Real Clear Energy, Jan 30, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/01/30/bloomberg_group_keeps_millions_behind_green_wall_1088327.html
[SEPP Comment: The author fails to recognize that although the Paris agreement may be a treaty under international law, it is not a treaty under US law. The Obama administration forced changes to it to make sure it was not a treaty, which required submission to the Senate. US public officials who promote the Paris agreement as a treaty fail in their oath of office.
“I do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; that I take this obligation freely, without any mental reservation or purpose of evasion; and that I will well and faithfully discharge the duties of the office on which I am about to enter. So help me God.”]
Social Benefits of Carbon Dioxide
Cassava and CO2
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 29, 2025
From the CO2Science Archive:
Seeking a Common Ground
Scientists don’t know why 2024 was so hot
By David Whitehouse, Net Zero Watch, Jan 29, 2025
https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-news/zfckxxtuiyq5l6zc42563k1e1rodjl
Study: Climate Change Did Not Drive Giant Kangaroos to Extinction
Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 26, 2025
Link to paper: Dietary breadth in kangaroos facilitated resilience to Quaternary climatic variations
By Samuel D. Arman, et al., Science, Jan 9, 2025
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adq4340
[SEPP Comment: The animal did not have an overly specialized diet that would have caused it to die off.]
Model Issues
Is Ockham’s razor losing its edge? New perspectives on the principle of model parsimony
By Marina Dubova, et al., PNAS, Jan 27, 2025 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2401230121
The pioneering science linking climate to weather disasters
By Julien Mivielle, Phys.org, Jan 29, 2025 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://phys.org/news/2025-01-science-linking-climate-weather-disasters.html
Using computer models, scientists can compare a simulation of a particular weather event against a world in which warming caused by the burning of fossil fuels and other human activities was not present.
[SEPP Comment: It is pioneering in believing that studies with little or no physical evidence supporting the cause of an event are science. The computer models fail basic testing against physical evidence and are meaningless as physical science.]
Measurement Issues — Surface
Australian Heatwave Stories Cop Severe Criticism
By Geoff Sherrington, WUWT, Jan 29, 2025
A day of missing data can lead to large damage to the calculations, because that 1 day affects 9 other days in the 10-DAY analysis. Therefore, all missing values were infilled, either by a subjective guess in the ballpark of surrounding values, or with the overall average Tmax value for the station. The shortest duration station, Brisbane, has some 50,400 days analyzed, with a few hundred missing values, so the odds of induced error are small. They can be traced.
[SEPP Comment: Many natural occurrences are complex and have a complex array of causes with varying levels of influence. Climate change is one such complex set of occurrences. The simplified version that CO2 is the primary cause of climate change is false. Yet the climate modelers refuse to recognize their failure. Instead, they double down on the failure.]
Mace Head’s “Record Wind” Claims Only Based on 22 Years Data [Ireland]
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 28, 2025
Changing Weather
Weather/Climate 2024 in Review
By Joseph D’Aleo, ICECAP, Jan 31, 2025
http://icecap.us/index.php/go/joes-blog/weather_climate_2024_in_review2/
The Most Major Hurricanes Ever
The 2024 update to our global hurricane landfall database
By Roger Pielke Jr. His Blog, Jan 27, 2025
https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/the-most-major-hurricanes-ever?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=119454&post_id=155857617&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=f7h7&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
Last year the world experienced the most major hurricane landfalls since records are available, tying only 2015, with 11 storms.
In fact, 2024 saw the third most landfalls around the world of any year since 1970, trailing only 1971 (30) and 1996 (25),
The record (tying) number of major [Atlantic] hurricane landfalls of 2024 is notable, but it is not part of any identifiable trend in hurricane frequency or intensity.
[SEPP Comment: The Global Major Hurricane Frequency is down from the high period of the mid-1990s.]
The Media Goes Full Hysterical Over Eowyn
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 26, 2025
It is hardly surprising that the younger generation, who have no memory of the really devastating storms of the past, genuinely believe that storms like Eowyn really are unprecedented and the consequence of climate change. The media have done a good job of brainwashing them!
The Direct Connection Between Northwest Weather and Los Angeles Santa Ana Winds (and Wildfires)
By Cliff Mass, Weather Blog, Jan 25, 2025
https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2025/01/the-direct-connection-between-northwest.html
#LookItUp: Tropical cyclone and hurricane trends
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 29, 2025
As far as we’re concerned, it is premature to conclude with high confidence that increasing atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations from human activities have had a detectable impact on Atlantic basin hurricane activity.
[SEPP Comment: As the chart shows, the Global Tropical Cyclone Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) was higher in the mid- to late-1990s than any time since 1972, when records began.]
The 1998 Boxing Day Storm
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 27, 2025
What used to be a run of the mill event now appears to be a rarity!
Illinois 1953 Vs. 2024
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Jan 30, 2025
The percent of hot afternoons has plummeted in Illinois over the past ninety years.
Changing Seas
Atmospheric wind energization of ocean weather
By Shikhar Rai, et al., Nature, Communications, Jan 30, 2025 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-025-56310-1
The Evidence Clearly Shows Sea Levels Were Meters Higher Than Today A Few Millennia Ago
By Kenneth Richard, No Tricks Zone, Jan 30, 2025
Link to paper: Holocene to present-day coastal landscapes of Bar al Hikman (Oman): Neolithic waypoints on the shores of the Arabian Sea
By Thomas Teillet, et al., Quaternary Science Reviews, Nov 1, 2024
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0277379124003433
[SEPP Comment: There are a number of issues that must be established before claiming that a change in a specific location can be generalized to apply to sea level. Among these issues are: 1) geological stability, 2) sediment to include sand, vegetation, and coral accretion; and 3) prevailing winds.]
Corals To Disappear Soon
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Jan 28, 2025
Changing Cryosphere – Land / Sea Ice
The bad ship Alarmism hits another iceberg
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 29, 2025
Link to paper: 47 Years of Large Antarctic Calving Events: Insights From Extreme Value Theory
By Emma J. MacKie, Millstein, and Serafin, Geophysical Research Letters, Nov 29, 2024
https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2024GL112235
From abstract: We use 47 years of iceberg size from satellite observations. Our analysis reveals no upward trend in the surface area of the largest annual iceberg over this time frame. This finding suggests that extreme calving events such as the recent 2017 Larsen C iceberg, A68, are statistically unexceptional and that extreme calving events are not necessarily a consequence of climate change.
From Robson: But just as one swallow does not make a summer, neither does one iceberg make a climate trend, even a big berg.
Changing Earth
Scientists predict an undersea volcano eruption near Oregon in 2025
Real-time data from Axial Seamount provides a good test case for eruption forecasting
By Rachel Berkowitz, Science News, Dec 27, 2024 [H/t JJ Cvrk]
Link to paper: V22B-03 Axial Seamount has suddenly woken up! An update on the latest inflation and seismic data and a new eruption forecast
By William Chadwick, AGU 24, Dec 10, 2024
https://agu.confex.com/agu/agu24/meetingapp.cgi/Paper/1560361
From the abstract: Based on the current trends, and the assumption that Axial will be primed to erupt when it reaches the 2015 inflation threshold, our current eruption forecast window is between now (July 2024) and the end of 2025. If the rate of inflation and seismicity continue to increase, an eruption may be likely before the end of 2024.
Agriculture Issues & Fear of Famine
Fake News, CNN and UN, Climate Change Is Not Disrupting Latin America’s Food Production
By H. Sterling Burnett, Climate Realism, Jan 30, 2025
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Yellow (Green) Journalism?
How to lose friends and not influence people
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 29, 2025
Thus on Jan. 12 MSN offered up a Canadian Press rant “How a week of weather extremes upended the lives of millions of Americans” that, after blaring “It was a week of fire and ice” beneath one of those classic red-tinted photos of the LA fire, complete with blazing car, blew hotly cold with…[Boldface added]
Or maybe none of it works
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 29, 2025
Canary Media kicks off the new year with a cheery piece “Lots of demand, too little grid: The state of the US power sector”. Which might sound gloomy to people who don’t have both feet firmly planted in the clouds, since it essentially says we couldn’t deliver all the electricity even if we could generate it which we can’t”. But instead to them it’s proof that everything is working in the green energy transition.
You just realized it now?
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 29, 2025
In the New York Times “Climate Forward” columnist David Gelles denounces “The dissonance of climate promises at Davos”.
BBC’s Fake Wildfire Claims
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 31, 2025
Great News from ‘Bloomberg Green’!
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Jan 25, 2025
The article from Bloomberg’s Green Daily, “Trump’s Climate Whiplash, came with the subtitle, “President Donald Trump’s nonstop stream of executive orders this week and what they mean for US climate progress.” The article follows verbatim given Trump’s immediate unmasking of climate alarm and reset from forced energy transformation.
[SEPP Comment: Climate whiplash?]
Communicating Better to the Public – Exaggerate, or be Vague?
Energetic constraints drive the decline of a sentinel polar bear population
By Louise C. Archer, et al., AAAS Science, Jan 30, 2025 [H/t Bernie Kekpshire]
https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adp3752
[SEPP Comment: Does not consider airborne hunting of bears.]
Communicating Better to the Public – Make things up.
Global Warming To Kill Millions In Europe–Telegraph
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 28, 2025
See links immediately below
Projected Increase in Heat-Related Deaths in Europe: Misleading Models and Statistical Fearmongering
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Jan 29, 2025
Link to press release: Extreme heat will kill millions of people in Europe without rapid action
Climate models predict that the number of heat-related deaths could soar in cities over the coming century, even when efforts are made to keep people safe.
By Humberto Basilio, Nature, Jan 27, 2025
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-025-00239-4
Link to paper: Estimating future heat-related and cold-related mortality under climate change, demographic and adaptation scenarios in 854 European cities
By Pierre Masselot, et al., Nature Medicine, Jan 27, 2025
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-024-03452-2
From abstract: In this study, we estimated how climate change could affect future heat-related and cold-related mortality in 854 European urban areas, under several climate, demographic and adaptation scenarios. We showed that, with no adaptation to heat, the increase in heat-related deaths consistently exceeds any decrease in cold-related deaths across all considered scenarios in Europe.
[SEPP Comment: Using flawed models with flawed assumptions to make projections.]
Daily Mail Ramp Up Climate Alarm With More Lies
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 30, 2025
Communicating Better to the Public – Use Propaganda
LA Fires More Likely Because Of Climate Change – Say Attribution Studies
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 29, 2025
In short, the whole World Weather Attribution report is a scam, fabricated to push their agenda, as Dr Friederike Otto, co-lead of World Weather Attribution and senior lecturer in climate science at Imperial College London, made clear:
“In 2025, the choices facing world leaders remain the same – to drill and continue to burn oil, gas and coal and experience ever more dangerous weather, or transition to renewable energy for a safer and fairer world”
It’s Time To Purge The Climate Scam From The Federal Websites
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Jan 28, 2025
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2025-1-28-its-time-to-purge-the-climate-scam-from-the-federal-websites
Earth To Become Too Hot For Humans
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Jan 28, 2025
Link to paper: Future of the human climate niche
By Chi Xu, et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), May 4, 2020
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1910114117
And like clockwork
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 29, 2025
No sooner had fires erupted around Los Angeles than the vultures swooped hissing that it was climate change. Why, you might even get told “Human use of fire has produced an era of uncontrolled burning: Welcome to the Pyrocene”. And when it snowed in Florida, well, the Climate Adaptation Center went “How climate warming contributed to record snow in Florida”, to which Roger Pielke Jr. replied, “like clockwork”.
Climate change worsened likelihood of California wildfires: Report
By Lauren Irwin, The Hill, Jan 28, 2025
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5112330-climate-change-california-wildfires-report
Press Release: Climate change increased the likelihood of wildfire disaster in highly exposed Los Angeles area
By World Weather Attribution (WWA), Jan 25, 2025
https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-increased-the-likelihood-of-wildfire-disaster-in-highly-exposed-los-angeles-area
Link to Paper: Climate change increased the likelihood of wildfire disaster in highly exposed Los Angeles area
By Clair Barnes, et al., (about 25 authors, 7 reviewers), World Weather Attribution (WWA), Jan 28, 2025
From the Main Findings of the paper: To determine the role of climate change in this observed trend we combine the observation-based estimates with climate models. Eight of the eleven models examined also show an increase in extreme January FWI, increasing our confidence that climate change is driving this trend.
[SEPP Comment: If eight out of eleven climate models that fail testing against physical evidence from nature say so, it must be true?]
Doomsday clock ticks closer to catastrophe in dire global warning
By Laura Kelly, The Hill, Jan 28, 2025
https://thehill.com/policy/international/5110546-doomsday-clock-ticks-closer-to-catastrophe-in-dire-global-warning
The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists announced Tuesday they are setting the clock to 89 seconds to midnight, signaling that threats of nuclear war, climate change, and other issues have worsened, as governments have failed to make meaningful change and taken steps to exacerbate these risks.
See link immediately below.
The Doomsday Clock is About to Strike Midnight!
By David Middleton, WUWT, Jan 29, 2025
The notion that we are much closer to Doomsday now than when we were losing the Cold War is clearly the perfect example of “the spread of misinformation, disinformation, and conspiracy theories that degrade the communication ecosystem and increasingly blur the line between truth and falsehood.”
Questioning European Green
The Week after Trump 2.0: EU suddenly realizes they have too many Green rules
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 28, 2025
Link to headline: EU’s new economic vision is speaking to Green Deal critics
A draft document shows Brussels putting deregulation before decarbonization.
By Ziz Weise, Politico, Jan 24, 2025
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-new-economic-vision-is-speaking-to-green-deal-critics-competitiveness-compass
Whitehall ‘predictions’, meet real-world data
By Andrew Montford, Net Zero Watch, Jan 31, 2025
https://www.netzerowatch.com/all-news/whitehall-predictions-meet-real-world-data
The Moray West estimates presented here are extremely crude of course, but I think they are good enough to show that the windfarm’s output is nothing like high enough to justify a claim that its lifetime average will be 61%. In other words, our working assumption – that DESNZ’s figures are grossly overstated – appears to be confirmed. Once again, it seems that policy in Westminster is grounded more in fantasy than in the real world.
Germany May Need Standby Coal Plants for Longer Than Planned
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 27, 2025
Link to article: Germany May Need Standby Coal Plants for Longer Than Planned
By Charles Kennedy, Oil Price.com, Jan 22, 2025
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Germany-May-Need-Standby-Coal-Plants-for-Longer-Than-Planned.html?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
Questioning Green Elsewhere
Trump Truth Bombs ‘Green’ Energy (Five EOs)
By Steve Goreham, Master Resource, Jan 27, 2025
[SEPP Comment: No doubt the Biden clan will be delighted when 1000-foot wind turbines are built within three miles of their beachfront homes. Nothing like viewing a glorious sunrise through spinning turbine blades, particularly if they chop up a flight of pelicans.]
Funding Issues
Thank US voters: Australian pension funds are backing away from climate pledges too
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Jan 30, 2025
Litigation Issues
Legal Appeal: Climate Clowns “did what they did out of sacrifice”
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 31, 2025
Next Up: Humphrey’s Executor
By Francis Menton, Manhattan Contrarian, Jan 31, 2025
https://www.manhattancontrarian.com/blog/2025-1-31-next-up-humphreys-executor
Cap-and-Trade and Carbon Taxes
Environmentalism as Anti-Humanism
By Ethan Redekop, Quadrant, Jan 27, 2025
Environmentalism emphasizes the preservation of the natural world against human pollution and degradation and has pivoted in recent years to emphasize the importance of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate the purportedly disastrous effects of climate change if current trends continue.
[SEPP Comment: The lengthy essay on the Canadian carbon tax starts with a false premise: CO2 is causing environmental degradation. With increases in CO2 the environment is flourishing.]
Subsidies and Mandates Forever
No Panacea for Our Current Grid Dilemma
By Bill Ponton, Real Clear Energy, Jan 29, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/01/29/no_panacea_for_our_current_grid_dilemma_1087993.html
Mandates for renewables have been enacted in both conservative and liberal states, which should remind us that insanity can emerge on both sides of the political divide. For another example of the same, we have ethanol mandates that have enriched conservative farmers in the Midwest for almost five decades.
Constraint Payments Could Hit £6 Billion In 2030
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 26, 2025
British households face costs of up to £3bn a year to pay windfarms and other electricity producers to stop generating when there is too much wind.
EPA and other Regulators on the March
Ousted IG: Trump firings ‘a potentially existential threat’ to government oversight
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Jan 28, 2025
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5111658-ousted-inspector-general-trump-firings-government-oversight-existential-threat
[SEPP Comment: Trump could end government oversight?]
EPA dismisses clean air, science advisory boards
By Zack Budryk, The Hill, Jan 30, 2025
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5116562-trump-administration-dismisses-epa-committees
During President Trump’s first term, his first EPA administrator, Scott Pruitt, dismissed 12 SAB members in 2017. His successor, Andrew Wheeler, appointed eight replacement members the following year — one of whom, John Christy, has been criticized by Columbia Law School’s Sabin Center for Climate Law for contradicting the scientific consensus on climate change.
[SEPP Comment: Contrary to the Sabin Center for Climate Law, John Christy understands that physical science is based on physical evidence, not consensus or law.]
“Draining the Swamp of Climate Hysteria: Trump’s USDA Scrubs Climate Change from Public Websites”
By Charles Rotter, WUWT, Jan 31, 2025
Duffy [Secretary of Transportation] goes after Biden car efficiency rule
By Rachel Frazin, The Hill, Jan 29, 2025
https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5112897-duffy-transportation-biden-fuel-efficiency-rule-epa-trump-ev
DoE Dribbing and Drabbing on LNG “Scandal-pause”
By Staff, Government Accountability & Oversight, Jan 31, 2025
Energy Issues – Non-US
Livestream – Energy Delusions: A Critique of IEA’s Oil Forecasts
By NCEA, National Center for Energy Analytics, Jan 29, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/01/29/livestream__energy_delusions_a_critique_of_ieas_oil_forecasts_1087787.html
Video
Link to website: https://energyanalytics.org/
Mark Mills is the founder of the National Center for Energy Analytics
UK Must Cut Emissions By 64% In Next Ten Years
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 31, 2025
The UK is now officially committed to cutting emissions by 81% from 1990 levels by 2035.
The Government has committed the UK to this new target, without having the faintest idea of how to achieve it.
UK losing wind gamble A warning for world
By Vijay Jayaraj, American Thinker, Jan 28, 2025
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2025/01/uk_losing_wind_gamble_a_warning_for_world.html
British households, on average, pay nearly double the electricity rates of their mostly nuclear-powered French counterparts. This disparity is largely due to British policies that subsidize renewable energy while penalizing more reliable fossil fuel-based generation.
Tidbits
By John Robson, Climate Discussion Nexus, Jan 29, 2025
Canada’s government, somewhat oddly, pays third parties to challenge it in court on Constitutional grounds. The suspicion certainly exists that the real point of this program is to get the courts to order politicians to do things they want to do but voters dislike. And indeed we now learn that this secretive multi-million-dollar “Court Challenges Program” did in fact help fund some of the usual suspects to fight a challenge to the government’s own carbon tax that reached the Supreme Court.
CAN By The Back Door
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 24, 2025
“Ed Miliband Is Isolated Politically!”
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 28, 2025
Video – No solution to the climate crisis without China. High winds force wind turbines to shut down.
Energy Issues — US
Six Things to Know About Your Electric Utility
An insider’s perspective
By Craig Eicher, Via Roger Pielke’s Blog, Jan 30, 2025
https://rogerpielkejr.substack.com/p/six-things-to-know-about-your-electric?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=119454&post_id=156014175&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=f7h7&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
The global demand for energy will continue to rise, and no single technology is the answer. Utilities are compelled to pursue multiple priorities: serving customers reliably at a cost that’s affordable, while building and maintaining increasingly expensive infrastructure and lowering environmental impact. Any policy aimed at pressing on one of those priorities will affect the others, and not always positively.
PJM, Facing Capacity Shortage as Early as 2026/2027 Delivery Year, Agrees to Lower Auction Price Cap
By Sonal Patel, Power Mag, Jan 29, 2025
https://www.powermag.com/pjm-facing-capacity-shortage-as-early-as-2026-2027-delivery-year-agrees-to-lower-auction-price-cap/?utm_source=omeda&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=pwrnews+eletter&oly_enc_id=7809H6412578J0B
PJM Interconnection and Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro have settled a lawsuit over PJM’s capacity market pricing, agreeing to lower the grid operator’s auction price cap from over $500/MW-day to $325/MW-day. The move comes as PJM acknowledges a capacity shortage could affect its system as early as the 2026/2027 delivery year.
[SEPP Comment: How do you compare reliable (dispatchable) capacity with unreliable (non-dispatchable) capacity when the latter is mandated by governments?]
Mine, Baby, Mine!
By Paul Driessen, WUWT, Jan 26, 2025
Western and Alaskan mineral exploration is key to American defense, security and resurgence
Some concerns are certainly valid, others exaggerated, still others reflective of a determination to block mining anywhere in the USA, or even de-develop and de-industrialize America and the West.
‘Free Enterprise Zone’ for Electricity?
By Kennedy Maize, Master Resource, Jan 29, 2025
Reliable Electricity Is at Risk in Connecticut
By Ron Brisé, Real Clear Energy, Jan 29, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/01/29/reliable_electricity_is_at_risk_in_connecticut_1087796.html
In other words, these credit downgrades are in response to a challenging regulatory environment with the Connecticut Public Utilities Regulatory Agency.
Washington’s Control of Energy
Why Trump Needed to Declare a National Energy Emergency
By Brian Morgenstern, Sam Lyman, WUWT, Jan 29, 2025
Trump executive orders halt wind development, declare energy emergency
The orders pause wind lease sales and permitting on federal lands while taking steps to accelerate other forms of energy production.
By Diana DiGangi, Utility Dive, Jan 21, 2025
https://www.utilitydive.com/news/trump-offshore-wind-leasing-permitting-executive-orders-energy/737835
The Only “Energy Emergency” Is the One Biden Created
Trump’s executive order stresses the urgency of undoing his predecessor’s disastrous “whole of government” climate policy.
By Mark P. Mills, City Journal, Jan 24, 2025
https://www.city-journal.org/article/trump-executive-order-energy-emergency-biden-climate
Energy Exceptionalism: Promises Made, Promises Kept (so far, so good)
By Robert Bradley Jr., Master Resource, Jan 28, 2025
End Federally Funded “Net-Zero” Building Codes
By Mark Krebs and Tom Tanton, Master Resource, Jan 30, 2025
As the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) strives to improve government efficiency, we urge them to look carefully at the “target-rich environment” of the Department of Energy’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) with respect to both building and appliance energy efficiency standards.
Trump’s Decision to End Biden’s Home Appliance Micromanagement is Good News for Americans
By Juan Londono, Real Clear Energy, Jan 29, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/01/29/trumps_decision_to_end_bidens_home_appliance_micromanagement_is_good_news_for_americans_1088016.html
Return of King Coal?
Claim: Coal Powered AI Will Consume 20% of Global Energy by 2030
By Eric Worrall, WUWT, Jan 30, 2025
Nuclear Energy and Fears
Spain’s spherical nuclear reactor achieves first plasma with ‘negative triangularity’
Negative triangularity of SMART fusion reactor ensures better suppression of plasma instabilities, reducing damage to tokamak wall.
By Ameya Paleja, Interesting Engineering, Jan 22, 2025 [H/t Bernie Kepshire]
https://interestingengineering.com/energy/smart-fusion-reactor-first-plasma
Link to paper: Performance prediction applying different reduced turbulence models to the SMART tokamak
By D.J. Cruz-Zabala, et al., Nuclear Fusion, Nov 7, 2024
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1741-4326/ad8a70
Constellation Seeking Permit for Small Modular Reactor at Nine Mile Point [New York]
By Darrell Proctor, Power Mag, Jan 16, 2025
https://www.powermag.com/constellation-seeking-permit-for-small-modular-reactor-at-nine-mile-point/?utm_source=omeda&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=pwrnews+eletter&oly_enc_id=7809H6412578J0B
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Solar and Wind
Miliband approves huge solar farm being built by Dale Vince
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 25, 2025
Miliband approves huge solar farm being built by major Labour donor. [Miliband’s party]
Based on current market prices, Vince will earn another £6 million a year in subsidies for this new solar farm.
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Energy — Storage
Eight Ten-Thousandths Of A Degree Per Gigaton
By Willis Eschenbach, WUWT, Jan 31, 2025
They’re proposing that an amount equal to 60% of Canada’s total Federal budget be spent on Direct Air Capture (DAC) each and every year … which will do nothing. Nothing will be produced. No Canadians will be enriched. Nobody will be fed or clothed. Nothing of value will be created.
Alternative, Green (“Clean”) Vehicles
Yet Another Lithium Battery Fire
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 30, 2025
Video A Melbourne warehouse — China urging consumer turn in lithium-ion e-bikes for lead-acid e-bikes! – CO2 bad, hydrogen fluoride (HF) good?
UK Fire Chiefs issue STARK warning on EVs
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 27, 2025
Video
Carbon Schemes
Carbon Capture A Waste Of Money, Says Octopus Boss
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 27, 2025
Octopus Energy is UK’s largest supplier of electricity and second largest supplier of domestic natural gas.
California Dreaming
Sustainability Priorities in the Electricity Industry Are Killing Customers Now
By Lucian Niemeyer, Real Clear Energy, Jan 28, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/01/28/sustainability_priorities_in_the_electricity_industry_are_killing_customers_now_1087794.html
One glimpse of the website and filings for Edison International (EI), the parent company of Southern California Edison named in a lawsuit filed by Los Angeles wildfire victims, reveals the tragic priorities of leadership, Board Members, and investors running a power utility. The commitment to clean energy is highlighted in vision statements and investment priorities. Sustainability programs get equal billing at the top of the website with detailed progress on Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) and Environmental, Social & Governance (ESG) Materiality reports.
Policymakers Should Pursue Stronger Construction to Save Lives, Homes, Long-Term Spending
By Randolph Kirchain, Real Clear Energy, Jan 30, 2025
https://www.realclearenergy.org/articles/2025/01/30/policymakers_should_pursue_stronger_construction_to_save_lives_homes_long-term_spending_1088077.html
[SEPP Comment: The Director of the MIT Concrete Sustainability Hub recommends that concrete homes will protect against fires in Southern California. (Also, they will be cooler on hot summer days.)]
Ten California Water Laws to Scrap
By Edward Ring, What’s Current, Accessed Jan 30, 2025
https://mailchi.mp/calpolicycenter/whats-current-issue-7859796?e=cd9fa89d1e
Bay Delta Plan (San Joaquin River). The oldest and most independent irrigation districts in the State are being forced to dedicate 40 percent of the flow in the San Joaquin River to one species of salmon without any evidence this flow will actually benefit fish returns. The State ignored significant evidence showing these salmon are being eaten by bass introduced into the system by the Department of Water Resources in the 1960s.
[SEPP Comment: An example of dysfunctional California government. An invasive species killing native species, promote the invasive species. Similar to the barred owls replacing spotted owls.]
Other Scientific News
Frank Sprague: America’s Greatest, Least-Known Inventor
Sprague perfected the electric motor, electric streetcar, and electric elevator. In doing so, he changed the world. But he’s almost unknown among American inventors.
By Robert Bryce, His Blog, Jan 29, 2025
https://robertbryce.substack.com/p/frank-sprague-americas-greatest-least?utm_source=post-email-title&publication_id=630873&post_id=155295542&utm_campaign=email-post-title&isFreemail=true&r=f7h7&triedRedirect=true&utm_medium=email
The pioneering work done by Edison, Sprague, Tesla, Westinghouse, Stanley, and others would provide the blueprint for nearly every electric grid that followed. Their innovations set the stage for a wave of electrification that swept the globe and continues to this day.
Other News that May Be of Interest
‘Revolving Door’: Biden’s Ocean Energy Chief Went To Work For Major Offshore Wind Company After Admin Boosted Industry
By Nick Pope, Daily Caller, Jan 30, 2025
https://dailycaller.com/2025/01/30/revolving-door-biden-admin-offshore-wind-company
[SEPP Comment: Should she be condemned as an energy official going to work for an oil company would be?]
BELOW THE BOTTOM LINE
Billionaires Buying Doomed Property
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Jan 27, 2025
Arctic Ice-Free By 2030
By Tony Heller, His Blog, Jan 28, 2025
Sheffield City Council Blame Climate Change For Tree Damage
By Paul Homewood, Not a Lot of People Know That, Jan 29, 2025
Interestingly the Telegraph quotes two scientists who say observations do not back up Sheffield’s claim, but another, Hayley Fowler, who says her modelling showed that climate change is making storms like Eowyn “more frequent, with more intense wind speeds and much higher rainfall amounts”.
Hayley Fowler appears to have spent her whole academic career modelling the climate. It is a sad state affairs for climate science that modelling takes precedence over proper science and actual data.
ARTICLES
1. Europe’s Climate Almost-Epiphany
Brussels all but admits the continent needs a net-zero carbon emissions rethink.
By The Editorial Board, WSJ, Jan. 31, 2025
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/european-union-growth-strategy-economy-climate-ursula-von-der-leyen-558b8168?mod=opinion_lead_pos3
TWTW Summary: The editorial begins with:
“If you didn’t believe in miracles before, maybe it’s time to start. The European Union on Wednesday released a new economic-growth strategy that goes easy on climate-change pieties and focuses instead on more private investment. In Europe, this counts as both a sign and a wonder.
The plan, formally the Competitiveness Compass for the EU, is Brussels’s attempt to meet economic challenges from the U.S. and China while assuaging European voters worried about stagnating economic growth. One of the flashier proposals is to rethink the EU’s electric-vehicle mandate, which currently requires all new cars and vans to be zero-emissions by 2035.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, whose brainchild this report is, hints at some new flexibility in the intermediate targets that already are taking effect. She suggests the rule could change to be technology-neutral—meaning it won’t mandate battery cars.”
The editorial compares what the EU is proposing with the Trump Administration, then concludes with:
“Brussels also promises a big green regulatory simplification. Ms. von der Leyen wants to reduce by 25% the cost of filling in EU-mandated paperwork and other administrative hassles for businesses, and to cut that cost by 35% for small businesses. In the cross-hairs are recent EU rules requiring companies to report on carbon emissions and other environmental effects along their global supply chains. Better late than never to admit this is an investment and jobs killer.
A European growth plan is still European, so there’s some dubious industrial policy. That includes diverting cash from public-works projects to industrial research, and a dollop of trade protectionism, especially against Chinese EVs and foreign steel. But there are surprising moments of insight. Brussels wants to reform financial regulations to make it easier for Europeans to invest in growing companies as Americans can via U.S. capital markets.
That was among the most important ideas former Italian Prime Minister Mario Draghi included in his report on Europe’s lagging competitiveness last year. Most officials and commentators at the time focused on what they interpreted as his call for €800 billion in extra government spending, so it’s a relief to see someone read the rest of his report about deregulation.
Ms. von der Leyen’s ‘compass’ is far from a one-stop solution to all Europe’s economic problems. But it’s the closest Brussels has come to admitting that Europe’s climate fixations are killing prosperity. If this augurs the start of bigger rethinks to come, perhaps the continent’s decline isn’t inexorable.” [Boldface added]
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