Skeptical Science New Research for Week #20 2026
Posted on 14 May 2026 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
The Perils of Climate Catastrophism: A Call to Situate Crisis and Change, Bickerstaff, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change
Catastrophic imaginaries are inextricably bound to how we think about climate change and also how we respond—individually and collectively—to the urgent challenges of achieving rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. This advanced review reflects on, and problematises, the power and persistence of ideas about climate catastrophe. It is argued that this politically and culturally dominant framing of imminent planetary devastation impedes and constrains action on climate change. It is a position that underlines, I suggest, a need to rethink and better situate our narratives of, and relations to, climate crisis and emergency. I pursue this argument in four parts. First, I begin by introducing and theoretically contextualizing “environmental catastrophism”. Second, and following on, I address the ways in which the problem of climate change has become synonymous with imaginaries of apocalyptic catastrophism, tracing dominant tropes and discourses. In the third step I raise interconnected perils of the catastrophic gaze for climate action: the impossibility of solving a problem framed as a predominantly totalising whole-planet challenge; defeatism that displaces action to “total” and/or depoliticising solutions; and public despair around, and alienation from, climate action. Finally, and in response to these challenges, I make the case for a situated view of climate crisis and change—one that offers and embraces imaginaries that are fundamentally partial, located and positioned.
Unseen but increasing: recent changes in risk of extreme precipitation over Southern Africa and Southeast Asia, Perez et al., Weather and Climate Extremes
There is evidence that rainfall extremes have become more intense and frequent over the last few decades, but it is difficult to assess these changes due to the limitations of our short observational records. We use the UNprecedented Simulated Extreme ENsemble (UNSEEN) approach to (1) assess changes in extreme rainfall over Southern Africa and Southeast Asia over the last 40 years and (2) identify locations that have a high chance of breaking rainfall records. We find that extreme rainfall risk has already increased since 1981 during the rainy season in both regions, including a doubling of risk in some months for many major population centers such as Phnom Penh, Vientiane, Bangkok, Hanoi, Maseru, Johannesburg, Lilongwe, and Lusaka. The pattern of increasing risk of extreme rainfall is projected to increase further in the coming 20 years in the CMIP6 ensemble; yet UNSEEN estimates of changes from the last 20 years are already greater than these future projections in the Philippines, northern Mozambique, and northern Madagascar. Finally, we compare the UNSEEN ensemble to historical records to identify places that have “soft records” and are likely to see record-setting events. These places with increasing risks but no recent extremes are labeled as “sitting ducks” in today’s climate. We find that much of Mozambique, the Philippines, and Laos would be considered “sitting ducks” for extreme precipitation in at least one month of the year. Disaster risk managers should use these types of large ensembles when estimating the risk of extremes in today’s climate, in order to ensure that society is prepared for record breaking events. This approach can also be used for improving engineering design estimates of rainfall return periods and for stress-testing health system and disaster preparedness.
Facilitating permanent carbon storage through risk transfers? Analyzing the insurability of the carbon leakage liability, Spencer et al., Energy Research & Social Science
Geological storage of CO2 is expected to play a role in mitigating climate change, especially for carbon capture and storage (CCS) in hard-to-electrify sectors, and for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) under net-zero targets. One challenge of geological CO2 storage is the risk that CO2 later returns to the atmosphere. Policymakers aim to address this risk by imposing leakage liabilities on storage operators, potentially also mandating insurance cover. However, whether such liabilities are insurable is still open given the undeveloped state of the insurance market for this risk. Here, we adapt the Berliner (1982) framework from insurance economics to this question, to consider actuarial, market, and social factors that might constitute barriers to insurability. Due to the lack of a loss history, we systematically use the upstream oil & gas industry as an analogy. Combining expert workshops and techno-economic estimates, we find two barriers: the possibility of correlated material failures across the industry and gradual leakages, which will likely have to remain uninsured initially (though increased experience will likely improve the situation). We also find three general preconditions for insurability: appropriate care in site selection, robust regulations for information sharing and risk mitigation, and limited coverage periods to exclude CO2 price volatility. Overall, the insurability of CO2 leakage does not appear to be a roadblock for the deployment of CCS and CDR. The future price of CO2 emissions and removals, however, remains an important uncertainty. ‘In-kind’ insurances (based on reserve CO2 units) are a possible way out.
Dust Decline Amplifies High-Cloud Ice-to-Liquid Transition and Buffers the Radiative Feedback Under Warming, Wang et al., Geophysical Research Letters
The response of the cloud phase to global warming is a critical yet poorly constrained component of Earth’s climate sensitivity. While rising temperatures drive a thermodynamic transition from ice to liquid clouds, the role of ice-nucleating particles in modulating this shift remains underexplored. Here, we provide evidence that the declining trend of mineral dust in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) may act as a microphysical amplifier of this transition. Satellite observations of high clouds (
Opposing transient and equilibrium effective radiative forcing from aerosol-cloud interactions, Dagan, Nature Communications
Aerosols influence clouds, and therefore Earth’s radiation budget, through processes that operate across multiple and interacting time scales, making aerosol-cloud interactions (ACI) a persistent source of uncertainty in estimates of effective radiative forcing (ERF). Here we examine the time-dependent response of the local, convection-focused ERFACI using an ensemble of high-resolution simulations initialized from different atmospheric states and subjected to an instantaneous aerosol perturbation, together with simulations in which aerosol concentration changes with prescribed periods. We find that the transient ERFACI during the first ~ 2 days is positive, driven by rapid microphysical invigoration, enhanced high-cloud fraction, and increased longwave trapping. In contrast, the equilibrium ERFACI becomes negative as upper-tropospheric warming increases static stability and reduces anvil cloud fraction. As a result, the time-mean forcing depends on the ratio between the environmental adjustment time scale (τadj) and the aerosol-perturbation time scale (τaer). For intermediate regimes, where τaer is only moderately longer than τadj, the system exhibits pronounced hysteresis: ERFACI depends not only on the instantaneous aerosol loading but also on its recent history. These results imply that snapshot-based observational constraints and near-instantaneous-equilibrium convective parameterizations may systematically misestimate ERFACI.
From this week’s government/NGO section:
Pedal to the Metal 2026. The iron and steel industry’s coal lock-in crisis, Grigsby-Schulte et al., Global Energy Monitor
The authors present the newest annual survey of the current and developing global iron and steel plant fleet. The authors examine the status of the iron and steel sector compared to global decarbonization roadmaps and corporate and country-level net-zero pledges. Included in the survey are asset-level data on 1,293 iron and steel plants in 91 countries and nearly 700 operating and proposed mines worldwide. A closing window for transition With 2030 decarbonization deadlines approaching, the global iron and steel industry is running out of time to shift away from coal-based production methods. Continued investment in coal-based capacity and underinvestment in green hydrogen threaten net-zero targets. Now more than ever, it is crucial to disrupt emissions-intensive blast furnace developments and redirect resources to iron and steelmaking technologies that align with net-zero goals.
Trust, Governance, and Climate Disasters in the Indo-Pacific, Sohail Akhtar, Toda Peace Institute
The author argues that climate emergencies generate epistemic stress: situations in which uncertainty and competing narratives disrupt shared understandings of risk and appropriate response. Drawing on recent bushfire events and subsequent reviews of disaster governance in Australia, the author shows how disagreements over climate attribution, institutional readiness, and political accountability can complicate emergency coordination and weaken public trust even where operational capacity remains strong. The author concludes with policy recommendations for Indo-Pacific governments, regional organizations, and international partners aimed at strengthening crisis communication, institutional credibility, and the capacity of democratic systems to manage contested knowledge during climate emergencies.
129 articles in 63 journals by 1077 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Changes in Wind Extremes Shaped the Summertime Weakening of the Eurasian Subtropical Westerly Jet, Li et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd045904
Critical role of low cloud feedback in irreversible sea level rise, Wang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-72898-4
Impact of the AMOC Weakening on Upper Troposphere/Lower Stratosphere Warming Over the Extratropical North Pacific, Joshi & Zhang, Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl122116
Stratospheric cooling and amplification of radiative forcing with rising carbon dioxide, Cohen et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-026-01965-8
The Role of Internal Variability in Springtime Arctic Amplification from 1980 to 2022, Gale et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0421.1
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Arctic amplification-induced intensification of planetary wave modulational instability: A simplified theory of enhanced large-scale waviness, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 10.1002/qj.4740 19 cites.
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Observations of climate change, effects
Equatorward shift of marine heatwaves centroids in the Atlantic Ocean, Ji et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access 10.1038/s41612-026-01426-4
State of polar climate (2025), Ding et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2024.08.004
Unprecedented 2025 glacier mass loss in Pamir, Fan et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.04.018
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Human-induced intensified seasonal cycle of sea surface temperature, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-48381-3 36 cites.
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Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
A Climatology of Heat Domes Over North America, Loikith et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100913
Four decades of global surface albedo estimates in the third edition of the CLARA climate data record, Riihelä et al., Earth system science data Open Access 10.5194/essd-16-1007-2024
The DLR CO2-equivalent estimator FlightClim v1.0: an easy-to-use estimation of per flight CO2 and non-CO2 climate effects, Bruder et al., elib (German Aerospace Center) pmh:oai:elib.dlr.de:217602
Unseen but increasing: recent changes in risk of extreme precipitation over Southern Africa and Southeast Asia, Perez et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100910
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Exploring the spatial and temporal changes of compound disasters: A case study in Gaoping River, Taiwan, Climate Risk Management, 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100617 4 cites.
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Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Asymmetric Spring–Summer Responses of Interannual Dry–Wet Transitions in Eastern Asia and North America Under Global Warming, Yang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl122510
Joint Risk Assessment of Humid Heatwave-Heavy Precipitation Compound Events in East China During the Late 21st Century, Yu et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70395
Levante and poniente winds in the Strait of Gibraltar: Present and future characterization using regional climate models, Ortega et al., Atmospheric Research 10.1016/j.atmosres.2026.109071
Observed and Projected Future Changes in Climate and Extremes in a Himalayan Watershed Based on CMIP6 Model Outputs, Phuyal et al., Journal of Hydrometeorology 10.1175/jhm-d-25-0175.1
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Projections of temperature and precipitation trends using CMhyd under CMIP6 scenarios: A case study of Iraq’s Middle and West, Atmospheric Research, 10.1016/j.atmosres.2024.107470 31 cites.
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Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
Baseline Climate Variables for Earth System Modelling, Juckes et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-18-2639-2025
Conditional diffusion models for downscaling and bias correction of Earth system model precipitation, Aich et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access pdf 10.5194/gmd-19-1791-2026
Integrating climate model ensembles for reliable regional drought assessment through redundancy control, Abbas et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 10.1002/qj.70211
Modeling snowpack dynamics and surface energy budget in boreal and subarctic peatlands and forests, Nousu et al., cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-18-231-2024
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Systematic and objective evaluation of Earth system models: PCMDI Metrics Package (PMP) version 3, Geoscientific model development, 10.5194/gmd-17-3919-2024 30 cites.
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Cryosphere & climate change
A comprehensive database of thawing permafrost locations across Alaska: version 2.0.0, Webb et al., Earth system science data Open Access pdf 10.5194/essd-18-3147-2026
Acceleration of an Antarctic outlet glacier driven by surface meltwater input to the base, Sugiyama et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-72724-x
Compound drivers of Antarctic sea ice loss and Southern Ocean destratification, Narayanan et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aeb0166
Decadal re-forecasts of glacier climatic mass balance, Laan et al., Leibniz Universität Hannover Open Access 10.15488/20255
Glacier surge activity over Svalbard from 1992 to 2025 interpreted using heritage satellite radar missions and Sentinel-1, Strozzi et al., cryosphere Open Access 10.5194/tc-20-1679-2026
Glacier velocity as a primary control on areal retreat and surface thinning across the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and its surrounding regions, Guo et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105528
Ice core reveals longest-ever continuous record of Earth’s climate, Castelvecchi, Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-01523-7
Quantifying Asymmetries in the Societal Impact of Mass Loss From the Antarctic and Greenland Ice Sheets, Bolliger et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2024ef005914
The effect of the present-day imbalance on schematic and climate forced simulations of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse, Akker et al., cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-20-1405-2026
Unprecedented 2025 glacier mass loss in Pamir, Fan et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.04.018
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
A Multifaceted Look at Garhwal Himalayan Glaciers: Quantifying Area Change, Retreat, and Mass Balance, and Its Controlling Parameters, Environment Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-024-04917-7 6 cites.
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Sea level & climate change
Critical role of low cloud feedback in irreversible sea level rise, Wang et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-72898-4
Quantifying the Sea Level and Estuary Contributions to Changing High Water Levels in Four Major Australian Estuaries, Palmer et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef006175
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Storm surges and extreme sea levels: Review, establishment of model intercomparison and coordination of surge climate projection efforts (SurgeMIP)., Weather and Climate Extremes, 10.1016/j.wace.2024.100689 39 cites.
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Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Impact of the temperature-cloud phase relationship on the simulated Arctic warming during the Last Interglacial, Arima et al., Climate of the past Open Access 10.5194/cp-22-891-2026
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Changes in monsoon precipitation in East Asia under a 2°C interglacial warming, Science Advances, 10.1126/sciadv.adm7694 26 cites.
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Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
Autonomous Float Data Reveal Decoupled Trends in Chlorophyll and Stratification in the Indian Ocean, Ishaque et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2025jc023417
Biogeochemistry of climate driven shifts in Southern Ocean primary producers, Fisher et al., Biogeosciences Open Access pdf 10.5194/bg-22-975-2025
Climate-driven degradation of marine foraging habitats for Adélie penguins in the Antarctic Peninsula, Liu et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105518
Climate-induced range shifts support local plant diversity but don’t reduce extinction risk, Wang et al., Science 10.1126/science.aea1676
Current and Future Potential Distribution of the Invasive Thrips Echinothrips americanus (Terebrantia: Thripidae) Under Global Climate Change, QingLing et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.73636
Deforestation-induced drying lowers Amazon climate threshold, Wunderling et al., Nature Open Access 10.1038/s41586-026-10456-0
Evaluating the protection status and exposure to warming of Caribbean reefs with high functional potential, Melo?Merino et al., Conservation Biology Open Access 10.1111/cobi.70302
Flash drought-driven forest gross primary productivity declines in China amplified by extreme heat, Sun et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105515
Forest tree fecundity declines as climate shifts, Foest et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02638-5
Future Drought Will Lead to a Decrease in Vegetation Resilience in China, Jiang et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef007070
Increasing Mortality of Rare Tree Species Amplifies Extinction Risk in Tropical Forests Under Climate Change, He et al., Global Ecology and Biogeography 10.1111/geb.70235
Loss of competitive strength in European conifer species under climate change, Grünig et al., bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) Open Access 10.64898/2026.02.13.705703
Reorganization of Subtropical Phytoplankton Communities in the Warming Ocean, Xin et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans 10.1029/2025jc022734
Scientists’ warning on the global destruction of rock outcrop ecosystems, Paula et al., Conservation Biology Open Access 10.1111/cobi.70316
Ten Strategies to Promote Climate Resilience and Sustainability of Global Forests, Wang et al., Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.70064
Variations in the temperature response of photosynthesis among nine common tree species planted in Singapore, Teo et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2026.1738900
Vegetation responses to air dryness amplify future land surface warming, Green et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-73063-7
Vulnerability and Adaptations to Climate Change in EU Protected Areas: A Natura 2000 Managers’ perspective, Zavattoni et al., bioRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory) Open Access pdf 10.64898/2025.12.19.695111
Warming-driven shifts in floral traits generate flower–pollinator size mismatch and decrease reproductive output, Dong et al., Ecology 10.1002/ecy.70368
Water-Regulated Carbon Cost–Benefit Drives Divergent Effective Rooting Depth Across the Greening Loess Plateau, Su et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl122356
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Rapid climate change increases diversity and homogenizes composition of coastal fish at high latitudes, Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.17273 14 cites.
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GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
A Comprehensive Global Aquatic N2O Emission Database (GANED): Unravelling N2O Emission Patterns from Different Water Bodies, Nazir et al., Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) Open Access 10.5281/zenodo.18442133
Carbon sequestration service in the Atlantic Ocean: an assessment from coastal to ocean ecosystems, Zunino et al., Earth-Science Reviews 10.1016/j.earscirev.2026.105536
Evolution and drivers of CO2 and carbon intensity in Malaysia, Su et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115364
Global methane emissions rebounded in 2024 despite a deceleration in atmospheric growth, Wang et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-72764-3
Integrated climate effects on nitrogen cycles in global grasslands, Zheng et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aec5940
Microbial Controls on Carbon Pump Partitioning in the Subtropical North Atlantic: Stoichiometry and Nutrient Limitation Across a Basin-Scale Transect, Marx et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2025jc023638
Sentinel-5p Reveals Unexplained Large Wildfire Carbon Emissions in the Amazon in 2024, Laat et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl115123
Stronger Southern Ocean Anthropogenic Carbon Uptake in Eddying Ocean Simulations, Patara et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-25-0198.1
The increasing impact of vegetation productivity on global wetland methane emissions, Wang et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105523
White Is a New Shade of Blue Carbon: A Case Study of a Traditional Salt Production Pond That is a Net Carbon Sink, Alexandre et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences Open Access 10.1029/2025jg009016
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Global nitrous oxide emissions from livestock manure during 1890–2020: An IPCC tier 2 inventory, Global Change Biology, 10.1111/gcb.17303 19 cites.
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CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
Facilitating permanent carbon storage through risk transfers? Analyzing the insurability of the carbon leakage liability, Spencer et al., Energy Research & Social Science Open Access 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104746
On the Efficiency and Durability of Purposefully Sinking Seaweed Biomass as a Marine Carbon Dioxide Removal Strategy, Sten et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef007628
Short-term action is key for gigaton-scale Direct Air Capture by 2050, Zurbriggen et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-72691-3
The state of macroalgae carbon dioxide removal: insights from a methodology development team, III et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2026.1761760
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Modeling direct air carbon capture and storage in a 1.5 °C climate future using historical analogs, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2215679121 37 cites.
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Decarbonization
Carbon-neutral Powertrains – Research into Non-fossil Energy Sources and Life Cycle Analyses, Tutsch, MTZ worldwide 10.1007/s38313-026-2194-y
EV-ready building codes and electric vehicle adoption, Lou & Niemeier, Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-72664-6
Offshore wind farms reshape ocean stratification and productivity differently in the North Sea and the Baltic Sea, Maar et al., npj Ocean Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1038/s44183-026-00202-4
Potential and challenges for CDR in the European pulp and paper sector, Jordal et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1834276
Sustainable EV adoption with clustering and predictive modelling for optimal charging infrastructure in the West Midlands and North East UK, Cavus et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-43106-6
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The roll-to-roll revolution to tackle the industrial leap for perovskite solar cells, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-48518-4 70 cites.
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Geoengineering climate
A Climate Intervention Dynamical Emulator (CIDER) for scenario space exploration, Farley et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-19-1809-2026
Assessing the impact of solar climate intervention on future U.S. weather using a convection-permitting WRF model, Sun et al., Geoscientific model development Open Access 10.5194/gmd-19-2239-2026
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Opinion: A research roadmap for exploring atmospheric methane removal via iron salt aerosol, Atmospheric chemistry and physics, 10.5194/acp-24-5659-2024 9 cites.
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Aerosols
Dust Decline Amplifies High-Cloud Ice-to-Liquid Transition and Buffers the Radiative Feedback Under Warming, Wang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl121917
Effects of climate change on desert dust, Middleton & Goudie, Earth-Science Reviews 10.1016/j.earscirev.2026.105540
Nitric Oxide Radiative Relaxation Time: Damping Timescales of Lower Thermospheric Thermal Perturbations, Wang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl117874
Opposing transient and equilibrium effective radiative forcing from aerosol-cloud interactions, Dagan, Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-72896-6
Strong global radiative effects from wildfire dark brown carbon, Xu et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-026-01972-9
Climate change communications & cognition
A technocognitive approach to detecting fallacies in climate misinformation, Zanartu et al., Scientific Reports Open Access 10.1038/s41598-024-76139-w
Climate Creativity for Action: Conceptual Development and the Catalytic Effect of Hope., Spence & Burge, Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.103075
Scientists as activists: An ethnography of the ‘critical moments’ in scientists’ transition to climate activism, Finnerty, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000828
The Perils of Climate Catastrophism: A Call to Situate Crisis and Change, Bickerstaff, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change Open Access 10.1002/wcc.70062
The psychology of real-world collective climate action: A mixed-methods approach, Brouër et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.103072
When Climate Anxiety Motivates Versus Paralyzes: A Conceptual Replication of the Inverted U-Shaped Relationship between Climate Anxiety and Pro-Environmental Behavior, Dijk et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.103069
When Trust Is Good and Worrying Is Even Better. Trust in Science and Climate Change Specific Worries Are Linked to Policy Support and Pro-Environmental Behaviours., Nitschke et al., Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.103042
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Setting the agenda for climate assemblies. Trade-offs and guiding principles, Climate Policy, 10.1080/14693062.2024.2349824 15 cites.
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Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Climate and ecological constraints of cultivating bioenergy crops for climate mitigation in tropical regions, Navarro et al., PNAS Nexus Open Access 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgag123
Climate vulnerability and adaptation pathways among smallholder sheep farmers in the Drakensberg Grasslands of South Africa, Slayi et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2026.1785998
Decarbonizing desert greenhouse crop production with direct air capture–based CO2 enrichment, Lopez-Reyes et al., npj Sustainable Agriculture Open Access 10.1038/s44264-026-00149-6
Engineering resilient food systems in a warming world, Woodrow, Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-01250-z
Financial accounting of carbon forestry with data from Florida, Kärenlampi, Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2026.1738771
Interdependent adoption of climate change adaptation strategies among rice farmers in northwest Bangladesh, Islam et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-51096-8
Renewable energy installation as a catalyst for sustainable and climate-resilient agricultural growth in Kenya, Masibayi et al., Energy Policy 10.1016/j.enpol.2026.115371
Scientists breed low-emission rice to fight climate change, You, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02614-z
Thermal limits of estuarine amphipods and their implications for aquaculture production, Rodrigues et al., Marine Environmental Research Open Access 10.1016/j.marenvres.2026.108109
Warming winters and cultivar resilience in sweet cherry: agroclimatic requirements and future suitability under Mediterranean-continental conditions, Santolaria et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111138
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Organic food has lower environmental impacts per area unit and similar climate impacts per mass unit compared to conventional, Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-024-01415-6 27 cites.
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Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Assessing the Role of Tropical Cyclones on Drought Characteristics in the Hurricane Region of the Americas Between 1983 and 2024, Herrera et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres Open Access 10.1029/2025jd045998
Climate Change Amplifies Rainfall Sensitivity to Deforestation in the Southern Amazon, Zhang et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl119000
Dealing with water extremes: An exploration of conditions for transformative adaptation, Pahl?Wostl, Global Environmental Change Open Access 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2026.103163
Dynamics and risk assessment of water conservation in a high-mountain river basin under climate change, Chai et al., Global and Planetary Change 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2026.105527
From opinion to action: Impact of social networks and information policy on private adaptation to floods, Wagenblast et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104393
Global irrigation reservoirs are at a higher risk of water shortages, Shah et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03571-3
Global Vegetation Greening Is Exacerbating Soil Dryness, Qu et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70901
Joint Risk Assessment of Humid Heatwave-Heavy Precipitation Compound Events in East China During the Late 21st Century, Yu et al., International Journal of Climatology 10.1002/joc.70395
Unseen but increasing: recent changes in risk of extreme precipitation over Southern Africa and Southeast Asia, Perez et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100910
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
California’s 2023 snow deluge: Contextualizing an extreme snow year against future climate change, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 10.1073/pnas.2320600121 18 cites.
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Climate change economics
Fixing carbon credits requires a new financing model, Probst & Egli, PNAS Nexus Open Access 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgag117
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Tackling debt, biodiversity loss, and climate change, Science, 10.1126/science.ado7418 10 cites.
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Climate change mitigation public policy research
Carbon markets rule change would harm mitigation and Indigenous peoples, Williamson et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02629-6
Climate governance overlooks the ocean: a structural limitation exposed at COP30, García-Soto, npj Ocean Sustainability Open Access pdf 10.1038/s44183-026-00206-0
Evaluative governance for climate action in Australia, Kotarba-Morley et al., Nature Sustainability 10.1038/s41893-026-01814-x
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Are consumers ready to adopt electric vehicles? Analyzing the barriers and motivators associated with electric vehicle adoption in India: Policy implications for various stakeholders, Energy Policy, 10.1016/j.enpol.2024.114173 34 cites.
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Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
American cities in a time of global environmental change: the case of the Baltimore Social-Environmental Collaborative, Zaitchik et al., Environmental Research Infrastructure and Sustainability Open Access 10.1088/2634-4505/ae636e
Assessing vulnerability and risk of coastal settlements in The Gambia to windstorms: integrating socioeconomic and environmental dimensions, Dibba, Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1741665
Climate resilience in Indian smart cities: Linking dry–hot extremes and urban vulnerability for sustainability, Sahu et al., Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102922
Digital climate education for rural resilience: validation and effectiveness of an e-learning module for farmers in flood- and cyclone-prone regions of India, Gorai et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2026.1756972
From opinion to action: Impact of social networks and information policy on private adaptation to floods, Wagenblast et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104393
From the Mediterranean to the Arctic: the climate change approaches of Mersin and Tromsø municipalities, Da??d?r, Euro-Mediterranean Journal for Environmental Integration 10.1007/s41207-026-01155-3
The climate justice implementation gap: are urban health and planning workforces trained for equitable climate adaptation?, Acuña-Rodríguez et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1827634
The importance of recognizing opportunities in climate change impacts, Carter, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02626-9
Trees halve urban heat island effect globally but unequal benefits only modestly mitigate climate-change warming, McDonald et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-71825-x
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Linking the interplay of resilience, vulnerability, and adaptation to long-term changes in metropolitan spaces for climate-related disaster risk management, Climate Risk Management, 10.1016/j.crm.2024.100618 26 cites.
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Climate change impacts on human health
Modelling the impact of climate on cholera: a case study of Kolkata, Shackleton et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-51415-z
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Indian Ocean temperature anomalies predict long-term global dengue trends, Science, 10.1126/science.adj4427 43 cites.
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Climate change & geopolitics
Caribbean small island developing states and the climate change advisory opinions: engagement and potential use, Berry et al., Frontiers in Environmental Science Open Access 10.3389/fenvs.2026.1782320
An analytical assessment of greenhouse gas impacts on HF propagation using the Appleton-Beynon approach, Zossi et al., Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 10.1016/j.jastp.2026.106825
Evidence of hydrological regime shifts associated with a major decades-long drought in West Africa, Peugeot et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-72648-6
Scientists as activists: An ethnography of the ‘critical moments’ in scientists’ transition to climate activism, Finnerty, PLOS Climate Open Access 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000828
Socioeconomic Disparities in Climate Change-Induced Compound Energy Droughts in China, Wang et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef007598
World-leading climate centre takes Trump administration to court, Witze, Nature 10.1038/d41586-026-01501-z
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
The future of plant extinction, McChesney et al., Phytochemistry 10.1016/j.phytochem.2007.04.032
The Paradox of Climate Justice, Isenhour, Local Environment 10.1080/13549839.2012.729570
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Just urban transitions: Toward a research agenda, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, 10.1002/wcc.640 165 cites.
Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
24/7 renewables: The economics of firm solar and wind, Dardour et al., International Renewable Energy Agency
The authors’ analysis shows that the cost of firm renewable electricity has declined rapidly across all major technologies and markets. In high-quality solar and wind resource regions, co-located hybrid systems can already deliver round-the-clock electricity at costs competitive with – and in many cases below – those of new fossil-fuel generation. China currently defines the global cost floor, while costs in Brazil, India, South Africa, Australia, and the Gulf region are declining rapidly towards fossil-fuel cost parity. The authors identify key drivers of firm renewable costs – technology performance, resource quality and system configuration – and examine the policy levers that are proving decisive in translating cost competitiveness into deployment at scale. They conclude that the technologies are maturing, the costs are falling and the commercial demand is growing. The pace at which firm renewable electricity is deployed will be among the most consequential determinants of the global energy transition in the decade ahead.
For two decades, the PJM region managed its electricity system in an era of relative stability. The Reliability Pricing Model, PJM’s capacity market, was built for that environment: a system with predictable, gradually changing load; a coal-to-gas fuel transition that could be managed over a years-long horizon; and a generation development timeline that aligned with the market’s three-year forward horizon. The PJM region is now navigating a convergence of three structural forces that have pushed the system into disequilibrium: an unprecedented surge in demand driven by the rapid expansion of large-load data centers and broader economy-wide electrification; the accelerated retirement of dispatchable generation due to environmental policy and economics; and significant supply chain and permitting frictions that have extended the time required to bring new resources online. The PJM Board of Managers directed PJM staff to undertake a holistic review of the capacity market design and investment incentives. The Board recognized that the market’s current price volatility – while economically rational – is placing unsustainable stress on the governmental compact that allows the market to function, and that the foundational assumptions of the Reliability Pricing Model design must be reexamined in a resource-constrained world. This white paper is PJM’s response to that directive.
Homegrown Energy: A policy blueprint for energy affordability, Eberhard et al., Rewiring America
A coordinated set of policies can make whole-home electrification, rooftop solar, and battery storage affordable for 96 percent of eligible U.S. households, delivering $26,000 in average lifetime savings per home, or $1.5 trillion nationwide. Home electrification alone is affordable for roughly 40 percent of U.S. households. By reshaping incentives and economics to capture the value of household energy infrastructure, policymakers can shift affordability from 1 in 10 eligible households to more than 9 in 10. The authors identify six market-based policies that lower costs, bring in new capital, and ensure households are paid for the value they provide; reduce soft costs; require large new energy users to invest in distributed resources; enable inclusive utility investment; modernize rate design; redirecting gas infrastructure investment; and scale virtual power plants.
Distributed Energy Can Unleash the Resilient, Affordable Grid of the Future, Lightbody et al., Pew Charitable Trusts
Distributed energy resources (DERs)—energy generation and storage technologies including rooftop solar, battery storage, smart appliances, and “managed” electric vehicle charging, which involves controlling when EVs are charged to account for demand on the grid—offer a low-cost, readily available, scalable solution to increased demand. To help address this demand, the authors identified three core DER policy goals and specific recommendations that can help decision-makers, including state elected officials and public utility regulators, begin the work of bringing DERs to scale nationwide; integrate DERs as core grid resources into utility planning, investment, and procurement decisions; reduce administrative, technical, and regulatory barriers to allow DERs to be permitted and granted grid access faster and at lower cost; and strengthen community resilience by using DER solutions to improve grid reliability.
Watts Wasting Texas Water. How coal and gas power plants guzzle billions of gallons every year and how we can transition to a more secure water future, Lindsay Stafford Mader, Sierra Club
Texas is facing drought, water shortages, and declining river and stream flows in all reaches of the state. Amid these ongoing water crises, it is important to understand just how much water coal and gas power plants use every year, whereas renewable energy and battery storage barely use any. To determine the enormity of water resources dedicated to Texas power plants, the author analyzed water consumption numbers from the U.S. Energy Information Administration as well as state water rights data.
Water Use Requirements for Data Centers in Texas, COMPASS Research Affiliates Program at the University of Texas at Austin
The authors address the urgent and growing need to understand and quantify the water footprint of data centers, alongside their escalating energy demands. Water has now emerged as a primary constraint in data center planning, particularly in regions vulnerable to drought, water stress, or infrastructure limitations. The adoption of water-intensive cooling systems, such as evaporative and hybrid technologies, while advantageous for energy efficiency, raises concerns over freshwater use and long-term sustainability. The authors position water not as a secondary input, but as a core engineering, environmental, and policy issue in the future of digital infrastructure.
Pipe Dreams: How Oil and Gas Fail to Deliver Economic Development in Africa, Muttitt et al., Oil Change International and Power Shift Africa
As global energy markets are rocked by conflict and geopolitical instability, the authors found that oil and gas production has failed to deliver economic development in Africa’s producing countries and is instead deepening vulnerability, inequality, and dependence. The authors use data from 13 producing countries in Africa and find that decades of extraction have failed to reduce poverty or drive economic growth, and instead are lining the pockets of an elite few.
A New Phase for the U.S. Battery Industry. Policy Considerations to Sustain Momentum, Bridge Gaps, and Avoid Pitfalls, Ray Cai and Jane Nakano, Center for Strategic and International Studies
Drawing on extensive desk research and stakeholder interviews, the authors use their report to inform policy debates through evidence-based analysis of the complex dynamics that are shaping the industry at today’s critical inflection point. The authors focus on three central strategic questions: where are the most critical supply chain vulnerabilities, what should be the approach to international linkages, and how can innovation be aligned with industrialization?
Offshore Wind: Status and Issues for the 119th Congress, Clark et al., Congressional Research Service
The U.S. offshore wind industry has faced economic challenges in recent years that have led to the postponement or cancellation of some projects. Projects also have faced lawsuits from coastal homeowners and preservationists, the fishing industry, tribes, and those concerned about potential impacts to marine wildlife. Recent federal policies toward U.S. offshore wind have shifted from those in place during the Biden Administration. President Trump has halted OCS wind leasing and permitting and directed other actions to reverse prior federal support for offshore wind. Also, in P.L. 119-21, the FY2025 budget reconciliation law, Congress limited offshore wind tax credits and rescinded unobligated balances for federally funded activities related to interregional and offshore wind electricity transmission. Congress continues to consider issues related to offshore wind leasing, permitting, transmission, tax credits, and related matters through oversight and legislation.
Hydrogen Energy: Technologies Offer Potential Benefits but Face Challenges to Widespread Use, Fletcher et al., Government Accountability Office
Hydrogen energy technologies offer long-duration energy storage, increased transportation efficiencies, quiet operation, reduced air polluting emissions, and potentially broad availability. For example, hydrogen fuel cell power generation technologies could provide quiet, clean backup power to data centers and other large-scale operations during power outages. These generation technologies could increase overall electricity grid security by providing long-duration energy storage. Currently, hydrogen fuel cells provide about 0.03 percent of utility-scale electricity generation.
Trust, Governance, and Climate Disasters in the Indo-Pacific, Sohail Akhtar, Toda Peace Institute
The author argues that climate emergencies generate epistemic stress: situations in which uncertainty and competing narratives disrupt shared understandings of risk and appropriate response. Drawing on recent bushfire events and subsequent reviews of disaster governance in Australia, the author shows how disagreements over climate attribution, institutional readiness, and political accountability can complicate emergency coordination and weaken public trust even where operational capacity remains strong. The author concludes with policy recommendations for Indo-Pacific governments, regional organizations, and international partners aimed at strengthening crisis communication, institutional credibility, and the capacity of democratic systems to manage contested knowledge during climate emergencies.
Taiwan’s Climate Adaptation Leadership in the Caribbean: Technology, Capacity, and Strategic Cooperation, Hernandez-Roy et al., Center for Strategic and International Studies
Climate change represents an existential threat for Caribbean Small Island Developing States (SIDS), where exposure to extreme climate events intersects with structural economic vulnerabilities, limited fiscal capacity, and high economic dependence on climate-sensitive sectors. As Caribbean states seek technical expertise in climate adaptation strategies such as water resilience, disaster preparedness, and agricultural security, Taiwan—itself an island—could be a natural partner with which to collaborate on innovative and impactful projects.
Pedal to the Metal 2026. The iron and steel industry’s coal lock-in crisis, Grigsby-Schulte et al., Global Energy Monitor
The authors present the newest annual survey of the current and developing global iron and steel plant fleet. The authors examine the status of the iron and steel sector compared to global decarbonization roadmaps and corporate and country-level net-zero pledges. Included in the survey are asset-level data on 1,293 iron and steel plants in 91 countries and nearly 700 operating and proposed mines worldwide. A closing window for transition With 2030 decarbonization deadlines approaching, the global iron and steel industry is running out of time to shift away from coal-based production methods. Continued investment in coal-based capacity and underinvestment in green hydrogen threaten net-zero targets. Now more than ever, it is crucial to disrupt emissions-intensive blast furnace developments and redirect resources to iron and steelmaking technologies that align with net-zero goals
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