Skeptical Science New Research for Week #21 2026
Posted on 21 May 2026 by Doug Bostrom, Marc Kodack
Open access notables
Attribution of UK Temperature Changes to Anthropogenic and Natural Factors, Amos et al., Atmospheric Science Letters
Understanding the extent to which human activities have influenced regional climate is a key scientific and policy challenge. The UK is one of the world’s best observed regions climatically, with a long and reliable temperature record that makes it an important test case for regional detection and attribution. Here, for the first time, we apply optimal fingerprinting to UK mean 2-m air temperature changes using the Estimating Equations method, HadUK-Grid observations, and CMIP6 simulations. We assess the extent to which observed UK temperature changes can be explained by natural internal variability, anthropogenic forcings, and natural external forcings. We detect a significant anthropogenic influence on warming in recent decades and identify greenhouse gases as the main driver. We also detect a cooling contribution from other anthropogenic influences in the mid-twentieth century, likely dominated by sulphate aerosols. These results update earlier UK-focused work and demonstrate that human influences, both warming and cooling, are detectable even at the national scale.
Sustained deoxygenation in global flowing waters under climate warming, Guan et al., Science Advances
Dissolved oxygen (DO), as a vital material sustaining aquatic ecosystems, has declined markedly in oceans, lakes, and coastal waters, yet unbiased understandings of changing DO concentrations in each individual river segment globally remain a challenge. Here, we estimate DO concentrations in 21,439 rivers globally between 1985 and 2023, based on Landsat observations and climatic data, and examine their patterns and trends. We find sustained deoxygenation in global rivers, at a rate of −0.045 mg liter−1 decade−1, with 78.8% experiencing fluvial deoxygenation, driven mainly by oxygen solubility and temperature. Moreover, short-term heatwaves and dam impoundment exert non-neglecting influence on these changes. Future projections demonstrate that global fluvial DO concentrations decline by 1.1% ± 1.6% under SSP1–2.6 and 4.7% ± 2.7% under SSP5–8.5 throughout the 21st century. Our study provides an unbiased baseline for escalating deoxygenation in global fluvial ecosystems that underscores targeted measures to mitigate deoxygenation threats and protect ecosystem health.
Emergent constraints on future methane emissions from global wetlands, Zhang et al., Nature Geoscience
Future methane (CH4) emissions from natural wetlands are predicted to increase due to global warming, leading to positive feedback on climate change. However, the magnitude of this increase remains highly uncertain. Here we present novel ensemble simulations of seven state-of-the-art terrestrial biosphere models to estimate wetland CH4 emissions (eCH4) during the twenty-first century. Our estimates suggest that for every 1 °C increase in global land surface temperature, there is a 24 ± 10 Tg CH4 yr−1 increase in eCH4. We also identify an emergent relationship between contemporary temperature dependence and projected eCH4. When constrained by 163 site-year eddy-covariance measurements of eCH4, we show that wetland emissions can increase by 50–60% by the 2090s relative to the 2010s under a high-warming scenario. The projected decadal increase in eCH4 from the 2010–2019 baseline to the 2030s would very likely (90% probability) offset an amount equivalent in scale to 8–10% of anthropogenic eCH4 at the 2020 level, comparable to the reductions committed under the Global Methane Pledge. However, the constraint is dominated by mid- and high-latitude observations, with limited tropical coverage, and uncertainties in projected wetland inundation contribute substantially to uncertainty in eCH4. Our findings reduce the uncertainty in projected wetland methane–climate feedback and highlight its potential impacts on methane mitigation efforts to slow global warming.
Challenges and opportunities of the full phase-out of fossil fuels under the 1.5 °C goal, Mori et al., Nature Communications
The COP28 decision called for transitioning away from fossil fuels, sparking a growing interest in their full phase-out. However, energy system transformation pathways towards a phase-out of fossil fuels, which may reduce the reliance on carbon dioxide removal to meet the 1.5 °C goal, remain unclear. Here, we employ two global energy system models to explore energy system transformations and the challenges and opportunities associated with attaining a full phase-out of fossil fuels. We found that phasing out fossil fuels by 2050 would require accelerating direct and indirect electrification, involving 1.6–1.8-fold increases in power generation compared to the conventional cost-effective 1.5 °C pathways. This transition from cost-effective to fossil fuel phase-out pathways would increase energy supply investments by up to 34% over this century and require accelerated deployment of solar and wind power, as well as electrolysers. Despite opportunities including lower reliance on carbon dioxide removal and increasing probability of returning to 1.5 °C after temperature overshoot, these additional requirements imply that international society must approach the transition towards zero-fossil energy systems with strong determination.
Scientific authority cues increase the spread of misinformation, Harrando et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Misinformation continues to circulate on social media, often because people unintentionally share posts without verifying their accuracy. We show that references to scientific entities, what we call Scientific Authority Cues, play an important role in this problem. Analyzing 8.7 million posts on Twitter (X), we find that these cues are associated with an increase in sharing, especially when sharing low veracity content, and when users lean politically to the right. A preregistered experiment with U.S. adults shows that attributing claims to scientific entities increases people’s willingness to share them by making claims seem more accurate. These findings reveal an important tension: Signals of scientific authority can also make misinformation more credible and thus easier to spread.
From this week’s government/NGO section:
The AI Climate Hoax: Behind the Curtain of How Big Tech Greenwashes Impacts, Ketan Joshi, Beyond Fossil Fuels, Standearth, Climate Action Against Disinformation et al
The analysis collected the most prominent AI climate claims and determined a) what types of AI were referred to and b) what evidence was presented to back up those claims. The author found that 1. Most claims of climate benefit relate to ‘traditional’ AI, which has a much lower environmental impact than consumer generative AI tools. Even if these benefits are real, they are unrelated to – and dwarfed by – the massive expansion of energy use from the generative AI industry. 2. Where claims of traditional AI climate benefits are made, they tend to rely on weaker forms of evidence, such as corporate websites, rather than published academic research. Only 26% cited published academic research while 36% did not cite any evidence at all. This analysis shows that to bring the deployment of digital services in bounds with the physical limits of the planet, tech companies investing in AI should implement actual sustainability measures rather than masking ever-worsening damage to the climate and environment with vague terms and weak evidence.
Survey: U.S. and Canadian Business Confidence in Climate Action Remains Strong, Melissa Fifield, BMO Climate Institute
The fourth edition of the BMO Climate Institute Business Leaders Survey was conducted in January 2026 and included 741 respondents, including 370 in Canada and 371 in the U.S. Survey respondents include individuals in a senior role at their company (e.g. C-suite, President, Vice-President, Executive Director or General Manager) and who consider themselves to be senior decision makers. Companies range from those with at least five employees to more than 500 employees. Nearly three-quarters (73%) of respondents say they have or are developing plans to address climate-related risks, up from 69% in 2025. Extreme and unpredictable weather is a top concern for business leaders considering the impact of climate-related risks on their companies. Competitive pressure, customer expectations, and regulatory change are expected to drive further climate action. Three?fifths of respondents say AI is already used in daily operations or climate planning. Costs remain the most frequently cited obstacle to developing an effective climate plan.
101 articles in 48 journals by 751 contributing authors
Physical science of climate change, effects
Future changes of upscale ocean kinetic energy transfer under greenhouse warming, Wang et al., npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41612-026-01429-1
Mean State Change-Induced Differential Responses Between Strong Positive and Negative Events Reduce Indian Ocean Dipole Asymmetry Under Greenhouse Warming, Wang et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd045190
Transitions of the Atlantic Ocean circulation, Castellana et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-019-56435-6
Variable Sensitivity of Lake Surface Temperatures to Short- and Long-Term Atmospheric Warming, Chen et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl122409
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
A likely role for stratification in long-term changes of the global ocean tides, Communications Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43247-024-01432-5 15 cites.
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Observations of climate change, effects
2024 global temperature record is consistent with model-predicted warming, Mann et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2600021123
Attribution of Recent Change in the Stratospheric Temperature and Its Application to Future Projection, Li et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl120757
Attribution of UK Temperature Changes to Anthropogenic and Natural Factors, Amos et al., Atmospheric Science Letters Open Access 10.1002/asl2.70040
Nighttime warming amplifies the synergistic effects of snowmelt and rain on floods in arid northwestern China, ZHU et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.05.003
Sustained deoxygenation in global flowing waters under climate warming, Guan et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aef3132
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Steady threefold Arctic amplification of externally forced warming masked by natural variability, Nature Geoscience, 10.1038/s41561-024-01441-1 79 cites.
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Instrumentation & observational methods of climate change, effects
Anthropogenic radionuclides as tracers of climate change in the Pacific Ocean, Povinec et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03639-0
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
GloUTCI-M: a global monthly 1 km Universal Thermal Climate Index dataset from 2000 to 2022, Earth system science data, 10.5194/essd-16-2407-2024 34 cites.
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Modeling, simulation & projection of climate change, effects
Diagnosis of the Contribution of Internal Climate Variability to Global Surface Temperature Projection Under Future Warming, Oh et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl122593
Dual Regimes of North American Heatwaves and Their Future Change, Yeo et al., Weather and Climate Extremes Open Access 10.1016/j.wace.2026.100912
Extreme Climate Events in Morocco: Historical Analysis and Future Projections Based on CMIP6 Simulations, Hakam et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70433
Future Change in the Moist Wave Activity and Its Potential Impact on Local Extreme Precipitation Under a Warming Climate, Xue et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd044844
Future Changes to Rainfall Extremes Over Puerto Rico in a Convection-Permitting Model, Dougherty et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef007833
Projected Evolution of Climatic Aridity in Spain: Robust Signals and Model Uncertainties, Trullenque?Blanco et al., International Journal of Climatology Open Access 10.1002/joc.70316
Quantifying Uncertainty in the Perceived Risk of Unprecedented Rainfall, Sigid et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2026ef008121
Quantifying Very Extreme Precipitation and Temperature Using Huge Ensembles Generated by Machine Learning–Based Climate Model Emulators, Paciorek & Cooley, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-25-0178.1
Robust intensification of projected regional precipitation extremes over Africa, Akinsanola et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-73246-2
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Rising risks of hydroclimatic swings: A large ensemble study of dry and wet spell transitions in North America, Global and Planetary Change, 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2024.104476 21 cites.
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Advancement of climate & climate effects modeling, simulation & projection
Attribution of Recent Change in the Stratospheric Temperature and Its Application to Future Projection, Li et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl120757
Diagnosing Error Sources in Historical CMIP5 and CMIP6 Simulations of Surface Air Temperature and Precipitation, Seo et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2026gl122096
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Why Do CO2 Quadrupling Simulations Warm More Than Twice as Much as CO2 Doubling Simulations in CMIP6?, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2023gl107320 3 cites.
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Cryosphere & climate change
Antarctic ice-shelf basal melt shaped by competing feedbacks, Youngs et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-026-01975-6
How temperature seasonality drives interglacial permafrost dynamics: implications for paleo reconstructions and future thaw trajectories, Nitzbon et al., Climate of the past Open Access 10.5194/cp-22-377-2026
Modeled Greenland Ice Sheet evolution constrained by ice-core-derived Holocene elevation histories, Lauritzen et al., cryosphere Open Access pdf 10.5194/tc-19-3599-2025
Topography-albedo feedback reinforces the transition to a younger Arctic ice pack, Gluckman et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03636-3
Winter seal-based observations reveal glacial meltwater surfacing in the southeastern Amundsen Sea, Zheng et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-021-00111-z
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
CMIP6 Models Rarely Simulate Antarctic Winter Sea?Ice Anomalies as Large as Observed in 2023, Geophysical Research Letters, 10.1029/2024gl109265 34 cites.
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Sea level & climate change
Adapting to sea level rise and storms, Young et al., EGUGA mag:3022614940
Antarctic ice-shelf basal melt shaped by competing feedbacks, Youngs et al., Nature Geoscience 10.1038/s41561-026-01975-6
Future changes in seasonal sea-level variability could reshape coastal ecosystems, Hermans et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02631-y
Projecting extreme sea levels for Northwest Ireland under future climate scenarios, Ahmed et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access 10.3389/fclim.2026.1745732
Sea-level-driven land conversion amplified by coastal agriculture, Molino et al., Nature Sustainability Open Access 10.1038/s41893-026-01835-6
Subpolar North Atlantic heat flux drives projected U.S. East Coast sea-level trend in a climate model, Wang et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03632-7
Subsidence more than doubles sea-level rise today along densely populated coasts, Oelsmann et al., Nature Communications Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41467-026-72293-z
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Establishing flood thresholds for sea level rise impact communication, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-48545-1 20 cites.
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Paleoclimate & paleogeochemistry
Past warming climates promoted expansion of seagrasses to high latitudes, Tuya et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03647-0
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The Temperature of the Deep Ocean Is a Robust Proxy for Global Mean Surface Temperature During the Cenozoic, Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, 10.1029/2023pa004788 16 cites.
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Biology & climate change, related geochemistry
Alpine Grasslands Are Not Moving Upslope Despite Strong Warming Trends Across the Tibetan Plateau, Vanneste, Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70921
Decoding hotter-drought impacts on canopy activity and tree growth to diagnose forest die-off, Camarero et al., Agricultural and Forest Meteorology Open Access 10.1016/j.agrformet.2026.111238
Extensive Alpine Shrubification Revealed by Systematic Resampling Across Europe, Elmendorf & Criado, Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70922
Fresh Phytoplankton Bloom Growth in the Fall and Its Control on Ocean Heating in the Pacific Arctic Region, Gaffey et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans Open Access 10.1029/2025jc022895
Functional Traits Mediate the Interactive Effects of Climate and Human Disturbance on Non-Native Plant Diversity, Liu & Li, Diversity and Distributions Open Access 10.1111/ddi.70180
Increased climatic seasonality promotes coupling between NDVI and tree rings in seasonally dry tropical forests, Aragão et al., Dendrochronologia 10.1016/j.dendro.2026.126533
Limiting future warming reduces drought exposure for terrestrial vertebrates, He et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-73229-3
Macroalgal community transformation during successive marine heatwaves in southern California kelp forests, Michaud et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03599-5
Morphological responses to climate change, Hardiman et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society 10.1002/qj.2258
Neotropical ants are at greater risk from global warming in savanna than in adjacent forest, Zuanon et al., Ecology Open Access 10.1002/ecy.70413
Overwinter Warming Effects of Shrub Expansion in Arctic Permafrost Region, Li et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2026ef008573
Regional dynamics drive differences in future heat stress and reveal where Hawaiian corals are most likely to persist, Feloy et al., Scientific Reports Open Access pdf 10.1038/s41598-026-47781-3
Spatiotemporal Distribution Patterns and Conservation Priorities of Castanopsis eyrei in China Under Climate Change, Xiang et al., Ecology and Evolution Open Access 10.1002/ece3.73681
Warming erodes climate connectivity for terrestrial vertebrates, Wu et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02658-1
Wind stilling shapes grassland water use efficiency by enhancing soil moisture retention, Wu et al., Science Advances Open Access 10.1126/sciadv.aee4995
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Global plant responses to intensified fire regimes, Global Ecology and Biogeography, 10.1111/geb.13858 51 cites.
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GHG sources & sinks, flux, related geochemistry
Autogenic Shoreline Migration and Its Effect on the Storage of Carbon in Marginal Marine Successions, Silvestre et al., AGU Advances Open Access 10.1029/2025av002067
Drivers of Extreme Carbon Sources and Sinks Across Diverse Ecosystems in the Western USA, York et al., Global Change Biology 10.1111/gcb.70926
Emergent constraints on future methane emissions from global wetlands, Zhang et al., Nature Geoscience Open Access 10.1038/s41561-026-01987-2
Global patterns of stabilized soil organic carbon and their potential implications for climate mitigation, LI et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03634-5
Greenhouse Gas Dynamics From Created Wetlands of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia (Canada), Plant et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences 10.1029/2025jg009321
Groundwater depletion contributes to an increase in global carbon emissions, Sun et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-73521-2
Increasing atmospheric dryness and storms accelerates biomass turnover in Amazonian forests, Wu et al., Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02639-4
Inorganic carbon fixation by deep prokaryotes as an unaccounted-for CO2 sink in Antarctic waters, Celussi et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03610-z
Multi-Decadal Dynamics of Wetland Methane Emissions Revealed by Knowledge-Guided Machine Learning, Zhu et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70899
Role of Earth system processes in the relationship between climate change and cumulative carbon emissions, Liddicoat et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-72930-7
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Biodiversity loss reduces global terrestrial carbon storage, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-47872-7 136 cites.
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CO2 capture, sequestration science & engineering
East Asian summer rainfall changes in carbon dioxide removal scenarios simulated by nine Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Comparison Project (CDRMIP) models, DONG et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.05.001
More Pronounced El Niño–like Warming in Boreal Autumn and Winter under CO2 Removal Scenario, Huo et al., Journal of Climate 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0406.1
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Carbon storage through China’s planted forest expansion, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-48546-0 133 cites.
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Decarbonization
A multilayered framework for advancing rapid and cost-effective electric power system decarbonization, Shi et al., PNAS Nexus Open Access 10.1093/pnasnexus/pgag139
Challenges and opportunities of the full phase-out of fossil fuels under the 1.5 °C goal, Mori et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-72841-7
Coal plants persist as a large barrier to the global solar energy transition, Song et al., Nature Sustainability Open Access 10.1038/s41893-026-01836-5
Decarbonizing global steel production, Wang et al., Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 10.1016/j.rser.2022.112367
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Bandgap-universal passivation enables stable perovskite solar cells with low photovoltage loss, Science, 10.1126/science.ado2302 159 cites.
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Geoengineering climate
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Public engagement for inclusive and sustainable governance of climate interventions, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-48510-y 66 cites.
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Aerosols
Large Particle Size and Thick Coating Influence Pyrocumulonimbus Smoke Radiative Forcing and Stratospheric Warming: Insights From the 2019–2020 Australian Megafires, Chen et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl119099
Climate change communications & cognition
Climate Change Communication in Pakistan: Analyzing Media Frames on Social Media Platform, Ali & Ali, Environmental Communication 10.1080/17524032.2026.2674235
Climate change judged more harmful for future generations than for oneself: Cross-cultural evidence from 110 countries, Milfont & Klebl, Journal of Environmental Psychology Open Access 10.1016/j.jenvp.2026.103079
Personal experiences matter for climate action, Wong-Parodi, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02640-x
Scientific authority cues increase the spread of misinformation, Harrando et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2535823123
Understanding and reducing the intention–behaviour gap in climate action, Fielding & Hornsey, Nature Climate Change 10.1038/s41558-026-02630-z
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Eco-anxiety and climate-anxiety linked to indirect exposure: A scoping review of empirical research, Journal of Environmental Psychology, 10.1016/j.jenvp.2024.102326 31 cites.
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Agronomy, animal husbundry, food production & climate change
Continental-Scale Evidence of Farm Management Impacts on Soil Carbon, Helfenstein et al., Global Change Biology Open Access 10.1111/gcb.70913
Field data challenge predictions of universal crop pest proliferation under warming, Lippey et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 10.1073/pnas.2606726123
Funding options for climate change adaptation in forestry: a five-country expert survey in Southern Africa, Nikodemus et al., Frontiers in Forests and Global Change Open Access 10.3389/ffgc.2026.1820808
Global potential of fishery–photovoltaic integration for sustainable energy and climate mitigation, Ding et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03606-9
Sea-level-driven land conversion amplified by coastal agriculture, Molino et al., Nature Sustainability Open Access 10.1038/s41893-026-01835-6
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Effects of alternate wetting and drying irrigation on yield, water-saving, and emission reduction in rice fields: A global meta-analysis, Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 10.1016/j.agrformet.2024.110075 58 cites.
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Hydrology, hydrometeorology & climate change
Accelerated Himalayan river meandering and dynamics due to climate change, Lin et al., Science 10.1126/science.adg8401
Anthropogenic global warming increases the risk of record-breaking extreme precipitation events in low-income countries, Nguyen et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03649-y
Future Change in the Moist Wave Activity and Its Potential Impact on Local Extreme Precipitation Under a Warming Climate, Xue et al., Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 10.1029/2025jd044844
Long-Term Regional Hydroclimate Modeling for Communities and Decision-Makers across Alaska and Northwestern Canada, Newman et al., Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 10.1175/bams-d-24-0131.1
More concentrated precipitation decreases terrestrial water storage, Lesk & Mankin, Nature Open Access 10.1038/s41586-026-10487-7
More unpredictable river floods at the most glacierized Third Pole basin, Liu et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access 10.1038/s43247-026-03623-8
Nighttime warming amplifies the synergistic effects of snowmelt and rain on floods in arid northwestern China, ZHU et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.05.003
Nighttime warming amplifies the synergistic effects of snowmelt and rain on floods in arid northwestern China, ZHU et al., Advances in Climate Change Research Open Access 10.1016/j.accre.2026.05.003
River dynamics in a warming climate, Hollingsworth et al., Canadian Journal of Forest Research 10.1139/x10-094
Robust intensification of projected regional precipitation extremes over Africa, Akinsanola et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-73246-2
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Characteristics and changes of glacial lakes and outburst floods, Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, 10.1038/s43017-024-00554-w 102 cites.
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Climate change economics
Understanding loss and damage in West African climate policies: a comparative analysis of national approaches in five countries, Okunola & Ekoh, Climate Policy Open Access 10.1080/14693062.2026.2675272
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Estimation of useful-stage energy returns on investment for fossil fuels and implications for renewable energy systems, Nature Energy, 10.1038/s41560-024-01518-6 111 cites.
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Climate change and the circular economy
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Economic and carbon emission assessment of compostable plastics as a substitute for petrochemical plastics: a case study in Yunnan Province, Environment Development and Sustainability, 10.1007/s10668-024-05000-x 2 cites.
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Climate change mitigation public policy research
Synergistic action on mitigation and adaptation pilot policies to enhance low-carbon transition of Chinese cities, Zeng, Urban Climate 10.1016/j.uclim.2026.102942
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Systematic review and meta-analysis of ex-post evaluations on the effectiveness of carbon pricing, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-48512-w 123 cites.
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Climate change adaptation & adaptation public policy research
Adapting to sea level rise and storms, Young et al., EGUGA mag:3022614940
Applying a climate information distillation framework to support a climate resilient hydropower sector in Nepal, Oakes et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1789662
Empowering policymakers decision making through navigating IPCC AR6 insights, Tomassi et al., Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100825
Future Changes in Power Grid Exposure to Urban Flooding Over Eastern Coastal China, Luo et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef007502
Indigenous climate mobilities governance: The case of the Vaitupu-Kioa international migration route, Kitara et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104394
Urban heatscapes and environmental injustice: Structural drivers and governance pathways for equitable climate adaptation – A scoping review, Lyra et al., Environmental Science & Policy Open Access 10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104399
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Beyond carbon: Unveiling vulnerabilities of the transportation fuel system for climate resilience, Energy Research & Social Science, 10.1016/j.erss.2024.103585 8 cites.
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Climate change impacts on human health
Accessing sexual and reproductive health services during climate change-related environmental disruptions in coastal Ghana: a privilege or human right for young women with disabilities?, Gbagbo et al., Frontiers in Climate Open Access pdf 10.3389/fclim.2026.1762744
Climate change and social health, Sellers et al., Environmental Health Perspectives Open Access pdf 10.1289/ehp4534
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Severe drought exposure in utero associates to children’s epigenetic age acceleration in a global climate change hot spot, Nature Communications, 10.1038/s41467-024-48426-7 10 cites.
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Climate change & geopolitics
Water in COP processes and future climate action through the Baku water declaration, Antwi, Climate Risk Management Open Access 10.1016/j.crm.2026.100826
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
Conflict mitigation as a means of climate change adaptation: Lessons for policy and development practice, Environment and Security, 10.1177/27538796241246409 7 cites.
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Other
Accounting for Extremes in Modeling the Size and Likelihood of Large Fires in the United States, Asadian et al., Earth s Future Open Access 10.1029/2025ef007485
Climate change exacerbates disparities of energy resilience in New York City, Xu et al., Nature Communications Open Access 10.1038/s41467-026-73247-1
Educational policies can strengthen climate coalitions, Bradley et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access pdf 10.1073/pnas.2533821123
Global and regional climate modes modulate armed conflict risk, Bagwell et al., Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Open Access 10.1073/pnas.2532935123
Regional inequity in top-tier climate change research, Sharma et al., Communications Earth & Environment Open Access pdf 10.1038/s43247-026-03585-x
Revisiting ENSO Regime Shift Around 2000: A Perspective From Recharge Oscillator-Based Linear Inverse Model, Sun et al., Geophysical Research Letters Open Access 10.1029/2025gl121498
“We don’t have other options”: Academic air travel practices in southern Taiwan, Cheng et al., Energy Research & Social Science 10.1016/j.erss.2026.104757
Informed opinion, nudges & major initiatives
Most cited from this section, published 2 years ago:
The 2024 Europe report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: unprecedented warming demands unprecedented action, The Lancet Public Health, 10.1016/s2468-2667(24)00055-0 247 cites.
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Articles/Reports from Agencies and Non-Governmental Organizations Addressing Aspects of Climate Change
The State of Renewable Energy Dashboard, Johanna Neumann and Tony Dutzik, Environment America Research & Policy Center
Wind, solar and geothermal accounted for 21.4% of national retail electricity sales in 2025, a jump from 8% in 2016. South Dakota once again led all states by producing the equivalent of 95% of its retail electricity sales from wind, solar or geothermal. More states than ever – 32 in total – now get 10% or more of their electricity from renewables. South Dakota, Iowa, Wyoming, Kansas and New Mexico were the top five states for total renewable electricity generation as a percentage of retail sales in 2025. America had 77 times as much utility-scale battery storage in 2025 as it did in 2016, with a 58% increase in 2025. There were more than 4.5 million electric vehicles on American roads at the end of 2024 – a 15-fold increase from 2016. America produced enough solar energy to power 36 million homes in 2025 – seven times as much as in 2016, largely thanks to a 28% increase in 2025.
A Reliable Grid for an Electric Future (update), The National Electrical Manufacturers Association
The authors project U.S. electricity demand will rise more than 55% by 2050 – with the steepest growth concentrated in the current decade. Data centers alone are projected to account for 38% of net electricity consumption through 2037, driven by aggressive hyperscaler capital expenditure and the accelerating energy intensity of artificial intelligence workloads. Electric mobility electricity consumption is projected to grow 2,000% through 2050, and electricity’s overall share of final energy delivered is expected to grow from 18% to 28% over the same period.
Climate Change Big Player at FIFA World Cup 2026, World Weather Attribution
The 2026 FIFA World Cup will be played from 11 June to 19 July 2026 across three host countries: the United States of America (USA), Canada, and Mexico, with matches spread over 16 cities and the final to be held in New York on the 19th of July. In this study we approximate wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) using temperature and humidity – which means results apply best to a sheltered and shaded area, without the heating effect of direct sunlight or the cooling effect of wind. Guidance from the global players’ union (FIFPRO) recommends that when WBGT reaches 26°C or higher, heat strain becomes a real risk and therefore matches must include cooling breaks. At 28°C WBGT and above, FIFPRO says it is unsafe for play and postponement is advised. This contrasts with current governing body regulations for the FIFA World Cup, which only consider postponement at WBGT levels exceeding 32°C, indicating a far higher threshold for intervention under official rules. Using a statistical model applied to observations the authors say that in this year’s World Cup 26 games would be expected to take place in conditions of at least 26°C WBGT, of which 9 are in stadiums without cooling. In 1994 it was expected that 21 games occurred under these conditions, and only 6 without cooling.
The Geothermal Supply Chain Is America’s to Gain — or Lose, Feshback et al., RMI
Next-generation geothermal energy shows growing promise as a source of firm, reliable power. Investment in the sector has grown a hundredfold in seven years from $22 million in 2018 to $2.2 billion in 2025; pilot projects are successfully delivering electricity; and the first phase of a large-scale commercial plant, a 500 MW project in Utah, will come online this year. A growing body of evidence suggests that the geothermal opportunity is particularly large for the United States, which holds the world’s largest technical resource and much of the expertise needed to unlock it. There is growing recognition that, at least in the United States, the sector’s long-term viability depends heavily on progress achieved through the early 2030s, technology transfer from oil and gas, and equipment standardization. These factors make understanding supply-chain readiness, both domestic and global, crucial.
ELECTROTECH MONEYBALL: An Industrial Strategy for Ranking Risk and Opportunity in Energy & AI Supply Chains, Benich et al., Carnegie Mellon Institute for Strategy & Technology
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) dominates much of what many experts call the “electrotech stack”—the integrated set of hardware and software components central to this buildout that are transforming electricity from a physical flow into something that also can be digitally generated, stored, and directed. That dependence is not only creating a supply vulnerability, but also threatening to undermine the very security advantages that a modernized grid is supposed to deliver.
Germany’s battery opportunity, Petrovich et al., Ember
A long-awaited package will determine whether Germany’s electricity backup power is secured entirely by new fossil gas power plants or whether clean flexibility solutions, such as batteries, are allowed to compete on an equal footing. Germany has a strong grid-scale battery pipeline, but the lack of an ambitious clean flexibility strategy and the preferential treatment of gas in forthcoming auctions risk slowing deployment, causing the country to forego the benefits of batteries and remain locked into gas import dependency for decades.
Role of Climate Change on Infectious Diseases, Almagro-Moreno et al., American Society for Microbiology and the American Geophysical Union
Anthropogenic climate change is a fundamental threat to human health. Altered temperature and precipitation levels, sea level rise and more frequent and intense weather and climate events associated with climate change can negatively affect human health and health systems, especially with respect to infectious diseases. These changes impact the ecology, evolution, distribution and prevalence of infectious disease reservoirs, hosts, vectors and pathogens in ways that lead to the emergence of disease. Understanding and quantifying the relationship between climate change and infectious diseases are crucial for informing mitigation and adaptation strategies that strengthen public health responses. The report is based on the deliberations of experts in epidemiology, microbial ecology and evolution, infectious diseases and climate science who participated in a colloquium on Oct. 9-10, 2025, organized by the American Academy of Microbiology, the honorific leadership group and think tank within ASM, and the American Geophysical Union (AGU). These experts came from diverse disciplines and sectors to articulate opportunities to build on climate, microbial and attribution science to promote proactive public health preparedness and response. The participants highlighted the need for long-term attribution studies, proactive workforce training, development of novel diagnostics and treatments, and improved surveillance systems so that health systems are capable of rapidly responding to a changing infectious disease landscape.
Impacts of Large Loads on Electricity Rates: A Primer, Lam et al., Energy Systems Integration Group and Brattle
The authors identify five key determinants that most often drive whether large load additions increase or decrease rates for existing customers. These determinants are (1) when sufficient available capacity exists, a new large customer can be served with minimal incremental capital investment; rates for existing customers fall when revenue from new large customers exceeds the incremental infrastructure cost, and rise when it does not; new large loads can increase capacity prices in tight markets, with customers without long-term price protection bearing the impact; existing customers may bear the cost of underused or stranded assets if expected large load growth does not materialize; and requirements such as take-or-pay, minimum bills, contribution-in-aid-of-construction, reservation charges, collateral, and exit fees can reduce cost shifts and stranded-cost risk.
The State of Clean Energy Manufacturing in Q1 2026, Tom Taylor and Katherine Shok, Atlas Public Policy
In Q1 2026, manufacturers canceled four facilities, resulting in a loss of $1.4 billion in previously announced investment. Several facilities announced pauses in manufacturing resulting in reductions in labor demand that contributed to a loss of almost 8,100 jobs. However, across 12 states, 12 companies announced $2.5 billion in investment and 2,200 jobs tied to 21 projects. Altogether, companies announced a net $1.1 billion increase in investment and net loss of 5,900 jobs in Q1 2026. Electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers continue to face challenges. EVs have seen the greatest proportion of canceled investments at 15 percent of announced investments, followed by batteries (12 percent).
A world on the edge. Priorities for a pandemic-resilient future, Global Preparedness Monitoring Board
The authors found that as infectious disease outbreaks become more frequent they are also becoming more damaging, with widening health, economic, political and social impacts, and less capacity to recover from them. This report uses the GPMB Monitoring Framework to assess how the impacts of the six new Public Health Emergencies of International Concern (PHEICs) of the past decade have evolved and identifies the areas where they are now most acute. To rebuild trust and advance equity, the world requires independent pandemic risk monitoring, equitable access to countermeasures, and sustainable financing, enabled by sustained political attention.
Full assessment. 2026 National Climate Change Risk Assessment for Aotearoa New Zealand, He Pou a Rangi Climate Change Commission
The authors of the assessment identify the most significant risks to Aotearoa New Zealand’s economy, society, environment, and ecology. They assess the nature of the risks, their severity, and the need for coordinated actions to respond to them. This will help inform the government’s next national adaptation plan, due in 2028.
A Plan for American Electricity Affordability, Center for American Progress
The authors propose an American Electricity Affordability Plan to expand the supply of energy by building more capacity to generate electricity and by building better grid infrastructure to ensure the American people can afford to heat and cool their homes. This includes major reforms to break down permitting and siting barriers that obstruct or slow good decision-making, boost public and private investment, and realign incentives for utilities to build the most cost-effective projects rather than the costliest. Three new policy approaches are needed including (1) a program to expand supply by building a better, bigger power system, including reforms to accelerate permitting of new transmission and generation capacity, align utility incentives for lowering costs, and make public investments in manufacturing and construction of both clean energy and grid infrastructure; (2) a rate relief fund to provide public funding for cost-effective electricity system improvements to states that choose to freeze or lower residential electricity rates for four years, immediately taking the cost pressure off households while the better, bigger power system is built; and (3) a national AI data center fair share policy that sets standard rules for all data centers to pay their fair share of the costs of the energy and grid infrastructure they impose on the electricity system and makes sure residential consumers do not foot the bill while avoiding creating an incentive for data centers to be built off-grid.
2026 Summer Reliability Assessment (Final), The North American Electric Reliability Corporation
The 2026 Summer Reliability Assessment (SRA) identifies, assesses, and reports on areas of concern regarding the reliability of the North American bulk power system (BPS) for the upcoming summer season. In addition, the SRA presents peak electricity demand and supply changes and highlights any unique regional challenges or expected conditions that might affect the reliability of the BPS. As electricity demand continues to rise and the resource mix changes, the North American grid is being called on to adapt in real time. The 2026 Summer Reliability Assessment finds that record resource additions have strengthened readiness for the summer season, even as elevated risks remain in some areas.
Global Status Report for Buildings and Construction 2025-2026, UNEP and the Global Alliance for Buildings and Construction, United Nations Environment Programme
The authors review the status of construction/building policies, finance, technologies and solutions to monitor alignment with the Paris Agreement goals. The authors benchmark progress through the Global Buildings Climate Tracker across emissions, building energy codes, renewable energy, green building certification, and investment in energy efficiency, covering climate resilience, housing affordability, and the 2050 Buildings Breakthrough and Déclaration de Chaillot. Despite a decade of progress, the sector remains off track, accounting for 37 per cent of global emissions and nearly 50 per cent of global material extraction, as decarbonization stalls and construction outpaces climate action.
Survey: U.S. and Canadian Business Confidence in Climate Action Remains Strong, Melissa Fifield, BMO Climate Institute
The fourth edition of the BMO Climate Institute Business Leaders Survey was conducted in January 2026 and included 741 respondents, including 370 in Canada and 371 in the U.S. Survey respondents include individuals in a senior role at their company (e.g. C-suite, President, Vice-President, Executive Director or General Manager) and who consider themselves to be senior decision makers. Companies range from those with at least five employees to more than 500 employees. Nearly three-quarters (73%) of respondents say they have or are developing plans to address climate-related risks, up from 69% in 2025. Extreme and unpredictable weather is a top concern for business leaders considering the impact of climate-related risks on their companies. Competitive pressure, customer expectations, and regulatory change are expected to drive further climate action. Three?fifths of respondents say AI is already used in daily operations or climate planning. Costs remain the most frequently cited obstacle to developing an effective climate plan.
The AI Climate Hoax: Behind the Curtain of How Big Tech Greenwashes Impacts, Ketan Joshi, Beyond Fossil Fuels, Standearth, Climate Action Against Disinformation et al
The analysis collected the most prominent AI climate claims and determined a) what types of AI were referred to and b) what evidence was presented to back up those claims. The author found that 1. Most claims of climate benefit relate to ‘traditional’ AI, which has a much lower environmental impact than consumer generative AI tools. Even if these benefits are real, they are unrelated to – and dwarfed by – the massive expansion of energy use from the generative AI industry. 2. Where claims of traditional AI climate benefits are made, they tend to rely on weaker forms of evidence, such as corporate websites, rather than published academic research. Only 26% cited published academic research while 36% did not cite any evidence at all. This analysis shows that to bring the deployment of digital services in bounds with the physical limits of the planet, tech companies investing in AI should implement actual sustainability measures rather than masking ever-worsening damage to the climate and environment with vague terms and weak evidence.
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